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Kairi Relative Index Upgrated v1Kairi Relative Index Upgraded v1 — how far from “fair” are we, right now?
Most oscillators mash together price and momentum in ways that are hard to explain to a new trader. KRI is refreshingly simple: it measures how far price is from its moving average, as a percent of that average.
KRI = 100 × (Price − SMA) / SMA
Above 0 → price is above its average (stretched up).
Below 0 → price is below its average (stretched down).
The farther from 0, the more stretched we are from the mean.
This upgraded version keeps the pane clean (zero line, colored KRI, optional guide rails at +Line Above / Line Below) so you can read extension, reversion pressure, and reclaims at a glance—on any timeframe.
(If you add screenshots: image #1 should label the zero line and ± threshold lines; image #2 should show a textbook “overshoot at VAH/VAL + KRI extreme → rotate back to POC.”)
What you’re seeing (and how to read it fast)
KRI line
Green when KRI ≥ 0 (price above SMA)
Red when KRI < 0 (price below SMA)
Zero line = the moving average itself (no stretch).
Guide lines (default +10/−10) = “This is pretty far for this setting.” Treat these as review-and-decide zones, not auto-trade signals.
Three quick reads:
Magnitude: how far from the mean (size of KRI).
Direction: above/below zero (which side of the mean).
Turn: KRI curling back toward zero (reversion starting) or accelerating away (trend impulse continuing).
What KRI really measures (plain-English)
The SMA(length) is your “fair value” line for this indicator.
KRI tells you the percentage deviation from that fair value—normalized, so you can compare across assets/timeframes with the same length.
Because it’s a pure distance metric, KRI excels at:
spotting over-extensions into VP edges (VAH/VAL) and AVWAP,
timing mean-reversion back to POC/AVWAP in balance,
confirming reclaims (KRI crossing back through zero at a level),
framing pullbacks in trend (healthy dips usually avoid deep negative KRI in strong uptrends).
Using KRI on any timeframe
The workflow is always Location → Flow → KRI:
Location: a real level (Volume Profile v3.2’s VAH/VAL/POC/LVNs or Anchored VWAP).
Flow quality: check CVDv1 (Alignment OK? Absorption not red?).
KRI: are we stretched into/away from the level, and is KRI turning?
Scalping (1–5m)
Fade the stretch (balance): At VAH/VAL or Session AVWAP, an extreme KRI that rolls back toward zero = quick rotation to the middle (POC/AVWAP).
Don’t fade if bands are expanding and flow is strong (CVDv1 says go) — big KRI can stay big in expansion.
Intraday (15m–1H)
Continuation after pullback: In uptrends, look for shallow negative KRI at support (VAL/AVWAP) that turns up → join trend.
Failed breakout tell: Price pokes above VAH but KRI barely increases or rolls over quickly → likely a reclaim back inside value.
Swing (2H–4H)
Edge-to-mean rotations: At composite VAH/VAL, KRI extremes are great context: fade back to POC/HVNs if flow doesn’t confirm a breakout.
Reclaim confirmation: After a flush below Weekly AVWAP, KRI crossing back up through zero on the reclaim bar is a clean green light.
Position (1D–1W)
Regime posture: Multi-day runs with sustained positive KRI (and shallow dips) = constructive; mirror for downtrends. Use KRI pullbacks to ~0 at Weekly AVWAP for adds.
Entries, exits, and risk (simple rules)
Mean-reversion entry: At VAH/VAL or AVWAP, wait for KRI extreme at/through your guide line and a turn back toward zero.
Stop: just beyond the level; Target: POC/HVN or the zero line on KRI.
Trend-continuation entry: In a trend, take pullbacks where KRI stays modest (doesn’t blow through your lower/upper guide) and turns back with the trend at the level.
Avoid: chasing breakouts where KRI is already extreme and still climbing unless CVDv1 says Alignment OK + no Absorption and you have a clean retest.
Settings that matter (and how to tune them)
Length (default 50): defines the moving average “fair value.”
Shorter (20–34): faster, more signals, more noise—good for intraday.
Longer (50–100): steadier, better for swings/position.
Source (default close): keep it simple; hlc3 or close both work.
Line Above / Below (defaults +10/−10): your review zones. Tune them to the asset/timeframe:
Scroll back 6–12 months and eyeball typical |KRI| spikes. Set your lines around the 80th–90th percentile of |KRI| for that market and length.
Majors often need smaller thresholds than thin alts on the same timeframe.
Tip: If your KRI is always beyond the lines, increase length or widen the thresholds. If it never touches them, shorten length or tighten thresholds.
What to look for (pattern cheat sheet)
Stretch into level → curl: KRI tags an extreme right at VAH/VAL/AVWAP, then turns back → classic rotation.
Shallow pullback in trend: KRI dips toward zero but doesn’t hit your lower guide, then turns up at support → continuation.
No-juice break: New price high with weaker KRI (smaller positive % vs prior leg) → breakout lacks extension; plan for retest or reclaim.
Zero-line reclaims: After a washout, KRI crosses zero as price reclaims AVWAP/VAL → clean confirmation.
Combining KRI with other tools
Cumulative Volume Delta v1 (CVDv1):
Use KRI for stretch/turn, CVDv1 for quality.
A KRI extreme at VAH with CVDv1 Absorption (red) is a do-not-chase; look for the fail/reclaim.
A KRI pullback toward zero at VAL with Alignment OK + strong Imbalance + no Absorption = high-quality continuation.
Volume Profile v3.2:
KRI’s best signals happen at VAH/VAL/POC/LVNs.
LVN traversals with rising KRI often run quickly to the next HVN—use VP for targets.
Anchored VWAP :
Treat AVWAP as fair-value rails. KRI zero cross on an AVWAP reclaim is your green flag; KRI extreme + failure to accept beyond AVWAP warns of a fake break.
Common pitfalls KRI helps you avoid
Buying high into a tired move: KRI already very positive at VAH and rolling over = likely rotation; wait.
Fading true expansion: In strong trends with confirmed flow, KRI can remain extreme; don’t automatically fade just because it’s “far.”
Wrong thresholds: Copy-pasting ±10 to every market/timeframe can mislead. Calibrate to the market you trade.
Practical defaults to start with
Length: 50
Lines: +10 / −10 as placeholders—calibrate later.
Timeframes: great out of the box on 15m–4H; for 1–5m try Length 34 and tighter lines; for daily swings try Length 100 and broader lines.
Process: Level → CVDv1 quality → KRI stretch/turn. If any of the three disagree, wait for the retest.
Disclaimer & Licensing
This indicator and its description are provided for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. makes no warranties and assumes no responsibility for any decisions or outcomes resulting from the use of this script. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use at your own risk.
Licensing & Attribution:
Copyright (c) 2018–present, Alex Orekhov (everget). Modified and upgraded by .
The original “Kairi Relative Index” is released under the MIT License, and this derivative is distributed under the MIT License as well. Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files to deal in the Software without restriction, subject to the conditions of the MIT License, including the above copyright notice and this permission notice. The Software is provided “AS IS,” without warranty of any kind, express or implied.
Cycle Momentum Filter [JopAlgo]Cycle Momentum Filter (CMF) — spot “when” to engage the market, on any timeframe
Markets breathe in cycles (expansion → contraction) while momentum and trend decide which moves actually travel. CMF is a compact filter that blends those ideas so you can answer two questions before you click:
Is this a good moment to take a trade? (cycle position)
If I take it, is there enough force behind the move to carry it? (momentum + trend)
CMF does not replace your levels—use it with your location tools (e.g., Volume Profile v3.2 and Anchored VWAP). It simply keeps you out of entries taken at the wrong part of the swing or against weak momentum.
(When you add screenshots: image #1 should label each sub-line and the green/yellow/red background; image #2 can show CMF turning green at VAL + AVWAP before a rotation back to POC.)
What you’re seeing (and how to read it at a glance)
CMF draws five sub-lines around a zero line, plus a background color:
Cycle Oscillator (blue): where you are in the swing. Above zero ≈ cycle crest side; below zero ≈ trough side.
ROC % (purple): short-term price acceleration. Above zero = positive momentum; below zero = negative.
MACD Histogram (orange): classic impulse measure (fast–slow EMA gap). Above zero = bullish impulse.
EWO (cyan): Elliott Wave Oscillator (EMA fast – EMA slow). Above zero = trend tilt up.
RSI-MA (gray, plotted as RSI−50): smoothed RSI relative to 50. Above zero = buyers have the relative strength.
Background color = the filter result:
Green → bullish window: cycle favors longs and momentum/trend/RS confirm.
Red → bearish window: mirror logic.
Yellow → neutral: at least one piece disagrees—do less, or wait for alignment.
For new traders: Every sub-line crossing above/below zero is a yes/no vote. Green happens only when all bullish checks are true; red when all bearish checks are true.
How CMF is built (plain-English version)
Cycle (DPO-style): CMF subtracts a displaced SMA from price to remove trend and expose the swing. Below 0 = you’re on the dip side of the cycle; above 0 = rally side.
Momentum (ROC): percent change over roc_length bars; tells you if price is actually accelerating.
Impulse (MACD hist): measures push from fast vs slow EMAs.
Trend tilt (EWO): broader drift via two EMAs (fast/slow).
Participation bias (RSI-MA): smoothed RSI relative to 50 (plotted as RSI−50 so its zero line matches the others).
The signal rules are strict AND conditions:
Bullish = cycle < 0 and ROC > 0 and MACD hist > 0 and EWO > 0 and RSI-MA > 0.
Bearish = cycle > 0 and ROC < 0 and MACD hist < 0 and EWO < 0 and RSI-MA < 0.
Otherwise Neutral.
This strictness is deliberate: it cuts a lot of low-quality entries.
Using CMF on any timeframe
The framework is the same—only your anchors/targets change as you zoom.
Scalping (1–5m)
Where: VP v3.2 VAL/VAH/LVNs or Session AVWAP.
When: take longs when CMF turns green on/after a dip to your level; shorts when it turns red on/after a pop into resistance.
Skip: yellow reads in the middle of the range; that’s chop.
Tip: on very fast pairs, require two consecutive green/red bars before entry.
Intraday (15m–1H)
Use CMF green to time pullbacks to AVWAP or VA edges in the trend direction.
In balance days, wait for CMF color + level alignment to fade back to POC.
If CMF flips yellow after entry, tighten risk; if it flips against you, consider exiting early.
Swing (2H–4H)
Treat first green after a higher-timeframe pullback to Weekly AVWAP or composite VAL as your A-setup.
If CMF stays green through the first pullback, consider adding; the opposite for red in downtrends.
Position (1D–1W)
Fewer, bigger decisions: CMF green at Monthly/Quarterly AVWAP or at composite VAL suggests rotation toward POC/HVNs; CMF red at VAH suggests mean-reversion lower.
If CMF can’t turn green/red at key retests, that’s valuable: the level likely won’t hold.
Entries, exits, and risk (simple rules)
Entry: trade at a level when CMF just flips to your side (green for longs / red for shorts).
Invalidation: if CMF reverts to yellow immediately, it’s a warning; if it flips to the opposite color, that’s your soft stop condition—tighten or exit unless higher-timeframe context argues otherwise.
Targets: use Volume Profile v3.2 (POC/HVNs) and AVWAP (mean) for logical destinations.
Don’t use CMF alone for stops; place them beyond the level or structure.
Settings that actually matter (and how to tune them)
Cycle Length (default 20): swing detection.
Shorter (10–14): quicker flips, better for scalps.
Longer (30–40): steadier cycle for swings/position.
ROC Length (default 10): momentum lookback.
Shorter: earlier yes/no, more noise.
Longer: slower, more selective.
MACD Fast/Slow (5/13) & EWO Fast/Slow (5/35): impulse and drift.
Increase slow values to calm false flips; decrease fast to react sooner.
RSI Length (14) & Smoothing (5): participation tilt.
Reduce smoothing for faster confirmation; increase to avoid whips.
Background on/off: keep it on while learning; once you’re comfortable, you can hide the background and read the lines against zero.
Tuning tip: If you trade only a few coins, optimize Cycle and ROC first; leave MACD/EWO defaults. Then decide how strict you want RSI (try RSI smoothing = 3 for faster reads).
What to look for (pattern cheatsheet)
Green at a dip-level (VAL/AVWAP) → rotate toward POC/HVN.
Red at a pop-level (VAH/AVWAP) → rotate down toward POC/HVN.
Color holds through the retest → continuation is more likely.
Color flips against the breakout → watch for failed break and reclaim.
Only one line disagrees (e.g., ROC < 0 while others > 0) → expect slower follow-through; consider waiting one bar.
Combining CMF with other tools
Volume Profile v3.2 :
Use VAH/VAL/POC/LVNs for where. CMF answers when.
Green at VAL → mean-reversion long to POC.
Red at VAH → fade to POC.
LVN breaks with green often travel quickly to the next HVN.
Anchored VWAP :
Reclaim of AVWAP + CMF turns green → higher-quality long; rejection + red → cleaner short.
Weekly AVWAP + CMF color is a reliable swing compass.
Cumulative Volume Delta v1 (CVDv1):
CMF says “now”, CVDv1 says “how good”.
Prefer CMF green when CVDv1 Alignment = OK, Imbalance strong, Absorption ≠ red.
If CMF flips green but CVDv1 shows Absorption (red), do not chase; look for a reclaim instead.
Common pitfalls CMF helps you avoid
Buying high in the cycle: CMF keeps longs to when the cycle is on the dip side and momentum/trend agree.
Forcing trades on yellow: yellow is your do-less mode—wait for alignment.
Ignoring flow at levels: CMF gives the window, but quality still matters; confirm with CVDv1.
Practical defaults to start with
Cycle 20 | ROC 10 | MACD 5/13 | EWO 5/35 | RSI 14 (smooth 5)
Works out of the box on 15m–4H.
For scalps, try Cycle 14 / ROC 7–9 / RSI smooth 3.
For daily swings, Cycle 30–34 / ROC 12–14.
Alerts (what they tell you)
Bullish Signal: CMF turned green (all bullish checks passed). Use it as a heads-up; still anchor the entry to VP/AVWAP.
Bearish Signal: CMF turned red. Same rule: wait for the level.
Open source & disclaimer
This indicator is published open source so traders can learn, tweak, and build rules they trust. Tools guide decisions; risk management decides outcomes.
Disclaimer — Not Financial Advice.
The “Cycle Momentum Filter ” indicator and this description are provided for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of capital. makes no warranties and assumes no responsibility for any trading decisions or outcomes resulting from the use of this script. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Keltner Channels v1 [JopAlgo]Keltner Channels v1 — a clean volatility envelope for timing pullbacks, breakouts, and risk
Keltner Channels are a moving-average centerline with volatility-based bands above and below. They give you a live “speed limit” for price: when the market is calm, bands are tight (expect mean reversion); when volatility expands, bands widen (trend moves can breathe). KC v1 keeps the classic idea but adds a small twist that traders appreciate in crypto: an adaptive centerline that switches between EMA and SMA based on trendiness, plus a choice of how you measure volatility for the bands.
This makes KC v1 useful for any timeframe—from fast scalps to multi-day swings—because it answers three practical questions on every chart:
Where’s the “middle” of price right now? (the centerline)
How far is “far” for current volatility? (the bands)
Should I fade back to the middle or ride with the expansion? (context from band width + slope)
If you attach screenshots to your script page, show one image labeling Upper / Middle / Lower bands with a classic pullback-to-middle entry, and another showing a band expansion where price hugs the outer band in trend.
What you’re seeing (and how it’s computed)
Middle band (MA):
KC v5 computes both an EMA and an SMA of your source (default close) with the same length, then auto-selects the middle band:
If ATR > SMA(ATR) over length, KC marks the market as trending and uses the EMA (faster, responsive).
Otherwise, it uses the SMA (steadier) in balance.
Result: you get a centerline that’s calm in chop and snappier in trend, without touching settings.
Upper / Lower bands:
upper = middle + (mult × volatility)
lower = middle - (mult × volatility)
You choose the volatility measure via Bands Style:
Average True Range (default): smooth, robust; uses ATR(atrlength). Best all-around choice.
True Range: raw TR each bar (more jumpy; reacts to gaps and spikes quickly).
Range: RMA of (high - low) over length (gentler; good for tight mean-reversion regimes).
Colors & fill:
Upper = red, Lower = green, Middle = white, with muted fill between bands so you can still read candles.
How to use Keltner Channels on any timeframe
Same framework everywhere: trade with the envelope when expanding, fade back to the middle when contracting—but only at objective locations and with healthy flow.
Scalping (1–5m)
Pullback-to-middle entry: In a micro-trend, wait for price to retrace to the middle band and print a hold. Enter with the trend, stop just beyond the opposite side of the middle or below minor structure; first target is the near band.
Band tap fades (only in contraction): When bands are tightening and the middle is flat, quick fades from upper → middle or lower → middle are high-probability if your volume/flow read doesn’t show aggressive pressure against you.
Avoid: Fading when bands expand and middle slopes—expect continuation instead.
Intraday (15m–1H)
Continuation rides: When bands open up (volatility expansion) and the middle slopes, price often walks the outer band. Enter on minor pullbacks that hold above the middle (for longs) and trail using the middle band or a structure stop.
Squeeze to break: A period of narrowing bands often precedes a move. Let price close outside the channel with good flow, then buy the retest toward the middle that holds.
Swing (2H–4H)
Trend participation: In established trends, treat pullbacks to the middle band as your primary entry. The upper/lower band is not a take-profit by itself—use it with Volume Profile targets (POC/HVNs) or key swing levels.
Mean reversion in balance: When the middle is flat and bands are tight over many bars, fade outer band → middle at Volume Profile edges, provided your flow read isn’t showing absorption against your idea.
Position (1D–1W)
Context: Use KC to judge regime (wide bands + slope = trend; tight/flat = balance). Position entries come from pullbacks to middle that coincide with Weekly AVWAP / VP value edges.
Entries, exits, and risk (simple rules)
Trend entry (with expansion):
Wait for band expansion + sloping middle in your direction. Enter on the first clean pullback to middle (or shallow pullback that can’t even tag middle).
Stop: below the middle band or just beyond local swing.
Trail: by the middle band in trend, or step-trail under pivots.
Targets: next Volume Profile HVN/POC or structural levels; the far Keltner band is a context line, not a hard TP.
Mean-reversion entry (in contraction):
Bands tight + flat middle → fade outer band back to middle at a Volume Profile VA edge.
Stop: just beyond the band.
Target: middle band (first), opposite band if flow remains weak.
