Enhanced Retail vs Institutional Activity

ontem

This script highlights market activity in real-time, making it easier to infer the type of market participants driving price and volume changes.

Here’s a list of what the script analyzes:

Volume:
Current volume of the candle.
Moving average of volume over a specified number of periods.
Volume spikes: Current volume compared to a threshold multiple of the moving average.

Price Movement:
Percentage change in price between the current and previous candle.
Identifies significant price changes based on a user-defined threshold.

Institutional Activity:
High volume spikes combined with significant price movements.

Retail Activity:
Periods without volume spikes or significant price changes.

VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price):
The average traded price over a specified lookback period, weighted by volume, used as a benchmark.

Market Context Visualization:
Background colors to differentiate institutional (red) and retail (green) activity.
Overlays for:
-Volume bars.
-Average volume line.
-VWAP line.

In summary:
Red = Institutional activity: High volume + significant price change.
Green = Retail activity: Low volume or insignificant price change.
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Analysis Explanation:

I’m forecasting that Bitcoin will retest its November 12th low (~$85,098.75) around January 20th, 2025, where the horizontal support line intersects with the downtrend line. This conclusion is based on the following:

Trend Analysis:

The chart shows a clear downtrend with price respecting the descending trendline.
The intersection of the horizontal support and the downtrend line on January 20th indicates a confluence point where price action may gravitate.
Volume and Activity Insights:

Using the Retail vs Institutional Activity indicator, the chart highlights periods dominated by institutional (red background) or retail (green background) activity.
Current price action is in a green zone, suggesting predominantly retail participation with lower volume and insignificant price movements.
Retail vs Institutional Dynamics:

Institutional activity (red zones) aligns with significant price movements and volume spikes, often marking key turning points or trends.
The recent green retail-dominated periods suggest a lack of strong momentum, which may lead to continued price decline until institutions re-enter around the confluence area.
Volume Observations:

Volume remains relatively low during the current retail phase, indicating weak buying pressure.
A potential surge in institutional activity (red zones) near the support level could trigger a rebound or breakdown.

I expect Bitcoin’s price to drop further and test the November 12th low near $85,098.75 on January 20th, 2025. This projection is supported by the convergence of the downtrend line and horizontal support, low retail-driven volume, and historical institutional activity patterns observed using the "Retail vs Institutional Activity" indicator.