IV PercentileIV Percentile Indicator - Brief Description
What It Does
The IV Percentile Indicator measures where current implied volatility ranks compared to the past year, showing what percentage of time volatility was lower than today's level.
How It Works
Data Collection:
Tracks implied volatility (or historical volatility as proxy) for each trading day
Stores the last 252 days (1 year) of volatility readings
Uses VIX data for SPY/SPX, historical volatility for other stocks
Calculation:
IV Percentile = (Days with IV below current level) ÷ (Total days) × 100
Example: If IV Percentile = 75%, it means current volatility is higher than 75% of the past year's readings.
Visual Output
Main Display:
Blue line showing percentile (0-100%)
Reference lines at key levels (20%, 30%, 50%, 70%, 80%)
Color-coded backgrounds for quick identification
Info table with current readings
Key Levels:
80%+ (Red): Very high IV → Sell premium
70-79% (Orange): High IV → Consider selling
30-20% (Green): Low IV → Consider buying
<20% (Bright Green): Very low IV → Buy premium
Trading Application
When IV Percentile is HIGH (70%+):
Options are expensive relative to recent history
Good time to sell premium (iron condors, credit spreads)
Expect volatility to decrease toward normal levels
When IV Percentile is LOW (30%-):
Options are cheap relative to recent history
Good time to buy premium (straddles, long options)
Expect volatility to increase from compressed levels
Core Logic
The indicator helps answer: "Is this a good time to buy or sell options based on how expensive/cheap they are compared to recent history?" It removes the guesswork from volatility timing by providing historical context for current option prices.
Pesquisar nos scripts por "implied"
ADR, ATR & VOL OverlayThis is a combined version of 2 of my other indicators:
ADR / ATR Overlay
VOL / AVG Overlay
This indicator will display the following as an overlay on your chart:
ADR
% of ADR
ADR % of Price
ATR
% of ATR
ATR % of Price
Custom Session Volume
Average For Selected Session
Volume Percentage Comparison
Description:
ADR : Average Day Range
% of ADR : Percentage that the current price move has covered its average.
ADR % of Price : The percentage move implied by the average range.
ATR : Average True Range
% of ATR : Percentage that the current price move has covered its average.
ATR % of Price : The percentage move implied by the average true range.
Custom Session Volume : User chosen time frame to monitor volume
Average For Selected Session : Average for the custom session volume
Volume Percentage Comparison : Current session compared to the average (calculated at session close)
Options:
ADR/ATR:
Time Frame
Length
Smoothing
Volume:
Set Custom Time Frame For Calculations
Set Custom Time Frame For Average Comparison
Set Custom Time Zone
Table:
Enable / Disable Each Value
Change Text Color
Change Background Color
Change Table location
Add/Remove extra row for placement
ADR / ATR Example:
The ADR and ATR can be used to provide information about average price moves to help set targets, stop losses, entries and exits based on the potential average moves.
Example: If the "% of ADR" is reading 100%, then 100% of the asset's average price range has been covered, suggesting that an additional move beyond the range has a lower probability.
Example: "ADR % of Price" provides potential price movement in percentage which can be used to asses R/R for asset.
Example: ADR (D) reading is 100% at market close but ATR (D) is at 70% at close. This suggests that there is a potential (coverage) move of 30% in Pre/Post market as suggested by averages.
Custom Volume Session Example:
Set indicator to 30 period average. Set custom time frame to 9:30am to 10:30am Eastern/New York.
When the time frame for the calculation is closed, the indicator will provide a comparison of the current days volume compared to the average of 30 previous days for that same time frame and display it as a percentage in the table.
In this example you could compare how the first hour of the trading day compares to the previous 30 day's average, aiding in evaluating the potential volume for the remainder of the day.
Notes:
Times must be entered in 24 hour format. (1pm = 13:00 etc.)
Volume indicator is for Intra-day time frames, not > Day.
How I use these values:
I use these calculations to determine if a ticker symbol has the necessary range to achieve target gains, to determine if the price oscillation is within "normal" ranges to determine if the trading day will be choppy, and to determine placement of stops and targets within average ranges in combination with support, resistance and retracement levels.
ADR & ATR OverlayADR & ATR Overlay
This indicator will display the following as an overlay on your chart:
ADR
% of ADR
ADR % of Price
ATR
% of ATR
ATR % of Price
Description:
ADR : Average Day Range
% of ADR : Percentage that the current price move has covered its average.
ADR % of Price : The percentage move implied by the average range.
ATR : Average True Range
% of ATR : Percentage that the current price move has covered its average.
ATR % of Price : The percentage move implied by the average true range.
Options:
Time Frame
Length
Smoothing
Enable or Disable each value
Text Color
Background Color
How to use this indicator:
The ADR and ATR can be used to provide information about average price moves to help set targets, stop losses, entries and exits based on the potential average moves.
Example: If the "% of ADR" is reading 100%, then 100% of the asset's average price range has been covered, suggesting that an additional move beyond the range has a lower probability.
Example: "ADR % of Price" provides potential price movement in percentage which can be used to asses R/R for asset.
Example: ADR (D) reading is 100% at market close but ATR (D) is at 70% at close. This suggests that there is a potential move of 30% in Pre/Post market as suggested by averages.
Notes:
These indicators are available as oscillators to place under your chart through trading view but this indicator will place them on the chart in numerical only format.
Please feel free to modify this script if you like but please acknowledge me, I am only a hobby coder so this takes some time & effort.
Tomas' Financial Conditions Z Score"The indicator is a composite z-score comprised of the following four components (equally-weighted):
Credit spreads - ICE BofA High Yield Option Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) and ICE BofA Corporate Index Option Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Volatility indexes - VIX (S&P 500 implied volatility) and MOVE (US Treasury bond implied volatility)
I've got it set to a 160-day lookback period, which I think is roughly the best setting after some tinkering.
When the z-score is above zero, it throws a red signal - and when the z-score is below zero, it throws a green signal.
This indicator is a follow-on from the "traffic light financial conditions indicator" that I wrote a thread about a couple of months ago.
I moved on from that previous indicator because it is based on the Federal Reserve's NFCI, which is regularly revised, but I didn't take that into account at the time.
So not a great real-time indicator, if the signal can be subsequently revised in the opposite direction weeks later.
This new indicator is based on real-time market data, so there's no revisions, and it also updates daily, as opposed to weekly for the NFCI"
IV Rank/Percentile with Williams VIX FixDisplay IV Rank / IV Percentile
This indicator is based on William's VixFix, which replicates the VIX—a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The key advantage of the VixFix is that it can be applied to any security, not just the SPX.
IV Rank is calculated by identifying the highest and lowest implied volatility (IV) values over a selected number of past periods. It then determines where the current IV lies as a percentage between these two extremes. For example, if over the past five periods the highest IV was 30%, the lowest was 10%, and the current IV is 20%, the IV Rank would be 50%, since 20% is halfway between 10% and 30%.
IV Percentile, on the other hand, considers all past IV values—not just the highest and lowest—and calculates the percentage of these values that are below the current IV. For instance, if the past five IV values were 30%, 10%, 11%, 15%, and 17%, and the current IV is 20%, the IV Rank remains at 50%. However, the IV Percentile is 80% because 4 out of the 5 past values (80%) are below the current IV of 20%.
