Fundamental Analysis [TrendX_]__________xXx__________ INTRODUCTION __________xXx__________
Fundamental Analysis indicator employs a two-pronged approach to estimate the fair value of a security. This utilizes both relative valuation and intrinsic valuation methods, aiming to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the company's worth.
__________xXx__________ FEATURES AND USAGES __________xXx__________
1 - RELATIVE VALUATION:
Relative valuation takes a company's average financial ratios over a specific number of periods into account.
Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio): This metric compares the company's current stock price to its earnings per share. A higher PE ratio indicates investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings, potentially suggesting a growth expectation.
Price-to-Book Ratio (PB Ratio): This metric compares the company's current stock price to its book value per share. A higher PB ratio suggests the market values the company's assets more highly than their accounting book value.
Modified-PE-PB-Growth: This is the modified version for the PE and PB forward. Apply the company's average historical ROE growth rate to PE ratio. Similarly, apply the company's projected ROA growth rate to the industry average PB ratio to arrive at an adjusted PB ratio.
Enterprise Value (EV)/Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) Multiple: This metric compares the company's enterprise value (market capitalization + debt - cash) to its EBITDA. It provides a valuation measure that considers the company's capital structure.
2 - INTRINSIC VALUATION:
Intrinsic valuation attempts to estimate the inherent value of a company based on its future cash flow generation potential. This approach focuses on the company's long-term fundamentals rather than its current market price.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): This method discounts the company's projected future free cash flows to their present value. It requires forecasting future cash flows, a discount rate, and a terminal growth rate. The present value of these future cash flows represents the company's intrinsic value.
Dividend Discount Model (DDM): This method assumes the company's value is based on its ability to distribute future dividends to shareholders. It discounts the company's expected future dividends to their present value, providing another estimate of intrinsic value.
Graham Number: Developed by Benjamin Graham, this method utilizes a formula based on a company's earnings per share and book value per share to estimate its intrinsic value. The number 22.5, embedded within this formula, serves as a normalization factor, embodying an ‘ideal’ PE of 15 and PB of 1.5. This approach provides a conservative estimate of a company’s intrinsic value, offering a safety margin for investors.
Net-Nets: Net-Nets refer to micro-to-small companies trading at a price less than 67% of their net current asset value, which is calculated by subtracting current liabilities from current assets. This conservative approach, deeply rooted in the principles of value investing, essentially implies that these companies are undervalued to the extent that their market price is less than their liquidation value.
*** The color of each valuation toolkit’s background is determined UNDERVALUE (above current price) in Turquoise Green color and OVERVALUE (below acceptable rate) in Pink color.
3 - FINANCIAL METRICS
The financial metrics will provide a holistic view of company's financial health, efficiency, risk profile, and growth prospects
Efficiency Metrics:
Net Margin: This metric measures the percentage of each dollar of revenue remaining as profit after accounting for all operating expenses. A higher net margin indicates a company's efficiency in converting sales into profit.
Dividend Yield: This metric represents the annual dividend payment per share divided by the current stock price. It reflects the portion of a company's earnings distributed to shareholders as dividends. A higher dividend yield suggests a focus on shareholder returns.
Fraud Detection Metrics:
Beneish M-score (M-score): This metric is a statistical model used to identify potential accounting manipulations. A higher M-score indicates a greater likelihood of fraudulent activity. It's crucial to analyze the M-score along with other financial information.
Profitability and Growth Metrics:
Piotroski F-score (F-score): This metric assesses a company's financial health and profitability based on nine criteria. A higher F-score suggests a more robust and potentially higher-growth company.
Quick Ratio: This metric measures a company's ability to meet its short-term obligations (due within a year) using its most liquid assets (cash and equivalents, marketable securities, and accounts receivable). A higher quick ratio indicates a stronger short-term liquidity position.
Inventory Ratio: This metric measures how long it takes a company to sell its inventory on average. A lower inventory ratio suggests efficient inventory management and potentially lower holding costs.
Risk Metrics:
Risk-Free Rate (Risk-Free): This metric represents the theoretical rate of return on a risk-free investment, often approximated by the 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate. It serves as a benchmark for evaluating the return required for riskier assets like stocks.
Beta: This metric measures a stock's volatility relative to the overall market (often represented by its market index). A beta of 1 indicates the stock's price movement mirrors the market. A beta greater than 1 suggests the stock is more volatile than the market, and vice versa.
Growth Metrics:
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): This model estimates the expected return on a stock based on its beta, the risk-free rate, and the market risk premium. CAPM helps determine if a stock is potentially overvalued or undervalued.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): This metric represents the average cost of capital a company uses to finance its operations (equity and debt). A lower WACC suggests a company can access capital at a cheaper rate, potentially leading to higher profitability.
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR): This metric calculates the average annual growth rate of a stock price over a specific period. It provides an indication of the historical price appreciation.
Additional:
Sustainable Growth Rate (Growth const.): This metric estimates the maximum long-term growth rate a company can sustain based on its internal resources (retained earnings) and industry growth.
Value at Risk (VaR): This metric estimates the maximum potential loss a stock price might experience over a given timeframe with a certain confidence level. It helps assess the downside risk associated with an investment.
*** The color of each metric’s background is determined above acceptable rate in Turquoise Green color and below acceptable rate in Pink color
__________xXx__________ CONCLUSION__________xXx__________
Fundamental analysis plays a critical role in empowering both investors and traders to navigate the dynamic stock markets. By delving deeper into a company's underlying financial health, future prospects, and competitive landscape, this approach fosters informed decision-making that leads to risk reduction and profit optimization. The Fundamental Analysis can serve as a cornerstone for investors and traders alike, offering a myriad of benefits.
For investors, it is instrumental in risk reduction, as it enables the assessment of a company’s fair value through financial statements, competitive advantages, and growth potential. This critical evaluation aids in avoiding overvalued stocks and spotting undervalued opportunities. Moreover, it fosters a long-term focus, steering investors towards decisions that reflect a company’s long-term prospects, thus supporting a buy-and-hold strategy that resonates with enduring investment objectives. Additionally, a profound comprehension of a company’s fundamentals bolsters investor confidence, ensuring that investment choices are grounded in solid data rather than speculative market noise.
Traders, on the other hand, can leverage fundamental analysis to pinpoint short-term opportunities by staying abreast of a company’s imminent catalysts such as financial health, efficiency, risk profile, or growth prospects. This knowledge allows them to anticipate market movements and seize fleeting chances for profit. It also provides informed insights for establishing entry and exit points, identifying companies poised for robust growth or those facing potential downturns, which is crucial for strategizing trades, including short selling. Importantly, by concentrating on fundamental data, traders can mitigate emotional decision-making, fostering a disciplined approach to trading that curtails the risks associated with impulsive, emotion-driven errors.
__________xXx__________ DISCLAIMER__________xXx__________
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Numerous factors and inherent uncertainties can influence the outcome of any endeavor, and predicting future events with certainty is impossible.
Trading and Investing inherently carries risk, and the majority of traders experience losses. This indicator is provided solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
Therefore, always exercise caution and independent judgment when making investment decisions based on any form of past performance analysis, including this indicator's results.
Forecasting
Fibonacci Archer Box [ChartPrime]Fibonacci Archer Box (ChartPrime) is a full featured Fibonacci box indicator that automatically plots based on pivot points. This indicator plots retracement levels, time lines, fan lines, and angles. Each one of these features are fully customizable with the ability to disable individual features. A unique aspect to this implementation is the ability to set targets based on retracement levels and time zones. This is set to 0.618 by default but you can pick any Fibonacci zone you like. Also included are markings that show you when Fibonacci levels are met or exceeded. These moments are plotted on the chart as colored dots that can be enabled or disabled. Along with these markings are crosses that can be shown when targets are hit. Both of these markings are colored with the related Fibonacci level colors.
When there is a zig-zag, this indicator will test to see if the zig-zag meets the criteria set up by the user before plotting a new Fibonacci box. You can pick from either higher highs or lower highs for bearish patterns, and higher lows or lower lows for bullish patterns. Both patterns can be set to use both when finding new boxes if you want to make it more sensitive. You also have the option to filter based on minimum and maximum size. If the box isn't within the selected size range, it will simply be ignored. The pivot levels can be configured to use either candle wicks or candle bodies. By default this is configured to use candle wick with a lookforward of 5 and lookback of 10.
