S&P BEARISH GARTLEY & FRACTAL CONFLUENCE
2-Pane Logarithmic chart of S&P futures;
Top Pane- Monthly Chart. Puts things into perspectives as far as relative price movement the last few cycles has gone
Bottom Pane- Daily chart w/ Fibonacci Retracement levels + a Bearish Gartley Harmonic
I have seen the Bearish Gartley harmonic pattern only a few times on daily charts. Of the times I preemptively identified the potential set-up for this harmonic, only 50% of them end up actually resulting in the harmonic. With that said, this is more-so a caution of warning and/or consideration, and something I will actively hedge for going into the mid to high 2800's. If it appears this chart is playing out and we observe a breakdown/rejection, I will then accumulate additional exposure to the short-side and trade the chart.
With that said, some key summary points:
- Current price action, reversal & consolidation points, both have satisfied the initial conditions required for a Bearish Gartley reversal harmonic pattern. Price rejection from Point D would suggest/confirm the pattern, to which a ~1.618 extension of the move from X-A is anticipated, which I would look for daily/weekly bounce support in the 2,400-2500's, as outlined with the demand area. This area is considered key support w/ it being a double bottom to Februrary sell-off this past year, as well as the 0.382 Fibb level.
- Technical considerations for why this pattern is definitely possible with a rejection at Point D-
1. It is major resistance b/c this was a prior ATH
2. It is the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC)
3. It is the around the 0.786 Fibb Retracement level.
4. Timing lines up with EOY- which, with the price action this past year might lead some players/portfolios to cash out now in anticipation of any upcoming sell-offs
This harmonic pattern is invalidated if price action moves beyond point D +/- 0.5%
Top Pane- Monthly Chart. Puts things into perspectives as far as relative price movement the last few cycles has gone
Bottom Pane- Daily chart w/ Fibonacci Retracement levels + a Bearish Gartley Harmonic
I have seen the Bearish Gartley harmonic pattern only a few times on daily charts. Of the times I preemptively identified the potential set-up for this harmonic, only 50% of them end up actually resulting in the harmonic. With that said, this is more-so a caution of warning and/or consideration, and something I will actively hedge for going into the mid to high 2800's. If it appears this chart is playing out and we observe a breakdown/rejection, I will then accumulate additional exposure to the short-side and trade the chart.
With that said, some key summary points:
- Current price action, reversal & consolidation points, both have satisfied the initial conditions required for a Bearish Gartley reversal harmonic pattern. Price rejection from Point D would suggest/confirm the pattern, to which a ~1.618 extension of the move from X-A is anticipated, which I would look for daily/weekly bounce support in the 2,400-2500's, as outlined with the demand area. This area is considered key support w/ it being a double bottom to Februrary sell-off this past year, as well as the 0.382 Fibb level.
- Technical considerations for why this pattern is definitely possible with a rejection at Point D-
1. It is major resistance b/c this was a prior ATH
2. It is the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC)
3. It is the around the 0.786 Fibb Retracement level.
4. Timing lines up with EOY- which, with the price action this past year might lead some players/portfolios to cash out now in anticipation of any upcoming sell-offs
This harmonic pattern is invalidated if price action moves beyond point D +/- 0.5%
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