Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform of Filtered Price [Loxx]Down the Rabbit Hole We Go: A Deep Dive into the Mysteries of Quinn-Fernandes Fast Fourier Transform and Hodrick-Prescott Filtering
In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, the ability to accurately identify and exploit underlying market patterns is of paramount importance. As market participants continuously search for innovative tools to gain an edge in their trading and investment strategies, advanced mathematical techniques, such as the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter, have emerged as powerful analytical tools. This comprehensive analysis aims to delve into the rich history and theoretical foundations of these techniques, exploring their applications in financial time series analysis, particularly in the context of a sophisticated trading indicator. Furthermore, we will critically assess the limitations and challenges associated with these transformative tools, while offering practical insights and recommendations for overcoming these hurdles to maximize their potential in the financial domain.
Our investigation will begin with a comprehensive examination of the origins and development of both the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter. We will trace their roots from classical Fourier analysis and time series smoothing to their modern-day adaptive iterations. We will elucidate the key concepts and mathematical underpinnings of these techniques and demonstrate how they are synergistically used in the context of the trading indicator under study.
As we progress, we will carefully consider the potential drawbacks and challenges associated with using the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter as integral components of a trading indicator. By providing a critical evaluation of their computational complexity, sensitivity to input parameters, assumptions about data stationarity, performance in noisy environments, and their nature as lagging indicators, we aim to offer a balanced and comprehensive understanding of these powerful analytical tools.
In conclusion, this in-depth analysis of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter aims to provide a solid foundation for financial market participants seeking to harness the potential of these advanced techniques in their trading and investment strategies. By shedding light on their history, applications, and limitations, we hope to equip traders and investors with the knowledge and insights necessary to make informed decisions and, ultimately, achieve greater success in the highly competitive world of finance.
█ Fourier Transform and Hodrick-Prescott Filter in Financial Time Series Analysis
Financial time series analysis plays a crucial role in making informed decisions about investments and trading strategies. Among the various methods used in this domain, the Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) Filter have emerged as powerful techniques for processing and analyzing financial data. This section aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of these two methodologies, their significance in financial time series analysis, and their combined application to enhance trading strategies.
█ The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform: History, Applications, and Use in Financial Time Series Analysis
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is an advanced spectral estimation technique developed by John J. Quinn and Mauricio A. Fernandes in the early 1990s. It builds upon the classical Fourier Transform by introducing an adaptive approach that improves the identification of dominant frequencies in noisy signals. This section will explore the history of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform, its applications in various domains, and its specific use in financial time series analysis.
History of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform was introduced in a 1993 paper titled "The Application of Adaptive Estimation to the Interpolation of Missing Values in Noisy Signals." In this paper, Quinn and Fernandes developed an adaptive spectral estimation algorithm to address the limitations of the classical Fourier Transform when analyzing noisy signals.
The classical Fourier Transform is a powerful mathematical tool that decomposes a function or a time series into a sum of sinusoids, making it easier to identify underlying patterns and trends. However, its performance can be negatively impacted by noise and missing data points, leading to inaccurate frequency identification.
Quinn and Fernandes sought to address these issues by developing an adaptive algorithm that could more accurately identify the dominant frequencies in a noisy signal, even when data points were missing. This adaptive algorithm, now known as the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform, employs an iterative approach to refine the frequency estimates, ultimately resulting in improved spectral estimation.
Applications of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform has found applications in various fields, including signal processing, telecommunications, geophysics, and biomedical engineering. Its ability to accurately identify dominant frequencies in noisy signals makes it a valuable tool for analyzing and interpreting data in these domains.
For example, in telecommunications, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform can be used to analyze the performance of communication systems and identify interference patterns. In geophysics, it can help detect and analyze seismic signals and vibrations, leading to improved understanding of geological processes. In biomedical engineering, the technique can be employed to analyze physiological signals, such as electrocardiograms, leading to more accurate diagnoses and better patient care.
Use of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform in Financial Time Series Analysis
In financial time series analysis, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform can be a powerful tool for isolating the dominant cycles and frequencies in asset price data. By more accurately identifying these critical cycles, traders can better understand the underlying dynamics of financial markets and develop more effective trading strategies.
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is used in conjunction with the Hodrick-Prescott Filter, a technique that separates the underlying trend from the cyclical component in a time series. By first applying the Hodrick-Prescott Filter to the financial data, short-term fluctuations and noise are removed, resulting in a smoothed representation of the underlying trend. This smoothed data is then subjected to the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform, allowing for more accurate identification of the dominant cycles and frequencies in the asset price data.
By employing the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform in this manner, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics of financial time series and develop more effective trading strategies. The enhanced knowledge of market cycles and frequencies can lead to improved risk management and ultimately, better investment performance.
The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is an advanced spectral estimation technique that has proven valuable in various domains, including financial time series analysis. Its adaptive approach to frequency identification addresses the limitations of the classical Fourier Transform when analyzing noisy signals, leading to more accurate and reliable analysis. By employing the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform in financial time series analysis, traders can gain a deeper understanding of the underlying financial instrument.
Drawbacks to the Quinn-Fernandes algorithm
While the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is an effective tool for identifying dominant cycles and frequencies in financial time series, it is not without its drawbacks. Some of the limitations and challenges associated with this indicator include:
1. Computational complexity: The adaptive nature of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform requires iterative calculations, which can lead to increased computational complexity. This can be particularly challenging when analyzing large datasets or when the indicator is used in real-time trading environments.
2. Sensitivity to input parameters: The performance of the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is dependent on the choice of input parameters, such as the number of harmonic periods, frequency tolerance, and Hodrick-Prescott filter settings. Choosing inappropriate parameter values can lead to inaccurate frequency identification or reduced performance. Finding the optimal parameter settings can be challenging, and may require trial and error or a more sophisticated optimization process.
3. Assumption of stationary data: The Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform assumes that the underlying data is stationary, meaning that its statistical properties do not change over time. However, financial time series data is often non-stationary, with changing trends and volatility. This can limit the effectiveness of the indicator and may require additional preprocessing steps, such as detrending or differencing, to ensure the data meets the assumptions of the algorithm.
4. Limitations in noisy environments: Although the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is designed to handle noisy signals, its performance may still be negatively impacted by significant noise levels. In such cases, the identification of dominant frequencies may become less reliable, leading to suboptimal trading signals or strategies.
5. Lagging indicator: As with many technical analysis tools, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform is a lagging indicator, meaning that it is based on past data. While it can provide valuable insights into historical market dynamics, its ability to predict future price movements may be limited. This can result in false signals or late entries and exits, potentially reducing the effectiveness of trading strategies based on this indicator.
Despite these drawbacks, the Quinn-Fernandes Fourier Transform remains a valuable tool for financial time series analysis when used appropriately. By being aware of its limitations and adjusting input parameters or preprocessing steps as needed, traders can still benefit from its ability to identify dominant cycles and frequencies in financial data, and use this information to inform their trading strategies.
█ Deep-dive into the Hodrick-Prescott Fitler
The Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is a statistical tool used in economics and finance to separate a time series into two components: a trend component and a cyclical component. It is a powerful tool for identifying long-term trends in economic and financial data and is widely used by economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
The HP filter was first introduced in the 1990s by economists Robert Hodrick and Edward Prescott. It is a simple, two-parameter filter that separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component. The trend component represents the long-term behavior of the data, while the cyclical component captures the shorter-term fluctuations around the trend.
The HP filter works by minimizing the following objective function:
Minimize: (Sum of Squared Deviations) + λ (Sum of Squared Second Differences)
Where:
1. The first term represents the deviation of the data from the trend.
2. The second term represents the smoothness of the trend.
3. λ is a smoothing parameter that determines the degree of smoothness of the trend.
The smoothing parameter λ is typically set to a value between 100 and 1600, depending on the frequency of the data. Higher values of λ lead to a smoother trend, while lower values lead to a more volatile trend.
The HP filter has several advantages over other smoothing techniques. It is a non-parametric method, meaning that it does not make any assumptions about the underlying distribution of the data. It also allows for easy comparison of trends across different time series and can be used with data of any frequency.
Another significant advantage of the HP Filter is its ability to adapt to changes in the underlying trend. This feature makes it particularly well-suited for analyzing financial time series, which often exhibit non-stationary behavior. By employing the HP Filter to smooth financial data, traders can more accurately identify and analyze the long-term trends that drive asset prices, ultimately leading to better-informed investment decisions.
However, the HP filter also has some limitations. It assumes that the trend is a smooth function, which may not be the case in some situations. It can also be sensitive to changes in the smoothing parameter λ, which may result in different trends for the same data. Additionally, the filter may produce unrealistic trends for very short time series.
Despite these limitations, the HP filter remains a valuable tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It is widely used by central banks and financial institutions to monitor long-term trends in the economy, and it can be used to identify turning points in the business cycle. The filter can also be used to analyze asset prices, exchange rates, and other financial variables.
The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a powerful tool for analyzing economic and financial data. It separates a time series into a trend component and a cyclical component, allowing for easy identification of long-term trends and turning points in the business cycle. While it has some limitations, it remains a valuable tool for economists, central banks, and financial institutions around the world.
█ Combined Application of Fourier Transform and Hodrick-Prescott Filter
The integration of the Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter in financial time series analysis can offer several benefits. By first applying the HP Filter to the financial data, traders can remove short-term fluctuations and noise, effectively isolating the underlying trend. This smoothed data can then be subjected to the Fourier Transform, allowing for the identification of dominant cycles and frequencies with greater precision.
By combining these two powerful techniques, traders can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the underlying dynamics of financial time series. This enhanced knowledge can lead to the development of more effective trading strategies, better risk management, and ultimately, improved investment performance.
The Fourier Transform and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter are powerful tools for financial time series analysis. Each technique offers unique benefits, with the Fourier Transform being adept at identifying dominant cycles and frequencies, and the HP Filter excelling at isolating long-term trends from short-term noise. By combining these methodologies, traders can develop a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics of financial time series, leading to more informed investment decisions and improved trading strategies. As the financial markets continue to evolve, the combined application of these techniques will undoubtedly remain an essential aspect of modern financial analysis.
█ Features
Endpointed and Non-repainting
This is an endpointed and non-repainting indicator. These are crucial factors that contribute to its usefulness and reliability in trading and investment strategies. Let us break down these concepts and discuss why they matter in the context of a financial indicator.
1. Endpoint nature: An endpoint indicator uses the most recent data points to calculate its values, ensuring that the output is timely and reflective of the current market conditions. This is in contrast to non-endpoint indicators, which may use earlier data points in their calculations, potentially leading to less timely or less relevant results. By utilizing the most recent data available, the endpoint nature of this indicator ensures that it remains up-to-date and relevant, providing traders and investors with valuable and actionable insights into the market dynamics.
2. Non-repainting characteristic: A non-repainting indicator is one that does not change its values or signals after they have been generated. This means that once a signal or a value has been plotted on the chart, it will remain there, and future data will not affect it. This is crucial for traders and investors, as it offers a sense of consistency and certainty when making decisions based on the indicator's output.
Repainting indicators, on the other hand, can change their values or signals as new data comes in, effectively "repainting" the past. This can be problematic for several reasons:
a. Misleading results: Repainting indicators can create the illusion of a highly accurate or successful trading system when backtesting, as the indicator may adapt its past signals to fit the historical price data. This can lead to overly optimistic performance results that may not hold up in real-time trading.
b. Decision-making uncertainty: When an indicator repaints, it becomes challenging for traders and investors to trust its signals, as the signal that prompted a trade may change or disappear after the fact. This can create confusion and indecision, making it difficult to execute a consistent trading strategy.
The endpoint and non-repainting characteristics of this indicator contribute to its overall reliability and effectiveness as a tool for trading and investment decision-making. By providing timely and consistent information, this indicator helps traders and investors make well-informed decisions that are less likely to be influenced by misleading or shifting data.
Inputs
Source: This input determines the source of the price data to be used for the calculations. Users can select from options like closing price, opening price, high, low, etc., based on their preferences. Changing the source of the price data (e.g., from closing price to opening price) will alter the base data used for calculations, which may lead to different patterns and cycles being identified.
Calculation Bars: This input represents the number of past bars used for the calculation. A higher value will use more historical data for the analysis, while a lower value will focus on more recent price data. Increasing the number of past bars used for calculation will incorporate more historical data into the analysis. This may lead to a more comprehensive understanding of long-term trends but could also result in a slower response to recent price changes. Decreasing this value will focus more on recent data, potentially making the indicator more responsive to short-term fluctuations.
Harmonic Period: This input represents the harmonic period, which is the number of harmonics used in the Fourier Transform. A higher value will result in more harmonics being used, potentially capturing more complex cycles in the price data. Increasing the harmonic period will include more harmonics in the Fourier Transform, potentially capturing more complex cycles in the price data. However, this may also introduce more noise and make it harder to identify clear patterns. Decreasing this value will focus on simpler cycles and may make the analysis clearer, but it might miss out on more complex patterns.
Frequency Tolerance: This input represents the frequency tolerance, which determines how close the frequencies of the harmonics must be to be considered part of the same cycle. A higher value will allow for more variation between harmonics, while a lower value will require the frequencies to be more similar. Increasing the frequency tolerance will allow for more variation between harmonics, potentially capturing a broader range of cycles. However, this may also introduce noise and make it more difficult to identify clear patterns. Decreasing this value will require the frequencies to be more similar, potentially making the analysis clearer, but it might miss out on some cycles.
Number of Bars to Render: This input determines the number of bars to render on the chart. A higher value will result in more historical data being displayed, but it may also slow down the computation due to the increased amount of data being processed. Increasing the number of bars to render on the chart will display more historical data, providing a broader context for the analysis. However, this may also slow down the computation due to the increased amount of data being processed. Decreasing this value will speed up the computation, but it will provide less historical context for the analysis.
Smoothing Mode: This input allows the user to choose between two smoothing modes for the source price data: no smoothing or Hodrick-Prescott (HP) smoothing. The choice depends on the user's preference for how the price data should be processed before the Fourier Transform is applied. Choosing between no smoothing and Hodrick-Prescott (HP) smoothing will affect the preprocessing of the price data. Using HP smoothing will remove some of the short-term fluctuations from the data, potentially making the analysis clearer and more focused on longer-term trends. Not using smoothing will retain the original price fluctuations, which may provide more detail but also introduce noise into the analysis.
Hodrick-Prescott Filter Period: This input represents the Hodrick-Prescott filter period, which is used if the user chooses to apply HP smoothing to the price data. A higher value will result in a smoother curve, while a lower value will retain more of the original price fluctuations. Increasing the Hodrick-Prescott filter period will result in a smoother curve for the price data, emphasizing longer-term trends and minimizing short-term fluctuations. Decreasing this value will retain more of the original price fluctuations, potentially providing more detail but also introducing noise into the analysis.
Alets and signals
This indicator featues alerts, signals and bar coloring. You have to option to turn these on/off in the settings menu.
Maximum Bars Restriction
This indicator requires a large amount of processing power to render on the chart. To reduce overhead, the setting "Number of Bars to Render" is set to 500 bars. You can adjust this to you liking.
