[blackcat] L2 Fibonacci BandsThe concept of the Fibonacci Bands indicator was described by Suri Dudella in his book "Trade Chart Patterns Like the Pros" (Section 8.3, page 149). These bands are derived from Fibonacci expansions based on a fixed moving average, and they display potential areas of support and resistance. Traders can utilize the Fibonacci Bands indicator to identify key price levels and anticipate potential reversals in the market.
To calculate the Fibonacci Bands indicator, three Keltner Channels are applied. These channels help in determining the upper and lower boundaries of the bands. The default Fibonacci expansion levels used are 1.618, 2.618, and 4.236. These levels act as reference points for traders to identify significant areas of support and resistance.
When analyzing the price action, traders can focus on the extreme Fibonacci Bands, which are the upper and lower boundaries of the bands. If prices trade outside of the bands for a few bars and then return inside, it may indicate a potential reversal. This pattern suggests that the price has temporarily deviated from its usual range and could be due for a correction.
To enhance the accuracy of the Fibonacci Bands indicator, traders often use multiple time frames. By aligning short-term signals with the larger time frame scenario, traders can gain a better understanding of the overall market trend. It is generally advised to trade in the direction of the larger time frame to increase the probability of success.
In addition to identifying potential reversals, traders can also use the Fibonacci Bands indicator to determine entry and exit points. Short-term support and resistance levels can be derived from the bands, providing valuable insights for trade decision-making. These levels act as reference points for placing stop-loss orders or taking profits.
Another useful tool for analyzing the trend is the slope of the midband, which is the middle line of the Fibonacci Bands indicator. The midband's slope can indicate the strength and direction of the trend. Traders can monitor the slope to gain insights into the market's momentum and make informed trading decisions.
The Fibonacci Bands indicator is based on the concept of Fibonacci levels, which are support or resistance levels calculated using the Fibonacci sequence. The Fibonacci sequence is a mathematical pattern that follows a specific formula. A central concept within the Fibonacci sequence is the Golden Ratio, represented by the numbers 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. These ratios have been found to occur frequently in nature, architecture, and art.
The Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci (1170-1250) is credited with introducing the Fibonacci sequence to the Western world. Fibonacci noticed that certain ratios could be calculated and that these ratios correspond to "divine ratios" found in various aspects of life. Traders have adopted these ratios in technical analysis to identify potential areas of support and resistance in financial markets.
In conclusion, the Fibonacci Bands indicator is a powerful tool for traders to identify potential reversals, determine entry and exit points, and analyze the overall trend. By combining the Fibonacci Bands with other technical indicators and using multiple time frames, traders can enhance their trading strategies and make more informed decisions in the market.
Pesquisar nos scripts por "N+credit最新动态"
Fisher+ [OSC]The Fisher Transform Indicator is classified as an oscillator, meaning that its value swings above and below a central point. This characteristic allows traders to identify overbought and oversold conditions, providing potential clues about market reversals. As mentioned previously, it is an oscillator so the strength of the move is displayed by how long the fisher line stays above/below zero. Indicator can be used to aid in confluence near supply/demand zones.
White Line = Fisher
Red/Blue Line = Moving Average
--Changes color whether fisher line is above/below the MA
Red/Blue Shaded Line = Moving Average
--Changes color based on a smoothing factor
Red/Blue Shaded Fill = Asset in Overbought/Oversold Conditions
Red/Blue Circles = Asset in Extreme Overbought/Oversold Conditions
Red/Blue Triangles = MACD Signals Below/Above "0"
Divergence Labels = Asset Signaling Divergence
The moving average line will turn red/blue as long as the fisher line is below/above the moving average. The shaded MA line will switch colors based on if it is moving in an up/down trend. The MA can also be used as a signal and treated similar to an oscillator. Market trending conditions will either keep the MA below/above the dashed zero line.
MACD code credited to LazyBear's MACD Leader indicator. It is used to filter out/confirm any signals such as divergences. As long as the MACD Leader line is above both the MACD line and signal lines then it'll signal with with a triangle. MACD divergences will be added at a later time.
SOLANA Performance & Volatility Analysis BB%Overview:
The script provides an in-depth analysis of Solana's performance and volatility. It showcases Solana's price, its inverse relationship, its own volatility, and even juxtaposes it against Bitcoin's 24-hour historical volatility. All of these are presented using the Bollinger Bands Percentage (BB%) methodology to normalise the price and volatility values between 0 and 1.
Key Components:
Inputs:
SOLANA PRICE (SOLUSD): The price of Solana.
SOLANA INVERSE (SOLUSDT.3S): The inverse of Solana's price.
SOLANA VOLATILITY (SOLUSDSHORTS): Volatility for Solana.
BITCOIN 24 HOUR HISTORICAL VOLATILITY (BVOL24H): Bitcoin's volatility over the past 24 hours.
BB Calculations:
The script uses the Bollinger Bands methodology to calculate the mean (SMA) and the standard deviation of the prices and volatilities over a certain period (default is 20 periods). The calculated upper and lower bands help in normalising the values to the range of 0 to 1.
Normalised Metrics Plotting:
For better visualisation and comparative analysis, the normalised values for:
Solana Price
Solana Inverse
Solana Volatility
Bitcoin 24hr Volatility
are plotted with steplines.
Band Plotting:
Bands are plotted at 20%, 40%, 60%, and 80% levels to serve as reference points. The area between the 40% and 60% bands is shaded to highlight the median region.
