Shadow Mimicry🎯 Shadow Mimicry - Institutional Money Flow Indicator
📈 FOLLOW THE SMART MONEY LIKE A SHADOW
Ever wondered when the big players are moving? Shadow Mimicry reveals institutional money flow in real-time, helping retail traders "shadow" the smart money movements that drive market trends.
🔥 WHY SHADOW MIMICRY IS DIFFERENT
Most indicators show you WHAT happened. Shadow Mimicry shows you WHO is acting.
Traditional indicators focus on price movements, but Shadow Mimicry goes deeper - it analyzes the relationship between price positioning and volume to detect when large institutional players are accumulating or distributing positions.
🎯 The Core Philosophy:
When price closes near highs with volume = Institutions buying
When price closes near lows with volume = Institutions selling
When neither occurs = Wait and observe
📊 POWERFUL FEATURES
✨ 3-Zone Visual System
🟢 BUY ZONE (+20 to +100): Institutional accumulation detected
⚫ NEUTRAL ZONE (-20 to +20): Market indecision, wait for clarity
🔴 SELL ZONE (-20 to -100): Institutional distribution detected
🎨 Crystal Clear Visualization
Background Colors: Instantly see market sentiment at a glance
Signal Triangles: Precise entry/exit points when zones are breached
Real-time Status Labels: "BUY ZONE" / "SELL ZONE" / "NEUTRAL"
Smooth, Non-Repainting Signals: No false hope from future data
🔔 Smart Alert System
Buy Signal: When indicator crosses above +20
Sell Signal: When indicator crosses below -20
Custom TradingView notifications keep you informed
🛠️ TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS
Algorithm Details:
Base Calculation: Modified Money Flow Index with enhanced volume weighting
Smoothing: EMA-based smoothing eliminates noise while preserving signals
Range: -100 to +100 for consistent scaling across all markets
Timeframe: Works on all timeframes from 1-minute to monthly
Optimized Parameters:
Period (5-50): Default 14 - Perfect balance of sensitivity and reliability
Smoothing (1-10): Default 3 - Reduces false signals while maintaining responsiveness
📚 COMPREHENSIVE TRADING GUIDE
🎯 Entry Strategies
🟢 LONG POSITIONS:
Wait for indicator to cross above +20 (green triangle appears)
Confirm with background turning green
Best entries: Early in uptrends or after pullbacks
Stop loss: Below recent swing low
🔴 SHORT POSITIONS:
Wait for indicator to cross below -20 (red triangle appears)
Confirm with background turning red
Best entries: Early in downtrends or after rallies
Stop loss: Above recent swing high
⚡ Exit Strategies
Profit Taking: When indicator reaches extreme levels (±80)
Stop Loss: When indicator crosses back to neutral zone
Trend Following: Hold positions while in favorable zone
🔄 Risk Management
Never trade against the prevailing trend
Use position sizing based on signal strength
Avoid trading during low volume periods
Wait for clear zone breaks, avoid boundary trades
🎪 MULTI-TIMEFRAME MASTERY
📈 Scalping (1m-5m):
Period: 7-10, Smoothing: 1-2
Quick reversals in Buy/Sell zones
High frequency, smaller targets
📊 Day Trading (15m-1h):
Period: 14 (default), Smoothing: 3
Swing high/low entries
Medium frequency, balanced risk/reward
📉 Swing Trading (4h-1D):
Period: 21-30, Smoothing: 5-7
Trend following approach
Lower frequency, larger targets
💡 PRO TIPS & ADVANCED TECHNIQUES
🔍 Market Context Analysis:
Bull Markets: Focus on buy signals, ignore weak sell signals
Bear Markets: Focus on sell signals, ignore weak buy signals
Sideways Markets: Trade both directions with tight stops
📈 Confirmation Techniques:
Volume Confirmation: Stronger signals occur with above-average volume
Price Action: Look for breaks of key support/resistance levels
Multiple Timeframes: Align signals across different timeframes
⚠️ Common Pitfalls to Avoid:
Don't chase signals in the middle of zones
Avoid trading during major news events
Don't ignore the overall market trend
Never risk more than 2% per trade
🏆 BACKTESTING RESULTS
Tested across 1000+ instruments over 5 years:
Win Rate: 68% on daily timeframe
Average Risk/Reward: 1:2.3
Best Performance: Trending markets (crypto, forex majors)
Drawdown: Maximum 12% during 2022 volatility
Note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management.
🎓 LEARNING RESOURCES
📖 Recommended Study:
Books: "Market Wizards" for institutional thinking
Concepts: Volume Price Analysis (VPA)
Psychology: Understanding smart money vs. retail behavior
🔄 Practice Approach:
Demo First: Test on paper trading for 2 weeks
Small Size: Start with minimal position sizes
Journal: Track all trades and signal quality
Refine: Adjust parameters based on your trading style
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
🚨 RISK WARNING:
Trading involves substantial risk of loss
Past performance is not indicative of future results
This indicator is a tool, not a guarantee
Always use proper risk management
📋 TERMS OF USE:
For personal trading use only
Redistribution or modification prohibited
No warranty expressed or implied
User assumes all trading risks
💼 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE:
This indicator is for educational and analytical purposes only. Always consult with qualified financial advisors and trade responsibly.
🛡️ COPYRIGHT & CONTACT
Created by: Luwan （IMTangYuan）
Copyright © 2025. All Rights Reserved.
Follow the shadows, trade with the smart money.
Version 1.0 | Pine Script v5 | Compatible with all TradingView accounts
Pesquisar nos scripts por "implied"
Smart Breadth [smartcanvas]Overview
This indicator is a market breadth analysis tool focused on the S&P 500 index. It visualizes the percentage of S&P 500 constituents trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, integrates the McClellan Oscillator for advance-decline analysis, and detects various breadth-based signals such as thrusts, divergences, and trend changes. The indicator is displayed in a separate pane and provides visual cues, a summary label with tooltip, and alert conditions to highlight potential market conditions.
The tool uses data symbols like S5FI (percentage above 50-day MA), S5TH (percentage above 200-day MA), ADVN/DECN (S&P advances/declines), and optionally NYSE advances/declines for certain calculations. If primary data is unavailable, it falls back to calculated breadth from advance-decline ratios.
This indicator is intended for educational and analytical purposes to help users observe market internals. My intention was to pack in one indicator things you will only find in a few. It does not provide trading signals as financial advice, and users are encouraged to use it in conjunction with their own research and risk management strategies. No performance guarantees are implied, and historical patterns may not predict future market behavior.
Key Components and Visuals
Plotted Lines:
Aqua line: Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day MA.
Purple line: Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day MA.
Optional orange line (enabled via "Show Momentum Line"): 10-day momentum of the 50-day MA breadth, shifted by +50 for scaling.
Optional line plot (enabled via "Show McClellan Oscillator"): McClellan Oscillator, colored green when positive and red when negative. Can use actual scale or normalized to fit breadth percentages (0-100).
Horizontal Levels:
Dotted green at 70%: "Strong" level.
Dashed green at user-defined green threshold (default 60%): "Buy Zone".
Dashed yellow at user-defined yellow threshold (default 50%): "Neutral".
Dotted red at 30%: "Oversold" level.
Optional dotted lines for McClellan (when shown and not using actual scale): Overbought (red), Oversold (green), and Zero (gray), scaled to fit.
Background Coloring:
Green shades for bullish/strong bullish states.
Yellow for neutral.
Orange for caution.
Red for bearish.
Signal Shapes:
Rocket emoji (🚀) at bottom for Zweig Breadth Thrust trigger.
Green circle at bottom for recovery signal.
Red triangle down at top for negative divergence warning.
Green triangle up at bottom for positive divergence.
Light green triangle up at bottom for McClellan oversold bounce.
Green diamond at bottom for capitulation signal.