█ Related Indicators and Libraries
Goertzel Cycle Composite Wave
Goertzel Browser
Fourier Spectrometer of Price w/ Extrapolation Forecast
Fourier Extrapolator of 'Caterpillar' SSA of Price
Normalized, Variety, Fast Fourier Transform Explorer
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price Oscillator
Real-Fast Fourier Transform of Price w/ Linear Regression
Fourier Extrapolation of Variety Moving Averages
Fourier Extrapolator of Variety RSI w/ Bollinger Bands
Fourier Extrapolator of Price w/ Projection Forecast
Fourier Extrapolator of Price
STD-Stepped Fast Cosine Transform Moving Average
Variety RSI of Fast Discrete Cosine Transform
loxfft
Pesquisar nos scripts por "1990年+黄金价格+历史数据"
Market Crashes & Recessions (1907-Present)Included Recession Periods:
Panic of 1907 (1907–1908)
Post-WWI Recession (1918–1919)
Great Depression (1929–1933)
1937–1938 Recession
1953, 1957, & 1973 Oil Crises Recessions
Early 1980s Recession (1980–1982)
Early 1990s Recession (1990–1991)
Dot-com Bubble (2000–2002)
Global Financial Crisis (2007–2009)
COVID-19 Recession (2020)
2022 Market Correction
Interest Rate Trading (Manually Added Rate Decisions) [TANHEF]Interest Rate Trading: How Interest Rates Can Guide Your Next Move.
How were interest rate decisions added?
All interest rate decision dates were manually retrieved from the 'Record of Policy Actions' and 'Minutes of Actions' on the Federal Reserve's website due to inconsistent dates from other sources. These were manually added as Pine Script currently only identifies rate changes, not pauses.
█ Simple Explanation:
This script is designed for analyzing and backtesting trading strategies based on U.S. interest rate decisions which occur during Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, to make trading decisions. No trading strategy is perfect, and it's important to understand that expectations won't always play out. The script leverages historical interest rate changes, including increases, decreases, and pauses, across multiple economic time periods from 1971 to the present. The tool integrates two key data sources for interest rates—USINTR and FEDFUNDS—to support decision-making around rate-based trades. The focus is on identifying opportunities and tracking trades driven by interest rate movements.
█ Interest Rate Decision Sources:
As noted above, each decision date has been manually added from the 'Record of Policy Actions' and 'Minutes of Actions' documents on the Federal Reserve's website. This includes +50 years of more than 600 rate decisions.
█ Interest Rate Data Sources:
USINTR: Reflects broader U.S. interest rate trends, including Treasury yields and various benchmarks. This is the preferred option as it corresponds well to the rate decision dates.
FEDFUNDS: Tracks the Federal Funds Rate, which is a more specific rate targeted by the Federal Reserve. This does not change on the exact same days as the rate decisions that occur at FOMC meetings.
█ Trade Criteria:
A variety of trading conditions are predefined to suit different trading strategies. These conditions include:
Increase/Decrease: Standard rate increases or decreases.
Double/Triple Increase/Decrease: A series of consecutive changes.
Aggressive Increase/Decrease: Rate changes that exceed recent movements.
Pause: Identification of no changes (pauses) between rate decisions, including double or triple pauses.
Complex Patterns: Combinations of pauses, increases, or decreases, such as "Pause after Increase" or "Pause or Increase."
█ Trade Execution and Exit:
The script allows automated trade execution based on selected criteria:
Auto-Entry: Option to enter trades automatically at the first valid period.
Max Trade Duration: Optional exit of trades after a specified number of bars (candles).
Pause Days: Minimum duration (in days) to validate rate pauses as entry conditions. This is especially useful for earlier periods (prior to the 2000s), where rate decisions often seemed random compared to the consistency we see today.
█ Visualization:
Several visual elements enhance the backtesting experience:
Time Period Highlighting: Economic time periods are visually segmented on the chart, each with a unique color. These periods include historical phases such as "Stagflation (1971-1982)" and "Post-Pandemic Recovery (2021-Present)".
Trade and Holding Results: Displays the profit and loss of trades and holding results directly on the chart.
Interest Rate Plot: Plots the interest rate movements on the chart, allowing for real-time tracking of rate changes.
Trade Status: Highlights active long or short positions on the chart.
█ Statistics and Criteria Display:
Stats Table: Summarizes trade results, including wins, losses, and draw percentages for both long and short trades.
Criteria Table: Lists the selected entry and exit criteria for both long and short positions.
█ Economic Time Periods:
The script organizes interest rate decisions into well-defined economic periods, allowing traders to backtest strategies specific to historical contexts like:
(1971-1982) Stagflation
(1983-1990) Reaganomics and Deregulation
(1991-1994) Early 1990s (Recession and Recovery)
(1995-2001) Dot-Com Bubble
(2001-2006) Housing Boom
(2007-2009) Global Financial Crisis
(2009-2015) Great Recession Recovery
(2015-2019) Normalization Period
(2019-2021) COVID-19 Pandemic
(2021-Present) Post-Pandemic Recovery
█ User-Configurable Inputs:
Rate Source Selection: Choose between USINTR or FEDFUNDS as the primary interest rate source.
Trade Criteria Customization: Users can select the criteria for long and short trades, specifying when to enter or exit based on changes in the interest rate.
Time Period: Select the time period that you want to isolate testing a strategy with.
Auto-Entry and Pause Settings: Options to automatically enter trades and specify the number of days to confirm a rate pause.
Max Trade Duration: Limits how long trades can remain open, defined by the number of bars.
█ Trade Logic:
The script manages entries and exits for both long and short trades. It calculates the profit or loss percentage based on the entry and exit prices. The script tracks ongoing trades, dynamically updating the profit or loss as price changes.
█ Examples:
One of the most popular opinions is that when rate starts begin you should sell, then buy back in when rate cuts stop dropping. However, this can be easily proven to be a difficult task. Predicting the end of a rate cut is very difficult to do with the the exception that assumes rates will not fall below 0.25%.
2001-2009
Trade Result: +29.85%
Holding Result: -27.74%
1971-2024
Trade Result: +533%
Holding Result: +5901%
█ Backtest and Real-Time Use:
This backtester is useful for historical analysis and real-time trading. By setting up various entry and exit rules tied to interest rate movements, traders can test and refine strategies based on real historical data and rate decision trends.
This powerful tool allows traders to customize strategies, backtest them through different economic periods, and get visual feedback on their trading performance, helping to make more informed decisions based on interest rate dynamics. The main goal of this indicator is to challenge the belief that future events must mirror the 2001 and 2007 rate cuts. If everyone expects something to happen, it usually doesn’t.
[LunaOwl] RSI 美國線 (RSI Bar, RSIB)Last year, I saw someone using the candle innovation called "RSI Candle" or "RSIC". so let me have the idea of making RSIB. the Candlestick was Steve Nison in the 1990s. He introduced the concept from Japan to America and published it in the book "Candlestick Course". Welles Wilder is the creator of the relative strength index. after several years of commodity trading, Wilder focused on technical analysis. In 1978 he published "New Concepts in the Technology Trading System". RSI is the new momentum oscillator mentioned in the book. then, if you use Bars to display RSI, it might be an artistic idea. everyone is familiar with the method of use.
以前看過人家使用 " RSI 蠟燭線 "（RSIC）的版本，於是就想做一下美國線的版本。1990年代史蒂夫．尼森將蠟燭線的概念從日本引進華爾街，並在《陰線陽線》詳細介紹；威爾德是 RSI 的作者，做商品交易的他專注於研究技術分析，1978年他出版《技術交易系統新概念》提到了這個。如果用美國線表示 RSI 會是另一個模樣。至於它的用法大家都很熟悉了。
The purpose of publishing Chinese Scripts is to make Pine close to more Chinese user.
發布中文腳本的目的，是希望可以讓 Pine 親近更多中文圈的使用者。
Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy - Portfolio CalculatorTHE ALL WEATHER STRATEGY INDICATOR: A GUIDE TO RAY DALIO'S LEGENDARY PORTFOLIO APPROACH
Introduction: The Genesis of Financial Resilience
In the sprawling corridors of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund managing over 150 billion dollars in assets, Ray Dalio conceived what would become one of the most influential investment strategies of the modern era. The All Weather Strategy, born from decades of market observation and rigorous backtesting, represents a paradigm shift from traditional portfolio construction methods that have dominated Wall Street since Harry Markowitz's seminal work on Modern Portfolio Theory in 1952.
Unlike conventional approaches that chase returns through market timing or stock picking, the All Weather Strategy embraces a fundamental truth that has humbled countless investors throughout history: nobody can consistently predict the future direction of markets. Instead of fighting this uncertainty, Dalio's approach harnesses it, creating a portfolio designed to perform reasonably well across all economic environments, hence the evocative name "All Weather."
The strategy emerged from Bridgewater's extensive research into economic cycles and asset class behavior, culminating in what Dalio describes as "the Holy Grail of investing" in his bestselling book "Principles" (Dalio, 2017). This Holy Grail isn't about achieving spectacular returns, but rather about achieving consistent, risk-adjusted returns that compound steadily over time, much like the tortoise defeating the hare in Aesop's timeless fable.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION
The All Weather Strategy's origins trace back to the tumultuous economic periods of the 1970s and 1980s, when traditional portfolio construction methods proved inadequate for navigating simultaneous inflation and recession. Raymond Thomas Dalio, born in 1949 in Queens, New York, founded Bridgewater Associates from his Manhattan apartment in 1975, initially focusing on currency and fixed-income consulting for corporate clients.
Dalio's early experiences during the 1970s stagflation period profoundly shaped his investment philosophy. Unlike many of his contemporaries who viewed inflation and deflation as opposing forces, Dalio recognized that both conditions could coexist with either economic growth or contraction, creating four distinct economic environments rather than the traditional two-factor models that dominated academic finance.
The conceptual breakthrough came in the late 1980s when Dalio began systematically analyzing asset class performance across different economic regimes. Working with a small team of researchers, Bridgewater developed sophisticated models that decomposed economic conditions into growth and inflation components, then mapped historical asset class returns against these regimes. This research revealed that traditional portfolio construction, heavily weighted toward stocks and bonds, left investors vulnerable to specific economic scenarios.
The formal All Weather Strategy emerged in 1996 when Bridgewater was approached by a wealthy family seeking a portfolio that could protect their wealth across various economic conditions without requiring active management or market timing. Unlike Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund, which relied on active trading and leverage, the All Weather approach needed to be completely passive and unleveraged while still providing adequate diversification.
Dalio and his team spent months developing and testing various allocation schemes, ultimately settling on the 30/40/15/7.5/7.5 framework that balances risk contributions rather than dollar amounts. This approach was revolutionary because it focused on risk budgeting—ensuring that no single asset class dominated the portfolio's risk profile—rather than the traditional approach of equal dollar allocations or market-cap weighting.
The strategy's first institutional implementation began in 1996 with a family office client, followed by gradual expansion to other wealthy families and eventually institutional investors. By 2005, Bridgewater was managing over $15 billion in All Weather assets, making it one of the largest systematic strategy implementations in institutional investing.
The 2008 financial crisis provided the ultimate test of the All Weather methodology. While the S&P 500 declined by 37% and many hedge funds suffered double-digit losses, the All Weather strategy generated positive returns, validating Dalio's risk-balancing approach. This performance during extreme market stress attracted significant institutional attention, leading to rapid asset growth in subsequent years.
The strategy's theoretical foundations evolved throughout the 2000s as Bridgewater's research team, led by co-chief investment officers Greg Jensen and Bob Prince, refined the economic framework and incorporated insights from behavioral economics and complexity theory. Their research, published in numerous institutional white papers, demonstrated that traditional portfolio optimization methods consistently underperformed simpler risk-balanced approaches across various time periods and market conditions.
Academic validation came through partnerships with leading business schools and collaboration with prominent economists. The strategy's risk parity principles influenced an entire generation of institutional investors, leading to the creation of numerous risk parity funds managing hundreds of billions in aggregate assets.
In recent years, the democratization of sophisticated financial tools has made All Weather-style investing accessible to individual investors through ETFs and systematic platforms. The availability of high-quality, low-cost ETFs covering each required asset class has eliminated many of the barriers that previously limited sophisticated portfolio construction to institutional investors.
The development of advanced portfolio management software and platforms like TradingView has further democratized access to institutional-quality analytics and implementation tools. The All Weather Strategy Indicator represents the culmination of this trend, providing individual investors with capabilities that previously required teams of portfolio managers and risk analysts.
Understanding the Four Economic Seasons
The All Weather Strategy's theoretical foundation rests on Dalio's observation that all economic environments can be characterized by two primary variables: economic growth and inflation. These variables create four distinct "economic seasons," each favoring different asset classes. Rising growth benefits stocks and commodities, while falling growth favors bonds. Rising inflation helps commodities and inflation-protected securities, while falling inflation benefits nominal bonds and stocks.
This framework, detailed extensively in Bridgewater's research papers from the 1990s, suggests that by holding assets that perform well in each economic season, an investor can create a portfolio that remains resilient regardless of which season unfolds. The elegance lies not in predicting which season will occur, but in being prepared for all of them simultaneously.
Academic research supports this multi-environment approach. Ang and Bekaert (2002) demonstrated that regime changes in economic conditions significantly impact asset returns, while Fama and French (2004) showed that different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to economic factors. The All Weather Strategy essentially operationalizes these academic insights into a practical investment framework.
The Original All Weather Allocation: Simplicity Masquerading as Sophistication
The core All Weather portfolio, as implemented by Bridgewater for institutional clients and later adapted for retail investors, maintains a deceptively simple static allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate-term bonds, 7.5% commodities, and 7.5% Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). This allocation may appear arbitrary to the uninitiated, but each percentage reflects careful consideration of historical volatilities, correlations, and economic sensitivities.
The 30% stock allocation provides growth exposure while limiting the portfolio's overall volatility. Stocks historically deliver superior long-term returns but with significant volatility, as evidenced by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index's average annual return of approximately 10% since 1926, accompanied by standard deviation exceeding 15% (Ibbotson Associates, 2023). By limiting stock exposure to 30%, the portfolio captures much of the equity risk premium while avoiding excessive volatility.
The combined 55% allocation to bonds (40% long-term plus 15% intermediate-term) serves as the portfolio's stabilizing force. Long-term bonds provide substantial interest rate sensitivity, performing well during economic slowdowns when central banks reduce rates. Intermediate-term bonds offer a balance between interest rate sensitivity and reduced duration risk. This bond-heavy allocation reflects Dalio's insight that bonds typically exhibit lower volatility than stocks while providing essential diversification benefits.
The 7.5% commodities allocation addresses inflation protection, as commodity prices typically rise during inflationary periods. Historical analysis by Bodie and Rosansky (1980) demonstrated that commodities provide meaningful diversification benefits and inflation hedging capabilities, though with considerable volatility. The relatively small allocation reflects commodities' high volatility and mixed long-term returns.
Finally, the 7.5% TIPS allocation provides explicit inflation protection through government-backed securities whose principal and interest payments adjust with inflation. Introduced by the U.S. Treasury in 1997, TIPS have proven effective inflation hedges, though they underperform nominal bonds during deflationary periods (Campbell & Viceira, 2001).
Historical Performance: The Evidence Speaks
Analyzing the All Weather Strategy's historical performance reveals both its strengths and limitations. Using monthly return data from 1970 to 2023, spanning over five decades of varying economic conditions, the strategy has delivered compelling risk-adjusted returns while experiencing lower volatility than traditional stock-heavy portfolios.
During this period, the All Weather allocation generated an average annual return of approximately 8.2%, compared to 10.5% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the strategy's annual volatility measured just 9.1%, substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.8% volatility. This translated to a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 for the All Weather Strategy versus 0.54 for the S&P 500, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance.
More impressively, the strategy's maximum drawdown over this period was 12.3%, occurring during the 2008 financial crisis, compared to the S&P 500's maximum drawdown of 50.9% during the same period. This drawdown mitigation proves crucial for long-term wealth building, as Stein and DeMuth (2003) demonstrated that avoiding large losses significantly impacts compound returns over time.
The strategy performed particularly well during periods of economic stress. During the 1970s stagflation, when stocks and bonds both struggled, the All Weather portfolio's commodity and TIPS allocations provided essential protection. Similarly, during the 2000-2002 dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis, the portfolio's bond-heavy allocation cushioned losses while maintaining positive returns in several years when stocks declined significantly.
