TrendFire
Overview
They say "Trend is your Friend". In my short trading timeline, I've realized the difficult part is making this friendship to happen. Although, not impossible.
Trend Fire is one of the trend following strategy amongst many strategies out there. But the unique part of Trend Fire lies in the implementation and its accuracy to identify healthy Trends. Trend Fire is a purely Mathematical Indicator and aims for generating more successful trade signals. It has a unique strategy to avoid sideways market, false signals, and calculation to find entry for Trends, hence, more quality of trades.
I started my trading journey by observing the market movement for a long time as a beginner trader. Over time, I've realized that profit maximization can happen only if I can properly identify long trend. The reason why I was fascinated with trend following strategies and keen to solve the problems that trend following has.
Approach
In most typical trend following strategy setup, Trend identification starts by using fast and long period moving average crossovers. The fact that, moving averages are lagging in nature, it fails to identify good trends and produce many false signals. Although, it generates signals for trend also along with the false signals.
My aim was to reduce the false signals that occurs during consolidation and gain more accuracy on detecting healthy trends. The reason why I've obtained several approaches -
1. Moving Average Gap - during a consolidation period where lots of false signal generates in a crossover system, we can see that the distance/gap between the moving averages is very small, and in long trend the distance is large. So, a simple implementation was to limit the distance/gap by using a threshold to generate signals for trend outside the false signal threshold. This way, signals for long trend generates a few candles away but reduces false signal generation. For this Gap to work, a gap threshold of 20 works great to identify large trends and it is also a good entry point.
3. Volatility Adaptive moving average - As, this system is based on calculating distance/gap between MA's, the distance also doesn't always indicate proper momentum during a trend. The reason behind is that, 200 Moving average is also moving along the price during a trend and the distance/gap between moving averages vary according to the price. This also leads to generate false signals. So, it is more appropriate to replace 200 moving average with volatility adaptive moving average with a period of 1000, because adaptive moving average always reacts to the price and creates a larger distance/gap with price when there’s a trend in the market. Otherwise, it moves close with price in a sideways market. This nature of adaptability helps to reduce more false signals and gain more chances to take profitable trends.
This is also should be considered that no indicator system alone in trading is purely accurate. So, Trend Fire also is not an exception. There will be false signals, but the probability of getting false signal is less than the overall profits compared to any other moving average crossover system. The idea here is, maximizing your equity gradually over time rather than in a day and trade only when market is tradeable. Exactly how trading should be.
Usage
The usage of the indicator is simple. Once the indicator is applied in the mentioned currency pairs, it will show Buy/Sell signals along with Exit points in the chart.
The yellow line is the volatility adaptive moving average line which create distance during a trend and moves close to price when there is no trend. It is also used for trade exit indication, where the line meets with the price at the end of the trend and shows total pips gains/loss in a popup.
As, the indicator have built in adaptive and ATR base stop loss system, a good approach is to enable this in settings. So that, the loss will be minimum. The reason behind, by default the trades closed when a certain trend is over (When yellow line reaches close to the price after a gap) and this closing point not necessarily closes above/below signal. This is why Adaptive and ATR stop loss together make sure when trend reverses during a trend to take profit. Although, settings for Stop loss have been configured in the indicator, but if needed, settings can be changed for optimized results. It is also advisable to not to trade during a news alert as there are chances to generate false signal for high movement of the market.
Down-Sides
The indicator is dependent on the 1-minute time frame, larger time frames resulting in a signal overfitting condition. The indicator is set for only some selective currencies and commodities. So, its behavior might also change if the currency pair is out of scope. Below is the list of currencies which will work for now.
• EURUSD – FXCM
• GBPUSD – FXCM
• AUDUSD – OANDA
• USDCAD – OANDA
• GBPCAD – FXCM
• USDJPY – FXCM
• GBPJPY – OANDA
• EURJPY – OANDA
• CADJPY – FXCM
• AUDJPY – OANDA
• CHFJPY – OANDA
• EURAUD – FXCM
• GBPAUD – FXCM
• AUDCAD – OANDA
• EURGBP – FXCM
• EURCAD – OANDA
• XAUUSD – OANDA
• XAGUSD – OANDA
• USOIL – TVC
• BTCUSDT.P – BYBIT
More currency pair will be added in the future.
Settings
• Fast MA : Fast Moving Average
• Trend MA : Trend line Ema for determining Exit point
• Trend Threshold : Gap threshold between VAMA and Fast EMA
• VAMA : Volatility Adaptive Moving Average Length for calculation
• Enable Trend Coloring : Enable trend coloring on adaptive moving average line
• Enable Trailing Stop : Enable Adaptive and ATR trailing stop to exit trades
• Show Dashboard : Enable Trend and Signal value dashboard
• Position : Position of Dashboard in Chart
Alerts
Alert conditions are set for trade Entry and Exit scopes only and it does not mention Buy/Sell trade specifically in alerts for now. For that, you need to follow the chart after an alert as indicator shows Buy/Sell/Exit on chart. To create an alert based on the indicator follow these steps:
Go to the alert section (the alarm clock) -> create new alert -> select TrendFire in condition -> Below select TRADE ALERT and select date duration. In option select “once per bar close”, By default the message is set with ticker ID. Change the message if you want a personalized message.
Conclusion
As a programmer and problem solver, I have invested over a year to understand the market and tried to solve the problem that I faced as a trader. I wanted to develop an indicator that make sense and works logically in market. Also, the aim is to trade smartly with a strategy rather than biting in the bush randomly. Trade Fire is a result of countless failures and losses. I hope future contributions will grow this indicator to be more efficient down the line.
Thanks for reading…Happy Trading!
