[codapro] Projection Bands

Description

[codapro] Projection Bands is a visual forecasting tool designed to help traders anticipate potential breakouts and breakdowns before they occur.

Unlike traditional lagging overlays, this indicator uses forward slope estimation, pressure-adjusted volatility, and band expansion models to project likely price zones over time.

Whether you're momentum trading or watching for reversion signals, this system provides a powerful forward-looking edge.

Key Features

Forward Slope Logic using price regression and return-based momentum
Pressure Modeling Input (0–100) to simulate contrarian or trending environments
Volatility-Based Band Expansion using both return sigma and ATR
Live Re-Anchoring every 30 minutes for fresh projection pivots
Customizable Band Width Scaling (Square Root of Time vs Linear)
Optional Band Trail for historical projection reference
Buy/Sell Signals with directional logic, not reversals

Buy/Sell Signals

Sell: Price closes below the lower projection band

Buy: Price closes above the upper projection band

Signals trigger only on confirmed candle closes beyond the outer boundaries.

Default Settings (Optimized)
Setting Value
Projection Horizon 180 minutes
Bars Ahead (Forecast Span) 20 bars
Re-Anchor Interval 30 minutes
Projection Mode Momentum
Contrarian Weight 0.5
Momentum Weight 0.5
Band Width Scaling Linear
Return Volatility Multiplier 0.25
ATR Volatility Multiplier 1.0
Pressure Influence Multiplier 0.5
ATR Multiplier (Step Size) 1.0
Return Multiplier (Step Size) 1.0
Dummy Pressure 50

How It Works

This system blends multiple components into a forward projection engine:

Forward Slope Logic

The projected band centerline is based on:

A weighted regression of return-based momentum, and
A contrarian pressure adjustment using ATR or log-return volatility.

This hybrid model allows the bands to lean into or away from trend direction, unlike standard overlays that lag behind price.

Pressure Modeling

The Pressure input (0–100) modifies the projection behavior:
Low pressure (0–30): favors trend continuation
High pressure (70–100): favors contrarian pullback logic
Mid-range (around 50): balanced projection

Pressure affects both the forecast slope and volatility expansion.

Volatility Width Scaling

Band width expands over time using a combination of:

Return volatility (standard deviation of log returns)
ATR volatility for smoother baseline context

The band expansion can follow either:

Square Root of Time (for options-style risk scaling), or
Linear Growth (more aggressive for trending environments)

As volatility rises, the projected bands widen, reflecting an expanding range of possible future price movement.

How to Use It

Use for breakout anticipation or volatility modeling.
Watch for price closes outside the band boundaries as a signal for potential movement continuation.
Adjust pressure to simulate market regime: trend vs mean-reversion.
Customize bars ahead and re-anchor interval to match your timeframe.
Use alongside structure or volume tools for greater confluence.

Disclaimer

This tool was created using the CodaPro Pine Script indicator design engine — an architecture system for building visual signal overlays and automated alerts.

It is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always test thoroughly before applying to live market conditions.