However, the strategy underperformed during sustained bull markets, particularly the 1990s technology boom and the 2010s post-financial crisis recovery. This underperformance reflects the strategy's conservative nature and diversified approach, which sacrifices potential upside for downside protection. As Dalio frequently emphasizes, the All Weather Strategy prioritizes "not losing money" over "making a lot of money."
Implementing the All Weather Strategy: A Practical Guide
The All Weather Strategy Indicator transforms Dalio's institutional-grade approach into an accessible tool for individual investors. The indicator provides real-time portfolio tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analytics, eliminating much of the complexity traditionally associated with implementing sophisticated allocation strategies.
To begin implementation, investors must first determine their investable capital. As detailed analysis reveals, the All Weather Strategy requires meaningful capital to implement effectively due to transaction costs, minimum investment requirements, and the need for precise allocations across five different asset classes.
For portfolios below $50,000, the strategy becomes challenging to implement efficiently. Transaction costs consume a disproportionate share of returns, while the inability to purchase fractional shares creates allocation drift. Consider an investor with $25,000 attempting to allocate 7.5% to commodities through the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF (DJP), currently trading around $25 per share. This allocation targets $1,875, enough for only 75 shares, creating immediate tracking error.
At $50,000, implementation becomes feasible but not optimal. The 30% stock allocation ($15,000) purchases approximately 37 shares of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at current prices around $400 per share. The 40% long-term bond allocation ($20,000) buys 200 shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) at approximately $100 per share. While workable, these allocations leave significant cash drag and rebalancing challenges.
The optimal minimum for individual implementation appears to be $100,000. At this level, each allocation becomes substantial enough for precise implementation while keeping transaction costs below 0.4% annually. The $30,000 stock allocation, $40,000 long-term bond allocation, $15,000 intermediate-term bond allocation, $7,500 commodity allocation, and $7,500 TIPS allocation each provide sufficient size for effective management.
For investors with $250,000 or more, the strategy implementation approaches institutional quality. Allocation precision improves, transaction costs decline as a percentage of assets, and rebalancing becomes highly efficient. These larger portfolios can also consider adding complexity through international diversification or alternative implementations.
The indicator recommends quarterly rebalancing to balance transaction costs with allocation discipline. Monthly rebalancing increases costs without substantial benefits for most investors, while annual rebalancing allows excessive drift that can meaningfully impact performance. Quarterly rebalancing, typically on the first trading day of each quarter, provides an optimal balance.
Understanding the Indicator's Functionality
The All Weather Strategy Indicator operates as a comprehensive portfolio management system, providing multiple analytical layers that professional money managers typically reserve for institutional clients. This sophisticated tool transforms Ray Dalio's institutional-grade strategy into an accessible platform for individual investors, offering features that rival professional portfolio management software.
The indicator's core architecture consists of several interconnected modules that work seamlessly together to provide complete portfolio oversight. At its foundation lies a real-time portfolio simulation engine that tracks the exact value of each ETF position based on current market prices, eliminating the need for manual calculations or external spreadsheets.
DETAILED INDICATOR COMPONENTS AND FUNCTIONS
Portfolio Configuration Module
The portfolio setup begins with the Portfolio Configuration section, which establishes the fundamental parameters for strategy implementation. The Portfolio Capital input accepts values from $1,000 to $10,000,000, accommodating everyone from beginning investors to institutional clients. This input directly drives all subsequent calculations, determining exact share quantities and portfolio values throughout the implementation period.
The Portfolio Start Date function allows users to specify when they began implementing the All Weather Strategy, creating a clear demarcation point for performance tracking. This feature proves essential for investors who want to track their actual implementation against theoretical performance, providing realistic assessment of strategy effectiveness including timing differences and implementation costs.
Rebalancing Frequency settings offer two options: Monthly and Quarterly. While monthly rebalancing provides more precise allocation control, quarterly rebalancing typically proves more cost-effective for most investors due to reduced transaction costs. The indicator automatically detects the first trading day of each period, ensuring rebalancing occurs at optimal times regardless of weekends, holidays, or market closures.
The Rebalancing Threshold parameter, adjustable from 0.5% to 10%, determines when allocation drift triggers rebalancing recommendations. Conservative settings like 1-2% maintain tight allocation control but increase trading frequency, while wider thresholds like 3-5% reduce trading costs but allow greater allocation drift. This flexibility accommodates different risk tolerances and cost structures.
Visual Display System
The Show All Weather Calculator toggle controls the main dashboard visibility, allowing users to focus on chart visualization when detailed metrics aren't needed. When enabled, this comprehensive dashboard displays current portfolio value, individual ETF allocations, target versus actual weights, rebalancing status, and performance metrics in a professionally formatted table.
Economic Environment Display provides context about current market conditions based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated regime detection, this feature helps users understand which economic "season" currently prevails and which asset classes should theoretically benefit.
Rebalancing Signals illuminate when portfolio drift exceeds user-defined thresholds, highlighting specific ETFs that require adjustment. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency: green for balanced allocations, yellow for moderate drift, and red for significant deviations requiring immediate attention.
Advanced Label System
The rebalancing label system represents one of the indicator's most innovative features, providing three distinct detail levels to accommodate different user needs and experience levels. The "None" setting displays simple symbols marking portfolio start and rebalancing events without cluttering the chart with text. This minimal approach suits experienced investors who understand the implications of each symbol.
"Basic" label mode shows essential information including portfolio values at each rebalancing point, enabling quick assessment of strategy performance over time. These labels display "START $X" for portfolio initiation and "RBL $Y" for rebalancing events, providing clear performance tracking without overwhelming detail.
"Detailed" labels provide comprehensive trading instructions including exact buy and sell quantities for each ETF. These labels might display "RBL $125,000 BUY 15 SPY SELL 25 TLT BUY 8 IEF NO TRADES DJP SELL 12 SCHP" providing complete implementation guidance. This feature essentially transforms the indicator into a personal portfolio manager, eliminating guesswork about exact trades required.
Professional Color Themes
Eight professionally designed color themes adapt the indicator's appearance to different aesthetic preferences and market analysis styles. The "Gold" theme reflects traditional wealth management aesthetics, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional appearance. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making, while "Quant" employs high-contrast combinations favored by quantitative analysts.
"Ocean," "Fire," "Matrix," and "Arctic" themes provide distinctive visual identities for traders who prefer unique chart aesthetics. Each theme automatically adjusts for dark or light mode optimization, ensuring optimal readability across different TradingView configurations.
Real-Time Portfolio Tracking
The portfolio simulation engine continuously tracks five separate ETF positions: SPY for stocks, TLT for long-term bonds, IEF for intermediate-term bonds, DJP for commodities, and SCHP for TIPS. Each position's value updates in real-time based on current market prices, providing instant feedback about portfolio performance and allocation drift.
Current share calculations determine exact holdings based on the most recent rebalancing, while target shares reflect optimal allocation based on current portfolio value. Trade calculations show precisely how many shares to buy or sell during rebalancing, eliminating manual calculations and potential errors.
Performance Analytics Suite
The indicator's performance measurement capabilities rival professional portfolio analysis software. Sharpe ratio calculations incorporate current risk-free rates obtained from Treasury yield data, providing accurate risk-adjusted performance assessment. Volatility measurements use rolling periods to capture changing market conditions while maintaining statistical significance.
Portfolio return calculations track both absolute and relative performance, comparing the All Weather implementation against individual asset classes and benchmark indices. These metrics update continuously, providing real-time assessment of strategy effectiveness and implementation quality.
Data Quality Monitoring
Sophisticated data quality checks ensure reliable indicator operation across different market conditions and potential data interruptions. The system monitors all five ETF price feeds plus economic data sources, providing quality scores that alert users to potential data issues that might affect calculations.
When data quality degrades, the indicator automatically switches to fallback values or alternative data sources, maintaining functionality during temporary market data interruptions. This robust design ensures consistent operation even during volatile market conditions when data feeds occasionally experience disruptions.
Risk Management and Behavioral Considerations
Despite its sophisticated design, the All Weather Strategy faces behavioral challenges that have derailed countless well-intentioned investment plans. The strategy's conservative nature means it will underperform growth stocks during bull markets, potentially by substantial margins. Maintaining discipline during these periods requires understanding that the strategy optimizes for risk-adjusted returns over absolute returns.
Behavioral finance research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that investors feel losses approximately twice as intensely as equivalent gains. This loss aversion creates powerful psychological pressure to abandon defensive strategies during bull markets when aggressive portfolios appear more attractive. The All Weather Strategy's bond-heavy allocation will seem overly conservative when technology stocks double in value, as occurred repeatedly during the 2010s.
Conversely, the strategy's defensive characteristics provide psychological comfort during market stress. When stocks crash 30-50%, as they periodically do, the All Weather portfolio's modest losses feel manageable rather than catastrophic. This emotional stability enables investors to maintain their investment discipline when others capitulate, often at the worst possible times.
Rebalancing discipline presents another behavioral challenge. Selling winners to buy losers contradicts natural human tendencies but remains essential for the strategy's success. When stocks have outperformed bonds for several quarters, rebalancing requires selling high-performing stock positions to purchase seemingly stagnant bond positions. This action feels counterintuitive but captures the strategy's systematic approach to risk management.
Tax considerations add complexity for taxable accounts. Frequent rebalancing generates taxable events that can erode after-tax returns, particularly for high-income investors facing elevated capital gains rates. Tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs provide ideal vehicles for All Weather implementation, eliminating tax friction from rebalancing activities.
Capital Requirements and Cost Analysis
Comprehensive cost analysis reveals the capital requirements for effective All Weather implementation. Annual expenses include management fees for each ETF, transaction costs from rebalancing, and bid-ask spreads from trading less liquid securities.
ETF expense ratios vary significantly across asset classes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF charges 0.09% annually, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.20%. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF charges 0.15%, the Schwab US TIPS ETF charges 0.05%, and the iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index ETF charges 0.75%. Weighted by the All Weather allocations, total expense ratios average approximately 0.19% annually.
Transaction costs depend heavily on broker selection and account size. Premium brokers like Interactive Brokers charge $1-2 per trade, resulting in $20-40 annually for quarterly rebalancing. Discount brokers may charge higher per-trade fees but offer commission-free ETF trading for selected funds. Zero-commission brokers eliminate explicit trading costs but often impose wider bid-ask spreads that function as hidden fees.
Bid-ask spreads represent the difference between buying and selling prices for each security. Highly liquid ETFs like SPY maintain spreads of 1-2 basis points, while less liquid commodity ETFs may exhibit spreads of 5-10 basis points. These costs accumulate through rebalancing activities, typically totaling 10-15 basis points annually.
For a $100,000 portfolio, total annual costs including expense ratios, transaction fees, and spreads typically range from 0.35% to 0.45%, or $350-450 annually. These costs decline as a percentage of assets as portfolio size increases, reaching approximately 0.25% for portfolios exceeding $250,000.
Comparing costs to potential benefits reveals the strategy's value proposition. Historical analysis suggests the All Weather approach reduces portfolio volatility by 35-40% compared to stock-heavy allocations while maintaining competitive returns. This volatility reduction provides substantial value during market stress, potentially preventing behavioral mistakes that destroy long-term wealth.
Alternative Implementations and Customizations
While the original All Weather allocation provides an excellent starting point, investors may consider modifications based on personal circumstances, market conditions, or geographic considerations. International diversification represents one potential enhancement, adding exposure to developed and emerging market bonds and equities.
Geographic customization becomes important for non-US investors. European investors might replace US Treasury bonds with German Bunds or broader European government bond indices. Currency hedging decisions add complexity but may reduce volatility for investors whose spending occurs in non-dollar currencies.
Tax-location strategies optimize after-tax returns by placing tax-inefficient assets in tax-advantaged accounts while holding tax-efficient assets in taxable accounts. TIPS and commodity ETFs generate ordinary income taxed at higher rates, making them candidates for retirement account placement. Stock ETFs generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains taxed at lower rates, making them suitable for taxable accounts.
Some investors prefer implementing the bond allocation through individual Treasury securities rather than ETFs, eliminating management fees while gaining precise maturity control. Treasury auctions provide access to new securities without bid-ask spreads, though this approach requires more sophisticated portfolio management.
Factor-based implementations replace broad market ETFs with factor-tilted alternatives. Value-tilted stock ETFs, quality-focused bond ETFs, or momentum-based commodity indices may enhance returns while maintaining the All Weather framework's diversification benefits. However, these modifications introduce additional complexity and potential tracking error.
Conclusion: Embracing the Long Game
The All Weather Strategy represents more than an investment approach; it embodies a philosophy of financial resilience that prioritizes sustainable wealth building over speculative gains. In an investment landscape increasingly dominated by algorithmic trading, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency volatility, Dalio's methodical approach offers a refreshing alternative grounded in economic theory and historical evidence.
The strategy's greatest strength lies not in its potential for extraordinary returns, but in its capacity to deliver reasonable returns across diverse economic environments while protecting capital during market stress. This characteristic becomes increasingly valuable as investors approach or enter retirement, when portfolio preservation assumes greater importance than aggressive growth.
Implementation requires discipline, adequate capital, and realistic expectations. The strategy will underperform growth-oriented approaches during bull markets while providing superior downside protection during bear markets. Investors must embrace this trade-off consciously, understanding that the strategy optimizes for long-term wealth building rather than short-term performance.
The All Weather Strategy Indicator democratizes access to institutional-quality portfolio management, providing individual investors with tools previously available only to wealthy families and institutions. By automating allocation tracking, rebalancing signals, and performance analysis, the indicator removes much of the complexity that has historically limited sophisticated strategy implementation.
For investors seeking a systematic, evidence-based approach to long-term wealth building, the All Weather Strategy provides a compelling framework. Its emphasis on diversification, risk management, and behavioral discipline aligns with the fundamental principles that have created lasting wealth throughout financial history. While the strategy may not generate headlines or inspire cocktail party conversations, it offers something more valuable: a reliable path toward financial security across all economic seasons.
As Dalio himself notes, "The biggest mistake investors make is to believe that what happened in the recent past is likely to persist, and they design their portfolios accordingly." The All Weather Strategy's enduring appeal lies in its rejection of this recency bias, instead embracing the uncertainty of markets while positioning for success regardless of which economic season unfolds.
STEP-BY-STEP INDICATOR SETUP GUIDE
Setting up the All Weather Strategy Indicator requires careful attention to each configuration parameter to ensure optimal implementation. This comprehensive setup guide walks through every setting and explains its impact on strategy performance.
Initial Setup Process
Begin by adding the indicator to your TradingView chart. Search for "Ray Dalio's All Weather Strategy" in the indicator library and apply it to any chart. The indicator operates independently of the underlying chart symbol, drawing data directly from the five required ETFs regardless of which security appears on the chart.
Portfolio Configuration Settings
Start with the Portfolio Capital input, which drives all subsequent calculations. Enter your exact investable capital, ranging from $1,000 to $10,000,000. This input determines share quantities, trade recommendations, and performance calculations. Conservative recommendations suggest minimum capitals of $50,000 for basic implementation or $100,000 for optimal precision.
Select your Portfolio Start Date carefully, as this establishes the baseline for all performance calculations. Choose the date when you actually began implementing the All Weather Strategy, not when you first learned about it. This date should reflect when you first purchased ETFs according to the target allocation, creating realistic performance tracking.
Choose your Rebalancing Frequency based on your cost structure and precision preferences. Monthly rebalancing provides tighter allocation control but increases transaction costs. Quarterly rebalancing offers the optimal balance for most investors between allocation precision and cost control. The indicator automatically detects appropriate trading days regardless of your selection.
Set the Rebalancing Threshold based on your tolerance for allocation drift and transaction costs. Conservative investors preferring tight control should use 1-2% thresholds, while cost-conscious investors may prefer 3-5% thresholds. Lower thresholds maintain more precise allocations but trigger more frequent trading.
