Pullback Levels from ATH# ATH Pullback Levels
**Assess correction depth with precision – 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% below All-Time High**
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### Overview
This indicator draws **horizontal support lines** at **5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%** below the **All-Time High (ATH)** of any asset. Perfect for **swing traders**, **long-term investors**, and **bull market participants** who want to:
- Measure **pullback depth** in real-time
- Identify **potential support zones**
- Set **alerts** when price enters key retracement levels
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### Features
| Feature | Description |
|--------|-------------|
| **Dynamic ATH Tracking** | Automatically updates with every new high |
| **4 Pullback Levels** | 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% below ATH |
| **Live Pullback % Label** | Shows current % drop from ATH (top-right) |
| **Customizable Lines** | Toggle visibility, change colors & styles |
| **Built-in Alerts** | Trigger on entry into each zone |
| **No Errors** | Works on 50k+ bar charts (BTC, SPX, etc.) |
| **Time-Based Lines** | Uses `xloc.bar_time` – no 500-bar future limit |
---
### How to Use
1. Apply to any chart (stocks, crypto, forex, indices)
2. Watch the **info box** for current pullback %
3. Use lines as **potential buy zones** during corrections
4. Set **alerts** to be notified when price enters a level
> Example: If ATH = $100 →
> - 5% = $95
> - 10% = $90
> - 15% = $85
> - 20% = $80
---
### Inputs
- **Show 5% / 10% / 15% / 20% Level** → Toggle on/off
- **Line Colors** → Fully customizable
- **Line Style** → Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
---
### Alerts
Create alerts directly from the indicator:
- `"Entered 5% Pullback"`
- `"Entered 10% Pullback"`
- etc.
---
### Best For
- Bull market corrections
- Long-term position sizing
- Risk management in uptrends
- Swing entries on dips
---
### Notes
- Works on **all timeframes**
- **Log scale compatible** (lines adjust correctly)
- No repainting – ATH only updates on confirmed highs
---
**Built with Pine Script v6 – Clean, fast, reliable.**
*Happy trading!*
Análise Fundamentalista
FVG MagicFVG Magic — Fair Value Gaps with Smart Mitigation, Inversion & Auto-Clean-up
FVG Magic finds every tradable Fair Value Gap (FVG), shows who powered it, and then manages each gap intelligently as price interacts with it—so your chart stays actionable and clean.
Attribution
This tool is inspired by the idea popularized in “Volumatic Fair Value Gaps ” by BigBeluga (licensed CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). Credit to BigBeluga for advancing FVG visualization in the community.
Important: This is a from-scratch implementation—no code was copied from the original. I expanded the concept substantially with a different detection stack, a gap state machine (ACTIVE → 50% SQ → MITIGATED → INVERSED), auto-clean up rules, lookback/nearest-per-side pruning, zoom-proof volume meters, and timeframe auto-tuning for 15m/H1/H4.
What makes this version more accurate
Full-coverage detection (no “missed” gaps)
Default ICT-minimal rule (Bullish: low > high , Bearish: high < low ) catches all valid 3-candle FVGs.
Optional Strict filter (stricter structure checks) for traders who prefer only “clean” gaps.
Optional size percentile filter—off by default so nothing is hidden unless you choose to filter.
Correct handling of confirmations (wick vs close)
Mitigation Source is user-selectable: high/low (wick-based) or close (strict).
This avoids false “misses” when you expect wick confirmations (50% or full fill) but your logic required closes.
State-aware labelling to prevent misleading data
The Bull%/Bear% meter is shown only while a gap is ACTIVE.
As soon as a gap is 50% SQ, MITIGATED, or INVERSED, the meter is hidden and replaced with a clear tag—so you never read stale participation stats.
Robust zoom behaviour
The meter uses a fixed bar-width (not pixels), so it stays proportional and readable at any zoom level.
Deterministic lifecycle (no stale boxes)
Remove on 50% SQ (instant or delayed).
Inversion window after first entry: if price enters but doesn’t invert within N bars, the box auto-removes once fully filled.
Inversion clean up: after a confirmed flip, keep for N bars (context) then delete (or 0 = immediate).
