Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023

30 de jan. de 2023

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023



Based on the data from OVX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 40.5%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 5.62% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 84.54
BOT: 75.54

If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the OVX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
74% according to the last 20 years of data
50% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 72% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan


From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
31.5% to touch the previous weekly high
66% to touch the previous weekly low(already hit)

At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: 0% Bearish Trend
W Timeframe: -53% Bearish Trend


Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
4.65% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
5.6% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario