Accumulation wyckoff , bottom may be soon in btc holders pt2
Atualizado
This idea is a follow up on my previous accumulation wyckoff idea but better scaled as my timeframe on the previous idea was to short, the play is still thesame as part 1 but this will give us a better and more accurate view of whats next to come key factors are still thesame and targets remain thesame too =]
this cycle is to me a reversal of the trend and will be longing and taking positions as this wyckoff progresses (playing with the waves)
this cycle is to me a reversal of the trend and will be longing and taking positions as this wyckoff progresses (playing with the waves)
Nota
btc is now above its hrly ma200 , wich is now becoming a support , leg up is now halfway and the closer we get to that area the will be some resistances from our 200ma daily, this will fit exacly witht he top this last wave will haveNow on the other side, there is still a bullish scenario to this idea if it breaks the ma200 daily we could see it go as high as 45k, its not ruled out but it is there to keep in mind of
Nota
nothing special to report right now,m btc is taking it slow today but this may change very soon as it gets closer to that support channel, on the other side btc is showing some weaknes already and may have trouble finding its way to the target , even if btc fail to reach its second target keep in mind that it is optional and not nessesary a need, but ofcourse it will have to find its bottom again in phase C to still be valid. if you decide to trade or follow these chart, just be carefull and make sure you have your stop losses set! Nota
a closer look, 41k/42k marked in a orange zone is still the target, lets see if btc has the strength to get that far, if so im expecting a hard rejection, not becuase of the horizontal resistances but also the fact the daily ma200 being in that zone at 41.4kkeep your eyes open as it could go fast and make sure you have your stoplosses set =]
Nota
good morning everyone, yesterday on my last update i was talking about weakness and that it may not hit its target and that things could go fast, it seems we are at that point of going back to the 30k zone, in between now and then it will likely consolidate abit before going to its target around 30k just wait the ride out if you plan to go long and if you are short make sure you have stoplosses set =] Nota
seems my pt1 timescale was good after all haha, but we will continue on this second part, so what are the expectations for the coming hrs?, if we look at the lower timeframe indicators we can tell we are in some over sold territory so the most realistic thing now would be that we will be consolidating between 34/36k zone before continuying the drop, i would not sugest trading these little waves based on my chart as they are not actual waves but a projection of direction!, if you do so make sure you have your stop losses set Nota
the potential consolidation zone we are sitting in right now (pt1 layout) it may take a fiew hrs from here before we see another drop down Nota
i am even suprised by myself how good this idea of mine played out so far, lets see how we wil be doing from here =]Nota
new people or people with not much experience make often simple mistakes if it comes to finding when to jump in and when not to, so i have a simple but productive example here when you should not be jumping in, on this chart here you see a orange horizontal line, this is the support we have broken recently and made the drop down as reaction to that break down (simplified weaknes and could not maintain its price), often when a break down happens the market needs to figure out if it is a fake break or a real one, saying the market wil olmost always retest its recent broken support (smalle ones not but decent to major ones wil) so in this example you can see that it produced a big green candle at a lower price and can be confused with a bottom, also known as a bull trap this is were inexperience people often make their mistakes and end up with a bag, to avoid this in future times you want to wait for a confirmation of the trend reversal. in this scenario that would be your orange resistance previously your support that got broken down, if a 1hr+ candle closes above that orange line we basicly speak of a false breakdown and the orange support will be still your support in that case, if it fails to break it back up, you often can consider this a rejection and basicly tells you that the curent price is not favorable and supply is still greater then demand, in a sense the market is looking for the right price where supply meets demand wich is often alinged with another factor, volumes is 1 of the most important thing to read in such situation, real bottoms are always volatile and peaking in volumes, i hope this little lesson helped some of the people here if so let me know in the comments ;) Nota
btc right now is moving downwards to its last area of phase B, we can maybe expect a little bounce here still before it enters phase C, this phace will be more bleeding and can hurt some people holding longs, just keep in mind that when the panic is most, you nearly always find a bottom close to it, shorting? please becarefull and make sure you got your stoplosses set it will be a bouncy ride ^^ Nota