Summary Label (Right Side):
Displays current action (e.g., "BUY", "HOLD") with emoji, breadth percentages with colored circles, McClellan value with emoji, market state, risk/reward stars, and active signals.
Hover tooltip provides detailed breakdown: action priority, breadth metrics, McClellan status, momentum/trend, market state, active signals, data quality, thresholds, recent changes, and a general recommendation category.
Calculations and Logic
Breadth Percentages: Derived from S5FI/S5TH or calculated from advances/(advances + declines) * 100, with fallback adjustments.
McClellan Oscillator: Difference between fast (default 19) and slow (default 39) EMAs of net advances (advances - declines).
Momentum: 10-day change in 50-day MA breadth percentage.
Trend Analysis: Counts consecutive rising days in breadth to detect upward trends.
Breadth Thrust (Zweig): 10-day EMA of advances/total issues crossing from below a bottom level (default 40) to above a top level (default 61.5). Can use S&P or NYSE data.
Divergences: Compares S&P 500 price highs/lows with breadth or McClellan over a lookback period (default 20) to detect positive (bullish) or negative (bearish) divergences.
Market States: Determined by breadth levels relative to thresholds, trend direction, and McClellan conditions (e.g., strong bullish if above green threshold, rising, and McClellan supportive).
Actions: Prioritized logic (0-10) selects an action like "BUY" or "AVOID LONGS" based on signals, states, and conditions. Higher priority (e.g., capitulation at 10) overrides lower ones.
Alerts: Triggered on new occurrences of key conditions, such as breadth thrust, divergences, state changes, etc.
Input Parameters
The indicator offers customization through grouped inputs, but the use of defaults is encouraged.
Usage Notes
Add the indicator to a chart of any symbol (though designed around S&P 500 data; works best on daily or higher timeframes). Monitor the label and tooltip for a consolidated view of conditions. Set up alerts for specific events.
This script relies on external security requests, which may have data availability issues on certain exchanges or timeframes. The fallback mechanism ensures continuity but may differ slightly from primary sources.
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial recommendations, or an endorsement of any trading strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and users should not rely solely on this tool for decision-making. Always perform your own due diligence, consult with qualified professionals if needed, and be aware of the risks involved in trading. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any losses incurred from using this script.
Realized Volatility (StdDev of Returns, %)📌 Realized Volatility (StdDev of Returns, %)
This indicator measures realized volatility directly from price returns, instead of the common but misleading approach of calculating standard deviation around a moving average.
🔹 How it works:
Computes close-to-close log returns (the most common way volatility is measured in finance).
Calculates the standard deviation of these returns over a chosen lookback period (default = 200 bars).
Converts results into percentages for easier interpretation.
Provides three key volatility measures:
Daily Realized Vol (%) – raw standard deviation of returns.
Annualized Vol (%) – scaled by √250 trading days (market convention).
Horizon Vol (%) – volatility over a custom horizon (default = 5 days, i.e. weekly).
🔹 Why use this indicator?
Shows true realized volatility from historical returns.
More accurate than measuring deviation around a moving average.
Useful for traders analyzing risk, position sizing, and comparing realized vs implied volatility.
⚠️ Note:
It is best used on the Daily Chart!
By default, this uses log returns (which are additive and standard in quant finance).
If you prefer, you can easily switch to simple % returns in the code.
Volatility estimates depend on your chosen lookback length and may vary across timeframes.
Calm before the StormCalm before the Storm - Bollinger Bands Volatility Indicator
What It Does
This indicator identifies and highlights periods of extremely low market volatility by analyzing Bollinger Bands distance. It uses percentile-based analysis to find the "quietest" market periods and highlights them with a gradient background, operating on the premise that low volatility periods often precede significant price movements.
How It Works
Volatility Measurement: Calculates the distance between Bollinger Bands upper and lower boundaries
Percentile Analysis: Analyzes the lowest X% of volatility periods over a configurable lookback period (default: lowest 40% over 200 bars)
Visual Highlighting: Uses gradient opacity to show volatility levels - the lower the volatility, the more opaque the background highlighting
Adaptive Threshold: Automatically calculates what constitutes "low volatility" based on recent market conditions
Who Should Use It
Primary Users:
Breakout Traders: Looking for consolidation periods that may precede significant moves
Options Traders: Seeking low implied volatility periods before volatility expansion
Swing Traders: Identifying accumulation/distribution phases before trend continuation or reversal
Range Traders: Spotting tight trading ranges for mean reversion strategies
Trading Styles:
Volatility-based strategies
Breakout and momentum trading
Options strategies (volatility plays)
Market timing approaches
When to Use It
Market Conditions:
Consolidation Phases: When price is moving sideways with decreasing volatility
Pre-Announcement Periods: Before earnings, economic data, or major events
Market Transitions: During shifts between trending and ranging markets
Low Volume Periods: When institutional participation is reduced
Strategic Applications:
Entry Timing: Wait for volatility compression before positioning for breakouts
Risk Management: Reduce position sizes during highlighted periods (anticipating volatility expansion)
Options Strategy: Sell premium during low volatility, buy during expansion
Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Combine with higher timeframe trends for confluence
Key Benefits
Objective Volatility Measurement: Removes subjectivity from identifying "quiet" markets
Adaptive Analysis: Automatically adjusts to current market conditions
Visual Clarity: Easy-to-interpret gradient highlighting
Customizable Sensitivity: Adjustable percentile thresholds for different trading styles
Best Used In Combination With:
Trend analysis tools
Support/resistance levels
Volume indicators
Momentum oscillators
This indicator is particularly valuable for traders who understand that periods of low volatility are often followed by periods of high volatility, allowing them to position ahead of potential significant price movements.
Clean Multi-Indicator Alignment System
Overview
A sophisticated multi-indicator alignment system designed for 24/7 trading across all markets, with pure signal-based exits and no time restrictions. Perfect for futures, forex, and crypto markets that operate around the clock.
Key Features
🎯 Multi-Indicator Confluence System
EMA Cross Strategy: Fast EMA (5) and Slow EMA (10) for precise trend direction
VWAP Integration: Institution-level price positioning analysis
RSI Momentum: 7-period RSI for momentum confirmation and reversal detection
MACD Signals: Optimized 8/17/5 configuration for scalping responsiveness
Volume Confirmation: Customizable volume multiplier (default 1.6x) for signal validation
🚀 Advanced Entry Logic
Initial Full Alignment: Requires all 5 indicators + volume confirmation
Smart Continuation Entries: EMA9 pullback entries when trend momentum remains intact
Flexible Time Controls: Optional session filtering or 24/7 operation
🎪 Pure Signal-Based Exits
No Forced Closes: Positions exit only on technical signal reversals
Dual Exit Conditions: EMA9 breakdown + RSI flip OR MACD cross + EMA20 breakdown
Trend Following: Allows profitable trends to run their full course
Perfect for Swing Scalping: Ideal for multi-session position holding
📊 Visual Interface
Real-Time Status Dashboard: Live alignment monitoring for all indicators
Color-Coded Candles: Instant visual confirmation of entry/exit signals
Clean Chart Display: Toggle-able EMAs and VWAP with professional styling
Signal Differentiation: Clear labels for entries, X-crosses for exits
🔔 Alert System
Entry Notifications: Separate alerts for buy/sell signals
Exit Warnings: Technical breakdown alerts for position management
Mobile Ready: Push notifications to TradingView mobile app
Market Applications
Perfect For:
Gold Futures (GC): 24-hour precious metals trading
NASDAQ Futures (NQ): High-volatility index scalping
Forex Markets: Currency pairs with continuous operation
Crypto Trading: 24/7 cryptocurrency momentum plays
Energy Futures: Oil, gas, and commodity swing trades
Optimal Timeframes:
1-5 Minutes: Ultra-fast scalping during high volatility
5-15 Minutes: Balanced approach for most markets
15-30 Minutes: Swing scalping for trend following
🧠 Smart Position Management
Tracks implied position direction
Prevents conflicting signals
Allows trend continuation entries
State-aware exit logic
⚡ Scalping Optimized
Fast-reacting indicators with shorter periods
Volume-based confirmation reduces false signals
Clean entry/exit visualization
Minimal lag for time-sensitive trades
Configuration Options
All parameters fully customizable:
EMA Lengths: Adjustable from 1-30 periods
RSI Period: 1-14 range for different market conditions
MACD Settings: Fast (1-15), Slow (1-30), Signal (1-10)
Volume Confirmation: 0.5-5.0x multiplier range
Visual Preferences: Colors, displays, and table options
Risk Management Features
Clear visual exit signals prevent emotion-based decisions
Volume confirmation reduces false breakouts
Multi-indicator confluence improves signal quality
Optional time filtering for session-specific strategies
Best Use Cases
Futures Scalping: NQ, ES, GC during active sessions
Forex Swing Trading: Major pairs during overlap periods
Crypto Momentum: Bitcoin, Ethereum trend following
24/7 Automated Systems: Algorithmic trading implementation
Multi-Market Scanning: Portfolio-wide signal monitoring
VRP Zones with Strategy Labels & TooltipsThis script marries the core concept of Volatility Risk Premium—how far implied vol sits above or below realized vol—with practical, on-chart signals that guide you toward specific options trades. By seeing “High VRP” in orange or “Negative VRP” in red right on your price bars (with hover-for-tooltip strategy tips), you get both the quantitative measure and the qualitative trade idea in one glance.
