BTC Macro Heatmap (Fed Cuts & Hikes)

há 8 horas

🔴 1. Red line – Fed Funds Rate (policy trend)

This line tells you what stage of the monetary cycle we’re in.

Rising red line = the Fed is hiking → liquidity is tightening → money leaves risk assets like BTC.

Flat = pause → markets start pricing in the next move (often sideways BTC).

Falling = easing / cutting → liquidity returns → bullish environment builds.

The rate of change matters more than the level. When the slope turns down, capital starts seeking yield again — BTC benefits first because it’s the most volatile asset.

💚 2. Dim green zones – detected cuts

These are data-based easing events pulled directly from FRED.

They show when the actual effective rate began moving down, not necessarily the exact meeting day.

Think of them as the Fed’s “foot off the brake” — that’s when risk markets begin responding.

🟩 3. Bright green lines – official FOMC cuts

These are the real policy shifts — the Fed formally changed direction.

After these appear, BTC historically transitions from accumulation → markup phase.

Look at 2020: the bright green lines came right before BTC’s full reversal.
You’re seeing the same thing now with the 2025 lines — early-stage liquidity return.

🟠 4. Orange line – DXY (US Dollar Index)

DXY is your “risk-off” gauge.

When DXY rises, global investors flock to dollars → BTC usually weakens.

When DXY peaks and starts dropping, it means risk appetite is coming back → BTC rallies.

BTC and DXY are inversely correlated about 70–80% of the time.

Watch for DXY lower highs after rate cuts — that’s your macro confirmation of a BTC-friendly environment.

🟦 5. Aqua line – BTC (normalized)

You’re not looking for the price itself here, but its shape relative to DXY and the Fed line.

When BTC curls up as the red line flattens and DXY rolls over → that’s historically the start of a major bull phase.

BTC tends to bottom before the first cut and explode once DXY decisively breaks down.

🧠 Putting it together

Here’s the rhythm this chart shows over and over:

Fed hikes (red line rising) → BTC weakens, DXY climbs.

Fed pauses (red line flat) → BTC stops falling, DXY tops.

Fed cuts (dim + bright green) → DXY turns down → BTC begins long recovery → bull cycle starts.

há 7 horas

Notas de Lançamento

🔍 How to Read BTC Macro Fed Watch
🔴 1. Red line – Fed Funds Rate (Policy Trend)

Shows which stage of the U.S. monetary cycle we’re in.

Rising red line: The Fed is hiking → liquidity tightens → money leaves risk assets like BTC.

Flat: Pause phase → markets price in the next move → BTC often sideways.

Falling: Easing / cutting → liquidity returns → bullish environment builds.

The slope matters more than the level — when it turns down, capital hunts for yield again, and BTC usually reacts first.

💚 2. Dim Green Zones – Detected Cuts

Automatic detections from FRED data.
They mark when the effective rate actually started moving down, not the exact meeting date.
Think of them as the Fed “taking its foot off the brake.” That’s when risk markets begin to respond.

🟩 3. Bright Green Lines – Official FOMC Cuts

These are the confirmed policy shifts where the Fed formally cut rates.
Historically, BTC moves from accumulation → markup right after these.

Example: 2020 bright green lines came just before BTC’s full reversal.

2025 lines signal a similar early-stage liquidity return.

🟠 4. Orange line – DXY (U.S. Dollar Index)

Your risk-off gauge.

DXY rising = capital flows to USD → BTC weakens.

DXY falling = risk appetite returns → BTC rallies.

BTC and DXY move opposite ~70–80 % of the time.
Watch for lower highs in DXY after rate cuts as confirmation of a BTC-friendly macro shift.

🟦 5. Aqua line – BTC (Normalized)

Focus on its shape relative to DXY and the Fed line, not the price itself.
When BTC curls up as the red line flattens and DXY rolls over, that’s often the start of a major bull phase.
BTC typically bottoms before the first cut and accelerates once DXY breaks down.

🧠 Putting It All Together

The repeating macro rhythm:

Fed hikes (red rising) → BTC weakens → DXY climbs.

Fed pauses (red flat) → BTC stabilizes → DXY tops.

Fed cuts (dim + bright green) → DXY falls → BTC enters long recovery → new bull cycle begins.