We have included alerts for Fibonacci level crosses, Fibonacci time crosses, and target hits. All alerts are found in the add alert section built into tradingview to make alert creation as easy as possible. Each alert is labeled with their correct names to make navigation simple.
W.D. Gann, a renowned figure in the world of trading and market analysis, is often questioned for his use of Fibonacci levels in his strategies. However, evidence points to the fact that Gann did not directly employ Fibonacci price levels in his work. Instead, Gann had his unique approach, dividing price ranges into thirds, eighths, and other fractions, which, although somewhat aligning with Fibonacci levels, are not exact matches. It is clear that Gann was familiar with Fibonacci and the golden ratio, as references to them appear in his recommended reading list and some of his writings. Despite this awareness, Gann chose not to incorporate Fibonacci levels explicitly in his methodologies, preferring instead to use his divisions of price and time. Notably, Gann's emphasis on the 50% level—a marker not associated with Fibonacci numbers—further illustrates his departure from Fibonacci usage. This level, despite its popularity among some Fibonacci enthusiasts, does not stem from Fibonacci's sequence. This is why we opted to call this indicator Fibonacci Archer Box instead of a Gann Box as we didn't feel like it was appropriate.
In summary, the Fibonacci Archer Box (ChartPrime) is a tool that incorporates Fibonacci retracements and projections with an automated pivot point-based plotting system. It allows for customization across various features including retracement levels, timelines, fan lines, and angles, and integrates visual cues for level crosses and target hits. While it acknowledges the methodologies of W.D. Gann, it distinctively utilizes Fibonacci techniques, providing a straightforward tool for market analysis. We hope you enjoy using this indicator as much as we enjoyed making it!
Enjoy
Seasonality ForecastThe Seasonality Forecast indicator equips TradingView users with a detailed analysis of seasonal price trends, utilizing historical data across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By calculating average price movements over selectable periods up to 10 years, it overlays a seasonal chart on the price chart to elucidate potential trends.
Operational Mechanics
Historical Data Analysis: The indicator processes historical data, calculating average price changes from one bar to the next. This forms the basis of the seasonal chart, offering insights into long-term price movements.
Seasonal Chart Overlay: Adjustments are made to ensure the seasonal chart aligns with the price chart in height, providing a unified view. The de-trending process standardizes each year's data, facilitating direct comparison across time without the influence of overarching price trends.
Customization and Methodology
User Inputs: Traders can tailor the analysis with settings for the lookback period, future projection, and smoothing, aligning the tool with diverse trading strategies.
De-trending and Smoothing: The de-trending method isolates cyclical patterns by removing linear trends, while smoothing techniques reduce data noise, sharpening the focus on meaningful trends.
Pivot Point Analysis: It uses algorithms for detecting pivot points based on historical price actions, signaling potential market turns. This analytical method is crucial for identifying shifts that may indicate future market directions.
Technical Foundations
The Seasonality Forecast indicator leverages known financial analysis techniques to enhance its effectiveness:
Time Series Analysis: Fundamental to the indicator's operation is time series analysis, particularly focusing on cyclical patterns within market data. This approach underpins the seasonal trend analysis, offering a structured view of historical price behavior.
Statistical Smoothing: Smoothing methods, such as moving averages, are applied to the seasonal data to clarify trends by mitigating volatility and short-term fluctuations, making underlying patterns more apparent.
Technical Analysis for Pivot Points: The calculation of pivot points draws on principles of technical analysis, identifying areas where the market's direction has historically shown a tendency to change. This aspect of the tool is instrumental in forecasting potential market movements.
Practical Application
This indicator is invaluable for traders aiming to leverage historical market performance in their analysis, enabling:
Strategic planning based on seasonal patterns, enhancing entry and exit decisions.
Adjusted risk management strategies in anticipation of seasonal volatility.
Identification of potential trend reversals or continuations at pivotal moments in the market cycle.
By integrating historical analysis with technical insights, the Seasonality Forecast indicator provides a nuanced tool for traders looking to deepen their market analysis and refine their trading strategies with a historical perspective.
Sector ETF macro trendThe Sector ETF Macro Trend indicator is designed for technical analysis of broad economic trends through sector-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It uses logarithmic price transformation, linear regression, and volatility analysis to examine sector trends and stability, providing a technical basis for analytical assessment.
Core Analysis Techniques
Logarithmic Transformation and Regression: Converts ETF closing prices logarithmically to reveal sector growth patterns and dynamics. Linear regression on these prices defines the main trend direction, essential for trend analysis.
Volatility Bands for Market State Assessment: Applies standard deviation on logarithmic prices to create dynamic bands around the trendline, identifying overbought or oversold sector conditions by marking deviations from the central trend.
Sector-Specific Analysis: Selection among different sector ETFs allows for precise examination of sectors like technology, healthcare, and financials, enabling focused insights into specific market segments.
Adaptability and Insight
Customizable Parameters: Offers flexibility in modifying regression length and smoothing factors to accommodate various analysis strategies and risk preferences.
Trend Direction and Momentum: Evaluates the ETF's trajectory against historical data and volatility bands to determine sector trend strength and direction, aiding in the prediction of market shifts.
Strategic Application
Without providing explicit trading signals, the indicator focuses on trend and volatility analysis for a strategic view on sector investments. It supports:
Identifying macroeconomic trends through ETF performance analysis.
Informing portfolio decisions with insights into sector momentum and stability.
Forecasting market movements by analyzing overbought or oversold conditions against the ETF price movement and volatility bands.
The Sector ETF Macro Trend indicator serves as a technical tool for analyzing sector-level market trends, offering detailed insights into the dynamics of economic sectors for thorough market analysis.
Wiseball RSI Super Advanced Divergences | EssentialThis indicator is a cutting-edge tool designed to elevate your trading strategy by identifying both regular and hidden RSI divergences with unparalleled precision. Moreover, this indicator uniquely offers the capability to visualize divergences as they are forming ("anticipated"), a feature that stands out for its originality and innovation.
Unique Features and How They Work:
This tool distinguishes itself by leveraging its Divergences Detection System (DDS), which incorporates advanced algorithms to analyze market movements and oscillator behavior beyond the capabilities of existing open-source scripts. Here's a brief overview of what makes DDS uniquely effective:
Anticipated and Projected Divergences: DDS goes beyond mere detection of existing divergences. It offers insights into divergences that are currently forming and even projects potential future divergences by analyzing current trends and oscillator levels. This forward-looking feature empowers traders to anticipate market movements, offering a strategic advantage.
Comprehensive Pivot Analysis: Unlike typical divergence indicators, such as the "RSI Divergence Indicator," which only identifies divergences between two consecutive pivots, DDS is engineered to analyze as many previous pivots as the user's configuration allows (duration min/max). This capability ensures that no potential trend or extended divergence is overlooked, providing a more thorough market analysis.
Multiple Divergences Detection: Our system is capable of detecting multiple divergences within the same timeframe. For instance, it can identify a significant bearish divergence alongside a minor bullish divergence, offering a nuanced view of market dynamics that other indicators might miss.
Extensive Customization Options: DDS provides an array of configuration settings, allowing traders to tailor the detection system to their specific needs. Whether adjusting for sensitivity, timeframes, or specific divergence types, these customization options ensure that the tool can adapt to various trading strategies and preferences.
Our commitment to continuous development means that we regularly update the script based on user feedback, ensuring that it remains at the forefront of trading technology.
How to Use This Script:
Setup: Search for "Wiseball RSI Super Advanced Divergences" in the TradingView indicator library. Easily add the script to your TradingView chart and adjust the settings according to your trading preferences.
Analysis: The script automatically identifies divergences and highlights them on your chart, using color-coded lines and patterns for easy interpretation.
Action: Customize alerts to notify you of new divergences, enabling timely trading decisions based on the script's analysis.
Note: This indicator is best used on a dark background, as it has been optimized for this.
Divergence Style Coding:
Bullish Regular Divergence: Green
Bullish Hidden Divergence: Blue
Bearish Regular Divergence: Red
Bearish Hidden Divergence: Orange
Confirmed Divergence: Solid opaque line
Anticipated Divergence: Dotted line in the type's color
Projected Divergence: Dashed line in the type's color
Understand Technical and practical limitations:
This indicator is designed to facilitate ease of use, correspond to standard practices, and cover your essential needs. DDS options are limited to the essentials for simplicity and ease of use. Moreover, these limitations allow for reduced calculation time and a smooth display.
