BTC bottom top MACRO indicator based on: Cost per transaction(w)Predicting tops and bottoms in any market is a challenging task, and the Bitcoin market is no exception. Many traders and analysts use a combination of various indicators and models to help them make educated guesses about where the market might be heading. One such metric that can provide valuable insights is the Bitcoin cost per transaction indicator.
Here's how it could potentially be superior to just using price action for predicting macro tops and bottoms:
Transaction Cost as an Indicator of Network Activity: The cost per transaction on the Bitcoin network can give an indication of how much activity is taking place. When transaction costs are high, it may signal increased network usage, which often coincides with periods of market enthusiasm or FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that can precede market tops. Conversely, lower transaction costs might indicate reduced network activity, potentially signaling a lack of investor interest that might precede market bottoms.
Reflects Real-World Use and Demand: Unlike price action, which can be influenced by speculative trading and may not always reflect the underlying fundamentals, the cost per transaction is directly tied to the use of the Bitcoin network. It offers a more fundamental approach to understanding market dynamics.
Complements Price Action Analysis: While price action can give signals about potential tops and bottoms based on historical price patterns and technical analysis, the cost per transaction can add an additional layer of information by reflecting network activity. In this way, the two can be used together to give a more complete picture of the market.
May Precede Price Changes: Changes in transaction costs could potentially precede price changes, giving advanced warning of tops and bottoms. For instance, a sudden increase in transaction costs might indicate a surge in network activity and investor interest, potentially signaling a market top. On the other hand, a decrease in transaction costs might suggest declining network activity and investor interest, potentially signaling a market bottom.
However, it's important to note that while the cost per transaction can provide valuable insights, it's not a foolproof method for predicting market tops and bottoms. Like all indicators, it should be used in conjunction with other tools and analysis methods, and traders should also consider the broader market context. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results, and all trading and investment strategies carry the risk of loss.
Pesquisar nos scripts por "demand"
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Overview
Equilibrium is a tool designed to measure the buying & selling pressure in the market. It is depicted as a “pressure gauge” that automatically adjusts as new candles are formed, providing a real-time indication of who's on top right now, buyers or sellers?
Background
Supply & demand is considered to be the main driving force of our modern economies, where the interaction between the two parties(sellers & buyers) leads to the determination of the fair price for a given product. Stock markets are no exception, they operate very much based around the idea of supply & demand.
In simple terms, supply refers to the availability of a product, and demand is the willingness of consumers to buy that product at a given price. It is obvious that different vendors may sell the same product at slightly different prices, and similarly, different customers may choose to buy the same product from different vendors at varying prices. The idea is that the price is allowed to fluctuate from time to time, but in a free & fair market, the price will eventually settle down to a value that makes both the parties happy. Such a state is known as the “Price-Equilibrium”, and this process is also referred to as the market mechanism.
This is the basic assumption around which this tool is based, the market is always trying to move towards a state of equilibrium.
Calculations
This tool takes a simplistic approach to estimate the degree of imbalance between buyers & sellers, here’s a brief summary of how the pressure is calculated:
- We compute the total lengths of red & green candles for a given period, i.e. price range multiplied by the volume for that candle.
- Then the distribution of each type of candle is calculated.
- Assuming more red candles denote more selling pressure, and green candles denote buying pressure, the gauge is populated cell by cell.
- As the pressure on one side increases, the intensity of the cell color also increases, signifying the extent to which one side is dominating.
How to use it
- The indicator is designed as a pressure gauge that moves up(vertical alignment) or to the right(horizontal alignment) as the buying pressure increases, and moves down or to the left as the selling pressure increases. How it is to be used & applied, that completely depends on your trading methodology. But, the general idea is that we expect the market to be in a state of equilibrium, and if that is not the case the tool will highlight that, and this is also where the opportunity lies to find suitable trades.
- Just by having an idea about who’s dominating the market currently, a trader can also pick sides wisely. Remember, the market is always striving to come back a state of equilibrium, and a slight imbalance can indicate the current trend, and more importantly, who’s more likely to make the next move.
User Settings
The tool offers some minimal configurations for the end user:
- You can choose to display the actual percentage value in the gauge(Show Text).
- You can adjust colors that denote buyers & sellers.
- You can change the layout of gauge, default is vertical(right side of the screen).
- Last, and most important, you can adjust the number of candles to traverse for calculating the pressure. Default is 50, can go upto 1000.
HDT CloudsHDT Clouds combines custom clouds such as the 200EMA/MA cloud indicator to create high confluence bounce zones when combined with VWAP. The HDT indicator combines various clouds with the Volume Weighted Average Price indicator and Standard Deviations which allow users to identify areas on the chart where the stock may reverse.
On smaller time frames, like the 5/15/30minute, the 200ema/ma cloud and VWAP (when sitting in the same relative area) creates pockets of supply or demand.
In addition, the various moving average clouds, such as the 8/9ema cloud and the 34/50ema cloud, create areas of supply and demand depending on the overall trend. If the stock is trending very strongly to the upside, the 8/9ema can be used as a potential bounce area. Whereas, if the stock is trending, but not quite as strong, the stock may have demand at the 34-50ema where the stock could see a potential bounce to the upside. What sets this indicator apart from other moving average clouds is the incorporation of VWAP/Standard Deviation and the combining of a 200EMA/MA indicator which creates a strong pocket of demand even on lower time frames such as the 5 or 15 minute time frame.
Dump AlertsNYSE:BRK.B
By popular demand: An inverted version of my first indicator Pump Alerts in Pine Script with two alert conditions for trading bots and automated stock trading setups.
It's originally based on "Pump Catcher" by @joepegler
I modified some parts, hopefully improved the usability and enabled alerts, so you can use it to trigger bots like 3commas via webhooks or stock brokers partnering with TradingView.
Dump Alerts 📉 attempts to detect moments of abnormal and accelerating increase in volume concurrent with falling prices AKA "dumps". Small and big dumps.
I recommend trying different timeframes and tinkering with the lookback period as well as both threshold values.
Other than that it's pretty self-explanatory and beginner-friendly.
Free and Open Source. Let me know how you use it!
VWAP For Loop [BackQuant]VWAP For Loop
What this tool does—in one sentence
A volume-weighted trend gauge that anchors VWAP to a calendar period (day/week/month/quarter/year) and then scores the persistence of that VWAP trend with a simple for-loop “breadth” count; the result is a clean, threshold-driven oscillator plus an optional VWAP overlay and alerts.
Plain-English overview
Instead of judging raw price alone, this indicator focuses on anchored VWAP —the market’s average price paid during your chosen institutional period. It then asks a simple question across a configurable set of lookback steps: “Is the current anchored VWAP higher than it was i bars ago—or lower?” Each “yes” adds +1, each “no” adds −1. Summing those answers creates a score that reflects how consistently the volume-weighted trend has been rising or falling. Extreme positive scores imply persistent, broad strength; deeply negative scores imply persistent weakness. Crossing predefined thresholds produces objective long/short events and color-coded context.
Under the hood
• Anchoring — VWAP using hlc3 × volume resets exactly when the selected period rolls:
Day → session change, Week → new week, Month → new month, Quarter/Year → calendar quarter/year.
• For-loop scoring — For lag steps i = , compare today’s VWAP to VWAP .
– If VWAP > VWAP , add +1.
– Else, add −1.
The final score ∈ , where N = (end − start + 1). With defaults (1→45), N = 45.
• Signal logic (stateful)
– Long when score > upper (e.g., > 40 with N = 45 → VWAP higher than ~89% of checked lags).
– Short on crossunder of lower (e.g., dropping below −10).
– A compact state variable ( out ) holds the current regime: +1 (long), −1 (short), otherwise unchanged. This “stickiness” avoids constant flipping between bars without sufficient evidence.
Why VWAP + a breadth score?
• VWAP aggregates both price and volume—where participants actually traded.
• The breadth-style count rewards consistency of the anchored trend, not one-off spikes.
• Thresholds give you binary structure when you need it (alerts, automation), without complex math.
What you’ll see on the chart
• Sub-pane oscillator — The for-loop score line, colored by regime (long/short/neutral).
• Main-pane VWAP (optional) — Even though the indicator runs off-chart, the anchored VWAP can be overlaid on price (toggle visibility and whether it inherits trend colors).
• Threshold guides — Horizontal lines for the long/short bands (toggle).
• Cosmetics — Optional candle painting and background shading by regime; adjustable line width and colors.
Input map (quick reference)
• VWAP Anchor Period — Day, Week, Month, Quarter, Year.
• Calculation Start/End — The for-loop lag window . With 1→45, you evaluate 45 comparisons.
• Long/Short Thresholds — Default upper=40, lower=−10 (asymmetric by design; see below).
• UI/Style — Show thresholds, paint candles, background color, line width, VWAP visibility and coloring, custom long/short colors.
Interpreting the score
• Near +N — Current anchored VWAP is above most historical VWAP checkpoints in the window → entrenched strength.
• Near −N — Current anchored VWAP is below most checkpoints → entrenched weakness.
• Between — Mixed, choppy, or transitioning regimes; use thresholds to avoid reacting to noise.
Why the asymmetric default thresholds?
• Long = score > upper (40) — Demands unusually broad upside persistence before declaring “long regime.”
• Short = crossunder lower (−10) — Triggers only on downward momentum events (a fresh breach), not merely being below −10. This combination tends to:
– Capture sustained uptrends only when they’re very strong.
– Flag downside turns as they occur, rather than waiting for an extreme negative breadth.
Tuning guide
Choose an anchor that matches your horizon
– Intraday scalps : Day anchor on intraday charts.
– Swing/position : Month or Quarter anchor on 1h/4h/D charts to capture institutional cycles.
Pick the for-loop window
– Larger N (bigger end) = stronger evidence requirement, smoother oscillator.
– Smaller N = faster, more reactive score.
Set achievable thresholds
– Ensure upper ≤ N and lower ≥ −N ; if N=30, an upper of 40 can never trigger.
– Symmetric setups (e.g., +20/−20) are fine if you want balanced behavior.
Match visuals to intent
– Enabling VWAP coloring lets you see regime directly on price.
– Background shading is useful for discretionary reading; turn it off for cleaner automation displays.
Playbook examples
• Trend confirmation with disciplined entries — On Month anchor, N=45, upper=38–42: when the long regime engages, use pullbacks toward anchored VWAP on the main pane for entries, with stops just beyond VWAP or a recent swing.
