#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD Are We There Yet? A Year Later
The question on everyone's lips, are we there yet? Is the #BearMarket bottom in?
Almost 1 year ago to the day I shared my Bitcoin bottoms up idea:
Which used Ben Cowen's risk indicator to indicate the bottom or top of the Bitcoin market waves.
The theory for using this indicator is as follows:
1. Bottoms must be below 0.20
2. Tops must be over 0.85
3. Anything below 0.60 but over 0.20 is accumulation
As you can see the indicator called the following tops and bottoms:
2011 Bear Market Bottom
2013 Bull Market Top
2015 Bear Market Bottom
2017 Bull Market Top
2018 Bear Market Bottom
2020 Covid-19 Crash Bottom (Black Swan Event)
2021 Bull Market Top
That means that this theory of use for the indicator has correctly identified every significant bottom or top since 2011 apart from the November 2021 blow off.
While the November 2021 blow off top is not completely insignificant many do not count this as the top from a technical point of view and there are a host of valid reasons for that.
If we take a look to the present day we can see that between the end of June and October 2022 the indicator dropped below 0.20, which begs the question, was that the bottom?
I have marked 14th November 2022 as the possible bottom and there are strong indications that this is the case. However, what we must remember is the wider picture and the likely recession that is incoming (Bitcoin has never experienced a recession so will be unprecedented times).
I therefore believe we will see an accumulation phase, without breaking above the 0.60 level before returning back down for one final plummet to put in a further low (in much the same way we put in a higher high after the top was called in late 2021).
For me the sensible play is to allow the time to pass more before entering the market, as mentioned these are unprecedented times, with the Ukraine/Russia war and looming recession. The risk of further lows is far higher than the possible risk of not catching the exact bottom price in my opinion. Having said that if you did enter around 15.5, and I know some who did, you cannot say it was a bad move at all.
Let me know what you think
Almost 1 year ago to the day I shared my Bitcoin bottoms up idea:
Which used Ben Cowen's risk indicator to indicate the bottom or top of the Bitcoin market waves.
The theory for using this indicator is as follows:
1. Bottoms must be below 0.20
2. Tops must be over 0.85
3. Anything below 0.60 but over 0.20 is accumulation
As you can see the indicator called the following tops and bottoms:
2011 Bear Market Bottom
2013 Bull Market Top
2015 Bear Market Bottom
2017 Bull Market Top
2018 Bear Market Bottom
2020 Covid-19 Crash Bottom (Black Swan Event)
2021 Bull Market Top
That means that this theory of use for the indicator has correctly identified every significant bottom or top since 2011 apart from the November 2021 blow off.
While the November 2021 blow off top is not completely insignificant many do not count this as the top from a technical point of view and there are a host of valid reasons for that.
If we take a look to the present day we can see that between the end of June and October 2022 the indicator dropped below 0.20, which begs the question, was that the bottom?
I have marked 14th November 2022 as the possible bottom and there are strong indications that this is the case. However, what we must remember is the wider picture and the likely recession that is incoming (Bitcoin has never experienced a recession so will be unprecedented times).
I therefore believe we will see an accumulation phase, without breaking above the 0.60 level before returning back down for one final plummet to put in a further low (in much the same way we put in a higher high after the top was called in late 2021).
For me the sensible play is to allow the time to pass more before entering the market, as mentioned these are unprecedented times, with the Ukraine/Russia war and looming recession. The risk of further lows is far higher than the possible risk of not catching the exact bottom price in my opinion. Having said that if you did enter around 15.5, and I know some who did, you cannot say it was a bad move at all.
Let me know what you think
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