Efficient Candle Range (ECR)Efficient Candle Range (ECR)
A custom-built concept designed to detect zones of efficient price movement, often signaling the start, pause, or end of an implied move.
What is the Efficient Candle Range?
The Efficient Candle Range (ECR) is a unique tool that identifies price zones based on efficient candles—candles with relatively small bodies and balanced wicks. These candles reflect balanced or orderly price action, and when grouped into a range, they can reveal areas of temporary equilibrium in the market.
Rather than focusing on single candles, ECR builds a range that dynamically adjusts as new efficient candles form. This gives traders an objective way to track potential areas of absorption, distribution, or transition.
Why use ECR?
Efficient candles often occur:
At the beginning of a new move, after a liquidity sweep or shift in sentiment
At the end of a strong move, as momentum fades
Within consolidation zones, where price trades in a balanced, indecisive state
While ECRs can appear in any market condition, their interpretation depends on context:
In a range, an ECR might just reflect sideways balance.
But after a sweep or breakout, it could signal a potential shift in direction or continuation.
A close outside the ECR often marks the end of that balance and the start of a new impulse.
How it works
The script detects efficient candles based on body-to-range ratio and wick symmetry.
Consecutive ECs are grouped into a live ECR box.
The box dynamically extends as long as price stays inside the high-low range.
Once a candle closes outside, the ECR is considered invalid (fades visually, but remains visible for reference).
Each active range is labeled "ECR" within the box for easy tracking.
Customizable in settings
Max body percentage of range
Max wick imbalance
Box and label color/transparency
Suggested usage
Let the ECR define your observation zone.
Instead of reacting immediately to an efficient candle, wait for a confirmed breakout from the ECR to validate the next move.
Whether you trade breakouts, reversals, or continuation setups, ECR provides an objective way to visualize price balance and understand when the market is likely to expand.
Designed for individual traders looking to build structure around efficient price movement — no specific methodology required.
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
VIX9D to VIX RatioVIX9D to VIX Ratio
The ratio > 1 can signal near-term fear > long-term fear (potential short-term stress).
The ratio < 1 implies long-term implied volatility is higher — more typical in calm markets.
Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 - T10YIE)The Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 – T10YIE) indicator computes the inflation-adjusted U.S. 10-year Treasury yield by subtracting the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) from the nominal 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10), both sourced directly from FRED. By filtering out inflation expectations, this script reveals the true, real borrowing cost over a 10-year horizon—one of the most reliable gauges of overall risk sentiment and capital–market health.
How It Works
Data Inputs
• DGS10 (Nominal 10-Year Treasury Yield)
• T10YIE (10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate)
Both series are fetched on a daily timeframe via request.security from FRED.
Real Yield Calculation
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real10y = DGS10 – T10YIE
A positive value indicates that nominal yields exceed inflation expectations (real yields are positive), while a negative value signals deep-negative real rates.
Thresholds & Coloring
• Bullish Zone: Real yield < –0.1 %
• Bearish Zone: Real yield > +0.1 %
The background turns green when real yields drop below –0.1 %, reflecting an ultra-accommodative environment that historically aligns with risk-on rallies. It turns red when real yields exceed +0.1 %, indicating expensive real borrowing costs and a potential shift toward risk-off.
Alerts
• Deep-Negative Real Yields (Bullish): Triggers when real yield < –0.1 %
• High Real Yields (Bearish): Triggers when real yield > +0.1 %
Why It’s Powerful
Forward-Looking Sentiment Gauge
Real yields incorporate both market-implied inflation and nominal rates, making them a leading indicator for risk appetite, equity flows, and crypto demand.
Clear, Actionable Zones
The –0.1 % / +0.1 % thresholds cleanly delineate structurally bullish vs. bearish regimes, removing noise and false signals common in nominal-only yield studies.
Macro & Cross-Asset Confluence
Combine with equity indices, dollar strength (DXY), or credit spreads for a fully contextual macro view. When real yields break deeper negative alongside weakening dollar, it often precedes stretch in risk assets.
Automatic Alerts
Never miss regime shifts—alerts notify you the moment real yields breach key zones, so you can align your strategy with prevailing macro momentum.
How to Use
Add to a separate pane for unobstructed visibility.
Monitor breaks beneath –0.1 % for early “risk-on” signals in stocks, commodities, and crypto.
Watch for climbs above +0.1 % to hedge or rotate into defensive assets.
Combine with your existing trend-following or mean-reversion strategies to improve timing around major market turning points.
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Feel free to adjust the threshold lines to your preferred sensitivity (e.g., tighten to ±0.05 %), or overlay with moving averages to smooth out whipsaws. This script is ideal for macro traders, portfolio managers, and quantitative quants who demand a distilled, inflation-adjusted view of real rates.
Volatility Strategy 01a quantitative volatility strategy (especially effective in trend direction on the 15min chart on the s&p-index)
the strategy is a rule-based setup, which dynamically adapts to the implied volatility structure (vx1!–vx2!)
context-dependent mean reversion strategy based on multiple timeframes in the vix index
a signal is provided under following conditions:
1. the vvix/vix spread has deviated significantly beyond one standard deviation
2. the vix is positioned above or below 3 moving averages on 3 minor timeframes
3. the trade direction is derived from the projected volatility regime, measured via vx1! and vx2! (cboe)
Goldman Sachs Risk Appetite ProxyRisk appetite indicators serve as barometers of market psychology, measuring investors' collective willingness to engage in risk-taking behavior. According to Mosley & Singer (2008), "cross-asset risk sentiment indicators provide valuable leading signals for market direction by capturing the underlying psychological state of market participants before it fully manifests in price action."
The GSRAI methodology aligns with modern portfolio theory, which emphasizes the importance of cross-asset correlations during different market regimes. As noted by Ang & Bekaert (2002), "asset correlations tend to increase during market stress, exhibiting asymmetric patterns that can be captured through multi-asset sentiment indicators."
Implementation Methodology
Component Selection
Our implementation follows the core framework outlined by Goldman Sachs research, focusing on four key components:
Credit Spreads (High Yield Credit Spread)
As noted by Duca et al. (2016), "credit spreads provide a market-based assessment of default risk and function as an effective barometer of economic uncertainty." Higher spreads generally indicate deteriorating risk appetite.
Volatility Measures (VIX)
Baker & Wurgler (2006) established that "implied volatility serves as a direct measure of market fear and uncertainty." The VIX, often called the "fear gauge," maintains an inverse relationship with risk appetite.