Breakout confirmation:
A strong close outside the band by itself can be a trap. Treat it as signal only when your flow read confirms (see “Combining with other tools”).
Settings that actually matter (and how to tune them)
MA Length (default 20): controls both middle smoothness and the trending test (ATR vs SMA(ATR)).
Shorter (10–14) reacts faster, more whips in chop.
Longer (30–50) steadier middle, better for swings/position.
Multiplier (default 2.0): scales band distance.
Crypto majors: 1.8–2.2 is a good starting range on 15m–4H.
Volatile alts: 2.2–2.6 to avoid over-triggering.
If you keep getting faked out on fades: increase the multiplier.
If the channel rarely contains price for long stretches: decrease slightly.
Bands Style:
ATR for most use cases;
TR when you want maximum responsiveness to spikes;
Range for calmer envelopes in slow, balanced markets.
ATR Length (default 10): only applies if you choose ATR for band style.
Shorter = quicker band changes, good for scalps;
Longer = steadier bands for swings.
Note: KC v1 auto-selects EMA vs SMA for the middle band using the ATR trend test. That’s intentional, so you don’t have to toggle it manually.
What to look for (pattern cheatsheet)
Walk-the-band: In expansion, price hugs the outer band and barely returns to the middle—ride, don’t fade.
First touch of middle in trend: Often the cleanest add or first entry after a breakout.
Band pinch (“squeeze”): A long, narrow channel with flat middle sets up a breakout. Wait for acceptance (close outside + hold on retest).
False break tell: Price pokes outside band but closes back inside quickly—watch for reversion to middle, especially if your flow read shows Absorption against the poke.
Combining KC v1 with other tools
like the Cumulative Volume Delta v1 (CVDv1):
Do not chase an outside-band move if CVDv1 shows Absorption—that’s a classic failed break.
Prefer pullbacks to the middle band when Alignment = OK and Imbalance % is strong in your direction.
Reclaim setups: after a poke outside the band, a CVD divergence on the return through the middle often precedes a mean-reversion run.
Volume Profile v3.2 :
Use VAH/VAL/LVNs for location. A pullback-to-middle that coincides with VA boundary is A-tier.
Breakouts through LVNs with expanding bands tend to travel fast toward the next HVN/POC—good for continuation targets.
(A great screenshot: KC middle kiss at VAL with CVDv1 Efficient, then a move to POC.)
Common pitfalls KC v1 helps you avoid
Fading expansion: Trying to short the upper band when bands are widening and middle slopes up is how you get steamrolled. KC tells you it’s not that kind of day.
Chasing inside contraction: Buying every tiny outside poke while bands are pinched leads to whips. Let acceptance form; buy the retest to middle that holds.
Stops too tight: In trend, volatility is elevated; stops need to live beyond the middle or behind structure, not right at the band.
Practical defaults to start with
Length: 20
Multiplier: 2.0 (adjust ±0.2–0.4 per asset)
Bands Style: ATR
ATR Length: 10
Timeframes: works out of the box on 15m–4H; for 1–5m scalps, consider length=14; for daily swings, length=30.
Open source & disclaimer
This indicator is provided open source so traders can study, test, and adapt it to their workflow. No tool guarantees outcomes; risk management is essential.
Disclaimer — Not Financial Advice.
The “Keltner Channels v1 ” indicator and this description are provided for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of capital. makes no warranties and assumes no responsibility for any trading decisions or outcomes resulting from the use of this script. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Directional Indicator Crossovers [JopAlgo]Directional Indicator Crossovers — read trend intent at a glance, on any timeframe
Most traders ask two questions before they click: who’s in control right now and is control getting stronger or weaker?
The Directional Indicator (DI) answers the first one cleanly. +DI tracks upward directional movement; –DI tracks downward directional movement. When +DI crosses above –DI, buyers have the initiative; when –DI crosses above +DI, sellers do. DI Xover focuses on that simple, tradeable signal—the crossover—and keeps the pane uncluttered so you can layer it with your location/flow tools.
(If you add screenshots: image #1 can label +DI, –DI and a bullish crossover; image #2 can show a failed crossover in chop next to a successful one at a strong level.)
What you’re seeing (and how it’s built)
This indicator plots two lines in a separate pane:
+DI (green): smoothed positive directional movement.
–DI (red): smoothed negative directional movement.
Under the hood (length = 14 by default):
It measures how much today’s high exceeded yesterday’s high (up move) and how much today’s low fell below yesterday’s low (down move).
It keeps only the dominant side each bar (if up > down and up > 0 → up counts; vice-versa for down).
It normalizes by True Range (so moves are scaled by volatility) and smooths with RMA (so you don’t get jitter).
It raises alerts when +DI crosses above –DI (bullish) or –DI crosses above +DI (bearish).
How to read it, fast:
Cross up = buyers just took initiative.
Cross down = sellers just took initiative.
Wider distance between the lines = stronger control.
Lines braided/tight = balance/chop → expect more fake crosses.
DI is about directional control. It doesn’t tell you where to trade—that’s your location (e.g., Volume Profile, AVWAP). Use DI as a timing/confirmation layer, not as a standalone level generator.
Using DI Crossovers on any timeframe
The framework doesn’t change; only your expectations do as you zoom.
Scalping (1–5m)
Treat crossovers as triggers at levels. If price is tagging VAL/VAH/LVN (from Volume Profile v3.2) or Anchored VWAP, a fresh +DI cross up is your green light for a quick long; –DI cross up flips that logic for shorts.
Avoid taking every crossover mid-range—wait for location first.
In fast tape, require the lines to separate for 1–2 bars after the cross before you click.
Intraday (15m–1H)
In trend days, the first pullback into your level (POC/VA boundary/AVWAP) that prints a fresh +DI cross up is often the cleanest add/entry.
In balance days, fade DI crosses at edges back to POC—only if your flow tool isn’t screaming absorption against you.
Swing (2H–4H)
Look for confluence: at Weekly AVWAP or composite VAL/VAH, a DI crossover that stays separated for several bars is a solid momentum confirmation.
Failed crossover (lines recross quickly) near a level is a useful fail signal—expect a move back into value.
Position (1D–1W)
Use fewer, bigger signals: a weekly DI cross at Monthly/Quarterly AVWAP or at composite value edges marks a regime change.
Add on pullbacks when the controlling DI stays dominant (distance holds or widens).
Entries, exits, and risk (simple rules)
Entry (with level): wait for price to reach your level (e.g., VAL/VAH or AVWAP), then take the trade with the DI cross in that direction.
Filter: skip crosses when the two lines are braided (tiny separation) unless you’re trading a tight scalp with strict risk.
Exit / reduce: if your trade was based on a bullish cross, consider reducing when –DI recaptures +DI or the lines flatten at your target HVN/POC.
Stops: put them beyond the level (not just on a DI recross), but treat a fast recross as a warning to tighten.
Settings that actually matter (and how to tune them)
DI Length (default 14):
Shorter (7–10) = faster signals, more noise (good for scalps with filters).
Longer (20–30) = fewer but stronger signals (good for swing/position).
If you often see flip-flops, lengthen the setting or take crosses only at VP/AVWAP levels.
Pro tip: Define a minimum separation rule for yourself (e.g., after a cross, require the gap between +DI and –DI to increase on the next bar). You don’t need extra code for this—just enforce it visually.
What to look for (pattern cheatsheet)
Cross + hold at a level: The lines cross at your level and keep separating → high-quality entry in that direction.
Sneaky fail: Cross, then immediate recross back → treat it as a fade signal back into value (especially near VAH/VAL).
Strength confirmation: After a breakout, +DI stays above –DI on pullbacks → trend is healthy; buy dips at AVWAP/POC.
Pre-move tell: DI lines unbraid and begin diverging before price leaves a range; wait for location + trigger.
Combining DI Xover with other tools
Cumulative Volume Delta v1 (CVDv1):
Use DI for direction, and CVDv1 for quality. A bullish DI cross with ALIGN OK + Imbalance strong + no Absorption is a far better long than DI alone.
If DI crosses up but CVDv1 flags Absorption (red), don’t chase—look for the fail/reclaim instead.
Volume Profile v3.2 :
Let VP choose the battleground (POC/VAH/VAL/LVNs). Take the DI crossover at those references.
Classic: bearish DI cross at VAH → fade toward POC; bullish DI cross at VAL → rotate to POC—assuming CVDv1 isn’t vetoing with Absorption.
Anchored VWAP :
Treat reclaims/rejections of AVWAP as the location and DI cross as the trigger.
Example: price reclaims Weekly AVWAP, then on the next pullback, a +DI cross up confirms the add.
Common pitfalls this helps you avoid
Trading crosses in the middle of nowhere. DI is a trigger, not a level; wait for VP/AVWAP.
Chasing every wiggle. When the lines are braided, you’re likely in balance—expect fake crosses.
Ignoring flow. A DI cross against CVDv1 Absorption is often a trap; quality > quantity.
Practical defaults to start with
Length: 14
Timeframes: Works out of the box on 15m–4H. For 1–5m scalps try 10–12; for daily/weekly swings try 20–30.
Process: Only act on crosses at levels (VP v3.2 / Anchored VWAP), and prefer those where CVDv1 says ALIGN OK and no Absorption.
Alerts (what they tell you)
Bullish DI Crossover: +DI crossed above –DI → buyers just took initiative. Look to your chart for location and CVDv1 quality before entering.
Bearish DI Crossover: –DI crossed above +DI → sellers took initiative. Same rule: confirm at a level with flow.
Open source & disclaimer
This indicator is published open source so traders can learn, adapt, and build rules they trust. No tool guarantees outcomes; risk management remains essential.
Disclaimer — Not Financial Advice.
The “Directional Indicator Crossovers ” indicator and this description are provided for educational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of capital. makes no warranties and assumes no responsibility for any trading decisions or outcomes resulting from the use of this script. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Markov Chain [3D] | FractalystWhat exactly is a Markov Chain?
This indicator uses a Markov Chain model to analyze, quantify, and visualize the transitions between market regimes (Bull, Bear, Neutral) on your chart. It dynamically detects these regimes in real-time, calculates transition probabilities, and displays them as animated 3D spheres and arrows, giving traders intuitive insight into current and future market conditions.
How does a Markov Chain work, and how should I read this spheres-and-arrows diagram?
Think of three weather modes: Sunny, Rainy, Cloudy.
Each sphere is one mode. The loop on a sphere means “stay the same next step” (e.g., Sunny again tomorrow).
The arrows leaving a sphere show where things usually go next if they change (e.g., Sunny moving to Cloudy).
Some paths matter more than others. A more prominent loop means the current mode tends to persist. A more prominent outgoing arrow means a change to that destination is the usual next step.
Direction isn’t symmetric: moving Sunny→Cloudy can behave differently than Cloudy→Sunny.
Now relabel the spheres to markets: Bull, Bear, Neutral.
Spheres: market regimes (uptrend, downtrend, range).
Self‑loop: tendency for the current regime to continue on the next bar.
Arrows: the most common next regime if a switch happens.
How to read: Start at the sphere that matches current bar state. If the loop stands out, expect continuation. If one outgoing path stands out, that switch is the typical next step. Opposite directions can differ (Bear→Neutral doesn’t have to match Neutral→Bear).
What states and transitions are shown?
The three market states visualized are:
Bullish (Bull): Upward or strong-market regime.
Bearish (Bear): Downward or weak-market regime.
Neutral: Sideways or range-bound regime.
Bidirectional animated arrows and probability labels show how likely the market is to move from one regime to another (e.g., Bull → Bear or Neutral → Bull).
How does the regime detection system work?
You can use either built-in price returns (based on adaptive Z-score normalization) or supply three custom indicators (such as volume, oscillators, etc.).
Values are statistically normalized (Z-scored) over a configurable lookback period.
The normalized outputs are classified into Bull, Bear, or Neutral zones.
If using three indicators, their regime signals are averaged and smoothed for robustness.
How are transition probabilities calculated?
On every confirmed bar, the algorithm tracks the sequence of detected market states, then builds a rolling window of transitions.
The code maintains a transition count matrix for all regime pairs (e.g., Bull → Bear).
Transition probabilities are extracted for each possible state change using Laplace smoothing for numerical stability, and frequently updated in real-time.
What is unique about the visualization?
3D animated spheres represent each regime and change visually when active.
Animated, bidirectional arrows reveal transition probabilities and allow you to see both dominant and less likely regime flows.
Particles (moving dots) animate along the arrows, enhancing the perception of regime flow direction and speed.
All elements dynamically update with each new price bar, providing a live market map in an intuitive, engaging format.
Can I use custom indicators for regime classification?
Yes! Enable the "Custom Indicators" switch and select any three chart series as inputs. These will be normalized and combined (each with equal weight), broadening the regime classification beyond just price-based movement.
What does the “Lookback Period” control?
Lookback Period (default: 100) sets how much historical data builds the probability matrix. Shorter periods adapt faster to regime changes but may be noisier. Longer periods are more stable but slower to adapt.
How is this different from a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)?
It sets the window for both regime detection and probability calculations. Lower values make the system more reactive, but potentially noisier. Higher values smooth estimates and make the system more robust.
How is this Markov Chain different from a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)?
Markov Chain (as here): All market regimes (Bull, Bear, Neutral) are directly observable on the chart. The transition matrix is built from actual detected regimes, keeping the model simple and interpretable.
Hidden Markov Model: The actual regimes are unobservable ("hidden") and must be inferred from market output or indicator "emissions" using statistical learning algorithms. HMMs are more complex, can capture more subtle structure, but are harder to visualize and require additional machine learning steps for training.
A standard Markov Chain models transitions between observable states using a simple transition matrix, while a Hidden Markov Model assumes the true states are hidden (latent) and must be inferred from observable “emissions” like price or volume data. In practical terms, a Markov Chain is transparent and easier to implement and interpret; an HMM is more expressive but requires statistical inference to estimate hidden states from data.
Markov Chain: states are observable; you directly count or estimate transition probabilities between visible states. This makes it simpler, faster, and easier to validate and tune.
HMM: states are hidden; you only observe emissions generated by those latent states. Learning involves machine learning/statistical algorithms (commonly Baum–Welch/EM for training and Viterbi for decoding) to infer both the transition dynamics and the most likely hidden state sequence from data.
How does the indicator avoid “repainting” or look-ahead bias?
All regime changes and matrix updates happen only on confirmed (closed) bars, so no future data is leaked, ensuring reliable real-time operation.
Are there practical tuning tips?
Tune the Lookback Period for your asset/timeframe: shorter for fast markets, longer for stability.
Use custom indicators if your asset has unique regime drivers.
Watch for rapid changes in transition probabilities as early warning of a possible regime shift.
Who is this indicator for?
Quants and quantitative researchers exploring probabilistic market modeling, especially those interested in regime-switching dynamics and Markov models.
Programmers and system developers who need a probabilistic regime filter for systematic and algorithmic backtesting:
The Markov Chain indicator is ideally suited for programmatic integration via its bias output (1 = Bull, 0 = Neutral, -1 = Bear).
Although the visualization is engaging, the core output is designed for automated, rules-based workflows—not for discretionary/manual trading decisions.
Developers can connect the indicator’s output directly to their Pine Script logic (using input.source()), allowing rapid and robust backtesting of regime-based strategies.
It acts as a plug-and-play regime filter: simply plug the bias output into your entry/exit logic, and you have a scientifically robust, probabilistically-derived signal for filtering, timing, position sizing, or risk regimes.
The MC's output is intentionally "trinary" (1/0/-1), focusing on clear regime states for unambiguous decision-making in code. If you require nuanced, multi-probability or soft-label state vectors, consider expanding the indicator or stacking it with a probability-weighted logic layer in your scripting.
Because it avoids subjectivity, this approach is optimal for systematic quants, algo developers building backtested, repeatable strategies based on probabilistic regime analysis.
What's the mathematical foundation behind this?
The mathematical foundation behind this Markov Chain indicator—and probabilistic regime detection in finance—draws from two principal models: the (standard) Markov Chain and the Hidden Markov Model (HMM).
How to use this indicator programmatically?
The Markov Chain indicator automatically exports a bias value (+1 for Bullish, -1 for Bearish, 0 for Neutral) as a plot visible in the Data Window. This allows you to integrate its regime signal into your own scripts and strategies for backtesting, automation, or live trading.
Step-by-Step Integration with Pine Script (input.source)
Add the Markov Chain indicator to your chart.
This must be done first, since your custom script will "pull" the bias signal from the indicator's plot.
In your strategy, create an input using input.source()
Example:
//@version=5
strategy("MC Bias Strategy Example")
mcBias = input.source(close, "MC Bias Source")
After saving, go to your script’s settings. For the “MC Bias Source” input, select the plot/output of the Markov Chain indicator (typically its bias plot).
Use the bias in your trading logic
Example (long only on Bull, flat otherwise):
if mcBias == 1
strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long)
else
strategy.close("Long")
For more advanced workflows, combine mcBias with additional filters or trailing stops.
How does this work behind-the-scenes?
TradingView’s input.source() lets you use any plot from another indicator as a real-time, “live” data feed in your own script (source).
The selected bias signal is available to your Pine code as a variable, enabling logical decisions based on regime (trend-following, mean-reversion, etc.).
This enables powerful strategy modularity : decouple regime detection from entry/exit logic, allowing fast experimentation without rewriting core signal code.
Integrating 45+ Indicators with Your Markov Chain — How & Why
The Enhanced Custom Indicators Export script exports a massive suite of over 45 technical indicators—ranging from classic momentum (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, etc.) to trend, volume, volatility, and oscillator tools—all pre-calculated, centered/scaled, and available as plots.
// Enhanced Custom Indicators Export - 45 Technical Indicators
// Comprehensive technical analysis suite for advanced market regime detection
//@version=6
indicator('Enhanced Custom Indicators Export | Fractalyst', shorttitle='Enhanced CI Export', overlay=false, scale=scale.right, max_labels_count=500, max_lines_count=500)
// |----- Input Parameters -----| //
momentum_group = "Momentum Indicators"
trend_group = "Trend Indicators"
volume_group = "Volume Indicators"
volatility_group = "Volatility Indicators"
oscillator_group = "Oscillator Indicators"
display_group = "Display Settings"
// Common lengths
length_14 = input.int(14, "Standard Length (14)", minval=1, maxval=100, group=momentum_group)
length_20 = input.int(20, "Medium Length (20)", minval=1, maxval=200, group=trend_group)
length_50 = input.int(50, "Long Length (50)", minval=1, maxval=200, group=trend_group)
// Display options
show_table = input.bool(true, "Show Values Table", group=display_group)
table_size = input.string("Small", "Table Size", options= , group=display_group)
// |----- MOMENTUM INDICATORS (15 indicators) -----| //
// 1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
rsi_14 = ta.rsi(close, length_14)
rsi_centered = rsi_14 - 50
// 2. Stochastic Oscillator
stoch_k = ta.stoch(close, high, low, length_14)
stoch_d = ta.sma(stoch_k, 3)
stoch_centered = stoch_k - 50
// 3. Williams %R
williams_r = ta.stoch(close, high, low, length_14) - 100
// 4. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
= ta.macd(close, 12, 26, 9)
// 5. Momentum (Rate of Change)
momentum = ta.mom(close, length_14)
momentum_pct = (momentum / close ) * 100
// 6. Rate of Change (ROC)
roc = ta.roc(close, length_14)
// 7. Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
cci = ta.cci(close, length_20)
// 8. Money Flow Index (MFI)
mfi = ta.mfi(close, length_14)
mfi_centered = mfi - 50
// 9. Awesome Oscillator (AO)
ao = ta.sma(hl2, 5) - ta.sma(hl2, 34)
// 10. Accelerator Oscillator (AC)
ac = ao - ta.sma(ao, 5)
// 11. Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO)
cmo = ta.cmo(close, length_14)
// 12. Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO)
dpo = close - ta.sma(close, length_20)
// 13. Price Oscillator (PPO)
ppo = ta.sma(close, 12) - ta.sma(close, 26)
ppo_pct = (ppo / ta.sma(close, 26)) * 100
// 14. TRIX
trix_ema1 = ta.ema(close, length_14)
trix_ema2 = ta.ema(trix_ema1, length_14)
trix_ema3 = ta.ema(trix_ema2, length_14)
trix = ta.roc(trix_ema3, 1) * 10000
// 15. Klinger Oscillator
klinger = ta.ema(volume * (high + low + close) / 3, 34) - ta.ema(volume * (high + low + close) / 3, 55)
// 16. Fisher Transform
fisher_hl2 = 0.5 * (hl2 - ta.lowest(hl2, 10)) / (ta.highest(hl2, 10) - ta.lowest(hl2, 10)) - 0.25
fisher = 0.5 * math.log((1 + fisher_hl2) / (1 - fisher_hl2))
// 17. Stochastic RSI
stoch_rsi = ta.stoch(rsi_14, rsi_14, rsi_14, length_14)
stoch_rsi_centered = stoch_rsi - 50
// 18. Relative Vigor Index (RVI)
rvi_num = ta.swma(close - open)
rvi_den = ta.swma(high - low)
rvi = rvi_den != 0 ? rvi_num / rvi_den : 0
// 19. Balance of Power (BOP)
bop = (close - open) / (high - low)
// |----- TREND INDICATORS (10 indicators) -----| //
// 20. Simple Moving Average Momentum
sma_20 = ta.sma(close, length_20)
sma_momentum = ((close - sma_20) / sma_20) * 100
// 21. Exponential Moving Average Momentum
ema_20 = ta.ema(close, length_20)
ema_momentum = ((close - ema_20) / ema_20) * 100
// 22. Parabolic SAR
sar = ta.sar(0.02, 0.02, 0.2)
sar_trend = close > sar ? 1 : -1
// 23. Linear Regression Slope
lr_slope = ta.linreg(close, length_20, 0) - ta.linreg(close, length_20, 1)
// 24. Moving Average Convergence (MAC)
mac = ta.sma(close, 10) - ta.sma(close, 30)
// 25. Trend Intensity Index (TII)
tii_sum = 0.0
for i = 1 to length_20
tii_sum += close > close ? 1 : 0
tii = (tii_sum / length_20) * 100
// 26. Ichimoku Cloud Components
ichimoku_tenkan = (ta.highest(high, 9) + ta.lowest(low, 9)) / 2
ichimoku_kijun = (ta.highest(high, 26) + ta.lowest(low, 26)) / 2
ichimoku_signal = ichimoku_tenkan > ichimoku_kijun ? 1 : -1
// 27. MESA Adaptive Moving Average (MAMA)
mama_alpha = 2.0 / (length_20 + 1)
mama = ta.ema(close, length_20)
mama_momentum = ((close - mama) / mama) * 100
// 28. Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLEMA)
zlema_lag = math.round((length_20 - 1) / 2)
zlema_data = close + (close - close )
zlema = ta.ema(zlema_data, length_20)
zlema_momentum = ((close - zlema) / zlema) * 100
// |----- VOLUME INDICATORS (6 indicators) -----| //
// 29. On-Balance Volume (OBV)
obv = ta.obv
// 30. Volume Rate of Change (VROC)
vroc = ta.roc(volume, length_14)
// 31. Price Volume Trend (PVT)
pvt = ta.pvt
// 32. Negative Volume Index (NVI)
nvi = 0.0
nvi := volume < volume ? nvi + ((close - close ) / close ) * nvi : nvi
// 33. Positive Volume Index (PVI)
pvi = 0.0
pvi := volume > volume ? pvi + ((close - close ) / close ) * pvi : pvi
// 34. Volume Oscillator
vol_osc = ta.sma(volume, 5) - ta.sma(volume, 10)
// 35. Ease of Movement (EOM)
eom_distance = high - low
eom_box_height = volume / 1000000
eom = eom_box_height != 0 ? eom_distance / eom_box_height : 0
eom_sma = ta.sma(eom, length_14)
// 36. Force Index
force_index = volume * (close - close )
force_index_sma = ta.sma(force_index, length_14)
// |----- VOLATILITY INDICATORS (10 indicators) -----| //
// 37. Average True Range (ATR)
atr = ta.atr(length_14)
atr_pct = (atr / close) * 100
// 38. Bollinger Bands Position
bb_basis = ta.sma(close, length_20)
bb_dev = 2.0 * ta.stdev(close, length_20)
bb_upper = bb_basis + bb_dev
bb_lower = bb_basis - bb_dev
bb_position = bb_dev != 0 ? (close - bb_basis) / bb_dev : 0
bb_width = bb_dev != 0 ? (bb_upper - bb_lower) / bb_basis * 100 : 0
// 39. Keltner Channels Position
kc_basis = ta.ema(close, length_20)
kc_range = ta.ema(ta.tr, length_20)
kc_upper = kc_basis + (2.0 * kc_range)
kc_lower = kc_basis - (2.0 * kc_range)
kc_position = kc_range != 0 ? (close - kc_basis) / kc_range : 0
// 40. Donchian Channels Position
dc_upper = ta.highest(high, length_20)
dc_lower = ta.lowest(low, length_20)
dc_basis = (dc_upper + dc_lower) / 2
dc_position = (dc_upper - dc_lower) != 0 ? (close - dc_basis) / (dc_upper - dc_lower) : 0
// 41. Standard Deviation
std_dev = ta.stdev(close, length_20)
std_dev_pct = (std_dev / close) * 100
// 42. Relative Volatility Index (RVI)
rvi_up = ta.stdev(close > close ? close : 0, length_14)
rvi_down = ta.stdev(close < close ? close : 0, length_14)
rvi_total = rvi_up + rvi_down
rvi_volatility = rvi_total != 0 ? (rvi_up / rvi_total) * 100 : 50
// 43. Historical Volatility
hv_returns = math.log(close / close )
hv = ta.stdev(hv_returns, length_20) * math.sqrt(252) * 100
// 44. Garman-Klass Volatility
gk_vol = math.log(high/low) * math.log(high/low) - (2*math.log(2)-1) * math.log(close/open) * math.log(close/open)
gk_volatility = math.sqrt(ta.sma(gk_vol, length_20)) * 100
// 45. Parkinson Volatility
park_vol = math.log(high/low) * math.log(high/low)
parkinson = math.sqrt(ta.sma(park_vol, length_20) / (4 * math.log(2))) * 100
// 46. Rogers-Satchell Volatility
rs_vol = math.log(high/close) * math.log(high/open) + math.log(low/close) * math.log(low/open)
rogers_satchell = math.sqrt(ta.sma(rs_vol, length_20)) * 100
// |----- OSCILLATOR INDICATORS (5 indicators) -----| //
// 47. Elder Ray Index
elder_bull = high - ta.ema(close, 13)
elder_bear = low - ta.ema(close, 13)
elder_power = elder_bull + elder_bear
// 48. Schaff Trend Cycle (STC)
stc_macd = ta.ema(close, 23) - ta.ema(close, 50)
stc_k = ta.stoch(stc_macd, stc_macd, stc_macd, 10)
stc_d = ta.ema(stc_k, 3)
stc = ta.stoch(stc_d, stc_d, stc_d, 10)
// 49. Coppock Curve
coppock_roc1 = ta.roc(close, 14)
coppock_roc2 = ta.roc(close, 11)
coppock = ta.wma(coppock_roc1 + coppock_roc2, 10)
// 50. Know Sure Thing (KST)
kst_roc1 = ta.roc(close, 10)
kst_roc2 = ta.roc(close, 15)
kst_roc3 = ta.roc(close, 20)
kst_roc4 = ta.roc(close, 30)
kst = ta.sma(kst_roc1, 10) + 2*ta.sma(kst_roc2, 10) + 3*ta.sma(kst_roc3, 10) + 4*ta.sma(kst_roc4, 15)
// 51. Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
ppo_line = ((ta.ema(close, 12) - ta.ema(close, 26)) / ta.ema(close, 26)) * 100
ppo_signal = ta.ema(ppo_line, 9)
ppo_histogram = ppo_line - ppo_signal
// |----- PLOT MAIN INDICATORS -----| //
// Plot key momentum indicators
plot(rsi_centered, title="01_RSI_Centered", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
plot(stoch_centered, title="02_Stoch_Centered", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(williams_r, title="03_Williams_R", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(macd_histogram, title="04_MACD_Histogram", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(cci, title="05_CCI", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
// Plot trend indicators
plot(sma_momentum, title="06_SMA_Momentum", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(ema_momentum, title="07_EMA_Momentum", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
plot(sar_trend, title="08_SAR_Trend", color=color.teal, linewidth=1)
plot(lr_slope, title="09_LR_Slope", color=color.lime, linewidth=1)
plot(mac, title="10_MAC", color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=1)
// Plot volatility indicators
plot(atr_pct, title="11_ATR_Pct", color=color.yellow, linewidth=1)
plot(bb_position, title="12_BB_Position", color=color.aqua, linewidth=1)
plot(kc_position, title="13_KC_Position", color=color.olive, linewidth=1)
plot(std_dev_pct, title="14_StdDev_Pct", color=color.silver, linewidth=1)
plot(bb_width, title="15_BB_Width", color=color.gray, linewidth=1)
// Plot volume indicators
plot(vroc, title="16_VROC", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(eom_sma, title="17_EOM", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(vol_osc, title="18_Vol_Osc", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
plot(force_index_sma, title="19_Force_Index", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(obv, title="20_OBV", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
// Plot additional oscillators
plot(ao, title="21_Awesome_Osc", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(cmo, title="22_CMO", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
plot(dpo, title="23_DPO", color=color.teal, linewidth=1)
plot(trix, title="24_TRIX", color=color.lime, linewidth=1)
plot(fisher, title="25_Fisher", color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=1)
// Plot more momentum indicators
plot(mfi_centered, title="26_MFI_Centered", color=color.yellow, linewidth=1)
plot(ac, title="27_AC", color=color.aqua, linewidth=1)
plot(ppo_pct, title="28_PPO_Pct", color=color.olive, linewidth=1)
plot(stoch_rsi_centered, title="29_StochRSI_Centered", color=color.silver, linewidth=1)
plot(klinger, title="30_Klinger", color=color.gray, linewidth=1)
// Plot trend continuation
plot(tii, title="31_TII", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(ichimoku_signal, title="32_Ichimoku_Signal", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(mama_momentum, title="33_MAMA_Momentum", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
plot(zlema_momentum, title="34_ZLEMA_Momentum", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(bop, title="35_BOP", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
// Plot volume continuation
plot(nvi, title="36_NVI", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(pvi, title="37_PVI", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
plot(momentum_pct, title="38_Momentum_Pct", color=color.teal, linewidth=1)
plot(roc, title="39_ROC", color=color.lime, linewidth=1)
plot(rvi, title="40_RVI", color=color.fuchsia, linewidth=1)
// Plot volatility continuation
plot(dc_position, title="41_DC_Position", color=color.yellow, linewidth=1)
plot(rvi_volatility, title="42_RVI_Volatility", color=color.aqua, linewidth=1)
plot(hv, title="43_Historical_Vol", color=color.olive, linewidth=1)
plot(gk_volatility, title="44_GK_Volatility", color=color.silver, linewidth=1)
plot(parkinson, title="45_Parkinson_Vol", color=color.gray, linewidth=1)
// Plot final oscillators
plot(rogers_satchell, title="46_RS_Volatility", color=color.blue, linewidth=1)
plot(elder_power, title="47_Elder_Power", color=color.red, linewidth=1)
plot(stc, title="48_STC", color=color.green, linewidth=1)
plot(coppock, title="49_Coppock", color=color.orange, linewidth=1)
plot(kst, title="50_KST", color=color.purple, linewidth=1)
// Plot final indicators
plot(ppo_histogram, title="51_PPO_Histogram", color=color.navy, linewidth=1)
plot(pvt, title="52_PVT", color=color.maroon, linewidth=1)
// |----- Reference Lines -----| //
hline(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dashed, linewidth=1)
hline(50, "Midline", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
hline(-50, "Lower Midline", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
hline(25, "Upper Threshold", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
hline(-25, "Lower Threshold", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted, linewidth=1)
// |----- Enhanced Information Table -----| //
if show_table and barstate.islast
table_position = position.top_right
table_text_size = table_size == "Tiny" ? size.tiny : table_size == "Small" ? size.small : size.normal
var table info_table = table.new(table_position, 3, 18, bgcolor=color.new(color.white, 85), border_width=1, border_color=color.gray)
// Headers
table.cell(info_table, 0, 0, 'Category', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 70))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 0, 'Indicator', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 70))
table.cell(info_table, 2, 0, 'Value', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 70))
// Key Momentum Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 1, 'MOMENTUM', text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.purple, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 1, 'RSI Centered', text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 1, str.tostring(rsi_centered, '0.00'), text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 2, '', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 2, 'Stoch Centered', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 2, str.tostring(stoch_centered, '0.00'), text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 3, '', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 3, 'Williams %R', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 3, str.tostring(williams_r, '0.00'), text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 4, '', text_color=color.orange, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 4, 'MACD Histogram', text_color=color.orange, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 4, str.tostring(macd_histogram, '0.000'), text_color=color.orange, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 5, '', text_color=color.green, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 5, 'CCI', text_color=color.green, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 5, str.tostring(cci, '0.00'), text_color=color.green, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Trend Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 6, 'TREND', text_color=color.navy, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.navy, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 6, 'SMA Momentum %', text_color=color.navy, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 6, str.tostring(sma_momentum, '0.00'), text_color=color.navy, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 7, '', text_color=color.maroon, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 7, 'EMA Momentum %', text_color=color.maroon, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 7, str.tostring(ema_momentum, '0.00'), text_color=color.maroon, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 8, '', text_color=color.teal, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 8, 'SAR Trend', text_color=color.teal, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 8, str.tostring(sar_trend, '0'), text_color=color.teal, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 9, '', text_color=color.lime, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 9, 'Linear Regression', text_color=color.lime, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 9, str.tostring(lr_slope, '0.000'), text_color=color.lime, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Volatility Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 10, 'VOLATILITY', text_color=color.yellow, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.yellow, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 10, 'ATR %', text_color=color.yellow, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 10, str.tostring(atr_pct, '0.00'), text_color=color.yellow, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 11, '', text_color=color.aqua, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 11, 'BB Position', text_color=color.aqua, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 11, str.tostring(bb_position, '0.00'), text_color=color.aqua, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 12, '', text_color=color.olive, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 12, 'KC Position', text_color=color.olive, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 12, str.tostring(kc_position, '0.00'), text_color=color.olive, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Volume Indicators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 13, 'VOLUME', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.blue, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 13, 'Volume ROC', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 13, str.tostring(vroc, '0.00'), text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 14, '', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 14, 'EOM', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 14, str.tostring(eom_sma, '0.000'), text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
// Key Oscillators
table.cell(info_table, 0, 15, 'OSCILLATORS', text_color=color.purple, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.purple, 90))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 15, 'Awesome Osc', text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 15, str.tostring(ao, '0.000'), text_color=color.blue, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 0, 16, '', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 1, 16, 'Fisher Transform', text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
table.cell(info_table, 2, 16, str.tostring(fisher, '0.000'), text_color=color.red, text_size=table_text_size)
// Summary Statistics
table.cell(info_table, 0, 17, 'SUMMARY', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size, bgcolor=color.new(color.gray, 70))
table.cell(info_table, 1, 17, 'Total Indicators: 52', text_color=color.black, text_size=table_text_size)
regime_color = rsi_centered > 10 ? color.green : rsi_centered < -10 ? color.red : color.gray
regime_text = rsi_centered > 10 ? "BULLISH" : rsi_centered < -10 ? "BEARISH" : "NEUTRAL"
table.cell(info_table, 2, 17, regime_text, text_color=regime_color, text_size=table_text_size)
This makes it the perfect “indicator backbone” for quantitative and systematic traders who want to prototype, combine, and test new regime detection models—especially in combination with the Markov Chain indicator.
How to use this script with the Markov Chain for research and backtesting:
Add the Enhanced Indicator Export to your chart.
Every calculated indicator is available as an individual data stream.
Connect the indicator(s) you want as custom input(s) to the Markov Chain’s “Custom Indicators” option.
In the Markov Chain indicator’s settings, turn ON the custom indicator mode.
For each of the three custom indicator inputs, select the exported plot from the Enhanced Export script—the menu lists all 45+ signals by name.
This creates a powerful, modular regime-detection engine where you can mix-and-match momentum, trend, volume, or custom combinations for advanced filtering.
Backtest regime logic directly.
Once you’ve connected your chosen indicators, the Markov Chain script performs regime detection (Bull/Neutral/Bear) based on your selected features—not just price returns.
The regime detection is robust, automatically normalized (using Z-score), and outputs bias (1, -1, 0) for plug-and-play integration.
Export the regime bias for programmatic use.
As described above, use input.source() in your Pine Script strategy or system and link the bias output.
You can now filter signals, control trade direction/size, or design pairs-trading that respect true, indicator-driven market regimes.
With this framework, you’re not limited to static or simplistic regime filters. You can rigorously define, test, and refine what “market regime” means for your strategies—using the technical features that matter most to you.
Optimize your signal generation by backtesting across a universe of meaningful indicator blends.
Enhance risk management with objective, real-time regime boundaries.
Accelerate your research: iterate quickly, swap indicator components, and see results with minimal code changes.
Automate multi-asset or pairs-trading by integrating regime context directly into strategy logic.
Add both scripts to your chart, connect your preferred features, and start investigating your best regime-based trades—entirely within the TradingView ecosystem.
References & Further Reading
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2002). “Regime Switches in Interest Rates.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(2), 163–182.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.” Econometrica, 57(2), 357–384.
Markov, A. A. (1906). "Extension of the Limit Theorems of Probability Theory to a Sum of Variables Connected in a Chain." The Notes of the Imperial Academy of Sciences of St. Petersburg.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). “Asset Allocation under Multivariate Regime Switching.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503–3544.
Murphy, J. J. (1999). Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. New York Institute of Finance.
Brock, W., Lakonishok, J., & LeBaron, B. (1992). “Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns.” Journal of Finance, 47(5), 1731–1764.
Zucchini, W., MacDonald, I. L., & Langrock, R. (2017). Hidden Markov Models for Time Series: An Introduction Using R (2nd ed.). Chapman and Hall/CRC.
On Quantitative Finance and Markov Models:
Lo, A. W., & Hasanhodzic, J. (2009). The Heretics of Finance: Conversations with Leading Practitioners of Technical Analysis. Bloomberg Press.
Patterson, S. (2016). The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution. Penguin Press.
TradingView Pine Script Documentation: www.tradingview.com
TradingView Blog: “Use an Input From Another Indicator With Your Strategy” www.tradingview.com
GeeksforGeeks: “What is the Difference Between Markov Chains and Hidden Markov Models?” www.geeksforgeeks.org
What makes this indicator original and unique?
- On‑chart, real‑time Markov. The chain is drawn directly on your chart. You see the current regime, its tendency to stay (self‑loop), and the usual next step (arrows) as bars confirm.
- Source‑agnostic by design. The engine runs on any series you select via input.source() — price, your own oscillator, a composite score, anything you compute in the script.
- Automatic normalization + regime mapping. Different inputs live on different scales. The script standardizes your chosen source and maps it into clear regimes (e.g., Bull / Bear / Neutral) without you micromanaging thresholds each time.
- Rolling, bar‑by‑bar learning. Transition tendencies are computed from a rolling window of confirmed bars. What you see is exactly what the market did in that window.
- Fast experimentation. Switch the source, adjust the window, and the Markov view updates instantly. It’s a rapid way to test ideas and feel regime persistence/switch behavior.
Integrate your own signals (using input.source())
- In settings, choose the Source . This is powered by input.source() .
- Feed it price, an indicator you compute inside the script, or a custom composite series.
- The script will automatically normalize that series and process it through the Markov engine, mapping it to regimes and updating the on‑chart spheres/arrows in real time.
Credits:
Deep gratitude to @RicardoSantos for both the foundational Markov chain processing engine and inspiring open-source contributions, which made advanced probabilistic market modeling accessible to the TradingView community.
Special thanks to @Alien_Algorithms for the innovative and visually stunning 3D sphere logic that powers the indicator’s animated, regime-based visualization.
Disclaimer
This tool summarizes recent behavior. It is not financial advice and not a guarantee of future results.
ICT Killzones and Sessions W/ Silver Bullet + MacrosForex and Equity Session Tracker with Killzones, Silver Bullet, and Macro Times
This Pine Script indicator is a comprehensive timekeeping tool designed specifically for ICT traders using any time-based strategy. It helps you visualize and keep track of forex and equity session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours.
Features:
Session and Killzone Lines:
Green: London Open (LO)
White: New York (NY)
Orange: Australian (AU)
Purple: Asian (AS)
Includes AM and PM session markers.
Dotted/Striped Lines indicate overlapping kill zones within the session timeline.
Customization Options:
Display sessions and killzones in collapsed or full view.
Hide specific sessions or killzones based on your preferences.
Customize colors, texts, and sizes.
Option to hide drawings older than the current day.
Automatic Updates:
The indicator draws all lines and boxes at the start of a new day.
Automatically adjusts time-based boxes according to the New York timezone.
Killzone Time Windows (for indices):
London KZ: 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ: 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ: 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet Times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro Times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 09:10
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
Latest Update:
January 15:
Added option to automatically change text coloring based on the chart.
Included additional optional macro times per user request:
12:50 - 13:10
13:50 - 14:15
14:50 - 15:10
15:50 - 16:15
Usage:
To maximize your experience, minimize the pane where the script is drawn. This minimizes distractions while keeping the essential time markers visible. The script is designed to help traders by clearly annotating key trading periods without overwhelming their charts.
Originality and Justification:
This indicator uniquely integrates various time-based strategies essential for ICT traders. Unlike other indicators, it consolidates session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours into one comprehensive tool. This allows traders to have a clear and organized view of critical trading periods, facilitating better decision-making.
Credits:
This script incorporates open-source elements with significant improvements to enhance functionality and user experience.
Forex and Equity Session Tracker with Killzones, Silver Bullet, and Macro Times
This Pine Script indicator is a comprehensive timekeeping tool designed specifically for ICT traders using any time-based strategy. It helps you visualize and keep track of forex and equity session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours.
Features:
Session and Killzone Lines:
Green: London Open (LO)
White: New York (NY)
Orange: Australian (AU)
Purple: Asian (AS)
Includes AM and PM session markers.
Dotted/Striped Lines indicate overlapping kill zones within the session timeline.
Customization Options:
Display sessions and killzones in collapsed or full view.
Hide specific sessions or killzones based on your preferences.
Customize colors, texts, and sizes.
Option to hide drawings older than the current day.
Automatic Updates:
The indicator draws all lines and boxes at the start of a new day.
Automatically adjusts time-based boxes according to the New York timezone.
Killzone Time Windows (for indices):
London KZ: 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ: 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ: 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet Times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro Times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 09:10
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
Latest Update:
January 15:
Added option to automatically change text coloring based on the chart.
Included additional optional macro times per user request:
12:50 - 13:10
13:50 - 14:15
14:50 - 15:10
15:50 - 16:15
ICT Sessions and Kill Zones
What They Are:
ICT Sessions: These are specific times during the trading day when market activity is expected to be higher, such as the London Open, New York Open, and the Asian session.
Kill Zones: These are specific time windows within these sessions where the probability of significant price movements is higher. For example, the New York AM Kill Zone is typically from 8:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST.
How to Use Them:
Identify the Session: Determine which trading session you are in (London, New York, or Asian).
Focus on Kill Zones: Within that session, focus on the kill zones for potential trade setups. For instance, during the New York session, look for setups between 8:30 AM and 11:00 AM EST.
Silver Bullets
What They Are:
Silver Bullets: These are specific, high-probability trade setups that occur within the kill zones. They are designed to be "one shot, one kill" trades, meaning they aim for precise and effective entries and exits.
How to Use Them:
Time-Based Setup: Look for these setups within the designated kill zones. For example, between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM for the New York AM session .
Chart Analysis: Start with higher time frames like the 15-minute chart and then refine down to 5-minute and 1-minute charts to identify imbalances or specific patterns .
Macros
What They Are:
Macros: These are broader market conditions and trends that influence your trading decisions. They include understanding the overall market direction, seasonal tendencies, and the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports.
How to Use Them:
Understand Market Conditions: Be aware of the macroeconomic factors and market conditions that could affect price movements.
Seasonal Tendencies: Know the seasonal patterns that might influence the market direction.
COT Reports: Use the Commitment of Traders reports to understand the positioning of large traders and commercial hedgers .
Putting It All Together
Preparation: Understand the macro conditions and review the COT reports.
Session and Kill Zone: Identify the trading session and focus on the kill zones.
Silver Bullet Setup: Look for high-probability setups within the kill zones using refined chart analysis.
Execution: Execute the trade with precision, aiming for a "one shot, one kill" outcome.
By following these steps, you can effectively use ICT sessions, kill zones, silver bullets, and macros to enhance your trading strategy.
Usage:
To maximize your experience, shrink the pane where the script is drawn. This minimizes distractions while keeping the essential time markers visible. The script is designed to help traders by clearly annotating key trading periods without overwhelming their charts.
Originality and Justification:
This indicator uniquely integrates various time-based strategies essential for ICT traders. Unlike other indicators, it consolidates session times, kill zones, macro times, and silver bullet hours into one comprehensive tool. This allows traders to have a clear and organized view of critical trading periods, facilitating better decision-making.
Credits:
This script incorporates open-source elements with significant improvements to enhance functionality and user experience. All credit goes to itradesize for the SB + Macro boxes
Take Profit ModelThis Indicator allows you to define 9 Taking Profit levels between your floor price and a target price you define for 10 selectable Assets and tweak the levels to your preference. It does not do any fancy dynamic calculations, it just draws lines on the chart where you want them so that you have an easy reference for when to take profit (or not).
Example:
So, if your floor price for an asset is e.g. $10 and your target price is $110 (its up to you to define, who knows right, I do not have a crystal ball), You have a range of $100 where you can set your levels as follows
The first level is the Floor price you entered = $10
Formula: Level x (Target - Floor) + Floor = Take Profit level
Levels
0.1 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $20
0.2 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $30
0.3 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $40
0.4 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $50
0.5 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $60
0.6 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $70
0.7 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $80
0.8 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $90
0.9 x (110 - 10) + 10 = $100
And finally the last level is drawn for the target price
Target Price = $110
To change the settings, go to the cog icon of the Indicator, select the assets (Tickers) you have and next enter a value between 0 and 1 (as shown above) for each level, and if you want a different color. Instead of using 0.1-0.9 you e.g. can also use Fibonacci numbers like 0.235, 0.382, 0.618, 0.786 and disable (using the check mark) the rest of the levels. Experiment with this as you see fit.
Make sure that the chart you are looking at in TradingView is the same as you select in the indicator configuration e.g. COINBASE:BTCUSD should be selected as the chart as well as the Ticker in the configuration.
The Start date of the script is configurable (one date across all assets and levels)
The colors of the Levels is configurable (I am colorblind so go wild)
The standard values in the script are just examples, you need to determine the values that apply in your case and do your own research.
Your feedback is most welcome
维加斯双通道策略Vegas Channel Comprehensive Strategy Description
Strategy Overview
A comprehensive trading strategy based on the Vegas Dual Channel indicator, supporting dynamic position sizing and fund management. The strategy employs a multi-signal fusion mechanism including classic price crossover signals, breakout signals, and retest signals, combined with trend filtering, RSI+MACD filtering, and volume filtering to ensure signal reliability.
Core Features
Dynamic Position Sizing: Continue adding positions on same-direction signals, close all positions on opposite signals
Smart Take Profit/Stop Loss: ATR-based dynamic TP/SL, updated with each new signal
Fund Management: Supports dynamic total amount management for compound growth
Time Filtering: Configurable trading time ranges
Risk Control: Maximum order limit to prevent over-leveraging
Leverage Usage Instructions
Important: This strategy does not use TradingView's margin functionality
Setup Method
Total Amount = Actual Funds × Leverage Multiplier
Example: Have 100U actual funds, want to use 10x leverage → Set total amount to 100 × 10 = 1000U
Trading Amount Calculation
Each trade percentage is calculated based on leveraged amount
Example: Set 10% → Actually trade 100U margin × 10x leverage = 1000U trading amount
Maximum Orders Configuration
Must be used in conjunction with leveraged amount
Example: 1000U total amount, 10% per trade, maximum 10 orders = maximum use of 1000U
Note: Do not exceed 100% of total amount to avoid over-leveraging
Parameter Configuration Recommendations
Leverage Configuration Examples
Actual funds 100U, 5x leverage, total amount setting 500U, 10% per trade, 50U per trade, recommended maximum orders 10
Actual funds 100U, 10x leverage, total amount setting 1000U, 10% per trade, 100U per trade, recommended maximum orders 10
Actual funds 100U, 20x leverage, total amount setting 2000U, 5% per trade, 100U per trade, recommended maximum orders 20
Risk Control
Conservative: 5-10x leverage, 10% per trade, maximum 5-8 orders
Aggressive: 10-20x leverage, 5-10% per trade, maximum 10-15 orders
Extreme: 20x+ leverage, 2-5% per trade, maximum 20+ orders
Strategy Advantages
Signal Reliability: Multiple filtering mechanisms reduce false signals
Capital Efficiency: Dynamic fund management for compound growth
Risk Controllable: Maximum order limits prevent liquidation
Flexible Configuration: Supports various leverage and fund allocation schemes
Time Control: Configurable trading hours to avoid high-risk periods
Usage Notes
Ensure total amount is set correctly (actual funds × leverage multiplier)
Maximum orders should not exceed the range allowed by total funds
Recommend starting with conservative configuration and gradually adjusting parameters
Regularly monitor strategy performance and adjust parameters timely
维加斯通道综合策略说明
策略概述
基于维加斯双通道指标的综合交易策略，支持动态加仓和资金管理。策略采用多信号融合机制，包括经典价穿信号、突破信号和回踩信号，结合趋势过滤、RSI+MACD过滤和成交量过滤，确保信号的可靠性。
核心功能
动态加仓：同向信号继续加仓，反向信号全部平仓
智能止盈止损：基于ATR的动态止盈止损，每次新信号更新
资金管理：支持动态总金额管理，实现复利增长
时间过滤：可设置交易时间范围
风险控制：最大订单数限制，防止过度加仓
杠杆使用说明
重要：本策略不使用TradingView的保证金功能
设置方法
总资金 = 实际资金 × 杠杆倍数
示例：实际有100U，想使用10倍杠杆 → 总资金设置为 100 × 10 = 1000U
交易金额计算
每笔交易百分比基于杠杆后的金额计算
示例：设置10% → 实际交易 100U保证金 × 10倍杠杆 = 1000U交易金额
最大订单数配置
必须配合杠杆后的金额使用
示例：1000U总资金，10%单笔，最大10单 = 最多使用1000U
注意：不要超过总资金的100%，避免过度杠杆
参数配置建议
杠杆配置示例
实际资金100U，5倍杠杆，总资金设置500U，单笔百分比10%，单笔金额50U，建议最大订单数10单
实际资金100U，10倍杠杆，总资金设置1000U，单笔百分比10%，单笔金额100U，建议最大订单数10单
实际资金100U，20倍杠杆，总资金设置2000U，单笔百分比5%，单笔金额100U，建议最大订单数20单
风险控制
保守型：5-10倍杠杆，10%单笔，最大5-8单
激进型：10-20倍杠杆，5-10%单笔，最大10-15单
极限型：20倍以上杠杆，2-5%单笔，最大20单以上
策略优势
信号可靠性：多重过滤机制，减少假信号
资金效率：动态资金管理，实现复利增长
风险可控：最大订单数限制，防止爆仓
灵活配置：支持多种杠杆和资金配置方案
时间控制：可设置交易时间，避开高风险时段
使用注意事项
确保总资金设置正确（实际资金×杠杆倍数）
最大订单数不要超过总资金允许的范围
建议从保守配置开始，逐步调整参数
定期监控策略表现，及时调整参数
Stochastic [Paifc0de]Stochastic — clean stochastic oscillator with visual masking, neutral markers, and basic filters
What it does
This indicator plots a standard stochastic oscillator (%K with smoothing and %D) and adds practical quality-of-life features for lower timeframes: optional visual masking when %K hugs overbought/oversold, neutral K–D cross markers, session-gated edge triangles (K crossing 20/80), and simple filters (minimum %K slope, minimum |K–D| gap, optional %D slope agreement, mid-zone mute, and a cooldown between markers). Display values are clamped to 0–100 to keep the panel scale stable. The tool is for research/education and does not generate entries/exits or financial advice.
Default preset: 20 / 10 / 10
K Length = 20
Classic lookback used in many textbooks. On intraday charts it balances responsiveness and stability: short enough to react to momentum shifts, long enough to avoid constant whipsaws. In practice it captures ~the last 20 bars’ position of close within the high–low range.
K Smoothing = 10
A 10-period SMA applied to the raw %K moderates the “saw-tooth” effect that raw stochastic can exhibit in choppy phases. The smoothing reduces over-reaction to micro spikes while preserving the main rhythm of swings; visually, %K becomes a continuous path that is easier to read.
D Length = 10
%D is the moving average of smoothed %K. With 10, %D becomes a clearly slower guide line. The larger separation between %K(10-SMA) and %D(10-SMA of %K) produces cleaner crosses and fewer spurious toggles than micro settings (e.g., 3/3/3). On M5–M15 this pair often yields readable cross cycles without flooding the chart.
How the 20/10/10 trio behaves
In persistent trends, %K will spend more time near 20 or 80; the 10-period smoothing delays flips slightly and emphasizes only meaningful turn attempts.
In ranges, %K oscillates around mid-zone (40–60). With 10/10 smoothing, cross signals cluster less densely; combining with the |K–D| gap filter helps keep only decisive crosses.
If your symbol is unusually volatile or illiquid, reduce K Length (e.g., 14) or reduce K Smoothing (e.g., 7) to keep responsiveness. If crosses feel late, decrease D Length (e.g., 7). If noise is excessive, increase K Smoothing first, then consider raising D Length.
Visuals
OB/OS lines: default 80/20 reference levels and a midline at 50.
Masking near edges: %K can be temporarily hidden when it is pressing an edge, approaching it with low slope, or going nearly flat near the boundary. This keeps the panel readable during “stuck at the edge” phases.
Soft glow (optional): highlights %K’s active path; can be turned off.
Light/Dark palette: quick toggle to match your chart theme.
Scale safety: all plotted values (lines, fills, markers) are clamped to 0–100 to prevent the axis from expanding beyond the stochastic range.
Markers and filters
Neutral K–D cross markers: circles in the mid-zone when %K crosses %D.
Edge triangles: show when %K crosses 20 or 80; can be restricted to a session window (02:00–12:00 ET).
Filters (optional):
Min %K slope: require a minimum absolute slope so very flat crosses are ignored.
Min |K–D| gap: demand separation between lines at the cross moment.
%D slope agreement: keep crosses that align with %D’s direction.
Mid-zone mute: suppress crosses inside a user-defined 40–60 band (defaults).
Cooldown: minimum bars between successive markers.
Parameters (quick guide)
K Length / K Smoothing / D Length: core stochastic settings. Start with 20/10/10; tune K Smoothing first if you see too much jitter.
Overbought / Oversold (80/20): adjust for assets that tend to trend (raise to 85/15) or mean-revert (lower to 75/25).
Slope & gap filters: increase on very noisy symbols; reduce if you miss too many crosses.
Session window (triangles only): use if you want edge markers only during active hours.
Marker size and offset: cosmetic; they do not affect calculations.
Alerts
K–D Cross Up (filtered) and K–D Cross Down (filtered): fire when a cross passes your filters/cooldown.
Edge Up / Edge Down: fire when %K crosses the 20/80 levels.
All alerts confirm on bar close.
Notes & attribution
Original implementation and integration by Paifc0de; no third-party code is copied.
This indicator is for research/education and does not provide entries/exits or financial advice.
Time-Based Fair Value Gaps (FVG) with Inversions (iFVG)Overview
The Time-Based Fair Value Gaps (FVG) with Inversions (iFVG) (ICT/SMT) indicator is a specialized tool designed for traders using Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodologies. Inspired by LuxAlgo's Fair Value Gap indicator, this script introduces significant enhancements by integrating ICT principles, focusing on precise time-based FVG detection, inversion tracking, and retest signals tailored for institutional trading strategies. Unlike LuxAlgo’s general FVG approach, this indicator filters FVGs within customizable 10-minute windows aligned with ICT’s macro timeframes and incorporates ICT-specific concepts like mitigation, liquidity grabs, and session-based gap prioritization.
This tool is optimized for 1–5 minute charts, though probably best for 1 minute charts, identifying bullish and bearish FVGs, tracking their mitigation into inverted FVGs (iFVGs) as key support/resistance zones, and generating retest signals with customizable “Close” or “Wick” confirmation. Features like ATR-based filtering, optional FVG labels, mitigation removal, and session-specific FVG detection (e.g., first FVG in AM/PM sessions) make it a powerful tool for ICT traders.
Originality and Improvements
While inspired by LuxAlgo’s FVG indicator (credit to LuxAlgo for their foundational work), this script significantly extends the original concept by:
1. Time-Based FVG Detection: Unlike LuxAlgo’s continuous FVG identification, this script filters FVGs within user-defined 10-minute windows each hour (:00–:10, :10–:20, etc.), aligning with ICT’s emphasis on specific periods of institutional activity, such as hourly opens/closes or kill zones (e.g., New York 7:00–11:00 AM EST). This ensures FVGs are relevant to high-probability ICT setups.
2. Session-Specific First FVG Option: A unique feature allows traders to display only the first FVG in ICT-defined AM (9:30–10:00 AM EST) or PM (1:30–2:00 PM EST) sessions, reflecting ICT’s focus on initial market imbalances during key liquidity events.
3. ICT-Driven Mitigation and Inversion Logic: The script tracks FVG mitigation (when price closes through a gap) and converts mitigated FVGs into iFVGs, which serve as ICT-style support/resistance zones. This aligns with ICT’s view that mitigated gaps become critical reversal points, unlike LuxAlgo’s simpler gap display.
4. Customizable Retest Signals: Retest signals for iFVGs are configurable for “Close” (conservative, requiring candle body confirmation) or “Wick” (faster, using highs/lows), catering to ICT traders’ need for precise entry timing during liquidity grabs or Judas swings.
5. ATR Filtering and Mitigation Removal: An optional ATR filter ensures only significant FVGs are displayed, reducing noise, while mitigation removal declutters the chart by removing filled gaps, aligning with ICT’s principle that mitigated gaps lose relevance unless inverted.
6. Timezone and Timeframe Safeguards: A timezone offset setting aligns FVG detection with EST for ICT’s New York-centric strategies, and a timeframe warning alerts users to avoid ≥1-hour charts, ensuring accuracy in time-based filtering.
These enhancements make the script a distinct tool that builds on LuxAlgo’s foundation while offering ICT traders a tailored, high-precision solution.
How It Works
FVG Detection
FVGs are identified when a candle’s low is higher than the high of two candles prior (bullish FVG) or a candle’s high is lower than the low of two candles prior (bearish FVG). Detection is restricted to:
• User-selected 10-minute windows (e.g., :00–:10, :50–:60) to capture ICT-relevant periods like hourly transitions.
• AM/PM session first FVGs (if enabled), focusing on 9:30–10:00 AM or 1:30–2:00 PM EST for key market opens.
An optional ATR filter (default: 0.25× ATR) ensures only gaps larger than the threshold are displayed, prioritizing significant imbalances.
Mitigation and Inversion
When price closes through an FVG (e.g., below a bullish FVG’s bottom), the FVG is mitigated and becomes an iFVG, plotted as a support/resistance zone. iFVGs are critical in ICT for identifying reversal points where institutional orders accumulate.
Retest Signals
The script generates signals when price retests an iFVG:
• Close: Triggers when the candle body confirms the retest (conservative, lower noise).
• Wick: Triggers when the candle’s high/low touches the iFVG (faster, higher sensitivity). Signals are visualized with triangular markers (▲ for bullish, ▼ for bearish) and can trigger alerts.
Visualization
• FVGs: Displayed as colored boxes (green for bullish, red for bearish) with optional “Bull FVG”/“Bear FVG” labels.
• iFVGs: Shown as extended boxes with dashed midlines, limited to the user-defined number of recent zones (default: 5).
• Mitigation Removal: Mitigated FVGs/iFVGs are removed (if enabled) to keep the chart clean.
How to Use
Recommended Settings
• Timeframe: Use 1–5 minute charts for precision, avoiding ≥1-hour timeframes (a warning label appears if misconfigured).
• Time Windows: Enable :00–:10 and :50–:60 for hourly open/close FVGs, or use the “Show only 1st presented FVG” option for AM/PM session focus.
• ATR Filter: Keep enabled (multiplier 0.25–0.5) for significant gaps; disable on 1-minute charts for more FVGs during volatility.
• Signal Preference: Use “Close” for conservative entries, “Wick” for aggressive setups.
• Timezone Offset: Set to -5 for EST (or -4 for EDT) to align with ICT’s New York session.
Trading Strategy
1. Macro Timeframes: Focus on New York (7:00–11:00 AM EST) or London (2:00–5:00 AM EST) kill zones for high institutional activity.
2. FVG Entries: Trade bullish FVGs as support in uptrends or bearish FVGs as resistance in downtrends, especially in :00–:10 or :50–:60 windows.
3. iFVG Retests: Enter on retest signals (▲/▼) during liquidity grabs or Judas swings, using “Close” for confirmation or “Wick” for speed.
4. Session FVGs: Use the “Show only 1st presented FVG” option to target the first gap in AM/PM sessions, often tied to ICT’s market maker algorithms.
5. Risk Management: Combine with ICT concepts like order blocks or breaker blocks for confluence, and set stops beyond FVG/iFVG boundaries.
Alerts
Set alerts for:
• “Bullish FVG Detected”/“Bearish FVG Detected”: New FVGs in selected windows.
• “Bullish Signal”/“Bearish Signal”: iFVG retest confirmations.
Settings Description
• Show Last (1–100, default: 5): Number of recent iFVGs to display. Lower values reduce clutter.
• Show only 1st presented FVG : Limits FVGs to the first in 9:30–10:00 AM or 1:30–2:00 PM EST sessions (overrides time window checkboxes).
• Time Window Checkboxes: Enable/disable FVG detection in 10-minute windows (:00–:10, :10–:20, etc.). All enabled by default.
• Signal Preference: “Close” (default) or “Wick” for iFVG retest signals.
• Use ATR Filter: Enables ATR-based size filtering (default: true).
• ATR Multiplier (0–∞, default: 0.25): Sets FVG size threshold (higher values = larger gaps).
• Remove Mitigated FVGs: Removes filled FVGs/iFVGs (default: true).
• Show FVG Labels: Displays “Bull FVG”/“Bear FVG” labels (default: true).
• Timezone Offset (-12 to 12, default: -5): Aligns time windows with EST.
• Colors: Customize bullish (green), bearish (red), and midline (gray) colors.
Why Use This Indicator?
This indicator empowers ICT traders with a tool that goes beyond generic FVG detection, offering precise, time-filtered gaps and inversion tracking aligned with institutional trading principles. By focusing on ICT’s macro timeframes, session-specific imbalances, and customizable signal logic, it provides a clear edge for scalping, swing trading, or reversal setups in high-liquidity markets.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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Macros ICT KillZones [TradingFinder] Times & Price Trading Setup🔵 Introduction
ICT Macros, developed by Michael Huddleston, also known as ICT (Inner Circle Trader), is a powerful trading tool designed to help traders identify the best trading opportunities during key time intervals like the London and New York trading sessions.
For traders aiming to capitalize on market volatility, liquidity shifts, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG), understanding and using these critical time zones can significantly improve trading outcomes.
In today’s highly competitive financial markets, identifying the moments when the market is seeking buy-side or sell-side liquidity, or filling price imbalances, is essential for maximizing profitability.
The ICT Macros indicator is built on the renowned ICT time and price theory, which enables traders to track and leverage key market dynamics such as breaks of highs and lows, imbalances, and liquidity hunts.
This indicator automatically detects crucial market times and optimizes strategies for traders by highlighting the specific moments when price movements are most likely to occur. A standout feature of ICT Macros is its automatic adjustment for Daylight Saving Time (DST), ensuring that traders remain synced with the correct session times.
This means you can rely on accurate market timing without the need for manual updates, allowing you to focus on capturing profitable trades during critical timeframes.
🔵 How to Use
The ICT Macros indicator helps you capitalize on trading opportunities during key market moments, particularly when the market is breaking highs or lows, filling Fair Value Gaps (FVG), or addressing imbalances. This indicator is particularly beneficial for traders who seek to identify liquidity, market volatility, and price imbalances.
🟣 Sessions
London Sessions
London Macro 1 :
UTC Time : 06:33 to 07:00
New York Time : 02:33 to 03:00
London Macro 2 :
UTC Time : 08:03 to 08:30
New York Time : 04:03 to 04:30
New York Sessions
New York Macro AM 1 :
UTC Time : 12:50 to 13:10
New York Time : 08:50 to 09:10
New York Macro AM 2 :
UTC Time : 13:50 to 14:10
New York Time : 09:50 to 10:10
New York Macro AM 3 :
UTC Time : 14:50 to 15:10
New York Time : 10:50 to 11:10
New York Lunch Macro :
UTC Time : 15:50 to 16:10
New York Time : 11:50 to 12:10
New York PM Macro :
UTC Time : 17:10 to 17:40
New York Time : 13:10 to 13:40
New York Last Hour Macro :
UTC Time : 19:15 to 19:45
New York Time : 15:15 to 15:45
These time intervals adjust automatically based on Daylight Saving Time (DST), helping traders to enter or exit trades during key market moments when price volatility is high.
Below are the main applications of this tool and how to incorporate it into your trading strategies :
🟣 Combining ICT Macros with Trading Strategies
The ICT Macros indicator can easily be used in conjunction with various trading strategies. Two well-known strategies that can be combined with this indicator include:
ICT 2022 Trading Model : This model is designed based on identifying market liquidity, structural price changes, and Fair Value Gaps (FVG). By using ICT Macros, you can identify the key time intervals when the market is seeking liquidity, filling imbalances, or breaking through important highs and lows, allowing you to enter or exit trades at the right moment.
Silver Bullet Strategy : This strategy, which is built around liquidity hunting and rapid price movements, can work more accurately with the help of ICT Macros. The indicator pinpoints precise liquidity times, helping traders take advantage of market shifts caused by filling Fair Value Gaps or correcting imbalances.
🟣 Capitalizing on Price Volatility During Key Times
Large market algorithms often seek liquidity or fill Fair Value Gaps (FVG) during the intervals marked by ICT Macros. These periods are when price volatility increases, and traders can use these moments to enter or exit trades.
For example, if sell-side liquidity is drained and the market fills an imbalance, the price might move toward buy-side liquidity. By identifying these moments, which may also involve breaking a previous high or low, you can leverage rapid market fluctuations to your advantage.
🟣 Identifying Liquidity and Price Imbalances
One of the important uses of ICT Macros is identifying points where the market is seeking liquidity and correcting imbalances. You can determine high or low liquidity levels in the market before each ICT Macro, as well as Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and price imbalances that need to be filled, using them to adjust your trading strategy. This capability allows you to manage trades based on liquidity shifts or imbalance corrections without needing a bias toward a specific direction.
🔵 Settings
The ICT Macros indicator offers various customization options, allowing users to tailor it to their specific needs. Below are the main settings:
Time Zone Mode : You can select one of the following options to define how time is displayed:
UTC : For traders who need to work with Universal Time.
Session Local Time : The local time corresponding to the London or New York markets.
Your Time Zone : You can specify your own time zone (e.g., "UTC-4:00").
Your Time Zone : If you choose "Your Time Zone," you can set your specific time zone. By default, this is set to UTC-4:00.
Show Range Time : This option allows you to display the time range of each session on the chart. If enabled, the exact start and end times of each interval are shown.
Show or Hide Time Ranges : Toggle on/off for visual clarity depending on user preference.
Custom Colors : Set distinct colors for each session, allowing users to personalize their chart based on their trading style.These settings allow you to adjust the key time intervals of each trading session to your preference and customize the time format according to your own needs.
🔵 Conclusion
The ICT Macros indicator is a powerful tool for traders, helping them to identify key time intervals where the market seeks liquidity or fills Fair Value Gaps (FVG), corrects imbalances, and breaks highs or lows. This tool is especially valuable for traders using liquidity-based strategies such as ICT 2022 or Silver Bullet.
One of the key features of this indicator is its support for Daylight Saving Time (DST), ensuring you are always in sync with the correct trading session timings without manual adjustments. This is particularly beneficial for traders operating across different time zones.
With ICT Macros, you can capitalize on crucial market opportunities during sensitive times, take advantage of imbalances, and enhance your trading strategies based on market volatility, liquidity shifts, and Fair Value Gaps.
Market Sentiment Trend Gauge [LevelUp]Market Sentiment Trend Gauge simplifies technical analysis by mathematically combining momentum, trend direction, volatility position, and comparison against a market benchmark, into a single trend score from -100 to +100. Displayed in a separate pane below your chart, it resolves conflicting signals from RSI, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and market correlations, providing clear insights into trend direction, strength, and relative performance.
THE PROBLEM MARKET SENTIMENT TREND GAUGE (MSTG) SOLVES
Traditional indicators often produce conflicting signals, such as RSI showing overbought while prices rise or moving averages indicating an uptrend despite market underperformance. MSTG creates a weighted composite score to answer: "What's the overall bias for this asset?"
KEY COMPONENTS AND WEIGHTINGS
The trend score combines
▪ Momentum (25%): Normalized 14-period RSI, capped at ±100.
▪ Trend Direction (35%): 10/21-period EMA relationships,
▪ Volatility Position (20%): Price position, 20-period Bollinger Bands, capped at ±100.
▪ Market Comparison (20%): Daily performance vs. SPY benchmark, capped at ±100.
Final score = Weighted sum, smoothed with 5-period EMA.
INTERPRETING THE MSTG CHART
Trend Score Ranges and Colors
▪ Bright Green (>+30): Strong bullish; ideal for long entries.
▪ Light Green (+10 to +30): Weak bullish; cautiously favorable.
▪ Gray (-10 to +10): Neutral; avoid directional trades.
▪ Light Red (-10 to -30): Weak bearish; exercise caution.
▪ Bright Red (<-30): Strong bearish; high-risk for longs, consider shorts.
Reference Lines
▪ Zero Line (Gray): Separates bullish/bearish; crossovers signal trend changes.
▪ ±30 Lines (Dotted, Green/Red): Thresholds for strong trends.
▪ ±60 Lines (Dashed, Green/Red): Extreme strength zones (not overbought/oversold); manage risk (tighten stops, partial profits) but trends may persist.
Background Colors
▪ Green Tint (>+20): Bullish environment; favorable for longs.
▪ Red Tint (<-20): Bearish environment; caution for longs.
▪ Light Gray Tint (-20 to +20): Neutral/range-bound; wait for signals.
Extreme Readings vs. Traditional Signals
MSTG ±60 indicates maximum alignment of all factors, not reversals (unlike RSI >70/<30). Use for risk management, not automatic exits. Strong trends can sustain extremes; breakdowns occur below +30 or above -30.
INFORMATION TABLE INTERPRETATION
Trend Score Symbols
▲▲ >+30 strong bullish
▲ +10 to +30
● -10 to +10 neutral
▼ -30 to -10
▼▼ <-30 strong bearish
Colors: Green (positive), White (neutral), Red (negative).
Momentum Score
+40 to +100 strong bullish
0 to +40 moderate bullish
-40 to 0 moderate bearish
-100 to -40 strong bearish
Market vs. Stock
▪ Green: Stock outperforming market
▪ Red: Stock underperforming market
Example Interpretations:
-0.45% / +1.23% (Green): Market down, stock up = Strong relative strength
+2.10% / +1.50% (Red): Both rising, but stock lagging = Relative weakness
-1.20% / -0.80% (Green): Both falling, but stock declining less = Defensive strength
UNDERSTANDING EXTREME READINGS VS TRADITIONAL OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
⚠️ Critical distinctions
Traditional Overbought/Oversold Signals:
▪ Single indicator (like RSI >70 or <30) showing momentum excess
▪ Often suggests immediate reversal or pullback expected
▪ Based on "price moved too far, too fast" concept
MSTG Extreme Readings (±60):
▪ Composite alignment of 4 different factors (momentum, trend, volatility, relative strength)
▪ Indicates maximum strength in current direction
▪ NOT a reversal signal - means "all systems extremely bullish/bearish"
Key Differences:
▪ RSI >70: "Price got ahead of itself, expect pullback"
▪ MSTG >+60: "Everything is extremely bullish right now"
▪ Strong trends can maintain extreme MSTG readings during major moves
▪ Breakdowns happen when MSTG falls below +30, not at +60
Proper Usage of Extreme Readings:
▪ Risk Management: Tighten stops, take partial profits
▪ Position Sizing: Reduce new position sizes at extremes
▪ Trend Continuation: Watch for sustained extreme readings in strong markets
▪ Exit Signals: Look for breakdown below +30, not reversal from +60
TRADING WITH MSTG
Quick Assessment
1. Check trend symbol for direction.
2. Confirm momentum strength.
3. Note relative performance color.
Examples:
▲▲ 55.2 (Green), Momentum +28.4, Outperforming: Strong buy setup.
▼ -18.6 (Red), Momentum -43.2, Underperforming: Defensive positioning.