VIX Statistical Sentiment Index [Nasan]** THIS IS ONLY FOR US STOCK MARKET**
The indicator analyzes market sentiment by computing the Rate of Change (ROC) for the VIX and S&P 500, visualizing the data as histograms with conditional coloring. It measures the correlation between the VIX, the specific stock, and the S&P 500, displaying the results on the chart. The reliability measure combines these correlations, offering an overall assessment of data robustness. One can use this information to gauge the inverse relationship between VIX and S&P 500, the alignment of the specific stock with the market, and the overall reliability of the correlations for informed decision-making based on the inverse relationship of VIX and price movement.
**WHEN THE VIX ROC IS ABOVE ZERO (RED COLOR) AND RASING ONE CAN EXPECT THE PRICE TO MOVE DOWNWARDS, WHEN THE VIX ROC IS BELOW ZERO (GREEN)AND DECREASING ONE CAN EXPECT THE PRICE TO MOVE UPWARDS"
Understanding the VIX Concept:
The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a widely used indicator in finance that measures the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days. Here are key points about the VIX:
Fear Gauge:
Often referred to as the "fear gauge," the VIX tends to rise during periods of market uncertainty or fear and fall during calmer market conditions.
Inverse Relationship with Market:
The VIX typically has an inverse relationship with the stock market. When the stock market experiences a sell-off, the VIX tends to rise, indicating increased expected volatility.
Implied Volatility:
The VIX is derived from the prices of options on the S&P 500. It represents the market's expectations for future volatility and is often referred to as "implied volatility."
Contrarian Indicator:
Extremely high VIX levels may indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential market rebound. Conversely, very low VIX levels may signal complacency and a potential reversal.
VIX vs. SPX Correlation:
This correlation measures the strength and direction of the relationship between the VIX (Volatility Index) and the S&P 500 (SPX).
A negative correlation indicates an inverse relationship. When the VIX goes up, the SPX tends to go down, and vice versa.
The correlation value closer to -1 suggests a stronger inverse relationship between VIX and SPX.
Stock vs. SPX Correlation:
This correlation measures the strength and direction of the relationship between the closing price of the stock (retrieved using src1) and the S&P 500 (SPX).
This correlation helps assess how closely the stock's price movements align with the broader market represented by the S&P 500.
A positive correlation suggests that the stock tends to move in the same direction as the S&P 500, while a negative correlation indicates an opposite movement.
Reliability Measure:
Combines the squared values of the VIX vs. SPX and Stock vs. SPX correlations and takes the square root to create a reliability measure.
This measure provides an overall assessment of how reliable the correlation information is in guiding decision-making.
Interpretation:
A higher reliability measure implies that the correlations between VIX and SPX, as well as between the stock and SPX, are more robust and consistent.
One can use this reliability measure to gauge the confidence they can place in the correlations when making decisions about the specific stock based on VIX data and its correlation with the broader market.
Rule of 16 - LowerThe "Rule of 16" is a simple guideline used by traders and investors to estimate the expected annualized volatility of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) based on the level of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX, often referred to as the "fear gauge" or "fear index," measures the market's expectations for future volatility. It is calculated using the implied volatility of a specific set of S&P 500 options.
The Rule of 16 provides a rough approximation of the expected annualized percentage change in the S&P 500 based on the VIX level. Here's how it works:
Find the VIX level: Look up the current value of the VIX. Let's say it's currently at 20.
Apply the Rule of 16: Divide the VIX level by 16. In this example, 20 divided by 16 equals 1.25.
Result: The result of this calculation represents the expected annualized percentage change in the S&P 500. In this case, 1.25% is the estimated annualized volatility.
So, according to the Rule of 16, a VIX level of 20 suggests an expected annualized volatility of approximately 1.25% in the S&P 500.
Here's how you can use the Rule of 16:
Market Sentiment: The VIX is often used as an indicator of market sentiment. When the VIX is high (above its historical average), it suggests that investors expect higher market volatility, indicating potential uncertainty or fear in the markets. Conversely, when the VIX is low, it suggests lower expected volatility and potentially more confidence in the markets.
Risk Management: Traders and investors can use the Rule of 16 to estimate the potential risk associated with their portfolios. For example, if you have a portfolio of S&P 500 stocks and the VIX is at 20, you can use the Rule of 16 to estimate that the annualized volatility of your portfolio may be around 1.25%. This information can help you make decisions about position sizing and risk management.
Option Pricing: Options traders may use the Rule of 16 to get a quick estimate of the implied annualized volatility priced into S&P 500 options. It can help them assess whether options are relatively expensive or cheap based on the VIX level.
It's important to note that the Rule of 16 is a simplification and provides only a rough estimate of expected volatility. Market conditions and the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500 can change over time. Therefore, it should be used as a guideline rather than a precise forecasting tool. Traders and investors should consider other factors and use additional analysis to make informed decisions.
[blackcat] L1 Dynamic Volatility IndicatorThe volatility indicator (Volatility) is used to measure the magnitude and instability of price changes in financial markets or a specific asset. This thing is usually used to assess how risky the market is. The higher the volatility, the greater the fluctuation in asset prices, but brother, the risk is also relatively high! Here are some related terms and explanations:
- Historical Volatility: The actual volatility of asset prices over a certain period of time in the past. This thing is measured by calculating historical data.
- Implied Volatility: The volatility inferred from option market prices, used to measure market expectations for future price fluctuations.
- VIX Index (Volatility Index): Often referred to as the "fear index," it predicts the volatility of the US stock market within 30 days in advance. This is one of the most famous volatility indicators in global financial markets.
Volatility indicators are very important for investors and traders because they can help them understand how unstable and risky the market is, thereby making wiser investment decisions.
Today I want to introduce a volatility indicator that I have privately held for many years. It can use colors to judge sharp rises and falls! Of course, if you are smart enough, you can also predict some potential sharp rises and falls by looking at the trend!
In the financial field, volatility indicators measure the magnitude and instability of price changes in different assets. They are usually used to assess the level of market risk. The higher the volatility, the greater the fluctuation in asset prices and therefore higher risk. Historical Volatility refers to the actual volatility of asset prices over a certain period of time in the past, which can be measured by calculating historical data; while Implied Volatility is derived from option market prices and used to measure market expectations for future price fluctuations. In addition, VIX Index is commonly known as "fear index" and is used to predict volatility in the US stock market within 30 days. It is one of the most famous volatility indicators in global financial markets.
Volatility indicators are very important for investors and traders because they help them understand market uncertainty and risk, enabling them to make wiser investment decisions. The L1 Dynamic Volatility Indicator that I am introducing today is an indicator that measures volatility and can also judge sharp rises and falls through colors!
This indicator combines two technical indicators: Dynamic Volatility (DV) and ATR (Average True Range), displaying warnings about sharp rises or falls through color coding. DV has a slow but relatively smooth response, while ATR has a fast but more oscillating response. By utilizing their complementary characteristics, it is possible to construct a structure similar to MACD's fast-slow line structure. Of course, in order to achieve fast-slow lines for DV and ATR, first we need to unify their coordinate axes by normalizing them. Then whenever ATR's yellow line exceeds DV's purple line with both curves rapidly breaking through the threshold of 0.2, sharp rises or falls are imminent.
