Could EUR break the current range today?

From technical perspective, the pair is stuck in the 1.1100 - 1.1050 range. And we'll need to see a sharp breakouth in any direction to give us more clarity in the medium-term. For now, while the Dollar index is bullish in the medium-term, we can expect the euro to fall below 1.1050.

Additionally, ECB President Lagarde will make her first major speech later today. If Lagarde uses today's speech as an opportunity to clarify her position on easing, we will see a strong reaction in EUR. A dovish prospects can push EUR/USD lower to 1.10, especially if that will be supported by weaker PMIs. More optimistic bias, on the other hand, could raise the euro to a 2-week high above $ 1.11. Outside of this, a positive surprise on PMIs will indicate that the European manufacturing malaise is bottoming and this will helps EUR/USD and German 10-years yields push higher. Further key resistance is 200-day SMA around 1.1175 (Nov. high).

Either way, there appears scope for an uptick in EURUSD volatility. Our strategy is for trading in the range - Buy on the top limit and Sell on the bottom border with tight Stop-Losses above 1.1100 for the Sell position and bellow 1.1025 for the Buy.

What do you think?

Trade ativo:

Now let see if or when the pair could hit our Sell target...

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido:

The TP of the Sell order was hit on 27th Nov.