Result: charts auto-maintain themselves and never “lie” about relevance.
Clarity near current price
Nearest-per-side (keep N closest bullish & bearish gaps by distance to the midpoint) focuses attention where it matters without altering detection accuracy.
Lookback (bars) ensures reproducible behaviour across accounts with different data history.
Timeframe-aware defaults
Sensible auto-tuning for 15m / H1 / H4 (right-extension length, meter width, inversion windows, clean up bars) to reduce setup friction and improve consistency.
What it does (under the hood)
Detects FVGs using ICT-minimal (default) or a stricter rule.
Samples volume from a 10× lower timeframe to split participation into Bull % / Bear % (sum = 100%).
Manages each gap through a state machine:
ACTIVE → 50% SQ (midline) → MITIGATED (full) → INVERSED (SR flip after fill).
Auto-clean up keeps only relevant levels, per your rules.
Dashboard (top-right) displays counts by side and the active state tags.
How to use it
First run (show everything)
Use Strict FVG Filter: OFF
Enable Size Filter (percentile): OFF
Mitigation Source: high/low (wick-based) or close (stricter), as you prefer.
Remove on 50% SQ: ON, Delay: 0
Read the context
While ACTIVE, use the Bull%/Bear% meter to gauge demand/supply behind the impulse that created the gap.
Confluence with your HTF structure, sessions, VWAP, OB/FVG, RSI/MACD, etc.
Trade interactions
50% SQ: often the highest-quality interaction; if removal is ON, the box clears = “job done.”
Full mitigation then rejection through the other side → tag changes to INVERSED (acts like SR). Keep for N bars, then auto-remove.
Keep the chart tidy (optional)
If too busy, enable Size Filter or set Nearest per side to 2–4.
Use Lookback (bars) to make behaviour consistent across symbols and histories.
Inputs (key ones)
Use Strict FVG Filter: OFF(default)/ON
Enable Size Filter (percentile): OFF(default)/ON + threshold
Mitigation Source: high/low or close
Remove on 50% SQ + Delay
Inversion window after entry (bars)
Remove inversed after (bars)
Lookback (bars), Nearest per side (N)
Right Extension Bars, Max FVGs, Meter width (bars)
Colours: Bullish, Bearish, Inversed fill
Suggested defaults (per TF)
15m: Extension 50, Max 12, Inversion window 8, Clean up 8, Meter width 20
H1: Extension 25, Max 10, Inversion window 6, Clean up 6, Meter width 15
H4: Extension 15, Max 8, Inversion window 5, Clean up 5, Meter width 10
Notes & edge cases
If a wick hits 50% or the far edge but state doesn’t change, you’re likely on close mode—switch to high/low for wick-based behaviour.
If a gap disappears, it likely met a clean up condition (50% removal, inversion window, inversion clean up, nearest-per-side, lookback, or max-cap).
Meters are hidden after ACTIVE to avoid stale percentages.
DA Mark on the wall Well it seems we ran the ball up one more time. i mean Percy is a train , but this thing is insane, Also if you like banter come join the crew discord.gg GREAT channel also free chat
EV/FCFThis script in the 6 version of Pine brings you the most accurate multiple of "fundamental valuation" in my opinion. EV/FCF gives you a real metric of how profitable is the company in this exact moment and also if the company is overvaluated or undervaluated.
💰 Position Size Table Compact Quickly see how many shares you can buy for preset investment amounts at the current price. This compact, customizable table is perfect for traders who want to calculate position sizes instantly without manual math.
Features
- Pre-set investment amounts: $500, $1000, $2000, $3000, $5000, $10000
- Per-row toggle: Show or hide specific investment amounts
- Live updates: Table recalculates as the stock price changes
- Customizable colors: Background, header, text, and border
- Master toggle: Hide or show the entire table on demand
Use it to
- Quickly calculate position sizes for multiple investment levels
- Plan trades efficiently and reduce manual calculation errors
- Keep your chart clean with a compact, flexible table
Screener Multi ADX + MACDThis screener helps to screen Nifty 200 stocks based on ADX threshold and MACD crossovers...
