Enhanced Instantaneous Cycle Period - Dr. John EhlersThis is my first public release of detector code entitled "Enhanced Instantaneous Cycle Period" for PSv4.0 I built many months ago. Be forewarned, this is not an indicator, this is a detector to be used by ADVANCED developers to build futuristic indicators in Pine. The origins of this script come from a document by Dr. John Ehlers entitled "SIGNAL ANALYSIS CONCEPTS". You may find this using the NSA's reverse search engine "goggles", as I call it. John Ehlers' MESA used this measurement to establish the data window for analysis for MESA Cycle computations. So... does any developer wish to emulate MESA Cycle now??
I decided to take instantaneous cycle period to another level of novel attainability in this public release of source code with the following methods, if you are curious how I ENHANCED it. Firstly I reduced the delay of accurate measurement from bar_index==0 by quite a few bars closer to IPO. Secondarily, I provided a limit of 6 for a minimum instantaneous cycle period. At bar_index==0, it would provide a period of 0 wrecking many algorithms from the start. I also increased the instantaneous cycle period's maximum value to 80 from 50, providing a window of 6-80 for the instantaneous cycle period value window limits. Thirdly, I replaced the internal EMA with another algorithm. It reduces the lag while extracting a floating point number, for algorithms that will accept that, compared to a sluggish ordinary EMA return. You will see the excessive EMA delay with adding plot(ema(ICP,7)) as it was originally designed. Lastly it's in one simple function for reusability in a nice little package comprising of less than 40 lines of code. I hope I explained that adequately enough and gave you the reader a glimpse of the "Power of Pine" combined with ingenuity.
Be forewarned again, that most of Pine's built-in functions will not accept a floating-point number or dynamic integers for the "length" of it's calculation. You will have to emulate the built-in functions by creating Pine based custom functions, and I assure you, this is very possible in many cases, but not all without array support. You may use int(ICP) to extract an integer from the smoothICP return variable, which may be favorable compared to the choppiness/ringing if ICP alone.
This is commonly what my dense intricate code looks like behind the veil. If you are wondering why there is barely any notation, that's because the notation is in the variable naming and this is intended primarily for ADVANCED developers too. It does contain lines of code that explore techniques in Pine that may be applicable in other Pine projects for those learning or wishing to excel with Pine.
Showcased in the chart below is my free to use "Enhanced Schaff Trend Cycle Indicator", having a common appeal to TV users frequently. If you do have any questions or comments regarding this indicator, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and ideas presented below in the comments section, when time provides it. As always, "Like" it if you simply just like it with a proper thumbs up, and also return to my scripts list occasionally for additional postings. Have a profitable future everyone!
NOTICE: Copy pasting bandits who may be having nefarious thoughts, DO NOT attempt this, because this may violate Tradingview's terms, conditions and/or house rules. "WE" are always watching the TV community vigilantly for mischievous behaviors and actions that exploit well intended authors for the purpose of increasing brownie points in reputation scores. Hiding behind a "protected" wall may not protect you from investigation and account penalization by TV staff. Be respectful, and don't just throw an ma() in there branding it as "your" gizmo. Fair enough? Alrighty then... I firmly believe in "innovating" future state-of-the-art indicators, and please contact me if you wish to do so.
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ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.00ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action
1. Introduction
1.1 Overview
ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action is a composite indicator designed for TradingView. It combines per‑side volume data —that is, how much buying and selling occurs during each bar—with standard price‑structure elements such as swings, trend lines and support/resistance. By blending these elements the script aims to help a trader understand which side is in control, whether a breakout is genuine, when markets are potentially exhausted and where liquidity providers might be active.
The indicator is built around TradingView’s up/down volume feed accessed via the TradingView/ta/10 library. The following excerpt from the script illustrates how this feed is configured:
import TradingView/ta/10 as tvta
// Determine lower timeframe string based on user choice and chart resolution
string lower_tf_breakout = use_custom_tf_input ? custom_tf_input :
timeframe.isseconds ? "1S" :
timeframe.isintraday ? "1" :
timeframe.isdaily ? "5" : "60"
// Request up/down volume (both positive)
= tvta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lower_tf_breakout)
Lower‑timeframe selection. If you do not specify a custom lower timeframe, the script chooses a default based on your chart resolution: 1 second for second charts, 1 minute for intraday charts, 5 minutes for daily charts and 60 minutes for anything longer. Smaller intervals provide a more precise view of buyer and seller flow but cover fewer bars. Larger intervals cover more history at the cost of granularity.
Tick vs. time bars. Many trading platforms offer a tick / intrabar calculation mode that updates an indicator on every trade rather than only on bar close. Turning on one‑tick calculation will give the most accurate split between buy and sell volume on the current bar, but it typically reduces the amount of historical data available. For the highest fidelity in live trading you can enable this mode; for studying longer histories you might prefer to disable it. When volume data is completely unavailable (some instruments and crypto pairs), all modules that rely on it will remain silent and only the price‑structure backbone will operate.
Figure caption, Each panel shows the indicator’s info table for a different volume sampling interval. In the left chart, the parentheses “(5)” beside the buy‑volume figure denote that the script is aggregating volume over five‑minute bars; the center chart uses “(1)” for one‑minute bars; and the right chart uses “(1T)” for a one‑tick interval. These notations tell you which lower timeframe is driving the volume calculations. Shorter intervals such as 1 minute or 1 tick provide finer detail on buyer and seller flow, but they cover fewer bars; longer intervals like five‑minute bars smooth the data and give more history.
Figure caption, The values in parentheses inside the info table come directly from the Breakout — Settings. The first row shows the custom lower-timeframe used for volume calculations (e.g., “(1)”, “(5)”, or “(1T)”)
2. Price‑Structure Backbone
Even without volume, the indicator draws structural features that underpin all other modules. These features are always on and serve as the reference levels for subsequent calculations.
2.1 What it draws
• Pivots: Swing highs and lows are detected using the pivot_left_input and pivot_right_input settings. A pivot high is identified when the high recorded pivot_right_input bars ago exceeds the highs of the preceding pivot_left_input bars and is also higher than (or equal to) the highs of the subsequent pivot_right_input bars; pivot lows follow the inverse logic. The indicator retains only a fixed number of such pivot points per side, as defined by point_count_input, discarding the oldest ones when the limit is exceeded.
• Trend lines: For each side, the indicator connects the earliest stored pivot and the most recent pivot (oldest high to newest high, and oldest low to newest low). When a new pivot is added or an old one drops out of the lookback window, the line’s endpoints—and therefore its slope—are recalculated accordingly.
• Horizontal support/resistance: The highest high and lowest low within the lookback window defined by length_input are plotted as horizontal dashed lines. These serve as short‑term support and resistance levels.
• Ranked labels: If showPivotLabels is enabled the indicator prints labels such as “HH1”, “HH2”, “LL1” and “LL2” near each pivot. The ranking is determined by comparing the price of each stored pivot: HH1 is the highest high, HH2 is the second highest, and so on; LL1 is the lowest low, LL2 is the second lowest. In the case of equal prices the newer pivot gets the better rank. Labels are offset from price using ½ × ATR × label_atr_multiplier, with the ATR length defined by label_atr_len_input. A dotted connector links each label to the candle’s wick.
2.2 Key settings
• length_input: Window length for finding the highest and lowest values and for determining trend line endpoints. A larger value considers more history and will generate longer trend lines and S/R levels.
• pivot_left_input, pivot_right_input: Strictness of swing confirmation. Higher values require more bars on either side to form a pivot; lower values create more pivots but may include minor swings.
• point_count_input: How many pivots are kept in memory on each side. When new pivots exceed this number the oldest ones are discarded.
• label_atr_len_input and label_atr_multiplier: Determine how far pivot labels are offset from the bar using ATR. Increasing the multiplier moves labels further away from price.
• Styling inputs for trend lines, horizontal lines and labels (color, width and line style).
Figure caption, The chart illustrates how the indicator’s price‑structure backbone operates. In this daily example, the script scans for bars where the high (or low) pivot_right_input bars back is higher (or lower) than the preceding pivot_left_input bars and higher or lower than the subsequent pivot_right_input bars; only those bars are marked as pivots.
These pivot points are stored and ranked: the highest high is labelled “HH1”, the second‑highest “HH2”, and so on, while lows are marked “LL1”, “LL2”, etc. Each label is offset from the price by half of an ATR‑based distance to keep the chart clear, and a dotted connector links the label to the actual candle.
The red diagonal line connects the earliest and latest stored high pivots, and the green line does the same for low pivots; when a new pivot is added or an old one drops out of the lookback window, the end‑points and slopes adjust accordingly. Dashed horizontal lines mark the highest high and lowest low within the current lookback window, providing visual support and resistance levels. Together, these elements form the structural backbone that other modules reference, even when volume data is unavailable.
3. Breakout Module
3.1 Concept
This module confirms that a price break beyond a recent high or low is supported by a genuine shift in buying or selling pressure. It requires price to clear the highest high (“HH1”) or lowest low (“LL1”) and, simultaneously, that the winning side shows a significant volume spike, dominance and ranking. Only when all volume and price conditions pass is a breakout labelled.
3.2 Inputs
• lookback_break_input : This controls the number of bars used to compute moving averages and percentiles for volume. A larger value smooths the averages and percentiles but makes the indicator respond more slowly.
• vol_mult_input : The “spike” multiplier; the current buy or sell volume must be at least this multiple of its moving average over the lookback window to qualify as a breakout.
• rank_threshold_input (0–100) : Defines a volume percentile cutoff: the current buyer/seller volume must be in the top (100−threshold)%(100−threshold)% of all volumes within the lookback window. For example, if set to 80, the current volume must be in the top 20 % of the lookback distribution.
• ratio_threshold_input (0–1) : Specifies the minimum share of total volume that the buyer (for a bullish breakout) or seller (for bearish) must hold on the current bar; the code also requires that the cumulative buyer volume over the lookback window exceeds the seller volume (and vice versa for bearish cases).
• use_custom_tf_input / custom_tf_input : When enabled, these inputs override the automatic choice of lower timeframe for up/down volume; otherwise the script selects a sensible default based on the chart’s timeframe.
• Label appearance settings : Separate options control the ATR-based offset length, offset multiplier, label size and colors for bullish and bearish breakout labels, as well as the connector style and width.
3.3 Detection logic
1. Data preparation : Retrieve per‑side volume from the lower timeframe and take absolute values. Build rolling arrays of the last lookback_break_input values to compute simple moving averages (SMAs), cumulative sums and percentile ranks for buy and sell volume.
2. Volume spike: A spike is flagged when the current buy (or, in the bearish case, sell) volume is at least vol_mult_input times its SMA over the lookback window.
3. Dominance test: The buyer’s (or seller’s) share of total volume on the current bar must meet or exceed ratio_threshold_input. In addition, the cumulative sum of buyer volume over the window must exceed the cumulative sum of seller volume for a bullish breakout (and vice versa for bearish). A separate requirement checks the sign of delta: for bullish breakouts delta_breakout must be non‑negative; for bearish breakouts it must be non‑positive.
4. Percentile rank: The current volume must fall within the top (100 – rank_threshold_input) percent of the lookback distribution—ensuring that the spike is unusually large relative to recent history.
5. Price test: For a bullish signal, the closing price must close above the highest pivot (HH1); for a bearish signal, the close must be below the lowest pivot (LL1).
6. Labeling: When all conditions above are satisfied, the indicator prints “Breakout ↑” above the bar (bullish) or “Breakout ↓” below the bar (bearish). Labels are offset using half of an ATR‑based distance and linked to the candle with a dotted connector.
Figure caption, (Breakout ↑ example) , On this daily chart, price pushes above the red trendline and the highest prior pivot (HH1). The indicator recognizes this as a valid breakout because the buyer‑side volume on the lower timeframe spikes above its recent moving average and buyers dominate the volume statistics over the lookback period; when combined with a close above HH1, this satisfies the breakout conditions. The “Breakout ↑” label appears above the candle, and the info table highlights that up‑volume is elevated relative to its 11‑bar average, buyer share exceeds the dominance threshold and money‑flow metrics support the move.
Figure caption, In this daily example, price breaks below the lowest pivot (LL1) and the lower green trendline. The indicator identifies this as a bearish breakout because sell‑side volume is sharply elevated—about twice its 11‑bar average—and sellers dominate both the bar and the lookback window. With the close falling below LL1, the script triggers a Breakout ↓ label and marks the corresponding row in the info table, which shows strong down volume, negative delta and a seller share comfortably above the dominance threshold.
4. Market Phase Module (Volume Only)
4.1 Concept
Not all markets trend; many cycle between periods of accumulation (buying pressure building up), distribution (selling pressure dominating) and neutral behavior. This module classifies the current bar into one of these phases without using ATR , relying solely on buyer and seller volume statistics. It looks at net flows, ratio changes and an OBV‑like cumulative line with dual‑reference (1‑ and 2‑bar) trends. The result is displayed both as on‑chart labels and in a dedicated row of the info table.
4.2 Inputs
• phase_period_len: Number of bars over which to compute sums and ratios for phase detection.
• phase_ratio_thresh : Minimum buyer share (for accumulation) or minimum seller share (for distribution, derived as 1 − phase_ratio_thresh) of the total volume.
• strict_mode: When enabled, both the 1‑bar and 2‑bar changes in each statistic must agree on the direction (strict confirmation); when disabled, only one of the two references needs to agree (looser confirmation).
• Color customisation for info table cells and label styling for accumulation and distribution phases, including ATR length, multiplier, label size, colors and connector styles.
• show_phase_module: Toggles the entire phase detection subsystem.
• show_phase_labels: Controls whether on‑chart labels are drawn when accumulation or distribution is detected.
4.3 Detection logic
The module computes three families of statistics over the volume window defined by phase_period_len:
1. Net sum (buyers minus sellers): net_sum_phase = Σ(buy) − Σ(sell). A positive value indicates a predominance of buyers. The code also computes the differences between the current value and the values 1 and 2 bars ago (d_net_1, d_net_2) to derive up/down trends.
2. Buyer ratio: The instantaneous ratio TF_buy_breakout / TF_tot_breakout and the window ratio Σ(buy) / Σ(total). The current ratio must exceed phase_ratio_thresh for accumulation or fall below 1 − phase_ratio_thresh for distribution. The first and second differences of the window ratio (d_ratio_1, d_ratio_2) determine trend direction.
3. OBV‑like cumulative net flow: An on‑balance volume analogue obv_net_phase increments by TF_buy_breakout − TF_sell_breakout each bar. Its differences over the last 1 and 2 bars (d_obv_1, d_obv_2) provide trend clues.
The algorithm then combines these signals:
• For strict mode , accumulation requires: (a) current ratio ≥ threshold, (b) cumulative ratio ≥ threshold, (c) both ratio differences ≥ 0, (d) net sum differences ≥ 0, and (e) OBV differences ≥ 0. Distribution is the mirror case.
• For loose mode , it relaxes the directional tests: either the 1‑ or the 2‑bar difference needs to agree in each category.
If all conditions for accumulation are satisfied, the phase is labelled “Accumulation” ; if all conditions for distribution are satisfied, it’s labelled “Distribution” ; otherwise the phase is “Neutral” .
4.4 Outputs
• Info table row : Row 8 displays “Market Phase (Vol)” on the left and the detected phase (Accumulation, Distribution or Neutral) on the right. The text colour of both cells matches a user‑selectable palette (typically green for accumulation, red for distribution and grey for neutral).
• On‑chart labels : When show_phase_labels is enabled and a phase persists for at least one bar, the module prints a label above the bar ( “Accum” ) or below the bar ( “Dist” ) with a dashed or dotted connector. The label is offset using ATR based on phase_label_atr_len_input and phase_label_multiplier and is styled according to user preferences.
Figure caption, The chart displays a red “Dist” label above a particular bar, indicating that the accumulation/distribution module identified a distribution phase at that point. The detection is based on seller dominance: during that bar, the net buyer-minus-seller flow and the OBV‑style cumulative flow were trending down, and the buyer ratio had dropped below the preset threshold. These conditions satisfy the distribution criteria in strict mode. The label is placed above the bar using an ATR‑based offset and a dashed connector. By the time of the current bar in the screenshot, the phase indicator shows “Neutral” in the info table—signaling that neither accumulation nor distribution conditions are currently met—yet the historical “Dist” label remains to mark where the prior distribution phase began.
Figure caption, In this example the market phase module has signaled an Accumulation phase. Three bars before the current candle, the algorithm detected a shift toward buyers: up‑volume exceeded its moving average, down‑volume was below average, and the buyer share of total volume climbed above the threshold while the on‑balance net flow and cumulative ratios were trending upwards. The blue “Accum” label anchored below that bar marks the start of the phase; it remains on the chart because successive bars continue to satisfy the accumulation conditions. The info table confirms this: the “Market Phase (Vol)” row still reads Accumulation, and the ratio and sum rows show buyers dominating both on the current bar and across the lookback window.
5. OB/OS Spike Module
5.1 What overbought/oversold means here
In many markets, a rapid extension up or down is often followed by a period of consolidation or reversal. The indicator interprets overbought (OB) conditions as abnormally strong selling risk at or after a price rally and oversold (OS) conditions as unusually strong buying risk after a decline. Importantly, these are not direct trade signals; rather they flag areas where caution or contrarian setups may be appropriate.
5.2 Inputs
• minHits_obos (1–7): Minimum number of oscillators that must agree on an overbought or oversold condition for a label to print.
• syncWin_obos: Length of a small sliding window over which oscillator votes are smoothed by taking the maximum count observed. This helps filter out choppy signals.
• Volume spike criteria: kVolRatio_obos (ratio of current volume to its SMA) and zVolThr_obos (Z‑score threshold) across volLen_obos. Either threshold can trigger a spike.
• Oscillator toggles and periods: Each of RSI, Stochastic (K and D), Williams %R, CCI, MFI, DeMarker and Stochastic RSI can be independently enabled; their periods are adjustable.
• Label appearance: ATR‑based offset, size, colors for OB and OS labels, plus connector style and width.
5.3 Detection logic
1. Directional volume spikes: Volume spikes are computed separately for buyer and seller volumes. A sell volume spike (sellVolSpike) flags a potential OverBought bar, while a buy volume spike (buyVolSpike) flags a potential OverSold bar. A spike occurs when the respective volume exceeds kVolRatio_obos times its simple moving average over the window or when its Z‑score exceeds zVolThr_obos.
2. Oscillator votes: For each enabled oscillator, calculate its overbought and oversold state using standard thresholds (e.g., RSI ≥ 70 for OB and ≤ 30 for OS; Stochastic %K/%D ≥ 80 for OB and ≤ 20 for OS; etc.). Count how many oscillators vote for OB and how many vote for OS.
3. Minimum hits: Apply the smoothing window syncWin_obos to the vote counts using a maximum‑of‑last‑N approach. A candidate bar is only considered if the smoothed OB hit count ≥ minHits_obos (for OverBought) or the smoothed OS hit count ≥ minHits_obos (for OverSold).
4. Tie‑breaking: If both OverBought and OverSold spike conditions are present on the same bar, compare the smoothed hit counts: the side with the higher count is selected; ties default to OverBought.
5. Label printing: When conditions are met, the bar is labelled as “OverBought X/7” above the candle or “OverSold X/7” below it. “X” is the number of oscillators confirming, and the bracket lists the abbreviations of contributing oscillators. Labels are offset from price using half of an ATR‑scaled distance and can optionally include a dotted or dashed connector line.