Entry Conditions
▪ Long: stock outperforming market
- Score >+30 (bright green)
- Sustained green background
- ▲▲ symbol,
▪ Short: stock underperforming market
- Score <-30 (bright red)
- Sustained red background
- ▼▼ symbol
Avoid Trading When:
▪ Gray zone (-10 to +10).
▪ Rapid color changes or frequent zero-line crosses (choppy market).
▪ Gray background (range-bound).
Risk Management:
▪ Stop Loss: Exit on zero-line crossover against position.
▪ Take Profit: Partial at ±60 for risk control.
▪ Position Sizing: Larger when signals align; smaller in extremes or mixed conditions.
KEY ADVANTAGES
▪ Unified View: Weighted composite reduces noise and conflicts.
▪ Visual Clarity: 5-color system with gradients for rapid recognition.
▪ Market Context: Relative strength vs. SPY identifies leaders/laggards.
▪ Flexibility: Works across timeframes (1-min to weekly); customizable table.
▪ Noise Reduction: EMA smoothing minimizes false signals.
EXAMPLES
Strong Bull: Trend Score 71.9, Momentum Score 76.9
Neutral: Trend Score 0.1, Momentum Score -9.2
Strong Bear: Trend Score -51.7, Momentum Score -51.5
PERFORMANCE AND LIMITATIONS
Strengths: Trend identification, noise reduction, relative performance versus market.
Limitations: Lags at turning points, less effective in extreme volatility or non-trending markets.
Recommendations: View on multiple timeframes, combine with price action and fundamentals.
Trend Candle CounterComplete Tutorial: Trend Candle Counter Pine ScriptTable of Contents
Installation Guide
Understanding the Indicator
How It Works
Customization Options
Trading Strategies
Setting Up Alerts
Troubleshooting
1. Installation Guide {#installation}Step-by-Step Installation:Step 1: Open TradingView
Go to www.tradingview.com
Log in to your account
Step 2: Access Pine Editor
Click on "Pine Editor" tab at the bottom of the chart
Or press Alt + E (Windows) or Option + E (Mac)
Step 3: Create New Indicator
Click "Open" → "New blank indicator"
Delete any default code
Step 4: Paste the Script
Copy the entire Trend Candle Counter script
Paste it into the editor
Step 5: Save and Apply
Click "Save" (or Ctrl + S)
Give it a name: "Trend Candle Counter"
Click "Add to Chart"
✅ Done! The indicator should now appear on your chart.2. Understanding the Indicator {#understanding}What Does It Do?This indicator numbers each candle based on the current trend: {scrollbar-width:none;-ms-overflow-style:none;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;} ::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}Trend TypeNumberingVisualUptrend+1, +2, +3, +4...🟢 Green labelsDowntrend-1, -2, -3, -4...🔴 Red labelsTrend ChangeResets to ±1Label color switchesVisual Components:
Candle Labels - Numbers above each candle
Trend Line (EMA) - Green (up) / Red (down)
Background Shading - Light green/red tint
Info Table - Top-right corner showing:
Current trend direction
Current candle number
Current price
3. How It Works {#how-it-works}Trend Detection Logic:IF Close > EMA → UPTREND (positive counting)
IF Close < EMA → DOWNTREND (negative counting)
Counting Mechanism:Example Uptrend:Candle 1: Close > EMA → Label: +1
Candle 2: Close > EMA → Label: +2
Candle 3: Close > EMA → Label: +3
Candle 4: Close < EMA → Label: -1 (trend changed!)
Example Downtrend:Candle 1: Close < EMA → Label: -1
Candle 2: Close < EMA → Label: -2
Candle 3: Close < EMA → Label: -3
Candle 4: Close > EMA → Label: +1 (trend changed!)
Key Insight:The higher the absolute number, the longer the trend has been running!4. Customization Options {#customization}Accessing Settings:
Click the gear icon ⚙️ next to the indicator name
Go to "Inputs" tab
Available Parameters: {scrollbar-width:none;-ms-overflow-style:none;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;} ::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}ParameterDefaultDescriptionRecommendationTrend Detection Length14EMA period for trend5-10: Scalping14-20: Day trading50-200: Swing tradingShow Candle Numbers✅ YesDisplay labelsDisable for cleaner chartLabel SizeSmallSize of numbersTiny: Multi-timeframeLarge: Focus on one chartUptrend ColorGreenPositive number colorCustomize to preferenceDowntrend ColorRedNegative number colorCustomize to preferenceOptimization by Trading Style:For Scalpers (1m - 5m charts):Trend Detection Length: 5-10
Label Size: Tiny
Show Labels: Optional (can be cluttered)
For Day Traders (15m - 1h charts):Trend Detection Length: 14-20
Label Size: Small
Show Labels: Yes
For Swing Traders (4h - Daily charts):Trend Detection Length: 50-100
Label Size: Normal
Show Labels: Yes
5. Trading Strategies {#strategies}Strategy 1: Trend Reversal TradingEntry Signals:
Buy: When counter changes from negative to +1
Sell: When counter changes from positive to -1
Confirmation:
Wait for +2 or -2 to confirm trend strength
Use additional indicators (RSI, MACD) for validation
Example:Candle: -5, -6, -7, -8, +1, +2 ← BUY HERE
Stop Loss: Below the -8 candle low
Target: When counter reaches +8 to +10
Strategy 2: Trend Continuation TradingEntry Signals:
Buy: Enter on pullbacks during uptrend (e.g., at +3, +5, +7)
Sell: Enter on bounces during downtrend (e.g., at -3, -5, -7)
Risk Management:
Avoid entering at high numbers (+15, -15) - trend may be exhausted
Example:Candle: +1, +2, +3 ← Small pullback, BUY
Continue: +4, +5, +6, +7
Exit: When counter resets to -1
Strategy 3: Trend Exhaustion DetectionWarning Signs:
Counter reaches +10 or higher → Uptrend may be overextended
Counter reaches -10 or lower → Downtrend may be overextended
Action:
Tighten stop losses
Take partial profits
Watch for reversal patterns (doji, engulfing)
Strategy 4: Multi-Timeframe AnalysisSetup:
Add indicator to 3 timeframes (e.g., 15m, 1h, 4h)
Look for alignment
Best Trades:15m: +1 (new uptrend)
1h: +5 (established uptrend)
4h: +3 (strong uptrend)
→ HIGH PROBABILITY BUY
6. Setting Up Alerts {#alerts}Built-in Alert Conditions:The script includes 2 automatic alerts:
"Uptrend Started" - Triggers when counter = +1
"Downtrend Started" - Triggers when counter = -1
How to Set Up Alerts:Step 1: Right-click on chart
Select "Add Alert"
Step 2: Configure Alert
Condition: Select "Trend Candle Counter"
Choose: "Uptrend Started" or "Downtrend Started"
Options:
Once per bar close (recommended)
Webhook URL (for automation)
Step 3: Notification Settings
✅ Popup
✅ Send email
✅ Push notification (mobile app)
✅ Play sound
Step 4: Create Alert
Click "Create"
Custom Alert Ideas:Alert for Specific Candle Numbers:
Notify when counter reaches +5 or -5
Notify when counter exceeds +10 or -10 (exhaustion)
7. Troubleshooting {#troubleshooting}Common Issues & Solutions:Issue 1: Labels are too cluttered
Solution:
Disable "Show Candle Numbers" in settings
Use larger timeframe
Reduce label size to "tiny"
Issue 2: Too many false signals
Solution:
Increase "Trend Detection Length" (e.g., 20, 50)
Wait for +2 or -2 confirmation
Combine with other indicators
Issue 3: Trend line doesn't match price action
Solution:
Adjust EMA length to match your trading style
Consider using different trend detection (SMA, HMA)
Issue 4: Indicator not showing on chart
Solution:
Check if it's in a separate pane - move to main chart
Refresh the page
Re-add the indicator
Issue 5: Counter seems delayed
Solution:
This is normal - indicator confirms on candle close
For faster signals, use lower timeframe
Reduce EMA length (but expect more noise)
8. Advanced Tips 💡Combining with Other Indicators:Best Combinations:
RSI + Trend Candle Counter
Buy at +1 when RSI > 50
Sell at -1 when RSI < 50
MACD + Trend Candle Counter
Confirm +1 with MACD bullish crossover
Confirm -1 with MACD bearish crossover
Volume + Trend Candle Counter
Strong trends (+1) should have increasing volume
Low volume at high numbers (+10) = exhaustion
Reading Market Psychology: {scrollbar-width:none;-ms-overflow-style:none;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;} ::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}Counter ValueMarket Psychology+1 to +3Early adopters entering+4 to +7Momentum building+8 to +12FOMO phase+13+Extreme greed - caution!-1 to -3Early sellers-4 to -7Panic building-8 to -12Capitulation-13+Extreme fear - reversal likely9. Real Trading Example 📊Scenario: BTC/USD 1H ChartTime | Counter | Action
--------|---------|----------------------------------
10:00 | -8 | Downtrend established
11:00 | -9 | Still falling
12:00 | -10 | Exhaustion zone - watch closely
13:00 | +1 | ✅ BUY SIGNAL - Trend reversal!
14:00 | +2 | Confirmation - trend valid
15:00 | +3 | Hold position
16:00 | +4 | Add to position (optional)
17:00 | +5 | Move stop loss to breakeven
...
22:00 | +11 | Take partial profits
23:00 | +12 | Tighten stop loss
00:00 | -1 | ❌ EXIT - Trend reversed
Adv EMA Cloud v6 (ADX, Alerts)Summary:
This indicator provides a multi-faceted view of market trends using Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) arranged in visually intuitive clouds, enhanced with an optional ADX-based range filter and configurable alerts for key market conditions. It aims to help traders quickly gauge trend alignment across short, medium, and long timeframes while filtering signals during potentially choppy market conditions.
Key Features:
Multiple EMAs: Displays 10-period (Fast), 20-period (Mid), and 50-period (Slow) EMAs.
Long-Term Trend Filter: Includes a 200-period EMA to provide context for the overall dominant trend direction.
Dual EMA Clouds:
Fast/Mid Cloud (10/20 EMA): Fills the area between the 10 and 20 EMAs. Defaults to Green when 10 > 20 (bullish short-term momentum) and Red when 10 < 20 (bearish short-term momentum).
Mid/Slow Cloud (20/50 EMA): Fills the area between the 20 and 50 EMAs. Defaults to Aqua when 20 > 50 (bullish mid-term trend) and Fuchsia when 20 < 50 (bearish mid-term trend).
Optional ADX Range Filter: Uses the Average Directional Index (ADX) to identify potentially non-trending or choppy markets. When enabled and ADX falls below a user-defined threshold, the EMA clouds will turn grey, visually warning that trend-following signals may be less reliable.
Configurable Alerts: Provides several built-in alert conditions using Pine Script's alertcondition function:
Confluence Condition: Triggers when a 10/20 EMA crossover occurs while both EMA clouds show alignment (both bullish/green/aqua or both bearish/red/fuchsia) and price respects the 200 EMA filter and the ADX filter indicates a trend (if filters are enabled).
MA Filter Cross: Triggers when price crosses above or below the 200 EMA filter line.
Full Alignment Start: Triggers on the first bar where full bullish or bearish alignment occurs (both clouds aligned + MA filter respected + ADX trending, if filters are enabled).
How It Works:
EMA Calculation: Standard Exponential Moving Averages are calculated for the 10, 20, 50, and 200 periods based on the closing price.
Cloud Creation: The fill() function visually shades the area between the 10 & 20 EMAs and the 20 & 50 EMAs.
Cloud Coloring: The color of each cloud is determined by the relationship between the two EMAs that define it (e.g., if EMA 10 is above EMA 20, the first cloud is bullish-colored).
ADX Filter Logic: The script calculates the ADX value. If the "Use ADX Trend Filter?" input is checked and the calculated ADX is below the specified "ADX Trend Threshold", the script considers the market potentially ranging.
ADX Visual Effect: During detected ranging periods (if the ADX filter is active), the plotCloud12Color and plotCloud23Color variables are assigned a neutral grey color instead of their normal bullish/bearish colors before being passed to the fill() function.
Alert Logic: Boolean variables track the specific conditions (crossovers, cloud alignment, filter positions, ADX state). The alertcondition() function creates triggerable alerts based on these pre-defined conditions.
Potential Interpretation (Not Financial Advice):
Trend Alignment: When both clouds share the same directional color (e.g., both bullish - Green & Aqua) and price is on the corresponding side of the 200 EMA filter, it may suggest a stronger, more aligned trend. Conversely, conflicting cloud colors may indicate indecision or transition.
Dynamic Support/Resistance: The EMA lines themselves (especially the 20, 50, and 200) can sometimes act as dynamic levels where price might react.
Range Warning: Greyed-out clouds (when ADX filter is enabled) serve as a visual warning that trend-based strategies might face increased difficulty or whipsaws.
Confluence Alerts: The specific confluence alerts signal moments where multiple conditions align (crossover + cloud agreement + filters), which some traders might view as higher-probability setups.
Customization:
All EMA lengths (10, 20, 50, 200) are adjustable via the Inputs menu.
The ADX length and threshold are configurable.
The MA Trend Filter and ADX Trend Filter can be independently enabled or disabled.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Trading financial markets involves significant risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own thorough analysis and consider your risk tolerance before making any trading decisions. This indicator should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods and tools. Do not trade based solely on the signals or visuals provided by this indicator.
Pulse of Cycle Oscillator"Pulse of Cycle" Oscillator: Logic and Usage
What Is It and How Does It Work?
The "Pulse of Cycle" is an oscillator that measures the cycles of price rises and falls, helping you spot overbought and oversold conditions. Unlike classic indicators, it doesn’t focus on how much the price moves but tracks its direction (up or down) like a "pulse." Here’s the logic:
Price Movement:
If the price rises compared to the previous bar, it adds +1.
If the price falls, it subtracts -1.
If the price stays the same, it adds 0.
Decay Factor: Each step, the previous value is multiplied by a factor (e.g., 0.9) to shrink it slightly. This keeps the oscillator from growing too big and focuses it on recent price action.
Signals: The oscillator moves around zero. When it crosses certain levels (e.g., 5 and 10), it warns you about overbought or oversold zones:
Weak Signal: Above ±5, the market might be stretching a bit.
Strong Signal: Above ±10, a reversal is more likely.
In short, it tracks the "rhythm" of price streaks (consecutive ups or downs) and signals when things might be getting extreme.
How It Looks on the Chart
Line: The oscillator moves around a zero line.
Colors:
Blue: Normal zone (between -5 and +5).
Orange: Weak overbought (+5 and up) or oversold (-5 and down).
Red: Strong overbought (+10 and up).
Lime: Strong oversold (-10 and down).
Threshold Lines: You’ll see lines at 0, ±5, and ±10 on the chart to show where you are.
How to Use It?
Here’s how to trade with this oscillator:
Buy Opportunity (Long Position):
When?: The oscillator drops below -5 (weak) or -10 (strong), then starts moving back toward zero. This suggests the price has hit a bottom and might rise.
Example: It falls to -12 (lime), then rises to -8. You could buy, expecting a bounce.
Tip: Wait for a green candle to confirm if you want to be safer.
Sell Opportunity (Short Position):
When?: The oscillator rises above +5 (weak) or +10 (strong), then starts dropping back toward zero. This indicates the price might have peaked and could fall.
Example: It hits +11 (red), then drops to +7. You could sell, expecting a decline.
Tip: Look for a red candle to confirm the turn.
Neutral Zone: If it’s between -5 and +5, the market is balanced. You can wait for a clearer signal.
Practical Steps to Use
Add to TradingView:
Paste the code into Pine Editor and click “Add to Chart.”
Adjust Settings (Optional):
Decay (0.9): Lower to 0.7 for faster response, raise to 0.95 for smoother movement.
Thresholds (5 and 10): Change them (e.g., 4 and 8) based on your market.
Watch Signals:
Follow the color changes and threshold crossings.
Set Alerts:
Right-click the oscillator > “Add Alert” to get notified on overbought/oversold signals.
Things to Watch Out For
Confirmation: Pair it with support/resistance levels or candlestick patterns for stronger signals.
Market Type: Works best in range-bound (sideways) markets. In strong trends (all up or down), signals might mislead.
Risk: Always use a stop loss—below the last low for buys, above the last high for sells.
Summary
The "Pulse of Cycle" is a simple yet powerful tool that tracks price movement streaks. Use it to catch reversals at strong signals (-10/+10) or get early warnings at weak signals (±5). The colors and lines on the chart make it easy to see when to act.
Checklist By TradeINskiChecklist By TradeINski
First Things First
This indicator is a supporting tool for trading momentum burst that is 2 Lynch setup by stock bee aka Pradeep Bonde.
Disclaimer: This indicator will not give any buy or sell signal. This is just a supporting tool to improve efficiency in my trading.
Apply Indicators and then open indicator settings and read the following simultaneously to understand better.
Default color settings are best suited for light themes. Which is also my personal preference.
Users can change most of the default options in settings according to their personal preference in settings.
When we open settings we can see 3 tabs that are {Inputs tab} {Style tab} {Visibility tab} each tab have its own options, Understand and use it accordingly.
Indicator will be only visible in the Daily time frame as its primary TF is daily. In the lower time frame nothing is plotted.
An indicator is plotted on an existing plane and overlaid on the existing plane.
Contents
My Checklist Lynch
Table Header Settings
Position
Size
Text Color
Background Color
“ON/OFF” Header “Text Box” “Info”
Table Content
Text Color
Background Color
“ON/OFF” R (1 - 10) “Text Box” T (1 - 10) “Text Box”
My Checklist - 2Lynch
This is the checklist I use while placing the trade just to make use of not missing anything based on predefined rules of the setup I trade.
2 - The stock should not be Up more than 2 days in a row, Minor movement can be acceptable.
L - The stock price movement should be linear, validation of established momentum
Y - Young trend in preference 1 - 3rd breakout from base
N - Narrow Range or -ve day before breakout
C - Consolidation should be narrow, linear and low volume. No more than one 4% breakdown.
H - The candle should close near high or at least 20% within when entered.
Table Headers Settings
Position - “Drop Down” with 9 different options which are self explanatory. Users can change the position of the table as per their preference.
Size - “Drop Down” with 6 different options which are self explanatory. Users can change the size of all the text printed in the table as per their preference.
Text Color - “Default Color is White” This setting is specifically only for header text. And users can change the text color of the header as per their preference.
Background Color - “Default Color is Blue” This setting is specifically only for header
background color. Users can change the background color of the header as per their preference.
“ON/OFF” Header “Text Box” “Info”
“Check Mark” - To show or hide the header that is “ON/OFF”.
“Header” - Heading of the table.