Display Configuration Options
Enable Show All Weather Calculator to display the comprehensive dashboard containing portfolio values, allocations, and performance metrics. This dashboard provides essential information for portfolio management and should remain enabled for most users.
Show Economic Environment displays current economic regime classification based on growth and inflation indicators. While simplified compared to Bridgewater's sophisticated models, this feature provides useful context for understanding current market conditions.
Show Rebalancing Signals highlights when portfolio allocations drift beyond your threshold settings. These signals use color coding to indicate urgency levels, helping prioritize rebalancing activities.
Advanced Label Customization
Configure Show Rebalancing Labels based on your need for chart annotations. These labels mark important portfolio events and can provide valuable historical context, though they may clutter charts during extended time periods.
Select appropriate Label Detail Levels based on your experience and information needs. "None" provides minimal symbols suitable for experienced users. "Basic" shows portfolio values at key events. "Detailed" provides complete trading instructions including exact share quantities for each ETF.
Appearance Customization
Choose Color Themes based on your aesthetic preferences and trading style. "Gold" reflects traditional wealth management appearance, while "EdgeTools" provides modern professional styling. "Behavioral" uses psychologically informed colors that reinforce disciplined decision-making.
Enable Dark Mode Optimization if using TradingView's dark theme for optimal readability and contrast. This setting automatically adjusts all colors and transparency levels for the selected theme.
Set Main Line Width based on your chart resolution and visual preferences. Higher width values provide clearer allocation lines but may overwhelm smaller charts. Most users prefer width settings of 2-3 for optimal visibility.
Troubleshooting Common Setup Issues
If the indicator displays "Data not available" messages, verify that all five ETFs (SPY, TLT, IEF, DJP, SCHP) have valid price data on your selected timeframe. The indicator requires daily data availability for all components.
When rebalancing signals seem inconsistent, check your threshold settings and ensure sufficient time has passed since the last rebalancing event. The indicator only triggers signals on designated rebalancing days (first trading day of each period) when drift exceeds threshold levels.
If labels appear at unexpected chart locations, verify that your chart displays percentage values rather than price values. The indicator forces percentage formatting and 0-40% scaling for optimal allocation visualization.
COMPREHENSIVE BIBLIOGRAPHY AND FURTHER READING
PRIMARY SOURCES AND RAY DALIO WORKS
Dalio, R. (2017). Principles: Life and work. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Dalio, R. (2018). A template for understanding big debt crises. Bridgewater Associates.
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for dealing with the changing world order: Why nations succeed and fail. New York: Simon & Schuster.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES RESEARCH PAPERS
Jensen, G., Kertesz, A. & Prince, B. (2010). All Weather strategy: Bridgewater's approach to portfolio construction. Bridgewater Associates Research.
Prince, B. (2011). An in-depth look at the investment logic behind the All Weather strategy. Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations.
Bridgewater Associates. (2015). Risk parity in the context of larger portfolio construction. Institutional Research.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH ON RISK PARITY AND PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION
Ang, A. & Bekaert, G. (2002). International asset allocation with regime shifts. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Bodie, Z. & Rosansky, V. I. (1980). Risk and return in commodity futures. Financial Analysts Journal, 36(3), 27-39.
Campbell, J. Y. & Viceira, L. M. (2001). Who should buy long-term bonds? American Economic Review, 91(1), 99-127.
Clarke, R., De Silva, H. & Thorley, S. (2013). Risk parity, maximum diversification, and minimum variance: An analytic perspective. Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(3), 39-53.
Fama, E. F. & French, K. R. (2004). The capital asset pricing model: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(3), 25-46.
BEHAVIORAL FINANCE AND IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES
Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292.
Thaler, R. H. & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Montier, J. (2007). Behavioural investing: A practitioner's guide to applying behavioural finance. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Black, F. & Litterman, R. (1992). Global portfolio optimization. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(5), 28-43.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION AND ETF ANALYSIS
Gastineau, G. L. (2010). The exchange-traded funds manual. 2nd ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Poterba, J. M. & Shoven, J. B. (2002). Exchange-traded funds: A new investment option for taxable investors. American Economic Review, 92(2), 422-427.
Israelsen, C. L. (2005). A refinement to the Sharpe ratio and information ratio. Journal of Asset Management, 5(6), 423-427.
ECONOMIC CYCLE ANALYSIS AND ASSET CLASS RESEARCH
Ilmanen, A. (2011). Expected returns: An investor's guide to harvesting market rewards. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering portfolio management: An unconventional approach to institutional investment. Rev. ed. New York: Free Press.
Siegel, J. J. (2014). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns & long-term investment strategies. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
RISK MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.
Lowenstein, R. (2000). When genius failed: The rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management. New York: Random House.
Stein, D. M. & DeMuth, P. (2003). Systematic withdrawal from retirement portfolios: The impact of asset allocation decisions on portfolio longevity. AAII Journal, 25(7), 8-12.
CONTEMPORARY DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Asness, C. S., Frazzini, A. & Pedersen, L. H. (2012). Leverage aversion and risk parity. Financial Analysts Journal, 68(1), 47-59.
Roncalli, T. (2013). Introduction to risk parity and budgeting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Ibbotson Associates. (2023). Stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation 2023 yearbook. Chicago: Morningstar.
PERIODICALS AND ONGOING RESEARCH
Journal of Portfolio Management - Quarterly publication featuring cutting-edge research on portfolio construction and risk management
Financial Analysts Journal - Bi-monthly publication of the CFA Institute with practical investment research
Bridgewater Associates Daily Observations - Regular market commentary and research from the creators of the All Weather Strategy
RECOMMENDED READING SEQUENCE
For investors new to the All Weather Strategy, begin with Dalio's "Principles" for philosophical foundation, then proceed to the Bridgewater research papers for technical details. Supplement with Markowitz's original portfolio theory work and behavioral finance literature from Kahneman and Tversky.
Intermediate students should focus on academic papers by Ang & Bekaert on regime shifts, Clarke et al. on risk parity methods, and Ilmanen's comprehensive analysis of expected returns across asset classes.
Advanced practitioners will benefit from Roncalli's technical treatment of risk parity mathematics, Asness et al.'s academic critique of leverage aversion, and ongoing research in the Journal of Portfolio Management.
Eclipse Dates IndicatorThis TradingView indicator displays vertical lines on eclipse dates from 1980 to 2030, with comprehensive filtering options for different types of eclipses.
Features
Date Range: Covers 221 eclipse events from 1980 to 2030
Eclipse Types: Filter by Solar and/or Lunar eclipses
Eclipse Subtypes: Filter by Total, Partial, Annular, Penumbral, and Hybrid eclipses
Year Range Selection: Focus on specific decades (1980-1990, 1990-2000, etc.)
Visual Customization: Separate styling for Solar and Lunar eclipses
Line Appearance: Customize color, style, and width
Label Options: Show/hide labels with customizable appearance
Eclipse Types
Show Solar Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Solar eclipses
Show Lunar Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Lunar eclipses
Eclipse Subtypes
Show Total Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Total eclipses
Show Partial Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Partial eclipses
Show Annular Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Annular eclipses
Show Penumbral Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Penumbral eclipses
Show Hybrid Eclipses: Toggle visibility of Hybrid eclipses
Visual Settings
Solar/Lunar Eclipse Line Color: Set the color for eclipse lines
Solar/Lunar Eclipse Line Style: Choose between solid, dashed, or dotted lines
Solar/Lunar Eclipse Line Width: Set the width of eclipse lines
Solar/Lunar Label Text Color: Set the color for label text
Solar/Lunar Label Background Color: Set the background color for labels
General Settings
Show Eclipse Labels: Toggle visibility of eclipse labels
Label Size: Choose between tiny, small, normal, or large labels
Extend Lines to Chart Borders: Toggle whether lines extend to chart borders
Year Range: Filter eclipses by decade (1980-1990, 1990-2000, etc.)
Usage Tips
For optimal visualization, use daily or weekly timeframes
When analyzing specific periods, use the Year Range filter
To focus on specific eclipse types, use the type and subtype filters
For cleaner charts, you can hide labels and only show lines
Customize colors to match your chart theme
Data Source
Eclipse data is sourced from NASA's Five Millennium Catalog of Solar Eclipses and includes both solar and lunar eclipses from 1980 to 2030.
cbndLibrary "cbnd"
Description:
A standalone Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution (CBND) functions that do not require any external libraries.
This includes 3 different CBND calculations: Drezner(1978), Drezner and Wesolowsky (1990), and Genz (2004)
Comments:
The standardized cumulative normal distribution function returns the probability that one random
variable is less than a and that a second random variable is less than b when the correlation
between the two variables is p. Since no closed-form solution exists for the bivariate cumulative
normal distribution, we present three approximations. The first one is the well-known
Drezner (1978) algorithm. The second one is the more efficient Drezner and Wesolowsky (1990)
algorithm. The third is the Genz (2004) algorithm, which is the most accurate one and therefore
our recommended algorithm. West (2005b) and Agca and Chance (2003) discuss the speed and
accuracy of bivariate normal distribution approximations for use in option pricing in
ore detail.
Reference:
The Complete Guide to Option Pricing Formulas, 2nd ed. (Espen Gaarder Haug)
CBND1(A, b, rho)
Returns the Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution (CBND) using Drezner 1978 Algorithm
Parameters:
A : float,
b : float,
rho : float,
Returns: float.
CBND2(A, b, rho)
Returns the Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution (CBND) using Drezner and Wesolowsky (1990) function
Parameters:
A : float,
b : float,
rho : float,
Returns: float.
CBND3(x, y, rho)
Returns the Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution (CBND) using Genz (2004) algorithm (this is the preferred method)
Parameters:
x : float,
y : float,
rho : float,
Returns: float.
Bear Market Probability Model# Bear Market Probability Model: A Multi-Factor Risk Assessment Framework
The Bear Market Probability Model represents a comprehensive quantitative framework for assessing systemic market risk through the integration of 13 distinct risk factors across four analytical categories: macroeconomic indicators, technical analysis factors, market sentiment measures, and market breadth metrics. This indicator synthesizes established financial research methodologies to provide real-time probabilistic assessments of impending bear market conditions, offering institutional-grade risk management capabilities to retail and professional traders alike.
## Theoretical Foundation
### Historical Context of Bear Market Prediction
Bear market prediction has been a central focus of financial research since the seminal work of Dow (1901) and the subsequent development of technical analysis theory. The challenge of predicting market downturns gained renewed academic attention following the market crashes of 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, leading to the development of sophisticated multi-factor models.
Fama and French (1989) demonstrated that certain financial variables possess predictive power for stock returns, particularly during market stress periods. Their three-factor model laid the groundwork for multi-dimensional risk assessment, which this indicator extends through the incorporation of real-time market microstructure data.
### Methodological Framework
The model employs a weighted composite scoring methodology based on the theoretical framework established by Campbell and Shiller (1998) for market valuation assessment, extended through the incorporation of high-frequency sentiment and technical indicators as proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) in their seminal work on investor sentiment.
The mathematical foundation follows the general form:
Bear Market Probability = Σ(Wi × Ci) / ΣWi × 100
Where:
- Wi = Category weight (i = 1,2,3,4)
- Ci = Normalized category score
- Categories: Macroeconomic, Technical, Sentiment, Breadth
## Component Analysis
### 1. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
#### Yield Curve Analysis
The inclusion of yield curve inversion as a primary predictor follows extensive research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who demonstrated that the term spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasury securities has historically preceded all major recessions since 1969. The model incorporates both the 2Y-10Y and 3M-10Y spreads to capture different aspects of monetary policy expectations.
Implementation:
- 2Y-10Y Spread: Captures market expectations of monetary policy trajectory
- 3M-10Y Spread: Traditional recession predictor with 12-18 month lead time
Scientific Basis: Harvey (1988) and subsequent research by Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2006) established the theoretical foundation linking yield curve inversions to economic contractions through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure.
#### Credit Risk Premium Assessment
High-yield credit spreads serve as a real-time gauge of systemic risk, following the methodology established by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) in their excess bond premium research. The model incorporates the ICE BofA High Yield Master II Option-Adjusted Spread as a proxy for credit market stress.
Threshold Calibration:
- Normal conditions: < 350 basis points
- Elevated risk: 350-500 basis points
- Severe stress: > 500 basis points
#### Currency and Commodity Stress Indicators
The US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum serves as a risk-off indicator, while the Gold-to-Oil ratio captures commodity market stress dynamics. This approach follows the methodology of Akram (2009) and Beckmann, Berger, and Czudaj (2015) in analyzing commodity-currency relationships during market stress.
### 2. Technical Analysis Factors
#### Multi-Timeframe Moving Average Analysis
The technical component incorporates the well-established moving average convergence methodology, drawing from the work of Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), who provided empirical evidence for the profitability of technical trading rules.
Implementation:
- Price relative to 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages
- Moving average convergence/divergence analysis
- Multi-timeframe MACD assessment (daily and weekly)
#### Momentum and Volatility Analysis
The model integrates Relative Strength Index (RSI) analysis following Wilder's (1978) original methodology, combined with maximum drawdown analysis based on the work of Magdon-Ismail and Atiya (2004) on optimal drawdown measurement.
### 3. Market Sentiment Factors
#### Volatility Index Analysis
The VIX component follows the established research of Whaley (2009) and subsequent work by Bekaert and Hoerova (2014) on VIX as a predictor of market stress. The model incorporates both absolute VIX levels and relative VIX spikes compared to the 20-day moving average.
Calibration:
- Low volatility: VIX < 20
- Elevated concern: VIX 20-25
- High fear: VIX > 25
- Panic conditions: VIX > 30
#### Put-Call Ratio Analysis
Options flow analysis through put-call ratios provides insight into sophisticated investor positioning, following the methodology established by Pan and Poteshman (2006) in their analysis of informed trading in options markets.
### 4. Market Breadth Factors
#### Advance-Decline Analysis
Market breadth assessment follows the classic work of Fosback (1976) and subsequent research by Brown and Cliff (2004) on market breadth as a predictor of future returns.
Components:
- Daily advance-decline ratio
- Advance-decline line momentum
- McClellan Oscillator (Ema19 - Ema39 of A-D difference)
#### New Highs-New Lows Analysis
The new highs-new lows ratio serves as a market leadership indicator, based on the research of Zweig (1986) and validated in academic literature by Zarowin (1990).
## Dynamic Threshold Methodology
The model incorporates adaptive thresholds based on rolling volatility and trend analysis, following the methodology established by Pagan and Sossounov (2003) for business cycle dating. This approach allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing market conditions.
Dynamic Threshold Calculation:
- Warning Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.0)
- Danger Level: Base threshold ± (Volatility × 1.5)
- Bounds: ±10-20 points from base threshold
## Professional Implementation
### Institutional Usage Patterns
Professional risk managers typically employ multi-factor bear market models in several contexts:
#### 1. Portfolio Risk Management
- Tactical Asset Allocation: Reducing equity exposure when probability exceeds 60-70%
- Hedging Strategies: Implementing protective puts or VIX calls when warning thresholds are breached
- Sector Rotation: Shifting from growth to defensive sectors during elevated risk periods
#### 2. Risk Budgeting
- Value-at-Risk Adjustment: Incorporating bear market probability into VaR calculations
- Stress Testing: Using probability levels to calibrate stress test scenarios
- Capital Requirements: Adjusting regulatory capital based on systemic risk assessment
#### 3. Client Communication
- Risk Reporting: Quantifying market risk for client presentations
- Investment Committee Decisions: Providing objective risk metrics for strategic decisions
- Performance Attribution: Explaining defensive positioning during market stress
### Implementation Framework
Professional traders typically implement such models through:
#### Signal Hierarchy:
1. Probability < 30%: Normal risk positioning
2. Probability 30-50%: Increased hedging, reduced leverage
3. Probability 50-70%: Defensive positioning, cash building
4. Probability > 70%: Maximum defensive posture, short exposure consideration
#### Risk Management Integration:
- Position Sizing: Inverse relationship between probability and position size
- Stop-Loss Adjustment: Tighter stops during elevated risk periods
- Correlation Monitoring: Increased attention to cross-asset correlations
## Strengths and Advantages
### 1. Comprehensive Coverage
The model's primary strength lies in its multi-dimensional approach, avoiding the single-factor bias that has historically plagued market timing models. By incorporating macroeconomic, technical, sentiment, and breadth factors, the model provides robust risk assessment across different market regimes.
