Post-Fed Update: Ignore Fed Red

3 de mai. de 2023

We likely just finished Minor wave 2 with the low today or if another low is reached shortly after the open. The prior low at 4049 is the level to watch. A drop below this would likely place us on my prior analysis PATH TWO and continue Intermediate wave 2.

Intermediate wave 3 still remains the likely location and the drop today would have been the Minute wave C we needed to finish Minor wave 2. As of now, strongest model agreement has Minor wave 3 lasting 6 days with next strongest models at 4 days. For waves ending in C33, first quartile move extension would be 150.48% of Minor wave 1, with the median move at 202% and third quartile at 396.60%. There is a horizontal trendline just above 202% so the end of wave three will likely remain below 4330. The drop today presents plenty of ground to be gained starting tomorrow.

The overall end of Intermediate wave 3 could occur sometime before the final week in May. Right now the final market top appears on track for mid-June so a debt ceiling issue by June 1 may not be likely....yet.

I should provide another update around the middle of next week if not one over the weekend.

5 de mai. de 2023

Nota

PATH TWO may be the winner from the analysis the other day now that the market drop beneath 4049. We cannot possibly be in Minor wave 2 of Intermediate wave 3. Instead we are still in Intermediate wave 2 meaning the market top should not occur until mid-July. Could drop again tomorrow but the likely floor is 4000 and it is also possible the low from May the 4th was the end of Intermediate wave 2. Regardless, next week should be a up week.