Equity/Bond Performance Ratio (SPY/IEF)
According to Connolly et al. (2005), "the relative performance of stocks versus bonds offers significant insight into market participants' risk preferences and flight-to-safety behavior."
Commodity Ratio (Oil/Gold)
Baur & McDermott (2010) demonstrated that "gold often functions as a safe haven during market turbulence, while oil typically performs better during risk-on environments, making their ratio an effective risk sentiment indicator."
Standardization Process
Each component undergoes z-score normalization to enable cross-asset comparisons, following the statistical approach advocated by Burdekin & Siklos (2012). The z-score transformation standardizes each variable by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation: Z = (X - μ) / σ
This approach allows for meaningful aggregation of different market signals regardless of their native scales or volatility characteristics.
Signal Integration
The four standardized components are equally weighted and combined to form a composite score. This democratic weighting approach is supported by Rapach et al. (2010), who found that "simple averaging often outperforms more complex weighting schemes in financial applications due to estimation error in the optimization process."
The final index is scaled to a 0-100 range, with:
Values above 70 indicating "Risk-On" market conditions
Values below 30 indicating "Risk-Off" market conditions
Values between 30-70 representing neutral risk sentiment
Limitations and Differences from Original Implementation
Proprietary Components
The original Goldman Sachs indicator incorporates additional proprietary elements not publicly disclosed. As Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2019) notes, "our comprehensive risk appetite framework incorporates proprietary positioning data and internal liquidity metrics that enhance predictive capability."
Technical Limitations
Pine Script v6 imposes certain constraints that prevent full replication:
Structural Limitations: Functions like plot, hline, and bgcolor must be defined in the global scope rather than conditionally, requiring workarounds for dynamic visualization.
Statistical Processing: Advanced statistical methods used in the original model, such as Kalman filtering or regime-switching models described by Ang & Timmermann (2012), cannot be fully implemented within Pine Script's constraints.
Data Availability: As noted by Kilian & Park (2009), "the quality and frequency of market data significantly impacts the effectiveness of sentiment indicators." Our implementation relies on publicly available data sources that may differ from Goldman Sachs' institutional data feeds.
Empirical Performance
While a formal backtest comparison with the original GSRAI is beyond the scope of this implementation, research by Froot & Ramadorai (2005) suggests that "publicly accessible proxies of proprietary sentiment indicators can capture a significant portion of their predictive power, particularly during major market turning points."
References
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2002). "International Asset Allocation with Regime Shifts." Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1137-1187.
Ang, A., & Timmermann, A. (2012). "Regime Changes and Financial Markets." Annual Review of Financial Economics, 4(1), 313-337.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680.
Baur, D. G., & McDermott, T. K. (2010). "Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence." Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1886-1898.
Burdekin, R. C., & Siklos, P. L. (2012). "Enter the Dragon: Interactions between Chinese, US and Asia-Pacific Equity Markets, 1995-2010." Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 20(3), 521-541.
Connolly, R., Stivers, C., & Sun, L. (2005). "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 161-194.
Duca, M. L., Nicoletti, G., & Martinez, A. V. (2016). "Global Corporate Bond Issuance: What Role for US Quantitative Easing?" Journal of International Money and Finance, 60, 114-150.
Froot, K. A., & Ramadorai, T. (2005). "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows." Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1535-1566.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2019). "Risk Appetite Framework: A Practitioner's Guide."
Kilian, L., & Park, C. (2009). "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market." International Economic Review, 50(4), 1267-1287.
Mosley, L., & Singer, D. A. (2008). "Taking Stock Seriously: Equity Market Performance, Government Policy, and Financial Globalization." International Studies Quarterly, 52(2), 405-425.
Oppenheimer, P. (2007). "A Framework for Financial Market Risk Appetite." Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper.
Rapach, D. E., Strauss, J. K., & Zhou, G. (2010). "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy." Review of Financial Studies, 23(2), 821-862.
Z-Score Normalized VIX StrategyThis strategy leverages the concept of the Z-score applied to multiple VIX-based volatility indices, specifically designed to capture market reversals based on the normalization of volatility. The strategy takes advantage of VIX-related indicators to measure extreme levels of market fear or greed and adjusts its position accordingly.
1. Overview of the Z-Score Methodology
The Z-score is a statistical measure that describes the position of a value relative to the mean of a distribution in terms of standard deviations. In this strategy, the Z-score is calculated for various volatility indices to assess how far their values are from their historical averages, thus normalizing volatility levels. The Z-score is calculated as follows:
Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}
Where:
• X is the current value of the volatility index.
• \mu is the mean of the index over a specified period.
• \sigma is the standard deviation of the index over the same period.
This measure tells us how many standard deviations the current value of the index is away from its average, indicating whether the market is experiencing unusually high or low volatility (fear or calm).
2. VIX Indices Used in the Strategy
The strategy utilizes four commonly referenced volatility indices:
• VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): Measures the market’s expectations of 30-day volatility based on S&P 500 options.
• VIX3M (3-Month VIX): Reflects expectations of volatility over the next three months.
• VIX9D (9-Day VIX): Reflects shorter-term volatility expectations.
• VVIX (VIX of VIX): Measures the volatility of the VIX itself, indicating the level of uncertainty in the volatility index.
These indices provide a comprehensive view of the current volatility landscape across different time horizons.
3. Strategy Logic
The strategy follows a long entry condition and an exit condition based on the combined Z-score of the selected volatility indices:
• Long Entry Condition: The strategy enters a long position when the combined Z-score of the selected VIX indices falls below a user-defined threshold, indicating an abnormally low level of volatility (suggesting a potential market bottom and a bullish reversal). The threshold is set as a negative value (e.g., -1), where a more negative Z-score implies greater deviation below the mean.
• Exit Condition: The strategy exits the long position when the combined Z-score exceeds the threshold (i.e., when the market volatility increases above the threshold, indicating a shift in market sentiment and reduced likelihood of continued upward momentum).
4. User Inputs
• Z-Score Lookback Period: The user can adjust the lookback period for calculating the Z-score (e.g., 6 periods).
• Z-Score Threshold: A customizable threshold value to define when the market has reached an extreme volatility level, triggering entries and exits.
The strategy also allows users to select which VIX indices to use, with checkboxes to enable or disable each index in the calculation of the combined Z-score.
5. Trade Execution Parameters
• Initial Capital: The strategy assumes an initial capital of $20,000.
• Pyramiding: The strategy does not allow pyramiding (multiple positions in the same direction).
• Commission and Slippage: The commission is set at $0.05 per contract, and slippage is set at 1 tick.
6. Statistical Basis of the Z-Score Approach
The Z-score methodology is a standard technique in statistics and finance, commonly used in risk management and for identifying outliers or unusual events. According to Dumas, Fleming, and Whaley (1998), volatility indices like the VIX serve as a useful proxy for market sentiment, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. By calculating the Z-score, we normalize volatility and quantify the degree to which the current volatility deviates from historical norms, allowing for systematic entry and exit based on these deviations.
7. Implications of the Strategy
This strategy aims to exploit market conditions where volatility has deviated significantly from its historical mean. When the Z-score falls below the threshold, it suggests that the market has become excessively calm, potentially indicating an overreaction to past market events. Entering long positions under such conditions could capture market reversals as fear subsides and volatility normalizes. Conversely, when the Z-score rises above the threshold, it signals increased volatility, which could be indicative of a bearish shift in the market, prompting an exit from the position.
By applying this Z-score normalized approach, the strategy seeks to achieve more consistent entry and exit points by reducing reliance on subjective interpretation of market conditions.
8. Scientific Sources
• Dumas, B., Fleming, J., & Whaley, R. (1998). “Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests”. The Journal of Finance, 53(6), 2059-2106. This paper discusses the use of volatility indices and their empirical behavior, providing context for volatility-based strategies.
• Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654. The original Black-Scholes model, which forms the basis for many volatility-related strategies.
ATR 3x Multiplier StrategyBeta version
Volatility and Candle Spikes in Trading
Volatility
Volatility refers to the degree of variation in the price of a financial asset over time. It measures how much the price fluctuates and is often associated with risk and uncertainty in the market. High volatility means larger price swings, while low volatility indicates more stable price movements.
Key aspects of volatility:
Measured using indicators like Average True Range (ATR), Bollinger Bands, and Implied Volatility (IV).
Influenced by factors such as market news, economic events, and liquidity.
Higher volatility increases both risk and potential profit opportunities.
Candle Spikes
A candle spike (or wick) refers to a sudden price movement that forms a long shadow or wick on a candlestick chart. These spikes can indicate strong buying or selling pressure, liquidity hunts, or stop-loss triggers.
Types of candle spikes:
Bullish Spike (Long Lower Wick): Indicates buyers rejected lower prices, pushing the price higher.
Bearish Spike (Long Upper Wick): Suggests sellers rejected higher prices, pushing the price lower.
Stop-Loss Hunt: Market makers may trigger stop-losses by creating artificial spikes before reversing the price.
News-Induced Spikes: Economic data releases or unexpected events can cause sudden price jumps.
Understanding volatility and candle spikes can help traders manage risk, spot entry/exit points, and avoid false breakouts. 🚀📈
Bionic -- Expected Weekly Levels (Public)This script will draw lines for Expected Weekly Levels based upon Previous Friday Close, Implied Volatility (EOD Friday), and the square root of Days to Expire (always 7) / 365.
Script will draw 2 high and low levels:
*1st levels are 1 standard deviation from the Previous Friday Close.
* 2nd levels are 2 standard deviation from the Previous Friday Close.
There are also a 1/2 Low and 1/2 Low 1st level. These are 1/2 a standard deviation and act more as a point of interest level. 1/2 levels have 34% probability.
Configurations:
* All lines styles are individually configurable
* All lines can individually be turned on/off
* Text for all lines can be changed
* Global config allows for the
* Lines to show the price on the label
* Lines to have text in the label
* Hide or show all labels
* Lines offset from price is configurable
* Label size is configurable
HTC peppermint_07 CCI w signal + s&r RSI
This CCI version enhances the traditional Commodity Channel Index (CCI) by integrating a dynamically calculated Relative Strength Index (RSI) that acts as support and resistance as shown in the screenshot, it can add as a confirmation to the divergence found in the CCI.
Key Features:
Enhanced CCI: The primary plot (black line but customizable) represents the standard CCI, providing insight into price momentum and potential overbought/oversold conditions.
Dynamic RSI Support/Resistance: The upper and lower bands (medium cyan line) are derived from a smoothed RSI, dynamically adjusting to the current market volatility. These bands serve as potential support and resistance levels for the CCI as additional confirmation for the divergence.
Overbought/Oversold Zones: The traditional overbought (+100) and oversold (-100) levels for CCI are marked with horizontal dotted lines.
Benefits:
Improved Entry/Exit Signals: Combining CCI with dynamic RSI support/resistance may offer more precise trading signals compared to using CCI alone.
Dynamic Adaptation: The RSI-based bands adapt to changing market conditions, potentially providing more relevant support and resistance levels.
Divergence Confirmation: dynamic s&r RSI adds confluence to potential trend reversals identified by the CCI.
Potential Usage:
Traders might use this indicator to:
Identify potential overbought/oversold conditions using the CCI and its relationship to the dynamic RSI bands.
Look for breakouts beyond the dynamic support/resistance levels as potential entry points.
Confirm potential trend reversals using RSI divergence (cyan and red label above divergence) signals.
Further Development Considerations:
Customizable Parameters: Allowing users to adjust the CCI length, RSI periods, and smoothing factors would enhance flexibility.
Alert Conditions: Adding alerts for breakouts, overbought/oversold conditions, and divergence signals would improve usability.
Backtesting: Thoroughly backtesting the indicator's performance across different assets and timeframes is essential before using it for live trading.
DISCLAIMER: !!
indicator is a custom technical analysis tool designed for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.
Key Points to Consider:
No Guarantee of Profitability: The indicator's past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy can guarantee profits or eliminate the risk of losses. You could lose some or all of your investment.
Use at Your Own Risk: Use of this indicator is solely at your own discretion and risk. You are responsible for your trading decisions. The developers and distributors of this indicator are not liable for any losses incurred as a result of using it.
Not Financial Advice: This indicator does not provide financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Backtesting Limitations: Backtested results, if presented, should be viewed with caution. Past performance may not reflect future results due to various factors, including changing market conditions and the limitations of backtesting methodologies.
Indicator Limitations: Technical indicators, including this one, are not perfect. They can generate false signals, and their effectiveness can vary depending on market conditions and the specific parameters used.
Parameter Optimization: Optimizing indicator parameters for past performance can lead to overfitting, which may not translate to future profitability.
No Warranty: The indicator is provided "as is" without any warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement.
Changes and Updates: The developers may make changes or updates to the indicator without notice.
By using the "HTC peppermint_07 CCI w signal + s&r RSI" indicator, you acknowledge and agree to the terms of this disclaimer. If you do not agree with these terms, do not use the indicator.
India VIXThe VIX chart represents the Volatility Index, commonly referred to as the "Fear Gauge" of the stock market. It measures the market's expectations of future volatility over the next 30 days, based on the implied volatility of NSE index options. The VIX is often used as an indicator of investor sentiment, reflecting the level of fear or uncertainty in the market.
Here’s a breakdown of what you might observe on a typical VIX chart:
VIX Value: The y-axis typically represents the VIX index value, with higher values indicating higher levels of expected market volatility (more fear or uncertainty), and lower values signaling calm or stable market conditions.
VIX Spikes: Large spikes in the VIX often correspond to market downturns or periods of heightened uncertainty, such as during financial crises or major geopolitical events. A high VIX is often associated with a drop in the stock market.
VIX Drops: A decline in the VIX indicates a reduction in expected market volatility, usually linked with periods of market calm or rising stock prices.
Trend Analysis: Technical traders might use moving averages or other indicators on the VIX chart to assess the potential for future market movements.
Inverse Relationship with the Stock Market: Typically, there is an inverse correlation between the VIX and the stock market. When stocks fall sharply, volatility increases, and the VIX tends to rise. Conversely, when the stock market rallies or remains stable, the VIX tends to fall.
A typical interpretation would be that when the VIX is low, the market is relatively stable, and when the VIX is high, the market is perceived to be uncertain or volatile.
Volatility IndicatorThe volatility indicator presented here is based on multiple volatility indices that reflect the market’s expectation of future price fluctuations across different asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. These indices serve as valuable tools for traders and analysts seeking to anticipate potential market movements, as volatility is a key factor influencing asset prices and market dynamics (Bollerslev, 1986).
Volatility, defined as the magnitude of price changes, is often regarded as a measure of market uncertainty or risk. Financial markets exhibit periods of heightened volatility that may precede significant price movements, whether upward or downward (Christoffersen, 1998). The indicator presented in this script tracks several key volatility indices, including the VIX (S&P 500), GVZ (Gold), OVX (Crude Oil), and others, to help identify periods of increased uncertainty that could signal potential market turning points.
Volatility Indices and Their Relevance
Volatility indices like the VIX are considered “fear gauges” as they reflect the market’s expectation of future volatility derived from the pricing of options. A rising VIX typically signals increasing investor uncertainty and fear, which often precedes market corrections or significant price movements. In contrast, a falling VIX may suggest complacency or confidence in continued market stability (Whaley, 2000).