However, it is important to note that relying solely on the height and direction of these two lines is not enough to determine the direction of sharp rises or falls! Because they only judge the trend of volatility and cannot determine bull or bear markets! But it's okay, I have already considered this issue early on and added a magical gradient color band. When the color band gradually turns warm, it indicates a sharp rise; conversely, when the color band tends towards cool colors, it indicates a sharp fall! Of course, you won't see the color band in sideways consolidation areas, which avoids your involvement in unnecessary trades that would only waste your funds! This indicator is really practical and with it you can better assess market risks and opportunities!
CE - Market Performance TableThe 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 is a sophisticated market tool designed to provide valuable insights into the current market trends and the approximate current position in the Macroeconomic Regime.
Furthermore the 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 provides the Correlation Implied Trend for the Asset on the Chart. Lastly it provides information about current "RISK ON" or "RISK OFF" periods.
Methodology:
𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 tracks the 15 underlying Stock ETF's to identify their performance and puts the combined performances together to visualize 42MACRO's GRID Equity Model.
For this it uses the below ETF's:
Dividends (SPHD)
Low Beta (SPLV)
Quality (QUAL)
Defensives (DEF)
Growth (IWF)
High Beta (SPHB)
Cyclicals (IYT, IWN)
Value (IWD)
Small Caps (IWM)
Mid Caps (IWR)
Mega Cap Growth (MGK)
Size (OEF)
Momentum (MTUM)
Large Caps (IWB)
Overall Settings:
The main time values you want to change are:
Correlation Length
- Defines the time horizon for the Correlation Table
ROC Period
- Defines the time horizon for the Performance Table
Normalization lookback
- Defines the time horizon for the Trend calculation of the ETF's
- For longer term Trends over weeks or months a length of 50 is usually pretty accurate
Visuals:
There is a variety of options to change the visual settings of what is being plotted and the two table positions and additional considerations.
Everything that is relevant in the underlying logic that can help comprehension can be visualized with these options.
Market Correlation:
The Market Correlation Table takes the Correlation of the above ETF's to the Asset on the Chart, it furthermore uses the Normalized KAMA Oscillator by IkkeOmar to analyse the current trend of every single ETF.
It then Implies a Correlation based on the Trend and the Correlation to give a probabilistically adjusted expectation for the future Chart Asset Movement. This is strengthened by taking the average of all Implied Trends.
With this the Correlation Table provides valuable insights about probabilistically likely Movement of the Asset, for Traders and Investors alike, over the defined time duration.
Market Performance:
𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 is the actual valuable part of this Indicator.
It provides valuable information about the current market environment (whether it's risk on or risk off), the rough GRID models from 42MACRO and the actual market performance.
This allows you to obtain a deeper understanding of how the market works and makes it simple to identify the actual market direction.
Utility:
The 𝓜𝓪𝓻𝓴𝓮𝓽 𝓟𝓮𝓻𝓯𝓸𝓻𝓶𝓪𝓷𝓬𝓮 𝓣𝓪𝓫𝓵𝓮 is divided in 4 Sections which are the GRID regimes:
Economic Growth:
Goldilocks
Reflation
Economic Contraction:
Inflation
Deflation
Top 5 Equity Style Factors:
Are the values green for a specific Column? If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
Bottom 5 Equity Style Factors:
Are the values red for a specific Column? If so then the market reflects the corresponding GRID behavior.
So if we have Goldilocks as current regime we would see green values in the Top 5 Goldilocks Cells and red values in the Bottom 5 Goldilocks Cells.
You will find that Reflation will look similar, as it is also a sign of Economic Growth.
Same is the case for the two Contraction regimes.
VIX HeatmapVIX HeatMap
Instructions:
- To be used with the S&P500 index (ES, SPX, SPY, any S&P ETF) as that's the input from where the CBOE calculates and measures the VIX. Can also be used with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, & Nasdaq100.
Description:
- Expected Implied Volatility regime simplified & visualized. Know if we are in a high, medium, or low volatility regime, instantly.
- Ranges from Hot to Cold: The hotter the heat-map, the higher the implied volatility and fear & vice versa.
- The VIX HeatMap, color-maps important VIX levels (7 in this case) in measuring volatility for day trading & swing trading.
Using the VIX HeatMap:
- A LOW level volatility environment: Represented by "cooler" colors (Blue & White) depicts that the level of volatility and fear is low. Percentage moves on the index level are going to be tame and less volatile more often than not. Low fear = low perceived risk.
- A MEDIUM level volatility environment: Represented by "warmer" colors (Green & Yellow) depicts that the markets are transitioning from a calmer period or from a more fearful period. Market volatility here will be higher and provide more volatile swings in price.
- A HIGH level volatility environment: Represented by "hotter" colors (Orange, Red, & Purple) depicts that the markets are very fearful at the moment and will have big swings in both directions. Historically, extreme VIX levels tend to coincide with bottoms but are in no way predictive of the exact timing as the volatile moves can continue for an extended period of time.
- Transitioning between the 7 VIX Zones: Each and every one of these specific VIX zone levels is important.
1. Extreme low: <16
2. Low: 16 to 20
3. Normal: 20 to 24
4. Medium: 24 to 28
5. Med-High: 28 to 32
6. High: 32 to 36
7. Extreme high: >36
- These VIX levels in particular measure volatility changes that have a major impact on switching between smaller time frames and measuring depths of a sell move and vice versa. Each level also behaves as its own support & resistance level in terms of taking a bit of effort to switch regimes, and aids in identifying and measuring the potential depth of pullbacks in bull markets and bounces in bear markets to reveal reversal points.
- Examples of VIX level supports depicted on the chart marked with arrows. From left to right:
1. March 10th: Markets jumped 2 volatility levels in 2 days. The fluctuations from blue to yellow to green where a sign that price action would reverse from the selloff.
2. March 28th: As soon as we move from green to the blue VIX level (<20), markets began to rally and only ended when the volatility level moved sub VIX 16 (white).
3. May 4th & 24th: Next we see the 2 dips where volatility levels went from blue to green (VIX > 20), marked bottoms and reversed higher.
4. June 1st: We see a change in VIX regime yet again into lower VIX level and markets rocket higher.
Knowing the current VIX regime is a very important tool and aid in trading, now easily visualized.
SPX Expected MoveThis indicator plots the "expected move" of SPX for today's trading session. Expected move is the amount that SPX is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of implied volatility. The implied volatility in this indicator is computed from the current value of the VIX (or one of several volatility symbols available on Trading view). The computation is done using standard formula. The resulting plots are labeled as 1 and 2 standard deviations. The default values are to use VIX as well as 252 trading days in the years.
Use the square root of (days to expiration, or in this case a fraction of the day remaining) divided but the square root of (252, or number of trading days in a year).
timeRemaining = math.sqrt(DTE) / math.sqrt(252)
Standard deviation move = SPX bar closing price * (VIX/100) * timeRemaining
4C Expected Move (Weekly Options)This indicator plots the Expected Move (EM) calculated from weekly options pricing, for a quick visual reference.
The EM is the amount that a stock is predicted to increase or decrease from its current price, based on the current level of implied volatility.
This range can be viewed as support and resistance, or once price gets outside of the range, institutional hedging actions can accelerate the move in that direction.
The EM range is based on the Weekly close of the prior week.
It can be useful to know what the weekly EM range is for a stock to understand the probabilities of the overall distance, direction and volatility for the week.
To use this indicator you must have access to a broker with options data (not available on Tradingview).