• Downside transition detection — Keep lower around −8…−12 and watch for crossunders; combine with price losing anchored VWAP to validate risk-off.
• Intraday bias filter — Day anchor on a 5–15m chart, N=20–30, upper ~ 16–20, lower ~ −6…−10. Only take longs while score is positive and above a midline you define (e.g., 0), and shorts only after a genuine crossunder.
Behavior around resets (important)
Anchored VWAP is hard-reset each period. Immediately after a reset, the series can be young and comparisons to pre-reset values may span two periods. If you prefer within-period evaluation only, choose end small enough not to bridge typical period length on your timeframe, or accept that the breadth test intentionally spans regimes.
Alerts included
• VWAP FL Long — Fires when the long condition is true (score > upper and not in short).
• VWAP FL Short — Fires on crossunder of the lower threshold (event-driven).
Messages include {{ticker}} and {{interval}} placeholders for routing.
Strengths
• Simple, transparent math — Easy to reason about and validate.
• Volume-aware by construction — Decisions reference VWAP, not just price.
• Robust to single-bar noise — Needs many lags to agree before flipping state (by design, via thresholds and the stateful output).
Limitations & cautions
• Threshold feasibility — If N < upper or |lower| > N, signals will never trigger; always cross-check N.
• Path dependence — The state variable persists until a new event; if you want frequent re-evaluation, lower thresholds or reduce N.
• Regime changes — Calendar resets can produce early ambiguity; expect a few bars for the breadth to mature.
• VWAP sensitivity to volume spikes — Large prints can tilt VWAP abruptly; that behavior is intentional in VWAP-based logic.
Suggested starting profiles
• Intraday trend bias : Anchor=Day, N=25 (1→25), upper=18–20, lower=−8, paint candles ON.
• Swing bias : Anchor=Month, N=45 (1→45), upper=38–42, lower=−10, VWAP coloring ON, background OFF.
• Balanced reactivity : Anchor=Week, N=30 (1→30), upper=20–22, lower=−10…−12, symmetric if desired.
Implementation notes
• The indicator runs in a separate pane (oscillator), but VWAP itself is drawn on price using forced overlay so you can see interactions (touches, reclaim/loss).
• HLC3 is used for VWAP price; that’s a common choice to dampen wick noise while still reflecting intrabar range.
• For-loop cap is kept modest (≤50) for performance and clarity.
How to use this responsibly
Treat the oscillator as a bias and persistence meter . Combine it with your entry framework (structure breaks, liquidity zones, higher-timeframe context) and risk controls. The design emphasizes clarity over complexity—its edge is in how strictly it demands agreement before declaring a regime, not in predicting specific turns.
Summary
VWAP For Loop distills the question “How broadly is the anchored, volume-weighted trend advancing or retreating?” into a single, thresholded score you can read at a glance, alert on, and color through your chart. With careful anchoring and thresholds sized to your window length, it becomes a pragmatic bias filter for both systematic and discretionary workflows.
Momentum-Based Fair Value Gaps [BackQuant]Momentum-Based Fair Value Gaps
A precision tool that detects Fair Value Gaps and color-codes each zone by momentum, so you can quickly tell which imbalances matter, which are likely to fill, and which may power continuation.
What is a Fair Value Gap
A Fair Value Gap is a 3-candle price imbalance that forms when the middle candle expands fast enough that it leaves a void between candle 1 and candle 3.
Bullish FVG : low > high . This marks a bullish imbalance left beneath price.
Bearish FVG : high < low . This marks a bearish imbalance left above price.
These zones often act as magnets for mean reversion or as fuel for trend continuation when price respects the gap boundary and runs.
Why add momentum
Not all gaps are equal. This script measures momentum with RSI on your chosen source and paints each FVG with a momentum heatmap. Strong-momentum gaps are more likely to hold or propel continuation. Weak-momentum gaps are more likely to fill.
Core Features
Auto FVG Detection with size filters in percent of price.
Momentum Heatmap per gap using RSI with smoothing. Multiple palettes: Gradient, Discrete, Simple, and scientific schemes like Viridis, Plasma, Inferno, Magma, Cividis, Turbo, Jet, plus Red-Green and Blue-White-Red.
Bull and Bear Modes with independent toggles.
Extend Until Filled : keep drawing live to the right until price fully fills the gap.
Auto Remove Filled for a clean chart.
Optional Labels showing the smoothed RSI value stored at the gap’s birth.
RSI-based Filters : only accept bullish gaps when RSI is oversold and bearish gaps when RSI is overbought.
Performance Controls : cap how many FVGs to keep on chart.
Alerts : new bullish or bearish FVG, filled FVG, and extreme RSI FVGs.
How it works
Source for Momentum : choose Returns, Close, or Volume.
Returns computes percent change over a short lookback to focus on impulse quality.
RSI and Smoothing : RSI length and a small SMA smooth the signal to stabilize the color coding.
Gap Scan : each bar checks for a 3-candle bullish or bearish imbalance that also clears your minimum size filter in percent of price.
Heatmap Color : the gap is painted at creation with a color from your palette based on the smoothed RSI value, preserving the momentum signature that formed it.
Lifecycle : if Extend Unfilled is on, the zone projects forward until price fully trades through the far edge. If Auto Remove is on, a filled gap is deleted immediately.
How to use it
Scan for structure : turn on both bullish and bearish FVGs. Start with a moderate Min FVG Size percent to reduce noise. You will see stacked clusters in trends and scattered singletons in chop.
Read the colors : brighter or stronger palette values imply stronger momentum at gap formation. Weakly colored gaps are lower conviction.
Decide bias : bullish FVGs below price suggest demand footprints. Bearish FVGs above price suggest supply footprints. Use the heatmap and RSI value to rank importance.
Choose your playbook :
Mean reversion : target partial or full fills of opposing FVGs that were created on weak momentum or that sit against higher timeframe context.
Trend continuation : look for price to respect the near edge of a strong-momentum FVG, then break away in the direction of the original impulse.
Manage risk : in continuation ideas, invalidation often sits beyond the opposite edge of the active FVG. In reversion ideas, invalidation sits beyond the gap that should attract price.
Two trade playbooks
Continuation - Buy the hold of a bullish FVG
Context uptrend.
A bullish FVG prints with strong RSI color.
Price revisits the top of the gap, holds, and rotates up. Enter on hold or first higher low inside or just above the gap.
Invalidation: below the gap bottom. Targets: prior swing, measured move, or next LV area.
Reversion - Fade a weak bearish FVG toward fill
Context range or fading trend.
A bearish FVG prints with weak RSI color near a completed move.
Price fails to accelerate lower and rotates back into the gap.
Enter toward mid-gap with confirmation.
Invalidation: above gap top. Target: opposite edge for a full fill, or the gap midline for partials.
Key settings
Max FVG Display : memory cap to keep charts fast. Try 30 to 60 on intraday.
Min FVG Size % : sets a quality floor. Start near 0.20 to 0.50 on liquid markets.
RSI Length and Smooth : 14 and 3 are balanced. Increase length for higher timeframe stability.
RSI Source :
Returns : most sensitive to true momentum bursts
Close : traditional.
Volume : uses raw volume impulses to judge footprint strength.
Filter by RSI Extremes : tighten rules so only the most stretched gaps print as signals.
Heatmap Style and Palette : pick a palette with good contrast for your background. Gradient for continuous feel, Discrete for quick zoning, Simple for binary, Palette for scientific schemes.
Extend Unfilled - Auto Remove : choose live projection and cleanup behavior to match your workflow.
Reading the chart
Bullish zones sit beneath price. Respect and hold of the upper boundary suggests demand. Strong green or warm palette tones indicate impulse quality.
Bearish zones sit above price. Respect and hold of the lower boundary suggests supply. Strong red or cool palette tones indicate impulse quality.
Stacking : multiple same-direction gaps stacked in a trend create ladders. Ladders often act as stepping stones for continuation.
Overlapping : opposing gaps overlapping in a small region usually mark a battle zone. Expect chop until one side is absorbed.
Workflow tips
Map higher timeframe trend first. Use lower timeframe FVGs for entries aligned with the higher timeframe bias.
Increase Min FVG Size percent and RSI length for noisy symbols.
Use labels when learning to correlate the RSI numbers with your palette colors.
Combine with VWAP or moving averages for confluence at FVG edges.
If you see repeated fills and refills of the same zone, treat that area as fair value and avoid chasing.
Alerts included
New Bullish FVG
New Bearish FVG
Bullish FVG Filled
Bearish FVG Filled
Extreme Oversold FVG - bullish
Extreme Overbought FVG - bearish
Practical defaults
RSI Length 14, Smooth 3, Source Returns.
Min FVG Size 0.25 percent on liquid majors.
Heatmap Style Gradient, Palette Viridis or Turbo for contrast.
Extend Unfilled on, Auto Remove on for a clean live map.
Notes
This tool does not predict the future. It maps imbalances and momentum so you can frame trades with clearer context, cleaner invalidation, and better ranking of which gaps matter. Use it with risk control and in combination with your broader process.
BLITZ JUNK BOND INDICATORThe given indicator considers the fluctuations in the bond market and the spread that are existing as a premium demanded by investors for high risk corporate junk bonds.
1. The junk bond spread indicator precisely anticipates market phases, especially any panic kind of scenario.
2. Junk bond spread indicator often face choppy market zone and entirely we must rely on our portfolio churning skills if such scenario occurs and the broader markets failed to perform even if the indicator has made us to make a buy position
3. Whenever Bullish signal comes, same is to be confirmed with the price action of the broader market index, then same to be confirmed in the junk bond spreads chart if the spreads are going down steadily or is breaking down from the nearest swing low and cooling off. This, scenario indicates we must expose our portfolio to equities
4. Whenever Bearish signal comes, same to be cofirmed with the price action of the broader market index, then same to be confirmed in the junk bond spread charts if the spreads are heating up breaking nearby swing highs or steadily moving up. In such scenario, we must prepare for heavy market drawdowns or must anticipate some panic scenario in the markets and thus should avoid equities.
Market Clarity Pro Market Clarity Pro — See Key Zones, Trend & Volume Signals
Spot yesterday’s High (Supply) and Low (Demand) instantly — and know exactly where big buyers and sellers are likely waiting.
Red zones = strong selling pressure.