Colour Coding:
Different colours are used for easy differentiation:
Solana Price: Blue
Solana Inverse: Red
Solana Volatility: Green
Bitcoin 24hr Volatility: White
Licence & Creator:
The script adheres to the Mozilla Public Licence 2.0 and is credited to the author, "Volatility_Vibes".
Works well with Breaks and Retests with Volatility Stop
Feigenbaum ProjectionsThe theory of price delivery per Feigenbaum projections is credited to TRSTNGLRD, this indicator aims to aid traders from all backgrounds to utilize projections for determination of potential future price moves.
What follows is the simplest description of where to anchor the projection:
As price delivers and clears higher high (buy side liquidity) then reverses to clear most recent low (sell side liquidity), this becomes the anchorage point for the Feigenbaum projection and is referred to as perturbation. The start and end points for the projection should be only those candle bodies that wholly exist within the range within the high and low that were cleared by the perturbation, this range of candle bodies is to be considered the "initial condition". Structure that appears as a broadening formation is one such price delivery occurrence that can be utilized with these projections.
The projected zones are all pre-configured by TRSTNs specifications per Feigenbaum but can be adjusted if the need arises.
Price is expected to expand beyond the initial condition and into the negative and positive target zones, accuracy diminishes with further expansion and reevaluation should occur when a new perturbation is discovered.
It's recommended to explore various timeframes to find a perturbation by which to anchor the next Feigenbaum projection.
I'll do my best to update this description with time as more discoveries are made and TRSTNGLRD provides more guidance and feedback on this indicator.
Pythagorean Moving Averages (and more)When you think of the question "take the mean of this dataset", you'd normally think of using the arithmetic mean because usually the norm is equal to 1; however, there are an infinite number of other types of means depending on the function norm (p).
Pythagoras' is credited for the main types of means: his harmonic mean, his geometric mean, and his arithmetic mean:
Harmonic Average (p = -1):
- Take the reciprocal of all the numbers in the dataset, add them all together, divide by the amount of numbers added together, then take the reciprocal of the final answer.
Geometric Average (p = 0):
- Multiply all the numbers in the dataset, then take the nth root where n is equal to the amount of number you multiplied together.
Arithmetic Mean (p = 1):
- Add all the numbers in the dataset, then divide by the amount of numbers you added by.
A couple other means included in this script were the quadratic mean (p = 2) and the cubic mean (p = 3).
Quadratic Mean (p = 2):
- Square every number in the dataset, then divide by the amount of numbers your added by, then take the square root.
Cubic Mean (p = 3):
- Cube every number in the dataset, then divide by the amount of numbers you added by, then take the cube root.
There are an infinite number of means for every scenario of p, but they begin to follow a pattern after p = 3.
Read more:
www.cs.uni.edu
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
Note : I added the functions for the quadratic mean and cubic mean, but since market charts don't have those types of graphs, the functions don't usually work. It's the same reason why sometimes you'll see the harmonic average not working.
Disclaimer : This is not financial or mathematical advice, please look for someone certified before making any decisions.
VP and POCThis code is credited to juliangonzaconde. Have taken his help to modify his beautiful creation.
Volume profile is a key study when comes to understanding the auction trading process. Volume Profiles will show you exactly how much volume, as well as relative volume, occurred at each price as well as the exact number of contracts for the entire session. It is a visualization tool to understand the high activity zone and low activity zone.
Volume profile measures the confidence of the traders in the market. From short term trading perspective monitoring the developing volume profile in realtime make more sense to track current market participation behavior to take better trading decisions.
Hope this helps you in trading on daily timeframe.
Happy Trading.
Market Trend using First Derivative of MAs + Volatility Based on Smooth First Derivative Indicator by tbiktag
Volatility also from another public TV script, forgot which one though, sorry if this is yours and I haven't credited your work, let me know if it is and I'll reference it properly.
About this indicator:
Estimates whether market is trending up, down or sideways by adding the slope (first derivatives) of a fast & slow MA. Uptrend = Green, Downtrend = Red, Sideways = Yellow
Uses a minimum slope percentile to determine threshold for uptrend, downtrend & sideways. Definitely adjust this when changing timeframes, for BTCUSD at 1 hour timeframe a value of 25 is decent
Also has a measure of Volatility if you're into that
Explanation of inputs:
Bandwidth - for derivative function
Fastma - period for fast Moving Average
Slowma - period for slow Moving Average
Derivmalength - smooths out the signal, reducing single contrasting bars, but delays the signal. Use 1 if don't want to use
V length - ema of volatility if you want to smooth it
Min Slope Percentile - slope should exceed this percentile to be classified as uptrend (green) or downtrend (red) anything in this bottom percentile will be considered sideways
Mine Slope Lookback Period - # of bars back to calculate Slope Percentile
Coinbase to Binance premium indicator/strategy
1) Offers bar/ma chart of premium
2) Offers different trading strats based on premium(ma cross, premium value cross, smoothed premium value cross)
supersmoother code credited to someone else from tradingview
Momentum Acceleration by DGTItalian physicist Galileo Galilei is usually credited with being the first to measure speed by considering the distance covered and the time it takes. Galileo defined speed as the distance covered during a period of time. In equation form, that is v = Δd / Δt where v is speed, Δd is change in distance, and Δt is change in time. The Greek symbol for delta, a triangle (Δ), means change.
Is the speed getting faster or slower?
Acceleration will be the answer, acceleration is defined as the rate of change of speed over a set period of time, meaning something is getting faster or slower. Mathematically expressed, acceleration denoted as a is a = Δv / Δt , where Δv is the change in speed and Δt is the change in time.
