LupaCapital

XRP - the opportunity is clear, be patient [VIP]

Neutral stance until the imbalances hit.
Price is bearish <monthly, but overall in the life of XRP, Bullish from >QTR period. Awaiting the next move, while accumulating for the next position at multiple levels.


Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.

Master Key for zones
  • Red = Three Month
  • Blue = Monthly
  • Purple = weekly



    Short term buys
    Daily Chart breakout
    What have we seen?
    Well using an Inverse Fibonacci from the candle high formation at 1.348X zone, where a formation pattern previously completed. This now becomes the (1) on the Fibonacci. Price formed a "0" at 0.912 (however whilst the market establishes this point - it is impossible to determine the true bottom while price makes lower lows. However, what can be done, is where price tests a downward trend line smaller scale Fibonacci or downward channel patterns assist in area of adding sells or taking of risk measured sells for short scale profit zoning in the meantime while a original position is in play.

    Long position taken
    Why?
    Well the weekly showed a strong change of hands based upon the completion of the daily pattern which equated to 0.66X and pivoted directly above the 0.6645 -0.618 inverse extension zone.
    The weekly chart also provides clarity of an upper zone, where price had previously reverted in which the imbalance had a bullish engulfing weekly candle which indicated the next imbalance was prepared to breakout from the zone.
    To further support this argument - three consecutive weekly candles provided a clear buying imbalance confirmation. Keeping this as a reference for future price action where price will return to retest the imbalance . In this case wick.

    Waiting for the main event:
    Weekly
    From a dollar cost average perspective, I still hold positions within XRP at 0.75-0.64 zone, the reason is for the long term - this is an investment, not a quick trade.

    Inverse Fibonacci - whereby price will indicate a buying opportunity within the following zone.
    Buying confirms on the weekly
  • Price retests "0" upon the swing low and -0.27 price. Looking left, XRP needs to retest this imbalance
  • Please note, due to a monthly zone which has yet to be retested (see below)
  • Price will generate a weekly, bi-monthly change of hands, however to note - this is a gearing up for a shorter term purchase for a profit taking scenario.
  • The cycle here is still a bear market, however, but the overall picture in the grand scheme of things. Bullish - why? Well, look back to the historical. The transition under >0.01 and >0.1 have existed for four and a half years. The chart is now showing a structural cycle where price will provide a clear buying imbalance which needs to be fulfilled, all be it at a higher high. Following technical setups early on assists both sides of the view.

    A potential opportunity taking buys upon multiple levels
    This is based on how the the left wicks and historical wicks have looked [note review back to February 2021 and more importantly September 2018 indicates an important consolidative "second chance", but price continued to fall further. Why? Due to the wicks playing tricks, as the wicks needed filling for imbalance sellers upon the range top to generate liquidity.

    Bi-monthly
    The imbalances are clearer upon the bi-monthly and monthly views, the zone between as mentioned above at "0, -0.27", price here will be a good opportunity to buy and also sell again while taking profits.

    Buying between the -0.618 $0.2-0.33 provides a clear opportunity where the true imbalance is being tested. Refer back to 2017-18 for the previous cycle. (between Nov, 2017 - Sept 2018). What does price indicate here?
    A parabolic shift from the imbalance, new all time high created. Supply imbalance created upon fresh highs. Profit taking for buyers. Large sell off and then two opportunities where buyers had attempted create shorter term hedges, however this ultimately fuels the selling imbalance further. This also follows suit, as to where price is now.


    2017-18 marked up
    The chart is clear, upon the imbalance, price will generate a new confirmation. Using the confidence level of >90%, price will manage to fall, but create higher lows to create the new cycle of structure within a new price zone.


    Monthly buys
    Imbalance needs retesting from the strongest level
    Inverse imbalance profit targets align here with Inverse Fibonacci
    Majority of holders will be in draw down or negative holding, so long as holding dollar cost average - this will be dramatically less.
    The change of hands here is important as November, December 2020 shows a whipsaw retest. Now price will look to close with higher lows to simulate the upper imbalance.


Aviso legal

As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.