Quantum Portfolio vs S&P 500 (Base: May 2, 2021)This script compares the performance of a custom Quantum Portfolio — a weighted basket of quantum computing, semiconductor, and cybersecurity stocks — against the S&P 500 Index, with both series rebased to 100 on May 2 2021.
It provides a clear, normalized view of cumulative returns, allowing you to visualize portfolio outperformance or underperformance relative to the broader market benchmark.
Quantum Portfolio vs NASDAQ (Base: May 2, 2021)This custom Pine Script indicator tracks and compares the cumulative performance of a multi-asset “Quantum Portfolio” against the NASDAQ 100 benchmark, rebased to a common starting point on May 2, 2021.
Both series are normalized to a base value of 100 on that date, allowing direct visual comparison of percentage growth or decline over time.
FX Realized Volatility *The downward signal for Euqities!?*The Russel 2000 put in a new ath today as capital is moving further out the risk curve. Risk-Assets continue to rally to the upside.
This will last until we see a lasting driver happening on a real time basis that drag pull equties down
When volatility rises, we need to see the DRIVER of the volatility have persistence behind it as opposed to one off shocks.
We are not there yet as volatility in FX and bonds continues to compress since the April lows in equities.
Equities will continue to rally until long end yields blow out or the carry trade unwinds. Long end yields blowing out is not occuring on an imminent basis but the FX side of things could be a significant risk soon.
Its all about: When will that liquidity beginn to create inflation or a problem in the currency
Monitoring the equity vol, Bond vol and FX volatiliy is crucial here
You can watch them via:
VIX,
Move,
+ i build an Trading view modell which conducts the vol of the major FX pairs.
(its 100% free)
If you just want it simple, just look at USD & EUR vol as they are the most trades foreign exchange currencies.
Watching these 2 Risks (Vol & long-end) will put you upfront most people in the market.
Once we see information in the underlying economy shifting i will adjust my views as they relate to every major asset class.
But for now we are likely moving higher in basically every risky asset.
**Feel free to ask me any questions**
Live Economic Calendar (CE)This is fucking english!!!! Description Description Description Description Description Description Description Description Description Description Description Description
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FCBI Brake PressureBrake Pressure (FCBI − USIRYY)
Concept
The Brake Pressure indicator quantifies whether the bond market is braking or releasing liquidity relative to real yields (USIRYY).
It is derived from the Financial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) and expresses the balance between long-term yield pressure and real-rate dynamics.
Formula
Brake Pressure = FCBI − USIRYY
where FCBI = (US10Y) − (USINTR) − (CPI YoY)
Purpose
While FCBI measures the intensity of financial-condition pressure, Brake Pressure shows when that brake is being applied or released.
It captures the turning point of liquidity transmission in the financial system.
How to Read
Brake Pressure < 0 (orange) → Brake engaged → financial conditions tighter than real-rate baseline; liquidity constrained.
Brake Pressure ≈ 0 → Neutral zone → transition phase between tightening and easing.
Brake Pressure > 0 (teal) → Brake released → financial conditions looser than real-rate baseline; liquidity flows freely → late-cycle setup before recession.
Zero-Cross Logic
Cross ↑ above 0 → FCBI > USIRYY → brake released → liquidity acceleration → typically 6–18 months before recession.
Cross ↓ below 0 → FCBI < USIRYY → brake re-engaged → tightening resumes.
Historical Behavior
Each major U.S. recession (2001, 2008, 2020) was preceded by a Brake Pressure cross above zero after a negative phase, signaling that long yields had stopped resisting Fed cuts and liquidity was expanding.
Practical Use
• Identify late-cycle turning points and liquidity inflection phases.
• Combine with FCBI for a complete macro transmission picture.
• Watch for sustained positive readings as early macro-recession warnings.
Current Example (Oct 2025)
FCBI ≈ −3.1, USIRYY ≈ +3.0 → Brake Pressure ≈ −6.1 → Brake still engaged. When this crosses above 0, it signals that liquidity is free flowing and the recession countdown has begun.