It is limited to displaying 100 divergences, and the number of bars analyzed is fixed at 960. Use the replay mode to view past divergences.
Divergences sharing the same endpoint are limited to the divergence with the longest duration.
Divergences of the same type that cross or share the same time space are filtered to display only one.
The maximum duration of divergences is set to 120 bars.
Anticipated divergences but not projected ones.
Note: As with all trading tools, it's crucial to use this indicator in conjunction with other indicators and fundamental analysis to validate your trading decisions. Our tools are designed to provide you with valuable insights, not to predict the future. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
Historical Price Projection [LuxAlgo]The Historical Price Projection tool aims to project future price behavior based on historical price behavior plus a user defined growth factor.
The main feature of this tool is to plot a future price forecast with a surrounding area that exactly matches the price behavior of the selected period, with or without added drift.
Other features of the tool include:
User-selected period up to 500 bars anywhere on the chart within 5000 bars
User selected growth factor from 0 (no growth) to 100, this is the percentage of drift to be used in the forecast.
User selected area wide
Show/hide forecast area
🔶 USAGE
This tool generates a price projection with exactly the same price behavior over the period selected by the user, plus a growth factor .
The user must confirm the selection of the anchor point in order for the tool to be executed; this can be done directly on the chart by clicking on any bar, or via the date field in the settings panel.
As we can see on this chart, the four phases of the market cycle are clearly defined and marked, so we choose the distribution phase as our anchor point because in our analysis, we want to see how the market would behave if we were currently at the same point in the cycle.
In the image above, the growth factor parameter is set to 0 so that the projection matches the selection. The tool will use up to 500 bars after the selection point.
The growth factor is defined as the percentage of drift that the tool will use.
Drift is defined as follows:
For periods with a positive return: average negative return within the period
For negative return periods: average positive return within the period
On the chart above, we have selected the same period but added a growth factor of 10, so that the tool uses a 10% drift in its calculations of future prices.
As the return in the selected period is negative, the added drift will make the projection more bearish than the prices from the selection.
On this chart we have changed the selected period, we have chosen the accumulation phase of the last cycle as the anchor point, again with a growth factor of 10%.
As we can see, prices explode higher, making the projection very bullish, as the added effect of both the bullish selected period and the 10% drift is taken into account.
This last chart is a long-term chart, a quarterly chart of the Dow, and it will serve as a review exercise.
What if... everything goes south and the crash of '29 is repeated?
The answer is in the chart, and it is not for the faint of heart
In this case we have chosen a growth factor of 0 to see exactly the same price behaviour projected into the future.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Data Gathering
Anchor point: Starting point for data collection, up to 500 bars will be used.
🔹 Data Transformation
Growth Factor: Values from 0 to 100, is the amount of drift used to calculate the next price in the series.
Area Width: Values from 0 to 100, controls the width of the area around the forecast as an increment/decrement of the growth factor.
🔹 Style
Price line width: Size of the price line.
Bullish color
Bearish color
Show Area: Show forecast area.
Area color
BTC/USD Inflation priced in! ~Period 2009 - 2023 (by TAS)The script creates a custom indicator titled "BTC Adjusted for Economic Factors.
Adjusted BTC Price is plotted in red, making it more prominent. The adjusted price is Bitcoin's historical closing prices adjusted for cumulative inflation over time, based on the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rates from 2009 onwards.
The script calculates the adjusted price of Bitcoin by taking into account the effect of inflation on its value. It uses annual CPI rates for each year from 2009 to 2022 to calculate a cumulative inflation factor. The script assumes a placeholder inflation rate of 2.5% for 2023, indicating that this value should be updated when the actual rate is available. The script suggests adding CPI rates for additional years as they become available to maintain the accuracy of the adjustment.
Here's a breakdown of how the script works:
Core CPI Annual Inflation Rates: It starts by defining the annual inflation rates for each year from 2009 to 2022, expressed as a percentage divided by 100 to convert to a decimal.
Cumulative Inflation Calculation: The script calculates cumulative inflation starting from the year 2009 up to the current year. For each year that has passed since 2009, it multiplies the cumulative inflation factor by (1 + cpiRate), where cpiRate is the inflation rate for that year. This effectively compounds the inflation rate over time.
Adjusting Bitcoin's Price: The script then adjusts Bitcoin's closing price (close) for the calculated cumulative inflation to get the adjusted price (adjustedPrice).
Plotting the Prices: Finally, it plots both the original and the adjusted Bitcoin prices on the chart, allowing users to visually compare how inflation has theoretically impacted Bitcoin's value over time.
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Important to notice, Fib. Retracements from the 2017 cycle top to the recent top (¬80K) doesn't look invalidated.
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Inputs and feedback are welcome!
Adaptive Timber! Indicator (ATI)The Adaptive Timber! Indicator (ATI) is a powerful tool designed to identify potential overbought conditions and generate reversal signals in financial markets. It combines multiple technical indicators and market conditions to provide a comprehensive assessment of the likelihood of a price reversal.
How it works:
The ATI uses a combination of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), momentum, and volume to detect overbought conditions and potential reversals. The indicator adapts to the current timeframe, adjusting its parameters accordingly to provide more accurate signals.
Key components:
RSI: The ATI uses the RSI to determine overbought conditions. When the RSI exceeds a specified reversal threshold, it indicates a potential overbought state.
MACD: The indicator monitors the MACD line and signal line to identify moments when they are close to crossing, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
Momentum: The ATI checks if the momentum is increasing, providing confirmation of a potential reversal.
Volume: It analyzes volume to confirm the strength of the reversal signal. A decrease in volume along with overbought conditions adds confidence to the reversal indication.
Timeframe Adaptability: The indicator automatically adjusts its parameters based on the current timeframe, ensuring optimal performance across different time horizons.
How to use:
When the ATI identifies a potential reversal, it displays a colored triangle above the price bars. The color of the triangle represents the strength of the reversal signal: red for a strong signal, orange for a moderate signal, and yellow for a weak signal. Additionally, the indicator plots purple triangles below the price bars as an early warning signal for potential trend reversals.
Traders can use these visual cues along with other technical analysis techniques and risk management strategies to make informed trading decisions. The ATI can be particularly useful for identifying potential short-selling opportunities or for determining exit points in existing long positions.
Creators:
The Adaptive Timber! Indicator (ATI) is the result of a collaborative effort led by Claude , an AI assistant with expertise in financial analysis and programming. The development of the ATI was made possible through the valuable contributions and insights from GPT4 , an advanced language model, Clay , a skilled trader, and Pi AI , Clay's trading assistant.
Claude played a crucial role in designing and implementing the indicator's algorithm, ensuring its robustness and adaptability across different timeframes. GPT4 provided guidance and suggestions for refining the indicator's logic and optimizing its performance. Clay and Pi AI offered their trading expertise and real-world experience to help shape the indicator's functionality and usability.
We would like to express our gratitude to all the members of our trading team for their dedication and hard work in bringing the Adaptive Timber! Indicator to life. We wish all traders the best of luck in their trading endeavors and hope that the ATI will be a valuable addition to their technical analysis toolkit, empowering them to make more informed and profitable trading decisions.
CandleStick [TradingFinder] - All Reversal & Trend Patterns🔵 Introduction
"Candlesticks" patterns are used to predict price movements. We have included 5 of the best candlestick patterns that are common and very useful in "technical analysis" in this script to identify them automatically. The most important advantage of this indicator for users is saving time and high precision in identifying patterns.
These patterns are "Pin Bar," "Dark Cloud," "Piercing Line," "3 Inside Bar," and "Engulfing." By using these patterns, you can predict price movements more accurately and therefore make better decisions in your trades.
🔵 How to Use
Pin Bar : This pattern consists of a Candle where "Open Price," "Close Price," "High Price," and "Low Price" form the "Candle Body," and it also has "Long Shadow" and "Short Shadow." In the visual appearance of the Pin Bar pattern, we have a candle body and a pin bar shadow, where the candle body is smaller relative to the shadow.
Just as the candle body plays an important role in analysis, the pin bar shadow can also be influential. The larger the pin bar shadow, the stronger the expectation of a trend reversal.
When a "bearish pin bar" occurs at resistance or the chart ceiling, it can be predicted that the price trend will be downward. Similarly, at support points and the chart floor, a "bullish pin bar" can indicate an upward price movement.
