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MacroCorrelation (Bitcoin Real Value)
Atualizado
The best minds in the financial world think about how to determine the real value of an asset.
I constantly say that it is necessary to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value. Let's see what is the difference between these two concepts.
Fundamental value
Imagine that we decided to grow and sell, for example, strawberries. For this, we purchased the necessary equipment, tools, fertilizers, seeds, and more. Let's say that we needed $ 3000 for this purpose.
To facilitate the task, in our calculation we will not take into account all types of possible costs (electricity cost, workers' wages, necessary tax deductions, etc.).
If we had to take a loan to meet the initial needs, for example, at 10% per annum , then each borrowed $ 1000 in a year would cost us $ 1100. That is, $ 3000 would cost us $ 3300 per year.
Let's agree that our initial funds were completely enough to buy everything we needed, and we didn't need to take out a loan at a certain percentage. In this case, we exclude from the calculation the cost of the capital required to start your own business.
Suppose we managed to harvest 100 kg of strawberries. This means that the real value (fundamental value) of 1 kg of our strawberries is $ 30.
Market price
Things are a little different with the market price. The market price is determined by the volume of supply and demand for a particular product or service at a particular point in time.
By demand, we mean the intention to purchase a product or service (secured by the ability to pay a set price for it). A need that exceeds solvency is not a demand.
By offer, we mean the willingness to provide ownership (use) of the object of demand for a certain fee.
Simply put, the market price is the price at which the buyer is willing to buy (and the seller to sell) the volume of goods we need.
In our case, the price at which we sell 1 kg of our strawberries will depend on how much people really need our strawberries.
If we are the only sellers of strawberries in a certain territory and, at the same time, buyers really want to taste fresh strawberries, its market price can be as high as the last buyer is able to pay. If not, everything will depend on how high quality our product will be for its price. At the same time, the price constantly varies over a certain period of time ( seasonality and other factors). For example, if in winter we could sell 1 kg of our strawberries for $ 90, then in summer for $ 50. Strawberry prices range from $ 50 to $ 90.
Magic formula
We now understand what is the difference between fundamental value and market price. If the first is made up exclusively of a set of real metrics, the second is a variable factor that depends primarily on “human factors” (what is the maximum price the buyer is willing to pay, what is the minimum price the seller is willing to set at a particular moment in time).
You should try to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value.
However, how can you independently determine the fundamental value of an asset?
Unfortunately, there is no universal answer to this question, just as there is no universal “magic formula” in nature (my sincere respect, Joel Greenblatt) that could determine the fundamental value of any asset on the planet. The point is precisely in the criterion of universality. If we consider each asset (or at least the market) separately, we can well determine its fundamental value.
Even those things that seem free to us in everyday life (just their cost are negligible) have a fundamental value.
Three factors to assess the fundamental value of Bitcoin
Let's try to take a separate asset, for example Bitcoin , and do with it everything that we did earlier with our “strawberry business”.
When assessing the real (fundamental) value of Bitcoin , we will take into account 3 main factors.
1. The maximum possible and current supply in the Bitcoin market
The reward for mining a Bitcoin block is halved every 210,000 blocks. This fact is called halving (halving). When all blocks are mined, the total amount of existing bitcoins will be 21 million coins.
Accordingly, the maximum supply in the Bitcoin network will not exceed 21 million coins.
In reality, things are even better, since this volume also includes a certain amount of lost coins. By lost, we mean all those coins whose “private keys” the last owner no longer has access to. For example, at the time of the appearance of Bitcoin in 2009, its real value was doubtful and not obvious to most of its owners, many of whom did not pay due attention to understanding the safe storage of an asset, periodically losing access to hundreds and thousands of coins.
As a result, we understand that the total supply in the Bitcoin market will be significantly less than 21 million coins.
To evaluate the proposal, it is not enough to understand how much of the asset exists, because a certain amount of it, as we have already understood, can either be lost or be blocked for a long time. It is also important to take into account the criterion of “supply in time”. That is, the current total “liquidity” of the network.
2. Bitcoin network hashrate
The main indicator of the viability and stability of the Bitcoin network is the hash rate (computing power). Stable hashrate = network security.
3. The real value of the US dollar
When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar .
It is believed that assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile (the price can change over a wide range within a relatively short period of time). At the same time, to reduce volatility , experts advise using the so-called “currency baskets”.
A currency basket is a certain percentage of foreign currencies in which the investor's capital can be distributed. The ratio of currency units in the basket is used to reduce the potential risk of currency fluctuations.
The main problem is that, due to inflation , the purchasing power of the currencies themselves drops significantly over time.
With the $ 100 we earned in 1913, already in the 1920s we could have purchased 50% fewer goods and services than before. In the 1980s, it was 90% less, and in the 2010s it was already 98% less.
This fact must also be taken into account when assessing the real value of Bitcoin , since everything is relative, and in the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, we determine the value of Bitcoin , expressed in US dollars.
The real value of Bitcoin
After assessing the relationship of the factors described above and drawing up a mathematical formula, we can proceed to the analysis of the results. In order to cut off unnecessary noise when constructing the function, we will use the graph for 1 month.
Analyzing the resulting chart, first of all, the following is striking: the fundamental value of Bitcoin grows over time. This is due to the gradual expansion of the "user base" of the network, as well as the growth of its popularity among investors of completely different classes.
I propose to compare the graph obtained earlier with the graph of Internet users (in% of the number of adult US citizens ). Similar, don't they?
The more the number of Internet users, the higher its influence and economic potential. The more the number of users of the Bitcoin network, the higher its economic potential and fundamental value.
However, understanding the fundamental value alone is not enough. We, as investors, first of all need to understand when to buy any asset.
To do this, compare the chart of the market price of Bitcoin with the chart of its fundamental value obtained earlier.
Now that we have a complete picture of what is happening and understand both the fundamental value of the asset and its market price, the fact of the numerical prevalence of the price over the fundamental value for 116 out of 133 months becomes quite clear. Periods of Bitcoin being below its fundamental value are extremely rare and only take ~ 13% of the trading time.
For about 87% of all trading time, Bitcoin's market price is above its fundamental value. Those rare periods when traders are willing to sell bitcoin below its fundamental value are an incredible gift for a long-term investor.
Bull and Bear Markets
If you buy Bitcoin (like any other asset) below its fundamental value, this is an absolutely incredible idea in terms of potential profitability, who in their right mind would sell their assets below this mark ?!
It's all about the emotionality of people. Saying “I will not do stupid things when the time is right” is easier than actually maintaining composure. Especially when it comes to money. Your money. And sometimes even dreams.
The classical market theory usually divides the market into two main phases: A bull market is a period of time during which the price rises systematically (accordingly, the demands and expectations of traders gradually grow). A bear market is a period of time during which the price gradually falls (accordingly, traders' requests and expectations gradually fall).
There is also the concept of “correction”: A correction is a temporary change in the price of an asset, contrary to the main trend.
For the current day, there is not a single clear criterion that separates the concept of a bear / bull market from the concept of a correction. However, we can say with confidence that the market change (from bullish to bearish or from bearish to bullish ) is interconnected with the fundamental factors of the market. Corrections, on the other hand, have significantly less connection with fundamental indicators.
and are rather related to the “physiology of the market” (nothing can only rise in price every unit of time for a significantly long time, nothing can only fall in price every unit of time for a significantly long time).
In this case, the most rational would be to define a bear market as a delay in updating the absolute historical highs of the price with a preliminary touch of the fundamental value.
Buying below the fundamental value is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental value, since, in most cases, it is the touch of the fundamental value that globally separates a bear and a bull market.
Fun fact: If we were to buy Bitcoin every time it touched the fundamental value, the average buy price as of July 2021 would be $ 1,506.65, which is 87% less than the current fundamental value of Bitcoin .
Conclusions
1. The total amount of Bitcoins , as well as the speed of their production (mining) over time, are programmatically limited, which limits the volume of the maximum possible supply
2. Bitcoin is transported, which means that the volume of supply for the current minute will also depend on the actual volume of assets available for sale
3. The viability of the network is based on the amount of computer power supporting it (network hash rate)
4. When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar
5. Price ≠ fundamental value
6. Buying below the fundamental is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental.
7. Don't believe the headlines of financial news and the public words of financiers
8. Selling strawberries can make a fortune too
I constantly say that it is necessary to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value. Let's see what is the difference between these two concepts.