Figure caption, In this chart the overbought/oversold module has flagged an OverSold signal. A sell‑off from the prior highs brought price down to the lower trend‑line, where the bar marked “OverSold 3/7 DeM” appears. This label indicates that on that bar the module detected a buy‑side volume spike and that at least three of the seven enabled oscillators—in this case including the DeMarker—were in oversold territory. The label is printed below the candle with a dotted connector, signaling that the market may be temporarily exhausted on the downside. After this oversold print, price begins to rebound towards the upper red trend‑line and higher pivot levels.
Figure caption, This example shows the overbought/oversold module in action. In the left‑hand panel you can see the OB/OS settings where each oscillator (RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R, CCI, MFI, DeMarker and Stochastic RSI) can be enabled or disabled, and the ATR length and label offset multiplier adjusted. On the chart itself, price has pushed up to the descending red trendline and triggered an “OverBought 3/7” label. That means the sell‑side volume spiked relative to its average and three out of the seven enabled oscillators were in overbought territory. The label is offset above the candle by half of an ATR and connected with a dashed line, signaling that upside momentum may be overextended and a pause or pullback could follow.
6. Buyer/Seller Trap Module
6.1 Concept
A bull trap occurs when price appears to break above resistance, attracting buyers, but fails to sustain the move and quickly reverses, leaving a long upper wick and trapping late entrants. A bear trap is the opposite: price breaks below support, lures in sellers, then snaps back, leaving a long lower wick and trapping shorts. This module detects such traps by looking for price structure sweeps, order‑flow mismatches and dominance reversals. It uses a scoring system to differentiate risk from confirmed traps.
6.2 Inputs
• trap_lookback_len: Window length used to rank extremes and detect sweeps.
• trap_wick_threshold: Minimum proportion of a bar’s range that must be wick (upper for bull traps, lower for bear traps) to qualify as a sweep.
• trap_score_risk: Minimum aggregated score required to flag a trap risk. (The code defines a trap_score_confirm input, but confirmation is actually based on price reversal rather than a separate score threshold.)
• trap_confirm_bars: Maximum number of bars allowed for price to reverse and confirm the trap. If price does not reverse in this window, the risk label will expire or remain unconfirmed.
• Label settings: ATR length and multiplier for offsetting, size, colours for risk and confirmed labels, and connector style and width. Separate settings exist for bull and bear traps.
• Toggle inputs: show_trap_module and show_trap_labels enable the module and control whether labels are drawn on the chart.
6.3 Scoring logic
The module assigns points to several conditions and sums them to determine whether a trap risk is present. For bull traps, the score is built from the following (bear traps mirror the logic with highs and lows swapped):
1. Sweep (2 points): Price trades above the high pivot (HH1) but fails to close above it and leaves a long upper wick at least trap_wick_threshold × range. For bear traps, price dips below the low pivot (LL1), fails to close below and leaves a long lower wick.
2. Close break (1 point): Price closes beyond HH1 or LL1 without leaving a long wick.
3. Candle/delta mismatch (2 points): The candle closes bullish yet the order flow delta is negative or the seller ratio exceeds 50%, indicating hidden supply. Conversely, a bearish close with positive delta or buyer dominance suggests hidden demand.
4. Dominance inversion (2 points): The current bar’s buyer volume has the highest rank in the lookback window while cumulative sums favor sellers, or vice versa.
5. Low‑volume break (1 point): Price crosses the pivot but total volume is below its moving average.
The total score for each side is compared to trap_score_risk. If the score is high enough, a “Bull Trap Risk” or “Bear Trap Risk” label is drawn, offset from the candle by half of an ATR‑scaled distance using a dashed outline. If, within trap_confirm_bars, price reverses beyond the opposite level—drops back below the high pivot for bull traps or rises above the low pivot for bear traps—the label is upgraded to a solid “Bull Trap” or “Bear Trap” . In this version of the code, there is no separate score threshold for confirmation: the variable trap_score_confirm is unused; confirmation depends solely on a successful price reversal within the specified number of bars.
Figure caption, In this example the trap module has flagged a Bear Trap Risk. Price initially breaks below the most recent low pivot (LL1), but the bar closes back above that level and leaves a long lower wick, suggesting a failed push lower. Combined with a mismatch between the candle direction and the order flow (buyers regain control) and a reversal in volume dominance, the aggregate score exceeds the risk threshold, so a dashed “Bear Trap Risk” label prints beneath the bar. The green and red trend lines mark the current low and high pivot trajectories, while the horizontal dashed lines show the highest and lowest values in the lookback window. If, within the next few bars, price closes decisively above the support, the risk label would upgrade to a solid “Bear Trap” label.
Figure caption, In this example the trap module has identified both ends of a price range. Near the highs, price briefly pushes above the descending red trendline and the recent pivot high, but fails to close there and leaves a noticeable upper wick. That combination of a sweep above resistance and order‑flow mismatch generates a Bull Trap Risk label with a dashed outline, warning that the upside break may not hold. At the opposite extreme, price later dips below the green trendline and the labelled low pivot, then quickly snaps back and closes higher. The long lower wick and subsequent price reversal upgrade the previous bear‑trap risk into a confirmed Bear Trap (solid label), indicating that sellers were caught on a false breakdown. Horizontal dashed lines mark the highest high and lowest low of the lookback window, while the red and green diagonals connect the earliest and latest pivot highs and lows to visualize the range.
7. Sharp Move Module
7.1 Concept
Markets sometimes display absorption or climax behavior—periods when one side steadily gains the upper hand before price breaks out with a sharp move. This module evaluates several order‑flow and volume conditions to anticipate such moves. Users can choose how many conditions must be met to flag a risk and how many (plus a price break) are required for confirmation.
7.2 Inputs
• sharp Lookback: Number of bars in the window used to compute moving averages, sums, percentile ranks and reference levels.
• sharpPercentile: Minimum percentile rank for the current side’s volume; the current buy (or sell) volume must be greater than or equal to this percentile of historical volumes over the lookback window.
• sharpVolMult: Multiplier used in the volume climax check. The current side’s volume must exceed this multiple of its average to count as a climax.
• sharpRatioThr: Minimum dominance ratio (current side’s volume relative to the opposite side) used in both the instant and cumulative dominance checks.
• sharpChurnThr: Maximum ratio of a bar’s range to its ATR for absorption/churn detection; lower values indicate more absorption (large volume in a small range).
• sharpScoreRisk: Minimum number of conditions that must be true to print a risk label.
• sharpScoreConfirm: Minimum number of conditions plus a price break required for confirmation.
• sharpCvdThr: Threshold for cumulative delta divergence versus price change (positive for bullish accumulation, negative for bearish distribution).
• Label settings: ATR length (sharpATRlen) and multiplier (sharpLabelMult) for positioning labels, label size, colors and connector styles for bullish and bearish sharp moves.
• Toggles: enableSharp activates the module; show_sharp_labels controls whether labels are drawn.
7.3 Conditions (six per side)
For each side, the indicator computes six boolean conditions and sums them to form a score:
1. Dominance (instant and cumulative):
– Instant dominance: current buy volume ≥ sharpRatioThr × current sell volume.
– Cumulative dominance: sum of buy volumes over the window ≥ sharpRatioThr × sum of sell volumes (and vice versa for bearish checks).
2. Accumulation/Distribution divergence: Over the lookback window, cumulative delta rises by at least sharpCvdThr while price fails to rise (bullish), or cumulative delta falls by at least sharpCvdThr while price fails to fall (bearish).
3. Volume climax: The current side’s volume is ≥ sharpVolMult × its average and the product of volume and bar range is the highest in the lookback window.
4. Absorption/Churn: The current side’s volume divided by the bar’s range equals the highest value in the window and the bar’s range divided by ATR ≤ sharpChurnThr (indicating large volume within a small range).
5. Percentile rank: The current side’s volume percentile rank is ≥ sharp Percentile.
6. Mirror logic for sellers: The above checks are repeated with buyer and seller roles swapped and the price break levels reversed.
Each condition that passes contributes one point to the corresponding side’s score (0 or 1). Risk and confirmation thresholds are then applied to these scores.
7.4 Scoring and labels
• Risk: If scoreBull ≥ sharpScoreRisk, a “Sharp ↑ Risk” label is drawn above the bar. If scoreBear ≥ sharpScoreRisk, a “Sharp ↓ Risk” label is drawn below the bar.
• Confirmation: A risk label is upgraded to “Sharp ↑” when scoreBull ≥ sharpScoreConfirm and the bar closes above the highest recent pivot (HH1); for bearish cases, confirmation requires scoreBear ≥ sharpScoreConfirm and a close below the lowest pivot (LL1).
• Label positioning: Labels are offset from the candle by ATR × sharpLabelMult (full ATR times multiplier), not half, and may include a dashed or dotted connector line if enabled.
Figure caption, In this chart both bullish and bearish sharp‑move setups have been flagged. Earlier in the range, a “Sharp ↓ Risk” label appears beneath a candle: the sell‑side score met the risk threshold, signaling that the combination of strong sell volume, dominance and absorption within a narrow range suggested a potential sharp decline. The price did not close below the lower pivot, so this label remains a “risk” and no confirmation occurred. Later, as the market recovered and volume shifted back to the buy side, a “Sharp ↑ Risk” label prints above a candle near the top of the channel. Here, buy‑side dominance, cumulative delta divergence and a volume climax aligned, but price has not yet closed above the upper pivot (HH1), so the alert is still a risk rather than a confirmed sharp‑up move.
Figure caption, In this chart a Sharp ↑ label is displayed above a candle, indicating that the sharp move module has confirmed a bullish breakout. Prior bars satisfied the risk threshold — showing buy‑side dominance, positive cumulative delta divergence, a volume climax and strong absorption in a narrow range — and this candle closes above the highest recent pivot, upgrading the earlier “Sharp ↑ Risk” alert to a full Sharp ↑ signal. The green label is offset from the candle with a dashed connector, while the red and green trend lines trace the high and low pivot trajectories and the dashed horizontals mark the highest and lowest values of the lookback window.
8. Market‑Maker / Spread‑Capture Module
8.1 Concept
Liquidity providers often “capture the spread” by buying and selling in almost equal amounts within a very narrow price range. These bars can signal temporary congestion before a move or reflect algorithmic activity. This module flags bars where both buyer and seller volumes are high, the price range is only a few ticks and the buy/sell split remains close to 50%. It helps traders spot potential liquidity pockets.
8.2 Inputs
• scalpLookback: Window length used to compute volume averages.
• scalpVolMult: Multiplier applied to each side’s average volume; both buy and sell volumes must exceed this multiple.
• scalpTickCount: Maximum allowed number of ticks in a bar’s range (calculated as (high − low) / minTick). A value of 1 or 2 captures ultra‑small bars; increasing it relaxes the range requirement.
• scalpDeltaRatio: Maximum deviation from a perfect 50/50 split. For example, 0.05 means the buyer share must be between 45% and 55%.
• Label settings: ATR length, multiplier, size, colors, connector style and width.
• Toggles : show_scalp_module and show_scalp_labels to enable the module and its labels.
8.3 Signal
When, on the current bar, both TF_buy_breakout and TF_sell_breakout exceed scalpVolMult times their respective averages and (high − low)/minTick ≤ scalpTickCount and the buyer share is within scalpDeltaRatio of 50%, the module prints a “Spread ↔” label above the bar. The label uses the same ATR offset logic as other modules and draws a connector if enabled.
Figure caption, In this chart the spread‑capture module has identified a potential liquidity pocket. Buyer and seller volumes both spiked above their recent averages, yet the candle’s range measured only a couple of ticks and the buy/sell split stayed close to 50 %. This combination met the module’s criteria, so it printed a grey “Spread ↔” label above the bar. The red and green trend lines link the earliest and latest high and low pivots, and the dashed horizontals mark the highest high and lowest low within the current lookback window.
9. Money Flow Module
9.1 Concept
To translate volume into a monetary measure, this module multiplies each side’s volume by the closing price. It tracks buying and selling system money default currency on a per-bar basis and sums them over a chosen period. The difference between buy and sell currencies (Δ$) shows net inflow or outflow.
9.2 Inputs
• mf_period_len_mf: Number of bars used for summing buy and sell dollars.
• Label appearance settings: ATR length, multiplier, size, colors for up/down labels, and connector style and width.
• Toggles: Use enableMoneyFlowLabel_mf and showMFLabels to control whether the module and its labels are displayed.
9.3 Calculations
• Per-bar money: Buy $ = TF_buy_breakout × close; Sell $ = TF_sell_breakout × close. Their difference is Δ$ = Buy $ − Sell $.
• Summations: Over mf_period_len_mf bars, compute Σ Buy $, Σ Sell $ and ΣΔ$ using math.sum().
• Info table entries: Rows 9–13 display these values as texts like “↑ USD 1234 (1M)” or “ΣΔ USD −5678 (14)”, with colors reflecting whether buyers or sellers dominate.
• Money flow status: If Δ$ is positive the bar is marked “Money flow in” ; if negative, “Money flow out” ; if zero, “Neutral”. The cumulative status is similarly derived from ΣΔ.Labels print at the bar that changes the sign of ΣΔ, offset using ATR × label multiplier and styled per user preferences.
Figure caption, The chart illustrates a steady rise toward the highest recent pivot (HH1) with price riding between a rising green trend‑line and a red trend‑line drawn through earlier pivot highs. A green Money flow in label appears above the bar near the top of the channel, signaling that net dollar flow turned positive on this bar: buy‑side dollar volume exceeded sell‑side dollar volume, pushing the cumulative sum ΣΔ$ above zero. In the info table, the “Money flow (bar)” and “Money flow Σ” rows both read In, confirming that the indicator’s money‑flow module has detected an inflow at both bar and aggregate levels, while other modules (pivots, trend lines and support/resistance) remain active to provide structural context.
In this example the Money Flow module signals a net outflow. Price has been trending downward: successive high pivots form a falling red trend‑line and the low pivots form a descending green support line. When the latest bar broke below the previous low pivot (LL1), both the bar‑level and cumulative net dollar flow turned negative—selling volume at the close exceeded buying volume and pushed the cumulative Δ$ below zero. The module reacts by printing a red “Money flow out” label beneath the candle; the info table confirms that the “Money flow (bar)” and “Money flow Σ” rows both show Out, indicating sustained dominance of sellers in this period.
10. Info Table
10.1 Purpose
When enabled, the Info Table appears in the lower right of your chart. It summarises key values computed by the indicator—such as buy and sell volume, delta, total volume, breakout status, market phase, and money flow—so you can see at a glance which side is dominant and which signals are active.
10.2 Symbols
• ↑ / ↓ — Up (↑) denotes buy volume or money; down (↓) denotes sell volume or money.
• MA — Moving average. In the table it shows the average value of a series over the lookback period.
• Σ (Sigma) — Cumulative sum over the chosen lookback period.
• Δ (Delta) — Difference between buy and sell values.
• B / S — Buyer and seller share of total volume, expressed as percentages.
• Ref. Price — Reference price for breakout calculations, based on the latest pivot.
• Status — Indicates whether a breakout condition is currently active (True) or has failed.
10.3 Row definitions
1. Up volume / MA up volume – Displays current buy volume on the lower timeframe and its moving average over the lookback period.
2. Down volume / MA down volume – Shows current sell volume and its moving average; sell values are formatted in red for clarity.
3. Δ / ΣΔ – Lists the difference between buy and sell volume for the current bar and the cumulative delta volume over the lookback period.
4. Σ / MA Σ (Vol/MA) – Total volume (buy + sell) for the bar, with the ratio of this volume to its moving average; the right cell shows the average total volume.
5. B/S ratio – Buy and sell share of the total volume: current bar percentages and the average percentages across the lookback period.
6. Buyer Rank / Seller Rank – Ranks the bar’s buy and sell volumes among the last (n) bars; lower rank numbers indicate higher relative volume.
7. Σ Buy / Σ Sell – Sum of buy and sell volumes over the lookback window, indicating which side has traded more.
8. Breakout UP / DOWN – Shows the breakout thresholds (Ref. Price) and whether the breakout condition is active (True) or has failed.
9. Market Phase (Vol) – Reports the current volume‑only phase: Accumulation, Distribution or Neutral.
10. Money Flow – The final rows display dollar amounts and status:
– ↑ USD / Σ↑ USD – Buy dollars for the current bar and the cumulative sum over the money‑flow period.
– ↓ USD / Σ↓ USD – Sell dollars and their cumulative sum.
– Δ USD / ΣΔ USD – Net dollar difference (buy minus sell) for the bar and cumulatively.
– Money flow (bar) – Indicates whether the bar’s net dollar flow is positive (In), negative (Out) or neutral.
– Money flow Σ – Shows whether the cumulative net dollar flow across the chosen period is positive, negative or neutral.
The chart above shows a sequence of different signals from the indicator. A Bull Trap Risk appears after price briefly pushes above resistance but fails to hold, then a green Accum label identifies an accumulation phase. An upward breakout follows, confirmed by a Money flow in print. Later, a Sharp ↓ Risk warns of a possible sharp downturn; after price dips below support but quickly recovers, a Bear Trap label marks a false breakdown. The highlighted info table in the center summarizes key metrics at that moment, including current and average buy/sell volumes, net delta, total volume versus its moving average, breakout status (up and down), market phase (volume), and bar‑level and cumulative money flow (In/Out).
11. Conclusion & Final Remarks
This indicator was developed as a holistic study of market structure and order flow. It brings together several well‑known concepts from technical analysis—breakouts, accumulation and distribution phases, overbought and oversold extremes, bull and bear traps, sharp directional moves, market‑maker spread bars and money flow—into a single Pine Script tool. Each module is based on widely recognized trading ideas and was implemented after consulting reference materials and example strategies, so you can see in real time how these concepts interact on your chart.
A distinctive feature of this indicator is its reliance on per‑side volume: instead of tallying only total volume, it separately measures buy and sell transactions on a lower time frame. This approach gives a clearer view of who is in control—buyers or sellers—and helps filter breakouts, detect phases of accumulation or distribution, recognize potential traps, anticipate sharp moves and gauge whether liquidity providers are active. The money‑flow module extends this analysis by converting volume into currency values and tracking net inflow or outflow across a chosen window.
Although comprehensive, this indicator is intended solely as a guide. It highlights conditions and statistics that many traders find useful, but it does not generate trading signals or guarantee results. Ultimately, you remain responsible for your positions. Use the information presented here to inform your analysis, combine it with other tools and risk‑management techniques, and always make your own decisions when trading.
Tzotchev Trend Measure [EdgeTools]Are you still measuring trend strength with moving averages? Here is a better variant at scientific level:
Tzotchev Trend Measure: A Statistical Approach to Trend Following
The Tzotchev Trend Measure represents a sophisticated advancement in quantitative trend analysis, moving beyond traditional moving average-based indicators toward a statistically rigorous framework for measuring trend strength. This indicator implements the methodology developed by Tzotchev et al. (2015) in their seminal J.P. Morgan research paper "Designing robust trend-following system: Behind the scenes of trend-following," which introduced a probabilistic approach to trend measurement that has since become a cornerstone of institutional trading strategies.
Mathematical Foundation and Statistical Theory
The core innovation of the Tzotchev Trend Measure lies in its transformation of price momentum into a probability-based metric through the application of statistical hypothesis testing principles. The indicator employs the fundamental formula ST = 2 × Φ(√T × r̄T / σ̂T) - 1, where ST represents the trend strength score bounded between -1 and +1, Φ(x) denotes the normal cumulative distribution function, T represents the lookback period in trading days, r̄T is the average logarithmic return over the specified period, and σ̂T represents the estimated daily return volatility.
This formulation transforms what is essentially a t-statistic into a probabilistic trend measure, testing the null hypothesis that the mean return equals zero against the alternative hypothesis of non-zero mean return. The use of logarithmic returns rather than simple returns provides several statistical advantages, including symmetry properties where log(P₁/P₀) = -log(P₀/P₁), additivity characteristics that allow for proper compounding analysis, and improved validity of normal distribution assumptions that underpin the statistical framework.