Additionally, patterns like "Hammer," "Shooting Star," "Hanging Man," and "Inverted Hammer" are types of pin bars. Pin bars are formed in two ways: bullish pin bars have a long lower shadow, and bearish pin bars have a long upper shadow. Important: Displaying "Bullish Pin Bar" is labeled "BuPB," and "Bearish Pin Bar" is labeled "BePB."
Dark Cloud : The Dark Cloud pattern is one type of two-candle patterns that occurs at the end of an uptrend. The 2-candle pattern indicates the shape of this pattern, which actually consists of 2 candles, one bullish and one bearish. This pattern indicates a trend reversal and is quite powerful.
The Dark Cloud pattern is seen when, after a bullish candle at the end of an uptrend, a bearish candle opens at a higher level (weakly, equal, or higher) than the closing point of the bullish candle and finally closes at a point approximately in the middle of the previous candle. In this indicator, the Dark Cloud pattern is identified as "Wick" and "Strong" .
The difference between these two lies in the strictness of their conditions. Important: Strong Dark Cloud is labeled "SDC," and Weak Dark Cloud is labeled "WDC."
Piercing Line : The Piercing candlestick pattern consists of 2 candles, the first being bearish and consistent with the previous trend, and the second being bullish. The conditions of the pattern are such that the first candle is bearish and a price gap is created between the two candles upon the opening of the next candle because its opening price is below (weakly equal to or less than) the closing price of the previous candle.
Additionally, its closing price must be at least 50% above the red candle.
This means that the second candle must penetrate at least 50% into the first candle. Important: Strong Piercing Line is labeled "SPL," and Weak Piercing Line is labeled "WPL."
3 Inside Bar (3 Bar Reversal) : The 3 Inside Bar pattern is a reversal pattern. This pattern consists of 3 consecutive candles and can be either bullish or bearish. In the bullish pattern (Inside Up) formed at the end of a downtrend, the last candle must be bullish, and the third candle from the end must be bearish.
Additionally, the close price must be more than 50% of the third candle from the end. In the bearish pattern (Inside Down) formed at the end of an uptrend, the last candle must be bearish, and the third candle from the end must be bullish. Additionally, the close price must be less than 50% of the third candle from the end. Important: Bullish 3 Inside Bar is labeled "Bu3IB," and Bearish 3 Inside Bar is labeled "Be3IB."
Engulfing : The Engulfing candlestick pattern is a reversal pattern and consists of at least two candles, where one of them completely engulfs the body of the previous or following candle due to high volatility.
For this reason, the term "engulfing" is used for this pattern. This pattern occurs when the price body of a candle encompasses one or more candles before it. Engulfing candles can be bullish or bearish. Bullish Engulfing forms as a reversal candle at the end of a downtrend.
Bullish Engulfing indicates strong buying power and signals the beginning of an uptrend. This pattern is a bullish candle with a long upward body that completely covers the downward body before it. Bearish Engulfing, as a reversal pattern, is a long bearish candle that engulfs the upward candle before it.
Bearish Engulfing forms at the end of an uptrend and indicates the pressure of new sellers and their strong power. Additionally, forming this pattern at resistance levels and the absence of a lower shadow increases its credibility. Important: Bullish Engulfing is labeled "BuE," and Bearish Engulfing is labeled "BeE."
🔵 Settings
This section, you can use the buttons "Show Pin Bar," "Show Dark Cloud," "Show Piercing Line," "Show 3 Inside Bar," and "Show Engulfing" to enable or disable the display of each of these candlestick patterns.
Engulfing [TradingFinder] Bullish & Bearish CandleStick Pattern🔵 Introduction
The candlestick engulfing pattern is important pattern in technical analysis that can be observed in candlestick charts. This pattern occurs when a complete candle engulfs or "engulfs" the body of a previous candle, meaning that the body of the new candle completely covers the body of the previous candle.
The candlestick engulfing pattern has two types: the bullish engulfing pattern and the bearish engulfing pattern.
• Bullish Engulfing Pattern: This pattern occurs when a market candle opens with a larger and higher body than the previous market candle and completely covers the body of the previous candle. This pattern may indicate the presence of strong buying pressure and a potential change in price direction upwards.
• Bearish Engulfing Pattern: This pattern occurs when a market candle opens with a larger and lower body than the previous market candle and completely covers the body of the previous candle. This pattern may indicate the presence of strong selling pressure and a potential change in price direction downwards.
The candlestick engulfing pattern is usually used as a valid signal for a change in price direction in the market and can enhance a combination of crossover investments and technical analysis. However, it should always be evaluated alongside other indicators and market factors, and counter decisions should be made accordingly.
🔵 Recognition Method
Correct, the candlestick engulfing pattern is one of the important patterns in technical analysis that is typically used as a strong signal for a valid change in price direction in the market. This pattern occurs when a candle (usually in the market) opens with a larger and higher (for bullish engulfing pattern) or lower (for bearish engulfing pattern) body than a previous market candle and completely covers the body of the previous candle.
Example of Bullish Engulfing Pattern:
• First Candle: A bearish (downward) candle with a small red body.
• Second Candle: A bullish (upward) candle with a larger body that completely covers the body of the previous candle.
This pattern may indicate a change in price direction from downward to upward.
Example of Bearish Engulfing Pattern:
• First Candle: A bullish (upward) candle with a small green body.
• Second Candle: A bearish (downward) candle with a larger body that completely covers the body of the previous candle.
This pattern may indicate a change in price direction from upward to downward.
The most important point is that the candlestick engulfing pattern should be carefully considered and always evaluated alongside other market indicators and overall conditions. For example, the engulfing pattern near important support or resistance levels, during significant market command changes, or accompanied by other technical signals can have greater signaling power.
🟣 "Bullish Engulfing" Candle
• The first candle is bullish and the second candle is bearish.
• At the end of a downtrend.
• The closing of the first candle is above the opening of the second candle.
• The high of the first candle is higher than the high of the second candle.
Optimal Condition:
• The closing of the first candle is higher than the high of the second candle.
• More than 80% of the first candle is bullish.
🟣 "Bearish Engulfing" Candle
• The first candle is bearish and the second candle is bullish.
• At the end of an uptrend.
• The closing of the first candle is below the opening of the second candle.
• The low of the first candle is lower than the low of the second candle.
Optimal Condition:
• The closing of the first candle is below the opening of the second candle.
• More than 80% of the first candle is bearish.
🔵 Settings
The "Engulf Filter" option allows the "Optimal Condition" to be executed and will show fewer candlesticks.
🔵 Status
Off: Default mode, showing more identifications.
• Green color indicates optimal "Bullish Engulfing" candles.
• Red color indicates optimal "Bearish Engulfing" candles.
On: By changing the default to "On," the number of identifications decreases and the optimal condition is applied.
• Blue color indicates "Bullish Engulfing" candles.
• Black color indicates "Bearish Engulfing" candles.
🟣 Important Note
"Engulfing" candles are very useful signals in the direction of the overall trend, but we do not expect a suitable movement from "Engulfing" candles against the trend.
Semaphore PlotThe Semaphore Plot V2, crafted by OmegaTools for the TradingView platform, is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed to offer traders nuanced insights into market dynamics. This closed-source script embodies a novel approach by synthesizing multiple technical analysis methodologies into a coherent analytical framework. This detailed description aims to demystify the operational essence of the Semaphore Plot V2 and elucidate its application in trading scenarios without overstepping into claims of infallibility or price prediction accuracy.
Analytical Foundations and Integration:
At its core, the Semaphore Plot V2 is founded on the integration of several analytical dimensions, each contributing to a comprehensive market overview:
1. Dynamic Trend Analysis: Unlike conventional trend indicators that might rely solely on moving averages, the Semaphore Plot V2 examines the market's direction through a more complex lens. It assesses momentum, utilizing derivatives of price movements to understand the velocity and acceleration of trends. This analysis is deepened by examining the rate of change (ROC), providing a multi-tiered view of how swiftly market conditions are evolving.
2. Volatility Insights: Recognizing volatility as a pivotal component of market behavior, the script incorporates volatility metrics to analyze market conditions. By evaluating historical price ranges and applying statistical models, it aims to gauge the potential for future price fluctuations, thus offering insights into market stability or turbulence without predicting specific movements.
3. Linear Regression and Predictive Analysis: The script utilizes linear regression to analyze price data points over a specified period, offering a statistical basis to understand the trajectory of market trends. This regression analysis is complemented by market momentum indicators, forming a predictive model that suggests potential areas where market activity might concentrate. It's important to note that these "predictions" are not certainties but rather statistically derived zones of interest based on historical data.