just an update of this progess, my part 1 of this idea is more following the trend then pt2 does i use this image from part 1 to explain things better, right now we entered phase C, the key targets are our white lines in this phase, holding on 1 of these supports will validate phase c , just to keep in mind that the waves drawn here are indicational, and often not match the waves in a trend as we saw on phase B , as for right now it touched our first key target (first support white line) if i look closer at bitcoin i notice 2 things, volume that is not really that high, and the lack of selling pressure combined, that said it may aswell find support on its first target (white line) at 33.7k, this support line is from its climax sellof dip exluding its shadow. if you tend to buy at this zone i would highly recomend a stoploss below the support Nota
as we wait for btc to move forward at a slow phase there is a fiew things to mention, in my last update i mentioend that things are looking kind of washed out if it comes to volume and sell pressure, now phase C is technicly validated as it hit the first line of support its also important to note that the grasp of bears losing its strength readable from a bullish divergence on the hrly, this often means that the market is likely going to find support soon if not already has and make a move upwards, just keep in mind it can make a big drop and invalidate this bullish divergence and still aims for target 2 at 31/32k zone Nota
hello there here with another update, based on the chart and key targets it found support on our white line validating this phase, but what can we potentialy expect next? the most common situation i saw in the past is a inversed shs now this is ofcours abit erlier to determite if this will play out, looking at the wyckoff template this is however the most likely scenario, if in this case a inversed shs happens we should pull out the length of the head and should bring us up to the 40k zone, from there we have to see what happends next, what i think what will happen is that the strength of buy pressure increases along the way up, keep in mind this is just thinking of possible options and adjust the plan when needed for now i bought my positions and accordingly will put my stoplosses higher as time passes by (already set in profit) lets see what happends! =] Nota
wo0p wo0p time for phase D =] Nota
phase D started of as expected with a strong move up , along the way we wil reach our LPS target in that area there are 2 things to watch for, 1 is the ma 200 on the hourly that counters as resistance, and soncdly the red line you see is also a resistance line from its down trend past weeks, expecting a small correction here shown in phase D, depending on how strong btc is, generaly we should see more strength coming from btc the further we get into this phase, stay tuned for more updates ;) Nota
right now according to the wyckoff pattern we should be seeing a little drop here or consolidate, looking at the hrly we can see a bullish flag forming with just above it the ma200, and below the previously broken resistance of a potential shs, i expect btc to move in this range abit/ resetting indicators fueling itself for its next move up, i am abit worries for the daily bearish pendant though, i cannot rule out that that pattern se next update could invalidate this wyckoff idea, non the less its been a good run if that is the case =] Nota
the daily pendant i am talking about Nota
seems this idea of mine is somewhat still valid, the big problemis the timeframe as i usualy have issues with that :PNota
recharted it abit the pattern is still thesame but streched out again once more, im sorry haha, the principals are still thesame though pattern is still in play and we should right now be topping for abit around 35k to make a move back to the 33k zone area Nota
i keep getting the timeframe for this wyckoff wrong, but as many may know the wyckoff theory is still at play and we are in spring right now this timeframe and scale is more realistic then my posted ones before Nota
hello peeps here i am with another little update, asfar i can see we are in the testing ground and we should see a turn around in the coming 12 hours, it very nicely tested the white lines of previous bottoms and seem to hold so far, keep in mind that if we drop further down and key targets are lost this will be invalidated with and exeption of wicks what btc often tend to do :P HAVE A GOOD DAY ! Nota
another update: right now we are in the 34k zone, i still expect a propper retest of the red resistance channel( downtrend resistance from 6k top) or either a ma200 on the 4hr retest before making the move down back to 34,5k zone ish (could be retest of the by then broken red line that will count as a new support), setting up the rocket upwards later on Nota
Aside from this wyckoff theory and how it will play out we always have to look for alternatives on how the market will play you, you can never ever only look the bullish side of this story becuase that eventualy will bite you back , so right now i wanted to also talk about a potential bearish pennant it created so farsnapshot
the white lines and the blue marker of the waves is our bearish pennant wich can be out alternative play having multiple patterns in the chart there will be 1 that rule, the biggest one that will be our wyckoff theory, non the less often the bigger pattern plays out more but there are scenarios that it would not, so keep this pennant in mind and make sure that you have your positions well set between the 2 patterns, you dont want to get caught off guard ;)
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