Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator - Daily Timeframe Only1 Day Timeframe Only
The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator has garnered attention for its historical effectiveness in identifying the timing of Bitcoin's market cycle peaks with remarkable precision, typically within a margin of 3 days.
It utilizes a specific combination of moving averages—the 111-day moving average and a 2x multiple of the 350-day moving average—to signal potential tops in the Bitcoin market.
The 111-day moving average (MA): This shorter-term MA is chosen to reflect more recent price action and trends within the Bitcoin market.
The 350-day moving average (MA) multiplied by 2: This longer-term MA is adjusted to capture broader market trends and cycles over an extended period.
The key premise behind the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator is that a potential market top for Bitcoin can be signaled when the 111-day MA crosses above the 350-day MA (which has been doubled). Historically, this crossover event has shown a remarkable correlation with the peaks of Bitcoin's price cycles, making it a tool of interest for traders and investors aiming to anticipate significant market shifts.
#Bitcoin
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Bitcoin Price to Volume per $1 FeeTransaction value to transaction fee:
The Bitcoin network's efficiency, usability and volume scalability has been improving over time and this can be measured by dividing the average transaction volume by the transaction fee.
The indicator give us:
Price to volume per $1 fee = BTC price / (avg tx value / avg tx fee)
A low ratio of "Price to volume per $1 fee" indicates that the Bitcoin network is being used for high volumes in comparison to the Bitcoin price, which means that the network is cost-effective compared to the price. On the other hand, a high "Price to volume per $1 fee" suggests that the average transaction size is smaller than the price of Bitcoin, which means that the network is less cost-effective compared to the Bitcoin price.
Note that the dynamics of transaction fees may change over time as new use cases emerge in the Bitcoin chain. These use cases include L2s such as Stacks, where DeFi applications can run, and Bitcoin Ordinals.
It's worth mentioning that Bitcoin is not only a cost-effective way of transferring value, but also highly energy efficient. Despite receiving criticism for its energy consumption, when we compare its energy usage to other industries (such as banking and gold) and correlate it with the transaction volumes, we can easily conclude that Bitcoin's energy efficiency is remarkable when compared to other methods of transferring value.
Bitcoin Google Trends OverlayThis indicator overlays Bitcoin Google trends data starting from 16/12/2018 until 10/12/2023. To have more recent data, you will need to update the data points manually.
If it is not showing properly, you need to plot the indicator to a new scale. Try also to use a logarithmic scale to better correlate the Bitcoin Google Trends data.
Interpretation:
Google Trends data and the Bitcoin price are very correlated. Google Trends data is a good indicator of market sentiment, but it usually lags.
Bitcoin Correlation MapHello everyone,
This indicator shows the correlation coefficients of altcoins with bitcoin in a table.
What is the correlation coefficient?
The correlation coefficient is a value that takes a value between 0 and 1 when a parity makes similar movements with the reference parity, and takes a value between 0 and -1 when it makes opposite movements.
In order to obtain more meaningful and real-time results in this indicator, the weighted average of the correlation values of the last 200bar was used. You can change the bar length as you wish. With the correlation value, you can see the parities that have similar movements with bitcoin and integrate them into your strategy.
You can change the coin list as you wish, and you can also calculate their correlation with etherium instead of bitcoin .
The indicator shows the correlation value of 36 altcoins at the moment.
The indicator indicates the color of the correlated parities as green and the color of the inversely correlated parities as red.
Cheers
Bitcoin Miner Extreme SellingThis script is for identifying extreme selling. Judging by the chart, Bitcoin miners often (not always) sell hard for two reasons: to take profit into parabolic price rises, or to stay solvent when the price is very low.
Extreme selling thus often coincides with long-term tops and bottoms in Bitcoin price. This can be a useful EXTRA data point when trying to time long-term Bitcoin spot or crypto equity investment (NOT advice, you remain responsible, etc). The difference between selling measured in BTC and in USD gives a reasonable idea of whether miners are selling to make a profit or to stay solvent.
