What i think will happen over the next 6 months
TECHNICALS:
Bullish:
200 wsma holding
rsi stupidly oversold *though it's not an indication of a bottom
From chart history, the price doesn't like to stay below lower bb'
Lower trendline penetration
Wyckoff
I guess this is bullish. lol
Bearish:
this (overleveraged corona panic)
Hyperwave?
Wedge?
SENTIMENTAL
Finex shorts +200% and longs - 40% near (in the bottom) late shorts loading and longs getting liquidated - bullish reversal. (though this is more short term oriented)
OKEx net longs short is near 0.80 - an almost all-time low.
www.okex.com/markets...-data/btc-usd-weekly
binance short account - 62%, long - 38%
I have never seen F&G staying so low for so long.
alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
After the big dump, more people got rekt trying to 100x long than on 30% down move
People try to short every time they see a down move
A lot of gurus got liquidated from twitter. ( unfortunately not all of them)
After the big dump, i thought btc is a scam. Usually, i am wrong.
Funding on fire
COT. Leveraged funds went short and quit, professional traders went long and also quit. - bullish
tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/133741
Overall, sentiment is extremely negative.
ATH of XBT Volatility (fear)
FUNDAMENTALS
Bullish:
Whales keep growing 1000k+ adresses
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
lowest ever SOPR
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
Puell Multiple is green. And after the halving, it will dump more
Unrealized profit/loss at its lows
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
Reserve/Risk is also supper low
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
NVT is also looking good. Maybe not that good for 2 years ahead
Difficulty ribbon and market multiple
FED printer go brrrr.
Euro printer go brrrr.
Tether printer go brr (almost 2 billions in a few weeks)
www.skew.com/dashboard/stable-coins
USDC printer go brrr.
www.skew.com/dashboard/macro
Q2 alway had higher returns.
India unbanning crypto
Plenty of yearly bases in alts.
Bearish:
- Too many miners. ( more hash = more competition). We may witness a real mining disaster after halving.
- South Korea may do more regulations.
- Transactions do not grow fast.
- People still do not trust it.
Bullish:
200 wsma holding
rsi stupidly oversold *though it's not an indication of a bottom
From chart history, the price doesn't like to stay below lower bb'
Lower trendline penetration
Wyckoff
I guess this is bullish. lol
Bearish:
this (overleveraged corona panic)
Hyperwave?
Wedge?
SENTIMENTAL
Finex shorts +200% and longs - 40% near (in the bottom) late shorts loading and longs getting liquidated - bullish reversal. (though this is more short term oriented)
OKEx net longs short is near 0.80 - an almost all-time low.
www.okex.com/markets...-data/btc-usd-weekly
binance short account - 62%, long - 38%
I have never seen F&G staying so low for so long.
alternative.me/crypt...ear-and-greed-index/
After the big dump, more people got rekt trying to 100x long than on 30% down move
People try to short every time they see a down move
A lot of gurus got liquidated from twitter. ( unfortunately not all of them)
After the big dump, i thought btc is a scam. Usually, i am wrong.
Funding on fire
COT. Leveraged funds went short and quit, professional traders went long and also quit. - bullish
tradingster.com/cot/futures/fin/133741
Overall, sentiment is extremely negative.
ATH of XBT Volatility (fear)
FUNDAMENTALS
Bullish:
Whales keep growing 1000k+ adresses
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
lowest ever SOPR
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
Puell Multiple is green. And after the halving, it will dump more
Unrealized profit/loss at its lows
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
Reserve/Risk is also supper low
studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&...
NVT is also looking good. Maybe not that good for 2 years ahead
Difficulty ribbon and market multiple
FED printer go brrrr.
Euro printer go brrrr.
Tether printer go brr (almost 2 billions in a few weeks)
www.skew.com/dashboard/stable-coins
USDC printer go brrr.
www.skew.com/dashboard/macro
Q2 alway had higher returns.
India unbanning crypto
Plenty of yearly bases in alts.
Bearish:
- Too many miners. ( more hash = more competition). We may witness a real mining disaster after halving.
- South Korea may do more regulations.
- Transactions do not grow fast.
- People still do not trust it.
Comentário:
Tether chart. Maybe people just want to short now. Guess what will happen with em
Comentário:
Comentário:
It is not supper precise but you may understand a level of sentiment while approaching to decision levels
Comentário:
Comentário:
I would say this - when it stays negative/positive over the period of time first poll change will indicate on reversal. The same logic as with support/resistance