Green zones = strong buying pressure.
Plus, a built-in trend line keeps you trading in the right direction and away from sudden reversals.
You’ll also see:
🔴 Red arrow — not a sell signal, but a sign of heavy sellers stepping in, with volume confirmation and a candle breaking the previous one.
🔵 Blue arrow — not a buy signal, but a sign of strong buyers stepping in, with volume confirmation and a candle breaking the previous one.
These arrows highlight potential volume spikes and breakouts for confirmation only — you still confirm with the higher time frame for more market clarity.
Break above supply. Possible uptrend.
Break below demand. Possible downtrend.
📌 Before using this tool, watch the tutorial video to learn exactly how to apply it and how to spot profitable trades with confidence.
ENTRY CONFIRMATION V2An indicator from candle man. Helps determine whether supply and demand zone are truly supply or demand.
Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 - T10YIE)The Real 10Y Yield (DGS10 – T10YIE) indicator computes the inflation-adjusted U.S. 10-year Treasury yield by subtracting the 10-year breakeven inflation rate (T10YIE) from the nominal 10-year Treasury yield (DGS10), both sourced directly from FRED. By filtering out inflation expectations, this script reveals the true, real borrowing cost over a 10-year horizon—one of the most reliable gauges of overall risk sentiment and capital–market health.
How It Works
Data Inputs
• DGS10 (Nominal 10-Year Treasury Yield)
• T10YIE (10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate)
Both series are fetched on a daily timeframe via request.security from FRED.
Real Yield Calculation
pine
Copy
Edit
real10y = DGS10 – T10YIE
A positive value indicates that nominal yields exceed inflation expectations (real yields are positive), while a negative value signals deep-negative real rates.
Thresholds & Coloring
• Bullish Zone: Real yield < –0.1 %
• Bearish Zone: Real yield > +0.1 %
The background turns green when real yields drop below –0.1 %, reflecting an ultra-accommodative environment that historically aligns with risk-on rallies. It turns red when real yields exceed +0.1 %, indicating expensive real borrowing costs and a potential shift toward risk-off.
Alerts
• Deep-Negative Real Yields (Bullish): Triggers when real yield < –0.1 %
• High Real Yields (Bearish): Triggers when real yield > +0.1 %
Why It’s Powerful
Forward-Looking Sentiment Gauge
Real yields incorporate both market-implied inflation and nominal rates, making them a leading indicator for risk appetite, equity flows, and crypto demand.
Clear, Actionable Zones
The –0.1 % / +0.1 % thresholds cleanly delineate structurally bullish vs. bearish regimes, removing noise and false signals common in nominal-only yield studies.
Macro & Cross-Asset Confluence
Combine with equity indices, dollar strength (DXY), or credit spreads for a fully contextual macro view. When real yields break deeper negative alongside weakening dollar, it often precedes stretch in risk assets.
Automatic Alerts
Never miss regime shifts—alerts notify you the moment real yields breach key zones, so you can align your strategy with prevailing macro momentum.
How to Use
Add to a separate pane for unobstructed visibility.
Monitor breaks beneath –0.1 % for early “risk-on” signals in stocks, commodities, and crypto.
Watch for climbs above +0.1 % to hedge or rotate into defensive assets.
Combine with your existing trend-following or mean-reversion strategies to improve timing around major market turning points.
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Feel free to adjust the threshold lines to your preferred sensitivity (e.g., tighten to ±0.05 %), or overlay with moving averages to smooth out whipsaws. This script is ideal for macro traders, portfolio managers, and quantitative quants who demand a distilled, inflation-adjusted view of real rates.
Systemic Credit Market Pressure IndexSystemic Credit Market Pressure Index (SCMPI): A Composite Indicator for Credit Cycle Analysis
The Systemic Credit Market Pressure Index (SCMPI) represents a novel composite indicator designed to quantify systemic stress within credit markets through the integration of multiple macroeconomic variables. This indicator employs advanced statistical normalization techniques, adaptive threshold mechanisms, and intelligent visualization systems to provide real-time assessment of credit market conditions across expansion, neutral, and stress regimes. The methodology combines credit spread analysis, labor market indicators, consumer credit conditions, and household debt metrics into a unified framework for systemic risk assessment, featuring dynamic Bollinger Band-style thresholds and theme-adaptive visualization capabilities.
## 1. Introduction
Credit cycles represent fundamental drivers of economic fluctuations, with their dynamics significantly influencing financial stability and macroeconomic outcomes (Bernanke, Gertler & Gilchrist, 1999). The identification and measurement of credit market stress has become increasingly critical following the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the need for comprehensive early warning systems (Adrian & Brunnermeier, 2016). Traditional single-variable approaches often fail to capture the multidimensional nature of credit market dynamics, necessitating the development of composite indicators that integrate multiple information sources.
The SCMPI addresses this gap by constructing a weighted composite index that synthesizes four key dimensions of credit market conditions: corporate credit spreads, labor market stress, consumer credit accessibility, and household leverage ratios. This approach aligns with the theoretical framework established by Minsky (1986) regarding financial instability hypothesis and builds upon empirical work by Gilchrist & Zakrajšek (2012) on credit market sentiment.
## 2. Theoretical Framework
### 2.1 Credit Cycle Theory
The theoretical foundation of the SCMPI rests on the credit cycle literature, which posits that credit availability fluctuates in predictable patterns that amplify business cycle dynamics (Kiyotaki & Moore, 1997). During expansion phases, credit becomes increasingly available as risk perceptions decline and collateral values rise. Conversely, stress phases are characterized by credit contraction, elevated risk premiums, and deteriorating borrower conditions.
The indicator incorporates Kindleberger's (1978) framework of financial crises, which identifies key stages in credit cycles: displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic. By monitoring multiple variables simultaneously, the SCMPI aims to capture transitions between these phases before they become apparent in individual metrics.
### 2.2 Systemic Risk Measurement
Systemic risk, defined as the risk of collapse of an entire financial system or entire market (Kaufman & Scott, 2003), requires measurement approaches that capture interconnectedness and spillover effects. The SCMPI follows the methodology established by Bisias et al. (2012) in constructing composite measures that aggregate individual risk indicators into system-wide assessments.
The index employs the concept of "financial stress" as defined by Illing & Liu (2006), encompassing increased uncertainty about fundamental asset values, increased uncertainty about other investors' behavior, increased flight to quality, and increased flight to liquidity.
## 3. Methodology
### 3.1 Component Variables
The SCMPI integrates four primary components, each representing distinct aspects of credit market conditions:
#### 3.1.1 Credit Spreads (BAA-10Y Treasury)
Corporate credit spreads serve as the primary indicator of credit market stress, reflecting risk premiums demanded by investors for corporate debt relative to risk-free government securities (Gilchrist & Zakrajšek, 2012). The BAA-10Y spread specifically captures investment-grade corporate credit conditions, providing insight into broad credit market sentiment.
#### 3.1.2 Unemployment Rate
Labor market conditions directly influence credit quality through their impact on borrower repayment capacity (Bernanke & Gertler, 1995). Rising unemployment typically precedes credit deterioration, making it a valuable leading indicator for credit stress.
#### 3.1.3 Consumer Credit Rates
Consumer credit accessibility reflects the transmission of monetary policy and credit market conditions to household borrowing (Mishkin, 1995). Elevated consumer credit rates indicate tightening credit conditions and reduced credit availability for households.
#### 3.1.4 Household Debt Service Ratio
Household leverage ratios capture the debt burden relative to income, providing insight into household financial stress and potential credit losses (Mian & Sufi, 2014). High debt service ratios indicate vulnerable household sectors that may contribute to credit market instability.
### 3.2 Statistical Methodology
#### 3.2.1 Z-Score Normalization
Each component variable undergoes robust z-score normalization to ensure comparability across different scales and units:
Z_i,t = (X_i,t - μ_i) / σ_i
Where X_i,t represents the value of variable i at time t, μ_i is the historical mean, and σ_i is the historical standard deviation. The normalization period employs a rolling 252-day window to capture annual cyclical patterns while maintaining sensitivity to regime changes.
#### 3.2.2 Adaptive Smoothing
To reduce noise while preserving signal quality, the indicator employs exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing with adaptive parameters:
EMA_t = α × Z_t + (1-α) × EMA_{t-1}
Where α = 2/(n+1) and n represents the smoothing period (default: 63 days).
#### 3.2.3 Weighted Aggregation
The composite index combines normalized components using theoretically motivated weights:
SCMPI_t = w_1×Z_spread,t + w_2×Z_unemployment,t + w_3×Z_consumer,t + w_4×Z_debt,t
Default weights reflect the relative importance of each component based on empirical literature: credit spreads (35%), unemployment (25%), consumer credit (25%), and household debt (15%).
### 3.3 Dynamic Threshold Mechanism
Unlike static threshold approaches, the SCMPI employs adaptive Bollinger Band-style thresholds that automatically adjust to changing market volatility and conditions (Bollinger, 2001):
Expansion Threshold = μ_SCMPI - k × σ_SCMPI
Stress Threshold = μ_SCMPI + k × σ_SCMPI
Neutral Line = μ_SCMPI
Where μ_SCMPI and σ_SCMPI represent the rolling mean and standard deviation of the composite index calculated over a configurable period (default: 126 days), and k is the threshold multiplier (default: 1.0). This approach ensures that thresholds remain relevant across different market regimes and volatility environments, providing more robust regime classification than fixed thresholds.
### 3.4 Visualization and User Interface
The SCMPI incorporates advanced visualization capabilities designed for professional trading environments:
#### 3.4.1 Adaptive Theme System
The indicator features an intelligent dual-theme system that automatically optimizes colors and transparency levels for both dark and bright chart backgrounds. This ensures optimal readability across different trading platforms and user preferences.
#### 3.4.2 Customizable Visual Elements
Users can customize all visual aspects including:
- Color Schemes: Automatic theme adaptation with optional custom color overrides
- Line Styles: Configurable widths for main index, trend lines, and threshold boundaries
- Transparency Optimization: Automatic adjustment based on selected theme for optimal contrast
- Dynamic Zones: Color-coded regime areas with adaptive transparency
#### 3.4.3 Professional Data Table
A comprehensive 13-row data table provides real-time component analysis including:
- Composite index value and regime classification
- Individual component z-scores with color-coded stress indicators
- Trend direction and signal strength assessment
- Dynamic threshold status and volatility metrics
- Component weight distribution for transparency
## 4. Regime Classification
The SCMPI classifies credit market conditions into three distinct regimes:
### 4.1 Expansion Regime (SCMPI < Expansion Threshold)
Characterized by favorable credit conditions, low risk premiums, and accommodative lending standards. This regime typically corresponds to economic expansion phases with low default rates and increasing credit availability.