How to apply in trading
Lets think about Momentum, Rate of Return, Rate of Change all are calculated in almost same approach with Speed
Momentum measures change in price over a specified time period,
Rate of Change measures percent change in price over a specified time period,
Rate of Return measures the net gain or loss over a specified time period,
And Speed measures change in distance over a specified time period
So we may state that measuring the change in distance is also measuring the change in price over a specified time period which is length, hence
speed can be calculated as (source – source )/length and acceleration becomes (speed – speed )/length
In this study acceleration is used as signal line and result plotted as arrows demonstrating bull or bear direction where direction changes can be considered as trading setups
Just a little fun, since we deal with speed the short name of the study is named after famous cartoon character Speedy Gonzales
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
Disclaimer: The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
JSun - Guppy Multiple Moving AverAgeThe Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is a technical indicator that identifies changing trends, breakouts, and trading opportunities in the price of an asset by combining two groups of moving averages (MA) with different time periods. There is a short-term group of MAs, and a long-term group of MA. Both contain six MAs, for a total of 12. The term gets its name from Daryl Guppy, an Australian trader who is credited with its development.
Key Takeaways:
1. The Gruppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) is applied as an overlay on the price chart of an asset.
2. The short-term MAs are typically set at 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, and 15 periods. The longer-term MAs are typically set at 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and 60.
3. When the short-term group of averages moves above the longer-term group, it indicates a price uptrend in the asset could be emerging.
4. When the short-term group falls below the longer-term group of MAs, a price downtrend in the asset could be starting.
5. When there is lots of separation between the MAs, this helps confirm the price trend in the current direction.
6. If both groups become compressed with each other, or crisscross, it indicates the price has paused and a price trend reversal is possible.
7. Traders often trade in the direction the longer-term MA group is moving, and use the short-term group for trade signals to enter or exit.
strategy of RSI with trendlines and S/RBefore I go through this chart I want to acknowledge the great programmers who spent much of their time and effort to assist many TV users and traders.
Thank you to LunaOwl for the RSI American lines her script made me realize the need to have trendlines, supports, and resistance on RSI charts.
Also, a copy of Lij_MC code from was taken which had been credited to Duyck. Thank you Duyck.
The BB was copied from morpheus747
As I researched different strategies one strategy seemed to assist the trader for entry and exits. It was the combination of Support and resistance on the RSI. In addition, diagonal lines (Recently introduced in pine script V4) assists in the direction and reversals that may occur. What is supplied is only a graphical representation and no trade entry or exit points are selected.
On the chart you can use;
• RSI line or bar;
• Bollinger High / Low support line;
• Diagonal trend lines. A primary and a secondary group of trendlines; and
• Trendline candle highlighter.
I am hoping people with great skills could assist to develop this to the next level.
I hope this graphical strategy may help until further development. Enjoy.
Derivative Oscillator Cu [ID: AC-P]The "AC-P" version of the Derivative Oscillator is my personal customized version of Constance Brown's Derivative Oscillator (using Everget's implementation of it as the base), with the the following modifications and additions:
VWAP Indication - option to show whether the price input option is above or below the Daily VWAP (red triangles = price input is below vwap, green triangles = price input is above vwap)
Bullish and Bearish phases from shayankm's Waddah Attar Explosion V2 () is included as indication dots (bullish = blue dots, bearish = yellow dots) below/above the Derivative Oscillator histogram
Coral Trend from Lazybear () is included as indication dots (red/green dots below/above the Derivative Oscillator histogram
Input source options for vwap, Waddah components (MACD, Bollinger Upper/Lower)
Centerline option for Coral trend, and Horizontal center option for the Derivative Oscillator with circle indication (optional - provided as option for flexibility in use with overlaying with other indicators)
This indicator is a hybrid, with a combination of leading indicators and lagging trending indicators combined into one. Specifically, a few of the other indicators I use are lacking in the momentum and trend department, and this is one of the indicators I use to address that:
VWAP provides trend information on lower timeframes from a high timeframe interval (D)
Coral Trend provides additional confirmation to VWAP trend wise, and is adjustable
Waddah Attar Explosion provides a third level of confirmation for trending moves, taking into account shorter and longer timeframes (FastEMA and SlowEMA parameters).
Script base for the Derivative Oscillator is credited to Everget () and LazyBear ().
Source attribution to Constance Brown for the Derivative Oscillator formula/indicator:
// Brown, Constance.
// Reference 1: “The Derivative Oscillator: a New Approach to an Old Problem,” Journal of Technical Analysis (Winter-Spring 1994) 45–61.
// Reference 2: Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1999.
Information on the Derivative Oscillator:
www.investopedia.com
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Multiplethis study plots the price of btc over the Stock to Flow Model value
idea credited to: 100trillionUSD
my data is a bit off compared to the original source but overall it seems correct
Stock to Flowthis study gives the option to plot the stock to flow
OR the number of blocks per month. (you must edit the code by deleting the //)
it should be used only on the monthly timeframe
idea credited to:
medium.com
Ighodalo Gold - CRT (Candles are ranges theory)This indicator is designed to automatically identify and display CRT (Candles are Ranges Theory) Candles on your chart. It draws the high and low of the identified range and extends them until price breaks out, providing clear levels of support and resistance.
The Candles are Ranges Theory (CRT) concept was originally developed and shared by a trader named Romeotpt (Raid). All credit for the trading methodology goes to him. This indicator simply makes spotting these specific candles easier.
What is a CRT Candle & How Is It Used?
A CRT candle is a single candle that has both the highest high AND the lowest low over a user-defined period. It is identified by analysing a block of recent candles and finding the one candle that contains the entire price range of that block.
Once a CRT candle is formed, its high and low act as an accumulation range.
A break above or below this range is the manipulation phase.
A reclaim of the range (price closing back inside) signifies a potential distribution phase.
On higher timeframes, this sequence can be interpreted as:
Candle 1: Accumulation
Candle 2: Manipulation
Candle 3: Distribution
Reversal (Turtle Soup):
A sweep of the high or low, followed by a quick reclaim (price closing back inside the range), can signify a reversal. According to the theory’s originator, Romeo, this reversal pattern is called “turtle soup.”
After a bearish reversal at the high, the target becomes the CRT low.
After a bullish reversal at the low, the target becomes the CRT high.
How to Use This Indicator
The indicator is flexible and can be adapted to your trading style. The most important settings are:
Max Lookback Period: Number of past candles ("n") the indicator checks within to find a CRT.
CRT Timeframe:
Select a timeframe (e.g., 1H): The indicator will look at the higher timeframe you selected and plot the most recent CRT range from that timeframe onto your current chart. This is useful for multi-timeframe analysis.
Enable Overlapping CRTs:
False (unchecked): Shows only one active CRT range at a time. The indicator won’t look for a new one until the current range is broken.
True (checked): Constantly searches for and displays all CRT ranges it finds, allowing multiple ranges to appear on the chart simultaneously.
Disclaimer & Notes
-This is a visualisation tool and not a standalone trading signal. Always use it alongside your own analysis and risk management strategy.
-All credit for the "Candles are Ranges Theory" (CRT) concept goes to its creator, Romeotpt (Raid).
"On the journey to the opposite side of the range, price often provides multiple turtle soup entry opportunities. Follow their footprints." — Raid, 2025
Contract Interest Turnover T3 [T69]Overview
--------
Contract Interest Turnover (CIT) estimates how “churny” a crypto derivatives market is by comparing the amount traded in a bar to the base stock of outstanding contracts (open interest). It normalizes both Volume and Open Interest (OI) by Price (Close), then plots a Turnover Rate = (Volume/Close) ÷ (OI/Close) as colored columns. Higher values = faster contract recycling (strong momentum / hype potential).
Features
--------
- Auto-fetch OI: Pulls OI via request.security(_OI, …) when the exchange/symbol exposes an OI stream on TradingView.
- Price-normalized comparison: Converts both Volume and OI into comparable notional terms by dividing each by Close.
- Turnover columns with threshold: Color the columns green once Turnover ≥ your set threshold; gray otherwise.
- Status-line readouts: Displays normalized Volume and OI values for quick sanity checks.
- Crypto-aware timeframe: Uses chart TF for crypto; forces daily OI when not crypto to avoid noisy intraday pulls.
How to Use
----------
1. Add the script on a perpetual/futures symbol that has OI on TradingView (e.g., BTC perps where an _OI feed exists).
2. Watch the Turnover Rate bars: spikes above your threshold flag sessions where contracts are actively flipping.
3. Interpret spikes as a signal of movement or activity — it does not specify price direction, only that the market is engaged and contracts are being traded more intensely than usual.
Configuration
-------------
- Interest Turnover Threshold (default 1.0): colors columns green when Turnover ≥ threshold. Tune per market’s typical churn profile.
Under the Hood (Formulas & Logic)
---------------------------------
- Fetch OI
oiClose ← request.security(ticker.standard(syminfo.tickerid) + "_OI", timeframe, close) with ignore_invalid_symbol = true.
If none is found, the script throws a clear runtime error.
- Normalize to price
vol_norm = volume / close
oi_norm = oiClose / close
This converts both to a common notional basis so their ratio is meaningful even as price changes.
- Turnover Rate
turnover = vol_norm / oi_norm
Interpretation: fraction/multiples of the outstanding contract base traded in the bar. Color = green if turnover ≥ threshold.
Why Open Interest ≈ “Float” Proxy
---------------------------------
In stocks, float ≈ shares the public can trade. In derivatives, there are no “shares,” so Open Interest acts as the live stock of active contracts. It’s the best proxy for “what’s available in play” because it counts open positions that persist across bars. Using Volume ÷ OI mirrors stock float-turnover logic: how fast the tradable base is being recycled each period.
Why Normalize by Price
----------------------
Derivatives volume and OI may be reported in contracts, not notional value. One contract’s economic weight changes with price (especially on inverse contracts). Dividing both Volume and OI by Close:
- Puts them on a comparable notional footing.
- Prevents false spikes purely from price moves.
- Makes Turnover comparable across time even as price trends.
Advanced Tips
-------------
- Calibrate threshold: Start from the 80th–90th percentile of the last 60–90 bars of Turnover; set the threshold a touch below that to surface early heat.
- Add OI-delta: Layer an OI change histogram (current − prior) to separate new positioning from pure churn.
- Linear vs inverse: For linear (USDT-margined) contracts, the normalization still works and keeps visuals consistent; for inverse, it’s essential.
Limitations
-----------
- Data availability: Works only if your symbol exposes an _OI feed on TradingView; otherwise it errors out.
- Exchange conventions: Volume units differ by venue (contracts, coin, notional). Normalization mitigates, but cross-symbol comparisons still need caution.
- Intrabar gaps: OI is typically end-of-bar; rapid intrabar shifts won’t appear until the bar closes.
Notes
-----
- Designed primarily for crypto derivatives. For non-crypto, the script blanks OI to avoid misleading plots and uses a daily TF when needed.
Credit
------
- Concept & data: Built for TradingView data feeds.
- Acknowledgment: Credit to TradingView default indicator as requested.
- Source: This write-up reflects the logic present in your uploaded script.
Disclaimer
----------
Markets move; indicators simplify. Use with position sizing, hard stops, and catalyst awareness. The Turnover Rate flags activity, not direction.
Multi Timeframe 3 ADX Lines with LabelsGuy this is not a new indicator this is the indicator which I have developed from some previous versions of indicator so no credit to me all credit to people who have developed multi time frame this ads I have used three lines three time frames so you can analyze the long term trend of EDX then midterm Trend and lower time from time not get confused that what time it is please use it and enjoy
US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
Aruoba, S. B., Diebold, F. X., & Scotti, C. (2009). Real-time measurement of business conditions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4), 417-427.
Basseville, M., & Nikiforov, I. V. (1993). Detection of abrupt changes: Theory and application. Prentice Hall.
Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
Cormen, T. H., Leiserson, C. E., Rivest, R. L., & Stein, C. (2009). Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press.
Doz, C., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2011). A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), 188-205.
Dzeng, R. J., & Lin, Y. C. (2004). Intelligent agents for supporting construction procurement negotiation. Expert Systems with Applications, 27(1), 107-119.
Elliot, A. J., & Maier, M. A. (2014). Color psychology: Effects of perceiving color on psychological functioning in humans. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 95-120.
Few, S. (2006). Information dashboard design: The effective visual communication of data. O'Reilly Media.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Foley, J. D., van Dam, A., Feiner, S. K., & Hughes, J. F. (1995). Computer graphics: Principles and practice. Addison-Wesley.
Gordon, M. J. (1962). The investment, financing, and valuation of the corporation. Richard D. Irwin.
Hasbrouck, J. (2007). Empirical market microstructure: The institutions, economics, and econometrics of securities trading. Oxford University Press.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
Nielsen, J. (1993). Usability engineering. Academic Press.
Norman, D. A. (2013). The design of everyday things: Revised and expanded edition. Basic Books.
OECD (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing.
Oppenheim, A. V., & Schafer, R. W. (2009). Discrete-time signal processing. Prentice Hall.
Sahm, C. (2019). Direct stimulus payments to individuals. In Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy (pp. 67-92). The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
Siegel, J. J. (2002). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies. McGraw-Hill.
Sommerville, I. (2016). Software engineering. Pearson.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 351-394.
Sweller, J. (1988). Cognitive load during problem solving: Effects on learning. Cognitive Science, 12(2), 257-285.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information. Graphics Press.
Yardeni, E. (2003). Stock valuation models. Topical Study, 38. Yardeni Research.
ArraysAssorted🟩 OVERVIEW
This library provides utility methods for working with arrays in Pine Script. The first method finds extreme values (highest/lowest) within a rolling lookback window and returns both the value and its position. I might extend the library for other ad-hoc methods I use to work with arrays.
🟩 HOW TO USE
Pine Script libraries contain reusable code for importing into indicators. You do not need to copy any code out of here. Just import the library and call the method you want.
For example, for version 1 of this library, import it like this:
import SimpleCryptoLife/ArraysAssorted/1
See the EXAMPLE USAGE sections within the library for examples of calling the methods.
You do not need permission to use Pine libraries in your open-source scripts.
However, you do need explicit permission to reuse code from a Pine Script library’s functions in a public protected or invite-only publication .
In any case, credit the author in your description. It is also good form to credit in open-source comments.
For more information on libraries and incorporating them into your scripts, see the Libraries section of the Pine Script User Manual.
🟩 METHOD 1: m_getHighestLowestFloat()
Finds the highest or lowest float value from an array. Simple enough. It also returns the index of the value as an offset from the end of the array.
• It works with rolling lookback windows, so you can find extremes within the last N elements
• It includes an offset parameter to skip recent elements if needed
• It handles edge cases like empty arrays and invalid ranges gracefully
• It can find either the first or last occurrence of the extreme value
We also export two enums whose sole purpose is to look pretty as method arguments.
method m_getHighestLowestFloat(_self, _highestLowest, _lookbackBars, _offset, _firstLastType)
Namespace types: array
This method finds the highest or lowest value in a float array within a rolling lookback window, and returns the value along with the offset (number of elements back from the end of the array) of its first or last occurrence.
Parameters:
_self (array) : The array of float values to search for extremes.
_highestLowest (HighestLowest) : Whether to search for the highest or lowest value. Use the enum value HighestLowest.highest or HighestLowest.lowest.
_lookbackBars (int) : The number of array elements to include in the rolling lookback window. Must be positive. Note: Array elements only correspond to bars if the consuming script always adds exactly one element on consecutive bars.
_offset (int) : The number of array elements back from the end of the array to start the lookback window. A value of zero means no offset. The _offset parameter offsets both the beginning and end of the range.
_firstLastType (FirstLast) : Whether to return the offset of the first (lowest index) or last (highest index) occurrence of the extreme value. Use FirstLast.first or FirstLast.last.
Returns: (tuple) A tuple containing the highest or lowest value and its offset -- the number of elements back from the end of the array. If not found, returns . NOTE: The _offsetFromEndOfArray value is not affected by the _offset parameter. In other words, it is not the offset from the end of the range but from the end of the array. This number may or may not have any relation to the number of *bars* back, depending on how the array is populated. The calling code needs to figure that out.
EXPORTED ENUMS
HighestLowest
Whether to return the highest value or lowest value in the range.
• highest : Find the highest value in the specified range
• lowest : Find the lowest value in the specified range
FirstLast
Whether to return the first (lowest index) or last (highest index) occurrence of the extreme value.
• first : Return the offset of the first occurrence of the extreme value
• last : Return the offset of the last occurrence of the extreme value
Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (Proxy)The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (BFCI): A Proxy Implementation
Financial conditions indices (FCIs) have become essential tools for economists, policymakers, and market participants seeking to quantify and monitor the overall state of financial markets. Among these measures, the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (BFCI) has emerged as a particularly influential metric. Originally developed by Bloomberg L.P., the BFCI provides a comprehensive assessment of stress or ease in financial markets by aggregating various market-based indicators into a single, standardized value (Hatzius et al., 2010).
The original Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index synthesizes approximately 50 different financial market variables, including money market indicators, bond market spreads, equity market valuations, and volatility measures. These variables are normalized using a Z-score methodology, weighted according to their relative importance to overall financial conditions, and then aggregated to produce a composite index (Carlson et al., 2014). The resulting measure is centered around zero, with positive values indicating accommodative financial conditions and negative values representing tighter conditions relative to historical norms.
As Angelopoulou et al. (2014) note, financial conditions indices like the BFCI serve as forward-looking indicators that can signal potential economic developments before they manifest in traditional macroeconomic data. Research by Adrian et al. (2019) demonstrates that deteriorating financial conditions, as measured by indices such as the BFCI, often precede economic downturns by several months, making these indices valuable tools for predicting changes in economic activity.
Proxy Implementation Approach
The implementation presented in this Pine Script indicator represents a proxy of the original Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, attempting to capture its essential features while acknowledging several significant constraints. Most critically, while the original BFCI incorporates approximately 50 financial variables, this proxy version utilizes only six key market components due to data accessibility limitations within the TradingView platform.
These components include:
Equity market performance (using SPY as a proxy for S&P 500)
Bond market yields (using TLT as a proxy for 20+ year Treasury yields)
Credit spreads (using the ratio between LQD and HYG as a proxy for investment-grade to high-yield spreads)
Market volatility (using VIX directly)
Short-term liquidity conditions (using SHY relative to equity prices as a proxy)
Each component is transformed into a Z-score based on log returns, weighted according to approximated importance (with weights derived from literature on financial conditions indices by Brave and Butters, 2011), and aggregated into a composite measure.
Differences from the Original BFCI
The methodology employed in this proxy differs from the original BFCI in several important ways. First, the variable selection is necessarily limited compared to Bloomberg's comprehensive approach. Second, the proxy relies on ETFs and publicly available indices rather than direct market rates and spreads used in the original. Third, the weighting scheme, while informed by academic literature, is simplified compared to Bloomberg's proprietary methodology, which may employ more sophisticated statistical techniques such as principal component analysis (Kliesen et al., 2012).
These differences mean that while the proxy BFCI captures the general direction and magnitude of financial conditions, it may not perfectly replicate the precision or sensitivity of the original index. As Aramonte et al. (2013) suggest, simplified proxies of financial conditions indices typically capture broad movements in financial conditions but may miss nuanced shifts in specific market segments that more comprehensive indices detect.
Practical Applications and Limitations
Despite these limitations, research by Arregui et al. (2018) indicates that even simplified financial conditions indices constructed from a limited set of variables can provide valuable signals about market stress and future economic activity. The proxy BFCI implemented here still offers significant insight into the relative ease or tightness of financial conditions, particularly during periods of market stress when correlations among financial variables tend to increase (Rey, 2015).
In practical applications, users should interpret this proxy BFCI as a directional indicator rather than an exact replication of Bloomberg's proprietary index. When the index moves substantially into negative territory, it suggests deteriorating financial conditions that may precede economic weakness. Conversely, strongly positive readings indicate unusually accommodative financial conditions that might support economic expansion but potentially also signal excessive risk-taking behavior in markets (López-Salido et al., 2017).
The visual implementation employs a color gradient system that enhances interpretation, with blue representing neutral conditions, green indicating accommodative conditions, and red signaling tightening conditions—a design choice informed by research on optimal data visualization in financial contexts (Few, 2009).
References
Adrian, T., Boyarchenko, N. and Giannone, D. (2019) 'Vulnerable Growth', American Economic Review, 109(4), pp. 1263-1289.
Angelopoulou, E., Balfoussia, H. and Gibson, H. (2014) 'Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?', Economic Modelling, 38, pp. 392-403.
Aramonte, S., Rosen, S. and Schindler, J. (2013) 'Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes', Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
Arregui, N., Elekdag, S., Gelos, G., Lafarguette, R. and Seneviratne, D. (2018) 'Can Countries Manage Their Financial Conditions Amid Globalization?', IMF Working Paper No. 18/15.
Brave, S. and Butters, R. (2011) 'Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach', Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 35(1), pp. 22-43.
Carlson, M., Lewis, K. and Nelson, W. (2014) 'Using policy intervention to identify financial stress', International Journal of Finance & Economics, 19(1), pp. 59-72.
Few, S. (2009) Now You See It: Simple Visualization Techniques for Quantitative Analysis. Analytics Press, Oakland, CA.
Hatzius, J., Hooper, P., Mishkin, F., Schoenholtz, K. and Watson, M. (2010) 'Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis', NBER Working Paper No. 16150.
Kliesen, K., Owyang, M. and Vermann, E. (2012) 'Disentangling Diverse Measures: A Survey of Financial Stress Indexes', Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 94(5), pp. 369-397.
López-Salido, D., Stein, J. and Zakrajšek, E. (2017) 'Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle', The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(3), pp. 1373-1426.
Rey, H. (2015) 'Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence', NBER Working Paper No. 21162.