“Text Box” - Users can input as per their preference.
“Info” - Info symbol that shows short form and important note that is (Max 50 characteristics for all text boxes) .
Table Content
Text Color - “Default Color is White” This setting is specifically for table texts. And users can change the text color of the all content table texts as per their preference.
Background Color - “Default Color is black” This setting is specifically for content table texts background color. Users can change the background color of the header as per their preference.
“ON/OFF” R (1 - 10) “Text Box” T (1 - 10) “Text Box”
“Check Mark” - To show or hide the complete Row. Users have options and can change as per their preferences.
R (1-10) - “R” stands for Row and (1-10) is Number of rows available for users to enter text. Users have 10 different options.
“Text Box” - Place to enter text that users want to print on column 1 of the table.
T (1-10) - “T” stands for table and (1-10) is Number of text boxes available for users to enter text. Users have 10 different options.
“Text Box” - Place to enter text that users want to print on column 2 of the table.
Realtime FootprintThe purpose of this script is to gain a better understanding of the order flow by the footprint. To that end, i have added unusual features in addition to the standard features.
I use "Real Time 5D Profile by LucF" main engine to create basic footprint(profile type) and added some popular features and my favorites.
This script can only be used in realtime, because tradingview doesn't provide historical Bid/Ask date.
Bid/Ask date used this script are up/down ticks.
This script can only be used by time based chart (1m, 5m , 60m and daily etc)
This script use many labels and these are limited max 500, so you can't display many bars.
If you want to display foot print bars longer, turn off the unused sub-display function.
Default setting is footprint is 25 labels, IB count is 1, COT high and Ratio high is 1, COT low and Ratio low is 1 and Delta Box Ratio Volume is 1 , total 29.
plus UA , IB stripes , ladder fading mark use several labels.
///////// General Setting ///////////
Resets on Volume / Range bar
: If you want to use simple time based Resets on, please set Total Volume is 0.
Your timeframe is always the first condition. So if you set Total Volume is 1000, both conditions(Volume >= 1000 and your timeframe start next bar) must be met. (that is, new footprint bar doesn't start at when total volume = exactly 1000).
Ticks per row and Maximum row of Bar
: 1 is minimum size(tick). "Maximum row of Bar" decide the number of rows used in one footprint. 1 row is created from 1 label, so you need to reduce this number to display many footprints (Max label is 500).
Volume Filter and For Calculation and Display
: "Volume Filter" decide minimum size of using volume for this script.
"For Calculation and Display" is used to convert volume to an integer.
This script only use integer to make profile look better (I contained Bid number and Ask number in one row( one label) to saving labels. This require to make no difference in width by the number of digits and this script corresponds integers from 0 to 3 digits).
ex) Symbol average volume size is from 0.0001 to 0.001. You decide only use Volume >= 0.0005 by "Volume Filter".
Next, you convert volume to integer, by setting "For Calculation and Display" is 1000 (0.0005 * 1000 = 5).
If 0.00052 → 5.2 → 5, 0.00058 → 5.8 → 6 (Decimal numbers are rounded off)
This integer is used to all calculation in this script.
//////// Main Display ///////
Footprint, Total, Row Delta, Diagonal Delta and Profile
: "Footprint" display Ask and Bid per row. "Total" display Ask + Bid per row.
"Row Delta" display Ask - Bid per row. "Diagonal Delta" display Ask(row N) - Bid(row N -1) per row.
Profile display Total Volume(Ask + Bid) per row by using Block. Profile Block coloring are decided by Row Delta value(default: positive Row Delta (Ask > Bid) is greenish colors and negative Row Delta (Ask < Bid) is reddish colors.)
Volume per Profile Block, Row Imbalance Ratio and Delta Bull/Bear/Neutral Colors
: "Volume per Profile Block" decide one block contain how many total volume.
ex) When you set 20, Total volume 70 display 3 block.
The maximum number of blocks that can be used per low is 20.
So if you set 20, Total volume 400 is 20 blocks. total volume 800 is 20 blocks too.
"Row Imbalance Ratio" decide block coloring. The row imbalance is that the difference between Ask and Bid (row delta) is large.
default is x3, x2 and x1. The larger the difference, the brighter the color.
ex) Ask 30 Bid 10 is light green. Ask 20 Bid 10 is green. Ask 11 Bid 10 is dark green.
Ask 0 Bid 1 is light red. Ask 1 Bid 2 is red. ask 30 Bid 59 is dark green.
Ask 10 Bid 10 is neutral color(gray)
profile coloring is reflected same row's other elements(Ask, Bid, Total and Delta) too.
It's because one label can only use one text color.
/////// Sub Display ///////
Delta, total and Commitment of Traders
: "Delta" is total Ask - total Bid in one footprint bar. Total is total Ask + total Bid in one footprint bar.
"Commitment of traders" is variation of "Delta". COT High is reset to 0 when current highest is touched. COT Low is opposite.
Basic concept of Delta is to compare price with Delta. Ordinary, when price move up, delta is positive. Price move down is negative delta.
This is because market orders move price and market orders are counted by Delta (although this description is not exactly correct).
But, sometimes prices do not move even though many market orders are putting pressure on price , or conversely, price move strongly without many market orders.
This is key point. Big player absorb market orders by iceberg order(Subdivide large orders and pretend to be small limit orders.
Small limit orders look weak in the order book, but they are added each time you fill, so they are more powerful than they look.), so price don't move.
On the other hand, when the price is moving easily, smart players may be aiming to attract and counterattack to a better price for them.
It's more of a sport than science, and there's always no right response. Pay attention to the relationship between price, volume and delta.
ex) If COT Low is large negative value, it means many sell market orders is coming, but iceberg order is absorbing their attack at limit order.
you should not do buy entry, only this clue. but this is one of the hints.
"Delta, Box Ratio and Total texts is contained same label and its color are "Delta" coloring. Positive Delta is Delta Bull color(green),Negative Delta is Delta Bear Color
and Delta = 0 is Neutral Color(gray). When Delta direction and price direction are opposite is Delta Divergence Color(yellow).
I didn't add the cumulative volume delta because I prefer to display the CVD line on the price chart rather than the number.
Box Ratio , Box Ratio Divisor and Heavy Box Ratio Ratio
: This is not ordinary footprint features, but I like this concept so I added.
Box Ratio by Richard W. Arms is simple but useful tool. calculation is "total volume (one bar) divided by Bar range (highest - lowest)."
When Bull and bear are fighting fiercely this number become large, and then important price move happen.
I made average BR from something like 5 SMA and if current BR exceeds average BR x (Heavy Box Ratio Ratio), BR box mark will be filled.
Box Ratio Divisor is used to good looking display(BR multiplied by Box Ratio Divisor is rounded off and displayed as an integer)
Diagonal Imbalance Count , D IB Mark and D IB Stripes
: Diagonal Imbalance is defined by "Diagonal Imbalance Ratio".
ex) You set 2. When Ask(row N) 30 Bid(row N -1)10, it's 30 > 10*2, so positive Diagonal Imbalance.
When Ask(row N) 4 Bid(row N -1)9, it's 4*2 < 9, so negative Diagonal Imbalance.
This calculation does not use equals to avoid Ask(row N) 0 Bid(row N -1)0 became Diagonal Imbalance.
Ask(row N) 0 Bid(row N -1)0, it's 0 = 0*2, not Diagonal Imbalance. Ask(row N) 10 Bid(row N -1)5, it's 10 = 5*2, not Diagonal Imbalance.
"D IB Mark" emphasize Ask or Bid number which is dominant side(Winner of Diagonal Imbalance calculation), by under line.
"Diagonal Imbalance Count" compare Ask side D IB Mark to Bid side D IB Mark in one footprint.
Coloring depend on which is more aggressive side (it has many IB Mark) and When Aggressive direction and price direction are opposite is Delta Divergence Color(yellow).
"D IB Stripes" is a function that further emphasizes with an arrow Mark, when a DIB mark is added on the same side for three consecutive row. Three consecutive arrow is added at third row.
Unfinished Auction, Ratio Bounds and Ladder fading Mark
: "Unfinished Auction" emphasize highest or lowest row which has both Ask and Bid, by Delta Divergence Color(yellow) XXXXXX mark.
Unfinished Auction sometimes has magnet effect, price may touch and breakout at UA side in the future.
This concept is famous as profit taking target than entry decision.
But, I'm interested in the case that Big player make fake breakout at UA side and trapped retail traders, and then do reversal with retail traders stop-loss hunt.
Anyway, it's not stand alone signal.
"Ratio Bounds" gauge decrease of pressure at extreme price. Ratio Bounds High is number which second highest ask is divided by highest ask.
Ratio Bounds Low is number which second lowest bid is divided by lowest bid. The larger the number, the less momentum the price has.
ex)first footprint bar has Ratio Bounds Low 2, second footprint bar has RBL 4, third footprint bar has RBL 20.
This indicates that the bear's power is gradually diminishing.
"Ladder fading mark" emphasizes the decrease of the value in 3 consecutive row at extreme price. I added two type Marks.
Ask/Bid type(triangle Mark) is Ask/Bid values are decreasing of three consecutive row at extreme price.
Row Imbalance type(Diamond Mark) are row Imbalance values are decreasing of three consecutive row at extreme price.
ex)Third lowest Bid 40, second lowest Bid 10 and lowest Bid 5 have triangle up Mark. That is bear's power is gradually diminishing.
(This Mark only check Bid value at lowest price and Ask value at highest price).
Third highest row delta + 60, second highest row delta + 5, highest delta - 20 have diamond Mark. That is Bull's power is gradually diminishing.
Sub display use Delta colors at bottom of Sub display section.
////// Candle & POC /////////
candle and POC
: Ordinary, "POC" Point of Control is row of largest total volume, but this script'POC is volume weighted average.
This is because the regular POC was visually displayed by the profile ,and I was influenced LucF's ideas.
POC coloring is decided in relation to the previous POC. When current POC is higher than previous POC, color is UP Bar Color(green).
In the opposite case, Down Bar color is used.
POC Divergence Color is used when Current POC is up but current bar close is lower than open (Down price Bar),or in the opposite case.
POC coloring has option also highlight background by Delta Divergence Color(yellow). but bg color is displayed at your time frame current price bar not current footprint bar.
The basic explanation is over.
I add some image to promote understanding basic ideas.
LA - Opening Price based Previous day Range PivotThis "LA - Opening Price based Previous day Range Pivot" indicator is a custom technical analysis tool designed for Trading View charts. It plots support and resistance levels (often referred to as pivots or ranges) based on the current opening price combined with the previous period's trading range. The "previous period" can be daily, weekly, or monthly, making it a multi-timeframe tool. These levels are projected using Fibonacci-inspired multipliers to create potential breakout or reversal zones.
The core idea is inspired by concepts like the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy or Fibonacci pivots, but it's customized here to use a dynamic range calculation (the maximum of several absolute price differences) rather than a simple high-low range. This makes it more robust for volatile markets. Levels are symmetric above (resistance) and below (support) the opening price, helping traders identify potential entry/exit points, stop-losses, or targets. This will be useful when there is a gap-up/down as in Nifty/Sensex .
Purpose of the Indicator:
To visualize potential support/resistance zones for the current trading session based on the opening price and historical range data. This helps traders anticipate price movements, such as breakouts above resistance or bounces off support
Use Cases:
Intraday Trading: On lower timeframes (e.g., 5-min or 15-min charts), it shows daily levels for short-term trades.
Swing Trading: On higher timeframes (e.g., hourly or daily), it displays weekly/monthly levels for longer holds.
Range Identification: The filled bands highlight "zones" where price might consolidate or reverse.
Conditional Display: Levels only appear on appropriate timeframes (e.g., daily levels on intraday charts <60min), preventing clutter.
Theoretical Basis: It builds on pivot point theory, where the opening price acts as a central pivot. Multipliers (e.g., 0.618 for Fibonacci golden ratio) project levels, assuming price often respects these ratios due to market psychology.
How Calculations Work
Let's dive into the math with examples. Assume a stock with:
Current daily open (cdo) = $100
Previous daily high (pdh) = $105, low (pdl) = $95, close (pdc) = $102, close 2 days ago (pdc2) = $98
Step 1: Dynamic Range Calculation (var_d2):
This is the max of:
|pdh - pdc2| = |105 - 98| = 7
|pdl - pdc2| = |95 - 98| = 3
|pdh - pdl| = |105 - 95| = 10 (previous day range)
|pdh - cdo| = |105 - 100| = 5
|pdl - cdo| = |95 - 100| = 5
|pdc - cdo| = |102 - 100| = 2
|pdc2 - cdo| = |98 - 100| = 2
Max = 10 (so range = 10). This ensures the range accounts for gaps and extended moves, not just high-low.
Step 2: Level Projections:
Resistance (above open): Open + (Range * Multiplier)
dre6 = 100 + (10 * 1.5) = 115
dre5 = 100 + (10 * 1.27) ≈ 112.7
... down to dre0 = 100 + (10 * 0.1) = 101
dre50 = 100 + (10 * 0.5) = 105 (midpoint)
Support (below open): Open - (Range * Multiplier)
dsu0 = 100 - (10 * 0.1) = 99
... up to dsu6 = 100 - (10 * 1.5) = 85
Without Indicator
With Indicator
Pros and Cons
Pros:
Multi-Timeframe Flexibility: Seamlessly integrates daily, weekly, and monthly levels, useful for aligning short-term trades with longer trends (e.g., intraday breakout confirmed by weekly support).
Dynamic Range Calculation: Unlike standard pivots (just (H+L+C)/3), it uses max of multiple diffs, capturing gaps/volatility better—great for stocks with overnight moves.
Customizable via Inputs: Users can toggle levels, adjust multipliers, or change timeframes without editing code. Inline inputs keep the UI clean.
Visual Aids: Filled bands make zones obvious; conditional colors highlight "tight" vs. "wide" ranges (e.g., for volatility assessment).
Fibonacci Integration: Levels based on proven ratios, appealing to technical traders. Symmetric supports/resistances simplify strategy building (e.g., buy at support, sell at resistance).
No Repainting: Uses historical data with lookahead, so levels are fixed once calculated—reliable for back-testing.
Cons:
Chart Clutter: With all toggles on, 50+ plots/fills can overwhelm the chart, especially on mobile or small screens. Requires manual disabling.
Complexity for Beginners: Many inputs and calculations; without understanding fib ratios or range logic, it might confuse new users.
Performance Overhead: On low timeframes (e.g., 1-min), fetching higher TF data multiple times could lag, especially with many symbols or back-tests.
Assumes Volatility Persistence: Relies on previous range projecting future moves; in low-vol markets (e.g., sideways trends), levels may be irrelevant or too wide/narrow.
No Alerts or Signals: Purely visual; no built-in buy/sell alerts or crossover conditions—users must add separately.
Hardcoded Styles/Colors: Limited customization without code edits (e.g., can't change line styles via inputs).
Also, not optimized for non-stock assets (e.g., forex with 24/7 trading).
In summary, this is a versatile pivot tool for range-based trading based on Opening price, excelling in volatile markets but requiring some setup. If you're using it, start with defaults on a daily chart and toggle off unnecessary levels.
EAOBS by MIGVersion 1
1. Strategy Overview Objective: Capitalize on breakout movements in Ethereum (ETH) price after the Asian open pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST) by identifying high and low prices during the session and trading breakouts above the high or below the low.
Timeframe: Any (script is timeframe-agnostic, but align with session timing).
Session: Pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST, adjustable for other time zones, e.g., 12:00 AM–12:59 AM GMT).
Risk-Reward Ratios (R:R): Targets range from 1.2:1 to 5.2:1, with a fixed stop loss.
Instrument: Ethereum (ETH/USD or ETH-based pairs).
2. Market Setup Session Monitoring: Monitor ETH price action during the pre-market session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST), which aligns with the Asian market open (e.g., 9:00 AM–9:59 AM JST).
The script tracks the highest high and lowest low during this session.
Breakout Triggers: Buy Signal: Price breaks above the session’s high after the session ends (7:59 PM EST).
Sell Signal: Price breaks below the session’s low after the session ends.
Visualization: The session is highlighted on the chart with a white background.
Horizontal lines are drawn at the session’s high and low, extended for 30 bars, along with take-profit (TP) and stop-loss (SL) levels.
3. Entry Rules Long (Buy) Entry: Enter a long position when the price breaks above the session’s high price after 7:59 PM EST.
Entry price: Just above the session high (e.g., add a small buffer, like 0.1–0.5%, to avoid false breakouts, depending on volatility).
Short (Sell) Entry: Enter a short position when the price breaks below the session’s low price after 7:59 PM EST.
Entry price: Just below the session low (e.g., subtract a small buffer, like 0.1–0.5%).
Confirmation: Use a candlestick close above/below the breakout level to confirm the entry.
Optionally, add volume confirmation or a momentum indicator (e.g., RSI or MACD) to filter out weak breakouts.
Position Size: Calculate position size based on risk tolerance (e.g., 1–2% of account per trade).
Risk is determined by the stop-loss distance (10 points, as defined in the script).
4. Exit Rules Take-Profit Levels (in points, based on script inputs):TP1: 12 points (1.2:1 R:R).
TP2: 22 points (2.2:1 R:R).
TP3: 32 points (3.2:1 R:R).
TP4: 42 points (4.2:1 R:R).
TP5: 52 points (5.2:1 R:R).
Example for Long: If session high is 3000, TP levels are 3012, 3022, 3032, 3042, 3052.
Example for Short: If session low is 2950, TP levels are 2938, 2928, 2918, 2908, 2898.
Strategy: Scale out of the position (e.g., close 20% at TP1, 20% at TP2, etc.) or take full profit at a preferred TP level based on market conditions.
Stop-Loss: Fixed at 10 points from the entry.
Long SL: Session high - 10 points (e.g., entry at 3000, SL at 2990).
Short SL: Session low + 10 points (e.g., entry at 2950, SL at 2960).
Trailing Stop (Optional):After reaching TP2 or TP3, consider trailing the stop to lock in profits (e.g., trail by 10–15 points below the current price).
5. Risk Management per Trade: Limit risk to 1–2% of your trading account per trade.
Calculate position size: Account Size × Risk % ÷ (Stop-Loss Distance × ETH Price per Point).
Example: $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. If SL = 10 points and 1 point = $1, position size = $100 ÷ 10 = 0.1 ETH.
Daily Risk Limit: Cap daily losses at 3–5% of the account to avoid overtrading.
Maximum Exposure: Avoid taking both long and short positions simultaneously unless using separate accounts or strategies.