### 4.2 Neutral Regime (Expansion Threshold ≤ SCMPI ≤ Stress Threshold)
Represents balanced credit market conditions with moderate risk premiums and stable lending standards. This regime indicates neither significant stress nor excessive exuberance in credit markets.
### 4.3 Stress Regime (SCMPI > Stress Threshold)
Indicates elevated credit market stress with high risk premiums, tightening lending standards, and deteriorating borrower conditions. This regime often precedes or coincides with economic contractions and financial market volatility.
## 5. Technical Implementation and Features
### 5.1 Alert System
The SCMPI includes a comprehensive alert framework with seven distinct conditions:
- Regime Transitions: Expansion, Neutral, and Stress phase entries
- Extreme Conditions: Values exceeding ±2.0 standard deviations
- Trend Reversals: Directional changes in the underlying trend component
### 5.2 Performance Optimization
The indicator employs several optimization techniques:
- Efficient Calculations: Pre-computed statistical measures to minimize computational overhead
- Memory Management: Optimized variable declarations for real-time performance
- Error Handling: Robust data validation and fallback mechanisms for missing data
## 6. Empirical Validation
### 6.1 Historical Performance
Backtesting analysis demonstrates the SCMPI's ability to identify major credit stress episodes, including:
- The 2008 Financial Crisis
- The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic market disruption
- Various regional banking crises
- European sovereign debt crisis (2010-2012)
### 6.2 Leading Indicator Properties
The composite nature and dynamic threshold system of the SCMPI provides enhanced leading indicator properties, typically signaling regime changes 1-3 months before they become apparent in individual components or market indices. The adaptive threshold mechanism reduces false signals during high-volatility periods while maintaining sensitivity during regime transitions.
## 7. Applications and Limitations
### 7.1 Applications
- Risk Management: Portfolio managers can use SCMPI signals to adjust credit exposure and risk positioning
- Academic Research: Researchers can employ the index for credit cycle analysis and systemic risk studies
- Trading Systems: The comprehensive alert system enables automated trading strategy implementation
- Financial Education: The transparent methodology and visual design facilitate understanding of credit market dynamics
### 7.2 Limitations
- Data Dependency: The indicator relies on timely and accurate macroeconomic data from FRED sources
- Regime Persistence: Dynamic thresholds may exhibit brief lag during extremely rapid regime transitions
- Model Risk: Component weights and parameters require periodic recalibration based on evolving market structures
- Computational Requirements: Real-time calculations may require adequate processing power for optimal performance
## References
Adrian, T. & Brunnermeier, M.K. (2016). CoVaR. *American Economic Review*, 106(7), 1705-1741.
Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the black box: the credit channel of monetary policy transmission. *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 9(4), 27-48.
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. *Handbook of Macroeconomics*, 1, 1341-1393.
Bisias, D., Flood, M., Lo, A.W. & Valavanis, S. (2012). A survey of systemic risk analytics. *Annual Review of Financial Economics*, 4(1), 255-296.
Bollinger, J. (2001). *Bollinger on Bollinger Bands*. McGraw-Hill Education.
Gilchrist, S. & Zakrajšek, E. (2012). Credit spreads and business cycle fluctuations. *American Economic Review*, 102(4), 1692-1720.
Illing, M. & Liu, Y. (2006). Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada. *Journal of Financial Stability*, 2(3), 243-265.
Kaufman, G.G. & Scott, K.E. (2003). What is systemic risk, and do bank regulators retard or contribute to it? *The Independent Review*, 7(3), 371-391.
Kindleberger, C.P. (1978). *Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises*. Basic Books.
Kiyotaki, N. & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. *Journal of Political Economy*, 105(2), 211-248.
Mian, A. & Sufi, A. (2014). What explains the 2007–2009 drop in employment? *Econometrica*, 82(6), 2197-2223.
Minsky, H.P. (1986). *Stabilizing an Unstable Economy*. Yale University Press.
Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the monetary transmission mechanism. *Journal of Economic Perspectives*, 9(4), 3-10.
BTC Markup/Markdown Zones by Koenigsegg📈 BTC Markup/Markdown Zones
A handcrafted indicator designed to mark Bitcoin's most critical High Time Frame (HTF) structure shifts. This tool overlays true institutional-level Markup and Markdown Zones, selected manually after deep market review. Whether you're testing strategies or actively trading, this tool gives you the bigger picture at all times.
🔍 Key Features:
✅ HTF Markup & Markdown Zones
Every zone is manually selected — no indicators, no repainting. Just raw market history and real structure.
✅ Two Display Modes
• Background Zones — soft overlays with low opacity for visual context — with the option to increase opacity manually if desired.
• Start Candle Highlight — sharply highlighted candle marking the final pivot before a macro reversal.
✅ Custom Color Controls (Style Tab)
All visual styling lives in the Style tab, with clearly labeled fields:
• Markup Zone
• Markdown Zone
• Start Candle Highlight Markup
• Start Candle Highlight Markdown
✅ Minimal Input Section
Just one toggle: display mode. Everything else is kept clean and intuitive.
🧠 Purpose:
This script is made for any timeframe:
• Zoom into lower timeframes to know whether you're trading inside a Markup or Markdown
• Use it during strategy testing for true structural awareness
📅 Handpicked Macro Turning Points:
Each zone originates from a manually confirmed candle — the last meaningful candle before a shift in control between bulls and bears:
• FRI 19 AUG 2011 12PM – MARK DOWN
• THU 20 OCT 2011 12AM – MARK UP
• WED 10 APR 2013 12PM – MARK DOWN
• FRI 12 APR 2013 12PM – MARK UP
• SAT 30 NOV 2013 12AM – MARK DOWN
• WED 14 JAN 2015 12PM – MARK UP
• SUN 17 DEC 2017 12PM – MARK DOWN
• SAT 15 DEC 2018 12PM – MARK UP
• WED 14 APR 2021 4AM – MARK DOWN
• TUE 22 JUN 2021 12PM – MARK UP
• WED 10 NOV 2021 12PM – MARK DOWN
• MON 21 NOV 2022 8PM – MARK UP
• THU 14 MAR 2024 4AM – MARK DOWN
• MON 5 AUG 2024 12PM – MARK UP
• MON 20 JAN 2025 4AM – MARK DOWN
💡 Zones are manually updated by me after each new confirmed Markup or Markdown.
🧬 Fractal Structure for MTF Systems
Price is fractal — meaning the same principles of structure repeat across all timeframes. In Version 2, this tool evolves by introducing manually selected sub-zones inside each High Time Frame (HTF) Markup or Markdown. These sub-zones reflect Medium Timeframe (MTF) structure shifts, offering precision for traders who operate on both intraday and swing levels.
This makes the indicator ideal for low timeframe (LTF) Markup/Markdown awareness — whether you're managing 15m entries or building multi-timeframe confluence systems.
No auto-zones. No guesswork. Just clean, intentional structure division within the broader trend, handpicked for maximum clarity and edge.
💡 Pro Tip:
When price is inside a Markup Zone, shorting becomes riskier — you're trading against a macro bullish structure.
When inside a Markdown Zone, longing becomes riskier — you're fighting against confirmed bearish momentum.
Use this tool to stay aligned with the broader move, especially when zoomed into smaller timeframes or managing entries/exits during intraday setups.
📈 Markup Phase – Bullish Sentiment
Definition: A period where price makes higher highs and higher lows — the uptrend is in full force.
Why sentiment is bullish:
- Institutions and smart money are already positioned long.
- Public/institutional demand drives prices up.
- Momentum is supported by positive news, breakouts, and FOMO.
- Higher highs confirm buyers are in control.
📉 Markdown Phase – Bearish Sentiment
Definition: A period where price makes lower lows and lower highs — clear downtrend.
Why sentiment is bearish:
- Distribution has already occurred, and supply outweighs demand.
- Smart money is short or sidelined, waiting for deeper prices.
- Panic selling or trend-following traders add downside momentum.
- Lower lows confirm sellers are in control.
❌ Trading Against the Trend — Consequences:
-Reduced Probability of Success
-You’re fighting the dominant flow. Most participants are pushing in the opposite direction.
-Drawdowns & Stop-Outs
-Countertrend trades often get wicked or flushed before any meaningful move, especially without structure-based entries.
-Low Risk-Reward Ratio
-Trends offer sustained moves. Countertrend trades may have small take-profit zones or chop.
-Mental Drain & Doubt
-Fighting momentum causes anxiety, second-guessing, and emotional reactions.
-Missed Opportunities
-Focusing on fighting the trend makes you blind to the high-probability setups with the trend.
-Increased Transaction Costs
-More stop-outs and re-entries mean more fees, more friction.
-FOMO from Watching the Trend Run
-Entering countertrend means you might watch the trend explode without you.
-Confirmation Bias & Stubbornness
-Countertrend traders often look for reasons to justify staying in the wrong direction — leading to bigger losses.
🧠 Summary
In markup = bulls dominate → you swim with the current.
In markdown = bears dominate → going long is like pushing a rock uphill.
Trading with the trend is not just safer, it's smarter. The edge lives in momentum — not ego.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and analytical use only. It is not financial advice and should not be relied on for decision-making without personal analysis.
This is not a predictive tool. No indicator can forecast upcoming price movements.
What you see here is based purely on past market behavior — specifically, historical tops and bottoms that marked the start of confirmed reversals.
This script does not know where the next reversal begins, nor can it determine where a new Markup or Markdown starts or ends. It is designed to provide context, not prediction.
Always trade with responsibility and perform your own due diligence.
Wyckoff Accumulation Distribution Wyckoff Accumulation & Distribution Indicator (RSI-Based)
This Pine Script is a technical analysis indicator built around the Wyckoff Method, designed to detect accumulation and distribution phases using RSI (Relative Strength Index) and pivot points. It automatically marks key structural turning points on the chart and highlights relevant zones with colored boxes.
What Does It Do?
Draws accumulation and distribution boxes based on RSI behavior.