Look at the stock's option chain and find the weekly expected move. You will have to do your own research to find where this information is displayed depending on your broker.
See screenshot example on the chart. This is the Thinkorswim platform's option chain, and the Implied Volatility % and the calculated EM is circled in red. Use the +- number in parentheses, NOT the % value.
Input that number into the indicator on a weekly basis, ideally on the weekend sometime after the cash market close on Friday, and before the Market open at the beginning of the trading week.
The indicator must be manually updated each week.
It will automatically start over at the beginning of the week.
Volatility barometerIt is the indicator that analyzes the behaviour of VIX against CBOE volaility indices (VIX3M, VIX6M and VIX1Y) and VIX futures (next contract to the front one - VX!2). Because VIX is a derivate of SPX, the indicator shall be used on the SPX chart (or equivalent like SPY).
When the readings get above 90 / below 10, it means the market is overbought / oversold in terms of implied volatility. However, it does not mean it will reverse - if the price go higher along with the indicator readings then everything is fine. There is an alarming situation when the SPX is diverging - e.g. the price go higher, the readings lower. It means the SPX does not play in the same team as IVOL anymore and might reverse.
You can use it in conjunction with other implied volatility indicators for stronger signals: the Correlation overlay ( - the indicator that measures the correlation between VVIX and VIX) and VVIX/VIX ratio (it generates a signal the ratio makes 50wk high).
Black Scholes Model [racer8]This is the Black Scholes Model. This indicator tells you the prices of both a call option & a put option.
Input variables are spot price, strike price, risk free rate %, days to maturity, and implied volatility %.
This indicator was made generally for educational purposes.
By using this indicator, you will develop a better understanding of how options are priced.
This indicator was made to be as simple as possible so that the user can easily understand it.
I recreated the Black Scholes Model because there is very little scripts on TV that are based on the Black Scholes Model.
I am aware that are Black Scholes Model (BSM) scripts already on TV, but mine is not the same. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there is a BSM script out there yet that relies on the exact same inputs that mine does.
Why use this indicator?
If you don't already have your own IV indicator...
You can use this indicator to approximate the value of implied volatility %.
You already know every input variable except IV%, and you know the call & put option prices.
So put in the numbers for each input and put a random number between 0 to 100 into the IV% input to get the options prices.
Adjust that random number for IV% until the output (options prices) matches correctly with what you already know they are to be.
This is called the trial and error method.
On the other hand, if you already know all input variables including IV%. Then you can use this indicator to find the call & put options prices directly.
Hope this helps. Enjoy 🙂
TradeVision Pro - Multi-Factor Analysis System═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
TRADEVISION PRO - MULTI-FACTOR ANALYSIS SYSTEM
Created by Zakaria Safri
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A comprehensive technical analysis tool combining multiple factors for
signal generation, trend analysis, and dynamic risk management visualization.
Designed for educational purposes to study multi-factor convergence trading
strategies across all markets and timeframes.
⚠️ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
This indicator is provided for EDUCATIONAL and INFORMATIONAL purposes only.
It does NOT constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves
substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and consult a
financial advisor before making trading decisions.
🎯 KEY FEATURES
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✅ MULTI-FACTOR SIGNAL GENERATION
• Price Volume Trend (PVT) analysis
• Rate of Change (ROC) momentum confirmation
• Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) trend filter
• Simple Moving Average (SMA) price smoothing
• Signals only when all factors align
✅ DYNAMIC RISK VISUALIZATION (Educational Only)
• ATR-based stop loss calculation
• Risk-reward based take profit levels (1-5 targets)
• Visual lines and labels showing entry, SL, and TPs
• Automatically adapts to market volatility
• ⚠️ VISUAL REFERENCE ONLY - Does not execute trades
✅ SUPPORT & RESISTANCE DETECTION
• Automatic pivot-based level identification
• Red dashed lines for resistance zones
• Green dashed lines for support areas
• Helps identify key price levels
✅ VWMA TREND BANDS
• Volume-weighted moving average with standard deviation
• Color-changing bands (Green = Uptrend, Red = Downtrend)
• Filled band area for easy visualization
• Volume-confirmed trend strength
✅ TREND DETECTION SYSTEM
• Counting-based trend confirmation
• Three states: Up Trend, Down Trend, Ranging
• Requires threshold of consecutive bars
• Independent trend validation
✅ PRICE RANGE VISUALIZATION
• High/Low range lines showing market structure
• Filled area highlighting price volatility
• Helps identify breakout zones
✅ COMPREHENSIVE INFO TABLE
• Real-time trend status
• Last signal type (BUY/SELL)
• Entry price display
• Stop loss level
• All active take profit levels
• Clean, professional layout
✅ OPTIONAL FEATURES
• Bar coloring by trend direction
• Customizable alert notifications
• Toggle visibility for all components
• Fully configurable parameters
📊 HOW IT WORKS
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SIGNAL METHODOLOGY:
BUY SIGNAL generates when ALL conditions are met:
• Smoothed price > Moving Average (upward price trend)
• PVT > PVT Average (volume supporting uptrend)
• ROC > 0 (positive momentum)
• Close > VWMA (above volume-weighted average)
SELL SIGNAL generates when ALL conditions are met:
• Smoothed price < Moving Average (downward price trend)
• PVT < PVT Average (volume supporting downtrend)
• ROC < 0 (negative momentum)
• Close < VWMA (below volume-weighted average)
This multi-factor approach filters out weak signals and waits for
strong convergence before generating alerts.
RISK CALCULATION:
Stop Loss = Entry ± (ATR × SL Multiplier)
• Uses Average True Range for volatility measurement
• Automatically adjusts to market conditions
Take Profit Levels = Entry ± (Risk Distance × TP Multiplier × Level)
• Risk Distance = |Entry - Stop Loss|
• Creates risk-reward based targets
• Example: TP Multiplier 1.0 = 1:1, 2:2, 3:3 risk-reward
⚠️ NOTE: All risk levels are VISUAL REFERENCES for educational study.
They do not execute trades automatically.
⚙️ SETTINGS GUIDE
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SIGNAL SETTINGS:
• Signal Length (14): Main calculation period for averages
• Smooth Length (8): Price data smoothing period
• PVT Length (14): Price Volume Trend calculation period
• ROC Length (9): Rate of Change momentum period
RISK MANAGEMENT (Visual Only):
• ATR Length (14): Volatility measurement lookback
• SL Multiplier (2.2): Stop loss distance (× ATR)
• TP Multiplier (1.0): Risk-reward ratio per TP level
• TP Levels (1-5): Number of take profit targets to display
• Show TP/SL Lines: Toggle visual reference lines
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE:
• Pivot Lookback (10): Sensitivity for S/R detection
• Show SR: Toggle support/resistance lines
VWMA BANDS:
• VWMA Length (20): Volume-weighted average period
• Show Bands: Toggle band visibility
TREND DETECTION:
• Trend Threshold (5): Consecutive bars required for trend
PRICE LINES:
• Period (20): High/low calculation lookback
• Show: Toggle price range visualization
DISPLAY OPTIONS:
• Signals: Show/hide BUY/SELL labels
• Table: Show/hide information panel
• Color Bars: Enable trend-based bar coloring
ALERTS:
• Enable: Activate alert notifications for signals
💡 USAGE INSTRUCTIONS
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RECOMMENDED APPROACH:
• Works on all timeframes (1m to Monthly)
• Suitable for all markets (Stocks, Forex, Crypto, etc.)
