USDJPY Short - Poor US Data Abounds, Risk Aversion Vibes

6 de jul. de 2015

Update 1:
SL was a little too tight. In reality SHort is still in play. SLs can't be moved on TradingView.

Update 2:
TP was hit at 121.423

Technical Factors:

• I like the Tweezer Tops on H4.
  
• The pair is currently trading below the 200,100 and 50 SMA. They are now dyniamic levels of Resistance.
  
• H1 has a number of rejection candlesticks off 122.900 (current pivot); This is around middleground of the the 50%-61.8% Fib retracement level of the previous bear move from 123.700 to 121.830.
  

Fundamental Factors:

• US Jobs Data was poor. ISM data was poor today as well. Tomorrow's trade balance is also expected to be lower, according to Bloomberg analysts' survey. This may dampen positivity on early rate hike expectations.
  
• Greece is potentially giving us a risk-off scenario that usually strengthens the JPY.
  

Targets

• Price is below 122.900 Pivot and downside targets are preferred. Target is 121.400.
  
• Stop is tight at 35 or so Pips.
  

Risks:

• The USD's Safe Haven status may make it an attractive prospect as Grexit fears loom and US Stocks devalue (7th July Monday Intraday) thus it may rise as USD demand increases.
  
• It is difficult to identify a true risk aversion scenario.