Automatically detects Wyckoff structural signals:
SC (Selling Climax)
AR (Automatic Rally)
ST (Secondary Test)
BC (Buying Climax)
DAR (Automatic Reaction)
DST (Secondary Test - Distribution)
Identifies trend transitions by detecting sideways RSI movement.
Attempts to detect spring and UTAD-like deviations based on RSI reversals.
Uses RSI extremes in conjunction with pivot points to generate Wyckoff signals.
How Does It Work?
RSI Zone: It identifies sideways markets when RSI stays within ±20 of the 50 level (this range is configurable).
Pivot Points: It detects pivot highs/lows that sync with RSI values (pivotLen is adjustable).
Trend Box Drawing:
When RSI exits the sideways zone, the script draws a gray box between the highest high and lowest low within that range.
If RSI breaks upward, the box becomes green (Accumulation); if downward, it becomes red (Distribution).
Wyckoff Structural Points:
SC/BC: Detected when a pivot occurs with RSI below/above a threshold.
AR/DAR: The next opposite pivot after SC or BC.
ST/DST: The next same-direction pivot after AR or DAR.
How to Use It
Works best on 4H or daily charts for more reliable signals. Shorter timeframes may generate noise.
Primarily used for interpreting RSI structures through the lens of Wyckoff methodology.
Box colors help quickly identify market phase:
Green box: Likely Accumulation
Red box: Likely Distribution
Triangular markers show key signals:
SC, AR, ST: Accumulation points
BC, DAR, DST: Distribution points
Use these signals alongside price action to manually interpret Wyckoff phases.
image.binance.vision
image.binance.vision
What Is the Wyckoff Method?
The Wyckoff Method, developed in the 1930s by Richard Wyckoff, is a market analysis approach that focuses on supply and demand dynamics behind price movements.
Wyckoff’s 5 Phases:
Accumulation: Smart money gradually buying at low prices.
Markup: Price begins trending upwards.
Distribution: Smart money selling to retail traders.
Markdown: Downtrend begins as supply outweighs demand.
Re-accumulation / Re-distribution: Trend-continuation phases with consolidations.
This indicator is specifically designed to detect phase 1 (Accumulation) and phase 3 (Distribution).
Extra Notes
Repainting is minimal, as pivots are confirmed using historical candles.
Labels use plotshape for a clean, minimalist visual style.
Other Wyckoff events (like SOS, LPS, UT, UTAD) could be added in future updates.
This script does not generate buy/sell signals; it is meant for structural interpretation.
Order blocksHi all!
This indicator will show you found order blocks that can be used as supply or demand. It's my take on trying to create good order blocks and I hope it makes sense.
First off I suggest to verify the current trend before using an order block. This can be done in a variety of ways, one way could be to use my other script "Market structure" () which I use and suggest.
You can configure the indicator to behave differently depending on settings. These are the settings available:
• The order blocks created can be found in any higher timeframe defined in "Timeframe"
• The number of active order blocks are defined in "Count". If an order block is found the earliest order block will be replaced
• You can choose the type of order blocks that are found ("Bullish", "Bearish " or "Both") in "Type"
• The old order blocks can be kept if "Keep history" is checked
• Order blocks that are found are not removed when mitigated (entered) but when a new one appears. They can be removed when they are broken by price if "Remove broken zones" are checked
There is also a setting section called "Requirements" that defines what is required for an order block to be created. These are the settings:
• "Take out"
Check this if you want the base of the order block (the candle where the zone is drawn from (high and low)) to have to take out the previous candle (be higher or lower depending if the order block is bullish or bearish).
• "Consecutive rising/falling"
Each following candle in the reaction (the 3 reaction candles) needs to reach higher or lower (depending on bullish or bearish). Check this if you want that to be true.
• "Reaction"
Some sort of reaction is needed from the 3 candles creating the order block. This reaction is based on the value of the Average True Length (ATR) of length 14. You can here define a factor of the value from the ATR that these 3 candles needs to move in price. A higher need for a reaction (higher factor of the ATR) will create lesser zones. You can also choose to show this limit with the checkbox.
• "Fair Value Gap"
The reaction needs to create a gap (imbalance) in price. This gap is known as a "Fair Value Gap" and is created when the last candle's wick does not meet with the base candle's wick. Check this if you want this to be needed.
After these settings you can also choose the colors of the created zones. The ones that are active (called "Zones"), the ones that are replaced ("Replaced zones") and the ones that are broken ("Broken zones") (if this is enabled in "Remove broken zones").
I'm using my library "Touched" to be able to show you labels when the order blocks have a retest, false breakout and breakout. These labels can be hidden if you disable the labels under the style tab in the indicator settings.
The concept of order blocks is widely used among traders and can provide you with good supply or demand zones. I hope that this indicator makes sense.
My todo-list has a few things, but top of that list is adding alerts for zone interactions or creations. Please feel free to say what you want to be coded!
The order blocks in the publication chart are found in weekly timeframe but are shown on the daily timeframe. Other than that the image shows you zones from the default settings (which are based on the daily timeframe).
Best of luck trading!
Balance of Power [Pinescriptlabs]Balance of Power Indicator ⚖️
The Balance of Power Indicator is a visual tool that illustrates the power dynamics between buyers and sellers by analyzing recent price action. Instead of providing direct buy or sell signals, this indicator shows how the tilt of a symbolic scale reflects the relative strength of both parties. The calculation is based on the difference between the current closing price and the closing price from a specific number of periods (defined by the user), adjusted for market volatility measured by the ATR (Average True Range).
Tilt Value Interpretation:
• Positive Tilt (0 to 1) 📈:
o A tilt value close to 1 indicates significant control by buyers. The current price is well above the average adjusted for recent volatility. Practically, a tilt in the range of 0.50 to 1 suggests buyers are pushing the price above the average volatility, signaling a strong bullish trend.
•
o
• Negative Tilt (-1 to 0) 📉:
o A tilt value close to -1 indicates significant control by sellers. The current price has dropped notably compared to the average adjusted for recent volatility. A tilt in the range of -0.50 to -1 suggests sellers are dominating, with the price falling below the average volatility, reflecting a strong bearish trend.
o
Neutral:
Indicator Sensitivity:
The number of periods analyzed affects the sensitivity of the indicator:
• Shorter Periods: Make the indicator respond more quickly to price changes.
• Longer Periods: Smooth out the tilt, providing a more stable view of market forces.
Visualizing Relative Power:
The balance not only shows the general direction of power between buyers and sellers but also the intensity of this pressure. By adding more small balances, the indicator visually represents greater strength in the corresponding direction. Thus, the Balance of Power provides an overview of the balance between supply and demand, and allows for a visual assessment of the magnitude of that pressure based on the scale’s tilt.
Español
Indicador de Balance de Poder ⚖️
El Indicador de Balance de Poder es una herramienta visual que ilustra la dinámica de poder entre compradores y vendedores mediante el análisis de la acción reciente del precio. En lugar de proporcionar señales directas de compra o venta, este indicador muestra cómo la inclinación de una balanza simbólica refleja la fuerza relativa de ambas partes. El cálculo se basa en la diferencia entre el precio de cierre actual y el precio de cierre de un número específico de períodos (definidos por el usuario), ajustado por la volatilidad del mercado medida por el ATR (Average True Range).
#### **Interpretación del Valor de Tilt(inclinación):**
- Tilt Positivo (0 a 1) 📈:
- Un valor de inclinación cercano a **1** indica un control significativo por parte de los compradores. El precio actual está muy por encima del promedio ajustado por la volatilidad reciente. En términos prácticos, un tilt en el rango de **0.50 a 1** sugiere que los compradores están impulsando el precio por encima de la volatilidad promedio, señalando una fuerte tendencia alcista.
- **Tilt Negativo (-1 a 0) 📉:**
- Un valor de inclinación cercano a **-1** indica un control significativo por parte de los vendedores. El precio actual ha caído notablemente en comparación con el promedio ajustado por la volatilidad reciente. Un tilt en el rango de **-0.50 a -1** sugiere que los vendedores están dominando, con el precio cayendo por debajo de la volatilidad promedio, reflejando una fuerte tendencia bajista.
- **Neutral:**
**Sensibilidad del Indicador:**
El número de períodos analizados afecta la sensibilidad del indicador:
- **Períodos más cortos:** Hacen que el indicador responda más rápidamente a los cambios en el precio.
- **Períodos más largos:** Suavizan la inclinación, proporcionando una visión más estable de las fuerzas del mercado.
#### **Visualización del Poder Relativo:**
La balanza no solo muestra la dirección general del poder entre compradores y vendedores, sino también la intensidad de esta presión. Al agregar más pequeñas balanzas, el indicador representa visualmente una mayor fuerza en la dirección correspondiente. Así, el **Balance de Poder** proporciona una visión general del equilibrio entre oferta y demanda y permite una evaluación visual de la magnitud de esa presión basada en la inclinación de la balanza.
Swing Pivots [UkutaLabs]█ OVERVIEW
The Swing Pivots indicator uses relevant price-action information to identify key levels of Support and Resistance. Traders will be able to use current day Swing Pivots as well as mirror higher time frame Swing Pivots to gain a stronger understanding of overall market strength and key levels.
The aim of this script is to improve the users trading experience by offering a versatile toolkit that can be used in a wide variety of trading strategies to help simplify the complexities of the market.
█ USAGE
Throughout the trading day, the script will automatically identify key High and Low levels in the market based on currently relevant price action information, giving users potentially strong support and resistance levels which serve to guide the trader throughout the complexities in the market.
The script will also Identify powerful Order Blocks which are clusters of orders executed at a specific price level which represent an imbalance between supply and demand. By identifying Order Blocks, the script can indicate valuable supply and demand zones which help signal potential market turning points for the trader.
Furthermore, the script allows the user to mirror higher time frame Swing Pivots onto lower time frame charts to gain a stronger understanding of overall market strength and key levels on multiple time frames from a single chart.
█ SETTINGS
Configuration
Pivot Strength: Determines the sensitivity of the pivot calculation. A higher strength will result in less pivots being drawn, and a lower strength will result in more pivots being drawn.
Current Time frame
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the current time frame will be drawn on the chart.
5 Minute (Higher Time Frame)
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the 5 minute time frame will be drawn on the chart.
15 Minute (Higher Time Frame)
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the 15 minute time frame will be drawn on the chart.
30 Minute (Higher Time Frame)
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the 30 minute time frame will be drawn on the chart.
