Anchored VWAP Magnetized [Probalist Essentials]Anchored VWAP Magnetized tracks volume-weighted average price from a chosen anchor point — session open, week start, month start, or a specific date — with ±1σ and ±2σ standard-deviation bands drawn around it. Price gravitates back toward VWAP over time; the deviation bands show how far it has stretched from that fair value.
The script is for any trader who uses VWAP as a reference — intraday, swing, or positional. The outer band is the headline: a confirmed close beyond ±2σ is the primary fade signal, and the script tracks what actually happened after those touches on your specific chart and timeframe, showing the result as a distribution.
🟡 WHY THIS VERSION
The deviation bands and the probability read together are what make this version worth keeping. Most AVWAP scripts just draw the line. This one shows where the outer band was breached historically, measures how far price moved back toward VWAP after each touch, and gives you a distribution — median, win rate, recent form — so you can see whether fading the outer band has actually worked on the thing you're trading. The heat-coloured wave tells you at a glance where price stands relative to the bands. Alerts fire on confirmed closes only, so no ghost signals. And the recent-form read watches for regime shifts — a strategy that worked for six months might have cooled, and the edge clock tells you how fresh the current read is.
🟡 HOW IT WORKS
VWAP from an anchor is a running weighted average: each bar contributes (typical_price × volume) to the cumulative sum, divided by cumulative volume. The deviation uses the computational variance formula — E − E ² — which avoids a second pass over the data and stays accurate as the anchor window grows. Both accumulators reset whenever the anchor condition fires (new session, week, month, or custom date). The bands are simply VWAP ± N × deviation, where N defaults to 1 and 2. The primary signal is a confirmed close beyond the outer band, treated as a fade signal: when price stretches that far from volume-weighted fair value, the historical tendency on most instruments is mean reversion. The probability layer records the forward %-return (in signal direction) for every past touch, computes a kernel-smoothed density, and shows the result as a bell curve anchored to the right of the chart.
🟡 KEY FEATURES
Session / week / month / custom-date anchor with one selector — the killer extra
±1σ and ±2σ standard-deviation bands from the same anchor-reset accumulation
Heat-coloured AVWAP wave — orange/amber when price runs above, blue when below
Outer-band-touch fade signal with 3-tier strength dots and hover tooltips
Magnet-regime detection: when BOTH fade directions are backed by recent form, the Read names it — a ranging market where price gets pulled back to the VWAP from both sides
Probability distribution: kernel-smoothed bell curve of past outer-band-touch outcomes, per direction
Separate bull / bear outcome arrays — no dilution of a one-sided edge
Recent-form Wilson verdict and edge clock — flags regime shifts
Compact mini-readout anchored to chart (scrolls with history, not screen-docked)
Forward projection cone from the last signal, scaled to price space
Evidence-gated alerts that fire only when the chart's own history backed follow-through
🟡 HOW TO USE
Use the AVWAP line as dynamic fair value: price above it = bullish bias, below = bearish. The heat colour gives the read instantly.
The ±1σ bands define the typical range for the anchor period. Most price action stays inside them; a touch is a stretch, not a signal by itself.
A confirmed close beyond the ±2σ band is the fade signal — bearish bias when above, bullish when below. The dot size encodes how far beyond the band the close landed; larger dots = deeper excursion.
Check the mini-readout before acting. If the stats show 'no edge in history here — treat as noise', the band touch has not reliably led to mean reversion on this chart. If it shows recent form backs it, the recent regime has been supportive of fades.
The probability read is descriptive — it counts past outcomes on this chart and timeframe. It is not a prediction. A median of +0.3% on a 15-minute chart may not survive round-trip costs on most venues; the read is about directional bias, not net P&L.
Use the anchor dropdown to match your trading frame: Session for intraday, Week for swing, Month for positional. Custom anchor lets you pin to a specific structural event (earnings, news, key pivot).
Set alerts on the evidence-gated variants ('history-backed') rather than the raw band touch — they fire only when the recent regime has supported follow-through.
When the Read shows the magnet regime (both fades backed), trade the bands and distrust breakouts — the chart's own record says price has been snapping back to the VWAP from both sides
Weigh the median move against your round-trip costs — a backed fade with a tiny median (say +0.06% on a 15-minute chart) doesn't survive fees and spread on most venues; the edge read is about direction, not net profit
🟡 PAIRS WELL WITH
AVWAP works well alongside a trend filter — a simple MA slope or Supertrend tells you whether fades are against a strong trend (lower probability) or in a ranging / mean-reverting environment (higher probability). A momentum oscillator like RSI adds confluence on the signal bar: an outer-band touch with RSI already oversold/overbought is a tighter read than a touch alone. For intraday use, the session VWAP from the exchange feed can run alongside as a second reference for where the day's institutional activity is anchored. Key horizontal S/R levels are a natural complement — a band touch that coincides with a known support or resistance zone is a stronger candidate for a fade than one in open air.
Anchored VWAP Magnetized gives you the classic tool — volume-weighted fair value from the anchor you choose, with deviation bands showing the stretch — plus an honest count of what past band touches actually led to on your chart. The wave colour, the distribution panel, and the edge clock together turn a standard reference line into a read you can interrogate.
Open source under MPL-2.0. The probability layer describes past signals on your chart — it is a measurement, not a prediction, and nothing here is financial advice.
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