Parabolic RSI Strategy [ChartPrime × PineIndicators]This strategy combines the strengths of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) with a Parabolic SAR logic applied directly to RSI values.
Full credit to ChartPrime for the original concept and indicator, licensed under the MPL 2.0.
It provides clear momentum-based trade signals using an innovative method that tracks RSI trend reversals via a customized Parabolic SAR, enhancing traditional oscillator strategies with dynamic trend confirmation.
How It Works
The system overlays a Parabolic SAR on the RSI, detecting trend shifts in RSI itself rather than on price, offering early reversal insight with visual and algorithmic clarity.
Core Components
1. RSI-Based Trend Detection
Calculates RSI using a customizable length (default: 14).
Uses upper and lower thresholds (default: 70/30) for overbought/oversold zones.
2. Parabolic SAR Applied to RSI
A custom Parabolic SAR function tracks momentum within the RSI, not price.
This allows the system to capture RSI trend reversals more responsively.
Configurable SAR parameters: Start, Increment, and Maximum acceleration.
3. Signal Generation
Long Entry: Triggered when the SAR flips below the RSI line.
Short Entry: Triggered when the SAR flips above the RSI line.
Optional RSI filter ensures that:
Long entries only occur above a minimum RSI (e.g. 50).
Short entries only occur below a maximum RSI.
Built-in logic prevents new positions from being opened against trend without prior exit.
Trade Modes & Controls
Choose from:
Long Only
Short Only
Long & Short
Optional setting to reverse positions on opposite signal (instead of waiting for a flat close).
Visual Features
1. RSI Plotting with Thresholds
RSI is displayed in a dedicated pane with overbought/oversold fill zones.
Custom horizontal lines mark threshold boundaries.
2. Parabolic SAR Overlay on RSI
SAR dots color-coded for trend direction.
Visible only when enabled by user input.
3. Entry & Exit Markers
Diamonds: Mark entry points (above for shorts, below for longs).
Crosses: Mark exit points.
Strategy Strengths
Provides early momentum reversal entries without relying on price candles.
Combines oscillator and trend logic without repainting.
Works well in both trending and mean-reverting markets.
Easy to configure with fine-tuned filter options.
Recommended Use Cases
Intraday or swing traders who want to catch RSI-based reversals early.
Traders seeking smoother signals than price-based Parabolic SAR entries.
Users of RSI looking to reduce false positives via trend tracking.
Customization Options
RSI Length and Thresholds.
SAR Start, Increment, and Maximum values.
Trade Direction Mode (Long, Short, Both).
Optional RSI filter and reverse-on-signal settings.
SAR dot color customization.
Conclusion
The Parabolic RSI Strategy is an innovative, non-repainting momentum strategy that enhances RSI-based systems with trend-confirming logic using Parabolic SAR. By applying SAR logic to RSI values, this strategy offers early, visualized, and filtered entries and exits that adapt to market dynamics.
Credit to ChartPrime for the original methodology, published under MPL-2.0.
Dual-Phase Trend Regime Strategy [Zeiierman X PineIndicators]This strategy is based on the Dual-Phase Trend Regime Indicator by Zeiierman.
Full credit for the original concept and logic goes to Zeiierman.
This non-repainting strategy dynamically switches between fast and slow oscillators based on market volatility, providing adaptive entries and exits with high clarity and reliability.
Core Concepts
1. Adaptive Dual Oscillator Logic
The system uses two oscillators:
Fast Oscillator: Activated in high-volatility phases for quick reaction.
Slow Oscillator: Used during low-volatility phases to reduce noise.
The system automatically selects the appropriate oscillator depending on the market's volatility regime.
2. Volatility Regime Detection
Volatility is calculated using the standard deviation of returns. A median-split algorithm clusters volatility into:
Low Volatility Cluster
High Volatility Cluster
The current volatility is then compared to these clusters to determine whether the regime is low or high volatility.
3. Trend Regime Identification
Based on the active oscillator:
Bullish Trend: Oscillator > 0.5
Bearish Trend: Oscillator < 0.5
Neutral Trend: Oscillator = 0.5
The strategy reacts to changes in this trend regime.
4. Signal Source Options
You can choose between:
Regime Shift (Arrows): Trade based on oscillator value changes (from bullish to bearish and vice versa).
Oscillator Cross: Trade based on crossovers between the fast and slow oscillators.
Trade Logic
Trade Direction Options
Long Only
Short Only
Long & Short
Entry Conditions
Long Entry: Triggered on bullish regime shift or fast crossing above slow.
Short Entry: Triggered on bearish regime shift or fast crossing below slow.
Exit Conditions
Long Exit: Triggered on bearish shift or fast crossing below slow.
Short Exit: Triggered on bullish shift or fast crossing above slow.
The strategy closes opposing positions before opening new ones.
Visual Features
Oscillator Bands: Plots fast and slow oscillators, colored by trend.
Background Highlight: Indicates current trend regime.
Signal Markers: Triangle shapes show bullish/bearish shifts.
Dashboard Table: Displays live trend status ("Bullish", "Bearish", "Neutral") in the chart’s corner.
Inputs & Customization
Oscillator Periods – Fast and slow lengths.
Refit Interval – How often volatility clusters update.
Volatility Lookback & Smoothing
Color Settings – Choose your own bullish/bearish colors.
Signal Mode – Regime shift or oscillator crossover.
Trade Direction Mode
Use Cases
Swing Trading: Take entries based on adaptive regime shifts.
Trend Following: Follow the active trend using filtered oscillator logic.
Volatility-Responsive Systems: Adjust your trade behavior depending on market volatility.