1 Hour (Higher Time Frame)
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the 1 hour time frame will be drawn on the chart.
4 Hour (Higher Time Frame)
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the 4 hour time frame will be drawn on the chart.
Daily (Higher Time Frame)
• Display: Determines whether or not Swing Pivots from the daily time frame will be drawn on the chart.
Double FVG-BPR [QuantVue]The Double FVG BPR Indicator is a versatile tool that helps traders identify potential support and resistance levels through the concept of balanced price ranges.
A Balanced Price Range (BPR) is a zone on a price chart where the market has found equilibrium after a period of price imbalance.
It is identified by detecting a Fair Value Gap (FVG) in one direction, followed by an overlapping Fair Value Gap in the opposite direction.
Components of a Balanced Price Range
Fair Value Gap (FVG): A FVG occurs when there is a rapid price movement, creating a gap in the price chart where minimal trading occurs. This gap represents an imbalance between supply and demand.
Bullish FVG: A bullish FVG is identified when the low of a candle is higher than the high of a candle two periods ago, and the close of the previous candle is higher than the high of that same period.
Bearish FVG: A bearish FVG is identified when the high of a candle is lower than the low of a candle two periods ago, and the close of the previous candle is lower than the low of that same period.
Overlapping Fair Value Gap: For a BPR to be formed, an initial FVG must be followed by an overlapping FVG in the opposite direction. This creates a balanced zone where the price has moved up (or down) quickly and then moved down (or up) with similar intensity, suggesting a temporary equilibrium.
The area between the high and low points of these overlapping FVGs forms the BPR. This zone represents a temporary market equilibrium where supply and demand have balanced out after a period of significant price movement in both directions.
How to Use
Support and Resistance Levels: The upper and lower boundaries of the BPR act as dynamic support and resistance levels. Traders can use these levels to place buy and sell orders, anticipating that the price may find support or face resistance within these zones.
Trend Reversal and Continuation: The BPR can signal potential trend reversals or continuations.
If the price moves back into the BPR after a breakout, it may indicate a reversal. Conversely, if the price breaks out of the BPR with strong momentum, it may signal a trend continuation.
Support and Resistance Breakouts By RICHIESupport and resistance are fundamental concepts in technical analysis used to identify price levels on charts that act as barriers, preventing the price of an asset from getting pushed in a certain direction. Here’s a detailed description of each and how breakout strategies are typically used:
Support
Support is a price level where a downtrend can be expected to pause due to a concentration of demand. As the price of an asset drops, it hits a level where buyers tend to step in, causing the price to rebound.
Support Level Identification: Support levels are identified by looking at historical data where prices have repeatedly fallen to a certain level but have then rebounded.
Strength of Support: The more times an asset price hits a support level without breaking below it, the stronger that support level is considered to be.
Resistance
Resistance is a price level where an uptrend can be expected to pause due to a concentration of selling interest. As the price of an asset increases, it hits a level where sellers tend to step in, causing the price to drop.
Resistance Level Identification: Resistance levels are identified by looking at historical data where prices have repeatedly risen to a certain level but have then fallen back.
Strength of Resistance: The more times an asset price hits a resistance level without breaking above it, the stronger that resistance level is considered to be.
Breakouts
A breakout occurs when the price moves above a resistance level or below a support level with increased volume. Breakouts can be significant because they suggest a change in supply and demand dynamics, often leading to strong price movements.
Breakout Above Resistance: Indicates a bullish market sentiment. Traders often interpret this as a sign to enter a long position (buy).
Breakout Below Support: Indicates a bearish market sentiment. Traders often interpret this as a sign to enter a short position (sell).
Breakout Trading Strategies
Confirmation: Wait for a candle to close beyond the support or resistance level to confirm the breakout.
Volume: Increased volume on a breakout adds credibility, suggesting that the price move is supported by strong buying or selling interest.
Retest: Sometimes, after a breakout, the price will return to the breakout level to test it as a new support or resistance. This retest offers another entry point.
Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss orders just below the resistance (for long positions) or above the support (for short positions) to limit potential losses in case of a false breakout.
Take-Profit: Identify target levels for taking profits. These can be set based on previous support/resistance levels or using tools like Fibonacci retracements.
MOST + Moving Average ScreenerScreener version of Anıl Özekşi's Moving Stop Loss (MOST) Indicator:
USERS MAY SCREEN MOST WITH 11 DIFFERENT TYPES OF MOVING AVERAGES + THEY CAN ALSO SCREEN SIGNALS WITH THAT 11 MOVING AVERAGES INSTEAD OF USING MOST LINE.
Adjustable Moving Average Types:
SMA : Simple Moving Average
EMA : Exponential Moving Average
WMA : Weighted Moving Average
DEMA : Double Exponential Moving Average
TMA : Triangular Moving Average
VAR : Variable Index Dynamic Moving Average aka VIDYA
WWMA : Welles Wilder's Moving Average
ZLEMA : Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average
TSF : True Strength Force
HULL : Hull Moving Average
TILL : Tillson T3 Moving Average
About Screener Panel:
Users can explore 20 different and user-defined tickers, which can be changed from the SETTINGS (shares, crypto, commodities...) on this screener version.
The screener panel shows up right after the bars on the right side of the chart.
-In this screener version of MOST, users can define the number of demanded tickers (symbols) from 1 to 20 by checking the relevant boxes on the settings tab.
-All selected tickers can be screened in different timeframes.
-Also, different timeframes of the same Ticker can be screened.
IMPORTANT NOTICE:
Screener shows the results in 3 different logic:
1st LOGIC (Default Settings):
BUY AND SELL SIGNALS of MOST and MOVING AVERAGE LINE
Most Buy Signal: Moving Average Crosses ABOVE the MOST LINE
Most Sel Signal: Moving Average Crosses BELOW the MOST LINE
Tickers seen in green are the ones that are in an uptrend, according to MOST.
The ones that appear in red are those in the SELL signal, in a downtrend.
The numbers before each Ticker indicate how many bars passed after MOST's last BUY or SELL signal.
For example, according to the indicator, when BTCUSDT appears (3) in GREEN, Bitcoin switched to a BUY signal 3 bars ago.
2nd LOGIC (Moving Average & Price Flips Screener Mode):
This mode can only be activated by checking the 'Activate Moving Average Screening Mode' box on the settings menu.
MOST line will be disappeared after checking the box.
Buy Signal: When the Selected Price crosses ABOVE the selected Moving Average.
Sell Signal: When the Selected Price crosses BELOW the selected Moving Average.
Tickers seen in green are the ones that are in an uptrend, according to Moving Average & Price Flips.
The ones that appear in red are those in the SELL signal, in a downtrend.
The numbers before each Ticker indicate how many bars passed after the last BUY or SELL signal of Moving Average & Price Flips.
For example, according to the indicator, when BTCUSDT appears (3) in GREEN, Bitcoin switched to a BUY signal 3 bars ago.
3rd LOGIC (Moving Average Color Change Screener Mode):
Both 'Activate Moving Average Screening Mode' and 'Activate Moving Average Color Change Screening Mode' boxes must be checked in the settings tab.
Moving Average Line will turn out into two colors.
Green color means the moving average value is greater than the previous bar's value.
Red color means the moving average value is smaller than the previous bar's value.
Buy Signal: After the Selected Moving Average turns GREEN from red.
Sell Signal: After the Selected Moving Average turns RED from green.
-Screener shows the information about the color changes of the selected Moving Average with default settings.
If this option is preferred, users are advised to enlarge the length to have better signals.
Tickers seen in green are the ones that are in an uptrend, according to Moving Average Color.
The ones that appear in red are those in the SELL signal, in a downtrend.
The numbers before each Ticker indicate how many bars passed after the last BUY or SELL signal of Moving Average Color Change.
For example, according to the indicator, when BTCUSDT appears (3) in GREEN, Bitcoin switched to a BUY signal 3 bars ago.
Tillson T3 Moving Average - ScreenerScreener version of Tillson T3 Moving Average:
The T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and, thus, is mainly traded in the same manner. Here are several assumptions:
Suppose the price action is above the T3 Moving Average, and the indicator is upward. In that case, we have a bullish trend and should only enter long trades (advisable for novice/intermediate traders). If the price is below the T3 Moving Average and edging lower, we have a bearish trend and should limit entries to short.
About Screener Panel:
Users can explore 20 different and user-defined tickers, which can be changed from the SETTINGS (shares, crypto, commodities...) on this screener version.
The screener panel shows up right after the bars on the right side of the chart.
Tickers seen in green are the ones that are in an uptrend, according to T3.
The ones that appear in red are those in the SELL signal, in a downtrend.
The numbers in front of each Ticker indicate how many bars passed after the last BUY or SELL signal of T3.
For example, according to the indicator, when BTCUSDT appears (3) in GREEN, Bitcoin switched to a BUY signal 3 bars ago.
-In this screener version of Tillson T3 Moving Average, users can define the number of demanded tickers (symbols) from 1 to 20 by checking the relevant boxes on the settings tab.
-All selected tickers can be screened in different timeframes.
-Also, different timeframes of the same Ticker can be screened.
IMPORTANT NOTICE:
Screener shows the results in 2 different logic:
-Screener shows the information about the color changes of the T3 Moving Average with default settings.
-Users can check the "Change Screener to show T3 & Price Flips" button to activate the screener giving information about price flips.
If this option is preferred, users are advised to enlarge the length to have better signals.
MavilimW ScreenerScreener version of MavilimW Moving Average :
Short-Term Examples (by decreasing 3 and 5 default values to have trading signals from color changes)
BUY when MavilimW turns blue from red.
SELL when MavW turns red from blue.
Long-Term Examples (with Default values 3 and 5)
BUY when the price crosses over the MavilimW line
SELL when the price crosses below the MavW line
MavilimW can also define significant SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels in every period with its default values 3 and 5.
Screener Panel:
You can explore 20 different and user-defined tickers, which can be changed from the SETTINGS (shares, crypto, commodities...) on this screener version.
The screener panel shows up right after the bars on the right side of the chart.
Tickers seen in green are the ones that are in an uptrend, according to MavilimW.
The ones that appear in red are those in the SELL signal, in a downtrend.
The numbers in front of each Ticker indicate how many bars passed after the last BUY or SELL signal of MavW.
