G'day thanks for viewing.
My personal target for VGZ when it becomes an established steady-state 153,000 oz pa producer is USD13. This is at $4000 gold, a $150 higher AISC per ounce as in the Feasibility Study, and a quite pessimistic price to free-cash multiple. Less pessimistic scenarios could easily see prices above $30. The earliest production outlook probable would be early 2029 ramp-up. Even though that is some time away, I feel that I will be well-remunerated for my patience. Entry price is $0.74.
The dragonfly doji is seen as a bullish signal. Basically, it shows that continued bearish pressure is losing strength, support may have been reached, and further price pressure to the downside is easily counter-acted by buying pressure. Prices were pushed down, but are easily pushed back up, and closed in positive territory. Whether you believe in Japanese Candlesticks, trading psychology, or whatever, gold is finding support and one must admit that the sell-off is possibly easing. In the end a few cents here and there won't matter so much as there is a good and increasing chance that this project is going to happen. I would put the chances currently as about 60% chance of progressing to production within 5 years. If I hadn't taken a position in March, I would look at it like this;
Do you think it would be worthwhile investing X amount with a 60% chance of a 6 to 13 x return? "Yes" would be my answer. That is a very attractive risk-reward ratio.
It may be easier for me to envisage as I have flown over the mine - not that this given me an 'edge.' It's more that I have seen the project, know that it is real and concrete (albeit unexecuted), and can talk to real locals who have various opinions on the project. I also see people selling gold nuggets collected in the Pine Creek area weekly on FB marketplace (not that VGZ's Mt Todd open-pit is "nuggety.") There are other gold miners opening up around Mt Todd under the current gold price environment. Luckily for you, Vista Gold is still drastically uncovered (I saw three recent posts from VGZ that had ZERO LIKES in a day, 4 likes in 1 day and 2 likes in 4 days after posting) - other much smaller miners have hugely greater social media coverage). They need to get some new Investor Relations / PR... but again... lucky for you they haven't yet. Otherwise it wouldn't be cheap still.
They have signed at least 5 non-disclosure deals with potential partners. Average time from Feasibility Study to commencement of construction is 1.7 years. That puts us in Q1 2027 followed by a two year construction phase. My scenarios assume no dilution.
My personal target for VGZ when it becomes an established steady-state 153,000 oz pa producer is USD13. This is at $4000 gold, a $150 higher AISC per ounce as in the Feasibility Study, and a quite pessimistic price to free-cash multiple. Less pessimistic scenarios could easily see prices above $30. The earliest production outlook probable would be early 2029 ramp-up. Even though that is some time away, I feel that I will be well-remunerated for my patience. Entry price is $0.74.
The dragonfly doji is seen as a bullish signal. Basically, it shows that continued bearish pressure is losing strength, support may have been reached, and further price pressure to the downside is easily counter-acted by buying pressure. Prices were pushed down, but are easily pushed back up, and closed in positive territory. Whether you believe in Japanese Candlesticks, trading psychology, or whatever, gold is finding support and one must admit that the sell-off is possibly easing. In the end a few cents here and there won't matter so much as there is a good and increasing chance that this project is going to happen. I would put the chances currently as about 60% chance of progressing to production within 5 years. If I hadn't taken a position in March, I would look at it like this;
Do you think it would be worthwhile investing X amount with a 60% chance of a 6 to 13 x return? "Yes" would be my answer. That is a very attractive risk-reward ratio.
It may be easier for me to envisage as I have flown over the mine - not that this given me an 'edge.' It's more that I have seen the project, know that it is real and concrete (albeit unexecuted), and can talk to real locals who have various opinions on the project. I also see people selling gold nuggets collected in the Pine Creek area weekly on FB marketplace (not that VGZ's Mt Todd open-pit is "nuggety.") There are other gold miners opening up around Mt Todd under the current gold price environment. Luckily for you, Vista Gold is still drastically uncovered (I saw three recent posts from VGZ that had ZERO LIKES in a day, 4 likes in 1 day and 2 likes in 4 days after posting) - other much smaller miners have hugely greater social media coverage). They need to get some new Investor Relations / PR... but again... lucky for you they haven't yet. Otherwise it wouldn't be cheap still.
They have signed at least 5 non-disclosure deals with potential partners. Average time from Feasibility Study to commencement of construction is 1.7 years. That puts us in Q1 2027 followed by a two year construction phase. My scenarios assume no dilution.
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.