Summary
FCBI shows how tight the brake is. Brake Pressure shows when the brake releases.
When Brake Pressure > 0, the system has entered the liquidity-expansion phase that historically precedes a U.S. recession.
Financial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) — US10Y brake on USIRYYFinancial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) – US10Y Brake on USIRYY
Concept
The Financial-Conditions Brake Index (FCBI) measures how U.S. long-term yields (US10Y) interact with the Federal Funds Rate (USINTR) and inflation (CPI YoY) to shape real-rate conditions (USIRYY).
It visualizes whether the bond market is tightening or loosening overall financial conditions relative to the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
Formula
FCBI = (US10Y) − (USINTR) − (CPI YoY)
How It Works
The FCBI expresses the difference between the long-term yield curve and short-term policy rates, adjusted for inflation. It shows whether the long end of the curve is amplifying or counteracting the Fed’s stance.
FCBI > +2 → Strong brake → Long yields remain elevated despite easing → tight conditions → recession delayed.
FCBI +1 to +2 → Mild brake → Financial transmission slower; lag ≈ 12–18 months.
FCBI 0 to +1 → Neutral → Typical early post-cut environment.
FCBI < 0 → Accelerator → Long yields and inflation expectations falling → liquidity flows freely → recession often follows within 6–14 months.
How to Read the Chart
Blue line (FCBI) shows the strength of the financial brake.
Red line (USIRYY) represents the real yield baseline.
Recession shading (gray) marks NBER recessions for comparison.
FCBI < USIRYY → Brake engaged → financial conditions tighter than real-rate baseline.
FCBI > USIRYY → Brake released → long end easing faster than policy → liquidity surge → late-cycle setup.
Historically, U.S. recessions begin on average about 14 months after the first Fed rate cut, and a decline of the FCBI below zero often precedes that window.
Practical Use
Use the FCBI to identify when policy transmission is blocked (brake engaged) or flowing (brake released).
Cross-check with yield-curve inversions, Fed policy shifts, and inflation expectations to estimate macro timing windows.
Current Example (Oct 2025)
FCBI ≈ −3.1, USIRYY ≈ +3.0 → Brake still engaged.
Once FCBI rises above USIRYY and crosses positive, it signals the “brake released” phase — historically the final liquidity surge before a U.S. recession.
Summary
FCBI shows how tight the brake is.
USIRYY shows how fast the car is moving.
When FCBI rises above USIRYY, the brake is released — liquidity accelerates and the historical recession countdown begins.
Yield Curve RegimesCurrently we are seeing equities and all other risk assets rallying to new all time high. But when will this stop?
There are multiple risks/signals i am monitoring to stay at the right side of the macro trade. Macro is everything: “When you get the Big-Picture wrong you wont live long.”
So lets go through a major risk that could be the catalyst for the next deeper correction
Capital needs to begin to move BACK across the risk curve as the yield curve steepens. We don't know if the source of the the crash will be from bear steepening or bull steepening because its unclear if long end rates blowing out will be the source of the crash.
If the Fed continues to make the policy error of being overly accommodative at this high level of nominal GDP + Inflation risk, the long end of the curve will price this.
Simple: If the Fed is to lose the long end can move up to price the inflation risk, which could ultimately pull risk assets down.
We have not seen this yet because the last inflation prints came in flat, but I expect these to come in higher over the next 6 months.
This means watching long end rates and their potential drag on equities will be critical. We are not seeing this yet as the Russell is sitting at all time highs and capital continues to move into low quality factors.
Look where the long end is moving + the attribution analysis for the move.
→ Down growth risk
→ Up Inflation risk
+ look what the 2s10s & the 10s30 are pricing and how these changes in the curve connect to the current yield curve regimes.
You can get the Trading view Skript 100% free here
Digital Credit: Yields, Spreads & Regime
TN Preferreds is a yield-centric dashboard for bitcoin backed preferreds that overlays effective yields. It builds credit/benchmark spread series, a simple regime model (Risk-On / Cautious / Risk-Off), and a compact table that surfaces price, yield, target, upside and diagnostics—so you can quickly judge relative value and risk conditions.
What it does:
Plots effective yields for STRF/STRC/STRK/STRD (+ CNLTN toggle).
Pulls IG (FRED:BAMLC0A0CMEY), HY (FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY) and US10Y as references.
Computes Credit Spreads vs US10Y and Benchmark Spreads (F−IG, C−IG, K−IG−1%, D−HY) with EMAs/SMA for context.
STRC monthly rate input: set 12 monthly percentages; the current month auto-applies to compute the dividend.
Targets & upside: yield-parity targets for each series + % move to target
Leader logic: picks the series with the strongest SMA-based spread improvement and estimates a leader target price.
Risk regime: EMA-based deltas across spreads define Risk-On / Cautious / Risk-Off; optional background + last-bar label.
Table view (bottom-right): price, eff. yield, target, upside, CS, BS, BS-EMA, BS-Diff, leader stats, regime deltas.
Notes:
Designed for overlay on any chart (format = percent, right scale). Works best with a yield based basis like US10Y
• FRED series must be available on your TradingView plan/region.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Always validate assumptions (dividends, conversion terms, required spreads).
Institutional DMAs (50/100/200) – with AlertsTitle
D1 DMAs (50/100/200) – Alerts for Trend & Trend Stoppers
Summary
Plots the 50/100/200-day moving averages (DMAs) strictly from the Daily (D1) timeframe and projects them onto any chart timeframe. Comes with a focused alert engine for price↔DMA crosses and DMA↔DMA crosses (Golden/Death Cross). Designed to identify trend direction, potential regime shifts, and “trend stoppers” (dynamic S/R).
What it does
– Computes the 50/100/200 DMAs on D1 only (no matter your chart timeframe)
– Alerts for:
1. Price crossing D1 50/100/200 DMAs
2. DMA crossovers between 50/100/200 (D1-confirmed Golden/Death Cross)
– Optional “close-only” confirmation to reduce noise on price↔DMA alerts
Why DMAs (and why D1)?
DMAs (Daily SMAs) are widely tracked by institutional players—banks, hedge funds, CTAs, pensions—as trend filters and dynamic support/resistance.
– 50 DMA: short-term momentum bias
– 100 DMA: medium-term trend anchor/mean
– 200 DMA: long-term regime line (above = bullish, below = bearish)
Crossover events (e.g., 50>200 Golden Cross, 50<200 Death Cross) are often read as regime changes. D1 confirmation aligns with how institutions evaluate trends and filters intraday noise.
How it helps your trading
– Trend detection: Price above 200 DMA with 50>100>200 = healthy uptrend stacking
– Trend stoppers: Strong reactions at 100/200 DMA often precede pullbacks, pauses, or reversals
– Intraday timing: See D1 levels on lower TFs to plan entries/exits at “big picture” lines
Alerts (selection)
– Price crosses ABOVE/BELOW D1 50 DMA
– Price crosses ABOVE/BELOW D1 100 DMA
– Price crosses ABOVE/BELOW D1 200 DMA
– D1 50 crosses ABOVE/BELOW D1 100
– D1 50 crosses ABOVE/BELOW D1 200
– D1 100 crosses ABOVE/BELOW D1 200
Note: DMA↔DMA alerts are confirmed on the Daily close (fewer false signals).
How to set alerts
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. Click “Alert” → “+”
3. Condition = this indicator → choose the desired alert line (e.g., “Price crosses ABOVE D1 200 DMA”)
4. Customize message/webhook if needed → Create
Settings
– Colors: 50 = Yellow, 100 = Green, 200 = Red (editable)
– Line width
– “Only alert on bar close” for price↔DMA (recommended for robustness)
– Enable/disable price-cross alerts
– Enable/disable DMA-cross alerts (D1-confirmed)
Best practices
– Trend follow: Favor longs when price is above the 200 DMA; favor shorts below
– Pullback entries: Watch 50/100 DMAs for reactions; add structure/volume confluence
– Regime filter: Use Golden/Death Cross alerts as a high-level bias, refine entries on lower TF signals
Technical notes
– Uses lookahead_off (no future leak)
– DMA cross logic computed and confirmed on D1
– Price↔DMA logic runs on your active timeframe with optional close confirmation
Keywords
DMA, Daily SMA, 50 100 200 MA, Golden Cross, Death Cross, Trend Filter, Dynamic Support Resistance, Institutional Levels, Regime Change, Alert Signals, Intraday with Daily Bias, Hedge Funds, Banks
Global M2 Overlay 5 DaysTrading + Offset -AlexBank🌍 This indicator visualizes the Global M2 Money Supply — a combined estimate of the total liquid money circulating in major economies worldwide — directly overlaid on your active chart (for example, XAU/USD).
