Does the Rally Fizzle before Thursday? Trends for 11/8/2022
To answer today's question... yes, I think this rally could make it another 10-20 points higher before it fizzles out.
In scrolling through the trends, I found that the 15m was a well-established funnel we were using Monday and Tuesday. However, today it appears that the direction of the uptrend/uptrending line is beginning to flatten.
As we approach the CPI data, patience will be key again in this market. My math would say that when that CPI data comes out, based on where we are in the approach, that we end up heading lower, however, as I've said many times nothing annihilates a technical analysis with any indicator like an emotional trading day. If the CPI data sends us higher, I believe it will be shortly after that we will end up heading down anyways, though how far down is up to debate.
If you just want the trends, as always, here they are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High
1Hr - 3772 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3799 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High
3Hr - 3816 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low
6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low
12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High
Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Ultimately there is still a conflict between the 30m/4hr uptrending line fighting against the 1hr/2hr/3hr downtrending line. So in following trends we have little direction at least in terms of a move over the next couple of days.
Earnings;
Disney is today, and some gas company that goes by Oxy. Otherwise seems mostly minor reports.
Economic Data;
Not much today. Redbook could send some life into the market, but don't count on it. All eyes will be on who wins the Congress as the only major thing today, and if you know how US elections go, just because it is election day doesn't mean anyone will actually be elected as we begin to argue over the results.
My sentiment for now;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bullish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish/ Neutral
I'm marking this idea as long, as I feel I have to commit to my idea and I think we end up positive by the end of the day, though perhaps not by much. I personally don't like it when an idea doesn't commit to any actual direction and the message someone gives is, "Well we could go lower, or we could go higher." I mean... no sh%t lol.
In scrolling through the trends, I found that the 15m was a well-established funnel we were using Monday and Tuesday. However, today it appears that the direction of the uptrend/uptrending line is beginning to flatten.
As we approach the CPI data, patience will be key again in this market. My math would say that when that CPI data comes out, based on where we are in the approach, that we end up heading lower, however, as I've said many times nothing annihilates a technical analysis with any indicator like an emotional trading day. If the CPI data sends us higher, I believe it will be shortly after that we will end up heading down anyways, though how far down is up to debate.
If you just want the trends, as always, here they are;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3789 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Higher High
1Hr - 3772 Uptrend (11/04/2022) Lower High
2Hr - 3799 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower High
3Hr - 3816 Uptrend (11/07/2022) Lower Low
4Hr - 3843 Downtrend (11/02/2022) Higher Low
6Hr - 3760 Downtrend (10/17/2022) Higher Low
12Hr - 3779 Uptrend (10/23/2022) Lower High
Daily - 3923 Up (10/28/2022) Lower High
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Ultimately there is still a conflict between the 30m/4hr uptrending line fighting against the 1hr/2hr/3hr downtrending line. So in following trends we have little direction at least in terms of a move over the next couple of days.
Earnings;
Disney is today, and some gas company that goes by Oxy. Otherwise seems mostly minor reports.
Economic Data;
Not much today. Redbook could send some life into the market, but don't count on it. All eyes will be on who wins the Congress as the only major thing today, and if you know how US elections go, just because it is election day doesn't mean anyone will actually be elected as we begin to argue over the results.
My sentiment for now;
Shorter Term - Neutral
Short Term - Neutral/Bullish
Medium Term - Bearish
Long Term - Bearish/ Neutral
I'm marking this idea as long, as I feel I have to commit to my idea and I think we end up positive by the end of the day, though perhaps not by much. I personally don't like it when an idea doesn't commit to any actual direction and the message someone gives is, "Well we could go lower, or we could go higher." I mean... no sh%t lol.
Nota
Well, there it is. We got and held a 4hr uptrend at 3826 that ended here from 5am EST to 9am EST.I don't see much more upside past this, and any major move upward, based on trends, is coming back down. Be interesting to see how this open comes.
Nota
Just FYI, I know it has been a bit since I've talked about Triangles and the Apex of a Triangle showing built pressure in the market, but we are entering further into an APEX of a triangle now.For informational purposes, Triangles do NOT predict price direction, but pending price movement, as the belief of those who think the price of the market should go lower begins to build against those who believe the price of the market should go higher, and eventually one begins to convince the other and the market begins to move extensively.
Nota
The range of this triangle, is currently 3810 for a bottom, to 3843 as a top. Triangles are best found on tick charts, because it is more about price exposure to this psychological momentum than it is the timeframe of the market.Nota
While we had a drop in the open, it was below average volume (below 50k).Nota
I went Long at 3811, just looking for a brief trade here.Nota
Profit stopped at 3812, looks like lunch is on the market today.Nota
Drats, looks like it might be leaving me behind in the end.Nota
In trying to snag this movement I've had 3 trades for $50 heh... Likely going to keep trying here, see what happens.Nota
The normal opening volumes for the first 15 minutes is 50k, 40k, and 30k, respectively. Today we had about 45k, 25k, and 20k... so very low volume opening that took the price action of today back to basically zero.Nota
Remember that APEX Triangle zone I talked about? Complete bounce off the bottom right there. I don't think we break either direction today.Nota
Running a short now from 3838 the other way. I may hold this one with more confidence than the upward movement I tried to snag.Nota
Disregard, I am clearly skittish today with such an unpredictable move going into today. I cashed out for $150 at 3835... I may call it a day here shortly, I just don't feel good about either direction at the moment.Nota
Alright, now I'm short at 3841... this was about the range I was expecting us to get to. Would like to see a swing down, even if we stay in positive territory here.Nota
Profit stopped. Going to look for another entry, maybe higherNota
Short again at 3844Nota
Profit stopped for another $50... really thought I'd threaded the needle thereNota
Short again at 3844.75 lol... This is definitely a let's toy with my emotions kinda day.Nota
Well, it appears I didn't thread the needle as precise this time. Looking for signs this movement fizzles out and we end the day perhaps at 3820Nota
Mmm, bailed on it again at 3843. Going to look for a safer entry.Nota
In case anyone is wondering why the paranoia... if I'm going to carry a position into that CPI data, I want it to be one that can't get market spoofed or that I can bounce out of in case it doesn't end up take us negative like I expect currently based off trends. So... yeah, I'd rather not get stuck in a negative trade, expecting the market to go negative long term, because than I have to constantly decide to bail on a trade I'd probably get into in the first place (the higher it goes, the more I believe we have to go down, type of thing)Nota
I am short 3850.Nota
While I'm slightly annoyed it has gone 10 points higher, I do believe we are running out of head room here. I'm waiting to see if we get a 6hr uptrend.While we COULD get a 6hr uptrend and a 12hr uptrend here before we fall, I find it unlikely. Past that however, in terms of trends, we have nothing that could help guide upward movement.
Nota
While I decide what I want to do with this melt upward momentum, I shall run and go and vote. Remember if you haven't, to go vote yourself.Nota
Exited that trade at 3847. Looking for a safer entry point after that melt upward.Nota
Well, I've made my daily goal, but clearly this was not my trading day as I jumped too early in both the up and the reverse for today. Mixed signals clearly have my skittish as does the pending CPI data.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.