CREDITS
The idea for using the ratio of miner outflows to reserves comes from the "Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure" script by the pioneering capriole_charles.
The two request.security calls are identical. Another similarity is that you have to sum the outflows to make it make sense. But it doesn't make much difference, it turns out from testing, to use an average of the reserves, so I didn't. All other code is different.
The script from capriole_charles uses Bollinger bands to highlight periods when sell pressure is high, uses a rolling 30-day sum, and only uses the BTC metrics.
My script uses a configurable 2-6 week rolling sum (there's nothing magical about one month), uses different calculations, and uses BTC, USD, and composite metrics.
INPUTS
Rolling Time Basis : Determines how much data is rolled up. At the lowest level, daily data is too volatile. If you choose, e.g., 1 week, then the indicator displays the relative selling on a weekly basis. Longer time periods, obviously, are smoother but delayed, while shorter time periods are more reactive. There is no "real" time period, only an explicit interpretation.
Show Data > Outflows : Displays the relative selling data, along with a long-term moving average. You might use this option if you want to compare the "real" heights of peaks across history.
Show Data > Delta (the default): Only the difference between the relative selling and the long-term moving average is displayed, along with an average of *that*. This is more signal and less noise.
Base Currency : Configure whether the calculations use BTC or USD as the metric. This setting doesn't use the BTC price at all; it switches the data requested from INTOTHEBLOCK.
If you choose Composite (the default), the script combines BTC and USD together in a relative way (you can't simply add them, as USD is a much bigger absolute value).
In Composite mode, the peaks are coloured red if BTC selling is higher than USD, which usually indicates forced selling, and green if USD is higher, which usually indicates profit-taking. This categorisation is not perfectly accurate but it is interesting insomuch as it is derived from block data and not Bitcoin price.
In BTC or USD mode, a gradient is used to give a rough visual idea of how far from the average the current value is, and to make it look pretty.
USAGE NOTES
Because of the long-term moving averages, the length of the chart does make a difference. I recommend running the script on the longest Bitcoin chart, ticker BLX.
To use it to compare selling with pivots in crypto equities, use a split chart: one BLX with the indicator applied, and one with the equity of your choice. Sync Interval, Crosshair, Time, and Date Range, but not Symbol.
Bitcoin Golden Pi CyclesTops are signaled by the fast top MA crossing above the slow top MA, and bottoms are signaled by the slow bottom MA crossing above the fast bottom MA. Alerts can be set on top and bottom prints. Does not repaint.
Similar to the work of Philip Swift regarding the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top, I’ve recently come across a similar mathematically curious ratio that corresponds to Bitcoin cycle bottoms. This ratio was extracted from skirmantas’ Bitcoin Super Cycle indicator . Cycle bottoms are signaled when the 700D SMA crosses above the 137D SMA (because this indicator is closed source, these moving averages were reverse-engineered). Such crossings have historically coincided with the January 2015 and December 2018 bottoms. Also, although yet to be confirmed as a bottom, a cross occurred June 19, 2022 (two days prior to this article)
The original pi cycle uses the doubled 350D SMA and the 111D SMA . As pointed out this gives the original pi cycle top ratio:
350/111 = 3.1532 ≈ π
Also, as noted by Swift, 111 is the best integer for dividing 350 to approximate π. What is mathematically interesting about skirmanta’s ratio?
700/138 = 5.1095
After playing around with this for a while I realized that 5.11 is very close to the product of the two most numerologically significant geometrical constants, π and the golden ratio, ϕ:
πϕ = 5.0832
However, 138 turns out to be the best integer denominator to approximate πϕ:
700/138 = 5.0725 ≈ πϕ
This is what I’ve dubbed the Bitcoin Golden Pi Bottom Ratio.
In the spirit of numerology I must mention that 137 does have some things going for it: it’s a prime number and is very famously almost exactly the reciprocal of the fine structure constant (α is within 0.03% of 1/137).
Now why 350 and 700 and not say 360 and 720? After all, 360 is obviously much more numerologically significant than 350, which is proven by the fact that 360 has its own wikipedia page, and 350 does not! Using 360/115 and 720/142, which are also approximations of π and πϕ respectively, this also calls cycle tops and bottoms.
There are infinitely many such ratios that could work to approximate π and πϕ (although there are a finite number whose daily moving averages are defined). Further analysis is needed to find the range(s) of numerators (the numerator determines the denominator when maintaining the ratio) that correctly produce bottom and top signals.
Bitcoin Risk RangeThis is an extension of the original 'Bitcoin Bubble' indicator I previously made, but shows the necessary price required to reach a range of bitcoin's bubble level in the short term. I recommend using this metric with a daily timeframe to have an adequate amount of data.
Bitcoin Movement vs. Coin's Movement MTFThis script tracks the percent change of Bitcoin vs. the percent change of the coin on the chart. Crypto markets are usually affected greatly by Bitcoin swings so being able to see if the given coin is trending above or below Bitcoin is useful market data. All choices made with this script are your own! Thanks.
Bitcoin - CME Futures Friday Close
This indicator displays the weekly Friday closing price according to the CME trading hours (Friday 4pm CT).
A horizontal line is displayed until the CME opens again on Sunday 5pm CT.
This indicator is based on the thesis, that during the weekend the Bitcoin price tends to mean reverse to the CME closing price of the prior Friday. The level can also act as support/resistance. This indicator gives a visualization of this key level for the relevant time window.
Furthermore the indicator helps to easily identify, if there is an up or down gap in the CME Bitcoin contract.
Bitcoin Daily Support/ResistanceA new indicator for tradingview.
Indicator Overview
The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Note: the x5 multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit.
Why This Happens
As Bitcoin is adopted, it moves through market cycles. These are created by periods where market participants are over-excited causing the price to over-extend, and periods where they are overly pessimistic where the price over-contracts. Identifying and understanding these periods can be beneficial to the long term investor.
This tool is a simple and effective way to highlight those periods
MA 50/100/150 was historically good support and resistance. When we cross them we have a new trend that is established.
Bitcoin Funds PremiumDisplay the % premium of 4 different Bitcoin Funds relative to the price of Bitcoin in your current chart.
BTCC ETF
QBTC Fund
GBTC Trust
VBTC ETN
This indicator uses the metrics from the fund management websites to calculate the "Net Asset Value per Unit (NAVPU)" to calculate the true underlying value of the fund.
The difference is then compared to the price of Bitcoin in the chart you have open.
Note that the metrics change and therefore the graph is not accurate for long past timeframes.
If TradingView would expand their script language in a way to ingest CSV data from the funds website then this could be improved.
You can update the metrics for each fund in the settings dialogue.
The script will autodetect the currency pairs of your current graph and only display compatible funds:
BTC / USD will show BTCC.U, QBTC.U and GBTC
BTC / CAD will show BTCC and QBTC
BTC / EUR will show VBTC
The script should not show in other currency pairs so it will not mess up other charts you might switch to.
If you find bugs with this logic, please comment below so I can fix them.
Due to TradingViews "no-links in description" policy, you need to google each funds website yourself to find the current metrics. These search terms should help:
BTCC search "Purpose Bitcoin ETF"
QBTC search "3iq The Bitcoin Fund (QBTC)"
GBTC search "Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust"
VBTC search "VanEck Vectors Bitcoin ETN"
Bitcoin Funds OverlayOverlay the Net Asset Value per Unit (NAVPU) of 4 different Bitcoin Funds on your Bitcoin chart.
BTCC ETF
QBTC Fund
GBTC Trust
VBTC ETN
This indicator uses the metrics from the fund management websites to calculate the "Net Asset Value per Unit (NAVPU)" to display the true underlying value of the fund.
