Apple AAPL - Looks Fine on the Outside, but Tastes Weird
Atualizado
After last year's massive heat damage to Canada's fruit crops, there were some cherries I bought at the farmer's market from British Columbia that looked totally fine by any reasonable inspection. Whether you squeezed it, touched it, looked at it, smelled it, or cut it open, everything appeared to be fine.
But once you bit into it, it had this twisted, sour sort of taste with these fungal notes that was really not particularly pleasant. I've never experienced fruit with a characteristic like that, and made me not buy any this year.
Apple AAPL's price action is very much analogous to last year's heat damaged fruit.
What was Apple really doing over these last two months of going up in a straight line, and coming so close, yet so far, to making a new all time high?
Apparently, it was merely filling the gap left behind from March and April when everything started dumping 20 or 30 percent.
Note: the gap box was created based on daily candles, which likewise formed bodies which respected the space.
Frankly speaking, this is anything but bullish. An expectation that Apple is going to turn around and break $180 during the next few months is curiously unrealistic and likely to be a leading cause of margin calls and liquidations.
Even at prices as low as $152, Apple is still trading at a premium inside of this multi-month dealing range.
So, if price action across indexes and markets really gives us the whipsaw effect I expect this week:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
Then Apple may very well give you a chance to fill in that August gap at $162. Many will see this as a buying opportunity, with the number $180 greedily illuminating their eyes.
But the real numbers to keep an eye on is $149, and then $141, and then $133.
Even if things aren't so bad for the bulls and there is no major market correction, one should really expect to see prices such as the above manifest before any further bull action, considering the fact Apple just went up in a straight line for two months with no challenge whatsoever.
All of this means that, when looked at correctly, a revisitation of $162 gives a particularly pleasant short opportunity.
And considering that Apple, which just keeps rehashing the same crappy phone with a really nice screen and the same super expensive desktop computer that runs OSX with a really nice monitor, more or less bolsters and drives the Nasdaq, and thereby all the languishing and floundering Big Tech meme stocks, life may not be so pleasant for those who have become fat and comfortable in the old paradigm.
I've also forecasted that Tesla TSLA is also a legitimate canary in the coalmine, serving as a harbinger of the doom that lies ahead.
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine
And that VIX is legit due to print a 72, just who knows when, exactly?
VIX - 9x8 = 72
A question to bulls: why are you getting long on equities at high prices and refusing to sell at a profit when the world is in the shape it is in? Are you simply unwilling to let go of the delusion?
Cash is King, and you at least need to hedge.
Be careful. Gap downs today may become tomorrow's eternal losses.
But once you bit into it, it had this twisted, sour sort of taste with these fungal notes that was really not particularly pleasant. I've never experienced fruit with a characteristic like that, and made me not buy any this year.
Apple AAPL's price action is very much analogous to last year's heat damaged fruit.
What was Apple really doing over these last two months of going up in a straight line, and coming so close, yet so far, to making a new all time high?
Apparently, it was merely filling the gap left behind from March and April when everything started dumping 20 or 30 percent.
Note: the gap box was created based on daily candles, which likewise formed bodies which respected the space.
Frankly speaking, this is anything but bullish. An expectation that Apple is going to turn around and break $180 during the next few months is curiously unrealistic and likely to be a leading cause of margin calls and liquidations.
Even at prices as low as $152, Apple is still trading at a premium inside of this multi-month dealing range.
So, if price action across indexes and markets really gives us the whipsaw effect I expect this week:
SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws
Then Apple may very well give you a chance to fill in that August gap at $162. Many will see this as a buying opportunity, with the number $180 greedily illuminating their eyes.
But the real numbers to keep an eye on is $149, and then $141, and then $133.
Even if things aren't so bad for the bulls and there is no major market correction, one should really expect to see prices such as the above manifest before any further bull action, considering the fact Apple just went up in a straight line for two months with no challenge whatsoever.
All of this means that, when looked at correctly, a revisitation of $162 gives a particularly pleasant short opportunity.
And considering that Apple, which just keeps rehashing the same crappy phone with a really nice screen and the same super expensive desktop computer that runs OSX with a really nice monitor, more or less bolsters and drives the Nasdaq, and thereby all the languishing and floundering Big Tech meme stocks, life may not be so pleasant for those who have become fat and comfortable in the old paradigm.
I've also forecasted that Tesla TSLA is also a legitimate canary in the coalmine, serving as a harbinger of the doom that lies ahead.
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal Mine
And that VIX is legit due to print a 72, just who knows when, exactly?
VIX - 9x8 = 72
A question to bulls: why are you getting long on equities at high prices and refusing to sell at a profit when the world is in the shape it is in? Are you simply unwilling to let go of the delusion?
Cash is King, and you at least need to hedge.
Be careful. Gap downs today may become tomorrow's eternal losses.
Nota
Big momentum breaker dumps tend to indicate more movement to the downside, rather than a dip to buy. Three more days of big economic calendar news coming this week, and FOMC next week.
Apple short looking good though
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