Market Still Laughing at FOMC Rate Hike
Atualizado
Down slightly today and testing the 50 EMA, the markets have realized bullish continuation in spite of rampant inflation and long-term labor shortage challenges ahead.
Daily PA has pushed above 200 EMA with sustained sideways chop for a week, regaining about half of the retracement following the late Nov ATH.
The Federal Reserve FOMC/Central Bank regime has proven ineffective in curtailing an overheated economy driven by unfettered QE and bloated central bank balance sheets.
CPI & PPI reporting for March is released next Monday, the FOMC meets early May prior to the CPI & PPI numbers are released for April.
Major risk of wage-price spiral given significant labor shortage:
- 1.8 jobs available for every employed worker
- Record 5 million more jobs than unemployed
Daily PA has pushed above 200 EMA with sustained sideways chop for a week, regaining about half of the retracement following the late Nov ATH.
The Federal Reserve FOMC/Central Bank regime has proven ineffective in curtailing an overheated economy driven by unfettered QE and bloated central bank balance sheets.
CPI & PPI reporting for March is released next Monday, the FOMC meets early May prior to the CPI & PPI numbers are released for April.
Major risk of wage-price spiral given significant labor shortage:
- 1.8 jobs available for every employed worker
- Record 5 million more jobs than unemployed
Nota
The market fundamentals lead me to assess the near-term is very bearish.Nota
Assuming inflation reporting follows the past several months, with higher than projected CPI/PPI... Expectation is the market will approach April more cautiously with building bearish momentum as central banks scramble to adjust from the last decade+ loose money, dovish approach to reign prices in and attempt to deliver a "soft landing" (whatever that means).
Whatever the markets have "priced in" will likely be insufficient given the Fed's toolbox consists of a hammer and a screwdriver... there's no allen wrench or vice grips in that kit, so it's likely that retail will be getting pounded or screwed (or both).
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