Euro BundViés de baixa
Remind Bill Gross Prediction: "Short of a lifetime"
Atualizado
It was an April 21th 2015. when Bill Gross made his famous call:
"Gross: German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime. Better than the pound in 1993. Only question is Timing / ECB QE"
Source: mobile.twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-short-lifetime-144103525.html
Quote: "Bunds were yielding 0.94 percent in Tuesday (On April 21th 2015) morning trade, up 19.8 percent on the session but down nearly 83 percent year to date.
Traders have been piling into the nation's debt ever since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced his intention to commence U.S.-style quantitative easing , a debt-buying program aimed at keeping yields low and goosing the financial markets with liquidity."
Source, with Video: finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-short-lifetime-144103525.html
Opinion: As now everybody might know the Fed is expected to tell on wednesday, September 20th 2017, how to reduce it's huge balance sheet. Expected is a 10 billion drop monthly in Q1 2018. Also expected is that the fed will add 10 billion each quarter. In Q4 2018 the fed is expected to lower it's balance sheet by 50 billion USD monthly. It is unlikely that the ECB not to start tapering in the next 6 month. Bund Yields should rise, the EURO BUNDFUTURE should drop now. Maybe it's not a short of a lifetime, but after a 2 years sideways range it is becoming a short now and it's unlikely that stockmarkets are going to like it.
"Gross: German 10yr Bunds = The short of a lifetime. Better than the pound in 1993. Only question is Timing / ECB QE"
Source: mobile.twitter.com/JHIAdvisorsUS/status/590519759797530624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-short-lifetime-144103525.html
Quote: "Bunds were yielding 0.94 percent in Tuesday (On April 21th 2015) morning trade, up 19.8 percent on the session but down nearly 83 percent year to date.
Traders have been piling into the nation's debt ever since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced his intention to commence U.S.-style quantitative easing , a debt-buying program aimed at keeping yields low and goosing the financial markets with liquidity."
Source, with Video: finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gross-short-lifetime-144103525.html
Opinion: As now everybody might know the Fed is expected to tell on wednesday, September 20th 2017, how to reduce it's huge balance sheet. Expected is a 10 billion drop monthly in Q1 2018. Also expected is that the fed will add 10 billion each quarter. In Q4 2018 the fed is expected to lower it's balance sheet by 50 billion USD monthly. It is unlikely that the ECB not to start tapering in the next 6 month. Bund Yields should rise, the EURO BUNDFUTURE should drop now. Maybe it's not a short of a lifetime, but after a 2 years sideways range it is becoming a short now and it's unlikely that stockmarkets are going to like it.
Nota
REVIEW: Expectations by end of 2016
Nota
REVIEW: In April 2017 "The Rise on Populism Trades" brought down yields to 0,21% - probably last time for a while:
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Click on both charts above to load comments and new bars.Nota
In shedding bonds, Fed aims for boring end to crisis-era measuresinvesting.com/news/economy-news/in-shedding-bonds-fed-aims-for-boring-end-to-crisisera-measures-529814
Nota
Borrowing bonds may get harder as Fed pares holdingsinvesting.com/news/economy-news/borrowing-bonds-may-get-harder-as-fed-pares-holdings-530172
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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW, EUROPEAN PMIEurozone growth seen picking up in September — Markit PMI
ft.com/content/715dc0e2-9025-3fed-8d94-ef8f66dfd48d
Nota
Fed's Harker sees three rate hikes next year, after one more in 2017 investing.com/news/economic-indicators/feds-harker-sees-three-rate-hikes-next-year-after-one-more-in-2017-537294
Nota
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: US TAX REFORM Remark: US TAX cuts likel to cut tax revenues as well. US T-Bonds should face more headwinds and pressure long term.
Quote: "If Senate can pass budget resolution, tax cuts have strong chance: Zoellick
Source: marketwatch.com/story/if-senate-can-pass-budget-resolution-tax-cuts-have-good-chance-zoellick-2017-10-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
Nota
Germany's Greens warn against blind adherence to balanced budget investing.com/news/world-news/germanys-greens-warn-against-blind-adherence-to-balanced-budget-546660Trade ativo
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Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803
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