Note that the metrics can change and therefore the graph is not accurate for long past timeframes.
You can update the metrics for each fund in the settings dialogue.
The script will autodetect the currency pairs of your current graph and only display compatible funds:
BTC / USD will show BTCC.U, QBTC.U and GBTC
BTC / CAD will show BTCC and QBTC
BTC / EUR will show VBTC
The script should not show in other currency pairs so it will not mess up other charts you might switch to.
If you find bugs with this logic, please comment below so I can fix them.
Due to TradingViews "no-links in description" policy, you need to google each funds website yourself to find the current metrics. These search terms should help:
BTCC search "Purpose Bitcoin ETF"
QBTC search "3iq The Bitcoin Fund (QBTC)"
GBTC search "Grayscale® Bitcoin Trust"
VBTC search "VanEck Vectors Bitcoin ETN"
Bitcoin Bulls and Bears by @dbtrBitcoin 🔥 Bulls & Bears 🔥
v1.0
This free-of-charge BTC market analysis indicator helps you better understand what's going with Bitcoin from a high-level perspective. At a glance, it will give you an immediate understanding of Bitcoin’s historic price channel dating back to 2011, past and current market cycles, as well as current key support levels.
Usage
Use this indicator with any BTCUSD pairs , ideally with a long price history (such as BNC:BLX )
We recommend to use this indicator in log mode, combined with Weekly or Monthly timeframe.
Features
🕵🏻♂️ Historic price channel curve since 2011
🚨 Bull & bear market cycles (dynamic)
🔥 All-time highs (dynamic)
🌟 Weekly support (dynamic, based on 20 SMA )
💪 Long-term support (channel bottom)
🔝 Potential future price targets (dynamic)
❎ Overbought RSI coloring
📏 Log/non-log support
🌚 Dark mode support
Remarks
With exception of the price channel curve, anything in this indicator is calculated dynamically , including bull/bear market cycles (based on a tweaked 20SMA), ATHs, and so on. As a result, historic market cycles may not be 100% accurately reflected and may also differ slightly in between various time-frames (closest result: Monthly). The indicator may even consider periods of heavy ups/downs as their own market cycles, even though they weren’t. Due to its dynamic nature, this indicator can however adapt to the future and helps you quickly identify potential changes in market structure, even if the indicator is no longer updated.
On top of that bullmarket cycles (colored in green) feature an ingrained RSI: the darker the green color, the more the RSI is overbought and close to a correction (darkest color in the chart = 90 Weekly RSI). In comparison with past bull cycles, it helps you easily spot potential reversal zones.
Thanks
Thanks to @quantadelic and @mabonyi which both have worked on the BTC "growth zones" indicator including the price channel, of which I have used parts of the code as well as the actual price channel data.
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Enjoy & happy trading!
Bitcoin Estimated Transaction FeeThis is the estimated fee you can expect to pay to have your bitcoin transaction confirm in 1 block. The estimation is derived from the daily total revenue miners received divided by the daily total number of transactions.
An option to change to a different currency is provided.
Notes on transaction fees:
Most exchanges do not provide an option to change the fee amount, and charge a static fee. A notable exception is Deribit.
The newer Bech32 wallet format, also known as native or SegWit, use a lower fee for the same transaction as legacy addresses. The addresses start with "bc1".
Mania was $60 USD to move bitcoin to an exchange you've only just heard of to buy a different coin with funny name :)
Bitcoin DAA OscillatorAn oscillator of Bitcoin's Daily Active Addresses (DAA) and fundamental metric of the utilization of the Bitcoin network.
Helps to identify:
Potential buy zones (green) - when the network utilization is low & increasing
Potential sell zones (red) - when the network utilization is high & decreasing
Bitcoin Logarithmic Curves OscillatorThis a companion indicator for the Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves indicator.
This is an oscillator version of the above. When the indicator is at / near 1 then Bitcoin price is at / near the upper range of its long-term logarithmic growth trend. When at / near 0 then price is at / near the lower range of that trend.
This indicator only works with the BLX Brave New Coin Index (ticker:BLX) and only on 1 day, 3 day, or 1 week timeframes.
Bitcoin Fibonacci Log RegressionThe "Zero Line" is the calculated logarithmic regression of Bitcoin over the last decade.
The rainbow above the Zero Line are the Fibonacci multiples from 0 --> 1 of the log regression (0.236, 0.382, etc.)
The rainbow below the Zero Line is identical, except that the multiples are negative (-0.236, -0.382, etc.)
For the first time ever, Bitcoin broke through the Zero Line (the natural regression) when it dumped on March 12-13. It looked at though the regression was invalidated when, in fact, it simply made an unprecedented move to a lower Fibonacci multiple.
Enjoy.
Bitcoin Stock to FlowModeling Bitcoin's Value With Scarcity
The Stock to Flow model for Bitcoin suggests that Bitcoin price is driven by scarcity over time.
Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen. It is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc. Bitcoin includes a mathematical mechanism to restrict its supply over time making it more rare as time goes on. Digital Scarcity.
In 2017 BTC exceeded the market capitalization of Silver. After the next halving in 2024, Bitcoin will become the hardest asset the world has ever seen, rarer than Gold.
There is only enough Bitcoin in the world for each person to own .0023 BTC. Because of this, Bitcoin's value should continue to rise over time.
Bitcoin Circulating Supply Overlay [BigBitsIO]This script shows the estimated circulating supply of Bitcoin on any given day.
Features:
- Estimated Bitcoin circulating supply calculated daily
- Uses the Bitcoin reward schedule, past halving dates, and the next upcoming halving estimated date to calculate the current estimated supply.
- Optionally includes an option to use "Log Reduction" on the chart
*** DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB. ***
Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon [aamonkey]This is another tool to find big cycle bottoms that is very unknown yet effective.
The Difficulty Ribbon speaks to the impact of miner selling pressure on Bitcoin`s price action.
When network difficulty reduces its rate of climb, miners are going out of business, leaving only the strong miners who proportionally need to sell less of their coins to remain operational, this leads to less sell pressure and more room for bullish price action.
The best times to buy Bitcoin are zones where the ribbon compresses.
The ribbon consists of simple moving averages of Bitcoin network difficulty so the rate of change of difficulty can be easily seen.
Bitcoin momentum correlation This is a pretty simple indicator, it measures the momentum of bitcoin as compared to usd,eur,eth,dash, and ltc, which you can see in all of the blue lines. If the red line is above zero then it means the overall value of btc is going up, opposite for down. The Ema_window controls how smooth the signal is. If you shorten the Ema_window parameter and open this on higher timeframe btc charts then the zero crossing gives pretty solid signals, despite being pretty choppy. A good way to interpret this is that if all the blue lines are moving in the same direction at once without disagreement, then the value of bitcoin has good momentum.
Mildly more technically:
Momentum is measured in the first derivative of an EMA for each ticker. To normalize the different values against each other they are all divided by their local maximums, which can be chosen in the parameter window, but shouldn't make a huge difference. All the checked values are then summed, as shown in the red line. To include a value into the red line simply keep it checked. Take a look at the script, it's kind of easy on the eyes.
It's pretty handy to look at, but doesn't seem too worthwhile to pursue much further. If someone wants much more out of the script then feel free to message me.
Remember rules #1 & #2
Don't lose money.
Happy trading
Bitcoin vs. Gold correlation with lagBTC vs Gold (Lag) + Correlation — multi-timeframe, publication notes
What it does
Plots Gold on the same chart as Bitcoin, with a configurable lead/lag.
Lets you choose how the series is displayed:
Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart) — shows gold ahead of BTC on the time axis (visual offset).
Gold aligned to BTC (gold lag) — standard alignment; gold is lagged for calculation and plotted in place.
BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward) — visualizes BTC shifted forward (like popular “BTC 200D Lag” charts).
Computes Pearson correlations between BTC (no lag) and Gold (with lag) over multiple lookback windows equivalent to:
30d, 60d, 90d, 180d, 365d, 2y (730d), 3y (1095d), 5y (1825d).
Shows a table with the correlation values, automatically scaled to the current timeframe.
Why this is useful
A common macro claim is that BTC tends to follow Gold with a delay (e.g., ~200 trading days). This tool lets you:
Visually advance Gold (or BTC) to see that lead-lag relationship on the chart.
Quantify the relationship with rolling correlations.
Switch timeframes (D/W/M/…): everything automatically stays in sync.
Quick start
Open a BTC chart (any exchange).
Add the indicator.
Set Gold symbol (default TVC:GOLD; alternatives: OANDA:XAUUSD, COMEX:GC1!, etc.).
Choose Lag value and Lag unit (Days/Weeks/Months/Years/Bars).
Pick Visual Mode:
To mirror those “BTC 200D Lag” posts: choose “BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward)” with 200 Days.
To view Gold 200D ahead of BTC: select “Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart)” with 200 Days.
Keep Rebase to 100 ON for an apples-to-apples visual scale. (You can move the study to the left price scale if needed.)
Inputs
Gold symbol: external series to pair with BTC.
Lag value: numeric value.
Lag unit: Days, Weeks, Months (≈30d), Years (≈365d), or direct Bars.
Visual mode:
Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart) → gold is offset to the right by the lag (visual only).
Gold aligned to BTC (gold lag) → standard plot (no visual offset); correlations still use lagged gold.
BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward) → BTC is offset to the right by the lag (visual only).
Rebase to 100 (visual): rescales each series to 100 on its first valid bar for clearer comparison.
Show gold without lag (debug): optional reference line.
Show price tag for gold (lag): toggles the track price label.
Timeframe handling
The study uses the current chart timeframe for both BTC and Gold (timeframe.period).
Lag in time units (Days/Weeks/Months/Years) is internally converted to an integer number of bars of the active timeframe (using timeframe.in_seconds).
Example: on W (weekly), 200 days ≈ 29 bars.
On intraday timeframes, days are converted proportionally.
Correlation math
Correlation = ta.correlation(BTC, Gold_lagged, length_in_bars)
Lookback lengths are the bar-equivalents of 30/60/90/180/365/730/1095/1825 days in the active timeframe.
Important: correlations are computed on prices (not returns). If you prefer returns-based correlation (often more statistically robust), duplicate the script and replace price inputs with change(close) or ta.roc(close, 1).
Reading the table
Window: nominal day label (e.g., 30d, 1y, 5y).
Bars (TF): how many bars that window equals on the current timeframe.
Correlation: Pearson coefficient . Background tint shows intensity and sign.
Tips & caveats
Visual offsets (offset=) move series on screen only; they don’t affect the math. The math always uses BTC (no lag) × Gold (lagged).
With large lags on high timeframes, early bars will be na (normal). Scroll forward / reduce lag.
If your Gold feed doesn’t load, try an alternative symbol that your plan supports.
Rebase to 100 helps visibility when BTC ($100k) and Gold ($2k) share a scale.
Months/Years use 30/365-day approximations. For exact control, use Days or Bars.
Correlations on very short lengths or sparse data can be unstable; consider the longer windows for sturdier signals.
This is a visual/analytical tool, not a trading signal. Always apply independent risk management.
Suggested setups
Replicate “BTC 200D Lag” charts:
Visual Mode: BTC 200D Lag (BTC shifted forward)
Lag: 200 Days
Rebase: ON
Gold leads BTC (Gold ahead):
Visual Mode: Gold shifted forward (+lag on chart)
Lag: 200 Days
Rebase: ON
Compatibility: Pine v6, overlay study.