### 2. Dynamic Adaptability
The adaptive threshold mechanism allows the model to adjust sensitivity based on prevailing volatility conditions, reducing false signals during low-volatility periods and maintaining sensitivity during high-volatility regimes.
### 3. Real-Time Processing
Unlike traditional academic models that rely on monthly or quarterly data, this indicator processes daily market data, providing timely risk assessment for active portfolio management.
### 4. Transparency and Interpretability
The component-based structure allows users to understand which factors are driving risk assessment, enabling informed decision-making about model signals.
### 5. Historical Validation
Each component has been validated in academic literature, providing theoretical foundation for the model's predictive power.
## Limitations and Weaknesses
### 1. Data Dependencies
The model's effectiveness depends heavily on the availability and quality of real-time economic data. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) updates may have lags that could impact model responsiveness during rapidly evolving market conditions.
### 2. Regime Change Sensitivity
Like most quantitative models, the indicator may struggle during unprecedented market conditions or structural regime changes where historical relationships break down (Taleb, 2007).
### 3. False Signal Risk
Multi-factor models inherently face the challenge of balancing sensitivity with specificity. The model may generate false positive signals during normal market volatility periods.
### 4. Currency and Geographic Bias
The model focuses primarily on US market indicators, potentially limiting its effectiveness for global portfolio management or non-USD denominated assets.
### 5. Correlation Breakdown
During extreme market stress, correlations between risk factors may increase dramatically, reducing the model's diversification benefits (Forbes and Rigobon, 2002).
## References
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Ang, A., Piazzesi, M., & Wei, M. (2006). What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth? Journal of Econometrics, 131(1-2), 359-403.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Beckmann, J., Berger, T., & Czudaj, R. (2015). Does gold act as a hedge or a safe haven for stocks? A smooth transition approach. Economic Modelling, 48, 16-24.
Bekaert, G., & Hoerova, M. (2014). The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 183(2), 181-192.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731-1764.
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2004). Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market. Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.
Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1998). Valuation ratios and the long-run stock market outlook. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(2), 11-26.
Dow, C. H. (1901). Scientific stock speculation. The Magazine of Wall Street.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1989). Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 25(1), 23-49.
Forbes, K. J., & Rigobon, R. (2002). No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2223-2261.
Fosback, N. G. (1976). Stock market logic: A sophisticated approach to profits on Wall Street. The Institute for Econometric Research.
Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. American Economic Review, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Harvey, C. R. (1988). The real term structure and consumption growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(2), 305-333.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Magdon-Ismail, M., & Atiya, A. F. (2004). Maximum drawdown. Risk, 17(10), 99-102.
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220.
Pagan, A. R., & Sossounov, K. A. (2003). A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 23-46.
Pan, J., & Poteshman, A. M. (2006). The information in option volume for future stock prices. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(3), 871-908.
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.
Whaley, R. E. (2009). Understanding the VIX. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 35(3), 98-105.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New concepts in technical trading systems. Trend Research.
Zarowin, P. (1990). Size, seasonality, and stock market overreaction. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 25(1), 113-125.
Zweig, M. E. (1986). Winning on Wall Street. Warner Books.
Color█ OVERVIEW
This library is a Pine Script® programming tool for advanced color processing. It provides a comprehensive set of functions for specifying and analyzing colors in various color spaces, mixing and manipulating colors, calculating custom gradients and schemes, detecting contrast, and converting colors to or from hexadecimal strings.
█ CONCEPTS
Color
Color refers to how we interpret light of different wavelengths in the visible spectrum . The colors we see from an object represent the light wavelengths that it reflects, emits, or transmits toward our eyes. Some colors, such as blue and red, correspond directly to parts of the spectrum. Others, such as magenta, arise from a combination of wavelengths to which our minds assign a single color.
The human interpretation of color lends itself to many uses in our world. In the context of financial data analysis, the effective use of color helps transform raw data into insights that users can understand at a glance. For example, colors can categorize series, signal market conditions and sessions, and emphasize patterns or relationships in data.
Color models and spaces
A color model is a general mathematical framework that describes colors using sets of numbers. A color space is an implementation of a specific color model that defines an exact range (gamut) of reproducible colors based on a set of primary colors , a reference white point , and sometimes additional parameters such as viewing conditions.
There are numerous different color spaces — each describing the characteristics of color in unique ways. Different spaces carry different advantages, depending on the application. Below, we provide a brief overview of the concepts underlying the color spaces supported by this library.
RGB
RGB is one of the most well-known color models. It represents color as an additive mixture of three primary colors — red, green, and blue lights — with various intensities. Each cone cell in the human eye responds more strongly to one of the three primaries, and the average person interprets the combination of these lights as a distinct color (e.g., pure red + pure green = yellow).
The sRGB color space is the most common RGB implementation. Developed by HP and Microsoft in the 1990s, sRGB provided a standardized baseline for representing color across CRT monitors of the era, which produced brightness levels that did not increase linearly with the input signal. To match displays and optimize brightness encoding for human sensitivity, sRGB applied a nonlinear transformation to linear RGB signals, often referred to as gamma correction . The result produced more visually pleasing outputs while maintaining a simple encoding. As such, sRGB quickly became a standard for digital color representation across devices and the web. To this day, it remains the default color space for most web-based content.
TradingView charts and Pine Script `color.*` built-ins process color data in sRGB. The red, green, and blue channels range from 0 to 255, where 0 represents no intensity, and 255 represents maximum intensity. Each combination of red, green, and blue values represents a distinct color, resulting in a total of 16,777,216 displayable colors.
CIE XYZ and xyY
The XYZ color space, developed by the International Commission on Illumination (CIE) in 1931, aims to describe all color sensations that a typical human can perceive. It is a cornerstone of color science, forming the basis for many color spaces used today. XYZ, and the derived xyY space, provide a universal representation of color that is not tethered to a particular display. Many widely used color spaces, including sRGB, are defined relative to XYZ or derived from it.
The CIE built the color space based on a series of experiments in which people matched colors they perceived from mixtures of lights. From these experiments, the CIE developed color-matching functions to calculate three components — X, Y, and Z — which together aim to describe a standard observer's response to visible light. X represents a weighted response to light across the color spectrum, with the highest contribution from long wavelengths (e.g., red). Y represents a weighted response to medium wavelengths (e.g., green), and it corresponds to a color's relative luminance (i.e., brightness). Z represents a weighted response to short wavelengths (e.g., blue).
From the XYZ space, the CIE developed the xyY chromaticity space, which separates a color's chromaticity (hue and colorfulness) from luminance. The CIE used this space to define the CIE 1931 chromaticity diagram , which represents the full range of visible colors at a given luminance. In color science and lighting design, xyY is a common means for specifying colors and visualizing the supported ranges of other color spaces.
CIELAB and Oklab
The CIELAB (L*a*b*) color space, derived from XYZ by the CIE in 1976, expresses colors based on opponent process theory. The L* component represents perceived lightness, and the a* and b* components represent the balance between opposing unique colors. The a* value specifies the balance between green and red , and the b* value specifies the balance between blue and yellow .
The primary intention of CIELAB was to provide a perceptually uniform color space, where fixed-size steps through the space correspond to uniform perceived changes in color. Although relatively uniform, the color space has been found to exhibit some non-uniformities, particularly in the blue part of the color spectrum. Regardless, modern applications often use CIELAB to estimate perceived color differences and calculate smooth color gradients.
In 2020, a new LAB-oriented color space, Oklab , was introduced by Björn Ottosson as an attempt to rectify the non-uniformities of other perceptual color spaces. Similar to CIELAB, the L value in Oklab represents perceived lightness, and the a and b values represent the balance between opposing unique colors. Oklab has gained widespread adoption as a perceptual space for color processing, with support in the latest CSS Color specifications and many software applications.
Cylindrical models
A cylindrical-coordinate model transforms an underlying color model, such as RGB or LAB, into an alternative expression of color information that is often more intuitive for the average person to use and understand.
Instead of a mixture of primary colors or opponent pairs, these models represent color as a hue angle on a color wheel , with additional parameters that describe other qualities such as lightness and colorfulness (a general term for concepts like chroma and saturation). In cylindrical-coordinate spaces, users can select a color and modify its lightness or other qualities without altering the hue.
The three most common RGB-based models are HSL (Hue, Saturation, Lightness), HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value), and HWB (Hue, Whiteness, Blackness). All three define hue angles in the same way, but they define colorfulness and lightness differently. Although they are not perceptually uniform, HSL and HSV are commonplace in color pickers and gradients.
For CIELAB and Oklab, the cylindrical-coordinate versions are CIELCh and Oklch , which express color in terms of perceived lightness, chroma, and hue. They offer perceptually uniform alternatives to RGB-based models. These spaces create unique color wheels, and they have more strict definitions of lightness and colorfulness. Oklch is particularly well-suited for generating smooth, perceptual color gradients.
Alpha and transparency
Many color encoding schemes include an alpha channel, representing opacity . Alpha does not help define a color in a color space; it determines how a color interacts with other colors in the display. Opaque colors appear with full intensity on the screen, whereas translucent (semi-opaque) colors blend into the background. Colors with zero opacity are invisible.
In Pine Script, there are two ways to specify a color's alpha:
• Using the `transp` parameter of the built-in `color.*()` functions. The specified value represents transparency (the opposite of opacity), which the functions translate into an alpha value.
• Using eight-digit hexadecimal color codes. The last two digits in the code represent alpha directly.
A process called alpha compositing simulates translucent colors in a display. It creates a single displayed color by mixing the RGB channels of two colors (foreground and background) based on alpha values, giving the illusion of a semi-opaque color placed over another color. For example, a red color with 80% transparency on a black background produces a dark shade of red.
Hexadecimal color codes
A hexadecimal color code (hex code) is a compact representation of an RGB color. It encodes a color's red, green, and blue values into a sequence of hexadecimal ( base-16 ) digits. The digits are numerals ranging from `0` to `9` or letters from `a` (for 10) to `f` (for 15). Each set of two digits represents an RGB channel ranging from `00` (for 0) to `ff` (for 255).
Pine scripts can natively define colors using hex codes in the format `#rrggbbaa`. The first set of two digits represents red, the second represents green, and the third represents blue. The fourth set represents alpha . If unspecified, the value is `ff` (fully opaque). For example, `#ff8b00` and `#ff8b00ff` represent an opaque orange color. The code `#ff8b0033` represents the same color with 80% transparency.
Gradients
A color gradient maps colors to numbers over a given range. Most color gradients represent a continuous path in a specific color space, where each number corresponds to a mix between a starting color and a stopping color. In Pine, coders often use gradients to visualize value intensities in plots and heatmaps, or to add visual depth to fills.
The behavior of a color gradient depends on the mixing method and the chosen color space. Gradients in sRGB usually mix along a straight line between the red, green, and blue coordinates of two colors. In cylindrical spaces such as HSL, a gradient often rotates the hue angle through the color wheel, resulting in more pronounced color transitions.
Color schemes
A color scheme refers to a set of colors for use in aesthetic or functional design. A color scheme usually consists of just a few distinct colors. However, depending on the purpose, a scheme can include many colors.
A user might choose palettes for a color scheme arbitrarily, or generate them algorithmically. There are many techniques for calculating color schemes. A few simple, practical methods are:
• Sampling a set of distinct colors from a color gradient.
• Generating monochromatic variants of a color (i.e., tints, tones, or shades with matching hues).
• Computing color harmonies — such as complements, analogous colors, triads, and tetrads — from a base color.
This library includes functions for all three of these techniques. See below for details.
█ CALCULATIONS AND USE
Hex string conversion
The `getHexString()` function returns a string containing the eight-digit hexadecimal code corresponding to a "color" value or set of sRGB and transparency values. For example, `getHexString(255, 0, 0)` returns the string `"#ff0000ff"`, and `getHexString(color.new(color.red, 80))` returns `"#f2364533"`.
The `hexStringToColor()` function returns the "color" value represented by a string containing a six- or eight-digit hex code. The `hexStringToRGB()` function returns a tuple containing the sRGB and transparency values. For example, `hexStringToColor("#f23645")` returns the same value as color.red .
Programmers can use these functions to parse colors from "string" inputs, perform string-based color calculations, and inspect color data in text outputs such as Pine Logs and tables.
Color space conversion
All other `get*()` functions convert a "color" value or set of sRGB channels into coordinates in a specific color space, with transparency information included. For example, the tuple returned by `getHSL()` includes the color's hue, saturation, lightness, and transparency values.
To convert data from a color space back to colors or sRGB and transparency values, use the corresponding `*toColor()` or `*toRGB()` functions for that space (e.g., `hslToColor()` and `hslToRGB()`).
Programmers can use these conversion functions to process inputs that define colors in different ways, perform advanced color manipulation, design custom gradients, and more.
The color spaces this library supports are:
• sRGB
• Linear RGB (RGB without gamma correction)
• HSL, HSV, and HWB
• CIE XYZ and xyY
• CIELAB and CIELCh
• Oklab and Oklch
Contrast-based calculations
Contrast refers to the difference in luminance or color that makes one color visible against another. This library features two functions for calculating luminance-based contrast and detecting themes.
The `contrastRatio()` function calculates the contrast between two "color" values based on their relative luminance (the Y value from CIE XYZ) using the formula from version 2 of the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG) . This function is useful for identifying colors that provide a sufficient brightness difference for legibility.
The `isLightTheme()` function determines whether a specified background color represents a light theme based on its contrast with black and white. Programmers can use this function to define conditional logic that responds differently to light and dark themes.
Color manipulation and harmonies
The `negative()` function calculates the negative (i.e., inverse) of a color by reversing the color's coordinates in either the sRGB or linear RGB color space. This function is useful for calculating high-contrast colors.
The `grayscale()` function calculates a grayscale form of a specified color with the same relative luminance.
The functions `complement()`, `splitComplements()`, `analogousColors()`, `triadicColors()`, `tetradicColors()`, `pentadicColors()`, and `hexadicColors()` calculate color harmonies from a specified source color within a given color space (HSL, CIELCh, or Oklch). The returned harmonious colors represent specific hue rotations around a color wheel formed by the chosen space, with the same defined lightness, saturation or chroma, and transparency.
Color mixing and gradient creation
The `add()` function simulates combining lights of two different colors by additively mixing their linear red, green, and blue components, ignoring transparency by default. Users can calculate a transparency-weighted mixture by setting the `transpWeight` argument to `true`.
The `overlay()` function estimates the color displayed on a TradingView chart when a specific foreground color is over a background color. This function aids in simulating stacked colors and analyzing the effects of transparency.
The `fromGradient()` and `fromMultiStepGradient()` functions calculate colors from gradients in any of the supported color spaces, providing flexible alternatives to the RGB-based color.from_gradient() function. The `fromGradient()` function calculates a color from a single gradient. The `fromMultiStepGradient()` function calculates a color from a piecewise gradient with multiple defined steps. Gradients are useful for heatmaps and for coloring plots or drawings based on value intensities.
Scheme creation
Three functions in this library calculate palettes for custom color schemes. Scripts can use these functions to create responsive color schemes that adjust to calculated values and user inputs.
The `gradientPalette()` function creates an array of colors by sampling a specified number of colors along a gradient from a base color to a target color, in fixed-size steps.
The `monoPalette()` function creates an array containing monochromatic variants (tints, tones, or shades) of a specified base color. Whether the function mixes the color toward white (for tints), a form of gray (for tones), or black (for shades) depends on the `grayLuminance` value. If unspecified, the function automatically chooses the mix behavior with the highest contrast.
The `harmonyPalette()` function creates a matrix of colors. The first column contains the base color and specified harmonies, e.g., triadic colors. The columns that follow contain tints, tones, or shades of the harmonic colors for additional color choices, similar to `monoPalette()`.
█ EXAMPLE CODE
The example code at the end of the script generates and visualizes color schemes by processing user inputs. The code builds the scheme's palette based on the "Base color" input and the additional inputs in the "Settings/Inputs" tab:
• "Palette type" specifies whether the palette uses a custom gradient, monochromatic base color variants, or color harmonies with monochromatic variants.
• "Target color" sets the top color for the "Gradient" palette type.
• The "Gray luminance" inputs determine variation behavior for "Monochromatic" and "Harmony" palette types. If "Auto" is selected, the palette mixes the base color toward white or black based on its brightness. Otherwise, it mixes the color toward the grayscale color with the specified relative luminance (from 0 to 1).
• "Harmony type" specifies the color harmony used in the palette. Each row in the palette corresponds to one of the harmonious colors, starting with the base color.
The code creates a table on the first bar to display the collection of calculated colors. Each cell in the table shows the color's `getHexString()` value in a tooltip for simple inspection.
Look first. Then leap.
█ EXPORTED FUNCTIONS
Below is a complete list of the functions and overloads exported by this library.
getRGB(source)
Retrieves the sRGB red, green, blue, and transparency components of a "color" value.
getHexString(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channel values to a string representing the corresponding color's hexadecimal form.
getHexString(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Converts a "color" value to a string representing the sRGB color's hexadecimal form.
hexStringToRGB(source)
Converts a string representing an sRGB color's hexadecimal form to a set of decimal channel values.
hexStringToColor(source)
Converts a string representing an sRGB color's hexadecimal form to a "color" value.
getLRGB(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channel values to a set of linear RGB values with specified transparency information.
getLRGB(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves linear RGB channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
lrgbToRGB(lr, lg, lb, t)
Converts a set of linear RGB channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
lrgbToColor(lr, lg, lb, t)
Converts a set of linear RGB channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getHSL(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of HSL values with specified transparency information.
getHSL(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves HSL channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
hslToRGB(h, s, l, t)
Converts a set of HSL channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
hslToColor(h, s, l, t)
Converts a set of HSL channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getHSV(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of HSV values with specified transparency information.
getHSV(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves HSV channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
hsvToRGB(h, s, v, t)
Converts a set of HSV channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
hsvToColor(h, s, v, t)
Converts a set of HSV channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getHWB(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of HWB values with specified transparency information.
getHWB(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves HWB channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
hwbToRGB(h, w, b, t)
Converts a set of HWB channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
hwbToColor(h, w, b, t)
Converts a set of HWB channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getXYZ(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of XYZ values with specified transparency information.
getXYZ(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves XYZ channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
xyzToRGB(x, y, z, t)
Converts a set of XYZ channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information
xyzToColor(x, y, z, t)
Converts a set of XYZ channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getXYY(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of xyY values with specified transparency information.
getXYY(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves xyY channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
xyyToRGB(xc, yc, y, t)
Converts a set of xyY channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
xyyToColor(xc, yc, y, t)
Converts a set of xyY channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getLAB(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of CIELAB values with specified transparency information.
getLAB(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves CIELAB channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
labToRGB(l, a, b, t)
Converts a set of CIELAB channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
labToColor(l, a, b, t)
Converts a set of CIELAB channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getOKLAB(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of Oklab values with specified transparency information.
getOKLAB(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves Oklab channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
oklabToRGB(l, a, b, t)
Converts a set of Oklab channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
oklabToColor(l, a, b, t)
Converts a set of Oklab channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getLCH(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of CIELCh values with specified transparency information.
getLCH(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves CIELCh channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
lchToRGB(l, c, h, t)
Converts a set of CIELCh channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
lchToColor(l, c, h, t)
Converts a set of CIELCh channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
getOKLCH(r, g, b, t)
(Overload 1 of 2) Converts a set of sRGB channels to a set of Oklch values with specified transparency information.
getOKLCH(source)
(Overload 2 of 2) Retrieves Oklch channel values and transparency information from a "color" value.
oklchToRGB(l, c, h, t)
Converts a set of Oklch channel values to a set of sRGB values with specified transparency information.
oklchToColor(l, c, h, t)
Converts a set of Oklch channel values and transparency information to a "color" value.
contrastRatio(value1, value2)
Calculates the contrast ratio between two colors values based on the formula from version 2 of the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG).
isLightTheme(source)
Detects whether a background color represents a light theme or dark theme, based on the amount of contrast between the color and the white and black points.
grayscale(source)
Calculates the grayscale version of a color with the same relative luminance (i.e., brightness).
negative(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the negative (i.e., inverted) form of a specified color.
complement(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the complementary color for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
analogousColors(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the analogous colors for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
splitComplements(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the split-complementary colors for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
triadicColors(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the two triadic colors for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
tetradicColors(source, colorSpace, square)
Calculates the three square or rectangular tetradic colors for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
pentadicColors(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the four pentadic colors for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
hexadicColors(source, colorSpace)
Calculates the five hexadic colors for a `source` color using a cylindrical color space.
add(value1, value2, transpWeight)
Additively mixes two "color" values, with optional transparency weighting.
overlay(fg, bg)
Estimates the resulting color that appears on the chart when placing one color over another.
fromGradient(value, bottomValue, topValue, bottomColor, topColor, colorSpace)
Calculates the gradient color that corresponds to a specific value based on a defined value range and color space.
fromMultiStepGradient(value, steps, colors, colorSpace)
Calculates a multi-step gradient color that corresponds to a specific value based on an array of step points, an array of corresponding colors, and a color space.
gradientPalette(baseColor, stopColor, steps, strength, model)
Generates a palette from a gradient between two base colors.
monoPalette(baseColor, grayLuminance, variations, strength, colorSpace)
Generates a monochromatic palette from a specified base color.
harmonyPalette(baseColor, harmonyType, grayLuminance, variations, strength, colorSpace)
Generates a palette consisting of harmonious base colors and their monochromatic variants.
Demand Index (Hybrid Sibbet) by TradeQUODemand Index (Hybrid Sibbet) by TradeQUO \
\Overview\
The Demand Index (DI) was introduced by James Sibbet in the early 1990s to gauge “real” buying versus selling pressure by combining price‐change information with volume intensity. Unlike pure price‐based oscillators (e.g. RSI or MACD), the DI highlights moves backed by above‐average volume—helping traders distinguish genuine demand/supply from false breakouts or low‐liquidity noise.
\Calculation\
\
\ \Step 1: Weighted Price (P)\
For each bar t, compute a weighted price:
```
Pₜ = Hₜ + Lₜ + 2·Cₜ
```
where Hₜ=High, Lₜ=Low, Cₜ=Close of bar t.
Also compute Pₜ₋₁ for the prior bar.
\ \Step 2: Raw Range (R)\
Calculate the two‐bar range:
```
Rₜ = max(Hₜ, Hₜ₋₁) – min(Lₜ, Lₜ₋₁)
```
This Rₜ is used indirectly in the exponential dampener below.
\ \Step 3: Normalize Volume (VolNorm)\
Compute an EMA of volume over n₁ bars (e.g. n₁=13):
```
EMA_Volₜ = EMA(Volume, n₁)ₜ
```
Then
```
VolNormₜ = Volumeₜ / EMA_Volₜ
```
If EMA\_Volₜ ≈ 0, set VolNormₜ to a small default (e.g. 0.0001) to avoid division‐by‐zero.
\ \Step 4: BuyPower vs. SellPower\
Calculate “raw” BuyPowerₜ and SellPowerₜ depending on whether Pₜ > Pₜ₋₁ (bullish) or Pₜ < Pₜ₋₁ (bearish). Use an exponential dampener factor Dₜ to moderate extreme moves when true range is small. Specifically:
• If Pₜ > Pₜ₋₁,
```
BuyPowerₜ = (VolNormₜ) / exp
```
otherwise
```
BuyPowerₜ = VolNormₜ.
```
• If Pₜ < Pₜ₋₁,
```
SellPowerₜ = (VolNormₜ) / exp
```
otherwise
```
SellPowerₜ = VolNormₜ.
```
Here, H₀ and L₀ are the very first bar’s High/Low—used to calibrate the scale of the dampening. If the denominator of the exponential is near zero, substitute a small epsilon (e.g. 1e-10).
\ \Step 5: Smooth Buy/Sell Power\
Apply a short EMA (n₂ bars, typically n₂=2) to each:
```
EMA_Buyₜ = EMA(BuyPower, n₂)ₜ
EMA_Sellₜ = EMA(SellPower, n₂)ₜ
```
\ \Step 6: Raw Demand Index (DI\_raw)\
```
DI_rawₜ = EMA_Buyₜ – EMA_Sellₜ
```
A positive DI\_raw indicates that buying force (normalized by volume) exceeds selling force; a negative value indicates the opposite.
\ \Step 7: Optional EMA Smoothing on DI (DI)\
To reduce choppiness, compute an EMA over DI\_raw (n₃ bars, e.g. n₃ = 1–5):
```
DIₜ = EMA(DI_raw, n₃)ₜ.
```
If n₃ = 1, DI = DI\_raw (no further smoothing).
\
\Interpretation\
\
\ \Crossing Zero Line\
• DI\_raw (or DI) crossing from below to above zero signals that cumulative buying pressure (over the chosen smoothing window) has overcome selling pressure—potential Long signal.
• Crossing from above to below zero signals dominant selling pressure—potential Short signal.
\ \DI\_raw vs. DI (EMA)\
• When DI\_raw > DI (the EMA of DI\_raw), bullish momentum is accelerating.
• When DI\_raw < DI, bullish momentum is weakening (or bearish acceleration).
\ \Divergences\
• If price makes new highs while DI fails to make higher highs (DI\_raw or DI declining), this hints at weakening buying power (“bearish divergence”), possibly preceding a reversal.
• If price makes new lows while DI fails to make lower lows (“bullish divergence”), this may signal waning selling pressure and a potential bounce.
\ \Volume Confirmation\
• A strong price move without a corresponding rise in DI often indicates low‐volume “fake” moves.
• Conversely, a modest price move with a large DI spike suggests true institutional participation—often a more reliable breakout.
\
\Usage Notes & Warnings\
\
\ \Never Use DI in Isolation\
It is a \filter\ and \confirmation\ tool—combine with price‐action (trendlines, support/resistance, candlestick patterns) and risk management (stop‐losses) before executing trades.
\ \Parameter Selection\
• \Vol EMA length (n₁)\: Commonly 13–20 bars. Shorter → more responsive to volume spikes, but noisier.
• \Buy/Sell EMA length (n₂)\: Typically 2 bars for fast smoothing.
• \DI smoothing (n₃)\: Usually 1 (no smoothing) or 3–5 for moderate smoothing. Long DI\_EMA (e.g. 20–50) gives a slower signal.
\ \Market Adaptation\
Works well in liquid futures, indices, and heavily traded stocks. In thinly traded or highly erratic markets, adjust n₁ upward (e.g., 20–30) to reduce noise.
---
\In Summary\
The Demand Index (James Sibbet) uses a three‐stage smoothing (volume → Buy/Sell Power → DI) to reveal true demand/supply imbalance. By combining normalized volume with price change, Sibbet’s DI helps traders identify momentum backed by real participation—filtering out “empty” moves and spotting early divergences. Always confirm DI signals with price action and sound risk controls before trading.
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR)This Pine Script implements the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), a risk metric that evaluates the potential losses in a financial portfolio beyond a certain confidence level, incorporating both the Value at Risk (VaR) and the expected loss given that the VaR threshold has been breached.
Key Features:
Input Parameters:
length: Defines the observation period in days (default is 252, typically used to represent the number of trading days in a year).
confidence: Specifies the confidence interval for calculating VaR and CVaR, with values between 0.5 and 0.99 (default is 0.95, indicating a 95% confidence level).
Logarithmic Returns Calculation: The script computes the logarithmic returns based on the daily closing prices, a common method to measure financial asset returns, given by:
Log Return=ln(PtPt−1)
Log Return=ln(Pt−1Pt)
where PtPt is the price at time tt, and Pt−1Pt−1 is the price at the previous time point.
VaR Calculation: Value at Risk (VaR) is estimated as the percentile of the returns array corresponding to the given confidence interval. This represents the maximum loss expected over a given time horizon under normal market conditions at the specified confidence level.
CVaR Calculation: The Conditional VaR (CVaR) is calculated as the average of the returns that fall below the VaR threshold. This represents the expected loss given that the loss has exceeded the VaR threshold.
Visualization: The script plots two key risk measures:
VaR: The maximum potential loss at the specified confidence level.
CVaR: The average of the losses beyond the VaR threshold.
The script also includes a neutral line at zero to help visualize the losses and their magnitude.
Source and Scientific Background:
The concept of Value at Risk (VaR) was popularized by J.P. Morgan in the 1990s, and it has since become a widely-used tool for risk management (Jorion, 2007). Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), also known as Expected Shortfall, addresses the limitation of VaR by considering the severity of losses beyond the VaR threshold (Rockafellar & Uryasev, 2002). CVaR provides a more comprehensive risk measure, especially in extreme tail risk scenarios.
References:
Jorion, P. (2007). Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. McGraw-Hill Education.
Rockafellar, R.T., & Uryasev, S. (2002). Conditional Value-at-Risk for General Loss Distributions. Journal of Banking & Finance, 26(7), 1443–1471.
Bat Harmonic Pattern [TradingFinder] Bat Chart Indicator🔵 Introduction
The Bat Harmonic Pattern, created by Scott Carney in the 1990s, is a sophisticated tool in technical analysis, used to identify potential reversal points in price movements by leveraging Fibonacci ratios.
This pattern is classified into two primary types: the Bullish Bat Pattern, which signals the end of a downtrend and the beginning of an uptrend, and the Bearish Bat Pattern, which indicates the conclusion of an uptrend and the onset of a downtrend.
🟣 Bullish Bat Pattern
The Bullish Bat Pattern is designed to identify when a downtrend is likely to end and a new uptrend is about to begin. The key feature of this pattern is Point D, which typically aligns near the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg.
This point is considered a strong buy zone. When the price reaches Point D after a significant downtrend, it often indicates a potential reversal, presenting a buying opportunity for traders anticipating the start of an upward movement.
🟣 Bearish Bat Pattern
In contrast, the Bearish Bat Pattern forms when an uptrend is nearing its conclusion. Point D, which also typically aligns near the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the XA leg, serves as a critical point for traders.
This point is regarded as a strong sell zone, signaling that the uptrend may be ending, and a downtrend could be imminent. Traders often open short positions when they identify this pattern, aiming to capitalize on the anticipated downward movement.
🔵 How to Use
The Bat Pattern consists of five key points: X, A, B, C, and D, and four waves: XA, AB, BC, and CD. Fibonacci ratios play a crucial role in this pattern, helping traders pinpoint precise entry and exit points. In both the Bullish and Bearish Bat Patterns, the 88.6% retracement of the XA leg is a critical level for identifying potential reversal points.
🟣 Bullish Bat Pattern
Traders typically enter buy positions after Point D forms, expecting the downtrend to end and a new uptrend to start. This point, located near the 88.6% retracement of the XA leg, serves as a reliable buy signal.
