We expect the ECB to be dovish tomorrow with Draghi to comment on potential rate cuts which could start from September and further quantitative easing. The Dax is particularly volatile and could easily jump 200/300 points above 12,660 to reach at year to date high on the outcome of the ECB meeting tomorrow. We are therefore long the index providing the Dax doesn't fall below the Fibonacci level below 12282 at which stage we will cut part of our position. Additionally the Dax is supported by current EUR weakness but can be impacted by global economic uncertainty as a result of an escalation in US China trade tensions as most of the companies in the index are global exporters.