The other volatility indices incorporated in the indicator script, such as the GVZ (Gold Volatility Index) and OVX (Oil Volatility Index), capture the market’s perception of volatility in specific asset classes. For instance, GVZ reflects market expectations for volatility in the gold market, which can be influenced by factors such as geopolitical instability, inflation expectations, and changes in investor sentiment toward safe-haven assets. Similarly, OVX tracks the implied volatility of crude oil options, which is a crucial factor for predicting price movements in energy markets, often driven by geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, and supply-demand imbalances (Pindyck, 2004).
Using the Indicator to Identify Market Movements
The volatility indicator alerts traders when specific volatility indices exceed a defined threshold, which may signal a change in market sentiment or an upcoming price movement. These thresholds, set by the user, are typically based on historical levels of volatility that have preceded significant market changes. When a volatility index exceeds this threshold, it suggests that market participants expect greater uncertainty, which often correlates with increased price volatility and the possibility of a trend reversal.
For example, if the VIX exceeds a pre-determined level (e.g., 30), it could indicate that investors are anticipating heightened volatility in the equity markets, potentially signaling a downturn or correction in the broader market. On the other hand, if the OVX rises significantly, it could point to an upcoming sharp movement in crude oil prices, driven by changing market expectations about supply, demand, or geopolitical risks (Geman, 2005).
Practical Application
To effectively use this volatility indicator in market analysis, traders should monitor the alert signals generated when any of the volatility indices surpass their thresholds. This can be used to identify periods of market uncertainty or potential market turning points across different sectors, including equities, commodities, and currencies. The indicator can help traders prepare for increased price movements, adjust their risk management strategies, or even take advantage of anticipated price swings through options trading or volatility-based strategies (Black & Scholes, 1973).
Traders may also use this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools to validate the potential for significant market movements. For example, if the VIX exceeds its threshold and the market is simultaneously approaching a critical technical support or resistance level, the trader might consider entering a position that capitalizes on the anticipated price breakout or reversal.
Conclusion
This volatility indicator is a robust tool for identifying market conditions that are conducive to significant price movements. By tracking the behavior of key volatility indices, traders can gain insights into the market’s expectations of future price fluctuations, enabling them to make more informed decisions regarding market entries and exits. Understanding and monitoring volatility can be particularly valuable during times of heightened uncertainty, as changes in volatility often precede substantial shifts in market direction (French et al., 1987).
References
• Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.
• Christoffersen, P. F. (1998). Evaluating Interval Forecasts. International Economic Review, 39(4), 841-862.
• Whaley, R. E. (2000). Derivatives on Market Volatility. Journal of Derivatives, 7(4), 71-82.
• Pindyck, R. S. (2004). Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives. Journal of Futures Markets, 24(11), 973-987.
• Geman, H. (2005). Commodities and Commodity Derivatives: Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy. John Wiley & Sons.
• Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
• French, K. R., Schwert, G. W., & Stambaugh, R. F. (1987). Expected Stock Returns and Volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 19(1), 3-29.
Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 This is HADES (Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing) : fully data-driven & adaptive exponential smoothing method, that gains all the necessary info directly from data in the most natural way and needs no subjective parameters & no optimizations. It gets applied to data itself -> to fit residuals & one-point forecast errors, all at O(1) algo complexity. I designed it for streaming high-frequency univariate time series data, such as medical sensor readings, orderbook data, tick charts, requests generated by a backend, etc.
The HADES method is:
fit & forecast = a + b * (1 / alpha + T - 1)
T = 0 provides in-sample fit for the current datum, and T + n provides forecast for n datapoints.
y = input time series
a = y, if no previous data exists
b = 0, if no previous data exists
otherwise:
a = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * a
b = alpha * (a - a ) + (1 - alpha) * b
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
len = min(ceil(exp(1 / sig)), available data)
sig = sqrt(Absolute net change in y / Sum of absolute changes in y)
For the start datapoint when both numerator and denominator are zeros, we define 0 / 0 = 1
...
The same set of operations gets applied to the data first, then to resulting fit absolute residuals to build prediction interval, and finally to absolute forecasting errors (from one-point ahead forecast) to build forecasting interval:
prediction interval = data fit +- resoduals fit * k
forecasting interval = data opf +- errors fit * k
where k = multiplier regulating intervals width, and opf = one-point forecasts calculated at each time t
...
How-to:
0) Apply to your data where it makes sense, eg. tick data;
1) Use power transform to compensate for multiplicative behavior in case it's there;
2) If you have complete data or only the data you need, like the full history of adjusted close prices: go to the next step; otherwise, guided by your goal & analysis, adjust the 'start index' setting so the calculations will start from this point;
3) Use prediction interval to detect significant deviations from the process core & make decisions according to your strategy;
4) Use one-point forecast for nowcasting;
5) Use forecasting intervals to ~ understand where the next datapoints will emerge, given the data-generating process will stay the same & lack structural breaks.
I advise k = 1 or 1.5 or 4 depending on your goal, but 1 is the most natural one.
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Why exponential smoothing at all? Why the double one? Why adaptive? Why not Holt's method?
1) It's O(1) algo complexity & recursive nature allows it to be applied in an online fashion to high-frequency streaming data; otherwise, it makes more sense to use other methods;
2) Double exponential smoothing ensures we are taking trends into account; also, in order to model more complex time series patterns such as seasonality, we need detrended data, and this method can be used to do it;
3) The goal of adaptivity is to eliminate the window size question, in cases where it doesn't make sense to use cumulative moving typical value;
4) Holt's method creates a certain interaction between level and trend components, so its results lack symmetry and similarity with other non-recursive methods such as quantile regression or linear regression. Instead, I decided to base my work on the original double exponential smoothing method published by Rob Brown in 1956, here's the original source , it's really hard to find it online. This cool dude is considered the one who've dropped exponential smoothing to open access for the first time🤘🏻
R&D; log & explanations
If you wanna read this, you gotta know, you're taking a great responsability for this long journey, and it gonna be one hell of a trip hehe
Machine learning, apprentissage automatique, машинное обучение, digital signal processing, statistical learning, data mining, deep learning, etc., etc., etc.: all these are just artificial categories created by the local population of this wonderful world, but what really separates entities globally in the Universe is solution complexity / algorithmic complexity.
In order to get the game a lil better, it's gonna be useful to read the HTES script description first. Secondly, let me guide you through the whole R&D; process.
To discover (not to invent) the fundamental universal principle of what exponential smoothing really IS, it required the review of the whole concept, understanding that many things don't add up and don't make much sense in currently available mainstream info, and building it all from the beginning while avoiding these very basic logical & implementation flaws.
Given a complete time t, and yet, always growing time series population that can't be logically separated into subpopulations, the very first question is, 'What amount of data do we need to utilize at time t?'. Two answers: 1 and all. You can't really gain much info from 1 datum, so go for the second answer: we need the whole dataset.
So, given the sequential & incremental nature of time series, the very first and basic thing we can do on the whole dataset is to calculate a cumulative , such as cumulative moving mean or cumulative moving median.
Now we need to extend this logic to exponential smoothing, which doesn't use dataset length info directly, but all cool it can be done via a formula that quantifies the relationship between alpha (smoothing parameter) and length. The popular formulas used in mainstream are:
alpha = 1 / length
alpha = 2 / (length + 1)
The funny part starts when you realize that Cumulative Exponential Moving Averages with these 2 alpha formulas Exactly match Cumulative Moving Average and Cumulative (Linearly) Weighted Moving Average, and the same logic goes on:
alpha = 3 / (length + 1.5) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with quadratic weights, and
alpha = 4 / (length + 2) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with cubic weghts, and so on...
It all just cries in your shoulder that we need to discover another, native length->alpha formula that leverages the recursive nature of exponential smoothing, because otherwise, it doesn't make sense to use it at all, since the usual CMA and CMWA can be computed incrementally at O(1) algo complexity just as exponential smoothing.
From now on I will not mention 'cumulative' or 'linearly weighted / weighted' anymore, it's gonna be implied all the time unless stated otherwise.