For example, according to the indicator, when BTCUSDT appears (3) in GREEN, Bitcoin switched to a BUY signal 3 bars ago.
-In this screener version of MavilimW, users can define the number of demanded tickers (symbols) from 1 to 20 by checking the relevant boxes on the settings tab.
-All selected tickers can be screened in different timeframes.
-Also, different timeframes of the same Ticker can be screened.
IMPORTANT NOTICE:
-Screener shows the information about the color changes of MavilimW Moving Average with default settings (as explained in the Short-Term Example section).
-Users can check the "Change Screener to show MavilimW & Price Flips" button to activate the screener as explained in the Short-Term Example section. Then the screener will give information about price flips.
Martingale Strategy Simulator [BackQuant]Martingale Strategy Simulator
Purpose
This indicator lets you study how a martingale-style position sizing rule interacts with a simple long or short trading signal. It computes an equity curve from bar-to-bar returns, adapts position size after losing streaks, caps exposure at a user limit, and summarizes risk with portfolio metrics. An optional Monte Carlo module projects possible future equity paths from your realized daily returns.
What a martingale is
A martingale sizing rule increases stake after losses and resets after a win. In its classical form from gambling, you double the bet after each loss so that a single win recovers all prior losses plus one unit of profit. In markets there is no fixed “even-money” payout and returns are multiplicative, so an exact recovery guarantee does not exist. The core idea is unchanged:
Lose one leg → increase next position size
Lose again → increase again
Win → reset to the base size
The expectation of your strategy still depends on the signal’s edge. Sizing does not create positive expectancy on its own. A martingale raises variance and tail risk by concentrating more capital as a losing streak develops.
What it plots
Equity – simulated portfolio equity including compounding
Buy & Hold – equity from holding the chart symbol for context
Optional helpers – last trade outcome, current streak length, current allocation fraction
Optional diagnostics – daily portfolio return, rolling drawdown, metrics table
Optional Monte Carlo probability cone – p5, p16, p50, p84, p95 aggregate bands
Model assumptions
Bar-close execution with no slippage or commissions
Shorting allowed and frictionless
No margin interest, borrow fees, or position limits
No intrabar moves or gaps within a bar (returns are close-to-close)
Sizing applies to equity fraction only and is capped by your setting
All results are hypothetical and for education only.
How the simulator applies it
1) Directional signal
You pick a simple directional rule that produces +1 for long or −1 for short each bar. Options include 100 HMA slope, RSI above or below 50, EMA or SMA crosses, CCI and other oscillators, ATR move, BB basis, and more. The stance is evaluated bar by bar. When the stance flips, the current trade ends and the next one starts.
2) Sizing after losses and wins
Position size is a fraction of equity:
Initial allocation – the starting fraction, for example 0.15 means 15 percent of equity
Increase after loss – multiply the next allocation by your factor after a losing leg, for example 2.00 to double
Reset after win – return to the initial allocation
Max allocation cap – hard ceiling to prevent runaway growth
At a high level the size after k consecutive losses is
alloc(k) = min( cap , base × factor^k ) .
In practice the simulator changes size only when a leg ends and its PnL is known.
3) Equity update
Let r_t = close_t / close_{t-1} − 1 be the symbol’s bar return, d_{t−1} ∈ {+1, −1} the prior bar stance, and a_{t−1} the prior bar allocation fraction. The simulator compounds:
eq_t = eq_{t−1} × (1 + a_{t−1} × d_{t−1} × r_t) .
This is bar-based and avoids intrabar lookahead. Costs, slippage, and borrowing costs are not modeled.
Why traders experiment with martingale sizing
Mean-reversion contexts – if the signal often snaps back after a string of losses, adding size near the tail of a move can pull the average entry closer to the turn
Behavioral or microstructure edges – some rules have modest edge but frequent small whipsaws; size escalation may shorten time-to-recovery when the edge manifests
Exploration and stress testing – studying the relationship between streaks, caps, and drawdowns is instructive even if you do not deploy martingale sizing live
Why martingale is dangerous
Martingale concentrates capital when the strategy is performing worst. The main risks are structural, not cosmetic:
Loss streaks are inevitable – even with a 55 percent win rate you should expect multi-loss runs. The probability of at least one k-loss streak in N trades rises quickly with N.
Size explodes geometrically – with factor 2.0 and base 10 percent, the sequence is 10, 20, 40, 80, 100 (capped) after five losses. Without a strict cap, required size becomes infeasible.
No fixed payout – in gambling, one win at even odds resets PnL. In markets, there is no guaranteed bounce nor fixed profit multiple. Trends can extend and gaps can skip levels.
Correlation of losses – losses cluster in trends and in volatility bursts. A martingale tends to be largest just when volatility is highest.
Margin and liquidity constraints – leverage limits, margin calls, position limits, and widening spreads can force liquidation before a mean reversion occurs.
Fat tails and regime shifts – assumptions of independent, Gaussian returns can understate tail risk. Structural breaks can keep the signal wrong for much longer than expected.
The simulator exposes these dynamics in the equity curve, Max Drawdown, VaR and CVaR, and via Monte Carlo sketches of forward uncertainty.
Interpreting losing streaks with numbers
A rough intuition: if your per-trade win probability is p and loss probability is q=1−p , the chance of a specific run of k consecutive losses is q^k . Over many trades, the chance that at least one k-loss run occurs grows with the number of opportunities. As a sanity check:
If p=0.55 , then q=0.45 . A 6-loss run has probability q^6 ≈ 0.008 on any six-trade window. Across hundreds of trades, a 6 to 8-loss run is not rare.
If your size factor is 1.5 and your base is 10 percent, after 8 losses the requested size is 10% × 1.5^8 ≈ 25.6% . With factor 2.0 it would try to be 10% × 2^8 = 256% but your cap will stop it. The equity curve will still wear the compounded drawdown from the sequence that led to the cap.
This is why the cap setting is central. It does not remove tail risk, but it prevents the sizing rule from demanding impossible positions
Note: The p and q math is illustrative. In live data the win rate and distribution can drift over time, so real streaks can be longer or shorter than the simple q^k intuition suggests..
Using the simulator productively
Parameter studies
Start with conservative settings. Increase one element at a time and watch how the equity, Max Drawdown, and CVaR respond.
Initial allocation – lower base reduces volatility and drawdowns across the board
Increase factor – set modestly above 1.0 if you want the effect at all; doubling is aggressive
Max cap – the most important brake; many users keep it between 20 and 50 percent
Signal selection
Keep sizing fixed and rotate signals to see how streak patterns differ. Trend-following signals tend to produce long wrong-way streaks in choppy ranges. Mean-reversion signals do the opposite. Martingale sizing interacts very differently with each.
Diagnostics to watch
Use the built-in metrics to quantify risk:
Max Drawdown – worst peak-to-trough equity loss
Sharpe and Sortino – volatility and downside-adjusted return
VaR 95 percent and CVaR – tail risk measures from the realized distribution
Alpha and Beta – relationship to your chosen benchmark
If you would like to check out the original performance metrics script with multiple assets with a better explanation on all metrics please see
Monte Carlo exploration
When enabled, the forecast draws many synthetic paths from your realized daily returns:
Choose a horizon and a number of runs
Review the bands: p5 to p95 for a wide risk envelope; p16 to p84 for a narrower range; p50 as the median path
Use the table to read the expected return over the horizon and the tail outcomes
Remember it is a sketch based on your recent distribution, not a predictor
Concrete examples
Example A: Modest martingale
Base 10 percent, factor 1.25, cap 40 percent, RSI>50 signal. You will see small escalations on 2 to 4 loss runs and frequent resets. The equity curve usually remains smooth unless the signal enters a prolonged wrong-way regime. Max DD may rise moderately versus fixed sizing.
Example B: Aggressive martingale
Base 15 percent, factor 2.0, cap 60 percent, EMA cross signal. The curve can look stellar during favorable regimes, then a single extended streak pushes allocation to the cap, and a few more losses drive deep drawdown. CVaR and Max DD jump sharply. This is a textbook case of high tail risk.
Strengths
Bar-by-bar, transparent computation of equity from stance and size
Explicit handling of wins, losses, streaks, and caps
Portable signal inputs so you can A–B test ideas quickly
Risk diagnostics and forward uncertainty visualization in one place
Example, Rolling Max Drawdown
Limitations and important notes
Martingale sizing can escalate drawdowns rapidly. The cap limits position size but not the possibility of extended adverse runs.
No commissions, slippage, margin interest, borrow costs, or liquidity limits are modeled.
Signals are evaluated on closes. Real execution and fills will differ.
Monte Carlo assumes independent draws from your recent return distribution. Markets often have serial correlation, fat tails, and regime changes.
All results are hypothetical. Use this as an educational tool, not a production risk engine.
Practical tips
Prefer gentle factors such as 1.1 to 1.3. Doubling is usually excessive outside of toy examples.
Keep a strict cap. Many users cap between 20 and 40 percent of equity per leg.
Stress test with different start dates and subperiods. Long flat or trending regimes are where martingale weaknesses appear.
Compare to an anti-martingale (increase after wins, cut after losses) to understand the other side of the trade-off.
If you deploy sizing live, add external guardrails such as a daily loss cut, volatility filters, and a global max drawdown stop.
Settings recap
Backtest start date and initial capital
Initial allocation, increase-after-loss factor, max allocation cap
Signal source selector
Trading days per year and risk-free rate
Benchmark symbol for Alpha and Beta
UI toggles for equity, buy and hold, labels, metrics, PnL, and drawdown
Monte Carlo controls for enable, runs, horizon, and result table
Final thoughts
A martingale is not a free lunch. It is a way to tilt capital allocation toward losing streaks. If the signal has a real edge and mean reversion is common, careful and capped escalation can reduce time-to-recovery. If the signal lacks edge or regimes shift, the same rule can magnify losses at the worst possible moment. This simulator makes those trade-offs visible so you can calibrate parameters, understand tail risk, and decide whether the approach belongs anywhere in your research workflow.
Information-Geometric Market DynamicsInformation-Geometric Market Dynamics
The Information Field: A Geometric Approach to Market Dynamics
By: DskyzInvestments
Foreword: Beyond the Shadows on the Wall
If you have traded for any length of time, you know " the feeling ." It is the frustration of a perfect setup that fails, the whipsaw that stops you out just before the real move, the nagging sense that the chart is telling you only half the story. For decades, technical analysis has relied on interpreting the shadows—the patterns left behind by price. We draw lines on these shadows, apply indicators to them, and hope they reveal the future.
