GUSI

GUSI Free — Adaptive Bitcoin Cycle Risk (0–100)

What it does
GUSI Free converts multiple cycle-relevant metrics into a single 0–100 risk score for Bitcoin. Instead of static thresholds (which tend to degrade across cycles), GUSI uses cycle-aware, time-varying trigger levels and long-horizon normalization to keep signals meaningful as the market matures. The panel shows the composite line plus actionable trigger levels that highlight overheated vs. deep-value conditions.

What’s new vs. typical versions

Decreasing/Sloped trigger functions: Each metric is evaluated against non-horizontal, time-adjusted thresholds so that tops don’t rely on fixed numbers that become obsolete as adoption and liquidity evolve.

Long-term normalization: Outlier-resistant smoothing and z-score style lookbacks reduce distortion from short, violent swings.

Composite risk mapping: Modernized component signals are transformed to a unit scale and merged into one interpretable 0–100 metric—clearer to read, harder to misread.

How the model is built (proprietary, modernized components)
Each element below is a modified version of a familiar idea, adapted for cycle drift and volatility profile changes:

Logarithmic MACD (LMACD): Computed in log-return space with Ehlers-style smoothing, evaluated against down-sloping top and up-tilting bottom bands.

MVRV-Z (regression-guided): Market-to-realized premium mapped to cycle-aware upper/lower bands that decline/rise over time rather than sit flat.

NUPL / NUPL-Z blend: Tops assessed with a declining NUPL threshold, bottoms with dynamic z-score normalization, then fused to a single risk contribution.

Puell Multiple (log-decay): Issuance revenue multiple measured against log-decaying top and gently rising bottom references.

Weekly RSI (bottom context): A weekly momentum filter contributes only to downside risk context to avoid double-counting tops.

Risk-metric construction (0–100)

Each component is scaled between its cycle-aware bottom and top reference, producing a bounded unit risk.

Internally weighted components are combined into one composite, then scaled to 0–100.

The panel overlays trigger levels commonly used by GUSI users:

Around 97 → historically consistent with top-risk environments.

Around 2.5 → historically consistent with deep accumulation conditions.

Background highlights and labels make these zones explicit, so the chart conveys state (distribution/accumulation) at a glance.

Intended chart context
Use on INDEX:BTCUSD, 1D timeframe for the designed behavior.

Scope & realism
This is an analytical risk model, not a promise of returns. Historical alignment with cycle extremes does not guarantee future outcomes. Always combine with independent risk management and confirm on-chain/data availability.