🟣 Bearish Bat Pattern
Traders usually open short positions after identifying Point D, expecting the uptrend to end and a downtrend to begin. This point, also near the 88.6% retracement of the XA leg, acts as a valid sell signal.
🟣 Trading Tips for the Bat Pattern
Accurate Fibonacci Point Identification : Accurately identify Points X, A, B, C, and D, and calculate the Fibonacci ratios between these points. Point D should ideally be near the 88.6% retracement of the XA leg.
Signal Confirmation with Other Tools : To enhance the pattern's accuracy, avoid trading solely based on the Bat Pattern.
Risk Management : Always use stop-loss orders. In a Bullish Bat Pattern, place the stop-loss below Point X, and in a Bearish Bat Pattern, above Point X. This helps limit potential losses if the pattern fails.
Wait for Price Movement Confirmation : After identifying Point D, wait for the price to move in the anticipated direction to confirm the pattern's validity before entering a trade.
Set Realistic Profit Targets : Use Fibonacci retracement levels to set realistic profit targets, such as 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels of the CD leg. This strategy helps maximize profits and prevents premature exits.
🔵 Setting
🟣 Logical Setting
ZigZag Pivot Period : You can adjust the period so that the harmonic patterns are adjusted according to the pivot period you want. This factor is the most important parameter in pattern recognition.
Show Valid Forma t: If this parameter is on "On" mode, only patterns will be displayed that they have exact format and no noise can be seen in them. If "Off" is, the patterns displayed that maybe are noisy and do not exactly correspond to the original pattern.
Show Formation Last Pivot Confirm : if Turned on, you can see this ability of patterns when their last pivot is formed. If this feature is off, it will see the patterns as soon as they are formed. The advantage of this option being clear is less formation of fielded patterns, and it is accompanied by the latest pattern seeing and a sharp reduction in reward to risk.
Period of Formation Last Pivot : Using this parameter you can determine that the last pivot is based on Pivot period.
🟣 Genaral Setting
Show : Enter "On" to display the template and "Off" to not display the template.
Color : Enter the desired color to draw the pattern in this parameter.
LineWidth : You can enter the number 1 or numbers higher than one to adjust the thickness of the drawing lines. This number must be an integer and increases with increasing thickness.
LabelSize : You can adjust the size of the labels by using the "size.auto", "size.tiny", "size.smal", "size.normal", "size.large" or "size.huge" entries.
🟣 Alert Setting
Alert : On / Off
Message Frequency : This string parameter defines the announcement frequency. Choices include: "All" (activates the alert every time the function is called), "Once Per Bar" (activates the alert only on the first call within the bar), and "Once Per Bar Close" (the alert is activated only by a call at the last script execution of the real-time bar upon closing). The default setting is "Once per Bar".
Show Alert Time by Time Zone : The date, hour, and minute you receive in alert messages can be based on any time zone you choose. For example, if you want New York time, you should enter "UTC-4". This input is set to the time zone "UTC" by default.
🔵 Conclusion
The Bat Harmonic Pattern is a powerful tool in technical analysis, offering traders the ability to identify critical reversal points using Fibonacci ratios. By recognizing the Bullish and Bearish Bat Patterns, traders can anticipate potential trend reversals and make informed trading decisions.
However, it is essential to combine the Bat Pattern with other technical analysis tools and confirm signals for better trading outcomes. With proper use, this pattern can help traders minimize risk and optimize their entry and exit points in the market.
All Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically draws and sends alerts for all of the harmonic patterns in my public library as they occur. The patterns included are as follows:
• Bearish 5-0
• Bullish 5-0
• Bearish ABCD
• Bullish ABCD
• Bearish Alternate Bat
• Bullish Alternate Bat
• Bearish Bat
• Bullish Bat
• Bearish Butterfly
• Bullish Butterfly
• Bearish Cassiopeia A
• Bullish Cassiopeia A
• Bearish Cassiopeia B
• Bullish Cassiopeia B
• Bearish Cassiopeia C
• Bullish Cassiopeia C
• Bearish Crab
• Bullish Crab
• Bearish Deep Crab
• Bullish Deep Crab
• Bearish Cypher
• Bullish Cypher
• Bearish Gartley
• Bullish Gartley
• Bearish Shark
• Bullish Shark
• Bearish Three-Drive
• Bullish Three-Drive
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Measurement Tolerances
Tolerance refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. I have applied this concept in my pattern detection logic and have set default tolerances where applicable, as perfect patterns are, needless to say, very rare.
Chart Patterns
Generally speaking price charts are nothing more than a series of swing highs and swing lows. When demand outweighs supply over a period of time prices swing higher and when supply outweighs demand over a period of time prices swing lower. These swing highs and swing lows can form patterns that offer insight into the prevailing supply and demand dynamics at play at the relevant moment in time.
‘Let us assume… that you the reader, are not a member of that mysterious inner circle known to the boardrooms as “the insiders”… But it is fairly certain that there are not nearly so many “insiders” as amateur trader supposes and… It is even more certain that insiders can be wrong… Any success they have, however, can be accomplished only by buying and selling… hey can do neither without altering the delicate poise of supply and demand that governs prices. Whatever they do is sooner or later reflected on the charts where you… can detect it. Or detect, at least, the way in which the supply-demand equation is being affected… So, you do not need to be an insider to ride with them frequently… prices move in trends. Some of those trends are straight, some are curved; some are brief and some are long and continued… produced in a series of action and reaction waves of great uniformity. Sooner or later, these trends change direction; they may reverse (as from up to down), or they may be interrupted by some sort of sideways movement and then, after a time, proceed again in their former direction… when a price trend is in the process of reversal… a characteristic area or pattern takes shape on the chart, which becomes recognisable as a reversal formation… Needless to say, the first and most important task of the technical chart analyst is to learn to know the important reversal formations and to judge what they may signify in terms of trading opportunities’ (Edwards & Magee, 1948).
This is as true today as it was when Edwards and Magee were writing in the first half of the last Century, study your patterns and make judgements for yourself about what their implications truly are on the markets and timeframes you are interested in trading.
Over the years, traders have come to discover a multitude of chart and candlestick patterns that are supposed to pertain information on future price movements. However, it is never so clear cut in practice and patterns that where once considered to be reversal patterns are now considered to be continuation patterns and vice versa. Bullish patterns can have bearish implications and bearish patterns can have bullish implications. As such, I would highly encourage you to do your own backtesting.
There is no denying that chart patterns exist, but their implications will vary from market to market and timeframe to timeframe. So it is down to you as an individual to study them and make decisions about how they may be used in a strategic sense.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements. The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
█ INPUTS
• Change pattern and label colours
• Show or hide patterns individually
• Adjust pattern tolerances
• Set or remove alerts for individual patterns
█ NOTES
You can test the patterns with your own strategies manually by applying the indicator to your chart while in bar replay mode and playing through the history. You could also automate this process with PineScript by using the conditions from my swing and pattern libraries as entry conditions in the strategy tester or your own custom made strategy screener.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ SOURCES
Edwards, R., & Magee, J. (1948) Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (10th edn). Reprint, Boca Raton, Florida: Taylor and Francis Group, CRC Press: 2013.
Bearish Cassiopeia C Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bearish Cassiopeia C harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia C Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia C patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being higher than the first peak. And the third trough being lower than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is higher than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia C patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being lower than the first trough. And the third peak being higher than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is lower than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Bullish Cassiopeia C Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bullish Cassiopeia C harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia C Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia C patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being higher than the first peak. And the third trough being lower than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is higher than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia C patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being lower than the first trough. And the third peak being higher than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is lower than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Bearish Cassiopeia B Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bearish Cassiopeia B harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia B Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia B patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being lower than the first peak. And the third trough being lower than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is also lower than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia B patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being higher than the first trough. And the third peak being higher than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is also higher than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Bullish Cassiopeia B Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bullish Cassiopeia B harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia B Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia B patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being lower than the first peak. And the third trough being lower than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is also lower than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia B patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being higher than the first trough. And the third peak being higher than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is also higher than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Bearish Cassiopeia A Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bearish Cassiopeia A harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia A Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia A patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being higher than the first peak. And the third trough being higher than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is also higher than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia A patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being lower than the first trough. And the third peak being lower than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is also lower than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Bullish Cassiopeia A Harmonic Patterns [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator automatically detects and draws bullish Cassiopeia A harmonic patterns and price projections derived from the ranges that constitute the patterns.
Cassiopeia A, B and C harmonic patterns are patterns that I created/discovered myself. They are all inspired by the Cassiopeia constellation and each one is based on different rotations of the constellation as it moves through the sky. The range ratios are also based on the constellation's right ascension and declination listed on Wikipedia:
Right ascension 22h 57m 04.5897s–03h 41m 14.0997s
Declination 77.6923447°–48.6632690°
en.wikipedia.org
I actually developed this idea quite a while ago now but have not felt audacious enough to introduce a new harmonic pattern, let alone 3 at the same time! But I have since been able to run backtests on tick data going back to 2002 across a variety of market and timeframe combinations and have learned that the Cassiopeia patterns can certainly hold their own against the currently known harmonic patterns. As can be seen in the picture above the bullish Cassiopeia A caught the 2009 bear market bottom almost perfectly.
I would also point out that the Cassiopeia constellation does actually look like a harmonic pattern and the Cassiopeia A star is literally the 'strongest source of radio emission in the sky beyond the solar system', so its arguably more of a real harmonic phenomenon than the current patterns.
www.britannica.com
chandra.si.edu
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a close price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a close price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Range
The range is simply the difference between the current peak and current trough prices, generally expressed in terms of points or pips.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Upper and Lower Trends
• A multi-part return line uptrend begins with the formation of a new return line uptrend and continues until a new downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend and continues until a new return line uptrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend and continues until a new return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part return line downtrend begins with the formation of a new return line downtrend and continues until a new uptrend ends the trend.
Double Trends
• A double uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price and the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A double downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price and the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
Muti-Part Double Trends
• A multi-part double uptrend begins with the formation of a new uptrend that proceeds a new return line uptrend, and continues until a new downtrend or return line downtrend ends the trend.
• A multi-part double downtrend begins with the formation of a new downtrend that proceeds a new return line downtrend, and continues until a new uptrend or return line uptrend ends the trend.
Wave Cycles
A wave cycle is here defined as a complete two-part move between a swing high and a swing low, or a swing low and a swing high. The first swing high or swing low will set the course for the sequence of wave cycles that follow; for example a chart that begins with a swing low will form its first complete wave cycle upon the formation of the first complete swing high and vice versa.
Figure 1.
Retracement and Extension Ratios
Retracement and extension ratios are calculated by dividing the current range by the preceding range and multiplying the answer by 100. Retracement ratios are those that are equal to or below 100% of the preceding range and extension ratios are those that are above 100% of the preceding range.
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Ratios
The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each number is the sum of the two preceding numbers, starting with 0 and 1. For example 0 + 1 = 1, 1 + 1 = 2, 1 + 2 = 3, and so on. Ultimately, we could go on forever but the first few numbers in the sequence are as follows: 0 , 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144.
The extension ratios are calculated by dividing each number in the sequence by the number preceding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 2/1 = 2, 3/2 = 1.5, 5/3 = 1.6666..., 8/5 = 1.6, 13/8 = 1.625, 21/13 = 1.6153..., 34/21 = 1.6190..., 55/34 = 1.6176..., 89/55 = 1.6181..., 144/89 = 1.6179..., and so on. The retracement ratios are calculated by inverting this process and dividing each number in the sequence by the number proceeding it. For example 0/1 = 0, 1/1 = 1, 1/2 = 0.5, 2/3 = 0.666..., 3/5 = 0.6, 5/8 = 0.625, 8/13 = 0.6153..., 13/21 = 0.6190..., 21/34 = 0.6176..., 34/55 = 0.6181..., 55/89 = 0.6179..., 89/144 = 0.6180..., and so on.
1.618 is considered to be the 'golden ratio', found in many natural phenomena such as the growth of seashells and the branching of trees. Some now speculate the universe oscillates at a frequency of 0,618 Hz, which could help to explain such phenomena, but this theory has yet to be proven.
Traders and analysts use Fibonacci retracement and extension indicators, consisting of horizontal lines representing different Fibonacci ratios, for identifying potential levels of support and resistance. Fibonacci ranges are typically drawn from left to right, with retracement levels representing ratios inside of the current range and extension levels representing ratios extended outside of the current range. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing low, the Fibonacci range is drawn from peak to trough. If the current wave cycle ends on a swing high the Fibonacci range is drawn from trough to peak.
Harmonic Patterns
The concept of harmonic patterns in trading was first introduced by H.M. Gartley in his book "Profits in the Stock Market", published in 1935. Gartley observed that markets have a tendency to move in repetitive patterns, and he identified several specific patterns that he believed could be used to predict future price movements.
Since then, many other traders and analysts have built upon Gartley's work and developed their own variations of harmonic patterns. One such contributor is Larry Pesavento, who developed his own methods for measuring harmonic patterns using Fibonacci ratios. Pesavento has written several books on the subject of harmonic patterns and Fibonacci ratios in trading. Another notable contributor to harmonic patterns is Scott Carney, who developed his own approach to harmonic trading in the late 1990s and also popularised the use of Fibonacci ratios to measure harmonic patterns. Carney expanded on Gartley's work and also introduced several new harmonic patterns, such as the Shark pattern and the 5-0 pattern.
The bullish and bearish Gartley patterns are the oldest recognized harmonic patterns in trading and all the other harmonic patterns are ultimately modifications of the original Gartley patterns. Gartley patterns are fundamentally composed of 5 points, or 4 waves.
Bullish and Bearish Cassiopeia A Harmonic Patterns
• Bullish Cassiopeia A patterns are fundamentally composed of three troughs and two peaks. The second peak being higher than the first peak. And the third trough being higher than both the first and second troughs, while the second trough is also higher than the first.
• Bearish Cassiopeia A patterns are fundamentally composed of three peaks and two troughs. The second trough being lower than the first trough. And the third peak being lower than both the first and second peaks, while the second peak is also lower than the first.
The ratio measurements I use to detect the patterns are as follows:
• Wave 1 of the pattern, generally referred to as XA, has no specific ratio requirements.
• Wave 2 of the pattern, generally referred to as AB, should retrace by at least 11.34%, but no further than 22.31% of the range set by wave 1.
• Wave 3 of the pattern, generally referred to as BC, should extend by at least 225.7%, but no further than 341% of the range set by wave 2.
• Wave 4 of the pattern, generally referred to as CD, should retrace by at least 77.69%, but no further than 88.66% of the range set by wave 3.
Measurement Tolerances
In general, tolerance in measurements refers to the allowable variation or deviation from a specific value or dimension. It is the range within which a particular measurement is considered to be acceptable or accurate. In this script I have applied this concept to the measurement of harmonic pattern ratios to increase to the frequency of pattern occurrences.
For example, the AB measurement of Gartley patterns is generally set at around 61.8%, but with such specificity in the measuring requirements the patterns are very rare. We can increase the frequency of pattern occurrences by setting a tolerance. A tolerance of 10% to both downside and upside, which is the default setting for all tolerances, means we would have a tolerable measurement range between 51.8-71.8%, thus increasing the frequency of occurrence.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• AB Lower Tolerance
• AB Upper Tolerance
• BC Lower Tolerance
• BC Upper Tolerance
• CD Lower Tolerance
• CD Upper Tolerance
• Pattern Color
• Label Color
• Show Projections
• Extend Current Projection Lines
Alerts
Users can set alerts for when the patterns occur.
█ LIMITATIONS
All green and red candle calculations are based on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. This may cause some unexpected behaviour on some markets and timeframes. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with.
