Another Bitcoin fractal, trying to make sense of whats going on
Atualizado
My best idea ever, taking some time off the last 2 days :) The whales just continue to play their little games by squeezing leveraged short and long positions out of the market. Can't play them, it's just too easy. Maybe it's time we retail traders stand together, combine our volume and use their own game against them. Yeah, maybe we could even make a blockbuster movie about this :) I love me some science fiction :) LOL
My last update of the previous analysis i showed 2 important support levels where the price could bounce up from. The first support around 7350 did the trick and the price got pushed back to 7700. From that point on i told my members that i thought i was seeing distribution, but it was still very confusing to figure out what was going on. TA was showing bullish signs, that bull flag was very strong and was even turning slowly up and was about to squeeze upwards. But of course out of no where the price got dumped, the move we saw a few hours ago. After that 200 point drop the price got pushed up again to 7700 like that dump was a glitch. If your a whale, why not push out leveraged traders and take your money while your accumulating or distributing. It's like a bonus, like the cherry on top :)
Anyway, in this chart we can see allot of similarities of what is going on. As you know i have been saying i am still bearish for the medium term, but i just could not say what was going to happen on the short term. 2 days ago after we finally dropped out of that wedge, i said we would have 2 options.
- Break those 2 support levels from the last update of my previous chart (73xx and 71xx)
- Make a higher low at those same support levels and make another move up above the high.
As we can see in the chart, the fractal is not 100% identical so it's no guarantee that the 7700 high we just saw is the high already and that we start to move down. But based on this fractal, i don't want to see the price get above the 7800/7900. This fractal confirms my bearish view as well. That's why TA is so great, you can turn any chart to fit your view :).
Even without this fractal, i just give it a very small chance that 7K price action is the fundament of a low to start another bull rally, i just highly doubt that. I want to see more volume to begin with and at least double bottom kind of formation. So the minimum i expect is a test of the 7100/6900in the coming week or 2. But the movement i have in mind for the med term is a drop below the 7K to form a big V shape low. If we get to see that, than i might even become bullish for the rest of the year :).
As long as the price stays above the 73xx, we have to assume the bulls are still in control and we should see another wave up. So for me the 73xx is an important turning point.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis
My last update of the previous analysis i showed 2 important support levels where the price could bounce up from. The first support around 7350 did the trick and the price got pushed back to 7700. From that point on i told my members that i thought i was seeing distribution, but it was still very confusing to figure out what was going on. TA was showing bullish signs, that bull flag was very strong and was even turning slowly up and was about to squeeze upwards. But of course out of no where the price got dumped, the move we saw a few hours ago. After that 200 point drop the price got pushed up again to 7700 like that dump was a glitch. If your a whale, why not push out leveraged traders and take your money while your accumulating or distributing. It's like a bonus, like the cherry on top :)
Anyway, in this chart we can see allot of similarities of what is going on. As you know i have been saying i am still bearish for the medium term, but i just could not say what was going to happen on the short term. 2 days ago after we finally dropped out of that wedge, i said we would have 2 options.
- Break those 2 support levels from the last update of my previous chart (73xx and 71xx)
- Make a higher low at those same support levels and make another move up above the high.
As we can see in the chart, the fractal is not 100% identical so it's no guarantee that the 7700 high we just saw is the high already and that we start to move down. But based on this fractal, i don't want to see the price get above the 7800/7900. This fractal confirms my bearish view as well. That's why TA is so great, you can turn any chart to fit your view :).
Even without this fractal, i just give it a very small chance that 7K price action is the fundament of a low to start another bull rally, i just highly doubt that. I want to see more volume to begin with and at least double bottom kind of formation. So the minimum i expect is a test of the 7100/6900in the coming week or 2. But the movement i have in mind for the med term is a drop below the 7K to form a big V shape low. If we get to see that, than i might even become bullish for the rest of the year :).
As long as the price stays above the 73xx, we have to assume the bulls are still in control and we should see another wave up. So for me the 73xx is an important turning point.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis
Nota
At the moment it looks like bulls are trying to push higher, this bull flag/triangle is still very strong. So no sign of weakness yet! First small sign would be a drop below 7620/7600. Bulls need to break 7700Nota
Another fractal i made a few days ago on IOTA, was almost 100% perfect, but it made one last small rally towards 2.03 before making that identical dump. Nota
This is my bigger picture, think this bearish triangle is still 100% in play. I think if bulls can't break the 7800/7900 the bearish version is probably going to happen. Can't say HOW it will go, this blue line is just a guess. But a big V shape low would be the most bullish for the long term. I still think we are seeing distribution here. The only way this idea can be countered, is through a big increase of buying volume, if that doesn't happen, i think it's only a matter of time.Nota
Lower time frame we can see a new upwards channel and maybe even a rising wedge. From the looks of it, it's slowly going down to test the support line again. Depending on what will happen there we can make a better prediction for the rest of the day. Nota
What a surprise, nothing has changed :)The price took a small dump but the volume was low so no real read on what the intent was. So we might see another move up, if we start to see a small pump that takes out the 7800, be aware of a fake breakout. The blue line is a possibility of what the move could look like IF we move up and if the breakout fails. If that happens than we will probably get confirmation if the price breaks the 7600ish. If we break the 7800 it should stay above the 7700 to confirm another move up. Not much more to say about what's going on.
Nota
So we have made a small drop, but there is no volume confirming it, not yet at least. First small support has been broken, but not yet very meaningful because of the low volume. For the ones who shorted it, just be aware of another squeeze up, since this small move downwards looks a bit to controlled. Pure TA, it broke the channel and retested the former support as resistance now.
Nota
Volume increased a little bit with that drop, it has doped below that support line/channel. If bulls are not able to push it back up above that former support line, than biggest chance we break that support line from the 70xx low and will retest the 73xx again. Now it's almost weekend, so that make the chances for a drop much lower, otherwise i would say it's almost certain it will break that support as well if we get there. So just taking it step by step nowNota
First small rejection of that resistance, but no real selling volume, so we might see another attempt to get back in that channel again.Nota
So it jumper back in again and from the looks of it, bulls want to push it another 100 points higher. Think since it's weekend, chances are bigger we move up towards 7760, and might see a move i had in mind yesterday. Making a weak breakout towards 7800/7900 and start to drop on Monday.Nota
Up and down and up and down, first attempt to break that red resistance line failed. Surprisingly, because usually after a small bear trap like that blue area, the market shows it wants to go up and usually does. Think if that green support area breaks, we will probably resume the drop again. Should see a bounce up again soon, because the longer it stays here the bigger the chance for a drop again. Wish i had something more exiting to say :)Nota
No power left in this market, not for the bulls and the bears. Only weak moves up and down. Even a little 100 point H&S can't reach it's target. Now i dropped out of what looks like a small wedge, but buyers are not giving up yet. So they might push it back above that line again. Otherwise we will probably drop towards the 7560 again. Nota
So the wedge was there and (almost) reached it target as well. Still no real bounce yet, and the market is looks very weak on this time frame. Could still move up of course because the volume is very low, But those support lines will be important, if those brake we should see a drop to the 7500/7450. Alts are not mixed signals as well, moest are neutral on the low time frame, so no real clues from that. Based on the chart we should drop, but during these slow moves those sudden spikes in the other direction are exceptional anymore. My med term view is still bearish, has not changed Nota
So the support broke and is now hanging on the 7400ish support. If this one breaks than the last one is probably around 7320. Best case we rally up again towards 7550 before dropping again.Nota
Might see a bounce nowNota
That green should hold, the first attempt failed, so its still weak!!
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