What we can do is to approach the thing logically and model the response with a little help from synthetic data, a sine wave would suffice. Then we can think of relationships: Based on algo complexity from lower to higher, we have this sequence: exponential smoothing @ O(1) -> parametric statistics (mean) @ O(n) -> non-parametric statistics (50th percentile / median) @ O(n log n). Based on Initial response from slow to fast: mean -> median Based on convergence with the real expected value from slow to fast: mean (infinitely approaches it) -> median (gets it quite fast).
Based on these inputs, we need to discover such a length->alpha formula so the resulting fit will have the slowest initial response out of all 3, and have the slowest convergence with expected value out of all 3. In order to do it, we need to have some non-linear transformer in our formula (like a square root) and a couple of factors to modify the response the way we need. I ended up with this formula to meet all our requirements:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length * 2) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 8)
^^ as you can see on the screenshot; where the red line is median, the blue line is the mean, and the purple line is exponential smoothing with the formulas you've just seen, we've met all the requirements.
Now we just have to do the same procedure to discover the length->alpha formula but for double exponential smoothing, which models trends as well, not just level as in single exponential smoothing. For this comparison, we need to use linear regression and quantile regression instead of the mean and median.
Quantile regression requires a non-closed form solution to be solved that you can't really implement in Pine Script, but that's ok, so I made the tests using Python & sklearn:
paste.pics
^^ on this screenshot, you can see the same relationship as on the previous screenshot, but now between the responses of quantile regression & linear regression.
I followed the same logic as before for designing alpha for double exponential smoothing (also considered the initial overshoots, but that's a little detail), and ended up with this formula:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
Btw, given the pattern you see in the resulting formulas for single and double exponential smoothing, if you ever want to do triple (not Holt & Winters) exponential smoothing, you'll need len * 2 , and just len * 1 for quadruple exponential smoothing. I hope that based on this sequence, you see the hint that Maybe 4 rounds is enough.
Now since we've dealt with the length->alpha formula, we can deal with the adaptivity part.
Logically, it doesn't make sense to use a slower-than-O(1) method to generate input for an O(1) method, so it must be something universal and minimalistic: something that will help us measure consistency in our data, yet something far away from statistics and close enough to topology.
There's one perfect entity that can help us, this is fractal efficiency. The way I define fractal efficiency can be checked at the very beginning of the post, what matters is that I add a square root to the formula that is not typically added.
As explained in the description of my metric QSFS , one of the reasons for SQRT-transformed values of fractal efficiency applied in moving window mode is because they start to closely resemble normal distribution, yet with support of (0, 1). Data with this interesting property (normally distributed yet with finite support) can be modeled with the beta distribution.
Another reason is, in infinitely expanding window mode, fractal efficiency of every time series that exhibits randomness tends to infinitely approach zero, sqrt-transform kind of partially neutralizes this effect.
Yet another reason is, the square root might better reflect the dimensional inefficiency or degree of fractal complexity, since it could balance the influence of extreme deviations from the net paths.
And finally, fractals exhibit power-law scaling -> measures like length, area, or volume scale in a non-linear way. Adding a square root acknowledges this intrinsic property, while connecting our metric with the nature of fractals.
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I suspect that, given analogies and connections with other topics in geometry, topology, fractals and most importantly positive test results of the metric, it might be that the sqrt transform is the fundamental part of fractal efficiency that should be applied by default.
Now the last part of the ballet is to convert our fractal efficiency to length value. The part about inverse proportionality is obvious: high fractal efficiency aka high consistency -> lower window size, to utilize only the last data that contain brand new information that seems to be highly reliable since we have consistency in the first place.
The non-obvious part is now we need to neutralize the side effect created by previous sqrt transform: our length values are too low, and exponentiation is the perfect candidate to fix it since translating fractal efficiency into window sizes requires something non-linear to reflect the fractal dynamics. More importantly, using exp() was the last piece that let the metric shine, any other transformations & formulas alike I've tried always had some weird results on certain data.
That exp() in the len formula was the last piece that made it all work both on synthetic and on real data.
^^ a standalone script calculating optimal dynamic window size
Omg, THAT took time to write. Comment and/or text me if you need
...
"Versace Pip-Boy, I'm a young gun coming up with no bankroll" 👻
∞
CSP Key Level Finder This script is designed for option sellers, particularly those using strategies like cash-secured puts (CSPs), to help automate the process of identifying key levels in the market. The core functionality is to calculate a specific price level where a 5% return can be achieved based on the historical volatility of the underlying asset. This level is visually plotted on a chart to guide traders in making more informed decisions without manually calculating the thresholds themselves.
The script incorporates implied volatility (IV) data to determine the volatility rank of the asset and calculates historical volatility (HV) based on price movements. These volatility measures help assess market conditions. The resulting key level is drawn as a line on the chart, along with a label that includes relevant information about volatility, making it easier for traders to evaluate potential option selling strategies.
Additionally, the script includes user input options, allowing users to control when to display the key level on the chart, offering flexibility based on individual needs. Overall, the script provides a visual aid for option sellers to streamline the process of identifying attractive entry points.
Digital Clock with Market Status and AlertsDigital Clock with Market Status and Alerts - 日本語解説は下記
Overview:
The Digital Clock with Market Status and Alerts indicator is designed to display the current time in various global time zones while also providing the status of major financial markets such as Tokyo, London, and New York. This indicator helps traders monitor the open and close times of different markets and alerts them when a market opens. Customizable options are provided for table positioning, background, text colors, and font size.
Key Features:
Real-Time Digital Clock: The indicator shows the current time in your selected time zone (Asia/Tokyo, America/New_York, Europe/London, Australia/Sydney). The time updates in real-time and includes hours, minutes, and seconds, providing a convenient and accurate way to monitor time across different trading sessions.
Global Market Status: Displays the open or closed status of major financial markets.
・Tokyo Market: Open from 9:00 AM to 3:00 PM (JST).
・London Market: Open from 16:00 to 24:00 during summer time and from 17:00 to 1:00 during winter time (JST).
・New York Market: Open from 21:00 to 5:00 during summer time and from 22:00 to 6:00 during winter time (JST).
Customizable Display:
・Background Color: The indicator allows you to set the background color for the clock display, while the leftmost empty cell can be independently customized with its own background color for table alignment.
・Clock and Market Status Colors: Separate color options are available for the clock text, market status during open, and market status during closed periods.
・Text Size: You can adjust the size of the text (small, normal, large) to fit your preferences.
・Table Position: You can position the digital clock and market status table in different locations on the chart: top left, top center, top right, bottom left, bottom center, and bottom right.
Alerts for Market Opening: The indicator will trigger alerts when a market (Tokyo, London, or New York) opens, notifying traders in real-time. This can help ensure that you don't miss any important market openings.
How to Use:
Setup:
Apply the Indicator: Add the Digital Clock with Market Status and Alerts indicator to your chart. Customize the time zone, text size, background colors, and table position based on your preferences.
Monitor Market Status: Watch the market status displayed for Tokyo, London, and New York to keep track of market openings and closings in real-time.
Receive Alerts: The indicator provides built-in alerts for market openings, helping you stay informed when a key market opens for trading.
Time Monitoring:
・Real-Time Clock: The current time is displayed with hours, minutes, and seconds for accurate tracking. The clock updates every second and reflects the selected time zone.
・Global Time Zones: Choose your desired time zone (Tokyo, New York, London, Sydney) to monitor the time most relevant to your trading strategy.
Market Status:
・Tokyo Market: The status will display "Tokyo OPEN" when the Tokyo market is active, and "Tokyo CLOSED" when it is outside of trading hours.
・London Market: Similarly, the indicator will show "London OPEN" or "London CLOSED" depending on whether the London market is currently active.
・New York Market: The New York market status follows the same structure, showing "NY OPEN" or "NY CLOSED."