The implementation utilizes the Abramowitz and Stegun (1964) approximation for the normal cumulative distribution function, achieving accuracy within ±1.5 × 10⁻⁷ for all input values. This approximation employs Horner's method for polynomial evaluation to ensure numerical stability, particularly important when processing large datasets or extreme market conditions.
Comparative Analysis with Traditional Trend Measurement Methods
The Tzotchev Trend Measure demonstrates significant theoretical and empirical advantages over conventional trend analysis techniques. Traditional moving average-based systems, including simple moving averages (SMA), exponential moving averages (EMA), and their derivatives such as MACD, suffer from several fundamental limitations that the Tzotchev methodology addresses systematically.
Moving average systems exhibit inherent lag bias, as documented by Kaufman (2013) in "Trading Systems and Methods," where he demonstrates that moving averages inevitably lag price movements by approximately half their period length. This lag creates delayed signal generation that reduces profitability in trending markets and increases false signal frequency during consolidation periods. In contrast, the Tzotchev measure eliminates lag bias by directly analyzing the statistical properties of return distributions rather than smoothing price levels.
The volatility normalization inherent in the Tzotchev formula addresses a critical weakness in traditional momentum indicators. As shown by Bollinger (2001) in "Bollinger on Bollinger Bands," momentum oscillators like RSI and Stochastic fail to account for changing volatility regimes, leading to inconsistent signal interpretation across different market conditions. The Tzotchev measure's incorporation of return volatility in the denominator ensures that trend strength assessments remain consistent regardless of the underlying volatility environment.
Empirical studies by Hurst, Ooi, and Pedersen (2013) in "Demystifying Managed Futures" demonstrate that traditional trend-following indicators suffer from significant drawdowns during whipsaw markets, with Sharpe ratios frequently below 0.5 during challenging periods. The authors attribute these poor performance characteristics to the binary nature of most trend signals and their inability to quantify signal confidence. The Tzotchev measure addresses this limitation by providing continuous probability-based outputs that allow for more sophisticated risk management and position sizing strategies.
The statistical foundation of the Tzotchev approach provides superior robustness compared to technical indicators that lack theoretical grounding. Fama and French (1988) in "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices" established that price movements contain both permanent and temporary components, with traditional moving averages unable to distinguish between these elements effectively. The Tzotchev methodology's hypothesis testing framework specifically tests for the presence of permanent trend components while filtering out temporary noise, providing a more theoretically sound approach to trend identification.
Research by Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012) in "Time Series Momentum in the Cross Section of Asset Returns" found that traditional momentum indicators exhibit significant variation in effectiveness across asset classes and time periods. Their study of multiple asset classes over decades revealed that simple price-based momentum measures often fail to capture persistent trends in fixed income and commodity markets. The Tzotchev measure's normalization by volatility and its probabilistic interpretation provide consistent performance across diverse asset classes, as demonstrated in the original J.P. Morgan research.
Comparative performance studies conducted by AQR Capital Management (Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen, 2013) in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" show that volatility-adjusted momentum measures significantly outperform traditional price momentum across international equity, bond, commodity, and currency markets. The study documents Sharpe ratio improvements of 0.2 to 0.4 when incorporating volatility normalization, consistent with the theoretical advantages of the Tzotchev approach.
The regime detection capabilities of the Tzotchev measure provide additional advantages over binary trend classification systems. Research by Ang and Bekaert (2002) in "Regime Switches in Interest Rates" demonstrates that financial markets exhibit distinct regime characteristics that traditional indicators fail to capture adequately. The Tzotchev measure's five-tier classification system (Strong Bull, Weak Bull, Neutral, Weak Bear, Strong Bear) provides more nuanced market state identification than simple trend/no-trend binary systems.
Statistical testing by Jegadeesh and Titman (2001) in "Profitability of Momentum Strategies" revealed that traditional momentum indicators suffer from significant parameter instability, with optimal lookback periods varying substantially across market conditions and asset classes. The Tzotchev measure's statistical framework provides more stable parameter selection through its grounding in hypothesis testing theory, reducing the need for frequent parameter optimization that can lead to overfitting.
Advanced Noise Filtering and Market Regime Detection
A significant enhancement over the original Tzotchev methodology is the incorporation of a multi-factor noise filtering system designed to reduce false signals during sideways market conditions. The filtering mechanism employs four distinct approaches: adaptive thresholding based on current market regime strength, volatility-based filtering utilizing ATR percentile analysis, trend strength confirmation through momentum alignment, and a comprehensive multi-factor approach that combines all methodologies.
The adaptive filtering system analyzes market microstructure through price change relative to average true range, calculates volatility percentiles over rolling windows, and assesses trend alignment across multiple timeframes using exponential moving averages of varying periods. This approach addresses one of the primary limitations identified in traditional trend-following systems, namely their tendency to generate excessive false signals during periods of low volatility or sideways price action.
The regime detection component classifies market conditions into five distinct categories: Strong Bull (ST > 0.3), Weak Bull (0.1 < ST ≤ 0.3), Neutral (-0.1 ≤ ST ≤ 0.1), Weak Bear (-0.3 ≤ ST < -0.1), and Strong Bear (ST < -0.3). This classification system provides traders with clear, quantitative definitions of market regimes that can inform position sizing, risk management, and strategy selection decisions.
Professional Implementation and Trading Applications
The indicator incorporates three distinct trading profiles designed to accommodate different investment approaches and risk tolerances. The Conservative profile employs longer lookback periods (63 days), higher signal thresholds (0.2), and reduced filter sensitivity (0.5) to minimize false signals and focus on major trend changes. The Balanced profile utilizes standard academic parameters with moderate settings across all dimensions. The Aggressive profile implements shorter lookback periods (14 days), lower signal thresholds (-0.1), and increased filter sensitivity (1.5) to capture shorter-term trend movements.
Signal generation occurs through threshold crossover analysis, where long signals are generated when the trend measure crosses above the specified threshold and short signals when it crosses below. The implementation includes sophisticated signal confirmation mechanisms that consider trend alignment across multiple timeframes and momentum strength percentiles to reduce the likelihood of false breakouts.
The alert system provides real-time notifications for trend threshold crossovers, strong regime changes, and signal generation events, with configurable frequency controls to prevent notification spam. Alert messages are standardized to ensure consistency across different market conditions and timeframes.
Performance Optimization and Computational Efficiency
The implementation incorporates several performance optimization features designed to handle large datasets efficiently. The maximum bars back parameter allows users to control historical calculation depth, with default settings optimized for most trading applications while providing flexibility for extended historical analysis. The system includes automatic performance monitoring that generates warnings when computational limits are approached.
Error handling mechanisms protect against division by zero conditions, infinite values, and other numerical instabilities that can occur during extreme market conditions. The finite value checking system ensures data integrity throughout the calculation process, with fallback mechanisms that maintain indicator functionality even when encountering corrupted or missing price data.
Timeframe validation provides warnings when the indicator is applied to unsuitable timeframes, as the Tzotchev methodology was specifically designed for daily and higher timeframe analysis. This validation helps prevent misapplication of the indicator in contexts where its statistical assumptions may not hold.
Visual Design and User Interface
The indicator features eight professional color schemes designed for different trading environments and user preferences. The EdgeTools theme provides an institutional blue and steel color palette suitable for professional trading environments. The Gold theme offers warm colors optimized for commodities trading. The Behavioral theme incorporates psychology-based color contrasts that align with behavioral finance principles. The Quant theme provides neutral colors suitable for analytical applications.
Additional specialized themes include Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic variations, each optimized for specific visual preferences and trading contexts. All color schemes include automatic dark and light mode optimization to ensure optimal readability across different chart backgrounds and trading platforms.
The information table provides real-time display of key metrics including current trend measure value, market regime classification, signal strength, Z-score, average returns, volatility measures, filter threshold levels, and filter effectiveness percentages. This comprehensive dashboard allows traders to monitor all relevant indicator components simultaneously.
Theoretical Implications and Research Context
The Tzotchev Trend Measure addresses several theoretical limitations inherent in traditional technical analysis approaches. Unlike moving average-based systems that rely on price level comparisons, this methodology grounds trend analysis in statistical hypothesis testing, providing a more robust theoretical foundation for trading decisions.
The probabilistic interpretation of trend strength offers significant advantages over binary trend classification systems. Rather than simply indicating whether a trend exists, the measure quantifies the statistical confidence level associated with the trend assessment, allowing for more nuanced risk management and position sizing decisions.
The incorporation of volatility normalization addresses the well-documented problem of volatility clustering in financial time series, ensuring that trend strength assessments remain consistent across different market volatility regimes. This normalization is particularly important for portfolio management applications where consistent risk metrics across different assets and time periods are essential.
Practical Applications and Trading Strategy Integration
The Tzotchev Trend Measure can be effectively integrated into various trading strategies and portfolio management frameworks. For trend-following strategies, the indicator provides clear entry and exit signals with quantified confidence levels. For mean reversion strategies, extreme readings can signal potential turning points. For portfolio allocation, the regime classification system can inform dynamic asset allocation decisions.
The indicator's statistical foundation makes it particularly suitable for quantitative trading strategies where systematic, rules-based approaches are preferred over discretionary decision-making. The standardized output range facilitates easy integration with position sizing algorithms and risk management systems.
Risk management applications benefit from the indicator's ability to quantify trend strength and provide early warning signals of potential trend changes. The multi-timeframe analysis capability allows for the construction of robust risk management frameworks that consider both short-term tactical and long-term strategic market conditions.
Implementation Guide and Parameter Configuration
The practical application of the Tzotchev Trend Measure requires careful parameter configuration to optimize performance for specific trading objectives and market conditions. This section provides comprehensive guidance for parameter selection and indicator customization.
Core Calculation Parameters
The Lookback Period parameter controls the statistical window used for trend calculation and represents the most critical setting for the indicator. Default values range from 14 to 63 trading days, with shorter periods (14-21 days) providing more sensitive trend detection suitable for short-term trading strategies, while longer periods (42-63 days) offer more stable trend identification appropriate for position trading and long-term investment strategies. The parameter directly influences the statistical significance of trend measurements, with longer periods requiring stronger underlying trends to generate significant signals but providing greater reliability in trend identification.
The Price Source parameter determines which price series is used for return calculations. The default close price provides standard trend analysis, while alternative selections such as high-low midpoint ((high + low) / 2) can reduce noise in volatile markets, and volume-weighted average price (VWAP) offers superior trend identification in institutional trading environments where volume concentration matters significantly.
The Signal Threshold parameter establishes the minimum trend strength required for signal generation, with values ranging from -0.5 to 0.5. Conservative threshold settings (0.2 to 0.3) reduce false signals but may miss early trend opportunities, while aggressive settings (-0.1 to 0.1) provide earlier signal generation at the cost of increased false positive rates. The optimal threshold depends on the trader's risk tolerance and the volatility characteristics of the traded instrument.
Trading Profile Configuration
The Trading Profile system provides pre-configured parameter sets optimized for different trading approaches. The Conservative profile employs a 63-day lookback period with a 0.2 signal threshold and 0.5 noise sensitivity, designed for long-term position traders seeking high-probability trend signals with minimal false positives. The Balanced profile uses a 21-day lookback with 0.05 signal threshold and 1.0 noise sensitivity, suitable for swing traders requiring moderate signal frequency with acceptable noise levels. The Aggressive profile implements a 14-day lookback with -0.1 signal threshold and 1.5 noise sensitivity, optimized for day traders and scalpers requiring frequent signal generation despite higher noise levels.
Advanced Noise Filtering System
The noise filtering mechanism addresses the challenge of false signals during sideways market conditions through four distinct methodologies. The Adaptive filter adjusts thresholds based on current trend strength, increasing sensitivity during strong trending periods while raising thresholds during consolidation phases. The Volatility-based filter utilizes Average True Range (ATR) percentile analysis to suppress signals during abnormally volatile conditions that typically generate false trend indications.
The Trend Strength filter requires alignment between multiple momentum indicators before confirming signals, reducing the probability of false breakouts from consolidation patterns. The Multi-factor approach combines all filtering methodologies using weighted scoring to provide the most robust noise reduction while maintaining signal responsiveness during genuine trend initiations.
The Noise Sensitivity parameter controls the aggressiveness of the filtering system, with lower values (0.5-1.0) providing conservative filtering suitable for volatile instruments, while higher values (1.5-2.0) allow more signals through but may increase false positive rates during choppy market conditions.
Visual Customization and Display Options
The Color Scheme parameter offers eight professional visualization options designed for different analytical preferences and market conditions. The EdgeTools scheme provides high contrast visualization optimized for trend strength differentiation, while the Gold scheme offers warm tones suitable for commodity analysis. The Behavioral scheme uses psychological color associations to enhance decision-making speed, and the Quant scheme provides neutral colors appropriate for quantitative analysis environments.
The Ocean, Fire, Matrix, and Arctic schemes offer additional aesthetic options while maintaining analytical functionality. Each scheme includes optimized colors for both light and dark chart backgrounds, ensuring visibility across different trading platform configurations.
The Show Glow Effects parameter enhances plot visibility through multiple layered lines with progressive transparency, particularly useful when analyzing multiple timeframes simultaneously or when working with dense price data that might obscure trend signals.
Performance Optimization Settings
The Maximum Bars Back parameter controls the historical data depth available for calculations, with values ranging from 5,000 to 50,000 bars. Higher values enable analysis of longer-term trend patterns but may impact indicator loading speed on slower systems or when applied to multiple instruments simultaneously. The optimal setting depends on the intended analysis timeframe and available computational resources.
The Calculate on Every Tick parameter determines whether the indicator updates with every price change or only at bar close. Real-time calculation provides immediate signal updates suitable for scalping and day trading strategies, while bar-close calculation reduces computational overhead and eliminates signal flickering during bar formation, preferred for swing trading and position management applications.
Alert System Configuration
The Alert Frequency parameter controls notification generation, with options for all signals, bar close only, or once per bar. High-frequency trading strategies benefit from all signals mode, while position traders typically prefer bar close alerts to avoid premature position entries based on intrabar fluctuations.
The alert system generates four distinct notification types: Long Signal alerts when the trend measure crosses above the positive signal threshold, Short Signal alerts for negative threshold crossings, Bull Regime alerts when entering strong bullish conditions, and Bear Regime alerts for strong bearish regime identification.
Table Display and Information Management
The information table provides real-time statistical metrics including current trend value, regime classification, signal status, and filter effectiveness measurements. The table position can be customized for optimal screen real estate utilization, and individual metrics can be toggled based on analytical requirements.
The Language parameter supports both English and German display options for international users, while maintaining consistent calculation methodology regardless of display language selection.
Risk Management Integration
Effective risk management integration requires coordination between the trend measure signals and position sizing algorithms. Strong trend readings (above 0.5 or below -0.5) support larger position sizes due to higher probability of trend continuation, while neutral readings (between -0.2 and 0.2) suggest reduced position sizes or range-trading strategies.
The regime classification system provides additional risk management context, with Strong Bull and Strong Bear regimes supporting trend-following strategies, while Neutral regimes indicate potential for mean reversion approaches. The filter effectiveness metric helps traders assess current market conditions and adjust strategy parameters accordingly.
Timeframe Considerations and Multi-Timeframe Analysis
The indicator's effectiveness varies across different timeframes, with higher timeframes (daily, weekly) providing more reliable trend identification but slower signal generation, while lower timeframes (hourly, 15-minute) offer faster signals with increased noise levels. Multi-timeframe analysis combining trend alignment across multiple periods significantly improves signal quality and reduces false positive rates.
For optimal results, traders should consider trend alignment between the primary trading timeframe and at least one higher timeframe before entering positions. Divergences between timeframes often signal potential trend reversals or consolidation periods requiring strategy adjustment.
Conclusion
The Tzotchev Trend Measure represents a significant advancement in technical analysis methodology, combining rigorous statistical foundations with practical trading applications. Its implementation of the J.P. Morgan research methodology provides institutional-quality trend analysis capabilities previously available only to sophisticated quantitative trading firms.
The comprehensive parameter configuration options enable customization for diverse trading styles and market conditions, while the advanced noise filtering and regime detection capabilities provide superior signal quality compared to traditional trend-following indicators. Proper parameter selection and understanding of the indicator's statistical foundation are essential for achieving optimal trading results and effective risk management.
References
Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I.A. (1964). Handbook of Mathematical Functions with Formulas, Graphs, and Mathematical Tables. Washington: National Bureau of Standards.
Ang, A. and Bekaert, G. (2002). Regime Switches in Interest Rates. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20(2), 163-182.
Asness, C.S., Moskowitz, T.J., and Pedersen, L.H. (2013). Value and Momentum Everywhere. Journal of Finance, 68(3), 929-985.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1988). Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices. Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), 246-273.
Hurst, B., Ooi, Y.H., and Pedersen, L.H. (2013). Demystifying Managed Futures. Journal of Investment Management, 11(3), 42-58.
Jegadeesh, N. and Titman, S. (2001). Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations. Journal of Finance, 56(2), 699-720.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013). Trading Systems and Methods. 5th Edition. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Moskowitz, T.J., Ooi, Y.H., and Pedersen, L.H. (2012). Time Series Momentum. Journal of Financial Economics, 104(2), 228-250.
Tzotchev, D., Lo, A.W., and Hasanhodzic, J. (2015). Designing robust trend-following system: Behind the scenes of trend-following. J.P. Morgan Quantitative Research, Asset Management Division.
Savitzky-Golay Hampel Filter | AlphaNattSavitzky-Golay Hampel Filter | AlphaNatt
A revolutionary indicator combining NASA's satellite data processing algorithms with robust statistical outlier detection to create the most scientifically advanced trend filter available on TradingView.
"This is the same mathematics that processes signals from the Hubble Space Telescope and analyzes data from the Large Hadron Collider - now applied to financial markets."
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🚀 SCIENTIFIC PEDIGREE
Savitzky-Golay Filter Applications:
NASA: Satellite telemetry and space probe data processing
CERN: Particle physics data analysis at the LHC
Pharmaceutical: Chromatography and spectroscopy analysis
Astronomy: Processing signals from radio telescopes
Medical: ECG and EEG signal processing
Hampel Filter Usage:
Aerospace: Cleaning sensor data from aircraft and spacecraft
Manufacturing: Quality control in precision engineering
Seismology: Earthquake detection and analysis
Robotics: Sensor fusion and noise reduction
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🧬 THE MATHEMATICS
1. Savitzky-Golay Filter
The SG filter performs local polynomial regression on data points:
Fits a polynomial of degree n to a sliding window of data
Evaluates the polynomial at the center point
Preserves higher moments (peaks, valleys) unlike moving averages
Maintains derivative information for true momentum analysis
Originally published in Analytical Chemistry (1964)
Mathematical Properties:
Optimal smoothing in the least-squares sense
Preserves statistical moments up to polynomial order
Exact derivative calculation without additional lag
Superior frequency response vs traditional filters
2. Hampel Filter
A robust outlier detector based on Median Absolute Deviation (MAD):
Identifies outliers using robust statistics
Replaces spurious values with polynomial-fitted estimates
Resistant to up to 50% contaminated data
MAD is 1.4826 times more robust than standard deviation
Outlier Detection Formula:
|x - median| > k × 1.4826 × MAD
Where k is the threshold parameter (typically 3 for 99.7% confidence)
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💎 WHY THIS IS SUPERIOR
vs Moving Averages:
Preserves peaks and valleys (critical for catching tops/bottoms)
No lag penalty for smoothness
Maintains derivative information
Polynomial fitting > simple averaging
vs Other Filters:
Outlier immunity (Hampel component)
Scientifically optimal smoothing
Preserves higher-order features
Used in billion-dollar research projects
Unique Advantages:
Feature Preservation: Maintains market structure while smoothing
Spike Immunity: Ignores false breakouts and stop hunts
Derivative Accuracy: True momentum without additional indicators
Scientific Validation: 60+ years of academic research
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⚙️ PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION
1. Polynomial Order (2-5)
2 (Quadratic): Maximum smoothing, gentle curves
3 (Cubic): Balanced smoothing and responsiveness (recommended)
4-5 (Higher): More responsive, preserves more features
2. Window Size (7-51)
Must be odd number
Larger = smoother but more lag
Formula: 2×(desired smoothing period) + 1
Default 21 = analyzes 10 bars each side
3. Hampel Threshold (1.0-5.0)
1.0: Aggressive outlier removal (68% confidence)
2.0: Moderate outlier removal (95% confidence)
3.0: Conservative outlier removal (99.7% confidence) (default)
4.0+: Only extreme outliers removed
4. Final Smoothing (1-7)
Additional WMA smoothing after filtering
1 = No additional smoothing
3-5 = Recommended for most timeframes
7 = Ultra-smooth for position trading
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📊 TRADING STRATEGIES
Signal Recognition:
Cyan Line: Bullish trend with positive derivative
Pink Line: Bearish trend with negative derivative
Color Change: Trend reversal with polynomial confirmation
1. Trend Following Strategy
Enter when price crosses above cyan filter
Exit when filter turns pink
Use filter as dynamic stop loss
Best in trending markets
2. Mean Reversion Strategy
Enter long when price touches filter from below in uptrend
Enter short when price touches filter from above in downtrend
Exit at opposite band or filter color change
Excellent for range-bound markets
3. Derivative Strategy (Advanced)
The SG filter preserves derivative information
Acceleration = second derivative > 0
Enter on positive first derivative + positive acceleration
Exit on negative second derivative (momentum slowing)
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📈 PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
Strengths:
Outlier Immunity: Ignores stop hunts and flash crashes
Feature Preservation: Catches tops/bottoms better than MAs
Smooth Output: Reduces whipsaws significantly
Scientific Basis: Not curve-fitted or optimized to markets
Considerations:
Slight lag in extreme volatility (all filters have this)
Requires odd window sizes (mathematical requirement)
More complex than simple moving averages
Best with liquid instruments
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🔬 SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND
Savitzky-Golay Publication:
"Smoothing and Differentiation of Data by Simplified Least Squares Procedures"
- Abraham Savitzky & Marcel Golay
- Analytical Chemistry, Vol. 36, No. 8, 1964
Hampel Filter Origin:
"Robust Statistics: The Approach Based on Influence Functions"
- Frank Hampel et al., 1986
- Princeton University Press
These techniques have been validated in thousands of scientific papers and are standard tools in:
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
European Space Agency
CERN (Large Hadron Collider)
MIT Lincoln Laboratory
Max Planck Institutes
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💡 ADVANCED TIPS
News Trading: Lower Hampel threshold before major events to catch spikes
Scalping: Use Order=2 for maximum smoothness, Window=11 for responsiveness
Position Trading: Increase Window to 31+ for long-term trends
Combine with Volume: Strong trends need volume confirmation
Multiple Timeframes: Use daily for trend, hourly for entry
Watch the Derivative: Filter color changes when first derivative changes sign
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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTICES
Not financial advice - educational purposes only
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Always use proper risk management
Test settings on your specific instrument and timeframe
No indicator is perfect - part of complete trading system
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🏆 CONCLUSION
The Savitzky-Golay Hampel Filter represents the pinnacle of scientific signal processing applied to financial markets. By combining polynomial regression with robust outlier detection, traders gain access to the same mathematical tools that:
Guide spacecraft to other planets
Detect gravitational waves from black holes
Analyze particle collisions at near light-speed
Process signals from deep space
This isn't just another indicator - it's rocket science for trading .
"When NASA needs to separate signal from noise in billion-dollar missions, they use these exact algorithms. Now you can too."
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Developed by AlphaNatt
Version: 1.0
Release: 2025
Pine Script: v6
"Where Space Technology Meets Market Analysis"
Not financial advice. Always DYOR
Extreme Zone Volume ProfileExtreme Zone Volume Profile (EZVP)
Originality & Innovation
The Extreme Zone Volume Profile (EZVP) revolutionizes traditional volume profile analysis by applying statistical zone classification to volume distribution. Unlike standard volume profiles that display raw volume data, EZVP segments the price range into statistically meaningful zones based on percentile thresholds, allowing traders to instantly identify where volume concentration suggests strong support/resistance versus areas of potential breakout.
Technical Methodology
Core Algorithm:
Distributes volume across user-defined bins (20-200) over a lookback period
Calculates volume-weighted price levels for each bin
Applies percentile-based zone classification to the price range (not volume ranking)
Zone B (extreme zones): Outer percentile tails representing potential rejection areas
Zone A (significant zones): Secondary percentile bands indicating strong interest levels
Center Zone: Bulk trading range where most price discovery occurs
Mathematical Foundation:
The script uses price-range percentiles rather than volume percentiles. If the total price range is divided into 100%, Zone B captures the extreme price tails (default 2.5% each end ≈ 2 standard deviations), Zone A captures the next significant bands (default 14% each ≈ 1 standard deviation), leaving the center for normal distribution trading.
Key Calculations:
POC (Point of Control): Price level with maximum volume accumulation
Volume-weighted mean price: Total volume × price / total volume
Median price: Geometric center of the price range
Rightward-projected bars: Volume bars extend forward from current time to avoid historical chart clutter
Trading Applications
Zone Interpretation:
Zone B (Red/Green): Extreme price levels where volume suggests strong rejection potential. Price reaching these zones often indicates overextension and possible reversal points.
Zone A (Orange/Teal): Significant support/resistance areas with substantial volume interest. These levels often act as intermediate targets or consolidation zones.
Center (Gray): Fair value area where most trading occurs. Price tends to return to this range during normal market conditions.
Strategic Usage:
Reversal Trading: Look for rejection signals when price enters Zone B areas
Breakout Confirmation: Volume expansion beyond Zone B boundaries suggests genuine breakouts
Support/Resistance: Zone A boundaries often provide reliable entry/exit levels
Mean Reversion: Price tends to gravitate toward the volume-weighted mean and POC lines
Unique Value Proposition
EZVP addresses three key limitations of traditional volume profiles:
Visual Clarity: Standard profiles can be cluttered and difficult to interpret quickly. EZVP's color-coded zones provide instant visual feedback about price significance.
Statistical Framework: Rather than relying on subjective interpretation of volume nodes, EZVP applies objective percentile-based classification, making support/resistance identification more systematic.
Forward-Looking Display: Rightward-projecting bars keep historical price action clean while maintaining current market structure visibility.
Configuration Guide
Lookback Period (10-1000): Controls the historical depth of volume calculation. Shorter periods for intraday scalping, longer for swing trading.
Number of Bins (20-200): Resolution of volume distribution. Higher values provide more granular analysis but may create noise on lower timeframes.
Zone Percentages:
Zone B: Extreme threshold (default 2.5% = ~2σ statistical significance)
Zone A: Significant threshold (default 14% = ~1σ statistical significance)
Visual Controls: Toggle individual elements (POC, median, mean, zone lines) to customize display complexity for your trading style.
Technical Requirements
Pine Script v6 compatible
Maximum bars back: 5000 (ensures sufficient historical data)
Maximum boxes: 500 (supports high-resolution bin counts)
Maximum lines: 50 (accommodates all zone and reference lines)
This indicator synthesizes volume profile theory with statistical zone analysis, providing a quantitative framework for identifying high-probability support/resistance levels based on volume distribution patterns rather than arbitrary price levels.
US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
Aruoba, S. B., Diebold, F. X., & Scotti, C. (2009). Real-time measurement of business conditions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4), 417-427.
Basseville, M., & Nikiforov, I. V. (1993). Detection of abrupt changes: Theory and application. Prentice Hall.
Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
Cormen, T. H., Leiserson, C. E., Rivest, R. L., & Stein, C. (2009). Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press.
Doz, C., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2011). A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), 188-205.
Dzeng, R. J., & Lin, Y. C. (2004). Intelligent agents for supporting construction procurement negotiation. Expert Systems with Applications, 27(1), 107-119.
Elliot, A. J., & Maier, M. A. (2014). Color psychology: Effects of perceiving color on psychological functioning in humans. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 95-120.
Few, S. (2006). Information dashboard design: The effective visual communication of data. O'Reilly Media.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Foley, J. D., van Dam, A., Feiner, S. K., & Hughes, J. F. (1995). Computer graphics: Principles and practice. Addison-Wesley.
Gordon, M. J. (1962). The investment, financing, and valuation of the corporation. Richard D. Irwin.
Hasbrouck, J. (2007). Empirical market microstructure: The institutions, economics, and econometrics of securities trading. Oxford University Press.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
Nielsen, J. (1993). Usability engineering. Academic Press.
Norman, D. A. (2013). The design of everyday things: Revised and expanded edition. Basic Books.
OECD (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing.
Oppenheim, A. V., & Schafer, R. W. (2009). Discrete-time signal processing. Prentice Hall.
Sahm, C. (2019). Direct stimulus payments to individuals. In Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy (pp. 67-92). The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
Siegel, J. J. (2002). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies. McGraw-Hill.
Sommerville, I. (2016). Software engineering. Pearson.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 351-394.
Sweller, J. (1988). Cognitive load during problem solving: Effects on learning. Cognitive Science, 12(2), 257-285.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information. Graphics Press.
Yardeni, E. (2003). Stock valuation models. Topical Study, 38. Yardeni Research.
Liquidity Trap Zones [PhenLabs]📊 Liquidity Trap Zones
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The goal of the Liquidity Trap Zones indicator is to try and help traders identify areas where market liquidity appears abundant but is actually thin or artificial, helping traders avoid potential fake outs and false breakouts. This advanced indicator analyzes the relationship between price wicks and volume to detect “mirage” zones where large price movements occur on low volume, indicating potential liquidity traps.
By highlighting these deceptive zones on your charts, the indicator helps traders recognize where institutional players might be creating artificial liquidity to trap retail traders. This enables more informed decision-making and better risk management when approaching key price levels.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Mirage Score Algorithm: Proprietary calculation that normalizes wick size relative to volume and average bar size
Dynamic Zone Creation: Automatically generates gradient-filled zones at trap locations with ATR-based sizing
Intelligent Zone Management: Maintains clean charts by limiting displayed zones and auto-updating existing ones
Scale-Invariant Design: Works across all assets and timeframes with intelligent normalization
Real-Time Detection: Identifies trap zones as they form, not after the fact
Volume-Adjusted Analysis: Incorporates tick volume when available for more accurate detection
🔧 Core Components
Mirage Score Calculator: Analyzes the ratio of price wicks to volume, normalized by average bar size
ATR-Based Filter: Ensures only significant price movements are considered for trap zone creation
EMA Smoothing: Reduces noise in the mirage score for clearer signals
Gradient Zone Renderer: Creates visually distinct zones with multiple opacity levels for better visibility
🔥 Key Features
Real-Time Trap Detection: Identifies liquidity mirages as they develop during live trading
Dynamic Zone Sizing: Adjusts zone height based on current market volatility (ATR)
Smart Zone Management: Automatically maintains a clean chart by limiting the number of displayed zones
Customizable Sensitivity: Fine-tune detection parameters for different market conditions
Visual Clarity: Gradient-filled zones with distinct borders for easy identification
Status Line Display: Shows current mirage score and threshold for quick reference
🎨 Visualization
Gradient Trap Zones: Purple gradient boxes with darker centers indicating trap strength
Mirage Score Line: Orange line in status area showing current liquidity quality
Threshold Reference: Gray line showing your configured detection threshold
Extended Zone Display: Zones automatically extend forward as new bars form
📖 Usage Guidelines
Detection Settings
Smoothing Length (EMA) - Default: 10 - Range: 1-50 - Description: Controls responsiveness of mirage score. Lower values make detection more sensitive to recent price action
Mirage Threshold - Default: 5.0 - Range: 0.1-20.0 - Description: Score above this level triggers trap zone creation. Higher values reduce false positives but may miss subtle traps
Filter Settings
ATR Length for Range Filter - Default: 14 - Range: 1-50 - Description: Period for volatility calculation. Standard 14 works well for most timeframes
ATR Multiplier - Default: 1.0 - Range: 0.0-5.0 - Description: Minimum bar range as multiple of ATR. Higher values filter out smaller moves
Display Settings
Zone Height Multiplier - Default: 0.5 - Range: 0.1-2.0 - Description: Controls trap zone height relative to ATR. Adjust for visual preference
Max Trap Zones - Default: 5 - Range: 1-20 - Description: Maximum zones displayed before oldest are removed. Balance clarity vs. history
✅ Best Use Cases
Identifying potential fakeout levels before entering trades
Confirming support/resistance quality by checking for liquidity traps
Avoiding stop-loss placement in trap zones where sweeps are likely
Timing entries after trap zones are cleared
Scalping opportunities when price approaches known trap zones
⚠️ Limitations
Requires volume data - less effective on instruments without reliable volume
May generate false signals during news events or genuine volume spikes
Not a standalone system - combine with price action and other indicators
Zone creation is based on historical data - future price behavior not guaranteed
💡 What Makes This Unique
First indicator to specifically target liquidity mirages using wick-to-volume analysis
Proprietary normalization ensures consistent performance across all markets
Visual gradient design makes trap zones immediately recognizable
Combines multiple volatility and volume metrics for robust detection
🔬 How It Works
1. Wick Analysis: Calculates upper and lower wicks for each bar. Normalizes by average bar size to ensure scale independence
2. Mirage Score Calculation: Divides total wick size by volume to identify thin liquidity. Applies EMA smoothing to reduce noise. Scales result for optimal visibility
3. Zone Creation: Triggers when smoothed score crosses threshold. Creates gradient boxes centered on trap bar. Sizes zones based on current ATR for market-appropriate scaling
💡 Note: Liquidity Trap Zones works best when combined with traditional support/resistance analysis and volume profile indicators. The zones highlight areas of deceptive liquidity but should not be the sole factor in trading decisions. Always use proper risk management and confirm signals with price action.
RifleShooterLibLibrary "RifleShooterLib"
Provides a collection of helper functions in support of the Rifle Shooter Indicators.
Functions support the key components of the Rifle Trade algorithm including
* measuring momentum
* identifying paraboloic price action (to disable the algorthim during such time)
* determine the lookback criteria of X point movement in last N minutes
* processing and navigating between the 23/43/73 levels
* maintaining a status table of algorithm progress
toStrRnd(val, digits)
Parameters:
val (float)
digits (int)
_isValidTimeRange(startTimeInput, endTimeInput)
Parameters:
startTimeInput (string)
endTimeInput (string)
_normalize(_src, _min, _max)
_normalize Normalizes series with unknown min/max using historical min/max.
Parameters:
_src (float) : Source series to normalize
_min (float) : minimum value of the rescaled series
_max (float) : maximum value of the rescaled series
Returns: The series scaled with values between min and max
arrayToSeries(arrayInput)
arrayToSeries Return an array from the provided series.
Parameters:
arrayInput (array) : Source array to convert to a series
Returns: The array as a series datatype
f_parabolicFiltering(_activeCount, long, shooterRsi, shooterRsiLongThreshold, shooterRsiShortThreshold, fiveMinuteRsi, fiveMinRsiLongThreshold, fiveMinRsiShortThreshold, shooterRsiRoc, shooterRsiRocLongThreshold, shooterRsiRocShortThreshold, quickChangeLookbackBars, quckChangeThreshold, curBarChangeThreshold, changeFromPrevBarThreshold, maxBarsToholdParabolicMoveActive, generateLabels)
f_parabolicFiltering Return true when price action indicates a parabolic active movement based on the provided inputs and thresholds.
Parameters:
_activeCount (int)
long (bool)
shooterRsi (float)
shooterRsiLongThreshold (float)
shooterRsiShortThreshold (float)
fiveMinuteRsi (float)
fiveMinRsiLongThreshold (float)
fiveMinRsiShortThreshold (float)
shooterRsiRoc (float)
shooterRsiRocLongThreshold (float)
shooterRsiRocShortThreshold (float)
quickChangeLookbackBars (int)
quckChangeThreshold (int)
curBarChangeThreshold (int)
changeFromPrevBarThreshold (int)
maxBarsToholdParabolicMoveActive (int)
generateLabels (bool)
rsiValid(rsi, buyThreshold, sellThreshold)
rsiValid Returns true if the provided RSI value is withing the associated threshold. For the unused threshold set it to na
Parameters:
rsi (float)
buyThreshold (float)
sellThreshold (float)
squezeBands(source, length)
squezeBands Returns the squeeze bands momentum color of current source series input
Parameters:
source (float)
length (int)
f_momentumOscilator(source, length, transperency)
f_momentumOscilator Returns the squeeze pro momentum value and bar color states of the series input
Parameters:
source (float)
length (int)
transperency (int)
f_getLookbackExtreme(lowSeries, highSeries, lbBars, long)
f_getLookbackExtreme Return the highest high or lowest low over the look back window
Parameters:
lowSeries (float)
highSeries (float)
lbBars (int)
long (bool)
f_getInitialMoveTarget(lbExtreme, priveMoveOffset, long)
f_getInitialMoveTarget Return the point delta required to achieve an initial rifle move (X points over Y lookback)
Parameters:
lbExtreme (float)
priveMoveOffset (int)
long (bool)
isSymbolSupported(sym)
isSymbolSupported Return true if provided symbol is one of the supported DOW Rifle Indicator symbols
Parameters:
sym (string)
getBasePrice(price)
getBasePrice Returns integer portion of provided float
Parameters:
price (float)
getLastTwoDigitsOfPrice(price)
getBasePrice Returns last two integer numerals of provided float value
Parameters:
price (float)
getNextLevelDown(price, lowestLevel, middleLevel, highestLevel)
getNextLevelDown Returns the next level above the provided price value
Parameters:
price (float)
lowestLevel (float)
middleLevel (float)
highestLevel (float)
getNextLevelUp(price, lowestLevel, middleLevel, highestLevel)
getNextLevelUp Returns the next level below the provided price value
Parameters:
price (float)
lowestLevel (float)
middleLevel (float)
highestLevel (float)
isALevel(price, lowestLevel, middleLevel, highestLevel)
isALevel Returns true if the provided price is onve of the specified levels
Parameters:
price (float)
lowestLevel (float)
middleLevel (float)
highestLevel (float)
getClosestLevel(price, lowestLevel, middleLevel, highestLevel)
getClosestLevel Returns the level closest to the price value provided
Parameters:
price (float)
lowestLevel (float)
middleLevel (float)
highestLevel (float)
f_fillSetupTableCell(_table, _col, _row, _text, _bgcolor, _txtcolor, _text_size)
f_fillSetupTableCell Helper function to fill a setup table celll
Parameters:
_table (table)
_col (int)
_row (int)
_text (string)
_bgcolor (color)
_txtcolor (color)
_text_size (string)
f_fillSetupTableRow(_table, _row, _col0Str, _col1Str, _col2Str, _bgcolor, _textColor, _textSize)
f_fillSetupTableRow Helper function to fill a setup table row
Parameters:
_table (table)
_row (int)
_col0Str (string)
_col1Str (string)
_col2Str (string)
_bgcolor (color)
_textColor (color)
_textSize (string)
f_addBlankRow(_table, _row)
f_addBlankRow Helper function to fill a setup table row with empty values
Parameters:
_table (table)
_row (int)
f_updateVersionTable(versionTable, versionStr, versionDateStr)
f_updateVersionTable Helper function to fill the version table with provided values
Parameters:
versionTable (table)
versionStr (string)
versionDateStr (string)
f_updateSetupTable(_table, parabolicMoveActive, initialMoveTargetOffset, initialMoveAchieved, shooterRsi, shooterRsiValid, rsiRocEnterThreshold, shooterRsiRoc, fiveMinuteRsi, fiveMinuteRsiValid, requireValid5MinuteRsiForEntry, stallLevelOffset, stallLevelExceeded, stallTargetOffset, recoverStallLevelValid, curBarChangeValid, volumeRoc, volumeRocThreshold, enableVolumeRocForTrigger, tradeActive, entryPrice, curCloseOffset, curSymCashDelta, djiCashDelta, showDjiDelta, longIndicator, fontSize)
f_updateSetupTable Manages writing current data to the setup table
Parameters:
_table (table)
parabolicMoveActive (bool)
initialMoveTargetOffset (float)
initialMoveAchieved (bool)
shooterRsi (float)
shooterRsiValid (bool)
rsiRocEnterThreshold (float)
shooterRsiRoc (float)
fiveMinuteRsi (float)
fiveMinuteRsiValid (bool)
requireValid5MinuteRsiForEntry (bool)
stallLevelOffset (float)
stallLevelExceeded (bool)
stallTargetOffset (float)
recoverStallLevelValid (bool)
curBarChangeValid (bool)
volumeRoc (float)
volumeRocThreshold (float)
enableVolumeRocForTrigger (bool)
tradeActive (bool)
entryPrice (float)
curCloseOffset (float)
curSymCashDelta (float)
djiCashDelta (float)
showDjiDelta (bool)
longIndicator (bool)
fontSize (string)
Smarter Money Flow Divergence Detector [PhenLabs]📊 Smarter Money Flow Divergence Detector
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
SMFD was developed to help give you guys a better ability to “read” what is going on behind the scenes without directly having access to that level of data. SMFD is an enhanced divergence detection indicator that identifies money flow patterns from advanced volume analysis and price action correspondence. The detection portion of this indicator combines intelligent money flow calculations with multi timeframe volume analysis to help you see hidden accumulation and distribution phases before major price movements occur.
The indicator measures institutional trading activity by looking at volume surges, price volume dynamics, and the factors of momentum to construct an overall picture of market sentiment. It’s built to assist traders in identifying high probability entries by identifying if smart money is positioning against price action.
🚀 Points of Innovation
● Advanced Smart Money Flow algorithm with volume spike detection and large trade weighting
● Multi timeframe volume analysis for enhanced institutional activity detection
● Dynamic overbought/oversold zones that adapt to current market conditions
● Enhanced divergence detection with pivot confirmation and strength validation
● Color themes with customizable visual styling options
● Real time institutional bias tracking through accumulation/distribution analysis
🔧 Core Components
● Smart Money Flow Calculation: Combines price momentum, volume expansion, and VWAP analysis
● Institutional Bias Oscillator: Tracks accumulation/distribution patterns with volume pressure analysis
● Enhanced Divergence Engine: Detects bullish/bearish divergences with multiple confirmation factors
● Dynamic Zone Detection: Automatically adjusts overbought/oversold levels based on market volatility
● Volume Pressure Analysis: Measures buying vs selling pressure over configurable periods
● Multi factor Signal System: Generates entries with trend alignment and strength validation
🔥 Key Features
● Smart Money Flow Period: Configurable calculation period for institutional activity detection
● Volume Spike Threshold: Adjustable multiplier for detecting unusual institutional volume
● Large Trade Weight: Emphasis factor for high volume periods in flow calculations
● Pivot Detection: Customizable lookback period for accurate divergence identification
● Signal Sensitivity: Three tier system (Conservative/Medium/Aggressive) for signal generation
● Themes: Four color schemes optimized for different chart backgrounds
🎨 Visualization
● Main Oscillator: Line, Area, or Histogram display styles with dynamic color coding
● Institutional Bias Line: Real time tracking of accumulation/distribution phases
● Dynamic Zones: Adaptive overbought/oversold boundaries with gradient fills
● Divergence Lines: Automatic drawing of bullish/bearish divergence connections
● Entry Signals: Clear BUY/SELL labels with signal strength indicators
● Information Panel: Real time statistics and status updates in customizable positions
📖 Usage Guidelines
Algorithm Settings
● Smart Money Flow Period
○ Default: 20
○ Range: 5-100
○ Description: Controls the calculation period for institutional flow analysis.
Higher values provide smoother signals but reduce responsiveness to recent activity
● Volume Spike Threshold
○ Default: 1.8
○ Range: 1.0-5.0
○ Description: Multiplier for detecting unusual volume activity indicating institutional participation. Higher values require more extreme volume for detection
● Large Trade Weight
○ Default: 2.5
○ Range: 1.5-5.0
○ Description: Weight applied to high volume periods in smart money calculations. Increases emphasis on institutional sized transactions
Divergence Detection
● Pivot Detection Period
○ Default: 12
○ Range: 5-50
○ Description: Bars to analyze for pivot high/low identification.
Affects divergence accuracy and signal frequency
● Minimum Divergence Strength
○ Default: 0.25
○ Range: 0.1-1.0
○ Description: Required price change percentage for valid divergence patterns.
Higher values filter out weaker signals
✅ Best Use Cases
● Trading with intraday to daily timeframes for institutional position identification
● Confirming trend reversals when divergences align with support/resistance levels
● Entry timing in trending markets when institutional bias supports the direction
● Risk management by avoiding trades against strong institutional positioning
● Multi timeframe analysis combining short term signals with longer term bias
⚠️ Limitations
● Requires sufficient volume for accurate institutional detection in low volume markets
● Divergence signals may have false positives during highly volatile news events
● Best performance on liquid markets with consistent institutional participation
● Lagging nature of volume based calculations may delay signal generation
● Effectiveness reduced during low participation holiday periods
💡 What Makes This Unique
● Multi Factor Analysis: Combines volume, price, and momentum for comprehensive institutional detection
● Adaptive Zones: Dynamic overbought/oversold levels that adjust to market conditions
● Volume Intelligence: Advanced algorithms identify institutional sized transactions
● Professional Visualization: Multiple display styles with customizable themes
● Confirmation System: Multiple validation layers reduce false signal generation
🔬 How It Works
1. Volume Analysis Phase:
● Analyzes current volume against historical averages to identify institutional activity
● Applies multi timeframe analysis for enhanced detection accuracy
● Calculates volume pressure through buying vs selling momentum
2. Smart Money Flow Calculation:
● Combines typical price with volume weighted analysis
● Applies institutional trade weighting for high volume periods
● Generates directional flow based on price momentum and volume expansion
3. Divergence Detection Process:
● Identifies pivot highs/lows in both price and indicator values
● Validates divergence strength against minimum threshold requirements
● Confirms signals through multiple technical factors before generation
💡 Note: This indicator works best when combined with proper risk management and position sizing. The institutional bias component helps identify market sentiment shifts, while divergence signals provide specific entry opportunities. For optimal results, use on liquid markets with consistent institutional participation and combine with additional technical analysis methods.
Faster Heikin AshiFaster Heikin Ashi
The Faster Heikin Ashi improves traditional Heikin Ashi candles by introducing advanced weighting mechanisms and lag reduction techniques. While maintaining the price smoothing benefits of standard Heikin Ashi, this enhanced version delivers faster signals and responsiveness.
Key Features
Unified Responsiveness Control
Single parameter (0.1 - 1.0) controls all responsiveness aspects
Eliminates conflicting settings found in other enhanced HA indicators
Intuitive scaling from conservative (0.1) to highly responsive (1.0)
Advanced Weighted Calculations
Smart Close Weighting: Close prices receive 2-3x more influence for faster trend detection
Dynamic OHLC Processing: All price components are intelligently weighted based on responsiveness setting
Balanced High/Low Emphasis: Maintains price level accuracy while improving speed
Enhanced Open Calculation
Transition Speed: Open prices "catch up" to market movements faster
Lag Reduction Algorithm: Eliminates the typical delay in Heikin Ashi open calculations
Smooth Integration: Maintains visual continuity while improving responsiveness
Four-Color Scheme
- 🟢 **Lime**: Strong bullish momentum
- 🔴 **Red**: Strong bearish momentum
- 🟢 **Green**: Moderate bullish
- 🔴 **Maroon**: Moderate bearish
How It Works
Traditional Heikin Ashi smooths price action but often lags behind real market movements. This enhanced version:
1. Weights price components based on their predictive value
2. Accelerates trend transitions through advanced open calculations
3. Scales all enhancements through a single responsiveness parameter
4. Maintains smoothing benefits while reducing lag
Responsiveness (0.1 - 1.0)
0.1 - 0.3: Conservative, maximum smoothing
0.4 - 0.6: Balanced, good for swing trading and trend following
0.7 - 1.0: Aggressive, fast signals, suitable for scalping and active trading
Lorentzian Classification - Advanced Trading DashboardLorentzian Classification - Relativistic Market Analysis
A Journey from Theory to Trading Reality
What began as fascination with Einstein's relativity and Lorentzian geometry has evolved into a practical trading tool that bridges theoretical physics and market dynamics. This indicator represents months of wrestling with complex mathematical concepts, debugging intricate algorithms, and transforming abstract theory into actionable trading signals.
The Theoretical Foundation
Lorentzian Distance in Market Space
Traditional Euclidean distance treats all feature differences equally, but markets don't behave uniformly. Lorentzian distance, borrowed from spacetime geometry, provides a more nuanced similarity measure:
d(x,y) = Σ ln(1 + |xi - yi|)
This logarithmic formulation naturally handles:
Scale invariance: Large price moves don't overwhelm small but significant patterns
Outlier robustness: Extreme values are dampened rather than dominating
Non-linear relationships: Captures market behavior better than linear metrics
K-Nearest Neighbors with Relativistic Weighting
The algorithm searches historical market states for patterns similar to current conditions. Each neighbor receives weight inversely proportional to its Lorentzian distance:
w = 1 / (1 + distance)
This creates a "gravitational" effect where closer patterns have stronger influence on predictions.
The Implementation Challenge
Creating meaningful market features required extensive experimentation:
Price Features: Multi-timeframe momentum (1, 2, 3, 5, 8 bar lookbacks) Volume Features: Relative volume analysis against 20-period average
Volatility Features: ATR and Bollinger Band width normalization Momentum Features: RSI deviation from neutral and MACD/price ratio
Each feature undergoes min-max normalization to ensure equal weighting in distance calculations.
The Prediction Mechanism
For each current market state:
Feature Vector Construction: 12-dimensional representation of market conditions
Historical Search: Scan lookback period for similar patterns using Lorentzian distance
Neighbor Selection: Identify K nearest historical matches
Outcome Analysis: Examine what happened N bars after each match
Weighted Prediction: Combine outcomes using distance-based weights
Confidence Calculation: Measure agreement between neighbors
Technical Hurdles Overcome
Array Management: Complex indexing to prevent look-ahead bias
Distance Calculations: Optimizing nested loops for performance
Memory Constraints: Balancing lookback depth with computational limits
Signal Filtering: Preventing clustering of identical signals
Advanced Dashboard System
Main Control Panel
The primary dashboard provides real-time market intelligence:
Signal Status: Current prediction with confidence percentage
Neighbor Analysis: How many historical patterns match current conditions
Market Regime: Trend strength, volatility, and volume analysis
Temporal Context: Real-time updates with timestamp
Performance Analytics
Comprehensive tracking system monitors:
Win Rate: Percentage of successful predictions
Signal Count: Total predictions generated
Streak Analysis: Current winning/losing sequence
Drawdown Monitoring: Maximum equity decline
Sharpe Approximation: Risk-adjusted performance estimate
Risk Assessment Panel
Multi-dimensional risk analysis:
RSI Positioning: Overbought/oversold conditions
ATR Percentage: Current volatility relative to price
Bollinger Position: Price location within volatility bands
MACD Alignment: Momentum confirmation
Confidence Heatmap
Visual representation of prediction reliability:
Historical Confidence: Last 10 periods of prediction certainty
Strength Analysis: Magnitude of prediction values over time
Pattern Recognition: Color-coded confidence levels for quick assessment
Input Parameters Deep Dive
Core Algorithm Settings
K Nearest Neighbors (1-20): More neighbors create smoother but less responsive signals. Optimal range 5-8 for most markets.
Historical Lookback (50-500): Deeper history improves pattern recognition but reduces adaptability. 100-200 bars optimal for most timeframes.
Feature Window (5-30): Longer windows capture more context but reduce sensitivity. Match to your trading timeframe.
Feature Selection
Price Changes: Essential for momentum and reversal detection Volume Profile: Critical for institutional activity recognition Volatility Measures: Key for regime change detection Momentum Indicators: Vital for trend confirmation
Signal Generation
Prediction Horizon (1-20): How far ahead to predict. Shorter horizons for scalping, longer for swing trading.
Signal Threshold (0.5-0.9): Confidence required for signal generation. Higher values reduce false signals but may miss opportunities.
Smoothing (1-10): EMA applied to raw predictions. More smoothing reduces noise but increases lag.
Visual Design Philosophy
Color Themes
Professional: Corporate blue/red for institutional environments Neon: Cyberpunk cyan/magenta for modern aesthetics
Matrix: Green/red hacker-inspired palette Classic: Traditional trading colors
Information Hierarchy
The dashboard system prioritizes information by importance:
Primary Signals: Largest, most prominent display
Confidence Metrics: Secondary but clearly visible
Supporting Data: Detailed but unobtrusive
Historical Context: Available but not distracting
Trading Applications
Signal Interpretation
Long Signals: Prediction > threshold with high confidence
Look for volume confirmation
- Check trend alignment
- Verify support levels
Short Signals: Prediction < -threshold with high confidence
Confirm with resistance levels
- Check for distribution patterns
- Verify momentum divergence
- Market Regime Adaptation
Trending Markets: Higher confidence in directional signals
Ranging Markets: Focus on reversal signals at extremes
Volatile Markets: Require higher confidence thresholds
Low Volume: Reduce position sizes, increase caution
Risk Management Integration
Confidence-Based Sizing: Larger positions for higher confidence signals
Regime-Aware Stops: Wider stops in volatile regimes
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Align signals across timeframes
Volume Confirmation: Require volume support for major signals
Originality and Innovation
This indicator represents genuine innovation in several areas:
Mathematical Approach
First application of Lorentzian geometry to market pattern recognition. Unlike Euclidean-based systems, this naturally handles market non-linearities.
Feature Engineering
Sophisticated multi-dimensional feature space combining price, volume, volatility, and momentum in normalized form.
Visualization System
Professional-grade dashboard system providing comprehensive market intelligence in intuitive format.
Performance Tracking
Real-time performance analytics typically found only in institutional trading systems.
Development Journey
Creating this indicator involved overcoming numerous technical challenges:
Mathematical Complexity: Translating theoretical concepts into practical code
Performance Optimization: Balancing accuracy with computational efficiency
User Interface Design: Making complex data accessible and actionable
Signal Quality: Filtering noise while maintaining responsiveness
The result is a tool that brings institutional-grade analytics to individual traders while maintaining the theoretical rigor of its mathematical foundation.
Best Practices
- Parameter Optimization
- Start with default settings and adjust based on:
Market Characteristics: Volatile vs. stable
Trading Timeframe: Scalping vs. swing trading
Risk Tolerance: Conservative vs. aggressive
Signal Confirmation
Never trade on Lorentzian signals alone:
Price Action: Confirm with support/resistance
Volume: Verify with volume analysis
Multiple Timeframes: Check higher timeframe alignment
Market Context: Consider overall market conditions
Risk Management
Position Sizing: Scale with confidence levels
Stop Losses: Adapt to market volatility
Profit Targets: Based on historical performance
Maximum Risk: Never exceed 2-3% per trade
Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or guarantee profitable trading results. The Lorentzian classification system reveals market patterns but cannot predict future price movements with certainty. Always use proper risk management, conduct your own analysis, and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Market dynamics are inherently uncertain, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This tool should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy, not as a standalone solution.
Bringing the elegance of relativistic geometry to market analysis through sophisticated pattern recognition and intuitive visualization.
Thank you for sharing the idea. You're more than a follower, you're a leader!
@vasanthgautham1221
Trade with precision. Trade with insight.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
PhenLabs - Market Fluid Dynamics📊 Market Fluid Dynamics -
Version: PineScript™ v6
📌 Description
The Market Fluid Dynamics - Phen indicator is a new thinking regarding market analysis by modeling price action, volume, and volatility using a fluid system. It attempts to offer traders control over more profound market forces, such as momentum (speed), resistance (thickness), and buying/selling pressure. By visualizing such dynamics, the script allows the traders to decide on the prevailing market flow, its power, likely continuations, and zones of calmness and chaos, and thereby allows improved decision-making.
This measure avoids the usual difficulty of reconciling multiple, often contradictory, market indications by including them within a single overarching model. It moves beyond traditional binary indicators by providing a multi-dimensional view of market behavior, employing fluid dynamic analogs to describe complex interactions in an accessible manner.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Integrated Fluid Dynamics Model: Combines velocity, viscosity, pressure, and turbulence into a single indicator.
Normalized Metrics: Uses ATR and other normalization techniques for consistent readings across different assets and timeframes.
Dynamic Flow Visualization: Main flow line changes color and intensity based on direction and strength.
Turbulence Background: Visually represents market stability with a gradient background, from calm to turbulent.
Comprehensive Dashboard: Provides an at-a-glance summary of key fluid dynamic metrics.
Multi-Layer Smoothing: Employs several layers of EMA smoothing for a clearer, more responsive main flow line.
🔧 Core Components
Velocity Component: Measures price momentum (first derivative of price), normalized by ATR. It indicates the speed and direction of price changes.
Viscosity Component: Represents market resistance to price changes, derived from ATR relative to its historical average. Higher viscosity suggests it’s harder for prices to move.
Pressure Component: Quantifies the force created by volume and price range (close - open), normalized by ATR. It reflects buying or selling pressure.
Turbulence Detection: Calculates a Reynolds number equivalent to identify market stability, ranging from laminar (stable) to turbulent (chaotic).
Main Flow Indicator: Combines the above components, applying sensitivity and smoothing, to generate a primary signal of market direction and strength.
🔥 Key Features
Advanced Smoothing Algorithm: Utilizes multiple EMA layers on the raw flow calculation for a fluid and responsive main flow line, reducing noise while maintaining sensitivity.
Gradient Flow Coloring: The main flow line dynamically changes color from light to deep blue for bullish flow and light to deep red for bearish flow, with intensity reflecting flow strength. This provides an immediate visual cue of market sentiment and momentum.
Turbulence Level Background: The chart background changes color based on calculated turbulence (from calm gray to vibrant orange), offering an intuitive understanding of market stability and potential for erratic price action.
Informative Dashboard: A customizable on-screen table displays critical metrics like Flow State, Flow Strength, Market Viscosity, Turbulence, Pressure Force, Flow Acceleration, and Flow Continuity, allowing traders to quickly assess current market conditions.
Configurable Lookback and Sensitivity: Users can adjust the base lookback period for calculations and the sensitivity of the flow to viscosity, tailoring the indicator to different trading styles and market conditions.
Alert Conditions: Pre-defined alerts for flow direction changes (positive/negative crossover of zero line) and detection of high turbulence states.
🎨 Visualization
Main Flow Line: A smoothed line plotted below the main chart, colored blue for bullish flow and red for bearish flow. The intensity of the color (light to dark) indicates the strength of the flow. This line crossing the zero line can signal a change in market direction.
