MQP 23 WINTER IS COMING DRAFT 1

HEADER - Odds of August/September rally has dropped dramatically in last week. This is now the long term favorite.

SUMMARY - This means that gold bull market thesis will be in doubt until November at the earliest. The setup for the rally would not be ready until December this year. Furthermore, if gold does not take this December's route up (and it maybe as late as January to finish in February), bear market thesis becomes impossible to ignore.

DETAILS - This is very early, 1-day bar, we are 150-80 days from first good entry. Just want to get this up to reference later.

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FOR THIS SCENARIO -
1. 1800-ish needs to hold the rest of this year
2. there should be a decent run up to Jackson Hole FOMC late
August
3. that rally should be sold until mid-November

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NOTES... UPDATED MATH: 155 DAYS, BUT 130 TRADING DAYS UNTIL LATE ENTRY.