One more Minor Rally and then... who knows? But First...

So we got most of the rally I had expected yesterday. I did not expect it to drop off 70% of the way through the rally though and drop off hard. That being said, I still expect than for us to reach up and grab a 2hr Uptrend signal. If you look, you see the 2hr now sticking out like a splinter in your finger as it is just running against every other trend indicator.

Unfortunately, while I did make $1000 yesterday, nothing really went according to plan even with the market moving much of the way I expected and I did not get to capitalize on my own market analysis coming through.... I'm over it though.

If you don't feel like watching the video, the trends are as follows;

Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3630 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High
1Hr - 3644 Uptrend (10/11/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3745 Downtrend (10/06/2022) Higher Low
3Hr - 3677 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3714 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
6Hr - 3759 Downtrend (10/07/2022) Lower Low
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low

Statistically, we have not had more than 5 down days in a row all year, and so in that level of statistics, today should be an up day.

Additionally, most days before CPI data have been pumped upwards.

Earnings;
We had PepsiCo report, they beat estimates.

Economic Data;
PPI (Headline and Core) is today (8:30 EST)
FOMC Minutes also (14:00 EST)
I expect both to begin to cause some significant movement.

I would tread carefully over the next couple of days. Make sure to double check your risk management plan.

My Sentiment Today;
Shorter Term ; Bullish
Short Term ; Neutral
Medium Term ; Neutral Bullish
Long Term ; Bearish

Nota

Core PPI stayed the same, Headline PPI actually increased. And Down we go. Can't say I didn't put some warning out. Potentially new lows? I'm not sure. Not sure how I want to trade this at the moment.

Nota

The Full report is as follows
Core PPI MoM - Last .3% Expected .3%, Actual .3%
Core PPI YoY - Last 7.2% Expected 7.3%, Actual 7.2%
PPI (Headline) MoM - Last -.2%, Expected .2%, Actual .4%
PPI (Headline) YoY - Last 8.7%, Expected 8.4%,Actual 8.5%

Remember, Headline includes Food and Gas type things, Core does not.

Nota

Nothing is more annoying to me than the "Experts" keep talking about that JOLTs Report and how it isn't falling in line with current data. IT IS 2 MONTHS OLD! Jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez. LoL

Nota

The irony that we are opening at pretty much the exact same price point we did yesterday.... And no, this time I will not be going long into the open at 3604.... lol

Nota

30m Downtrend is forming. It will be a lower low.

Nota

There was a knife catch signal at 3586, I did not snag it. I do not feel comfortable about that level, especially with it too close to meeting current lows. Why get in here if we can get into a long at 3560ish.

Nota

Damn... could have snagged at least 1k and then sat back out =\ I still think we may head lower before we get a rally for the day into positive territory.

Nota

Well this day has been significantly less exciting than I'd anticipated after the bad PPI data. Perhaps no one wants to get ahead of CPI data now.

Nota

Jeez... literally like a 15 point spread today for the most part. Clearly everyone feels the same as I do... that when it dips below 3600 it could go 20-30 points lower, and that once it starts to get up past 3600 it might rally. I don't like either potential at this point. Guess I'll wait until the close to decide how I may want to decide for tomorrow.

Nota

We ended on finally getting a 30m downtrend signal at the close. The 1hr has not signaled down yet. The 30m is a lower low

SemperTrader

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