• Best used with additional analysis and confirmation
• Always practice proper risk management
ENTRY STRATEGY:
1. Wait for BUY or SELL signal to appear
2. Check trend table for trend confirmation
3. Verify VWMA band color matches signal direction
4. Look for nearby support/resistance confluence
5. Consider entering on next candle open
6. Use visual SL level for risk management
EXIT STRATEGY:
1. Use TP levels as potential exit zones
2. Consider scaling out at multiple TP levels
3. Exit on opposite signal
4. Adjust stops as trade progresses
5. Account for spread and slippage
TREND TRADING:
• "Up Trend" → Focus on BUY signals
• "Down Trend" → Focus on SELL signals
• "Ranging" → Wait for clear trend or use range strategies
🎨 VISUAL ELEMENTS
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• GREEN VWMA BANDS → Bullish trend indication
• RED VWMA BANDS → Bearish trend indication
• ORANGE DASHED LINE → Entry price reference
• RED SOLID LINE → Stop loss level
• GREEN DOTTED LINES → Take profit targets
• RED DASHED LINES → Resistance levels
• GREEN DASHED LINES → Support levels
• GREY FILLED AREA → Price high/low range
• GREEN BUY LABEL → Long signal
• RED SELL LABEL → Short signal
• BLUE INFO TABLE → Current trade details
• GREEN/RED BARS → Trend direction (optional)
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
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RISK WARNING:
• Trading involves substantial risk of loss
• You can lose more than your initial investment
• Past performance does not guarantee future results
• No indicator is 100% accurate
• Always use proper position sizing
• Never risk more than you can afford to lose
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE:
• This tool is for learning and research
• Not a complete trading system
• Should be combined with other analysis
• Requires interpretation and context
• Test thoroughly before live use
• Consider consulting a financial advisor
TECHNICAL LIMITATIONS:
• Signals lag price action (all indicators lag)
• False signals occur in choppy markets
• Works better in trending conditions
• Support/resistance levels are approximate
• TP/SL levels are suggestions, not guarantees
📚 METHODOLOGY
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This indicator combines established technical analysis concepts:
• Price Volume Trend (PVT): Volume-weighted price momentum
• Rate of Change (ROC): Momentum measurement
• Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): Trend identification
• Average True Range (ATR): Volatility measurement (J. Welles Wilder)
• Pivot Points: Support/resistance detection
All methods are based on publicly available technical analysis
principles. No proprietary or "secret" algorithms are used.
⚖️ FULL DISCLAIMER
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LIABILITY:
The creator (Zakaria Safri) assumes NO liability for:
• Trading losses or damages of any kind
• Loss of capital or profits
• Incorrect signal interpretation
• Technical issues, bugs, or errors
• Any consequences of using this tool
USER RESPONSIBILITY:
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that:
• You are solely responsible for your trading decisions
• You understand the substantial risks involved
• You will not hold the creator liable for losses
• You will conduct your own research and analysis
• You may consult a licensed financial professional
• You are using this tool entirely at your own risk
AS-IS PROVISION:
This indicator is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind,
express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of
merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement.
The creator is not a registered investment advisor, financial planner,
or broker-dealer. This tool is not approved or endorsed by any
financial authority.
📞 ABOUT THE CREATOR
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Created by: Zakaria Safri
Specialization: Technical analysis indicator development
Focus: Multi-factor analysis, risk visualization, trend detection
This is an educational tool designed to demonstrate technical
analysis concepts and multi-factor signal generation methods.
📋 VERSION INFO
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Version: 1.0
Platform: TradingView Pine Script v5
License: Mozilla Public License 2.0
Creator: Zakaria Safri
Year: 2024
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Study Carefully, Trade Wisely, Manage Risk Properly
TradeVision Pro - Educational Trading Tool
Created by Zakaria Safri
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First-Move-Wrong Toolkit [CHE] First-Move-Wrong Toolkit — Session-bound sweep rejection with structure confirmation
Summary
This indicator marks potential “first move wrong” reversals during a defined trading session. It looks for a quick sweep beyond the prior day high or low, or the opening range high or low, followed by rejection and a basic structure confirmation. Optional rules require a retest and a VWAP reclaim in the direction of the trade idea. The script renders session levels as right-extended lines, signals as labels, optional SL/TP guide lines for visualization, and background tints during sweep events. Pivots are confirmed using swing width, which reduces repaint risk compared to live swings.
Motivation: Why this design?
Intraday reversals often start with a liquidity sweep around obvious highs or lows. Acting on the sweep alone can be noisy, while waiting for structure break and a retest can be slow. This tool balances both by checking a sweep and rejection at session-relevant levels, then requiring a simple structure cue and, optionally, a retest and a VWAP filter. The goal is a clear, rule-based signal layer that is easy to audit on chart without hidden state.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline reference: Simple sweep detectors or basic CHOCH markers that ignore session context and liquidity anchors.
Architecture differences:
Session-aware opening range tracking that finalizes after the chosen minutes from session start.
Daily previous high and low pulled without lookahead, then extended forward as visual anchors.
Confirmed pivot highs and lows to avoid repaint from live, unconfirmed swings.
Optional retest rule using crossover or crossunder at the trigger level.
Optional VWAP filter to demand reclaim in the intended direction.
Global label cooldown to prevent clusters of signals.
Practical effect: Fewer one-off flips around noisy levels, clearer alignment with session structure, and compact visual feedback through lines, labels, and tints.
How it works (technical)
Levels: During the defined session, the script builds an opening range high and low until the configured minute mark after session start, then freezes those levels for the day. It also fetches the previous day high and low from the daily timeframe without lookahead and extends them forward.
Sweep and rejection: A sweep is defined as price moving beyond a target level and then rejecting back inside on the same bar. The script checks this condition separately for highs and lows against opening range and previous-day levels.
Structure validation: Confirmed pivot highs and lows are computed using a symmetric swing width. A bearish idea requires a prior sweep of a high plus a break through the last confirmed swing low. A bullish idea requires a prior sweep of a low plus a break through the last confirmed swing high.
Optional retest: If enabled, a bearish signal needs a cross under the bearish trigger level; a bullish signal needs a cross over the bullish trigger level.
VWAP filter (optional): The script requires a reclaim of VWAP in the intended direction when enabled.
State handling: Opening range values, previous-day lines, and the label cooldown timestamp are stored in persistent variables. Lines are created once and updated each bar to extend forward.
Repaint considerations: Pivots confirm only after the specified swing width, reducing repaint. The daily level request is performed without lookahead. Signals use closed-bar checks implied by crossover and crossunder logic.
Parameter Guide
Session (local) — Defines the active trading window. Default nine to seventeen. Narrower windows focus on the main session drive.
Opening Range (min) — Minutes from session start to finalize OR levels. Default fifteen. Shorter values react faster; longer values stabilize levels.
Use PrevDay H/L levels — Toggle previous-day anchors. On by default.
Use OR H/L levels — Toggle opening range anchors. On by default.
Equal H/L tolerance (ticks) — Intended tolerance for equal highs or lows. Default one. (Unknown/Optional) in current signals.
Swing width — Bars on both sides for confirmed pivots. Default two. Larger values reduce noise but confirm later.
