Asia London NY Probability Map [ES/NQ] Session StatisticsA data-driven probability overlay built on 2,800+ days of NQ and ES session data (2015–2025). This indicator classifies the current day into one of 72 unique market contexts based on Asia range, London open location, London sweep behavior, and NY open position — then displays the historical probabilities for that exact setup.
Unlike typical session indicators that only draw boxes, this tool answers the question every NY session trader actually asks: "Given what Asia and London have already done today — what is statistically likely to happen next?"
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█ HOW IT WORKS
The indicator operates in three phases:
1 — Session Detection
Automatically detects Asia (20:00–02:00 ET), London (02:00–08:00 ET), and NY (08:00–16:00 ET) sessions. Session boxes are drawn on the chart with customizable colors and transparency.
2 — Context Classification
At NY open, the indicator classifies the day across 4 axes:
Asia Range — Below or Above average (rolling 14-session average, adapts to current volatility)
London Open vs Asia — Below, Near, or Above Asia midpoint (±15% threshold)
London Sweep — No sweep, Swept High only, Swept Low only, or Both
NY Open vs London — Below, Near, or Above London midpoint (±15% threshold)
This produces 2 × 3 × 4 × 3 = 72 distinct contexts. Each context maps to a pre-calculated set of statistics drawn from the full dataset.
3 — Probability Display
Once the context is identified, the indicator displays the relevant statistics through a comprehensive panel and chart overlay.
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█ PANEL SECTIONS
The information panel contains 6 toggleable sections:
SETUP
Shows the current context classification, sample size, and a confidence grade (A+ through D) based on directional clarity, sample reliability, hit rate confirmation, and sweep-both risk.
PREDICTION
Hit High First / Hit Low First — directional probability
Sweep Both — probability that price hits both London High and Low
Median Time — median minutes to first level touch
Fail H→L / Fail L→H — reversal failure rates
HIT RATES
Independent probabilities of price reaching each key level during the NY window:
London High / London Low
Asia High / Asia Low
PENETRATION TARGETS
After a level break, how far does price typically travel beyond? Shows Median and 75th percentile penetration distances in points for both upside and downside.
RANGE INFO
Today's Asia and London ranges with their historical percentile ranking (e.g., "95th" means today's range is larger than 95% of historical days).
LIVE STATUS
Real-time tracking of: first sweep direction, sweep-both status, and actual penetration distances. Updates as NY session progresses.
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█ CHART OVERLAY
Session Boxes
Subtle outline boxes for Asia (orange), London (blue), and NY (green) with centered labels. Non-intrusive design that doesn't obscure price action.
Key Levels
London High / Low — solid lines with context-specific hit rate percentages
London Mid — dotted reference line
Asia High / Low — dashed lines with hit rate percentages
Checkmarks (✓) appear next to each level as price reaches it during the NY session
Penetration Targets
Dynamic dotted lines that appear only after a level break, showing the Median and P75 expected penetration distances above London High or below London Low.
Bias Arrow
A directional indicator (▲ or ▼) showing the dominant probability with percentage. Positioned near the relevant London level for quick visual reference.
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█ CONFIDENCE GRADING
Each context receives a score (0–100) and letter grade based on:
Directional Clarity (30 pts) — How skewed is the Hit High First / Hit Low First split
Sample Size (25 pts) — Larger samples = more reliable statistics
Hit Rate Confirmation (25 pts) — Do the level hit rates align with the directional bias
Sweep-Both Risk (20 pts) — Lower sweep-both probability = cleaner setups
Grades: A+ (80+), A (65+), B (50+), C (35+), D (below 35)
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█ INSTRUMENTS & WINDOWS
Symbols: NQ (Nasdaq futures) and ES (S&P 500 futures)
Windows: AM (8:00–12:00), PM (12:00–16:00), or Full (8:00–16:00)
Select your instrument and time window via the dropdown inputs. All statistics update automatically — each of the 6 configurations has its own embedded dataset.
Sample sizes:
NQ AM: 2,839 days | NQ PM: 982 days | NQ Full: 2,839 days
ES AM: 2,692 days | ES PM: 1,036 days | ES Full: 2,692 days
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█ SETTINGS
All visual elements are independently toggleable:
Show/hide Statistics Panel, Key Levels, Session Boxes, Penetration Targets, Bias Arrow
Customize colors for all session boxes and level lines
Adjust label sizes (tiny / small / normal)
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█ ALERTS
Three built-in alerts:
Broke London High — price exceeds London session high
Broke London Low — price breaks below London session low
Sweep Both Sides — price has now touched both London High and Low
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█ METHODOLOGY & DATA
All statistics are pre-calculated from historical tick-level session data and embedded directly in the Pine Script as arrays. No external data feeds or API calls — everything runs natively on TradingView.
The context classification methodology uses fixed thresholds (±15% of range for open location) applied consistently across the entire dataset. The Asia Range classification uses a rolling 14-session average rather than a fixed historical median — this adapts to current market volatility, making the "Below/Above Average" determination relevant to recent conditions rather than a decade-old baseline. Hit rates use inclusive operators (≥ / ≤) for level touches.
Note that some contexts have smaller sample sizes (under 40 days). The confidence grading system accounts for this — lower-sample contexts receive lower grades. Always consider the sample size when interpreting probabilities.
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█ LIMITATIONS
Designed specifically for NQ and ES futures — other instruments are not supported
Best used on 1–5 minute timeframes during active session hours
Historical probabilities are not guarantees of future outcomes
Context windows with small sample sizes (shown in panel) should be interpreted with caution
Data covers 2015–2025; market regime changes may affect relevance of older data
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█ DISCLAIMER
This indicator is a statistical research tool, not a trading signal generator. It provides historical context to support your own analysis and decision-making. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.
Indicador Pine Script®






