█ NOTES
I know a few people have been requesting a single indicator that contains all my patterns and I definitely hear you on that one. However, I have been very busy working on other projects while trying to trade and be a human at the same time. For now I am going to maintain my original approach of releasing each pattern individually so as to maintain consistency. But I am now also working on getting my some of my libraries ready for public release and in doing so I will finally be able to fit all patterns into one script. I will also be giving my scripts some TLC by making them cleaner once I have the libraries up and running. Please bear with me in the meantime, this may take a while. Cheers!
Adaptive SMI Ergodic StrategyThe Adaptive SMI Ergodic Strategy aims to capture the momentum and direction of a financial asset by leveraging the Stochastic Momentum Index Indicator (SMI) in an ergodic form. The strategy uses two lengths for the SMI, a shorter and a longer one, and an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to serve as the signal line. Additionally, the strategy incorporates customizable overbought and oversold thresholds to improve the probability of successful trade execution.
How It Works:
Long Entry: A long position is taken when the ergodic SMI crosses over the EMA signal line, and both the SMI and EMA are below the oversold threshold.
Short Entry: A short position is initiated when the ergodic SMI crosses under the EMA signal line, and both the SMI and EMA are above the overbought threshold.
The strategy plots the SMI in yellow and the EMA signal line in purple. Horizontal lines indicate the overbought and oversold thresholds, and a colored background helps in visually identifying these zones.
Parameters:
Long Length: The length of the long EMA in SMI calculation.
Short Length: The length of the short EMA in SMI calculation.
Signal Line Length: The length for the EMA serving as the signal line.
Oversold: Customizable threshold for the oversold condition.
Overbought: Customizable threshold for the overbought condition.
Historical Context: The SMI Indicator
The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) was developed by William Blau in the early 1990s as an enhancement to traditional stochastic oscillators. The SMI provides a range of values like a traditional stochastic, but it differs in that it calculates the distance of the current close relative to the median of the high/low range, as opposed to the close relative to the low. As a result, the SMI is less erratic and more responsive, offering a clearer picture of market trends.
In recent years, the SMI has been adapted into ergodic forms to facilitate smoother data analysis, reduce lag, and improve trading accuracy. The Adaptive SMI Ergodic Strategy leverages these modern enhancements to offer a more robust, customizable trading strategy that aligns with various market conditions.
[blackcat] L1 Reverse Choppiness IndexThe Choppiness Index is a technical indicator that is used to measure market volatility and trendiness. It is designed to help traders identify when the market is trending and when it is choppy, meaning that it is moving sideways with no clear direction. The Choppiness Index was first introduced by Australian commodity trader E.W. Dreiss in the late 1990s, and it has since become a popular tool among traders.
Today, I created a reverse version of choppiness index indicator, which uses upward direction as indicating strong trend rather than a traditional downward direction. Also, it max values are exceeding 100 compared to a traditional one. I use red color to indicate a strong trend, while yellow as sideways. Fuchsia zone are also incorporated as an indicator of sideways. One thing that you need to know: different time frames may need optimize parameters of this indicator. Finally, I'd be happy to explain more about this piece of code.
The code begins by defining two input variables: `len` and `atrLen`. `len` sets the length of the lookback period for the highest high and lowest low, while `atrLen` sets the length of the lookback period for the ATR calculation.
The `atr()` function is then used to calculate the ATR, which is a measure of volatility based on the range of price movement over a certain period of time. The `highest()` and `lowest()` functions are used to calculate the highest high and lowest low over the lookback period specified by `len`.
The `range`, `up`, and `down` variables are then calculated based on the highest high, lowest low, and closing price. The `sum()` function is used to calculate the sum of ranges over the lookback period.
Finally, the Choppiness Index is calculated using the ATR and the sum of ranges over the lookback period. The `log10()` function is used to take the logarithm of the sum divided by the lookback period, and the result is multiplied by 100 to get a percentage. The Choppiness Index is then plotted on the chart using the `plot()` function.
This code can be used directly in TradingView to plot the Choppiness Index on a chart. It can also be incorporated into custom trading strategies to help traders make more informed decisions based on market volatility and trendiness.
I hope this explanation helps! Let me know if you have any further questions.
Multi Kernel Regression [ChartPrime]The "Multi Kernel Regression" is a versatile trading indicator that provides graphical interpretations of market trends by using different kernel regression methods. It's beneficial because it smoothes out price data, creating a clearer picture of price movements, and can be tailored according to the user's preference with various options.
What makes this indicator uniquely versatile is the 'Kernel Select' feature, which allows you to choose from a variety of regression kernel types, such as Gaussian, Logistic, Cosine, and many more. In fact, you have 17 options in total, making this an adaptable tool for diverse market contexts.
The bandwidth input parameter directly affects the smoothness of the regression line. While a lower value will make the line more sensitive to price changes by sticking closely to the actual prices, a higher value will smooth out the line even further by placing more emphasis on distant prices.
It's worth noting that the indicator's 'Repaint' function, which re-estimates work according to the most recent data, is not a deficiency or a flaw. Instead, it’s a crucial part of its functionality, updating the regression line with the most recent data, ensuring the indicator measurements remain as accurate as possible. We have however included a non-repaint feature that provides fixed calculations, creating a steady line that does not change once it has been plotted, for a different perspective on market trends.
This indicator also allows you to customize the line color, style, and width, allowing you to seamlessly integrate it into your existing chart setup. With labels indicating potential market turn points, you can stay on top of significant price movements.
Repaint : Enabling this allows the estimator to repaint to maintain accuracy as new data comes in.
Kernel Select : This option allows you to select from an array of kernel types such as Triangular, Gaussian, Logistic, etc. Each kernel has a unique weight function which influences how the regression line is calculated.
Bandwidth : This input, a scalar value, controls the regression line's sensitivity towards the price changes. A lower value makes the regression line more sensitive (closer to price) and higher value makes it smoother.
Source : Here you denote which price the indicator should consider for calculation. Traditionally, this is set as the close price.
Deviation : Adjust this to change the distance of the channel from the regression line. Higher values widen the channel, lower values make it smaller.
Line Style : This provides options to adjust the visual style of the regression lines. Options include Solid, Dotted, and Dashed.
Labels : Enabling this introduces markers at points where the market direction switches. Adjust the label size to suit your preference.
Colors : Customize color schemes for bullish and bearish trends along with the text color to match your chart setup.
Kernel regression, the technique behind the Multi Kernel Regression Indicator, has a rich history rooted in the world of statistical analysis and machine learning.
The origins of kernel regression are linked to the work of Emanuel Parzen in the 1960s. He was a pioneer in the development of nonparametric statistics, a domain where kernel regression plays a critical role. Although originally developed for the field of probability, these methods quickly found application in various other scientific disciplines, notably in econometrics and finance.
Kernel regression became really popular in the 1980s and 1990s along with the rise of other nonparametric techniques, like local regression and spline smoothing. It was during this time that kernel regression methods were extensively studied and widely applied in the fields of machine learning and data science.
What makes the kernel regression ideal for various statistical tasks, including financial market analysis, is its flexibility. Unlike linear regression, which assumes a specific functional form for the relationship between the independent and dependent variables, kernel regression makes no such assumptions. It creates a smooth curve fit to the data, which makes it extremely useful in capturing complex relationships in data.
In the context of stock market analysis, kernel regression techniques came into use in the late 20th century as computational power improved and these techniques could be more easily applied. Since then, they have played a fundamental role in financial market modeling, market prediction, and the development of trading indicators, like the Multi Kernel Regression Indicator.
Today, the use of kernel regression has solidified its place in the world of trading and market analysis, being widely recognized as one of the most effective methods for capturing and visualizing market trends.
The Multi Kernel Regression Indicator is built upon kernel regression, a versatile statistical method pioneered by Emanuel Parzen in the 1960s and subsequently refined for financial market analysis. It provides a robust and flexible approach to capturing complex market data relationships.
This indicator is more than just a charting tool; it reflects the power of computational trading methods, combining statistical robustness with visual versatility. It's an invaluable asset for traders, capturing and interpreting complex market trends while integrating seamlessly into diverse trading scenarios.
In summary, the Multi Kernel Regression Indicator stands as a testament to kernel regression's historic legacy, modern computational power, and contemporary trading insight.
Endpointed SSA of Price [Loxx]The Endpointed SSA of Price: A Comprehensive Tool for Market Analysis and Decision-Making
The financial markets present sophisticated challenges for traders and investors as they navigate the complexities of market behavior. To effectively interpret and capitalize on these complexities, it is crucial to employ powerful analytical tools that can reveal hidden patterns and trends. One such tool is the Endpointed SSA of Price, which combines the strengths of Caterpillar Singular Spectrum Analysis, a sophisticated time series decomposition method, with insights from the fields of economics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning.
The Endpointed SSA of Price has its roots in the interdisciplinary fusion of mathematical techniques, economic understanding, and advancements in artificial intelligence. This unique combination allows for a versatile and reliable tool that can aid traders and investors in making informed decisions based on comprehensive market analysis.
The Endpointed SSA of Price is not only valuable for experienced traders but also serves as a useful resource for those new to the financial markets. By providing a deeper understanding of market forces, this innovative indicator equips users with the knowledge and confidence to better assess risks and opportunities in their financial pursuits.
█ Exploring Caterpillar SSA: Applications in AI, Machine Learning, and Finance
Caterpillar SSA (Singular Spectrum Analysis) is a non-parametric method for time series analysis and signal processing. It is based on a combination of principles from classical time series analysis, multivariate statistics, and the theory of random processes. The method was initially developed in the early 1990s by a group of Russian mathematicians, including Golyandina, Nekrutkin, and Zhigljavsky.
Background Information:
SSA is an advanced technique for decomposing time series data into a sum of interpretable components, such as trend, seasonality, and noise. This decomposition allows for a better understanding of the underlying structure of the data and facilitates forecasting, smoothing, and anomaly detection. Caterpillar SSA is a particular implementation of SSA that has proven to be computationally efficient and effective for handling large datasets.
Uses in AI and Machine Learning:
In recent years, Caterpillar SSA has found applications in various fields of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Some of these applications include:
1. Feature extraction: Caterpillar SSA can be used to extract meaningful features from time series data, which can then serve as inputs for machine learning models. These features can help improve the performance of various models, such as regression, classification, and clustering algorithms.
2. Dimensionality reduction: Caterpillar SSA can be employed as a dimensionality reduction technique, similar to Principal Component Analysis (PCA). It helps identify the most significant components of a high-dimensional dataset, reducing the computational complexity and mitigating the "curse of dimensionality" in machine learning tasks.
3. Anomaly detection: The decomposition of a time series into interpretable components through Caterpillar SSA can help in identifying unusual patterns or outliers in the data. Machine learning models trained on these decomposed components can detect anomalies more effectively, as the noise component is separated from the signal.
4. Forecasting: Caterpillar SSA has been used in combination with machine learning techniques, such as neural networks, to improve forecasting accuracy. By decomposing a time series into its underlying components, machine learning models can better capture the trends and seasonality in the data, resulting in more accurate predictions.
Application in Financial Markets and Economics:
Caterpillar SSA has been employed in various domains within financial markets and economics. Some notable applications include:
1. Stock price analysis: Caterpillar SSA can be used to analyze and forecast stock prices by decomposing them into trend, seasonal, and noise components. This decomposition can help traders and investors better understand market dynamics, detect potential turning points, and make more informed decisions.
2. Economic indicators: Caterpillar SSA has been used to analyze and forecast economic indicators, such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment rates. By decomposing these time series, researchers can better understand the underlying factors driving economic fluctuations and develop more accurate forecasting models.
3. Portfolio optimization: By applying Caterpillar SSA to financial time series data, portfolio managers can better understand the relationships between different assets and make more informed decisions regarding asset allocation and risk management.
Application in the Indicator:
In the given indicator, Caterpillar SSA is applied to a financial time series (price data) to smooth the series and detect significant trends or turning points. The method is used to decompose the price data into a set number of components, which are then combined to generate a smoothed signal. This signal can help traders and investors identify potential entry and exit points for their trades.
The indicator applies the Caterpillar SSA method by first constructing the trajectory matrix using the price data, then computing the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the matrix, and finally reconstructing the time series using a selected number of components. The reconstructed series serves as a smoothed version of the original price data, highlighting significant trends and turning points. The indicator can be customized by adjusting the lag, number of computations, and number of components used in the reconstruction process. By fine-tuning these parameters, traders and investors can optimize the indicator to better match their specific trading style and risk tolerance.
Caterpillar SSA is versatile and can be applied to various types of financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. It can also be combined with other technical analysis tools or indicators to create a comprehensive trading system. For example, a trader might use Caterpillar SSA to identify the primary trend in a market and then employ additional indicators, such as moving averages or RSI, to confirm the trend and generate trading signals.
In summary, Caterpillar SSA is a powerful time series analysis technique that has found applications in AI and machine learning, as well as financial markets and economics. By decomposing a time series into interpretable components, Caterpillar SSA enables better understanding of the underlying structure of the data, facilitating forecasting, smoothing, and anomaly detection. In the context of financial trading, the technique is used to analyze price data, detect significant trends or turning points, and inform trading decisions.
█ Input Parameters
This indicator takes several inputs that affect its signal output. These inputs can be classified into three categories: Basic Settings, UI Options, and Computation Parameters.
Source: This input represents the source of price data, which is typically the closing price of an asset. The user can select other price data, such as opening price, high price, or low price. The selected price data is then utilized in the Caterpillar SSA calculation process.
Lag: The lag input determines the window size used for the time series decomposition. A higher lag value implies that the SSA algorithm will consider a longer range of historical data when extracting the underlying trend and components. This parameter is crucial, as it directly impacts the resulting smoothed series and the quality of extracted components.
Number of Computations: This input, denoted as 'ncomp,' specifies the number of eigencomponents to be considered in the reconstruction of the time series. A smaller value results in a smoother output signal, while a higher value retains more details in the series, potentially capturing short-term fluctuations.
SSA Period Normalization: This input is used to normalize the SSA period, which adjusts the significance of each eigencomponent to the overall signal. It helps in making the algorithm adaptive to different timeframes and market conditions.
Number of Bars: This input specifies the number of bars to be processed by the algorithm. It controls the range of data used for calculations and directly affects the computation time and the output signal.
Number of Bars to Render: This input sets the number of bars to be plotted on the chart. A higher value slows down the computation but provides a more comprehensive view of the indicator's performance over a longer period. This value controls how far back the indicator is rendered.
Color bars: This boolean input determines whether the bars should be colored according to the signal's direction. If set to true, the bars are colored using the defined colors, which visually indicate the trend direction.
Show signals: This boolean input controls the display of buy and sell signals on the chart. If set to true, the indicator plots shapes (triangles) to represent long and short trade signals.
Static Computation Parameters:
The indicator also includes several internal parameters that affect the Caterpillar SSA algorithm, such as Maxncomp, MaxLag, and MaxArrayLength. These parameters set the maximum allowed values for the number of computations, the lag, and the array length, ensuring that the calculations remain within reasonable limits and do not consume excessive computational resources.
█ A Note on Endpionted, Non-repainting Indicators
An endpointed indicator is one that does not recalculate or repaint its past values based on new incoming data. In other words, the indicator's previous signals remain the same even as new price data is added. This is an important feature because it ensures that the signals generated by the indicator are reliable and accurate, even after the fact.
When an indicator is non-repainting or endpointed, it means that the trader can have confidence in the signals being generated, knowing that they will not change as new data comes in. This allows traders to make informed decisions based on historical signals, without the fear of the signals being invalidated in the future.
In the case of the Endpointed SSA of Price, this non-repainting property is particularly valuable because it allows traders to identify trend changes and reversals with a high degree of accuracy, which can be used to inform trading decisions. This can be especially important in volatile markets where quick decisions need to be made.