It allows traders to see how global liquidity evolves in relation to asset prices such as gold, Bitcoin, or equities.
In simple terms, M2 reflects how much liquid capital exists in the global financial system.
When M2 expands, liquidity increases — which can fuel asset price growth.
When M2 contracts, liquidity tightens — often signaling risk-off periods or deflationary pressures.
⚙️ This indicator aggregates national M2 data from multiple economies (United States, Eurozone, China, Japan, UK, etc.), converted to USD equivalents via live FX rates, giving a global view of liquidity trends.
Indicator Features
🧭 Overlay on any chart — plots the global M2 line directly on top of your active asset (e.g. XAU/USD, BTC/USD), allowing direct visual comparison.
⏩ Day offset control — shift the M2 curve forward or backward in time (in real trading days) to test how global liquidity leads or lags asset prices.
Example: shifting +90 days means the M2 data appears 90 trading days later (not calendar days, since weekends are excluded).
📅 5-day trading week logic — automatically converts real days into trading days, ensuring accurate offsets that match market calendars.
📊 Optional moving average — smooths the M2 line to better visualize long-term liquidity trends.
🎚️ Manual scaling (optional) — adjust the height of the M2 curve to visually align it with your charted asset’s price range (does not affect data values).
💡 How to Use
1/ Apply the indicator to your preferred chart (e.g., Gold / XAUUSD).
2/ Adjust the time offset parameter to see how changes in global liquidity precede or follow price movements.
3/ Use on DAILY TimeFrame for clear visibility
Enjoy !
Delta Pro VOLUME DELTA – FULL BREAKDOWN
WHAT IS DELTA?
→ Net difference between aggressive BUYING and SELLING per bar
→ Shows WHO is in control: buyers (ask hits) or sellers (bid hits)
CALCULATION (IN SCRIPT):
delta = volume * (close > open ? +1 : close < open ? -1 : 0)
• GREEN BAR (Up candle) → +DELTA → Buyers hit the ASK
• RED BAR (Down candle) → -DELTA → Sellers hit the BID
• DOJIS → 0 Delta
WHAT YOU SEE ON CHART:
• GREEN/RED BARS → Per-bar Delta (size = aggression)
• PURPLE LINE → Cumulative Delta (net order flow all session)
• ZERO LINE → Baseline (above = net buying, below = net selling)
TRADING EDGE (3 KILLER SETUPS):
1. DIVERGENCE = REVERSAL
Price: New high
Delta: Lower high → NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE
→ SHORT the breakdown
2. DELTA EXPLOSION = BREAKOUT
+500k green bar + price breaks resistance
→ GO LONG with momentum
3. ABSORPTION = FADE
Price drops hard
Delta flat/rising → Buyers absorbing supply
FDT Pro FDT Pro – The all-in-one futures trading kit used by serious traders.
INSTITUTIONAL TOOLS, RETAIL PRICE: $0
• Daily VWAP + Standard Deviation Bands (±1, ±2 SD)
• 9 & 20 EMA – Fast & slow trend confirmation
• Daily Volume Profile – POC, VAH, VAL (70% Value Area)
• Volume Delta – Real-time buying vs selling pressure
• Cumulative Delta – Net order flow tracking
• Auto-reset every session (RTH/ETH compatible)
• Zero runtime errors – mobile & desktop tested
• Pine Script v6 – future-proof
WORKS ON:
✓ /ES, /NQ, /CL, /GC, /SI, /BTC, /ETH
✓ 1m to 1D timeframes
✓ Scalping, day trading, swing trading
HOW TO USE:
1. Add to chart
2. Save as Template → "FDT Pro"
3. Apply to any futures contract in 1 click
NO PREMIUM. NO TRIAL. NO BS.
