The Euro has sunk and moved in line with our last market update however our models are now signalling signs of greater downside risk than a short/medium risk reversal.
Macro view
Options
- A bearish shift in market sentiment with put options (bearish bets) now claiming the highest premium in nearly four months
- One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR) (higher volatility put premiums), crossed below zero on the 10th February and fell to -0.425 last Friday, the lowest level seen since 29th October 2019
Futures
- Hedge funds (leveraged funds) substantially increasing EUR short positions
Thematics
- Dollar bid remain supported under risk aversion
Technicals
- Symmetrical swing into 1.07xx institutional floor likely before any meaningful correction
Our last update
Macro view
Options
- A bearish shift in market sentiment with put options (bearish bets) now claiming the highest premium in nearly four months
- One-month risk reversals (EUR1MRR) (higher volatility put premiums), crossed below zero on the 10th February and fell to -0.425 last Friday, the lowest level seen since 29th October 2019
Futures
- Hedge funds (leveraged funds) substantially increasing EUR short positions
Thematics
- Dollar bid remain supported under risk aversion
Technicals
- Symmetrical swing into 1.07xx institutional floor likely before any meaningful correction
Our last update
