Bitcoin Polynomial Regression Model💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here .
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Ciclos
Bias TableOverview
The Bias Table Indicator is a multi-timeframe analysis tool designed to provide a quick sentiment overview across multiple timeframes. It combines signals from Moving Averages (MAs) and Oscillators to determine market bias, helping traders make more informed decisions.
Key Features
✔ Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTF) – Displays market bias across up to five timeframes.
✔ Customizable Signals – Choose whether bias is based on Moving Averages (MAs), Oscillators, or a combination of both.
✔ Visual Table Format – The indicator presents the bias as a color-coded table in the bottom-right corner of the chart for quick reference.
✔ Adjustable Colors & Display Settings – Users can customize colors for different sentiment states (Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell, Strong Sell).
How It Works
Bias Calculation: The indicator evaluates market conditions using preset values (which can be replaced with actual logic) to determine sentiment for each timeframe.
Multi-Timeframe Support: The table can display bias from hourly to monthly timeframes, giving traders a broader view of market conditions.
Customizable Signals: Users can filter the table to show bias based only on MAs, Oscillators, or a combination of both.
Interpreting the Table
📊 Timeframes: The leftmost column shows selected timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, 1D, 1W, 1M).
📈 Signal Columns:
MAs – Bias based on Moving Averages.
Oscillators – Bias based on momentum indicators like RSI, Stochastics, etc.
All – A combined bias based on both MAs & Oscillators.
🚦 Color-Coded Ratings:
🔵 Strong Buy – High bullish strength.
🔹 Buy – Moderate bullish sentiment.
⚪ Neutral – No clear trend.
🔸 Sell – Moderate bearish sentiment.
🔴 Strong Sell – High bearish strength.
Best Used For:
📈 Trend Confirmation: Validate signals from your primary strategy.
⏳ Multi-Timeframe Analysis: See whether short-term and long-term trends align.
⚡ Quick Sentiment Check: Get a high-level view of market conditions without analyzing multiple indicators separately.
Customization Options:
Select which timeframes to include in the table.
Choose whether to base bias on MAs, Oscillators, or both.
Adjust colors for each signal type.
Elliptic bands
Why Elliptic?
Unlike traditional indicators (e.g., Bollinger Bands with constant standard deviation multiples), the elliptic model introduces a cyclical, non-linear variation in band width. This reflects the idea that price movements often follow rhythmic patterns, widening and narrowing in a predictable yet dynamic way, akin to natural market cycles.
Buy: When the price enters from below (green triangle).
Sell: When the price enters from above (red triangle).
Inputs
MA Length: 50 (This is the period for the central Simple Moving Average (SMA).)
Cycle Period: 50 (This is the elliptic cycle length.)
Volatility Multiplier: 2.0 (This value scales the band width.)
Mathematical Foundation
The indicator is based on the ellipse equation. The basic formula is:
Ellipse Equation:
(x^2) / (a^2) + (y^2) / (b^2) = 1
Solving for y:
y = b * sqrt(1 - (x^2) / (a^2))
Parameters Explained:
a: Set to 1 (normalized).
x: Varies from -1 to 1 over the period.
b: Calculated as:
ta.stdev(close, MA Length) * Volatility Multiplier
(This represents the standard deviation of the close prices over the MA period, scaled by the volatility multiplier.)
y (offset): Represents the band distance from the moving average, forming the elliptic cycle.
Behavior
Bands:
The bands are narrow at the cycle edges (when the offset is 0) and become widest at the midpoint (when the offset equals b).
Trend:
The central moving average (MA) shows the overall trend direction, while the bands adjust according to the volatility.
Signals:
Standard buy and sell signals are generated when the price interacts with the bands.
Practical Use
Trend Identification:
If the price is above the MA, it indicates an uptrend; if below, a downtrend.
Support and Resistance:
The elliptic bands act as dynamic support and resistance levels.
Narrowing bands may signal potential trend reversals.