Built for traders who refuse to pay for edge.
FDT Pro – Because your P&L shouldn’t fund someone else’s indicator.
HOW IT WORKS
FDT Pro – TOOL LEGEND
YELLOW LINE → VWAP
Daily fair value. Price above = bullish bias.
ORANGE CIRCLES → ±1 SD
68% of price action. Mean reversion zones.
RED CIRCLES → ±2 SD
95% extremes. Breakout or reversal levels.
AQUA LINE → EMA 9
Fast momentum. Entry timing.
PINK LINE → EMA 20
Trend filter. Avoid counter-trend trades.
YELLOW THICK LINE → POC
Price of Control. Strongest support/resistance.
BLUE BOX → VALUE AREA (70%)
Where 70% of volume traded. "Fair price" zone.
LABEL (POC/VAH/VAL) → KEY LEVELS
POC = Control | VAH = Top of value | VAL = Bottom
GREEN/RED BARS → VOLUME DELTA
Green = buying pressure | Red = selling pressure
PURPLE LINE → CUMULATIVE DELTA
Net order flow. Divergence = reversal setup.
HOW TO TRADE:
• Buy dips to POC/VAL if delta turns green
• Short rallies to POC/VAH if delta turns red
• Break above VAH = long | Below VAL = short
• Use VWAP as dynamic stop or target
NO PREMIUM. NO ERRORS. NO LIMITS.
COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
HTF Supply & Demand Zones 📊 Overview
Advanced supply and demand zone indicator that automatically detects institutional-level price zones on higher timeframes and dynamically adapts zone colors based on price position. Zones below price act as demand (support) and zones above price act as supply (resistance).
✨ Key Features
🎯 Dynamic Zone Recognition
- Smart Color Adaptation: Zones automatically change from demand (green) to supply (red) when price crosses them
- Higher Timeframe Analysis: Detect zones from any timeframe while trading on lower timeframes
- Base/Blast Pattern Detection**: Identifies strong institutional zones using base-blast candle methodology
- Automatic Zone Flipping: Broken demand zones become supply and vice versa
📈 Zone Detection Method
Uses the proven Base & Blast candle pattern:
- Base Candle: Small consolidation candle with minimal wick
- Blast Candle: Strong momentum candle breaking from the base
- Customizable Ratio: Adjust base/blast body size ratio (default 8:1)
- Wick Filter: Ensures clean base candles for higher probability zones
🎨 Visual Features
- Clean Zone Boxes: Extended zones with customizable colors and transparency
- Smart Labels: Display zone type and touch count
- Touch Counter: Track how many times price has tested each zone
- Info Dashboard: Real-time statistics in top-right corner
⚙️ Zone Management
- Auto-Delete After X Touches**: Remove zones after specified number of tests (default: 5)
- Optional Break Deletion**: Choose whether to delete zones when price breaks through
- Maximum Zone Limit**: Control chart cleanliness by limiting displayed zones
- Extended Zones**: All zones extend to the right for forward visibility
🔧 Settings
Detection Parameters
- Higher Timeframe: Select any timeframe for zone detection (empty = current timeframe)
- Base/Blast Ratio: 4.0 to 30.0 (default: 8.0) - Higher = stronger zones, fewer signals
- Wick Threshold: 0.1 to 0.5 (default: 0.3) - Maximum base candle wick size
Display Options
- Toggle demand/supply zones independently
- Maximum zones to display (1-50)
- Show/hide zone labels
- Customizable colors for demand and supply zones
- Adjustable border width
Zone Management
- Delete after X touches (1-30 touches)
- Delete on break option
- Touch counter displays current/max touches
💡 How to Use
For Swing Trading
1. Set timeframe to Daily or Weekly
2. Use 8:1 ratio for high-quality zones
3. Enable auto-delete after 3-5 touches
4. Trade pullbacks to green zones (demand) for longs
5. Trade rallies to red zones (supply) for shorts
For Day Trading
1. Set timeframe to 1H or 4H
2. Use 6:1 ratio for more zones
3. Watch for zone color changes as confirmation
4. Enter when price retests zones in the direction of the higher timeframe trend
For Scalping
1. Set timeframe to 15m or 1H
2. Use 5:1 ratio for frequent signals
3. Focus on first touch of fresh zones