Fundamental value
Imagine that we decided to grow and sell, for example, strawberries. For this, we purchased the necessary equipment, tools, fertilizers, seeds, and more. Let's say that we needed $ 3000 for this purpose.
To facilitate the task, in our calculation we will not take into account all types of possible costs (electricity cost, workers' wages, necessary tax deductions, etc.).
If we had to take a loan to meet the initial needs, for example, at 10% per annum , then each borrowed $ 1000 in a year would cost us $ 1100. That is, $ 3000 would cost us $ 3300 per year.
Let's agree that our initial funds were completely enough to buy everything we needed, and we didn't need to take out a loan at a certain percentage. In this case, we exclude from the calculation the cost of the capital required to start your own business.
Suppose we managed to harvest 100 kg of strawberries. This means that the real value (fundamental value) of 1 kg of our strawberries is $ 30.
Market price
Things are a little different with the market price. The market price is determined by the volume of supply and demand for a particular product or service at a particular point in time.
By demand, we mean the intention to purchase a product or service (secured by the ability to pay a set price for it). A need that exceeds solvency is not a demand.
By offer, we mean the willingness to provide ownership (use) of the object of demand for a certain fee.
Simply put, the market price is the price at which the buyer is willing to buy (and the seller to sell) the volume of goods we need.
In our case, the price at which we sell 1 kg of our strawberries will depend on how much people really need our strawberries.
If we are the only sellers of strawberries in a certain territory and, at the same time, buyers really want to taste fresh strawberries, its market price can be as high as the last buyer is able to pay. If not, everything will depend on how high quality our product will be for its price. At the same time, the price constantly varies over a certain period of time ( seasonality and other factors). For example, if in winter we could sell 1 kg of our strawberries for $ 90, then in summer for $ 50. Strawberry prices range from $ 50 to $ 90.
Magic formula
We now understand what is the difference between fundamental value and market price. If the first is made up exclusively of a set of real metrics, the second is a variable factor that depends primarily on “human factors” (what is the maximum price the buyer is willing to pay, what is the minimum price the seller is willing to set at a particular moment in time).
You should try to buy an asset only at the moment when its market price is below or equal to its fundamental value.
However, how can you independently determine the fundamental value of an asset?
Unfortunately, there is no universal answer to this question, just as there is no universal “magic formula” in nature (my sincere respect, Joel Greenblatt) that could determine the fundamental value of any asset on the planet. The point is precisely in the criterion of universality. If we consider each asset (or at least the market) separately, we can well determine its fundamental value.
Even those things that seem free to us in everyday life (just their cost are negligible) have a fundamental value.
Three factors to assess the fundamental value of Bitcoin
Let's try to take a separate asset, for example Bitcoin , and do with it everything that we did earlier with our “strawberry business”.
When assessing the real (fundamental) value of Bitcoin , we will take into account 3 main factors.
1. The maximum possible and current supply in the Bitcoin market
The reward for mining a Bitcoin block is halved every 210,000 blocks. This fact is called halving (halving). When all blocks are mined, the total amount of existing bitcoins will be 21 million coins.
Accordingly, the maximum supply in the Bitcoin network will not exceed 21 million coins.
In reality, things are even better, since this volume also includes a certain amount of lost coins. By lost, we mean all those coins whose “private keys” the last owner no longer has access to. For example, at the time of the appearance of Bitcoin in 2009, its real value was doubtful and not obvious to most of its owners, many of whom did not pay due attention to understanding the safe storage of an asset, periodically losing access to hundreds and thousands of coins.
As a result, we understand that the total supply in the Bitcoin market will be significantly less than 21 million coins.
To evaluate the proposal, it is not enough to understand how much of the asset exists, because a certain amount of it, as we have already understood, can either be lost or be blocked for a long time. It is also important to take into account the criterion of “supply in time”. That is, the current total “liquidity” of the network.
2. Bitcoin network hashrate
The main indicator of the viability and stability of the Bitcoin network is the hash rate (computing power). Stable hashrate = network security.
3. The real value of the US dollar
When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar .
It is believed that assets such as stocks or cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile (the price can change over a wide range within a relatively short period of time). At the same time, to reduce volatility , experts advise using the so-called “currency baskets”.
