GBPUSD Short on account of Dovish Bank of England

Technical Analysis:

• Technicals are on the chart, the Fibonacci Retracement, S/R Levels and Measures of Trend.
  
• The pair is trading below the 200 Day MA and the Long Term Pivot at 1.56600. Typically, short positions are sought with this in mind.
  
• If today's daily candle close is bearish, then the candlestick formation becomes an Evening Star at 52400 Resistance.
  

Fundamentals and Market Conditions:
GBP:

• Last week's dovish turn from the BoE makes sense in light of upcoming headwinds facing the UK.
  
• First, significant front-loaded fiscal consolidation is likely to weigh on growth.
  
• Second, the Brexit debate will heat up soon and potentially deter foreign portfolio and direct investment flows into the country.
  
• This is particularly problematic given the UK's large current account deficit.
  
• Finally, underlying sources of labour market health, such as hours worked and weekly earnings, are turning.
  
• The main risk to this trade is a resurgence in UK economic data.
  

USD:

• Regardless of last week's downtick in economic data, King Dollar has held strong, resorting to a range rather than a severe correction in the majors.
  
• The Fed is currently more hawkish than the BoE and as we all know Central Banks and their Fiscal/Monetary Policy are King when it comes to driving currencies.
  
• Federal Funds Futures currently imply a 70% probability of a rate hike in December. See here.
  

Comentário:

Trade is in the Red after last night's FOMC Minutes release though don't think it'll get past the 200 SMA though.

Comentário:

Friday D1 TFclosing with an excellent Bearish Engulfing Candle.
1.5300 proved to be formidable resistance this week.

Comentário:

Back in the green.

Comentário:

#GBP bears smelling blood? #BoE's Carney re-iterates UK will likely remain in low interest rate environment for some time.

Comentário:

Target 1 at 1.500 hit.
Half the position closed and profits booked and Stop Loss amount reduced by half.

Comentário:

SL at BE.

Trade fechado: stop atingido:

Meh. Half the position moved back to hit stop loss at BE.
Win - Win either way.
Happy about this one.