4. Use lower timeframes for precise entries
📋 Best Practices
✅ DO:
- Use zones from higher timeframes for better reliability
- Wait for zone color change as confirmation of flip
- Focus on first 2-3 touches of a zone
- Combine with trend analysis
- Use zones as targets and entry levels
❌ DON'T:
- Trade every zone - quality over quantity
- Ignore the touch counter
- Use on very low timeframes without HTF context
- Trade zones that have been tested many times
🎓 Understanding Dynamic Colors
Green Zones (Demand) = Below current price = Support = Look for bounces
Red Zones (Supply) = Above current price = Resistance = Look for rejections
When price breaks a green zone downward, it flips to red (former support becomes resistance)
When price breaks a red zone upward, it flips to green (former resistance becomes support)
📊 Info Dashboard
The top-right table displays:
- Active timeframe
- Current demand zones count (below price)
- Current supply zones count (above price)
- Active base/blast ratio
- Maximum touches setting
🔔 Trading Signals
High Probability Setups:
- Fresh zones (0-1 touches) on higher timeframes
- Zones that align with major support/resistance
- First test after a zone color flip
- Multiple timeframe confluence
Avoid:
- Zones with 4+ touches
- Zones in choppy/ranging markets
- Counter-trend zones during strong momentum
⚡ Performance Notes
- Maximum 500 boxes and lines supported
- Optimized for real-time scanning
- Minimal resource usage
- No repainting - all zones are confirmed
🎯 Recommended Settings by Trading Style
Conservative (Higher Quality)
- Ratio: 10:1
- Wick Threshold: 0.2
- Delete After: 3 touches
Balanced (Default)
- Ratio: 8:1
- Wick Threshold: 0.3
- Delete After: 5 touches
Aggressive (More Signals)
- Ratio: 6:1
- Wick Threshold: 0.4
- Delete After: 7 touches
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📖 Additional Resources
For more information on supply and demand trading:
- Study institutional order flow
- Learn base and blast candle patterns
- Understand market structure and liquidity zones
- Practice on demo before live trading
Risk Warning: This indicator is a tool for technical analysis. Always use proper risk management and combine with your trading strategy. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Compatible with all markets: Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Futures, and Indices
Version: 1.0 | Language: Pine Script v5
10Y–2Y Treasury Yield Curve Spread & MES % Change📝 Description:
This indicator tracks the U.S. 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury yield spread — a powerful macroeconomic signal often used by professional traders to gauge market sentiment and recession risk — and overlays an optional MES % change line to help intraday futures traders spot macro–price divergences in real time.
Features:
🏦 Plots the 10Y–2Y spread, with optional EMA smoothing.
📉 Highlights yield curve inversion (background turns red when spread < 0).
📊 Optional MES % change line from daily or RTH open for directional bias.
🔔 Alert conditions for:
Yield curve inversion / un-inversion.
Sudden spread spikes in basis points (customizable).
🧮 Optional correlation plot to visualize relationship strength between MES and the yield curve.
🧭 Z-score normalization allows both series to be viewed in one pane without scaling issues.
Why it matters:
A falling or inverted 2s10s spread often signals risk-off behavior and pressure on equities.
A steepening curve tends to support risk-on rallies.
Divergences between MES price action and the spread can provide early warning signals of reversals or fakeouts.
Best used with:
MES (MES1!) or MYM charts for intraday & swing bias.
Fed event days, CPI/NFP, or any macro-sensitive sessions.
VWAP or structure-based intraday trading strategies.
⚠️ Note: This indicator is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always combine macro context with your own trade plan and risk management.