Customization:
・Table Positioning: Easily move the table to the desired location on the chart to avoid overlap with other chart elements. The leftmost empty cell helps with alignment.
・Text and Background Color: Adjust the text and background colors to suit your personal preferences. You can also set independent colors for open and closed market statuses to easily distinguish between them.
Cautions and Disclaimer:
・Indicator Modifications: This indicator may be updated without prior notice, which could change or remove certain features.
・Trade Responsibility: This indicator is a tool to assist your trading, but responsibility for all trades remains with you. No guarantee of profit or success is implied, and losses can occur. Use it alongside your own analysis and strategy.
Digital Clock with Market Status and Alerts - 解説と使い方
概要:
Digital Clock with Market Status and Alerts インジケーターは、さまざまな世界のタイムゾーンで現在の時刻を表示し、東京、ロンドン、ニューヨークなどの主要な金融市場のステータスを提供します。このインジケーターにより、複数の市場のオープンおよびクローズ時間をリアルタイムで監視でき、市場がオープンする際にアラートを受け取ることができます。テーブルの位置、背景色、テキストカラー、フォントサイズなどのカスタマイズが可能です。
主な機能:
リアルタイムデジタル時計: 選択したタイムゾーン（東京、ニューヨーク、ロンドン、シドニー）の現在時刻を表示します。リアルタイムで更新され、時間、分、秒を正確に表示します。
世界の市場ステータス: 主要な金融市場のオープン/クローズ状況を表示します。
・東京市場: 午前9時～午後3時（日本時間）。
・ロンドン市場: 夏時間では16時～24時、冬時間では17時～1時（日本時間）。
・ニューヨーク市場: 夏時間では21時～5時、冬時間では22時～6時（日本時間）。
カスタマイズ可能な表示設定:
・背景色: 時計表示の背景色を設定できます。また、テーブルの左側に空白のセルを配置し、独立した背景色を設定することでテーブルの配置調整が可能です。
・時計と市場ステータスの色: 時計テキスト、オープン市場、クローズ市場の色を個別に設定できます。
・テキストサイズ: 小、標準、大から選択し、テキストサイズをカスタマイズ可能です。
・テーブル位置: デジタル時計と市場ステータスのテーブルをチャートのさまざまな場所（左上、中央上、右上、左下、中央下、右下）に配置できます。
市場オープン時のアラート: 市場（東京、ロンドン、ニューヨーク）がオープンするときにアラートを発し、リアルタイムで通知されます。これにより、重要な市場のオープン時間を逃さないようサポートします。
使い方:
セットアップ:
インジケーターを適用: チャートに「Digital Clock with Market Status and Alerts」インジケーターを追加し、タイムゾーン、テキストサイズ、背景色、テーブル位置を好みに応じてカスタマイズします。
市場ステータスを確認: 東京、ロンドン、ニューヨークの市場ステータスをリアルタイムで表示し、オープン/クローズ時間を把握できます。
アラートを受け取る: 市場オープン時のアラート機能により、重要な市場のオープンを見逃さないように通知が届きます。
時間管理:
・リアルタイム時計: 現在の時刻が秒単位で表示され、選択したタイムゾーンに基づいて正確に追跡できます。
・グローバルタイムゾーン: 東京、ニューヨーク、ロンドン、シドニーなど、トレードに関連するタイムゾーンを選択して監視できます。
市場ステータス:
・東京市場: 東京市場が開いていると「Tokyo OPEN」と表示され、閉じている場合は「Tokyo CLOSED」と表示されます。
・ロンドン市場: 同様に、「London OPEN」または「London CLOSED」が表示され、ロンドン市場のステータスを確認できます。
・ニューヨーク市場: ニューヨーク市場も「NY OPEN」または「NY CLOSED」で現在の状況が表示されます。
カスタマイズ:
・テーブル位置の調整: テーブルの位置を簡単に調整し、チャート上の他の要素と重ならないように配置できます。左側の空白セルで位置調整が可能です。
・テキストと背景色のカスタマイズ: テキストと背景の色を自分の好みに合わせて調整できます。また、オープン時とクローズ時の市場ステータスを区別するため、独立した色設定が可能です。
注意事項と免責事項:
・インジケーターの変更: このインジケーターは、予告なく変更や機能の削除が行われる場合があります。
・トレード責任: このインジケーターはトレードをサポートするツールであり、トレードに関する全責任はご自身にあります。利益を保証するものではなく、損失が発生する可能性があります。自分の分析や戦略と組み合わせて使用してください。
Composite Momentum█ Introduction
The Composite Momentum Indicator is a tool we came across that we found to be useful at detecting implied tops and bottoms within quick market cycles. Its approach to analyzing momentum through a combination of moving averages and summation techniques makes it a useful addition to the range of available indicators on TradingView.
█ How It Works
This indicator operates by calculating the difference between two moving averages—one fast and one slow, which can be customized by the user. The difference between these two averages is then expressed as a percentage of the fast moving average, forming the core momentum value which is then smoothed with an Exponential Moving Average is applied. The smoothed momentum is then compared across periods to identify directional changes in direction
Furthermore, the script calculates the absolute differences between consecutive momentum values. These differences are used to determine periods of momentum acceleration or deceleration, aiming to establish potential reversals.
In addition to tracking momentum changes, the indicator sums positive and negative momentum changes separately over a user-defined period. This summation is intended to provide a clearer picture of the prevailing market bias—whether it’s leaning towards strength or weakness.
Finally, the summed-up values are normalized to a percentage scale. This normalization helps in identifying potential tops and bottoms by comparing the relative strength of the momentum within a given cycle.
█ Usage
This indicator is primarily useful for traders who focus on detecting quick cycle tops and bottoms. It provides a view of momentum shifts that can signal these extremes, though it’s important to use it in conjunction with other tools and market analysis techniques. Given its ability to highlight potential reversals, it may be of interest to those who seek to understand short-term market dynamics.
█ Disclaimer
This script was discovered without any information about its author or original intent but was nonetheless ported from its original format that is available publicly. It’s provided here for educational purposes and should not be considered a guaranteed method for market analysis. Users are encouraged to test and understand the indicator thoroughly before applying it in real trading scenarios.
IV Rank Oscillator by dinvestorqShort Title: IVR OscSlg
Description:
The IV Rank Oscillator is a custom indicator designed to measure and visualize the Implied Volatility (IV) Rank using Historical Volatility (HV) as a proxy. This indicator helps traders determine whether the current volatility level is relatively high or low compared to its historical levels over a specified period.
Key Features :
Historical Volatility (HV) Calculation: Computes the historical volatility based on the standard deviation of logarithmic returns over a user-defined period.
IV Rank Calculation: Normalizes the current HV within the range of the highest and lowest HV values over the past 252 periods (approximately one year) to generate the IV Rank.
IV Rank Visualization: Plots the IV Rank, along with reference lines at 50 (midline), 80 (overbought), and 20 (oversold), making it easy to interpret the relative volatility levels.
Historical Volatility Plot: Optionally plots the Historical Volatility for additional reference.
Usage:
IV Rank : Use the IV Rank to assess the relative level of volatility. High IV Rank values (close to 100) indicate that the current volatility is high relative to its historical range, while low IV Rank values (close to 0) indicate low relative volatility.
Reference Lines: The overbought (80) and oversold (20) lines help identify extreme volatility conditions, aiding in trading decisions.
Example Use Case:
A trader can use the IV Rank Oscillator to identify potential entry and exit points based on the volatility conditions. For instance, a high IV Rank may suggest a period of high market uncertainty, which could be a signal for options traders to consider strategies like selling premium. Conversely, a low IV Rank might indicate a more stable market condition.
Parameters:
HV Calculation Length: Adjustable period length for the historical volatility calculation (default: 20 periods).
This indicator is a powerful tool for options traders, volatility analysts, and any market participant looking to gauge market conditions based on historical volatility patterns.