Volatility Consideration: Adjust position size during high-volatility periods (e.g., major news events like Ethereum upgrades or macroeconomic announcements).
6. Trade Management Monitoring :Watch for breakouts after 7:59 PM EST.
Monitor price action near TP and SL levels using alerts or manual checks.
Trade Duration: Breakout lines extend for 30 bars (script parameter). Close trades if no TP or SL is hit within this period, or reassess based on market conditions.
Adjustments: If the market shows strong momentum, consider holding beyond TP5 with a trailing stop.
If the breakout fails (e.g., price reverses before TP1), exit early to minimize losses.
7. Additional Considerations Market Conditions: The 7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST session aligns with the Asian market open (e.g., Tokyo Stock Exchange open at 9:00 AM JST), which may introduce higher volatility due to Asian trading activity.
Avoid trading during low-liquidity periods or extreme volatility (e.g., major crypto news).
Check for upcoming events (e.g., Ethereum network upgrades, ETF decisions) that could impact price.
Backtesting: Test the strategy on historical ETH data using the session high/low breakouts for the 7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST window to validate performance.
Adjust TP/SL levels based on backtest results if needed.
Broker and Fees: Use a low-fee crypto exchange (e.g., Binance, Kraken, Coinbase Pro) to maximize R:R.
Account for trading fees and slippage in your position sizing.
Time zone Adjustment: Adjust session time input for your time zone (e.g., "0000-0059" for GMT).
Ensure your trading platform’s clock aligns with the script’s time zone (default: America/New_York).
8. Example Trade Scenario: Session (7:00 PM–7:59 PM EST) records a high of 3050 and a low of 3000.
Long Trade: Entry: Price breaks above 3050 (e.g., enter at 3051).
TP Levels: 3063 (TP1), 3073 (TP2), 3083 (TP3), 3093 (TP4), 3103 (TP5).
SL: 3040 (3050 - 10).
Position Size: For a $10,000 account, 1% risk = $100. SL = 11 points ($11). Size = $100 ÷ 11 = ~0.09 ETH.
Short Trade: Entry: Price breaks below 3000 (e.g., enter at 2999).
TP Levels: 2987 (TP1), 2977 (TP2), 2967 (TP3), 2957 (TP4), 2947 (TP5).
SL: 3010 (3000 + 10).
Position Size: Same as above, ~0.09 ETH.
Execution: Set alerts for breakouts, enter with limit orders, and monitor TPs/SL.
9. Tools and Setup Platform: Use TradingView to implement the Pine Script and visualize breakout levels.
Alerts: Set price alerts for breakouts above the session high or below the session low after 7:59 PM EST.
Set alerts for TP and SL levels.
Chart Settings: Use a 1-minute or 5-minute chart for precise session tracking.
Overlay the script to see high/low lines, TP levels, and SL levels.
Optional Indicators: Add RSI (e.g., avoid overbought/oversold breakouts) or volume to confirm breakouts.
10. Risk Warnings Crypto Volatility: ETH is highly volatile; unexpected news can cause rapid price swings.
False Breakouts: Breakouts may fail, especially in low-volume sessions. Use confirmation signals.
Leverage: Avoid high leverage (e.g., >5x) to prevent liquidation during volatile moves.
Session Accuracy: Ensure correct session timing for your time zone to avoid misaligned entries.
11. Performance Tracking Journaling :Record each trade’s entry, exit, R:R, and outcome.
Note market conditions (e.g., trending, ranging, news-driven).
Review: Weekly: Assess win rate, average R:R, and adherence to the plan.
Monthly: Adjust TP/SL or session timing based on performance.
Institutional Volume Profile# Institutional Volume Profile (IVP) - Advanced Volume Analysis Indicator
## Overview
The Institutional Volume Profile (IVP) is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that combines traditional volume profile analysis with institutional volume detection algorithms. This indicator helps traders identify key price levels where significant institutional activity has occurred, providing insights into market structure and potential support/resistance zones.
## Key Features
### 🎯 Volume Profile Analysis
- **Point of Control (POC)**: Identifies the price level with the highest volume activity
- **Value Area**: Highlights the price range containing a specified percentage (default 70%) of total volume
- **Multi-Row Distribution**: Displays volume distribution across 10-50 price levels for detailed analysis
- **Customizable Period**: Analyze volume profiles over 10-500 bars
### 🏛️ Institutional Volume Detection
- **Pocket Pivot Volume (PPV)**: Detects bullish institutional buying when up-volume exceeds recent down-volume peaks
- **Pivot Negative Volume (PNV)**: Identifies bearish institutional selling when down-volume exceeds recent up-volume peaks
- **Accumulation Detection**: Spots potential accumulation phases with high volume and narrow price ranges
- **Distribution Analysis**: Identifies distribution patterns with high volume but minimal price movement
### 🎨 Visual Customization Options
- **Multiple Color Schemes**: Heat Map, Institutional, Monochrome, and Rainbow themes
- **Bar Styles**: Solid, Gradient, Outlined, and 3D Effect rendering
- **Volume Intensity Display**: Visual intensity based on volume magnitude
- **Flexible Positioning**: Left or right side profile placement
- **Current Price Highlighting**: Real-time price level indication
### 📊 Advanced Visual Features
- **Volume Labels**: Display volume amounts at key price levels
- **Gradient Effects**: Multi-step gradient rendering for enhanced visibility
- **3D Styling**: Shadow effects for professional appearance
- **Opacity Control**: Adjustable transparency (10-100%)
- **Border Customization**: Configurable border width and styling
## How It Works
### Volume Distribution Algorithm
The indicator analyzes each bar within the specified period and distributes its volume proportionally across the price levels it touches. This creates an accurate representation of where trading activity has been concentrated.
### Institutional Detection Logic
- **PPV Trigger**: Current up-bar volume > highest down-volume in lookback period + above volume MA
- **PNV Trigger**: Current down-bar volume > highest up-volume in lookback period + above volume MA
- **Accumulation**: High volume + narrow range + bullish close
- **Distribution**: Very high volume + minimal price movement
### Value Area Calculation
Starting from the POC, the algorithm expands both upward and downward, adding volume until reaching the specified percentage of total volume (default 70%).
## Configuration Parameters
### Profile Settings
- **Profile Period**: 10-500 bars (default: 50)
- **Number of Rows**: 10-50 levels (default: 24)
- **Profile Width**: 10-100% of screen (default: 30%)
- **Value Area %**: 50-90% (default: 70%)
### Institutional Analysis
- **PPV Lookback Days**: 5-20 periods (default: 10)
- **Volume MA Length**: 10-200 periods (default: 50)
- **Institutional Threshold**: 1.0-2.0x multiplier (default: 1.2)
### Visual Controls
- **Bar Style**: Solid, Gradient, Outlined, 3D Effect
- **Color Scheme**: Heat Map, Institutional, Monochrome, Rainbow
- **Profile Position**: Left or Right side
- **Opacity**: 10-100%
- **Show Labels**: Volume amount display toggle
## Interpretation Guide
### Volume Profile Elements
- **Thick Horizontal Bars**: High volume nodes (strong support/resistance)
- **Thin Horizontal Bars**: Low volume nodes (weak levels)
- **White Line (POC)**: Strongest support/resistance level
- **Blue Highlighted Area**: Value Area (fair value zone)
### Institutional Signals
- **Blue Triangles (PPV)**: Bullish institutional buying detected
- **Orange Triangles (PNV)**: Bearish institutional selling detected
- **Color-Coded Bars**: Different colors indicate institutional activity types
### Color Scheme Meanings
- **Heat Map**: Red (high volume) → Orange → Yellow → Gray (low volume)
- **Institutional**: Blue (PPV), Orange (PNV), Aqua (Accumulation), Yellow (Distribution)
- **Monochrome**: Grayscale intensity based on volume
- **Rainbow**: Color-coded by price level position
## Trading Applications
### Support and Resistance
- POC acts as dynamic support/resistance
- High volume nodes indicate strong price levels
- Low volume areas suggest potential breakout zones
### Institutional Activity
- PPV above Value Area: Strong bullish signal
- PNV below Value Area: Strong bearish signal
- Accumulation patterns: Potential upward breakouts
- Distribution patterns: Potential downward pressure
### Market Structure Analysis
- Value Area defines fair value range
- Profile shape indicates market sentiment
- Volume gaps suggest potential price targets
## Alert Conditions
- PPV Detection at current price level
- PNV Detection at current price level
- PPV above Value Area (strong bullish)
- PNV below Value Area (strong bearish)
## Best Practices
1. Use multiple timeframes for confirmation
2. Combine with price action analysis
3. Pay attention to volume context (above/below average)
4. Monitor institutional signals near key levels
5. Consider overall market conditions
## Technical Notes
- Maximum 500 boxes and 100 labels for optimal performance
- Real-time calculations update on each bar close
- Historical analysis uses complete bar data
- Compatible with all TradingView chart types and timeframes
---
*This indicator is designed for educational and informational purposes. Always combine with other analysis methods and risk management strategies.*
ADR% Extension Levels from SMA 50I created this indicator inspired by RealSimpleAriel (a swing trader I recommend following on X) who does not buy stocks extended beyond 4 ADR% from the 50 SMA and uses extensions from the 50 SMA at 7-8-9-10-11-12-13 ADR% to take profits with a 20% position trimming.
RealSimpleAriel's strategy (as I understood it):
-> Focuses on leading stocks from leading groups and industries, i.e., those that have grown the most in the last 1-3-6 months (see on Finviz groups and then select sector-industry).
-> Targets stocks with the best technical setup for a breakout, above the 200 SMA in a bear market and above both the 50 SMA and 200 SMA in a bull market, selecting those with growing Earnings and Sales.
-> Buys stocks on breakout with a stop loss set at the day's low of the breakout and ensures they are not extended beyond 4 ADR% from the 50 SMA.
-> 3-5 day momentum burst: After a breakout, takes profits by selling 1/2 or 1/3 of the position after a 3-5 day upward move.
-> 20% trimming on extension from the 50 SMA: At 7 ADR% (ADR% calculated over 20 days) extension from the 50 SMA, takes profits by selling 20% of the remaining position. Continues to trim 20% of the remaining position based on the stock price extension from the 50 SMA, calculated using the 20-period ADR%, thus trimming 20% at 8-9-10-11 ADR% extension from the 50 SMA. Upon reaching 12-13 ADR% extension from the 50 SMA, considers the stock overextended, closes the remaining position, and evaluates a short.
-> Trailing stop with ascending SMA: Uses a chosen SMA (10, 20, or 50) as the definitive stop loss for the position, depending on the stock's movement speed (preferring larger SMAs for slower-moving stocks or for long-term theses). If the stock's closing price falls below the chosen SMA, the entire position is closed.
In summary:
-->Buy a breakout using the day's low of the breakout as the stop loss (this stop loss is the most critical).
--> Do not buy stocks extended beyond 4 ADR% from the 50 SMA.
--> Sell 1/2 or 1/3 of the position after 3-5 days of upward movement.
--> Trim 20% of the position at each 7-8-9-10-11-12-13 ADR% extension from the 50 SMA.
--> Close the entire position if the breakout fails and the day's low of the breakout is reached.
--> Close the entire position if the price, during the rise, falls below a chosen SMA (10, 20, or 50, depending on your preference).
--> Definitively close the position if it reaches 12-13 ADR% extension from the 50 SMA.
I used Grok from X to create this indicator. I am not a programmer, but based on the ADR% I use, it works.
Below is Grok from X's description of the indicator:
Script Description
The script is a custom indicator for TradingView that displays extension levels based on ADR% relative to the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below is a detailed description of its features, structure, and behavior:
1. Purpose of the Indicator
Name: "ADR% Extension Levels from SMA 50".
Objective: Draw horizontal blue lines above and below the 50-period SMA, corresponding to specific ADR% multiples (4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13). These levels represent potential price extension zones based on the average daily percentage volatility.
Overlay: The indicator is overlaid on the price chart (overlay=true), so the lines and SMA appear directly on the price graph.
2. Configurable Inputs
The indicator allows users to customize parameters through TradingView settings:
SMA Length (smaLength):
Default: 50 periods.
Description: Specifies the number of periods for calculating the Simple Moving Average (SMA). The 50-period SMA serves as the reference point for extension levels.
Constraint: Minimum 1 period.
ADR% Length (adrLength):
Default: 20 periods.
Description: Specifies the number of days to calculate the moving average of the daily high/low ratio, used to determine ADR%.
Constraint: Minimum 1 period.
Scale Factor (scaleFactor):
Default: 1.0.
Description: An optional multiplier to adjust the distance of extension levels from the SMA. Useful if levels are too close or too far due to an overly small or large ADR%.
Constraint: Minimum 0.1, increments of 0.1.
Tooltip: "Adjust if levels are too close or far from SMA".
3. Main Calculations
50-period SMA:
Calculated with ta.sma(close, smaLength) using the closing price (close).
Serves as the central line around which extension levels are drawn.
ADR% (Average Daily Range Percentage):
Formula: 100 * (ta.sma(dhigh / dlow, adrLength) - 1).
Details:
dhigh and dlow are the daily high and low prices, obtained via request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", high/low) to ensure data is daily-based, regardless of the chart's timeframe.
The dhigh / dlow ratio represents the daily percentage change.
The simple moving average (ta.sma) of this ratio over 20 days (adrLength) is subtracted by 1 and multiplied by 100 to obtain ADR% as a percentage.
The result is multiplied by scaleFactor for manual adjustments.
Extension Levels:
Defined as ADR% multiples: 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13.
Stored in an array (levels) for easy iteration.
For each level, prices above and below the SMA are calculated as:
Above: sma50 * (1 + (level * adrPercent / 100))
Below: sma50 * (1 - (level * adrPercent / 100))
These represent price levels corresponding to a percentage change from the SMA equal to level * ADR%.
4. Visualization
Horizontal Blue Lines:
For each level (4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 ADR%), two lines are drawn:
One above the SMA (e.g., +4 ADR%).
One below the SMA (e.g., -4 ADR%).
Color: Blue (color.blue).
Style: Solid (style=line.style_solid).
Management:
Each level has dedicated variables for upper and lower lines (e.g., upperLine1, lowerLine1 for 4 ADR%).
Previous lines are deleted with line.delete before drawing new ones to avoid overlaps.
Lines are updated at each bar with line.new(bar_index , level, bar_index, level), covering the range from the previous bar to the current one.
Labels:
Displayed only on the last bar (barstate.islast) to avoid clutter.
For each level, two labels:
Above: E.g., "4 ADR%", positioned above the upper line (style=label.style_label_down).
Below: E.g., "-4 ADR%", positioned below the lower line (style=label.style_label_up).
Color: Blue background, white text.
50-period SMA:
Drawn as a gray line (color.gray) for visual reference.
Diagnostics:
ADR% Plot: ADR% is plotted in the status line (orange, histogram style) to verify the value.
ADR% Label: A label on the last bar near the SMA shows the exact ADR% value (e.g., "ADR%: 2.34%"), with a gray background and white text.
5. Behavior
Dynamic Updating:
Lines update with each new bar to reflect new SMA 50 and ADR% values.
Since ADR% uses daily data ("D"), it remains constant within the same day but changes day-to-day.
Visibility Across All Bars:
Lines are drawn on every bar, not just the last one, ensuring visibility on historical data as well.
Adaptability:
The scaleFactor allows level adjustments if ADR% is too small (e.g., for low-volatility symbols) or too large (e.g., for cryptocurrencies).
Compatibility:
Works on any timeframe since ADR% is calculated from daily data.
Suitable for symbols with varying volatility (e.g., stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies).
6. Intended Use
Technical Analysis: Extension levels represent significant price zones based on average daily volatility. They can be used to:
Identify potential price targets (e.g., take profit at +7 ADR%).
Assess support/resistance zones (e.g., -4 ADR% as support).
Measure price extension relative to the 50 SMA.
Trading: Useful for strategies based on breakouts or mean reversion, where ADR% levels indicate reversal or continuation points.
Debugging: Labels and ADR% plot help verify that values align with the symbol’s volatility.
7. Limitations
Dependence on Daily Data: ADR% is based on daily dhigh/dlow, so it may not reflect intraday volatility on short timeframes (e.g., 1 minute).
Extreme ADR% Values: For low-volatility symbols (e.g., bonds) or high-volatility symbols (e.g., meme stocks), ADR% may require adjustments via scaleFactor.
Graphical Load: Drawing 16 lines (8 upper, 8 lower) on every bar may slow the chart for very long historical periods, though line management is optimized.
ADR% Formula: The formula 100 * (sma(dhigh/dlow, Length) - 1) may produce different values compared to other ADR% definitions (e.g., (high - low) / close * 100), so users should be aware of the context.
8. Visual Example
On a chart of a stock like TSLA (daily timeframe):
The 50 SMA is a gray line tracking the average trend.
Assuming an ADR% of 3%:
At +4 ADR% (12%), a blue line appears at sma50 * 1.12.
At -4 ADR% (-12%), a blue line appears at sma50 * 0.88.
Other lines appear at ±7, ±8, ±9, ±10, ±11, ±12, ±13 ADR%.
On the last bar, labels show "4 ADR%", "-4 ADR%", etc., and a gray label shows "ADR%: 3.00%".
ADR% is visible in the status line as an orange histogram.
9. Code: Technical Structure
Language: Pine Script @version=5.
Inputs: Three configurable parameters (smaLength, adrLength, scaleFactor).
Calculations:
SMA: ta.sma(close, smaLength).
ADR%: 100 * (ta.sma(dhigh / dlow, adrLength) - 1) * scaleFactor.
Levels: sma50 * (1 ± (level * adrPercent / 100)).
Graphics:
Lines: Created with line.new, deleted with line.delete to avoid overlaps.
Labels: Created with label.new only on the last bar.
Plots: plot(sma50) for the SMA, plot(adrPercent) for debugging.
Optimization: Uses dedicated variables for each line (e.g., upperLine1, lowerLine1) for clear management and to respect TradingView’s graphical object limits.
10. Possible Improvements
Option to show lines only on the last bar: Would reduce visual clutter.
Customizable line styles: Allow users to choose color or style (e.g., dashed).
Alert for anomalous ADR%: A message if ADR% is too small or large.
Dynamic levels: Allow users to specify ADR% multiples via input.
Optimization for short timeframes: Adapt ADR% for intraday timeframes.
Conclusion
The script creates a visual indicator that helps traders identify price extension levels based on daily volatility (ADR%) relative to the 50 SMA. It is robust, configurable, and includes debugging tools (ADR% plot and labels) to verify values. The ADR% formula based on dhigh/dlow