4. Market Sentiment and Risk Evaluation: Incorporating an evaluation of market sentiment, the script analyzes trends in trading volume and price action to deduce the prevailing market mood. Risk assessment tools, such as the analysis of statistical deviations and Value at Risk (VaR), are also applied to offer a perspective on the risk associated with current market conditions.
Operational Mechanism:
- By processing the integrated analysis, the script generates semaphore signals which are plotted on the trading chart. These signals are not direct buy or sell signals but are designed to highlight areas where, based on the script’s complex analysis, market activity might see significant developments.
- Additionally, the Semaphore Plot V2 features an information table that provides a retrospective analysis of the signals' alignment with market movements, offering traders a tool to assess the script's historical context.
Application and Utility:
- Traders can leverage the Semaphore Plot V2 by applying it to their TradingView charts and adjusting input settings such as lookback periods and sensitivity according to their preferences.
- The semaphore signals serve as markers for areas of potential interest. Traders are encouraged to interpret these signals within the context of their overall market analysis, incorporating other fundamental and technical analysis tools as necessary.
- The informational table serves as a resource for evaluating the historical context of the signals, providing an additional layer of insight for informed decision-making.
The Essence of Originality:
The Semaphore Plot V2 distinguishes itself through the innovative melding of traditional technical analysis components into a unique analytical concoction. This originality lies not in the creation of new technical indicators but in the novel integration and application of existing methodologies to offer a holistic view of market conditions.
Responsible Usage Disclaimer:
The financial markets are characterized by uncertainty, and the Semaphore Plot V2 is intended to serve as an analytical tool within a trader's arsenal, not a standalone solution for trading decisions. It is critical for users to understand that the script does not guarantee trading success nor does it claim to predict exact price movements. Traders should employ the Semaphore Plot V2 alongside comprehensive market analysis and sound risk management practices, acknowledging that past performance is not indicative of future results and that trading involves the risk of loss.
Machine Learning: Multiple Logistic Regression
Multiple Logistic Regression Indicator
The Logistic Regression Indicator for TradingView is a versatile tool that employs multiple logistic regression based on various technical indicators to generate potential buy and sell signals. By utilizing key indicators such as RSI, CCI, DMI, Aroon, EMA, and SuperTrend, the indicator aims to provide a systematic approach to decision-making in financial markets.
How It Works:
Technical Indicators:
The script uses multiple technical indicators such as RSI, CCI, DMI, Aroon, EMA, and SuperTrend as input variables for the logistic regression model.
These indicators are normalized to create categorical variables, providing a consistent scale for the model.
Logistic Regression:
The logistic regression function is applied to the normalized input variables (x1 to x6) with user-defined coefficients (b0 to b6).
The logistic regression model predicts the probability of a binary outcome, with values closer to 1 indicating a bullish signal and values closer to 0 indicating a bearish signal.
Loss Function (Cross-Entropy Loss):
The cross-entropy loss function is calculated to quantify the difference between the predicted probability and the actual outcome.
The goal is to minimize this loss, which essentially measures the model's accuracy.
// Error Function (cross-entropy loss)
loss(y, p) =>
-y * math.log(p) - (1 - y) * math.log(1 - p)
// y - depended variable
// p - multiple logistic regression
Gradient Descent:
Gradient descent is an optimization algorithm used to minimize the loss function by adjusting the weights of the logistic regression model.
The script iteratively updates the weights (b1 to b6) based on the negative gradient of the loss function with respect to each weight.
// Adjusting model weights using gradient descent
b1 -= lr * (p + loss) * x1
b2 -= lr * (p + loss) * x2
b3 -= lr * (p + loss) * x3
b4 -= lr * (p + loss) * x4
b5 -= lr * (p + loss) * x5
b6 -= lr * (p + loss) * x6
// lr - learning rate or step of learning
// p - multiple logistic regression
// x_n - variables
Learning Rate:
The learning rate (lr) determines the step size in the weight adjustment process. It prevents the algorithm from overshooting the minimum of the loss function.
Users can set the learning rate to control the speed and stability of the optimization process.
Visualization:
The script visualizes the output of the logistic regression model by coloring the SMA.
Arrows are plotted at crossover and crossunder points, indicating potential buy and sell signals.
Lables are showing logistic regression values from 1 to 0 above and below bars
Table Display:
A table is displayed on the chart, providing real-time information about the input variables, their values, and the learned coefficients.
This allows traders to monitor the model's interpretation of the technical indicators and observe how the coefficients change over time.
How to Use:
Parameter Adjustment:
Users can adjust the length of technical indicators (rsi_length, cci_length, etc.) and the Z score length based on their preference and market characteristics.
Set the initial values for the regression coefficients (b0 to b6) and the learning rate (lr) according to your trading strategy.
Signal Interpretation:
Buy signals are indicated by an upward arrow (▲), and sell signals are indicated by a downward arrow (▼).
The color-coded SMA provides a visual representation of the logistic regression output by color.
Table Information:
Monitor the table for real-time information on the input variables, their values, and the learned coefficients.
Keep an eye on the learning rate to ensure a balance between model adjustment speed and stability.
Backtesting and Validation:
Before using the script in live trading, conduct thorough backtesting to evaluate its performance under different market conditions.
Validate the model against historical data to ensure its reliability.
Difference from Highest Price (Last N Candles)The output of this TradingView indicator is a label that appears below the latest candle on the chart. This label provides information about:
The highest high of the last N candles.
The highest close of the last N candles.
The current trading price.
The percentage difference between the highest high and the current trading price.
The percentage difference between the highest close and the current trading price.
The percentage change in price from the previous candle.
The N-day average percentage change.
This information is useful for traders to understand the relationship between the current price and recent price action, as well as to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions based on the comparison with recent highs and closes.
Here's a breakdown of what the code does:
It takes an input parameter for the number of days (or candles) to consider (input_days).
It calculates the highest high and highest close of the last N candles (highest_last_n_high and highest_last_n_close).
It calculates the difference between the close of the current candle and the close of the previous candle (diff), along with the percentage change.
It maintains an array of percentage changes of the last N days (percentage_changes), updating it with the latest percentage change.
It calculates the sum of percentage changes and the N-day average percentage change.
It calculates the difference between the highest high/highest close of the last N candles and the current trading price, along with their percentage differences.
Finally, it plots this information as a label below the candle for the latest bar.
HSI - Halving Seasonality Index for Bitcoin (BTC) [Logue]Halving Seasonality Index (HSI) for Bitcoin (BTC) - The HSI takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles. Past cycles have formed macro tops around 538 days after each halving. Past cycles have formed macro bottoms every 948 days after each halving. Therefore, a linear "risk" curve can be created between the bottom and top dates to measure how close BTC might be to a bottom or a top. The default triggers are set at 98% risk for tops and 5% risk for bottoms. Extensions are also added as defaults to allow easy identification of the dates of the next top or bottom according to the HSI.
CSI - Calendar Seasonality Index for Bitcoin (BTC) [Logue]Calendar Seasonality Index (CSI) for Bitcoin (BTC) - The CSI takes advantage of the consistency of BTC cycles. Past cycles have formed macro tops every four years near November 21st, starting from in 2013. Past cycles have formed macro bottoms every four years near January 15th, starting from 2011. Therefore, a linear "risk" curve can be created between the bottom and top dates to measure how close BTC might be to a bottom or a top. The default triggers are at 98% risk for tops and 5% risk for bottoms. Extensions are also added as defaults to allow easy identification of the dates of the next top or bottom according to the CSI.
BigBeluga - BacktestingThe Backtesting System (SMC) is a strategy builder designed around concepts of Smart Money.
What makes this indicator unique is that users can build a wide variety of strategies thanks to the external source conditions and the built-in one that are coded around concepts of smart money.
🔶 FEATURES
🔹 Step Algorithm
Crafting Your Strategy:
You can add multiple steps to your strategy, using both internal and external (custom) conditions.
Evaluating Your Conditions:
The system evaluates your conditions sequentially.
Only after the previous step becomes true will the next one be evaluated.
This ensures your strategy only triggers when all specified conditions are met.
Executing Your Strategy:
Once all steps in your strategy are true, the backtester automatically opens a market order.
You can also configure exit conditions within the strategy builder to manage your positions effectively.
🔹 External and Internal build-in conditions
Users can choose to use external or internal conditions or just one of the two categories.