Require CHOCH after sweep — Enforces structure break after a sweep. On by default.
Prefer retest entries — Requires crossover or crossunder of the trigger level. On by default.
VWAP filter — Demands a reclaim of VWAP in signal direction. Off by default.
TP in R (guide) — Multiplier for visual TP guides. Default one. Visualization only.
Show levels / Show signals / Show R-guides — Rendering toggles. R-guides are visual aids, not orders.
Label cooldown (bars) — Minimum bars between labels. Default five. Higher values reduce clusters.
Palette inputs — Colors and transparencies for levels, labels, VWAP, and tints.
Reading & Interpretation
Lines: Dotted lines represent opening range high and low after the OR window completes. Dashed lines represent previous-day high and low.
Signals: “Long” labels appear after a low-side sweep with rejection and structure confirmation, subject to optional retest and VWAP rules. “Short” labels mirror this on the high side.
Background tints: Red-tinted bars indicate a high-side sweep and rejection. Green-tinted bars indicate a low-side sweep and rejection.
R-guides: Circles display a visual stop level at the bar extreme and a target guide based on the selected multiple. They are informational only.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Session reversal scans: During the first hour, watch for sweeps around previous-day or opening range levels, then wait for structure confirmation and optional retest.
Trend following with filters: Combine signals with higher-timeframe structure or a moving average regime check. Ignore signals against the dominant regime.
Exits and stops: Use the visual stop as a reference near the sweep extreme; adapt the target guide to volatility and market conditions.
Multi-asset / Multi-TF: Works on intraday timeframes for liquid futures, indices, forex, and large-cap equities. Start with default settings and adjust swing width and OR minutes to instrument volatility.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint/confirmation: Pivots confirm after the swing window completes. Signals occur only when conditions are met on closed bars.
security()/HTF: Daily previous-day levels are requested without lookahead to reduce repaint.
Resources: Uses persistent variables and line updates per bar; no heavy loops or arrays.
Known limits: Signals can arrive later when swing width is large. Gaps around session boundaries may distort OR levels. VWAP behavior may vary with partial sessions or illiquid assets.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Starting point: Session nine to seventeen, opening range fifteen minutes, swing width two, CHOCH required, retest on, VWAP off, cooldown five bars.
Too many flips: Increase swing width, enable VWAP filter, or raise label cooldown.
Too sluggish: Reduce swing width or shorten the opening range window.
Too many session-level hits: Disable either previous-day levels or opening range levels to simplify context.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a session-aware visualization and signal layer focused on sweep-plus-structure behavior. It is not a complete trading system and does not manage orders, risk, or portfolio exposure. Use it with market structure, risk limits, and execution rules that fit your process.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Market Regime IndexThe Market Regime Index is a top-down macro regime nowcasting tool that offers a consolidated view of the market’s risk appetite. It tracks 32 of the world’s most influential markets across asset classes to determine investor sentiment by applying trend-following signals to each independent asset. It features adjustable parameters and a built-in alert system that notifies investors when conditions transition between Risk-On and Risk-Off regimes. The selected markets are grouped into equities (7), fixed income (9), currencies (7), commodities (5), and derivatives (4):
Equities = S&P 500 E-mini Index Futures, Nasdaq-100 E-mini Index Futures, Russell 2000 E-mini Index Futures, STOXX Europe 600 Index Futures, Nikkei 225 Index Futures, MSCI Emerging Markets Index Futures, and S&P 500 High Beta (SPHB)/Low Beta (SPLV) Ratio.
Fixed Income = US 10Y Treasury Yield, US 2Y Treasury Yield, US 10Y-02Y Yield Spread, German 10Y Bund Yield, UK 10Y Gilt Yield, US 10Y Breakeven Inflation Rate, US 10Y TIPS Yield, US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread, and US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread.
Currencies = US Dollar Index (DXY), Australian Dollar/US Dollar, Euro/US Dollar, Chinese Yuan/US Dollar, Pound Sterling/US Dollar, Japanese Yen/US Dollar, and Bitcoin/US Dollar.
Commodities = ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures, COMEX Gold Futures, COMEX Silver Futures, COMEX Copper Futures, and S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) Futures.
Derivatives = CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), ICE US Bond Market Volatility Index (MOVE), CBOE 3M Implied Correlation Index, and CBOE VIX Volatility Index (VVIX)/VIX.
All assets are directionally aligned with their historical correlation to the S&P 500. Each asset contributes equally based on its individual bullish or bearish signal. The overall market regime is calculated as the difference between the number of Risk-On and Risk-Off signals divided by the total number of assets, displayed as the percentage of markets confirming each regime. Green indicates Risk-On and occurs when the number of Risk-On signals exceeds Risk-Off signals, while red indicates Risk-Off and occurs when the number of Risk-Off signals exceeds Risk-On signals.
Bullish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) > (ATR × ATR Margin)
Bearish Signal = (Fast MA – Slow MA) < –(ATR × ATR Margin)
Market Regime = (Risk-On signals – Risk-Off signals) ÷ Total assets
This indicator is designed with flexibility in mind, allowing users to include or exclude individual assets that contribute to the market regime and adjust the input parameters used for trend signal detection. These parameters apply to each independent asset, and the overall regime signal is smoothed by the signal length to reduce noise and enhance reliability. Investors can position according to the prevailing market regime by selecting factors that have historically outperformed under each regime environment to minimise downside risk and maximise upside potential:
Risk-On Equity Factors = High Beta > Cyclicals > Low Volatility > Defensives.
Risk-Off Equity Factors = Defensives > Low Volatility > Cyclicals > High Beta.
Risk-On Fixed Income Factors = High Yield > Investment Grade > Treasuries.
Risk-Off Fixed Income Factors = Treasuries > Investment Grade > High Yield.
Risk-On Commodity Factors = Industrial Metals > Energy > Agriculture > Gold.
Risk-Off Commodity Factors = Gold > Agriculture > Energy > Industrial Metals.
Risk-On Currency Factors = Cryptocurrencies > Foreign Currencies > US Dollar.
Risk-Off Currency Factors = US Dollar > Foreign Currencies > Cryptocurrencies.
In summary, the Market Regime Index is a comprehensive macro risk-management tool that identifies the current market regime and helps investors align portfolio risk with the market’s underlying risk appetite. Its intuitive, color-coded design makes it an indispensable resource for investors seeking to navigate shifting market conditions and enhance risk-adjusted performance by selecting factors that have historically outperformed. While it has proven historically valuable, asset-specific characteristics and correlations evolve over time as market dynamics change.
MARA / mNAV=1 (x)What it does
This script overlays two signals on the MARA chart:
mNAV=1 fair-value line — the MARA price implied by Bitcoin NAV:
mNAV1 = (BTC price × BTC holdings) / MARA shares
Premium/Discount ratio — how far MARA trades vs. its NAV fair value:
Ratio = Close / mNAV1 (1.00 = fair; >1 = premium; <1 = discount)
Inputs
Shares outstanding (default: 370,460,000)
BTC holdings (official or estimated; you can roll forward +25 BTC/day if you want)
BTC symbol used for pricing (e.g., BTCUSD, BTCUSDT, BTCUSDTPERP)
How to use
When Price < mNAV=1 and Ratio < 1.00 → MARA trades at a discount to BTC NAV (potential mean-reversion if BTC is stable).