Breakouts:
SMA Crossover Strategy//@version=5
indicator("SMA Crossover Strategy", overlay = true)
// SMA Indicators
sma50 = ta.sma(close, 50)
sma200 = ta.sma(close, 200)
// Buy & Sell Conditions
buyCondition = ta.crossover(sma50, sma200) // BUY Signal
sellCondition = ta.crossunder(sma50, sma200) // SELL Signal
// Plotting SMA Lines
plot(sma50, color = color.green, linewidth = 2, title = "SMA 50")
plot(sma200, color = color.red, linewidth = 2, title = "SMA 200")
// Entry & Exit Signals
plotshape(buyCondition, style = shape.labelup, location = location.belowbar, color = color.green, size = size.large, title = "BUY Signal")
plotshape(sellCondition, style = shape.labeldown, location = location.abovebar, color = color.red, size = size.large, title = "SELL Signal")
Enhanced Trading Strategy with MACD & Fibonacci//@version=6
indicator("Enhanced Trading Strategy with MACD & Fibonacci", overlay=true)
// User Inputs
lengthEMA = input.int(20, title="EMA Length")
stopATRMult = input.float(1.5, title="ATR Stop Multiplier")
takeProfitMult = input.float(2.0, title="Take Profit Multiplier")
atrLength = input.int(14, title="ATR Length")
rsiLength = input.int(14, title="RSI Length")
// MACD Inputs
macdShortLength = input.int(12, title="MACD Short Length")
macdLongLength = input.int(26, title="MACD Long Length")
macdSignalLength = input.int(9, title="MACD Signal Length")
// Calculate Indicators
ema = ta.ema(close, lengthEMA)
atr = ta.atr(atrLength)
rsi = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
// MACD Calculation
= ta.macd(close, macdShortLength, macdLongLength, macdSignalLength)
macdHist = macdLine - signalLine
// Fibonacci Retracement Levels
var float fibHigh = na
var float fibLow = na
// Find the recent high and low for Fibonacci
if (high == ta.highest(high, 50))
fibHigh := high
if (low == ta.lowest(low, 50))
fibLow := low
// Fibonacci levels
fibLevel_0 = fibLow
fibLevel_23_6 = fibLow + (fibHigh - fibLow) * 0.236
fibLevel_38_2 = fibLow + (fibHigh - fibLow) * 0.382
fibLevel_50 = fibLow + (fibHigh - fibLow) * 0.5
fibLevel_61_8 = fibLow + (fibHigh - fibLow) * 0.618
fibLevel_100 = fibHigh
// Define Trend Conditions
longSignal = ta.crossover(close, ema) and rsi > 50
shortSignal = ta.crossunder(close, ema) and rsi < 50
// Calculate Stop-Loss & Take-Profit Levels
longStop = close - (atr * stopATRMult)
shortStop = close + (atr * stopATRMult)
longTakeProfit = close + (atr * takeProfitMult)
shortTakeProfit = close - (atr * takeProfitMult)
// Plot Indicators
plot(ema, title="EMA", color=color.blue, linewidth=2)
// Plot Buy and Sell Signals as Triangles
plotshape(longSignal, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.triangleup, size=size.small, title="Buy Signal")
plotshape(shortSignal, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.triangledown, size=size.small, title="Sell Signal")
// Plot Stop-Loss Levels as Circles
plot(longSignal ? longStop : na, title="Long Stop", color=color.red, style=plot.style_circles, linewidth=2)
plot(shortSignal ? shortStop : na, title="Short Stop", color=color.green, style=plot.style_circles, linewidth=2)
// Plot Take-Profit Levels as Lines
plot(longSignal ? longTakeProfit : na, title="Long Take Profit", color=color.green, style=plot.style_line, linewidth=2)
plot(shortSignal ? shortTakeProfit : na, title="Short Take Profit", color=color.red, style=plot.style_line, linewidth=2)
// Plot Fibonacci Levels (on the chart)
plot(fibLevel_0, title="Fib 0%", color=color.gray, linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
plot(fibLevel_23_6, title="Fib 23.6%", color=color.purple, linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
plot(fibLevel_38_2, title="Fib 38.2%", color=color.blue, linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
plot(fibLevel_50, title="Fib 50%", color=color.orange, linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