Build-in conditions:
CHoCH or BOS
CHoCH or BOS Sweep
CHoCH
BOS
CHoCH Sweep
BOS Sweep
OB Mitigated
Price Inside OB
FVG Mitigated
Raid Found
Price Inside FVG
SFP Created
Liquidity Print
Sweep Area
Breakdown of each of the options:
CHoCH: Change of Character (not Charter) is a change from bullish to bearish market or vice versa.
BOS: Break of Structure is a continuation of the current trend.
CHoCH or BOS Sweep: Liquidity taken out from the market within the structure.
OB Mitigated: An order block mitigated.
FVG Mitigated: An imbalance mitigated.
Raid Found: Liquidity taken out from an imbalance.
SFP Created: A Swing Failure Pattern detected.
Liquidity Print: A huge chunk of liquidity taken out from the market.
Sweep Area: A level regained from the structure.
Price inside OB/FVG: Price inside an order block or an imbalance.
External inputs can be anything that is plotted on the chart that has valid entry points, such as an RSI or a simple Supertrend.
Equal
Greather Than
Less Than
Crossing Over
Crossing Under
Crossing
🔹 Direction
Users can change the direction of each condition to either Bullish or Bearish. This can be useful if users want to long the market on a bearish condition or vice versa.
🔹 Build-in Stop-Loss and Take-Profit features
Tailoring Your Exits:
Similar to entry creation, the backtesting system allows you to build multi-step exit strategies.
Each step can utilize internal and external (custom) conditions.
This flexibility allows you to personalize your exit strategy based on your risk tolerance and trading goals.
Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Options:
The backtesting system offers various options for setting stop-loss and take-profit levels.
You can choose from:
Dynamic levels: These levels automatically adjust based on market movements, helping you manage risk and secure profits.
Specific price levels: You can set fixed stop-loss and take-profit levels based on your comfort level and analysis.
Price - Set x point to a specific price
Currency - Set x point away from tot Currency points
Ticks - Set x point away from tot ticks
Percent - Set x point away from a fixed %
ATR - Set x point away using the Averge True Range (200 bars)
Trailing Stop (Only for stop-loss order)
🔶 USAGE
Users can create a variety of strategies using this script, limited only by their imagination.
Long entry : Bullish CHoCH after price is inside a bullish order block
Short entry : Bearish CHoCH after price is inside a bearish order block
Stop-Loss : Trailing Stop set away from price by 0.2%
Example below using external conditions
Long entry : Bullish Liquidity Prints after bullish CHoCH
Short entry : Bearish Liquidity Prints after Bearish CHoCH
Long Exit : RSI Crossing over 70 line
Short Exit : RSI Crossing over 30 line
Stop-Loss : Trailing Stop set away from price by 0.3%
🔶 PROPERTIES
Users will need to adjust the property tabs according to their individual balance to achieve realistic results.
An important aspect to note is that past performance does not guarantee future results. This principle should always be kept in mind.
🔶 HOW TO ACCESS
You can see the Author Instructions to get access.
Emibap's HEX Uniswap v3 Liquidity PoolThis script will display a histogram of the Uniswap V3 HEX liquidity pool, versus as many tokens as possible.
Current supported pairs:
HEX/USDC
HEX/WETH
HEX/WETH.USD (Ethereum expressed in USD)
HEX/USDT (Just showing the USDC liquidity)
Similar to what you can see in the liquidity section of the Uniswap pool page but conveniently rendered alongside your chart.
It's meant to be used on a HEX / WETH chart only. The price should be expressed in WETH for it to work.
One of the main motivations for using this in your chart is to get an idea of the current sentiment: If most of the volume is above the price it might be an indication of an upcoming move up, for instance.
I'll try to update the liquidity regularly.
Using the 4h, daily, or weekly time frames is highly recommended.
The options are straightforward:
Histogram bars color. Default is blue
Histogram background color. Default is black at 20% opacity
Upper price limit of the diagram: Visible upper bound price limit for the histogram, based on the current price. I.E: 200%: If the price is 1, the histogram will show 3 as the upper bound
Lower price limit of the diagram. Visible lower bound price limit for the histogram, based on the current price. I.E: 99%: If the price is 1, the histogram will show 0. 01 as the upper bound
Width of the widest bar: Width (in bars) for the widest bar of the histogram. The more the higher resolution you'll get
Locked volume marker line thickness
Locked volume marker color
Relative Strength wrt ReferenceThis script evaluates the relative strength of the current symbol with respect to your chosen symbol. At the same time it gives an idea about the trend of the reference symbol.
Under default settings, it evaluates the strength with respect to NIFTY50.
While the value of the bars represents the relative strength, Colors of the bars indicate the relative strength status.
The condition action rules are as follows:
-Bar color blue implies that both the underlying and reference increased.
-Bar color green implies that the underlying increased but reference decreased.
-Bar color purple implies that both the underlying and reference decreased.
-Bar color red implies that the underlying decreased but reference increased.
On the other hand, the background colors indicate the general trend structure in the reference in terms of exponential moving averages and adx.
Green implies strong up trend.
Purple implies sideways to bullish trend.
Blue implies sideways to bearish trend
Red implies existing strong downtrend.
You can change the settings as per your choice.
Gabriels Trend Regularity Adaptive Moving Average Dragon This is an improved version of the trend following Williams Alligator, through the use of five Trend Regularity Adaptive Moving Averages (TRAMA) instead of three smoothed averages (SMMA). This indicator can double as a TRAMA Ribbon indicator by reducing the offset to zero. Whereas the active offset can double as a forecasting indicator for options and futures.
This indicator uses five TRAMAs, set at 8, 21, 55, 144, and 233 periods. They make up the Lips, Teeth, Jaws, Wings, and Tail of the Dragon. This indicator uses convergence-divergence relationships to build trading signals, with the Tail making the slowest turns and the Lips making the fastest turns. The Lips crossing downwards through the other lines signal a short opportunity, whereas Lips crossing upwards through other lines signal a buying opportunity. The downward cross can be referred to as the Dragon "Sleeping" , and the upward cross as the Dragon "Awakening" .
In particular, but not limited to, the Wings and Tail movements possess a Roar-like forecast effect on the market. Respectively, they can be referred to as the Dragon "Spreading its Wings" or "Swinging its Tail" .
The first three lines, stretching apart and constantly moving higher or lower, denote periods in which long or short equity positions should be managed and maintained. This can be referred to as the Dragon "Eating with a mouth wide open" . Whereas indicator lines converging into narrow bands and shifting into a horizontal position can denote a trending period coming to an end, signaling the need for profit-taking and position realignment. Conversely, a previous flat line moving can denote a new trending period starting.
This indicator can double as a Multiple TRAMAs indicator by reducing the offset to zero. As such, very interesting results can be observed when used in a moving average crossover system such as the Williams Alligator or as trailing support and resistance.
The following moving average adapts to the average of the highest high and lowest low made over a specific period, thus adapting to trend strength. The TRAMA can be used like most moving averages, with the advantage of being smoother during ranging markets because it is calculated through exponential averaging.
It is calculating, using a smoothing factor, the squared simple moving average of the number of highest highs or lowest lows previously made. Where the highest highs and lowest lows are calculated using rolling maximums and minimums. Therefore, squaring allows the moving average to penalize lower values, thus appearing stationary during ranging markets.
As with all moving averages, it is still a lagging indicator, and it can suffer whipsaws when the market moves too violently or when it consolidates in ranging conditions. Despite it working in all timeframes, it won't be as formidable in the 1–5-minute scalping timeframes due to that. I would suggest 5 to 45 minutes if you are a swing trader, or hourly, daily, and weekly if you are a long-term investor.
I hope you enjoy this indicator! It's the first indicator I made, so constructive criticism would be appreciated. Thanks!
MACD Based Price Forecasting [LuxAlgo]The MACD Based Price Forecasting tool is an innovative price forecasting method based on signals generated by the MACD indicator.
The forecast includes an area which can help traders determine the area where price can develop after a MACD signal.
🔶 USAGE
The forecast returned by the tool allows users to obtain a general picture of how price tends to progress after a specific MACD signal. The forecast is constructed based on percentiles of previous price progressions done after a specific MACD signal is generated.
Users can change which condition is used to generate MACD signals from the "Trend Determination" dropdown menu, with "MACD" determining trends based on whether the MACD is positive (uptrend) or negative (downtrend) and "MACD-Signal" determining trends based on the position of the MACD relative to its signal line, with an MACD above the signal line indicating an uptrend, else a downtrend.