Zero Line: A dotted horizontal line at the zero level, serving as a baseline to gauge whether the market flow is positive (bullish) or negative (bearish).
Turbulence Background: The indicator pane’s background color changes based on the calculated turbulence level. A calm, almost transparent gray indicates low turbulence (laminar flow), while a more vibrant, semi-transparent orange signifies high turbulence. This helps traders visually assess market stability.
Dashboard Table: An optional table displayed on the chart, showing key metrics like ‘Flow State’, ‘Flow Strength’, ‘Market Viscosity’, ‘Turbulence’, ‘Pressure Force’, ‘Flow Acceleration’, and ‘Flow Continuity’ with their current values and qualitative descriptions (e.g., ‘Bullish Flow’, ‘Laminar (Stable)’).
📖 Usage Guidelines
Setting Categories
Show Dashboard - Default: true; Range: true/false; Description: Toggles the visibility of the Market Fluid Dynamics dashboard on the chart. Enable to see key metrics at a glance.
Base Lookback Period - Default: 14; Range: 5 - (no upper limit, practical limits apply); Description: Sets the primary lookback period for core calculations like velocity, ATR, and volume SMA. Shorter periods make the indicator more sensitive to recent price action, while longer periods provide a smoother, slower signal.
Flow Sensitivity - Default: 0.5; Range: 0.1 - 1.0 (step 0.1); Description: Adjusts how much the market viscosity dampens the raw flow. A lower value means viscosity has less impact (flow is more sensitive to raw velocity/pressure), while a higher value means viscosity has a greater dampening effect.
Flow Smoothing - Default: 5; Range: 1 - 20; Description: Controls the length of the EMA smoothing applied to the main flow line. Higher values result in a smoother flow line but with more lag; lower values make it more responsive but potentially noisier.
Dashboard Position - Default: ‘Top Right’; Range: ‘Top Right’, ‘Top Left’, ‘Bottom Right’, ‘Bottom Left’, ‘Middle Right’, ‘Middle Left’; Description: Determines the placement of the dashboard on the chart.
Header Size - Default: ‘Normal’; Range: ‘Tiny’, ‘Small’, ‘Normal’, ‘Large’, ‘Huge’; Description: Sets the text size for the dashboard header.
Values Size - Default: ‘Small’; Range: ‘Tiny’, ‘Small’, ‘Normal’, ‘Large’; Description: Sets the text size for the metric values in the dashboard.
✅ Best Use Cases
Trend Identification: Identifying the dominant market flow (bullish or bearish) and its strength to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Momentum Confirmation: Using the flow strength and acceleration to confirm the conviction behind price movements.
Volatility Assessment: Utilizing the turbulence metric to gauge market stability, helping to adjust position sizing or avoid choppy conditions.
Reversal Spotting: Watching for divergences between price and flow, or crossovers of the main flow line above/below the zero line, as potential reversal signals, especially when combined with changes in pressure or viscosity.
Swing Trading: Leveraging the smoothed flow line to capture medium-term market swings, entering when flow aligns with the desired trade direction and exiting when flow weakens or reverses.
Intraday Scalping: Using shorter lookback periods and higher sensitivity to identify quick shifts in flow and turbulence for short-term trading opportunities, particularly in liquid markets.
⚠️ Limitations
Lagging Nature: Like many indicators based on moving averages and lookback periods, the main flow line can lag behind rapid price changes, potentially leading to delayed signals.
Whipsaws in Ranging Markets: During periods of low volatility or sideways price action (high viscosity, low flow strength), the indicator might produce frequent buy/sell signals (whipsaws) as the flow oscillates around the zero line.
Not a Standalone System: While comprehensive, it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis (e.g., price action, support/resistance levels, other indicators) and not as a sole basis for trading decisions.
Subjectivity in Interpretation: While the dashboard provides quantitative values, the interpretation of “strong” flow, “high” turbulence, or “significant” acceleration can still have a subjective element depending on the trader’s strategy and risk tolerance.
💡 What Makes This Unique
Fluid Dynamics Analogy: Its core strength lies in translating complex market interactions into an intuitive fluid dynamics framework, making concepts like momentum, resistance, and pressure easier to visualize and understand.
Market View: Instead of focusing on a single aspect (like just momentum or just volatility), it integrates multiple factors (velocity, viscosity, pressure, turbulence) to provide a more comprehensive picture of market conditions.
Adaptive Visualization: The dynamic coloring of the flow line and the turbulence background provide immediate, adaptive visual feedback that changes with market conditions.
🔬 How It Works
Price Velocity Calculation: The indicator first calculates price velocity by measuring the rate of change of the closing price over a given ‘lookback’ period. The raw velocity is then normalized by the Average True Range (ATR) of the same lookback period. Normalization enables comparison of momentum between assets or timeframes by scaling for volatility. This is the direction and speed of initial price movement.
Viscosity Calculation: Market ‘viscosity’ or resistance to price movement is determined by looking at the current ATR relative to its longer-term average (SMA of ATR over lookback * 2). The further the current ATR is above its average, the lower the viscosity (less resistance to price movement), and vice-versa. The script inverts this relationship and bounds it so that rising viscosity means more resistance.
Pressure Force Measurement: A ‘pressure’ variable is calculated as a function of the ratio of current volume to its simple moving average, multiplied by the price range (close - open) and normalized by ATR. This is designed to measure the force behind price movement created by volume and intraday price thrusts. This pressure is smoothed by an EMA.
Turbulence State Evaluation: A equivalent ‘Reynolds number’ is calculated by dividing the absolute normalized velocity by the viscosity. This is the proclivity of the market to move in a chaotic or orderly fashion. This ‘reynoldsValue’ is smoothed with an EMA to get the ‘turbulenceState’, which indicates if the market is laminar (stable), transitional, or turbulent.
Main Flow Derivation: The ‘rawFlow’ is calculated by taking the normalized velocity, dampening its impact based on the ‘viscosity’ and user-input ‘sensitivity’, and orienting it by the sign of the smoothed ‘pressureSmooth’. The ‘rawFlow’ is then put through multiple layers of exponential moving average (EMA) smoothing (with ‘smoothingLength’ and derived values) to reach the final ‘mainFlow’ line. The extensive smoothing is designed to give a smooth and clear visualization of the overall market direction and magnitude.
Dashboard Metrics Compilation: Additional metrics like flow acceleration (derivative of mainFlow), and flow continuity (correlation between close and volume) are calculated. All primary components (Flow State, Strength, Viscosity, Turbulence, Pressure, Acceleration, Continuity) are then presented in a user-configurable dashboard for ease of monitoring.
💡 Note:
The “Market Fluid Dynamics - Phen” indicator is designed to offer a unique perspective on market behavior by applying principles from fluid dynamics. It’s most effective when used to understand the underlying forces driving price rather than as a direct buy/sell signal generator in isolation. Experiment with the settings, particularly the ‘Base Lookback Period’, ‘Flow Sensitivity’, and ‘Flow Smoothing’, to find what best suits your trading style and the specific asset you are analyzing. Always combine its insights with robust risk management practices.
BollingerBands MTF | AlchimistOfCrypto🌌 Bollinger Bands – Unveiling Market Volatility Fields 🌌
"The Bollinger Bands, reimagined through quantum mechanics principles, visualizes the probabilistic distribution of price movements within a multi-dimensional volatility field. This indicator employs principles from wave function mathematics where standard deviation creates probabilistic boundaries, similar to electron cloud models in quantum physics. Our implementation features algorithmically enhanced visualization derived from extensive mathematical modeling, creating a dynamic representation of volatility compression and expansion cycles with adaptive glow effects that highlight the critical moments where volatility phase transitions occur."
📊 Professional Trading Application
The Bollinger Bands Quantum transcends traditional volatility measurement with a sophisticated gradient illumination system that reveals the underlying structure of market volatility fields. Scientifically calibrated for multiple timeframes and featuring eight distinct visual themes, it enables traders to perceive volatility contractions and expansions with unprecedented clarity.
⚙️ Indicator Configuration
- Volatility Field Parameters 📏
Python-optimized settings for specific market conditions:
- Period: 20 (default) - The quantum time window for volatility calculation
- StdDev Multiplier: 2.0 - The probabilistic boundary coefficient
- MA Type: SMA/EMA/VWMA/WMA/RMA - The quantum field smoothing algorithm
- Visual Theming 🎨
Eight scientifically designed visual palettes optimized for volatility pattern recognition:
- Neon (default): High-contrast green/red scheme enhancing volatility transition visibility
- Cyan-Magenta: Vibrant palette for maximum volatility boundary distinction
- Yellow-Purple: Complementary colors for enhanced compression/expansion detection
- Specialized themes (Green-Red, Forest Green, Blue Ocean, Orange-Red, Grayscale): Each calibrated for different market environments
- Opacity Control 🔍
- Variable transparency system (0-100) allowing seamless integration with price action
- Adaptive glow effect that intensifies during volatility phase transitions
- Quantum field visualization that reveals the probabilistic nature of price movements
🚀 How to Use
1. Select Visualization Parameters ⏰: Adjust period and standard deviation to match market conditions
2. Choose MA Type 🎚️: Select the appropriate smoothing algorithm for your trading strategy
3. Select Visual Theme 🌈: Choose a color scheme that enhances your personal pattern recognition
4. Adjust Opacity 🔎: Fine-tune visualization intensity to complement your chart analysis
5. Identify Volatility Phases ✅: Monitor band width to detect compression (pre-breakout) and expansion (trend)
6. Trade with Precision 🛡️: Enter during band contraction for breakouts, or trade mean reversion using band boundaries
7. Manage Risk Dynamically 🔐: Use band width as volatility-based position sizing parameter
Machine Learning RSI ║ BullVisionOverview:
Introducing the Machine Learning RSI with KNN Adaptation – a cutting-edge momentum indicator that blends the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI) with machine learning principles. By leveraging K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), this indicator aims at identifying historical patterns that resemble current market behavior and uses this context to refine RSI readings with enhanced sensitivity and responsiveness.
Unlike traditional RSI models, which treat every market environment the same, this version adapts in real-time based on how similar past conditions evolved, offering an analytical edge without relying on predictive assumptions.
Key Features:
🔁 KNN-Based RSI Refinement
This indicator uses a machine learning algorithm (K-Nearest Neighbors) to compare current RSI and price action characteristics to similar historical conditions. The resulting RSI is weighted accordingly, producing a dynamically adjusted value that reflects historical context.
📈 Multi-Feature Similarity Analysis
Pattern similarity is calculated using up to five customizable features:
RSI level
RSI momentum
Volatility
Linear regression slope
Price momentum
Users can adjust how many features are used to tailor the behavior of the KNN logic.
🧠 Machine Learning Weight Control
The influence of the machine learning model on the final RSI output can be fine-tuned using a simple slider. This lets you blend traditional RSI and machine learning-enhanced RSI to suit your preferred level of adaptation.
🎛️ Adaptive Filtering
Additional smoothing options (Kalman Filter, ALMA, Double EMA) can be applied to the RSI, offering better visual clarity and helping to reduce noise in high-frequency environments.
🎨 Visual & Accessibility Settings
Custom color palettes, including support for color vision deficiencies, ensure that trend coloring remains readable for all users. A built-in neon mode adds high-contrast visuals to improve RSI visibility across dark or light themes.
How It Works:
Similarity Matching with KNN:
At each candle, the current RSI and optional market characteristics are compared to historical bars using a KNN search. The algorithm selects the closest matches and averages their RSI values, weighted by similarity. The more similar the pattern, the greater its influence.
Feature-Based Weighting:
Similarity is determined using normalized values of the selected features, which gives a more refined result than RSI alone. You can choose to use only 1 (RSI) or up to all 5 features for deeper analysis.
Filtering & Blending:
After the machine learning-enhanced RSI is calculated, it can be optionally smoothed using advanced filters to suppress short-term noise or sharp spikes. This makes it easier to evaluate RSI signals in different volatility regimes.
Parameters Explained:
📊 RSI Settings:
Set the base RSI length and select your preferred smoothing method from 10+ moving average types (e.g., EMA, ALMA, TEMA).
🧠 Machine Learning Controls:
Enable or disable the KNN engine
Select how many nearest neighbors to compare (K)
Choose the number of features used in similarity detection
Control how much the machine learning engine affects the RSI calculation
🔍 Filtering Options:
Enable one of several advanced smoothing techniques (Kalman Filter, ALMA, Double EMA) to adjust the indicator’s reactivity and stability.
📏 Threshold Levels:
Define static overbought/oversold boundaries or reference dynamically adjusted thresholds based on historical context identified by the KNN algorithm.
🎨 Visual Enhancements:
Select between trend-following or impulse coloring styles. Customize color palettes to accommodate different types of color blindness. Enable neon-style effects for visual clarity.
Use Cases:
Swing & Trend Traders
Can use the indicator to explore how current RSI readings compare to similar market phases, helping to assess trend strength or potential turning points.
Intraday Traders
Benefit from adjustable filters and fast-reacting smoothing to reduce noise in shorter timeframes while retaining contextual relevance.
Discretionary Analysts
Use the adaptive OB/OS thresholds and visual cues to supplement broader confluence zones or market structure analysis.
Customization Tips:
Higher Volatility Periods: Use more neighbors and enable filtering to reduce noise.
Lower Volatility Markets: Use fewer features and disable filtering for quicker RSI adaptation.
Deeper Contextual Analysis: Increase KNN lookback and raise the feature count to refine pattern recognition.
Accessibility Needs: Switch to Deuteranopia or Monochrome mode for clearer visuals in specific color vision conditions.
Final Thoughts:
The Machine Learning RSI combines familiar momentum logic with statistical context derived from historical similarity analysis. It does not attempt to predict price action but rather contextualizes RSI behavior with added nuance. This makes it a valuable tool for those looking to elevate traditional RSI workflows with adaptive, research-driven enhancements.
Wall Street Ai**Wall Street Ai – Advanced Technical Indicator for Market Analysis**
**Overview**
Wall Street Ai is an advanced, AI-powered technical indicator meticulously engineered to provide traders with in-depth market analysis and insight. By leveraging state-of-the-art artificial intelligence algorithms and comprehensive historical price data, Wall Street Ai is designed to identify significant market turning points and key price levels. Its sophisticated analytical framework enables traders to uncover potential shifts in market momentum, assisting in the formulation of strategic trading decisions while maintaining the highest standards of objectivity and reliability.
**Key Features**
- **Intelligent Pattern Recognition:**
Wall Street Ai employs advanced machine learning techniques to analyze historical price movements and detect recurring patterns. This capability allows it to differentiate between typical market noise and meaningful signals indicative of potential trend reversals.
- **Robust Noise Reduction:**
The indicator incorporates a refined volatility filtering system that minimizes the impact of minor price fluctuations. By isolating significant price movements, it ensures that the analytical output focuses on substantial market shifts rather than ephemeral variations.
- **Customizable Analytical Parameters:**
With a wide range of adjustable settings, Wall Street Ai can be fine-tuned to align with diverse trading strategies and risk appetites. Traders can modify sensitivity, threshold levels, and other critical parameters to optimize the indicator’s performance under various market conditions.
- **Comprehensive Data Analysis:**
By harnessing the power of artificial intelligence, Wall Street Ai performs a deep analysis of historical data, identifying statistically significant highs and lows. This analysis not only reflects past market behavior but also provides valuable insights into potential future turning points, thereby enhancing the predictive aspect of your trading strategy.
- **Adaptive Market Insights:**
The indicator’s dynamic algorithm continuously adjusts to current market conditions, adapting its analysis based on real-time data inputs. This adaptive quality ensures that the indicator remains relevant and effective across different market environments, whether the market is trending strongly, consolidating, or experiencing volatility.
- **Objective and Reliable Analysis:**
Wall Street Ai is built on a foundation of robust statistical methods and rigorous data validation. Its outputs are designed to be objective and free from any exaggerated claims, ensuring that traders receive a clear, unbiased view of market conditions.
**How It Works**
Wall Street Ai integrates advanced AI and deep learning methodologies to analyze a vast array of historical price data. Its core algorithm identifies and evaluates critical market levels by detecting patterns that have historically preceded significant market movements. By filtering out non-essential fluctuations, the indicator emphasizes key price extremes and trend changes that are likely to impact market behavior. The system’s adaptive nature allows it to recalibrate its analytical parameters in response to evolving market dynamics, providing a consistently reliable framework for market analysis.
**Usage Recommendations**
- **Optimal Timeframes:**
For the most effective application, it is recommended to utilize Wall Street Ai on higher timeframe charts, such as hourly (H1) or higher. This approach enhances the clarity of the detected patterns and provides a more comprehensive view of long-term market trends.
- **Market Versatility:**
Wall Street Ai is versatile and can be applied across a broad range of financial markets, including Forex, indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and equities. Its adaptable design ensures consistent performance regardless of the asset class being analyzed.
- **Complementary Analytical Tools:**
While Wall Street Ai provides profound insights into market behavior, it is best utilized in combination with other analytical tools and techniques. Integrating its analysis with additional indicators—such as trend lines, support/resistance levels, or momentum oscillators—can further refine your trading strategy and enhance decision-making.
- **Strategy Testing and Optimization:**
Traders are encouraged to test Wall Street Ai extensively in a simulated trading environment before deploying it in live markets. This allows for thorough calibration of its settings according to individual trading styles and risk management strategies, ensuring optimal performance across diverse market conditions.
**Risk Management and Best Practices**
Wall Street Ai is intended to serve as an analytical tool that supports informed trading decisions. However, as with any technical indicator, its outputs should be interpreted as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes robust risk management practices. Traders should continuously validate the indicator’s findings with additional analysis and maintain a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk control. Regular review and adjustment of trading strategies in response to market changes are essential to mitigate potential losses.
**Conclusion**
Wall Street Ai offers a cutting-edge, AI-driven approach to technical analysis, empowering traders with detailed market insights and the ability to identify potential turning points with precision. Its intelligent pattern recognition, adaptive analytical capabilities, and extensive noise reduction make it a valuable asset for both experienced traders and those new to market analysis. By integrating Wall Street Ai into your trading toolkit, you can enhance your understanding of market dynamics and develop a more robust, data-driven trading strategy—all while adhering to the highest standards of analytical integrity and performance.
Lowess Channel + (RSI) [ChartPrime]The Lowess Channel + (RSI) indicator applies the LOWESS (Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing) algorithm to filter price fluctuations and construct a dynamic channel. LOWESS is a non-parametric regression method that smooths noisy data by fitting weighted linear regressions at localized segments. This technique is widely used in statistical analysis to reveal trends while preserving data structure.
In this indicator, the LOWESS algorithm is used to create a central trend line and deviation-based bands. The midline changes color based on trend direction, and diamonds are plotted when a trend shift occurs. Additionally, an RSI gauge is positioned at the end of the channel to display the current RSI level in relation to the price bands.
lowess_smooth(src, length, bandwidth) =>
sum_weights = 0.0
sum_weighted_y = 0.0
sum_weighted_xy = 0.0
sum_weighted_x2 = 0.0
sum_weighted_x = 0.0
for i = 0 to length - 1
x = float(i)
weight = math.exp(-0.5 * (x / bandwidth) * (x / bandwidth))
y = nz(src , 0)
sum_weights := sum_weights + weight
sum_weighted_x := sum_weighted_x + weight * x
sum_weighted_y := sum_weighted_y + weight * y
sum_weighted_xy := sum_weighted_xy + weight * x * y
sum_weighted_x2 := sum_weighted_x2 + weight * x * x
mean_x = sum_weighted_x / sum_weights
mean_y = sum_weighted_y / sum_weights
beta = (sum_weighted_xy - mean_x * mean_y * sum_weights) / (sum_weighted_x2 - mean_x * mean_x * sum_weights)
alpha = mean_y - beta * mean_x
alpha + beta * float(length / 2) // Centered smoothing
⯁ KEY FEATURES
LOWESS Price Filtering – Smooths price fluctuations to reveal the underlying trend with minimal lag.