plot(fibLevel_61_8, title="Fib 61.8%", color=color.red, linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
plot(fibLevel_100, title="Fib 100%", color=color.green, linewidth=1, style=plot.style_line)
// Plot MACD Histogram
plot(macdHist, title="MACD Histogram", color=color.blue, style=plot.style_histogram, linewidth=2)
// Plot MACD Line and Signal Line
plot(macdLine, title="MACD Line", color=color.green, linewidth=2)
plot(signalLine, title="Signal Line", color=color.red, linewidth=2)
// Alerts for Trading Signals
alertcondition(longSignal, title="Buy Alert", message="Buy Signal Triggered: Price above EMA and RSI > 50")
alertcondition(shortSignal, title="Sell Alert", message="Sell Signal Triggered: Price below EMA and RSI < 50")
// Background Highlighting for Buy/Sell Signals
bgcolor(longSignal ? color.new(color.green, 90) : na)
bgcolor(shortSignal ? color.new(color.red, 90) : na)
Secuencia de Toma de High y LowSecuencia de Toma de OHLC
Para destacar visualmente puntos estratégicos de tomas de decisiones en el grafico
Global M2 Money Supply // Days Offset =Global M2 Money Supply index. This script tracks global M2 money supply and allows you to forecast future moves based on changes in global liqudity.
RSI Level 50 StrategyThis strategy generates buy signals when the RSI crosses above the specified level (50) and the price is above the SMA (if the trend filter is enabled). It generates sell signals when the RSI crosses below the specified level (50) and the price is below the SMA (if the trend filter is enabled). The RSI and SMA are also plotted on the chart for visual analysis.
Indicador Melhorado de Compra e VendaIndicador Melhorado de Compra e Venda para Opções Binárias
Autor: Nelson Bertozzi
Este indicador foi desenvolvido especialmente para operações em opções binárias, utilizando a combinação das Médias Móveis Simples (SMA) e MACD para identificar os melhores pontos de entrada e saída no gráfico. A estratégia é focada em detectar tendências de curto prazo, ideais para operações de opções binárias, com sinais de compra e venda baseados na interação entre o MACD e a linha de sinal, além da posição do preço em relação à média móvel.
Características:
Média Móvel Simples (SMA): A SMA ajuda a identificar a direção da tendência de mercado. Quando o preço está acima da SMA, a tendência é de alta, e quando está abaixo, a tendência é de baixa.
MACD: O MACD é utilizado para detectar mudanças no momentum do mercado, oferecendo sinais mais rápidos e eficazes para opções binárias.
Sinais de Compra: Gerados quando o MACD faz um crossover da linha de sinal e o preço está acima da SMA, sugerindo uma oportunidade de compra (alta).
Sinais de Venda: Gerados quando o MACD faz um crossunder da linha de sinal e o preço está abaixo da SMA, sugerindo uma oportunidade de venda (baixa).
Histograma MACD: O histograma é utilizado para visualizar a diferença entre o MACD e a linha de sinal, ajudando a identificar rapidamente a força da tendência e o momento ideal para entrar na operação.
Este indicador é ideal para traders que desejam operar opções binárias com base em sinais claros e objetivos, ajudando a identificar entradas e saídas eficazes em curtos períodos de tempo.
Observação: Este indicador foi projetado para operações em opções binárias e deve ser utilizado em conjunto com uma boa estratégia de gerenciamento de risco. Sempre faça testes antes de operar ao vivo.
II Tech - UtilityII Tech - Utility Indicator
The II Tech - Utility is a powerful, multi-functional indicator designed for traders who want better insights into market structure and key price levels. It overlays essential price data on your charts, providing a clear view of custom timeframes, session highs/lows, and open/close prices.