When Price > mNAV=1 and Ratio > 1.00 → premium (premium often compresses during BTC chop/weakness).
Rule of thumb (with ~53k BTC and 370.46M shares): +$1,000 BTC ≈ +$0.14 on the mNAV=1 line.
Visuals
Blue line = mNAV=1 (fair value) plotted directly on the MARA chart.
Purple line = Ratio (×) on a separate right-hand scale centered around 1.00.
Optional shading: green when Ratio > 1.05 (+5% premium), red when Ratio < 0.95 (−5% discount).
Alerts (suggested)
Premium > +5%: Ratio > 1.05
Discount < −5%: Ratio < 0.95
Notes
This is a proxy for NAV parity; it assumes your BTC holdings input is correct (official last report or your estimate).
Choice of BTC symbol matters; use the feed that best matches your workflow (spot, perp, or index).
The ratio is most informative when BTC is range-bound; during fast BTC moves MARA can overshoot temporarily.
Historical VolatilityHistorical Volatility Indicator with Custom Trading Sessions
Overview
This indicator calculates **annualized Historical Volatility (HV)** using logarithmic returns and standard deviation. Unlike standard HV indicators, this version allows you to **customize trading sessions and holidays** for different markets, ensuring accurate volatility calculations for options pricing and risk management.
Key Features
✅ Custom Trading Sessions - Define multiple trading sessions per day with precise start/end times
✅ Multiple Markets Support - Pre-configured for US, Russian, European, and crypto markets
✅ Clearing Periods Handling - Account for intraday clearing breaks
✅ Flexible Calendar - Set trading days per year for different countries
✅ All Timeframes - Works correctly on intraday, daily, weekly, and monthly charts
✅ Info Table - Optional display showing calculation parameters
How It Works
The indicator uses the classical volatility formula:
σ_annual = σ_period × √(periods per year)
Where:
- σ_period = Standard deviation of logarithmic returns over the specified period
- Periods per year = Calculated based on actual trading time (not calendar time)
Calculation Method
1. Computes log returns: ln(close / close )
2. Calculates standard deviation over the lookback period
3. Annualizes using the square root rule with accurate period count
4. Displays as percentage
Settings
Calculation
- Period (default: 10) - Lookback period for volatility calculation
Trading Schedule
- Trading Days Per Year (default: 252) - Number of actual trading days
- USA: 252
- Russia: 247-250
- Europe: 250-253
- Crypto (24/7): 365
- Trading Sessions - Define trading hours in format: `hh:mm:ss-hh:mm:ss, hh:mm:ss-hh:mm:ss`
Display
- Show Info Table - Shows calculation parameters in real-time
Market Presets
United States (NYSE/NASDAQ)
Trading Sessions: 09:30:00-16:00:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 390
Russia (MOEX)
Trading Sessions: 10:00:00-14:00:00, 14:05:00-18:40:00
Trading Days Per Year: 248
Trading Minutes Per Day: 515
Europe (LSE)
Trading Sessions: 08:00:00-16:30:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 510
Germany (XETRA)
Trading Sessions: 09:00:00-17:30:00
Trading Days Per Year: 252
Trading Minutes Per Day: 510
Cryptocurrency (24/7)
Trading Sessions: 00:00:00-23:59:59
Trading Days Per Year: 365
Trading Minutes Per Day: 1440
Use Cases
Options Trading
- Compare HV vs IV - Historical volatility compared to implied volatility helps identify mispriced options
- Volatility mean reversion - Identify when volatility is unusually high or low
- Straddle/strangle selection - Choose optimal strikes based on historical movement
Risk Management
- Position sizing - Adjust position size based on current volatility
- Stop-loss placement - Set stops based on expected price movement
- Portfolio volatility - Monitor individual asset volatility contribution
Market Analysis
- Regime identification - Detect transitions between low and high volatility environments
- Cross-market comparison - Compare volatility across different assets and markets
Why Accurate Trading Hours Matter
Standard HV indicators assume 24-hour trading or use simplified day counts, leading to significant errors in annualized volatility:
- 5-minute chart error : Can be off by 50%+ if using wrong period count
- Options pricing impact : Even 2-3% HV error affects option values substantially
- Intraday vs overnight : Correctly excludes non-trading periods
This indicator ensures your HV calculations match the methodology used in professional options pricing models.
Technical Notes
- Uses actual trading minutes, not calendar days
- Handles multiple clearing periods within a single trading day
- Properly scales volatility across all timeframes
- Logarithmic returns for more accurate volatility measurement
- Compatible with Pine Script v6
Author Notes: This indicator was designed specifically for options traders who need precise volatility measurements across different global markets. The customizable trading sessions ensure your HV calculations align with actual market hours and industry-standard options pricing models.
StdDev Supertrend {CHIPA}StdDev Supertrend ~ C H I P A is a supertrend style trend engine that replaces ATR with standard deviation as the volatility core. It can operate on raw prices or log return volatility, with optional smoothing to control noise.
Key features include:
Supertrend trailing rails built from a stddev scaled envelope that flips the regime only when price closes through the opposite rail.
Returns-based mode that scales volatility by log returns for more consistent behavior across price regimes.
Optional smoothing on the volatility input to tune responsiveness versus stability.
Directional gap fill between price and the active trend line on the main chart; opacity adapts to the distance (vs ATR) so wide gaps read stronger and small gaps stay subtle.
Secondary pane view of the rails with the same adaptive fade, plus an optional candle overlay for context.
Clean alerts that fire once when state changes
Use cases: medium-term trend following, stop/flip systems, and visual regime confirmation when you prefer stddev-based distance over ATR.
Note: no walk-forward or robustness testing is implied; parameter choices and risk controls are on you.
EMP Probabilistic [CHE]Part 1 — For Traders (Practical Overview, no formulas)
What this tool does
EMP Probabilistic \ turns raw price action into a clean, probability-aware map. It builds two adaptive bands around the session open of a higher timeframe you choose (called the S-timeframe) and highlights a robust median threshold. At a glance you know:
Where price has recently tended to stay,
Whether current momentum sits above or below the median, and
A live Long vs. Short probability based on recent outcomes.
Why it improves decisions
Objective context in any regime: The nonparametric band comes straight from recent market behavior, without assuming a particular distribution.
Volatility-aware risk lens: The parametric band adapts to current volatility, helping you judge stretch and room for continuation or snap-back.
No lookahead: All stats update only after an S-bar is finished. That means the panel reflects information you truly had at that time.
How to read the chart
Orange band = empirical, distribution-free range derived from recent session returns (nonparametric).
Teal band = volatility-scaled range around the session open (parametric).
Median dots: green when close is above the median threshold, red when below.
Info panel: shows the active S-timeframe, window sizes, live coverage for both bands, the internal width parameter and volatility estimate, plus a one-line summary.
Probability label: “Long XX% • Short YY%” — a simple read on the recent balance of up vs. down S-bars.
How to use it (quick start)
1. Choose S-timeframe with Auto, Multiplier, or Manual. “Auto” scales your chart TF up to a sensible higher step.
2. Set alpha to control how tight the inner band should be. A typical value gives you a comfortable center zone without cutting off healthy trends.
3. Trade the context:
Trend-following: Prefer longs when price holds above the median; prefer shorts when it stays below.
Mean-reversion: Fade moves near the outer edges during ranges; look for reversion back toward the median.
