Oil is Still a Good Buy at this Price

24 de fev. de 2021

The Price of Crude Oil has recovered after an awful 2020 year. With a new president elect bringing new sanctions, there is a lot to like about oil even above $60 a barrel. The massive decrease in supply due to the shutting down of the Keystone XL, will cause a continued uptrend overtime, similar to the one we are currently seeing regardless of demand (which is relatively low all things considered). As mentioned before while oil hasn't seen a huge relative shift in demand since late 2020, with airlines and cruisers opening on a larger scale as the corona virus vaccine is distributed in many first world countries, a continued adjustment of price is likely to follow these reopenings. Furthermore, with similarities in policy between Joe Biden and Barrack Obama, Oil could be worth $90 a barrel again by 2023. This of course would be a result of a full reopening which seems clouded at the moment by new COVID cases occurring, but a direct result of this is a slow recovery of the dollar and this is what allows for this thesis to be more sensical on a short term basis. Between inflation rates and economic scarring, as well as the fact there is a new stimulus bill on the way, the US economy is receiving large amounts of money inflow thus drastically chaining the value of the US dollar, while the impact may only be a small hitch to overall recovery of the dollar, the near term liquidity in cash across the US makes has made for higher prices across the board (Gold, equities, consumer goods). Yes $90 a barrel seemed unlikely/near impossible a year ago but things have changed since then and with new policies (may they be energy friendly or not) oil is bound to see a bounce. My projection would be $75 a barrel by the end of 2021 and possibly $85-90 by the end of 2022 be that if my thesis holds true.