🔹 Features:
✅ Custom Timeframe Levels – Plot open, high, low, and close prices from a user-defined timeframe for better trend analysis.
✅ Session Tracking – Highlight key trading sessions (New York, London, Asia, etc.) with customizable colors and styles.
✅ Midnight Open Price – Track the NY Midnight Open level, a critical reference point for price action traders.
✅ Customizable Visuals – Modify colors, line styles, and transparency to suit your trading style.
✅ Box & Deviation Zones – Display price ranges with optional deviation calculations for better risk management.
✅ Vertical & Horizontal Levels – Draw session separators, session mids, and key levels with precision.
This indicator is ideal for forex, stocks, and crypto traders looking to enhance their market structure analysis and trading execution. 🚀
👉 How to Use:
1. Adjust the Custom TF to overlay price levels from different timeframes.
2. Enable session highlights to track London, New York, and Asia trading hours.
3. Use NY Midnight Open as a reference for potential reversals or continuation setups.
4. Fine-tune the settings to match your strategy!
💡 Works best on intraday timeframes and can be combined with other confluence tools.
#Trading #Forex #MarketStructure #PriceAction #TradingView
ACCUMULATION DOT CombinéA simple indicator to accumulate some Polkadot, but works fine with any asset. GL!
Session Vertical Lines with LabelsDieser Indikator markiert den Beginn der verschiedenen Handelssitzungen in der Mitteleuropäischen Zeit (MEZ). Um 18:00 Uhr wird die letzte Linie des Tages gezogen, da zu diesem Zeitpunkt das Handelsvolumen typischerweise stark zurückgeht und die Marktaktivität für eine effiziente Handelsstrategie nicht mehr ausreicht. Die optimalen Handelszeiten für die Nutzung dieses Indikators liegen zwischen 08:00 Uhr und 18:00 Uhr (MEZ).
Session Open Lines with LabelsSessions open time marked by a vertical black line and session name at the bottom of the chart.
APU Market Cap Dominance vs Murad's PicksThis chart shows the total dominance of APU's Mcap, in relation to the meme coins as selected by Murad.
INI Foyda/ZararBu skript savdo strategiyalari uchun foyda va zararni hisoblash, stop loss va take profit liniyalarini chizish, va turli xil hisob-kitoblarni amalga oshirish uchun ishlatiladi. U foydalanuvchiga savdo jarayonida yordam berish va turli parametrlarni sozlash imkoniyatini beradi.
1 Hour Open vs Close Buy Strategy//@version=5
strategy("1 Hour Open vs Close Buy Strategy", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=100)
// Define the buy condition: current open is higher than the previous close
buyCondition = open > close and strategy.position_size == 0 // Only buy if there is no active position
// Execute the buy order and plot buy price
if (buyCondition)
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long)
label.new(x=bar_index, y=low, text="Buy at: " + str.tostring(open), style=label.style_label_up, color=color.green, size=size.normal, textcolor=color.white)
// Define the sell condition based on 3% profit target from the buy price
targetPrice = strategy.position_avg_price * 1.03
// Check if the current price has reached the target price and close the position
if (strategy.position_size > 0 and close >= targetPrice)
strategy.close("Buy")
label.new(x=bar_index, y=high, text="Sell at: " + str.tostring(close), style=label.style_label_down, color=color.red, size=size.normal, textcolor=color.white)
// Plotting to visualize entries and exits on the chart
plotshape(series=buyCondition, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, text="Buy")
plotshape(series=(strategy.position_size > 0 and close >= targetPrice), location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="Sell")
Custom Candle Coloringorange or fuscia candle color if 1.5x last 20 bars volume but closes in opposite direction of the trend
Estrategia Multifuncional v6simulen la estrategia y veran lo rentable que es es a base de accion de precio utiliza fibonnachi emas y no es molesto visualmente