Best with: BTCUSD (any exchange) + a reliable Gold feed.
Author’s note: Lead-lag relationships are not stable over time; treat correlations as descriptive, not predictive.
Bitcoin Futures vs. Spot Tri-Frame - Strategy [presentTrading]Prove idea with a backtest is always true for trading.
I developed and open-sourced it as an educational material for crypto traders to understand that the futures and spot spread may be effective but not be as effective as they might think. It serves as an indicator of sentiment rather than a reliable predictor of market trends over certain periods. It is better suited for specific trading environments, which require further research.
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Bitcoin Futures vs. Spot Tri-Frame Strategy" utilizes three different timeframes to calculate the Z-Score of the spread between BTC futures and spot prices on Binance and OKX exchanges. The strategy executes long or short trades based on composite Z-Score conditions across the three timeframes.
The spread refers to the difference in price between BTC futures and BTC spot prices, calculated by taking a weighted average of futures prices from multiple exchanges (Binance and OKX) and subtracting a weighted average of spot prices from the same exchanges.
BTCUSD 1D L/S Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Calculation of the Spread
The spread is the difference in price between BTC futures and BTC spot prices. The strategy calculates the spread by taking a weighted average of futures prices from multiple exchanges (Binance and OKX) and subtracting a weighted average of spot prices from the same exchanges. This spread serves as the primary metric for identifying trading opportunities.
Spread = Weighted Average Futures Price - Weighted Average Spot Price
🔶 Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score measures how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical mean. This is calculated for each timeframe as follows:
Spread Mean_tf = SMA(Spread_tf, longTermSMA)
Spread StdDev_tf = STDEV(Spread_tf, longTermSMA)
Z-Score_tf = (Spread_tf - Spread Mean_tf) / Spread StdDev_tf
Local performance
🔶 Composite Entry Conditions
The strategy triggers long and short entries based on composite Z-Score conditions across all three timeframes:
- Long Condition: All three Z-Scores must be greater than the long entry threshold.
Long Condition = (Z-Score_tf1 > zScoreLongEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf2 > zScoreLongEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf3 > zScoreLongEntryThreshold)
- Short Condition: All three Z-Scores must be less than the short entry threshold.
Short Condition = (Z-Score_tf1 < zScoreShortEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf2 < zScoreShortEntryThreshold) and (Z-Score_tf3 < zScoreShortEntryThreshold)
█ Trade Direction
The strategy allows the user to specify the trading direction:
- Long: Only long trades are executed.
- Short: Only short trades are executed.
- Both: Both long and short trades are executed based on the Z-Score conditions.
█ Usage
The strategy can be applied to BTC or Crypto trading on major exchanges like Binance and OKX. By leveraging discrepancies between futures and spot prices, traders can exploit market inefficiencies. This strategy is suitable for traders who prefer a statistical approach and want to diversify their timeframes to validate signals.
█ Default Settings
- Input TF 1 (60 minutes): Sets the first timeframe for Z-Score calculation.
- Input TF 2 (120 minutes): Sets the second timeframe for Z-Score calculation.
- Input TF 3 (180 minutes): Sets the third timeframe for Z-Score calculation.
- Long Entry Z-Score Threshold (3): Defines the threshold above which a long trade is triggered.
- Short Entry Z-Score Threshold (-3): Defines the threshold below which a short trade is triggered.
- Long-Term SMA Period (100): The period used to calculate the simple moving average for the spread.
- Use Hold Days (true): Enables holding trades for a specified number of days.
- Hold Days (5): Number of days to hold the trade before exiting.
- TPSL Condition (None): Defines the conditions for taking profit and stop loss.
- Take Profit (%) (30.0): The percentage at which the trade will take profit.
- Stop Loss (%) (20.0): The percentage at which the trade will stop loss.
By fine-tuning these settings, traders can optimize the strategy to suit their risk tolerance and trading style, enhancing overall performance.