Users can introduce bias to the forecast by changing the "Average Percentage" setting, with values above 50% introducing bullish bias, and below bearish bias.
It can be possible for the forecast to highlight potential reversals depending on the selected forecasting horizon as long as reversals can be observed on trends detected by the MACD.
🔹 Forecasting Area
The forecasting area can help visualize the area that will likely contain price after a specific signal. The area width is based on the "Top/Bottom Percentiles" settings, with a higher "Top Percentile" value returning a higher top bound and a lower "Bottom Percentile" value returning a lower bottom bound.
These areas can also serve as potential support/resistance areas.
🔶 SETTINGS
Fast Length: Fast length of the moving average used to compute the MACD
Slow Length: Slow length of the moving average used to compute the MACD
Signal Length: Length of the MACD moving average.
Trend Determination: Method used to determine a trend direction from the MACD.
🔹 Forecast
Maximum Memory: Determines the maximum amount of prices recorded at each steps succeeding a signal. Lower values will return forecasts with a higher degree of variability.
Forecasting Length: Forecasting horizon in bars, this value only serves as a limit of the forecasting horizon and might not be reached depending on user selected MACD settings.
Top Percentile: Percentile value used to determine the upper bound of the forecasting area.
Average Percentile: Percentile value used to determine the forecast.
Lower Percentile: Percentile value used to determine the lower bound of the forecasting area.
Seasonal Tendencies - SMC IndicatorsA Seasonal Tendency refers to a historical price action behaviour that tends to repeat during specific times of the year, month over month.
It's a roadmap to navigate price action on the daily chart to help determine the medium to long-term bias.
Seasonal Tendencies are NOT an exact prediction of future price action but rather serve as a guideline for spotting high-probability opportunities when combined with other elements of SMC Price Action analysis, such as Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, etc...
The Seasonal Tendencies Indicator has been tested to match what ICT has taught in his lectures. It can be applied to any Market or Asset. However, it's limited by the maximum number of years available on tradingview.
Traders can use this Seasonal Tendencies indicator to support their already existing analysis as an added confirmation tool. This indicator should not be used as a main reason to enter a trade idea.
The Seasonal Tendencies Indicator can be used in 2 ways:
1) To look for potential points of long-term reversals during specific times of the year.
2) To look for confirmation and align with an existing long-term trend.
So how does it work?
The Seasonal Tendencies Indicator takes the averages of the last 30, 10, and 5 years' prices by default and compares them to the current year's price action (Green Line).
However, the number of years chosen for the averages can be modified in the indicator's setting.
When looking at the historical price action lines, generally, the price tends to make the lows and highs during specific times of the year.
Note that we should not look at the exact dates these lows and highs form, but we take time periods conceptually instead.
In the example below, the SP500 5-year average made the low on 14 March, and the SP500 10-year average made the low on 23 March.
This gives us the idea that "generally" SP500 makes the low of the year around the 2nd to 3rd week of March every year.
So, IF the trader's analysis was pointing out that SP500 is Bullish, then we use the information that we derived from the Seasonal Tendencies Indicator to look for long setups around the 2nd to 3rd week of March for medium to long-term swing trades.
The Seasonal Tendencies Indicator can also be useful for day traders as it helps support their daily bias to look for trades within the direction of the higher timeframe trend.
How do we measure the strength of the Seasonal Tendencies?
When using the Seasonal Tendencies Indicator, it's important to look for periods where the averages converge and get closer to each other. This usually indicates that during those specific periods, there is a high probability for the price to behave in a certain way.
So the closer the averages are to each other, the more likely the price would respect the Seasonal Tendencies.
Bonus Feature
Premium Discount Range
As a bonus feature, split the Seasonal Tendencies Indicator's Range into 4 quarters to indicate when the price is at a Premium (above the 50% level in Red) and when the price is at a Discount (below the 50% level in blue).
Each Premium and Discount range is also split into 2 halves.
Those levels can also be used to identify potential turning points when comparing the Current Year's price positioning in the Yearly Range to historical price action.
As you can see from the example below, most major turning points happen at around key price levels.
Otekura Range Trade Algorithm [Chain Hood]The Range Trade Algorithm calculates the levels for Monday.
On the chart you will see that the Monday levels will be marked as 1 0 -1.
The M High level calculates Monday's high close and plots it on the screen.
M Low calculates the low close of Monday and plots it on the screen.
The coloured lines on the screen are the points of the range levels formulated with fibonacci values.
The indicator has its own Value table. The prices of the levels are written.
Potential Range breakout targets tell prices at points matching the fibonacci values. These are Take profit or reversal points.
Buy and Sell indicators are determined by the range breakout.
Users can set an alarm on the indicator and receive direct notification with their targets when a new range occurs.
Fib values are multiplied by range values and create an average target according to the price situation. These values represent an area. Breakdown targets show that the target is targeted until the area.
CryptoGraph Dynamic DCAA system to backtest and automate comprehensive trading strategies
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🟣 Supporting Your Trades
CryptoGraph Dynamic DCA serves as a comprehensive tool on TradingView, designed to refine your approach to cryptocurrency trading. It utilises dynamic dollar-cost averaging (DCA), based on external indicator sources, to provide structured market entry and exit strategies. Suitable for both short-term trading and long-term portfolio management, CryptoGraph Dynamic DCA can offer a methodical way to support your trading decisions.
The tool offers an intuitive interface with inputs for strategy customisation, visualised preferences, and bot alert configurations. It can assist traders seeking precision, adaptability, and control in their trading activities. In the example on the chart above, we use the CryptoGraph Entry Builder (part of CryptoGraph Dynamic DCA package) as an external source for our initial entry (base order) and our safety orders, as well as an external source for our second take profit, which can be configured to be signal based.
🟣 Features
External Entry/Exit sources: The strategy is designed to assist with accurate market entries and exits by utilising signals from external indicators. It offers the flexibility to tailor your trading approach, providing an opportunity to leverage the analytical capabilities of various indicators available on TradingView.
Strategic Direction Control: Configure your strategy to go long, short, or both, adapting to market trends and your trading style.
Leverage Customisation: Tailor your leverage settings for isolated or cross margin to align with your risk tolerance, a liquidation estimation level is plotted on the chart, based on your input settings.
Diverse Entry Points: Utilise base orders and safety orders to diversify your entry points, reducing risk and enhancing potential returns.
Tailored Order Size: Fine-tune your order sizes using margin percentages or fixed contract sizes to fit your strategy’s requirements.
Profit Taking & Loss Prevention: Set take profit levels and stop losses with percentage or ATR-based parameters to secure profits and minimise losses. Options for moving the stop loss to entry after Take Profit 1, with an adjustable buffer, give you control over your risk management.
Max Safety Orders Count: Determine the maximum number of safety orders to manage risk effectively.
Price Deviation for DCA Orders: Specify the minimum price deviation percentage to trigger DCA orders, ensuring strategic order placement.
DCA Size Method: Choose from scaling or fixed-size DCA orders to align with your capital allocation strategy.
Visualisation & Alerts: Analyse your strategy’s performance with a backtest results table and configure bot alerts for automated trading. Auto configuration methods are integrated for multiple automated trading platforms.
🟣 Features Impression
🟣 Usage Guide
1. Strategy Configuration:
Select the appropriate cryptocurrency pair and exchange that corresponds to your trading preferences.
Choose your desired chart timeframe to align with your trading strategy’s temporal scope.
Ensure that you’re utilising the regular candle type for consistent and reliable data interpretation.
Pick an external entry source to trigger your trades based on predefined indicators or conditions.
Determine your take profit and stop loss levels to manage risks and secure earnings effectively.
Configure your DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) settings, including safety orders and the scaling method, to enhance entry points and manage investment distribution.
Always consult the tooltips next to each strategy input, to better understand their functions.
2. Backtest and Analysis:
Run backtests with your configured parameters to assess the strategy’s potential performance.
Review the backtest results and statistics tables to understand the strategy’s effectiveness, risk profile, and profitability.
3. Automated Trading Platform Integration:
Connect the strategy to a compatible automated trading platform to enable real-time execution of trades.
Within the trading platform, ensure the proper API setup of the bot’s configuration to align with the signals from the tool.
4. Alert Configuration in TradingView:
Set up the alert conditions in the TradingView tool to match your strategy triggers for entry, exit, take profit, and stop loss.