Dynamic Trend Coloring – The midline changes color based on trend direction (e.g., bullish or bearish).
Trend Shift Diamonds – Marks points where the midline color changes, indicating a possible trend shift.
Deviation-Based Bands – Expands above and below the midline using ATR-based multipliers for volatility tracking.
RSI Gauge Display – A vertical gauge at the right side of the chart shows the current RSI level relative to the price channel.
Fully Customizable – Users can adjust LOWESS length, band width, colors, and enable or disable the RSI gauge and adjust RSIlength.
⯁ HOW TO USE
Use the LOWESS midline as a trend filter —bullish when green, bearish when purple.
Watch for trend shift diamonds as potential entry or exit signals.
Utilize the price bands to gauge overbought and oversold zones based on volatility.
Monitor the RSI gauge to confirm trend strength—high RSI near upper bands suggests overbought conditions, while low RSI near lower bands indicates oversold conditions.
⯁ CONCLUSION
The Lowess Channel + (RSI) indicator offers a powerful way to analyze market trends by applying a statistically robust smoothing algorithm. Unlike traditional moving averages, LOWESS filtering provides a flexible, responsive trendline that adapts to price movements. The integrated RSI gauge enhances decision-making by displaying momentum conditions alongside trend dynamics. Whether used for trend-following or mean reversion strategies, this indicator provides traders with a well-rounded perspective on market behavior.
*Auto Backtest & Optimize EngineFull-featured Engine for Automatic Backtesting and parameter optimization. Allows you to test millions of different combinations of stop-loss and take profit parameters, including on any connected indicators.
⭕️ Key Futures
Quickly identify the optimal parameters for your strategy.
Automatically generate and test thousands of parameter combinations.
A simple Genetic Algorithm for result selection.
Saves time on manual testing of multiple parameters.
Detailed analysis, sorting, filtering and statistics of results.
Detailed control panel with many tooltips.
Display of key metrics: Profit, Win Rate, etc..
Comprehensive Strategy Score calculation.
In-depth analysis of the performance of different types of stop-losses.
Possibility to use to calculate the best Stop-Take parameters for your position.
Ability to test your own functions and signals.
Customizable visualization of results.
Flexible Stop-Loss Settings:
• Auto ━ Allows you to test all types of Stop Losses at once(listed below).
• S.VOLATY ━ Static stop based on volatility (Fixed, ATR, STDEV).
• Trailing ━ Classic trailing stop following the price.
• Fast Trail ━ Accelerated trailing stop that reacts faster to price movements.
• Volatility ━ Dynamic stop based on volatility indicators.
• Chandelier ━ Stop based on price extremes.
• Activator ━ Dynamic stop based on SAR.
• MA ━ Stop based on moving averages (9 different types).
• SAR ━ Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse).
Advanced Take-Profit Options:
• R:R: Risk/Reward ━ sets TP based on SL size.
• T.VOLATY ━ Calculation based on volatility indicators (Fixed, ATR, STDEV).
Testing Modes:
• Stops ━ Cyclical stop-loss testing
• Pivot Point Example ━ Example of using pivot points
• External Example ━ Built-in example how test functions with different parameters
• External Signal ━ Using external signals
⭕️ Usage
━ First Steps:
When opening, select any point on the chart. It will not affect anything until you turn on Manual Start mode (more on this below).
The chart will immediately show the best results of the default Auto mode. You can switch Part's to try to find even better results in the table.
Now you can display any result from the table on the chart by entering its ID in the settings.
Repeat steps 3-4 until you determine which type of Stop Loss you like best. Then set it in the settings instead of Auto mode.
* Example: I flipped through 14 parts before I liked the first result and entered its ID so I could visually evaluate it on the chart.
Then select the stop loss type, choose it in place of Auto mode and repeat steps 3-4 or immediately follow the recommendations of the algorithm.
Now the Genetic Algorithm at the bottom right will prompt you to enter the Parameters you need to search for and select even better results.
Parameters must be entered All at once before they are updated. Enter recommendations strictly in fields with the same names.
Repeat steps 5-6 until there are approximately 10 Part's left or as you like. And after that, easily pour through the remaining Parts and select the best parameters.
━ Example of the finished result.
━ Example of use with Takes
You can also test at the same time along with Take Profit. In this example, I simply enabled Risk/Reward mode and immediately specified in the TP field Maximum RR, Minimum RR and Step. So in this example I can test (3-1) / 0.1 = 20 Takes of different sizes. There are additional tips in the settings.
━
* Soon you will start to understand how the system works and things will become much easier.
* If something doesn't work, just reset the engine settings and start over again.
* Use the tips I have left in the settings and on the Panel.
━ Details:
Sort ━ Sorting results by Score, Profit, Trades, etc..
Filter ━ Filtring results by Score, Profit, Trades, etc..
Trade Type ━ Ability to disable Long\Short but only from statistics.
BackWin ━ Backtest Window Number of Candle the script can test.
Manual Start ━ Enabling it will allow you to call a Stop from a selected point. which you selected when you started the engine.
* If you have a real open position then this mode can help to save good Stop\Take for it.
1 - 9 Сheckboxs ━ Allow you to disable any stop from Auto mode.
Ex Source - Allow you to test Stops/Takes from connected indicators.
Connection guide:
//@version=6
indicator("My script")
rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14)
buy = not na(rsi) and ta.crossover (rsi, 40) // OS = 40
sell = not na(rsi) and ta.crossunder(rsi, 60) // OB = 60
Signal = buy ? +1 : sell ? -1 : 0
plot(Signal, "🔌Connector🔌", display = display.none)
* Format the signal for your indicator in a similar style and then select it in Ex Source.
⭕️ How it Works
Hypothesis of Uniform Distribution of Rare Elements After Mixing.
'This hypothesis states that if an array of N elements contains K valid elements, then after mixing, these valid elements will be approximately uniformly distributed.'
'This means that in a random sample of k elements, the proportion of valid elements should closely match their proportion in the original array, with some random variation.'
'According to the central limit theorem, repeated sampling will result in an average count of valid elements following a normal distribution.'
'This supports the assumption that the valid elements are evenly spread across the array.'
'To test this hypothesis, we can conduct an experiment:'
'Create an array of 1,000,000 elements.'
'Select 1,000 random elements (1%) for validation.'
'Shuffle the array and divide it into groups of 1,000 elements.'
'If the hypothesis holds, each group should contain, on average, 1~ valid element, with minor variations.'
* I'd like to attach more details to My hypothesis but it won't be very relevant here. Since this is a whole separate topic, I will leave the minimum part for understanding the engine.
Practical Application
To apply this hypothesis, I needed a way to generate and thoroughly mix numerous possible combinations. Within Pine, generating over 100,000 combinations presents significant challenges, and storing millions of combinations requires excessive resources.
I developed an efficient mechanism that generates combinations in random order to address these limitations. While conventional methods often produce duplicates or require generating a complete list first, my approach guarantees that the first 10% of possible combinations are both unique and well-distributed. Based on my hypothesis, this sampling is sufficient to determine optimal testing parameters.
Most generators and randomizers fail to accommodate both my hypothesis and Pine's constraints. My solution utilizes a simple Linear Congruential Generator (LCG) for pseudo-randomization, enhanced with prime numbers to increase entropy during generation. I pre-generate the entire parameter range and then apply systematic mixing. This approach, combined with a hybrid combinatorial array-filling technique with linear distribution, delivers excellent generation quality.
My engine can efficiently generate and verify 300 unique combinations per batch. Based on the above, to determine optimal values, only 10-20 Parts need to be manually scrolled through to find the appropriate value or range, eliminating the need for exhaustive testing of millions of parameter combinations.
For the Score statistic I applied all the same, generated a range of Weights, distributed them randomly for each type of statistic to avoid manual distribution.
Score ━ based on Trade, Profit, WinRate, Profit Factor, Drawdown, Sharpe & Sortino & Omega & Calmar Ratio.
⭕️ Notes
For attentive users, a little tricks :)
To save time, switch parts every 3 seconds without waiting for it to load. After 10-20 parts, stop and wait for loading. If the pause is correct, you can switch between the rest of the parts without loading, as they will be cached. This used to work without having to wait for a pause, but now it does slower. This will save a lot of time if you are going to do a deeper backtest.
Sometimes you'll get the error “The scripts take too long to execute.”
For a quick fix you just need to switch the TF or Ticker back and forth and most likely everything will load.
The error appears because of problems on the side of the site because the engine is very heavy. It can also appear if you set too long a period for testing in BackWin or use a heavy indicator for testing.
Manual Start - Allow you to Start you Result from any point. Which in turn can help you choose a good stop-stick for your real position.
* It took me half a year from idea to current realization. This seems to be one of the few ways to build something automatic in backtest format and in this particular Pine environment. There are already better projects in other languages, and they are created much easier and faster because there are no limitations except for personal PC. If you see solutions to improve this system I would be glad if you share the code. At the moment I am tired and will continue him not soon.
Also You can use my previosly big Backtest project with more manual settings(updated soon)
Clustering & Divergences (RSI-Stoch-CCI) [Sam SDF-Solutions]The Clustering & Divergences (RSI-Stoch-CCI) indicator is a comprehensive technical analysis tool that consolidates three popular oscillators—Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—into one unified metric called the Score. This Score offers traders an aggregated view of market conditions, allowing them to quickly identify whether the market is oversold, balanced, or overbought.
Functionality:
Oscillator Clustering: The indicator calculates the values of RSI, Stochastic, and CCI using user-defined periods. These oscillator values are then normalized using one of three available methods: MinMax, Z-Score, or Z-Bins.
Score Calculation: Each normalized oscillator value is multiplied by its respective weight (which the user can adjust), and the weighted values are summed to generate an overall Score. This Score serves as a single, interpretable metric representing the combined oscillator behavior.
Market Clustering: The indicator performs clustering on the Score over a configurable window. By dividing the Score range into a set number of clusters (also configurable), the tool visually represents the market’s state. Each cluster is assigned a unique color so that traders can quickly see if the market is trending toward oversold, balanced, or overbought conditions.
Divergence Detection: The script automatically identifies both Regular and Hidden divergences between the price action and the Score. By using pivot detection on both price and Score data, the indicator marks potential reversal signals on the chart with labels and connecting lines. This helps in pinpointing moments when the price and the underlying oscillator dynamics diverge.
Customization Options: Users have full control over the indicator’s behavior. They can adjust:
The periods for each oscillator (RSI, Stochastic, CCI).
The weights applied to each oscillator in the Score calculation.
The normalization method and its manual boundaries.
The number of clusters and whether to invert the cluster order.
Parameters for divergence detection (such as pivot sensitivity and the minimum/maximum bar distance between pivots).
Visual Enhancements:
Depending on the user’s preference, either the Score or the Cluster Index (derived from the clustering process) is plotted on the chart. Additionally, the script changes the color of the price bars based on the identified cluster, providing an at-a-glance visual cue of the current market regime.
Logic & Methodology:
Input Parameters: The script starts by accepting user inputs for clustering settings, oscillator periods, weights, divergence detection, and manual boundary definitions for normalization.
Oscillator Calculation & Normalization: It computes RSI, Stochastic, and CCI values from the price data. These values are then normalized using either the MinMax method (scaling between a lower and upper band) or the Z-Score method (standardizing based on mean and standard deviation), or using Z-Bins for an alternative scaling approach.
Score Computation: Each normalized oscillator is multiplied by its corresponding weight. The sum of these products results in the overall Score that represents the combined oscillator behavior.
Clustering Algorithm: The Score is evaluated over a moving window to determine its minimum and maximum values. Using these values, the script calculates a cluster index that divides the Score into a predefined number of clusters. An option to invert the cluster calculation is provided to adjust the interpretation of the clustering.
Divergence Analysis: The indicator employs pivot detection (using left and right bar parameters) on both the price and the Score. It then compares recent pivot values to detect regular and hidden divergences. When a divergence is found, the script plots labels and optional connecting lines to highlight these key moments on the chart.
Plotting: Finally, based on the user’s selection, the indicator plots either the Score or the Cluster Index. It also overlays manual boundary lines (for the chosen normalization method) and adjusts the bar colors according to the cluster to provide clear visual feedback on market conditions.
_________
By integrating multiple oscillator signals into one cohesive tool, the Clustering & Divergences (RSI-Stoch-CCI) indicator helps traders minimize subjective analysis. Its dynamic clustering and automated divergence detection provide a streamlined method for assessing market conditions and potentially enhancing the accuracy of trading decisions.
For further details on using this indicator, please refer to the guide available at:
Percentage Based ZigZag█ OVERVIEW
The Percentage-Based ZigZag indicator is a custom technical analysis tool designed to highlight significant price reversals while filtering out market noise. Unlike many standard zigzag tools that rely solely on fixed price moves or generic trend-following methods, this indicator uses a configurable percentage threshold to dynamically determine meaningful pivot points. This approach not only adapts to different market conditions but also helps traders distinguish between minor fluctuations and truly significant trend shifts—whether scalping on shorter timeframes or analyzing longer-term trends.
█ KEY FEATURES & ORIGINALITY
Dynamic Pivot Detection
The indicator identifies pivot points by measuring the percentage change from the previous extreme (high or low). Only when this change exceeds a user-defined threshold is a new pivot recognized. This method ensures that only substantial moves are considered, making the indicator robust in volatile or noisy markets.
Enhanced ZigZag Visualization
By connecting significant highs and lows with a continuous line, the indicator creates a clear visual map of price swings. Each pivot point is labelled with the corresponding price and the percentage change from the previous pivot, providing immediate quantitative insight into the magnitude of the move.
Trend Reversal Projections
In addition to marking completed reversals, the script computes and displays potential future reversal points based on the current trend’s momentum. This forecasting element gives traders an advanced look at possible turning points, which can be particularly useful for short-term scalping strategies.
Customizable Visual Settings
Users can tailor the appearance by:
• Setting the percentage threshold to control sensitivity.
• Customizing colors for bullish (e.g., green) and bearish (e.g., red) reversals.
• Enabling optional background color changes that visually indicate the prevailing trend.
█ UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY & CALCULATIONS
Percentage-Based Filtering
The script continuously monitors price action and calculates the relative percentage change from the last identified pivot. A new pivot is confirmed only when the price moves a preset percentage away from this pivot, ensuring that minor fluctuations do not trigger false signals.
Pivot Point Logic
The indicator tracks the highest high and the lowest low since the last pivot. When the price reverses by the required percentage from these extremes, the algorithm:
1 — Labels the point as a significant high or low.
2 — Draws a connecting line from the previous pivot to the current one.
3 — Resets the extreme-tracking for detecting the next move.
Real-Time Reversal Estimation
Building on traditional zigzag methods, the script incorporates a projection calculation. By analyzing the current trend’s strength and recent percentage moves, it estimates where a future reversal might occur, offering traders actionable foresight.
█ HOW TO USE THE INDICATOR
1 — Apply the Indicator
• Add the Percentage-Based ZigZag indicator to your trading chart.
2 — Adjust Settings for Your Market
• Percentage Move – Set a threshold that matches your trading style:
- Lower values for sensitive, high-frequency analysis (ideal for scalping).
- Higher values for filtering out noise on longer timeframes.
• Visual Customization – Choose your preferred colors for bullish and bearish signals and enable background color changes for visual trend cues.
• Reversal Projection – Enable or disable the projection feature to display potential upcoming reversal points.
3 — Interpret the Signals
• ZigZag Lines – White lines trace significant high-to-low or low-to-high movements, visually connecting key swing points.
• Pivot Labels – Each pivot is annotated with the exact price level and percentage change, providing quantitative insight into market momentum.
• Trend Projections – When enabled, projected reversal levels offer insight into where the current trend might change.
4 — Integrate with Your Trading Strategy
• Use the indicator to identify support and resistance zones derived from significant pivots.
• Combine the quantitative data (percentage changes) with your risk management strategy to set optimal stop-loss and take-profit levels.
• Experiment with different threshold settings to adapt the indicator for various instruments or market conditions.
█ CONCLUSION
The Percentage-Based ZigZag indicator goes beyond traditional trend-following tools by filtering out market noise and providing clear, quantifiable insights into price action. With its percentage threshold for pivot detection and real-time reversal projections, this original methodology and customizable feature set offer traders a versatile edge for making informed trading decisions.
Cluster Reversal Zones📌 Cluster Reversal Zones – Smart Market Turning Point Detector
📌 Category : Public (Restricted/Closed-Source) Indicator
📌 Designed for : Traders looking for high-accuracy reversal zones based on price clustering & liquidity shifts.
🔍 Overview
The Cluster Reversal Zones Indicator is an advanced market reversal detection tool that helps traders identify key turning points using a combination of price clustering, order flow analysis, and liquidity tracking. Instead of relying on static support and resistance levels, this tool dynamically adjusts to live market conditions, ensuring traders get the most accurate reversal signals possible.
📊 Core Features:
✅ Real-Time Reversal Zone Mapping – Detects high-probability market turning points using price clustering & order flow imbalance.
✅ Liquidity-Based Support/Resistance Detection – Identifies strong rejection zones based on real-time liquidity shifts.
✅ Order Flow Sensitivity for Smart Filtering – Filters out weak reversals by detecting real market participation behind price movements.
✅ Momentum Divergence for Confirmation – Aligns reversal zones with momentum divergences to increase accuracy.
✅ Adaptive Risk Management System – Adjusts risk parameters dynamically based on volatility and trend state.
🔒 Justification for Mashup
The Cluster Reversal Zones Indicator contains custom-built methodologies that extend beyond traditional support/resistance indicators:
✔ Smart Price Clustering Algorithm: Instead of plotting fixed support/resistance lines, this system analyzes historical price clustering to detect active reversal areas.
✔ Order Flow Delta & Liquidity Shift Sensitivity: The tool tracks real-time order flow data, identifying price zones with the highest accumulation or distribution levels.
✔ Momentum-Based Reversal Validation: Unlike traditional indicators, this tool requires a momentum shift confirmation before validating a potential reversal.
✔ Adaptive Reversal Filtering Mechanism: Uses a combination of historical confluence detection + live market validation to improve accuracy.
🛠️ How to Use:
• Works well for reversal traders, scalpers, and swing traders seeking precise turning points.
• Best combined with VWAP, Market Profile, and Delta Volume indicators for confirmation.
• Suitable for Forex, Indices, Commodities, Crypto, and Stock markets.
🚨 Important Note:
For educational & analytical purposes only.
Ehlers Maclaurin Ultimate Smoother [CT]Ehlers Maclaurin Ultimate Smoother
Introduction
The Ehlers Maclaurin Ultimate Smoother is an innovative enhancement of the classic Ehlers SuperSmoother. By leveraging advanced Maclaurin series approximations, this indicator offers superior market analysis and signal generation.
The indicator combines Ehlers' Ultimate Smoother with Maclaurin series approximations to create a more efficient and accurate smoothing mechanism:
Input price data passes through the initial smoothing phase
Maclaurin series approximates trigonometric functions
Enhanced high-pass filter removes market noise
Final smoothing phase produces the output signal
Why the Maclaurin Approach?
The Maclaurin series is a special form of the Taylor series, centered around 0. It provides an efficient way to approximate complex functions using polynomial terms. In this indicator, we use the Maclaurin approach to improve the sine and cosine functions, resulting in:
Faster Calculations: By using polynomial approximations, we significantly reduce computational complexity.
