SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election
#Spx 1D chart;
Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart;
They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together):
*#Nasdaq100
*#Oil
*#Bitcoin (sometimes)
Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days.
Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days.
In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle
With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin.
If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month.
SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election:
Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17%
Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10%
After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10%
After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart;
They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together):
*#Nasdaq100
*#Oil
*#Bitcoin (sometimes)
Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days.
Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days.
In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle
With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin.
If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month.
SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election:
Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17%
Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10%
After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10%
After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
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