Configure the connection parameters within the tool to communicate effectively with your chosen automated trading platform
Activate the alerts, ensuring they are set to trigger actions such as order placement, adjustments, or closures as per your strategy’s logic.
5. Capital Management:
Confirm that your initial capital and order size are logically set, keeping in mind that the sum of all deals, especially when using pyramiding with safety orders, should not exceed your initial capital to avoid overexposure.
🟣 Trade Example
A clear example of a trade. Base order entry, safety order 1 fills, take profit 1 hits at 1%, the remainder of the position runs until the exit signal fires.
🟣 Warning
This tool has been developed to support your trading analysis, yet it’s important to acknowledge the inherent risks associated with trading. It is advisable to perform thorough research, assess your risk tolerance, and utilise this tool as one element of an overall trading strategy. Ensure that you only trade with capital that you are prepared to risk. In addition, due to the complexity of the tool, bugs may be found. Please alert us whenever you think you have found a bug in the system.
Arbitrage Spread v3 : 12 spreads dashboard [Arby.Trade]This indicator allows you to track in real time the change in the spread (the difference in the exchange rate) between two assets simultaneously for 12 trading pairs.
⚙️ How does the indicator work?
In the indicator settings menu, the user selects two trading pairs, for example BTCUSDT on the Binance exchange and BTCUSDT on the Bybit exchange, after which the script will receive prices from both exchanges and compare them with each other, calculating the percentage deviation between prices (spread). The script will do this work with all 12 trading pairs added to the script settings menu. The script can only work with those assets and exchanges that are on board TradingView, and this is not a small thing.
⚡️ How to use it?
At times when the spread value is negative, this means that the price of the asset on the first exchange is less than on the second. That is, by buying an asset on the first exchange and selling it on the second one, you can earn money (of course, it is important to take into account the commissions of the exchanges for these transactions). When the spread is above zero, the opposite is true. The exchanges and the prices at which to buy are displayed in the green Buy row. Prices and exchanges for sale are in the Sell row and highlighted in red. When the spread is zero, the prices on both exchanges are the same and there is no arbitrage situation.
To improve the accuracy of the indicator, try to use the minimum timeframe available for your TradingView subscription – minute or second.
🕒 Counter of arbitration situations
For each trading pair, the table below the Buy row shows the number of arbitrage situations that have been on the asset for a certain period of time. In this case, an arbitrage situation is understood as the moment when the spread value exceeded the Signal Threshold Level set by the user. Each time the spread value of the Signal Threshold Level is exceeded, the counter will add one. The counter takes into account only those arbitrage situations that were on the market during the time period back from the current moment. For example, for a 1-hour period (1h) of the counter, the number of arbitration situations for the last hour will be displayed. For each asset you can simultaneously track the number of arbitrage situations during three selected time periods from 5 minutes to a day.
The counter will allow you to evaluate the prospects of arbitrage of selected trading pairs. For example, if the number of arbitrage situations on a trading pair was 1-2 within an hour, then it is obvious that it is better not to waste time waiting for another such situation on this pair and look for the next one.
🔔 Setting up Alerts
In the script settings, you can set the threshold value of the spread – Spread Signal Threshold. When this level is reached, the table related to the asset whose spread has reached this level will be highlighted. Also, this level is a signal level for setting up alerts from the indicator.
To set up alerts, open the Alerts tab in the TradingView menu on the right. Click the "Create Alert" button. Then, in the window that opens, select this indicator in the "Condition" line. After that, you can set a name for this alert and complete the notification setup by clicking the "Create" button.
We, the authors of this script, have been engaged in cryptocurrency arbitrage for a long time and, first of all, created it for ourselves and our daily arbitrage trading, but this does not prevent you from using it at your discretion for any types of assets and in any markets.
We have a lighter version of the indicator that allows you to track the spread for only one trading pair or three at the same time. In these versions you can also view the chart of the spread itself, which can be useful for assessing the nature of the spread movement in the history. If this indicator seems too heavy for you and your device, you can use these lighter versions:
🧩 Arbitrage Spread v1 : 1 pair + 1 chart
🧩 Arbitrage Spread v2 : 3 pairs + 3 charts
If, on the contrary, the capabilities of your hardware allow, do not forget that you can always add several indicators to your screen – for example, use the version with 12 pairs as a dashboard with many pairs, and in addition to it one of the versions with a spread chart and look at a more detailed picture of one or three instruments separately.
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Данный индикатор позволяет отслеживать в реальном времени изменение спреда (разницы в курсе) между двумя активами одновременно для 12 торговых пар.
⚙️ Как устроен индикатор?
В меню настроек индикатора пользователь выбирает две торговые пары, например BTCUSDT на бирже Binance и BTCUSDT на бирже Bybit, после чего скрипт получит цены с обеих бирж и сравнит их между собой, рассчитав процентное отклонение между ценами (спред). Такую работу скрипт проделает со всеми 12 торговыми парами добавленными в меню настроек скрипта. Скрипт может работать только с теми активами и биржами, которые есть на борту TradingView, и это не мало.
⚡️ Как пользоваться?
В моменты, когда значение спреда отрицательное, это означает, что цена на актив на первой бирже меньше, чем на второй. То есть, купив актив на первой бирже и продав его на второй можно заработать (конечно при этом важно учитывать комиссии бирж на совершение данных сделок). Когда спред выше нуля - наоборот. Биржи и цены, по которым надо покупать отображаются в зеленой строке Buy. Цены и биржи для продажи – в строке Sell и выделены красным цветом. Когда спред равен нулю – цены на обеих биржах одинаковы и арбитражная ситуация отсутствует.
Для повышения точности работы индикатора старайтесь использовать минимально доступный для вашей подписки TradingView таймфрейм – минутный или секундный.
🕒 Счетчик арбитражных ситуаций
По каждой торговой паре в таблице под строкой Buy отображается количество арбитражных ситуаций, которые были на инструменте в течение определенного промежутка времени. В данном случае под арбитражной ситуацией понимается момент, когда значение спреда превысило установленный пользователем сигнальный уровень спреда Signal Threshold Level. При каждом превышении значения спреда уровня Signal Threshold Level счетчик будет прибавлять единицу. Счетчик учитывает только те арбитражные ситуации, которые были на рынке в течение временного периода назад от текущего момента. К примеру, для 1-часового периода (1h) счетчика будет отображаться количество арбитражных ситуаций за последний час. По каждому инструменту одновременно можно отслеживать количество арбитражных ситуаций в течение трех выбранных временных периода от 5 минут до суток.
Счетчик позволит оценить перспективность арбитража выбранных торговых пар. К примеру, если количество арбитражных ситуаций на торговой паре в течение часа было 1-2, то очевидно, что лучше не тратить время на ожидание очередной такой ситуации на данной паре и поискать следующую.
🔔 Настройка оповещений
В настройках скрипта можно настроить пороговое значение спреда – Spread Signal Threshold. При достижении этого уровня будет подсвечена таблица относящаяся к активу, спред которого достиг этого уровня. Так же, этот уровень является сигнальным для настройки оповещений от индикатора.
Для настройки оповещений откройте вкладку «Оповещения» в меню TradingView справа. Нажмите кнопку «Создать оповещение». Затем в открывшемся окне в строке «Условие» выберете данный индикатор. После чего вы можете задать название данному оповещению и завершить настройку оповещения, нажав кнопку «Создать».
Мы, авторы данного скрипта, давно занимаемся арбитражем криптовалюты и, в первую очередь, создавали его для себя и своей каждодневной арбитражной торговли, но это не мешает вам использовать его по своему усмотрению для любых видов активов и на любых рынках.
У нас есть более легкая версия индикатора, позволяющая отслеживать спред только по одной торговой паре или одновременно по трем. В этих версиях также можно просматривать график самого спреда, что может быть полезным для оценки характера движения спреда в истории. Если данный индикатор покажется для вас и вашего устройства слишком тяжелым вы можете воспользоваться этими более легкими версиями:
🧩 Arbitrage Spread v1 : 1 pair + 1 chart
🧩 Arbitrage Spread v2 : 3 pairs + 3 charts
Если, наоборот, возможности вашего железа позволяют, не забывайте, что вы всегда можете добавить себе на экран несколько индикаторов – например, версию с 12 парами использовать как дашборд с множеством пар, а в дополнение к ней одну из версий с графиком спреда и смотреть более детальную картину по одному или трем инструментам отдельно.