Improved Stability: The approximation provides a more stable numerical basis for calculations.
Preservation of Precision: Despite the approximation, we maintain the precision needed for price smoothing.
Calculations
The indicator employs several key mathematical components:
Maclaurin Series Approximation:
sin(x) ≈ x - x³/3! + x⁵/5! - x⁷/7! + x⁹/9!
cos(x) ≈ 1 - x²/2! + x⁴/4! - x⁶/6! + x⁸/8!
Smoothing Algorithm:
Uses exponential smoothing with optimized coefficients
Implements high-pass filtering for noise reduction
Applies dynamic weighting based on market conditions
Mathematical Foundation
Utilizes Maclaurin series for trigonometric approximation
Implements Ehlers' smoothing principles
Incorporates advanced filtering techniques
Technical Advantages
Signal Processing:
Lag Reduction: Faster signal detection with less delay.
Noise Filtration: Effective elimination of high-frequency noise.
Precision Enhancement: Preservation of critical price movements.
Adaptive Processing: Dynamic response to market volatility.
Visual Enhancements:
Smart color intensity mapping.
Real-time visualization of trend strength.
Adaptive opacity based on movement significance.
Implementation
Core Configuration:
Plot Type: Choose between the original and the Maclaurin enhanced version.
Length: Default set to 30, optimal for daily timeframes.
hpLength: Default set to 10 for enhanced noise reduction.
Advanced Parameters:
The indicator offers advanced control with:
Dual processing modes (Original/Maclaurin).
Dynamic color intensity system.
Customizable smoothing parameters.
Professional Analysis Tools:
Accurate trend reversal identification.
Advanced support/resistance detection.
Superior performance in volatile markets.
Technical Specifications
Maclaurin Series Implementation:
The indicator employs a 5-term Maclaurin series approximation for both sine and cosine, ensuring efficient and accurate computation.
Performance Metrics
Improved processing efficiency.
Reduced memory utilization.
Increased signal accuracy.
Licensing & Attribution
© 2024 Mupsje aka CasaTropical
Professional Credits
Original Ultimate and SuperSmoother concept: John F. Ehlers
Maclaurin enhancement: Casa Tropical (CT)
www.mathsisfun.com
True Amplitude Envelopes (TAE)The True Envelopes indicator is an adaptation of the True Amplitude Envelope (TAE) method, based on the research paper " Improved Estimation of the Amplitude Envelope of Time Domain Signals Using True Envelope Cepstral Smoothing " by Caetano and Rodet. This indicator aims to create an asymmetric price envelope with strong predictive power, closely following the methodology outlined in the paper.
Due to the inherent limitations of Pine Script, the indicator utilizes a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) in place of the original Cepstral Smoothing technique described in the paper. While this approach was chosen out of necessity rather than superiority, the resulting method is designed to be as effective as possible within the constraints of the Pine environment.
This indicator is ideal for traders seeking an advanced tool to analyze price dynamics, offering insights into potential price movements while working within the practical constraints of Pine Script. Whether used in dynamic mode or with a static setting, the True Envelopes indicator helps in identifying key support and resistance levels, making it a valuable asset in any trading strategy.
Key Features:
Dynamic Mode: The indicator dynamically estimates the fundamental frequency of the price, optimizing the envelope generation process in real-time to capture critical price movements.
High-Pass Filtering: Uses a high-pass filtered signal to identify and smoothly interpolate price peaks, ensuring that the envelope accurately reflects significant price changes.
Kernel Density Estimation: Although implemented as a workaround, the KDE technique allows for flexible and adaptive smoothing of the envelope, aimed at achieving results comparable to the more sophisticated methods described in the original research.
Symmetric and Asymmetric Envelopes: Provides options to select between symmetric and asymmetric envelopes, accommodating various trading strategies and market conditions.
Smoothness Control: Features adjustable smoothness settings, enabling users to balance between responsiveness and the overall smoothness of the envelopes.
The True Envelopes indicator comes with a variety of input settings that allow traders to customize the behavior of the envelopes to match their specific trading needs and market conditions. Understanding each of these settings is crucial for optimizing the indicator's performance.
Main Settings
Source: This is the data series on which the indicator is applied, typically the closing price (close). You can select other price data like open, high, low, or a custom series to base the envelope calculations.
History: This setting determines how much historical data the indicator should consider when calculating the envelopes. A value of 0 will make the indicator process all available data, while a higher value restricts it to the most recent n bars. This can be useful for reducing the computational load or focusing the analysis on recent market behavior.
Iterations: This parameter controls the number of iterations used in the envelope generation algorithm. More iterations will typically result in a smoother envelope, but can also increase computation time. The optimal number of iterations depends on the desired balance between smoothness and responsiveness.
Kernel Style: The smoothing kernel used in the Kernel Density Estimator (KDE). Available options include Sinc, Gaussian, Epanechnikov, Logistic, and Triangular. Each kernel has different properties, affecting how the smoothing is applied. For example, Gaussian provides a smooth, bell-shaped curve, while Epanechnikov is more efficient computationally with a parabolic shape.
Envelope Style: This setting determines whether the envelope should be Static or Dynamic. The Static mode applies a fixed period for the envelope, while the Dynamic mode automatically adjusts the period based on the fundamental frequency of the price data. Dynamic mode is typically more responsive to changing market conditions.
High Q: This option controls the quality factor (Q) of the high-pass filter. Enabling this will increase the Q factor, leading to a sharper cutoff and more precise isolation of high-frequency components, which can help in better identifying significant price peaks.
Symmetric: This setting allows you to choose between symmetric and asymmetric envelopes. Symmetric envelopes maintain an equal distance from the central price line on both sides, while asymmetric envelopes can adjust differently above and below the price line, which might better capture market conditions where upside and downside volatility are not equal.
Smooth Envelopes: When enabled, this setting applies additional smoothing to the envelopes. While this can reduce noise and make the envelopes more visually appealing, it may also decrease their responsiveness to sudden market changes.
Dynamic Settings
Extra Detrend: This setting toggles an additional high-pass filter that can be applied when using a long filter period. The purpose is to further detrend the data, ensuring that the envelope focuses solely on the most recent price oscillations.
Filter Period Multiplier: This multiplier adjusts the period of the high-pass filter dynamically based on the detected fundamental frequency. Increasing this multiplier will lengthen the period, making the filter less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.
Filter Period (Min) and Filter Period (Max): These settings define the minimum and maximum bounds for the high-pass filter period. They ensure that the filter period stays within a reasonable range, preventing it from becoming too short (and overly sensitive) or too long (and too sluggish).
Envelope Period Multiplier: Similar to the filter period multiplier, this adjusts the period for the envelope generation. It scales the period dynamically to match the detected price cycles, allowing for more precise envelope adjustments.
Envelope Period (Min) and Envelope Period (Max): These settings establish the minimum and maximum bounds for the envelope period, ensuring the envelopes remain adaptive without becoming too reactive or too slow.
Static Settings
Filter Period: In static mode, this setting determines the fixed period for the high-pass filter. A shorter period will make the filter more responsive to price changes, while a longer period will smooth out more of the price data.
Envelope Period: This setting specifies the fixed period used for generating the envelopes in static mode. It directly influences how tightly or loosely the envelopes follow the price action.
TAE Smoothing: This controls the degree of smoothing applied during the TAE process in static mode. Higher smoothing values result in more gradual envelope curves, which can be useful in reducing noise but may also delay the envelope’s response to rapid price movements.
Visual Settings
Top Band Color: This setting allows you to choose the color for the upper band of the envelope. This band represents the resistance level in the price action.
Bottom Band Color: Similar to the top band color, this setting controls the color of the lower band, which represents the support level.
Center Line Color: This is the color of the central price line, often referred to as the carrier. It represents the detrended price around which the envelopes are constructed.
Line Width: This determines the thickness of the plotted lines for the top band, bottom band, and center line. Thicker lines can make the envelopes more visible, especially when overlaid on price data.
Fill Alpha: This controls the transparency level of the shaded area between the top and bottom bands. A lower alpha value will make the fill more transparent, while a higher value will make it more opaque, helping to highlight the envelope more clearly.
The envelopes generated by the True Envelopes indicator are designed to provide a more precise and responsive representation of price action compared to traditional methods like Bollinger Bands or Keltner Channels. The core idea behind this indicator is to create a price envelope that smoothly interpolates the significant peaks in price action, offering a more accurate depiction of support and resistance levels.
One of the critical aspects of this approach is the use of a high-pass filtered signal to identify these peaks. The high-pass filter serves as an effective method of detrending the price data, isolating the rapid fluctuations in price that are often lost in standard trend-following indicators. By filtering out the lower frequency components (i.e., the trend), the high-pass filter reveals the underlying oscillations in the price, which correspond to significant peaks and troughs. These oscillations are crucial for accurately constructing the envelope, as they represent the most responsive elements of the price movement.
The algorithm works by first applying the high-pass filter to the source price data, effectively detrending the series and isolating the high-frequency price changes. This filtered signal is then used to estimate the fundamental frequency of the price movement, which is essential for dynamically adjusting the envelope to current market conditions. By focusing on the peaks identified in the high-pass filtered signal, the algorithm generates an envelope that is both smooth and adaptive, closely following the most significant price changes without overfitting to transient noise.
Compared to traditional envelopes and bands, such as Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels, the True Envelopes indicator offers several advantages. Bollinger Bands, which are based on standard deviations, and Keltner Channels, which use the average true range (ATR), both tend to react to price volatility but do not necessarily follow the peaks and troughs of the price with precision. As a result, these traditional methods can sometimes lag behind or fail to capture sudden shifts in price momentum, leading to either false signals or missed opportunities.
In contrast, the True Envelopes indicator, by using a high-pass filtered signal and a dynamic period estimation, adapts more quickly to changes in price behavior. The envelopes generated by this method are less prone to the lag that often affects standard deviation or ATR-based bands, and they provide a more accurate representation of the price's immediate oscillations. This can result in better predictive power and more reliable identification of support and resistance levels, making the True Envelopes indicator a valuable tool for traders looking for a more responsive and precise approach to market analysis.
In conclusion, the True Envelopes indicator is a powerful tool that blends advanced theoretical concepts with practical implementation, offering traders a precise and responsive way to analyze price dynamics. By adapting the True Amplitude Envelope (TAE) method through the use of a Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) and high-pass filtering, this indicator effectively captures the most significant price movements, providing a more accurate depiction of support and resistance levels compared to traditional methods like Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels. The flexible settings allow for extensive customization, ensuring the indicator can be tailored to suit various trading strategies and market conditions.
Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 This is HADES (Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing) : fully data-driven & adaptive exponential smoothing method, that gains all the necessary info directly from data in the most natural way and needs no subjective parameters & no optimizations. It gets applied to data itself -> to fit residuals & one-point forecast errors, all at O(1) algo complexity. I designed it for streaming high-frequency univariate time series data, such as medical sensor readings, orderbook data, tick charts, requests generated by a backend, etc.
The HADES method is:
fit & forecast = a + b * (1 / alpha + T - 1)
T = 0 provides in-sample fit for the current datum, and T + n provides forecast for n datapoints.
y = input time series
a = y, if no previous data exists
b = 0, if no previous data exists
otherwise:
a = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * a
b = alpha * (a - a ) + (1 - alpha) * b
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
len = min(ceil(exp(1 / sig)), available data)
sig = sqrt(Absolute net change in y / Sum of absolute changes in y)
For the start datapoint when both numerator and denominator are zeros, we define 0 / 0 = 1
...
The same set of operations gets applied to the data first, then to resulting fit absolute residuals to build prediction interval, and finally to absolute forecasting errors (from one-point ahead forecast) to build forecasting interval:
prediction interval = data fit +- resoduals fit * k
forecasting interval = data opf +- errors fit * k
where k = multiplier regulating intervals width, and opf = one-point forecasts calculated at each time t
...
How-to:
0) Apply to your data where it makes sense, eg. tick data;
1) Use power transform to compensate for multiplicative behavior in case it's there;
2) If you have complete data or only the data you need, like the full history of adjusted close prices: go to the next step; otherwise, guided by your goal & analysis, adjust the 'start index' setting so the calculations will start from this point;
3) Use prediction interval to detect significant deviations from the process core & make decisions according to your strategy;
4) Use one-point forecast for nowcasting;
5) Use forecasting intervals to ~ understand where the next datapoints will emerge, given the data-generating process will stay the same & lack structural breaks.
I advise k = 1 or 1.5 or 4 depending on your goal, but 1 is the most natural one.
...
Why exponential smoothing at all? Why the double one? Why adaptive? Why not Holt's method?
1) It's O(1) algo complexity & recursive nature allows it to be applied in an online fashion to high-frequency streaming data; otherwise, it makes more sense to use other methods;
2) Double exponential smoothing ensures we are taking trends into account; also, in order to model more complex time series patterns such as seasonality, we need detrended data, and this method can be used to do it;
3) The goal of adaptivity is to eliminate the window size question, in cases where it doesn't make sense to use cumulative moving typical value;
4) Holt's method creates a certain interaction between level and trend components, so its results lack symmetry and similarity with other non-recursive methods such as quantile regression or linear regression. Instead, I decided to base my work on the original double exponential smoothing method published by Rob Brown in 1956, here's the original source , it's really hard to find it online. This cool dude is considered the one who've dropped exponential smoothing to open access for the first time🤘🏻
R&D; log & explanations
If you wanna read this, you gotta know, you're taking a great responsability for this long journey, and it gonna be one hell of a trip hehe
Machine learning, apprentissage automatique, машинное обучение, digital signal processing, statistical learning, data mining, deep learning, etc., etc., etc.: all these are just artificial categories created by the local population of this wonderful world, but what really separates entities globally in the Universe is solution complexity / algorithmic complexity.
In order to get the game a lil better, it's gonna be useful to read the HTES script description first. Secondly, let me guide you through the whole R&D; process.
To discover (not to invent) the fundamental universal principle of what exponential smoothing really IS, it required the review of the whole concept, understanding that many things don't add up and don't make much sense in currently available mainstream info, and building it all from the beginning while avoiding these very basic logical & implementation flaws.
Given a complete time t, and yet, always growing time series population that can't be logically separated into subpopulations, the very first question is, 'What amount of data do we need to utilize at time t?'. Two answers: 1 and all. You can't really gain much info from 1 datum, so go for the second answer: we need the whole dataset.
So, given the sequential & incremental nature of time series, the very first and basic thing we can do on the whole dataset is to calculate a cumulative , such as cumulative moving mean or cumulative moving median.
Now we need to extend this logic to exponential smoothing, which doesn't use dataset length info directly, but all cool it can be done via a formula that quantifies the relationship between alpha (smoothing parameter) and length. The popular formulas used in mainstream are:
alpha = 1 / length
alpha = 2 / (length + 1)
The funny part starts when you realize that Cumulative Exponential Moving Averages with these 2 alpha formulas Exactly match Cumulative Moving Average and Cumulative (Linearly) Weighted Moving Average, and the same logic goes on:
alpha = 3 / (length + 1.5) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with quadratic weights, and
alpha = 4 / (length + 2) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with cubic weghts, and so on...
It all just cries in your shoulder that we need to discover another, native length->alpha formula that leverages the recursive nature of exponential smoothing, because otherwise, it doesn't make sense to use it at all, since the usual CMA and CMWA can be computed incrementally at O(1) algo complexity just as exponential smoothing.
From now on I will not mention 'cumulative' or 'linearly weighted / weighted' anymore, it's gonna be implied all the time unless stated otherwise.
What we can do is to approach the thing logically and model the response with a little help from synthetic data, a sine wave would suffice. Then we can think of relationships: Based on algo complexity from lower to higher, we have this sequence: exponential smoothing @ O(1) -> parametric statistics (mean) @ O(n) -> non-parametric statistics (50th percentile / median) @ O(n log n). Based on Initial response from slow to fast: mean -> median Based on convergence with the real expected value from slow to fast: mean (infinitely approaches it) -> median (gets it quite fast).
Based on these inputs, we need to discover such a length->alpha formula so the resulting fit will have the slowest initial response out of all 3, and have the slowest convergence with expected value out of all 3. In order to do it, we need to have some non-linear transformer in our formula (like a square root) and a couple of factors to modify the response the way we need. I ended up with this formula to meet all our requirements:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length * 2) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 8)
^^ as you can see on the screenshot; where the red line is median, the blue line is the mean, and the purple line is exponential smoothing with the formulas you've just seen, we've met all the requirements.
Now we just have to do the same procedure to discover the length->alpha formula but for double exponential smoothing, which models trends as well, not just level as in single exponential smoothing. For this comparison, we need to use linear regression and quantile regression instead of the mean and median.
Quantile regression requires a non-closed form solution to be solved that you can't really implement in Pine Script, but that's ok, so I made the tests using Python & sklearn:
paste.pics
^^ on this screenshot, you can see the same relationship as on the previous screenshot, but now between the responses of quantile regression & linear regression.
I followed the same logic as before for designing alpha for double exponential smoothing (also considered the initial overshoots, but that's a little detail), and ended up with this formula:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
Btw, given the pattern you see in the resulting formulas for single and double exponential smoothing, if you ever want to do triple (not Holt & Winters) exponential smoothing, you'll need len * 2 , and just len * 1 for quadruple exponential smoothing. I hope that based on this sequence, you see the hint that Maybe 4 rounds is enough.
Now since we've dealt with the length->alpha formula, we can deal with the adaptivity part.
Logically, it doesn't make sense to use a slower-than-O(1) method to generate input for an O(1) method, so it must be something universal and minimalistic: something that will help us measure consistency in our data, yet something far away from statistics and close enough to topology.
There's one perfect entity that can help us, this is fractal efficiency. The way I define fractal efficiency can be checked at the very beginning of the post, what matters is that I add a square root to the formula that is not typically added.
As explained in the description of my metric QSFS , one of the reasons for SQRT-transformed values of fractal efficiency applied in moving window mode is because they start to closely resemble normal distribution, yet with support of (0, 1). Data with this interesting property (normally distributed yet with finite support) can be modeled with the beta distribution.
Another reason is, in infinitely expanding window mode, fractal efficiency of every time series that exhibits randomness tends to infinitely approach zero, sqrt-transform kind of partially neutralizes this effect.
Yet another reason is, the square root might better reflect the dimensional inefficiency or degree of fractal complexity, since it could balance the influence of extreme deviations from the net paths.
And finally, fractals exhibit power-law scaling -> measures like length, area, or volume scale in a non-linear way. Adding a square root acknowledges this intrinsic property, while connecting our metric with the nature of fractals.
---
I suspect that, given analogies and connections with other topics in geometry, topology, fractals and most importantly positive test results of the metric, it might be that the sqrt transform is the fundamental part of fractal efficiency that should be applied by default.
Now the last part of the ballet is to convert our fractal efficiency to length value. The part about inverse proportionality is obvious: high fractal efficiency aka high consistency -> lower window size, to utilize only the last data that contain brand new information that seems to be highly reliable since we have consistency in the first place.
The non-obvious part is now we need to neutralize the side effect created by previous sqrt transform: our length values are too low, and exponentiation is the perfect candidate to fix it since translating fractal efficiency into window sizes requires something non-linear to reflect the fractal dynamics. More importantly, using exp() was the last piece that let the metric shine, any other transformations & formulas alike I've tried always had some weird results on certain data.
That exp() in the len formula was the last piece that made it all work both on synthetic and on real data.
^^ a standalone script calculating optimal dynamic window size
Omg, THAT took time to write. Comment and/or text me if you need
...
"Versace Pip-Boy, I'm a young gun coming up with no bankroll" 👻
∞
