GUSI Basic

GUSI Basic — Adaptive Bitcoin Cycle Risk

What it does
GUSI Basic calculates a 0–100 risk score for Bitcoin cycles using a blend of adapted on-chain and market signals. Unlike traditional versions of NUPL, MVRV, or Puell Multiple that rely on static thresholds, GUSI introduces sloped trigger lines and long-term normalization techniques. This makes the logic responsive to Bitcoin’s structural changes over time, keeping signals relevant across multiple cycles.

Key features

Dynamic thresholds: Instead of fixed horizontal levels, each signal uses sloped functions that decrease or increase gradually, reflecting the evolving maturity of the Bitcoin market.

Noise reduction: Long-term smoothing and z-score normalization help filter out extreme volatility and short-term distortions.

Composite score: Multiple proprietary adaptations are merged into a single, intuitive risk scale that simplifies interpretation without oversimplifying the data.

Component transparency: Users can enable or disable individual elements to see how each contributes to the composite model.

Signals included

Logarithmic MACD with cycle-aware thresholds

MVRV-Z Regression with declining bands

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss with z-score normalization

Puell Multiple with logarithmic decay

Weekly RSI Momentum filter for cycle lows

How to use

Apply on INDEX:BTCUSD, 1D chart for the intended view.

Readings near 97 have historically aligned with overheated market conditions.

Readings near 2.5 have marked deep accumulation zones.

Labels and background colors provide direct visual cues for both accumulation and distribution phases.

Summary
GUSI Basic adapts classic on-chain metrics to today’s Bitcoin market. By replacing static thresholds with sloped functions and normalization, it provides a composite view that evolves with each cycle—offering traders a clearer, cycle-aware perspective.