Sept 2018 BTC 4000/4500 or 7800?

I was put the wrong chart in my last analysis and when I tried to rework again, tradingview just cleared all my chart so I have to do it from scratch ...

Anyway, here's my analysis for next month!

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CBOE/CME BTC Future Conspiracy Theory
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Some claim that both CME/CBOE BTC future settlement date don't relate to the price of BTC going up or down at all. But it's fun to think about it because everytime CBOE/CME settle their profit, the price like to pump or dump from the top / or the bottom for 28-30% profit ( in short or long ) almost every time. ( check my previous arrow ).

So that's why I believe that there must be something related to CBOE/CME BTC Future haha..

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My Analysis
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Ok, since the month CBOE settlement date is on Sept 19, 2018. I think about some possibility as follow ( Current BTC price 5950 )

Scenario#1 : Price jump back to 6400-6500 after CBOE settlement date ( Aug 15 ) then dump down to 4500 due to ETF Rejection.
* This kinda hard because market is kinda scare right now and people start to short if the price start to bounce back.. So it's really hard to happen.

Scenario#2 : Price just staggering at 6000+- for a while, then dump to 4000 after ETF rejection
* This is most possible scenario in my opinion, ETF will never get approve easily.

Scenario#3 : ETF approved, price jump to 7800
* Just some hope in this cryptocurrency market lol..

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Since the market still very strong bearish...so keep shorting when price bounce might be the best strategy for now.