Bitcoin and the Path to $140,000Bitcoin and the Path to $140,000
On the 4th, I published a study about the Bitcoin cycle, which can be read here:
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In that analysis, I presented my long-term view, indicating that Bitcoin remains within a bull market cycle.
Today, we will expand this reading by observing the market through a shorter fractal, focusing on structure, targets, and risk zones.
Daily Chart Analysis
Our analysis now focuses on the daily chart:
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On this timeframe, there are clear signs of the formation of the base structure of the 3 of 3 fractal, which historically represents the best risk-to-reward ratio for long positions within a primary uptrend.
Wave Structure and Target Projections
The market has, in theory, already completed:
Wave 1 around 126k
Wave 2, with a correction down to the 83k region
According to Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 3 tends to seek prices above the top of Wave 1.
In this context, an initial technical target projects near 130k, which aligns with the midpoint of the targets I have been working with.
Based on this, our projected targets are:
🎯 115k (initial target)
🎯 130k (primary technical target)
🎯 140k (extension of the move)
Support Zone and Potential Stop Hunt
The structural support of this move remains in the 83k region.
However, a typical stop-hunt move cannot be ruled out, which could push price toward 78k before the uptrend resumes.
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It is important to highlight that a drop to 78k does not invalidate the bullish scenario toward 130k or 140k — it would only delay the move toward those targets.
Risk Management
Based on this analysis:
Conservative stop loss: below 78k
More aggressive stop: around 72k
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Each trader should adjust risk according to their profile and position size.
Flow Context
Due to the strong selling pressure observed in October and November, the market is still carrying a relevant bearish flow.
This helps explain why price is not accelerating immediately, even while maintaining a bullish structure.
Interestingly, this characteristic often precedes stronger moves, as it discourages the majority from entering on the long side too early.
Trading Strategy
More cautious traders may wait for the formation of a daily bullish pivot before looking for long entries.
Personally, I am already positioned long, with a final target at 140k, planning to take partial profits at the levels mentioned above.
Conclusion
The scenario remains technically constructive, with the bullish structure intact, well-defined targets, and clearly measured risk.
From here, it is up to each trader to decide when to enter, how much to risk, and how to manage the position.