Breakout filter: Require closes that push and hold beyond the volatility band for momentum plays; avoid noise when price chops inside the middle of the orange band.
Risk management made practical
Size positions relative to the teal band width to keep risk consistent across instruments and regimes.
For stops, many traders set them just beyond the opposite orange bound or use a fraction of the teal band.
Watch the panel’s coverage readouts and Brier score; when they deteriorate, the market may be shifting — reduce size or demand stronger confirmation.
Suggested presets
Scalping (Crypto/FX): Auto S-TF, alpha around a fifth, calibration window near two hundred, RS volatility, metrics window near two hundred.
Intraday Futures: Multiplier 3–5× your chart TF; similar alpha and window sizes; RS volatility is a solid default.
Swing/Equities: S-TF at least daily; test both RS and GK volatility modes; keep windows on the larger side for stability.
What makes it different
Two complementary lenses: a distribution-free read of recent behavior and a volatility-scaled read for risk and stretch.
Self-calibrating width: the parametric band quietly nudges its internal multiplier so actual coverage tracks your target.
Clean UX: grouped inputs, tooltips, an info panel that tells you what’s going on, and a simple median bias you can act on.
Repainting & timing
The logic updates only when the S-bar closes. On lower-timeframe charts you’ll see intrabar flips of the dot color — that’s just live price moving around. For strict signals, confirm on S-bar close.
Friendly note (not financial advice)
Use this as a context engine. It won’t predict the future, but it will keep you on the right side of probability and volatility more often, which is exactly where consistency starts.
Part 2 — Under the Hood (Conceptual, no formulas)
Data and timeframe design
The script works on a higher S-timeframe you select. It fetches the open, high, low, close, and time of that S-bar. Internally, it only updates its rolling windows after an S-bar has finished. It then pushes the previous S-bar’s statistics into its arrays. That design removes lookahead and keeps the metrics out-of-sample relative to the current S-bar.
Nonparametric band (distribution-free)
The orange band comes from the empirical distribution of recent session-level close-minus-open moves. The script keeps a rolling window, sorts a safe copy, and reads three key points: a lower bound, a median, and an upper bound. Because it’s based purely on observed outcomes, it adapts naturally to skew, fat tails, and regime shifts without assuming any particular shape. The orange range shows “where price has tended to live” lately on the chosen S-timeframe.
Parametric band (volatility-scaled)
The teal band models log-space variability around the session open using one of two well-known OHLC volatility estimators: Rogers–Satchell or Garman–Klass. Each estimator contributes a per-bar variance figure; the script averages these across the rolling window to form a current volatility scale. It then builds a symmetric band around the session open in price space. This gives you a volatility-aware notion of stretch that complements the distribution-free orange band.
Self-calibration of band width
The teal band has an internal width multiplier. After each completed S-bar the script checks whether the realized move stayed inside that band. If the band was too tight, the multiplier is nudged upward; if it was too loose, it’s eased downward. A simple learning rate governs how quickly it adapts. Over time this keeps the realized inside-coverage close to the target implied by your alpha setting, without you having to hand-tune anything.
Long/Short probability and calibration quality
The Long vs. Short probability is a transparent statistic: it’s just the recent fraction of up sessions in the rolling window. It is not a complex model — and that’s the point. You get an honest, intuitive read on directional tendency.
To monitor how well this simple probability lines up with reality, the script tracks a Brier-style score over a separate metrics window. Lower is better: it means your recent probability read has matched outcomes more closely.
Coverage tracking for both bands
The panel reports coverage for the orange band (nonparametric) and the teal band (parametric). These are rolling averages of how often recent S-bar moves landed inside each band. Watching these two numbers tells you whether market behavior still aligns with the recent distribution and with the current volatility model.
Why it doesn’t repaint
Because the arrays update only when an S-bar closes and only push the previous bar’s stats, the panel and metrics reflect information you had at the time. Intrabar visuals can change while a bar is forming — that’s expected — but the decision framework itself is anchored to completed S-bars.
Performance and practicality
The heaviest step is sorting a copy of the window for the nonparametric band. With typical window sizes this stays responsive on TradingView. The volatility estimators and rolling averages are lightweight. Inputs are grouped with clear tooltips so you can tune without hunting.
Limitations and good practice
In thin or gappy markets the bands can jump; consider a larger window or a higher S-timeframe.
During violent regime shifts, shorten the window and increase the learning rate slightly so the teal band catches up faster — but don’t overdo it, or you’ll chase noise.
The Long/Short probability is intentionally simple; it’s a context indicator, not a standalone signal factory. Combine it with structure, volume, or your execution rules.
Takeaway
Under the hood, the script blends empirical behavior and volatility scaling, then self-calibrates so the teal band’s real-world coverage stays near your target. You get clarity, consistency, and a dashboard that tells you when its own assumptions are holding up — exactly what you need to trade with confidence.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Mongoose Global Conflict Risk Index v1Overview
The Mongoose Global Conflict Risk Index v1 is a multi-asset composite indicator designed to track the early pricing of geopolitical stress and potential conflict risk across global markets. By combining signals from safe havens, volatility indices, energy markets, and emerging market equities, the index provides a normalized 0–10 score with clear bias classifications (Neutral, Caution, Elevated, High, Shock).
This tool is not predictive of headlines but captures when markets are clustering around conflict-sensitive assets before events are widely recognized.
Methodology
The indicator calculates rolling rate-of-change z-scores for eight conflict-sensitive assets:
Gold (XAUUSD) – classic safe haven
US Dollar Index (DXY) – global reserve currency flows
VIX (Equity Volatility) – S&P 500 implied volatility
OVX (Crude Oil Volatility Index) – energy stress gauge
Crude Oil (CL1!) – WTI front contract
Natural Gas (NG1!) – energy security proxy, especially Europe
EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) – global risk capital flight
FXI (China ETF) – Asia/China proxy risk
Rules:
Safe havens and vol indices trigger when z-score > threshold.
Energy triggers when z-score > threshold.
Risk assets trigger when z-score < –threshold.
Each trigger is assigned a weight, summed, normalized, and scaled 0–10.
Bias classification:
0–2: Neutral
2–4: Caution
4–6: Elevated
6–8: High
8–10: Conflict Risk-On
How to Use
Timeframes:
Daily (1D) for strategic signals and early warnings.
4H for event shocks (missiles, sanctions, sudden escalations).
Weekly (1W) for sustained trends and macro build-ups.
What to Look For:
A single trigger (for example, Gold ON) may be noise.
A cluster of 2–3 triggers across Gold, USD, VIX, and Energy often marks early stress pricing.
Elevated readings (>4) = caution; High (>6) = rotation into havens; Shock (>8) = market conviction of conflict risk.
Practical Application:
Monitor as a heatmap of global stress.
Combine with fundamental or headline tracking.
Use alert conditions at ≥4, ≥6, ≥8 for systematic monitoring.
Notes
This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only.
It is not financial advice and should be used in conjunction with other analysis methods.
σ-Based SL/TP (Long & Short). Statistical Volatility (Quant Upgrade of ATR)
Instead of ATR’s simple moving average, use standard deviation of returns (σ), realized volatility, or implied volatility (options data).
SL = kσ, TP = 2kσ (customizable).
Why better than ATR: more precise reflection of actual distribution tails, not just candle ranges.