A currency basket is a certain percentage of foreign currencies in which the investor's capital can be distributed. The ratio of currency units in the basket is used to reduce the potential risk of currency fluctuations.
The main problem is that, due to inflation , the purchasing power of the currencies themselves drops significantly over time.
With the $ 100 we earned in 1913, already in the 1920s we could have purchased 50% fewer goods and services than before. In the 1980s, it was 90% less, and in the 2010s it was already 98% less.
This fact must also be taken into account when assessing the real value of Bitcoin , since everything is relative, and in the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, we determine the value of Bitcoin , expressed in US dollars.
The real value of Bitcoin
After assessing the relationship of the factors described above and drawing up a mathematical formula, we can proceed to the analysis of the results. In order to cut off unnecessary noise when constructing the function, we will use the graph for 1 month.
Analyzing the resulting chart, first of all, the following is striking: the fundamental value of Bitcoin grows over time. This is due to the gradual expansion of the "user base" of the network, as well as the growth of its popularity among investors of completely different classes.
I propose to compare the graph obtained earlier with the graph of Internet users (in% of the number of adult US citizens ). Similar, don't they?
The more the number of Internet users, the higher its influence and economic potential. The more the number of users of the Bitcoin network, the higher its economic potential and fundamental value.
However, understanding the fundamental value alone is not enough. We, as investors, first of all need to understand when to buy any asset.
To do this, compare the chart of the market price of Bitcoin with the chart of its fundamental value obtained earlier.
Now that we have a complete picture of what is happening and understand both the fundamental value of the asset and its market price, the fact of the numerical prevalence of the price over the fundamental value for 116 out of 133 months becomes quite clear. Periods of Bitcoin being below its fundamental value are extremely rare and only take ~ 13% of the trading time.
For about 87% of all trading time, Bitcoin's market price is above its fundamental value. Those rare periods when traders are willing to sell bitcoin below its fundamental value are an incredible gift for a long-term investor.
Bull and Bear Markets
If you buy Bitcoin (like any other asset) below its fundamental value, this is an absolutely incredible idea in terms of potential profitability, who in their right mind would sell their assets below this mark ?!
It's all about the emotionality of people. Saying “I will not do stupid things when the time is right” is easier than actually maintaining composure. Especially when it comes to money. Your money. And sometimes even dreams.
The classical market theory usually divides the market into two main phases: A bull market is a period of time during which the price rises systematically (accordingly, the demands and expectations of traders gradually grow). A bear market is a period of time during which the price gradually falls (accordingly, traders' requests and expectations gradually fall).
There is also the concept of “correction”: A correction is a temporary change in the price of an asset, contrary to the main trend.
For the current day, there is not a single clear criterion that separates the concept of a bear / bull market from the concept of a correction. However, we can say with confidence that the market change (from bullish to bearish or from bearish to bullish ) is interconnected with the fundamental factors of the market. Corrections, on the other hand, have significantly less connection with fundamental indicators.
and are rather related to the “physiology of the market” (nothing can only rise in price every unit of time for a significantly long time, nothing can only fall in price every unit of time for a significantly long time).
In this case, the most rational would be to define a bear market as a delay in updating the absolute historical highs of the price with a preliminary touch of the fundamental value.
Buying below the fundamental value is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental value, since, in most cases, it is the touch of the fundamental value that globally separates a bear and a bull market.
Fun fact: If we were to buy Bitcoin every time it touched the fundamental value, the average buy price as of July 2021 would be $ 1,506.65, which is 87% less than the current fundamental value of Bitcoin .
Conclusions
1. The total amount of Bitcoins , as well as the speed of their production (mining) over time, are programmatically limited, which limits the volume of the maximum possible supply
2. Bitcoin is transported, which means that the volume of supply for the current minute will also depend on the actual volume of assets available for sale
3. The viability of the network is based on the amount of computer power supporting it (network hash rate)
4. When analyzing the Bitcoin / Dollar pair, in addition to the real value of Bitcoin , it is also necessary to take into account the real value of the US Dollar
5. Price ≠ fundamental value
6. Buying below the fundamental is always a smarter idea than buying above the fundamental.
7. Don't believe the headlines of financial news and the public words of financiers
8. Selling strawberries can make a fortune too
Notas de Lançamento
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Learn more about indicators: telegra.ph/MacroCorrelation-11-21
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