They say "Trend is your Friend". In my short trading timeline, I've realized the difficult part is making this friendship to happen. Although, not impossible.
Trend Fire is one of the trend following strategy amongst many strategies out there. But the unique part of Trend Fire lies in the implementation and its accuracy to identify healthy Trends. Trend Fire is a purely Mathematical Indicator and aims for generating more successful trade signals. It has a unique strategy to avoid sideways market, false signals, and calculation to find entry for Trends, hence, more quality of trades.
I started my trading journey by observing the market movement for a long time as a beginner trader. Over time, I've realized that profit maximization can happen only if I can properly identify long trend. The reason why I was fascinated with trend following strategies and keen to solve the problems that trend following has.
Approach
In most typical trend following strategy setup, Trend identification starts by using fast and long period moving average crossovers. The fact that, moving averages are lagging in nature, it fails to identify good trends and produce many false signals. Although, it generates signals for trend also along with the false signals.
My aim was to reduce the false signals that occurs during consolidation and gain more accuracy on detecting healthy trends. The reason why I've obtained several approaches -
1. Moving Average Gap - during a consolidation period where lots of false signal generates in a crossover system, we can see that the distance/gap between the moving averages is very small, and in long trend the distance is large. So, a simple implementation was to limit the distance/gap by using a threshold to generate signals for trend outside the false signal threshold. This way, signals for long trend generates a few candles away but reduces false signal generation. For this Gap to work, a gap threshold of 20 works great to identify large trends and it is also a good entry point.
3. Volatility Adaptive moving average - As, this system is based on calculating distance/gap between MA's, the distance also doesn't always indicate proper momentum during a trend. The reason behind is that, 200 Moving average is also moving along the price during a trend and the distance/gap between moving averages vary according to the price. This also leads to generate false signals. So, it is more appropriate to replace 200 moving average with volatility adaptive moving average with a period of 1000, because adaptive moving average always reacts to the price and creates a larger distance/gap with price when there’s a trend in the market. Otherwise, it moves close with price in a sideways market. This nature of adaptability helps to reduce more false signals and gain more chances to take profitable trends.
This is also should be considered that no indicator system alone in trading is purely accurate. So, Trend Fire also is not an exception. There will be false signals, but the probability of getting false signal is less than the overall profits compared to any other moving average crossover system. The idea here is, maximizing your equity gradually over time rather than in a day and trade only when market is tradeable. Exactly how trading should be.
Usage
The usage of the indicator is simple. Once the indicator is applied in the mentioned currency pairs, it will show Buy/Sell signals along with Exit points in the chart.
The yellow line is the volatility adaptive moving average line which create distance during a trend and moves close to price when there is no trend. It is also used for trade exit indication, where the line meets with the price at the end of the trend and shows total pips gains/loss in a popup.
As, the indicator have built in adaptive and ATR base stop loss system, a good approach is to enable this in settings. So that, the loss will be minimum. The reason behind, by default the trades closed when a certain trend is over (When yellow line reaches close to the price after a gap) and this closing point not necessarily closes above/below signal. This is why Adaptive and ATR stop loss together make sure when trend reverses during a trend to take profit. Although, settings for Stop loss have been configured in the indicator, but if needed, settings can be changed for optimized results. It is also advisable to not to trade during a news alert as there are chances to generate false signal for high movement of the market.
Down-Sides
The indicator is dependent on the 1-minute time frame, larger time frames resulting in a signal overfitting condition. The indicator is set for only some selective currencies and commodities. So, its behavior might also change if the currency pair is out of scope. Below is the list of currencies which will work for now.
• EURUSD – FXCM
• GBPUSD – FXCM
• AUDUSD – OANDA
• USDCAD – OANDA
• GBPCAD – FXCM
• USDJPY – FXCM
• GBPJPY – OANDA
• EURJPY – OANDA
• CADJPY – FXCM
• AUDJPY – OANDA
• CHFJPY – OANDA
• EURAUD – FXCM
• GBPAUD – FXCM
• AUDCAD – OANDA
• EURGBP – FXCM
• EURCAD – OANDA
• XAUUSD – OANDA
• XAGUSD – OANDA
• USOIL – TVC
• BTCUSDT.P – BYBIT
More currency pair will be added in the future.
Settings
• Fast MA : Fast Moving Average
• Trend MA : Trend line Ema for determining Exit point
• Trend Threshold : Gap threshold between VAMA and Fast EMA
• VAMA : Volatility Adaptive Moving Average Length for calculation
• Enable Trend Coloring : Enable trend coloring on adaptive moving average line
• Enable Trailing Stop : Enable Adaptive and ATR trailing stop to exit trades
• Show Dashboard : Enable Trend and Signal value dashboard
• Position : Position of Dashboard in Chart
Alerts
Alert conditions are set for trade Entry and Exit scopes only and it does not mention Buy/Sell trade specifically in alerts for now. For that, you need to follow the chart after an alert as indicator shows Buy/Sell/Exit on chart. To create an alert based on the indicator follow these steps:
Go to the alert section (the alarm clock) -> create new alert -> select TrendFire in condition -> Below select TRADE ALERT and select date duration. In option select “once per bar close”, By default the message is set with ticker ID. Change the message if you want a personalized message.
Conclusion
As a programmer and problem solver, I have invested over a year to understand the market and tried to solve the problem that I faced as a trader. I wanted to develop an indicator that make sense and works logically in market. Also, the aim is to trade smartly with a strategy rather than biting in the bush randomly. Trade Fire is a result of countless failures and losses. I hope future contributions will grow this indicator to be more efficient down the line.
Thanks for reading…Happy Trading!