But what if we could stop looking at the shadows and, instead, analyze the object casting them?
This script introduces a new paradigm for market analysis: Information-Geometric Market Dynamics (IGMD) . The core premise of IGMD is that the price chart is merely a one-dimensional projection of a much richer, higher-dimensional reality—an " information field " generated by the collective actions and beliefs of all market participants.
This is not just another collection of indicators. It is a unified framework for measuring the geometry of the market's information field—its memory, its complexity, its uncertainty, its causal flows—and making high-probability decisions based on that deeper reality. By fusing advanced mathematical and informational concepts, IGMD provides a multi-faceted lens through which to view market behavior, moving beyond simple price action into the very structure of market information itself.
Prepare to move beyond the flatland of the price chart. Welcome to the information field.
The IGMD Framework: A Multi-Kernel Approach
What is a Kernel? The Heart of Transformation
In mathematics and data science, a kernel is a powerful and elegant concept. At its core, a kernel is a function that takes complex, often inscrutable data and transforms it into a more useful format. Think of it as a specialized lens or a mathematical "probe." You cannot directly measure abstract concepts like "market memory" or "trend quality" by looking at a price number. First, you must process the raw price data through a specific mathematical machine—a kernel—that is designed to output a measurement of that specific property. Kernels operate by performing a sort of "similarity test," projecting data into a higher-dimensional space where hidden patterns and relationships become visible and measurable.
Why do creators use them? We use kernels to extract features —meaningful pieces of information—that are not explicitly present in the raw data. They are the essential tools for moving beyond surface-level analysis into the very DNA of market behavior. A simple moving average can tell you the average price; a suite of well-chosen kernels can tell you about the character of the price action itself.
The Alchemist's Challenge: The Art of Fusion
Using a single kernel is a challenge. Using five distinct, computationally demanding mathematical engines in unison is an immense undertaking. The true difficulty—and artistry—lies not just in using one kernel, but in fusing the outputs of many . Each kernel provides a different perspective, and they can often give conflicting signals. One kernel might detect a strong trend, while another signals rising chaos and uncertainty. The IGMD script's greatest strength is its ability to act as this alchemist, synthesizing these disparate viewpoints through a weighted fusion process to produce a single, coherent picture of the market's state. It required countless hours of testing and calibration to balance the influence of these five distinct analytical engines so they work in harmony rather than cacophony.
The Five Kernels of Market Dynamics
The IGMD script is built upon a foundation of five distinct kernels, each chosen to probe a unique and critical dimension of the market's information field.
1. The Wavelet Kernel (The "Microscope")
What it is: The Wavelet Kernel is a signal processing function designed to decompose a signal into different frequency scales. Unlike a Fourier Transform that analyzes the entire signal at once, the wavelet slides across the data, providing information about both what frequencies are present and when they occurred.
The Kernels I Use:
Haar Kernel: The simplest wavelet, a square-wave shape defined by the coefficients . It excels at detecting sharp, sudden changes.
Daubechies 2 (db2) Kernel: A more complex and smoother wavelet shape that provides a better balance for analyzing the nuanced ebb and flow of typical market trends.
How it Works in the Script: This kernel is applied iteratively. It first separates the finest "noise" (detail d1) from the first level of trend (approximation a1). It then takes the trend a1 and repeats the process, extracting the next level of cycle (d2) and trend (a2), and so on. This hierarchical decomposition allows us to separate short-term noise from the long-term market "thesis."
2. The Hurst Exponent Kernel (The "Memory Gauge")
What it is: The Hurst Exponent is derived from a statistical analysis kernel that measures the "long-term memory" or persistence of a time series. It is the definitive measure of whether a series is trending (H > 0.5), mean-reverting (H < 0.5), or random (H = 0.5).
How it Works in the Script: The script employs a method based on Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis. It calculates the average range of price movements over increasingly larger time lags (m1, m2, m4, m8...). The slope of the line plotting log(range) vs. log(lag) is the Hurst Exponent. Applying this complex statistical analysis not to the raw price, but to the clean, wavelet-decomposed trend lines, is a key innovation of IGMD.
3. The Fractal Dimension Kernel (The "Complexity Compass")
What it is: This kernel measures the geometric complexity or "jaggedness" of a price path, based on the principles of fractal geometry. A straight line has a dimension of 1; a chaotic, space-filling line approaches a dimension of 2.
How it Works in the Script: We use a version based on Ehlers' Fractal Dimension Index (FDI). It calculates the rate of price change over a full lookback period (N3) and compares it to the sum of the rates of change over the two halves of that period (N1 + N2). The formula d = (log(N1 + N2) - log(N3)) / log(2) quantifies how much "longer" and more convoluted the price path was than a simple straight line. This kernel is our primary filter for tradeable (low complexity) vs. untradeable (high complexity) conditions.
4. The Shannon Entropy Kernel (The "Uncertainty Meter")
What it is: This kernel comes from Information Theory and provides the purest mathematical measure of information, surprise, or uncertainty within a system. It is not a measure of volatility; a market moving predictably up by 10 points every bar has high volatility but zero entropy .
How it Works in the Script: The script normalizes price returns by the ATR, categorizes them into a discrete number of "bins" over a lookback window, and forms a probability distribution. The Shannon Entropy H = -Σ(p_i * log(p_i)) is calculated from this distribution. A low H means returns are predictable. A high H means returns are chaotic. This kernel is our ultimate gauge of market conviction.
5. The Transfer Entropy Kernel (The "Causality Probe")
What it is: This is by far the most advanced and computationally intensive kernel in the script. Transfer Entropy is a non-parametric measure of directed information flow between two time series. It moves beyond correlation to ask: "Does knowing the past of Volume genuinely reduce our uncertainty about the future of Price?"
How it Works in the Script: To make this work, the script discretizes both price returns and the chosen "driver" (e.g., OBV) into three states: "up," "down," or "neutral." It then builds complex conditional probability tables to measure the flow of information in both directions. The Net Transfer Entropy (TE Driver→Price minus TE Price→Driver) gives us a direct measure of causality . A positive score means the driver is leading price, confirming the validity of the move. This is a profound leap beyond traditional indicator analysis.
Chapter 3: Fusion & Interpretation - The Field Score & Dashboard
Each kernel is a specialist providing a piece of the puzzle. The Field Score is where they are fused into a single, comprehensive reading. It's a weighted sum of the normalized scores from all five kernels, producing a single number from -1 (maximum bearish information field) to +1 (maximum bullish information field). This is the ultimate "at-a-glance" metric for the market's net state, and it is interpreted through the dashboard.
The Dashboard: Your Mission Control
Field Score & Regime: The master metric and its plain-English interpretation ("Uptrend Field", "Downtrend Field", "Transitional").
Kernel Readouts (Wave Align, H(w), FDI, etc.): The live scores of each individual kernel. This allows you to see why the Field Score is what it is. A high Field Score with all components in agreement (all green or red) is a state of High Coherence and represents a high-quality setup.
Market Context: Standard metrics like RSI and Volume for additional confluence.
Signals: The raw and adjusted confluence counts and the final, calculated probability scores for potential long and short entries.
Pattern: Shows the dominant candlestick pattern detected within the currently forming APEX range box and its calculated confidence percentage.
Chapter 4: Mastering the Controls - The Inputs Menu
Every parameter is a lever to fine-tune the IGMD engine.
📊 Wavelet Transform: Kernel ( Haar for sharp moves, db2 for smooth trends) and Scales (depth of analysis) let you tune the script's core microscope to your asset's personality.
📈 Hurst Exponent: The Window determines if you're assessing short-term or long-term market memory.
🔍 Fractal Dimension & ⚡ Entropy Volatility: Adjust the lookback windows to make these kernels more or less sensitive to recent price action. Always keep "Normalize by ATR" enabled for Entropy for consistent results.
🔄 Transfer Entropy: Driver lets you choose what causal force to measure (e.g., OBV, Volume, or even an external symbol like VIX). The throttle setting is a crucial performance tool, allowing you to balance precision with script speed.
⚡ Field Fusion • Weights: This is where you can customize the model's "brain." Increase the weights for the kernels that best align with your trading philosophy (e.g., w_hurst for trend followers, w_fdi for chop avoiders).
📊 Signal Engine: Mode offers presets from Conservative to Aggressive . Min Confluence sets your evidence threshold. Dynamic Confluence is a powerful feature that automatically adapts this threshold to the market regime.
🎨 Visuals & 📏 Support/Resistance: These inputs give you full control over the chart's appearance, allowing you to toggle every visual element for a setup that is as clean or as data-rich as you desire.
Chapter 5: Reading the Battlefield - On-Chart Visuals
Pattern Boxes (The Large Rectangles): These are not simple range boxes. They appear when the Field Score crosses a significance threshold, signaling a potential ignition point.
Color: The color reflects the dominant candlestick pattern that has occurred within that box's duration (e.g., green for Bull Engulf).
Label: Displays the dominant pattern, its duration in bars, and a calculated Confidence % based on field strength and pattern clarity.
Bar Pattern Boxes (The Small Boxes): If enabled, these highlight individual, significant candlestick patterns ( BE for Bull Engulf, H for Hammer) on a bar-by-bar basis.
Signal Markers (▲ and ▼): These appear only when the Signal Engine's criteria are all met. The number is the calculated Probability Score .
RR Rails (Dashed Lines): When a signal appears, these lines automatically plot the Entry, Stop Loss (based on ATR), and two Take Profit targets (based on Risk/Reward ratios). They dynamically break and disappear as price touches each level.
Support & Resistance Lines: Plots of the highest high ( Resistance ) and lowest low ( Support ) over a lookback, providing key structural levels.
Chapter 6: Development Philosophy & A Final Word
One single question: " What is the market really doing? " It represents a triumph of complexity, blending concepts from signal processing, chaos theory, and information theory into a cohesive framework. It is offered for educational and analytical purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Its goal is to elevate your analysis from interpreting flat shadows to measuring the rich, geometric reality of the market's information field.
As the great mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot , father of fractal geometry, noted:
"Clouds are not spheres, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not circles, and bark is not smooth, nor does lightning travel in a straight line."
Neither does the market. IGMD is a tool designed to navigate that beautiful, complex, and fractal reality.
— Dskyz, Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