Clean Exit Management: Automatically closes positions on opposite signal.
Conclusion
The Dual-Phase Trend Regime Strategy is a smart, adaptive, non-repainting system that:
Automatically switches between fast and slow trend logic.
Responds dynamically to changes in volatility.
Provides clean and visual entry/exit signals.
Supports both momentum and reversal trading logic.
This strategy is ideal for traders seeking a volatility-aware, trend-sensitive tool across any market or timeframe.
Full credit to Zeiierman.
OverUnder Yield Spread🗺️ OverUnder is a structural regime visualizer , engineered to diagnose the shape, tone, and trajectory of the yield curve. Rather than signaling trades directly, it informs traders of the world they’re operating in. Yield curve steepening or flattening, normalizing or inverting — each regime reflects a macro pressure zone that impacts duration demand, liquidity conditions, and systemic risk appetite. OverUnder abstracts that complexity into a color-coded compression map, helping traders orient themselves before making risk decisions. Whether you’re in bonds, currencies, crypto, or equities, the regime matters — and OverUnder makes it visible.
🧠 Core Logic
Built to show the slope and intent of a selected rate pair, the OverUnder Yield Spread defaults to 🇺🇸US10Y-US2Y, but can just as easily compare global sovereign curves or even dislocated monetary systems. This value is continuously monitored and passed through a debounce filter to determine whether the curve is:
• Inverted, or
• Steepening
If the curve is flattening below zero: the world is bracing for contraction. Policy lags. Risk appetite deteriorates. Duration gets bid, but only as protection. Stocks and speculative assets suffer, regardless of positioning.
📍 Curve Regimes in Bull and Bear Contexts
• Flattening occurs when the short and long ends compress . In a bull regime, flattening may reflect long-end demand or fading growth expectations. In a bear regime, flattening often precedes or confirms central bank tightening.
• Steepening indicates expanding spread . In a bull context, this may signal healthy risk appetite or early expansion. In a bear or crisis context, it may reflect aggressive front-end cuts and dislocation between short- and long-term expectations.
• If the curve is steepening above zero: the world is rotating into early expansion. Risk assets behave constructively. Bond traders position for normalization. Equities and crypto begin trending higher on rising forward expectations.
🖐️ Dynamically Colored Spread Line Reflects 1 of 4 Regime States
• 🟢 Normal / Steepening — early expansion or reflation
• 🔵 Normal / Flattening — late-cycle or neutral slowdown
• 🟠 Inverted / Steepening — policy reversal or soft landing attempt
• 🔴 Inverted / Flattening — hard contraction, credit stress, policy lag
🍋 The Lemon Label
At every bar, an anchored label floats directly on the spread line. It displays the active regime (in plain English) and the precise spread in percent (or basis points, depending on resolution). Colored lemon yellow, neither green nor red, the label is always legible — a design choice to de-emphasize bias and center the data .
🎨 Fill Zones
These bands offer spatial, persistent views of macro compression or inversion depth.
• Blue fill appears above the zero line in normal (non-inverted) conditions
• Red fill appears below the zero line during inversion
🧪 Sample Reading: 1W chart of TLT
OverUnder reveals a multi-year arc of structural inversion and regime transition. From mid-2021 through late 2023, the spread remains decisively inverted, signaling persistent flattening and credit stress as bond prices trended sharply lower. This prolonged inversion aligns with a high-volatility phase in TLT, marked by lower highs and an accelerating downtrend, confirming policy lag and macro tightening conditions.
As of early 2025, the spread has crossed back above the zero baseline into a “Normal / Steepening” regime (annotated at +0.56%), suggesting a macro inflection point. Price action remains subdued, but the shift in yield structure may foreshadow a change in trend context — particularly if follow-through in steepening persists.
🎭 Different Traders Respond Differently:
• Bond traders monitor slope change to anticipate policy pivots or recession signals.
• Equity traders use regime shifts to time rotations, from growth into defense, or from contraction into reflation.
• Currency traders interpret curve steepening as yield compression or divergence depending on region.
• Crypto traders treat inversion as a liquidity vacuum — and steepening as an early-phase risk unlock.
🛡️ Can It Compare Different Bond Markets?
Yes — with caveats. The indicator can be used to compare distinct sovereign yield instruments, for example:
• 🇫🇷FR10Y vs 🇩🇪DE10Y - France vs Germany
• 🇯🇵JP10Y vs 🇺🇸US10Y - BoJ vs Fed policy curves
However:
🙈 This no longer visualizes the domestic yield curve, but rather the differential between rate expectations across regions
🙉 The interpretation of “inversion” changes — it reflects spread compression across nations , not within a domestic yield structure
🙊 Color regimes should then be viewed as relative rate positioning , not absolute curve health
🙋🏻 Example: OverUnder compares French vs German 10Y yields
1. 🇫🇷 Change the long-duration ticker to FR10Y
2. 🇩🇪 Set the short-duration ticker to DE10Y
3. 🤔 Interpret the result as: “How much higher is France’s long-term borrowing cost vs Germany’s?”
You’ll see steepening when the spread rises (France decoupling), flattening when the spread compresses (convergence), and inversions when Germany yields rise above France’s — historically rare and meaningful.
🧐 Suggested Use
OverUnder is not a signal engine — it’s a context map. Its value comes from situating any trade idea within the prevailing yield regime. Use it before entries, not after them.
• On the 1W timeframe, OverUnder excels as a macro overlay. Yield regime shifts unfold over quarters, not days. Weekly structure smooths out rate volatility and reveals the true curvature of policy response and liquidity pressure. Use this view to orient your portfolio, define directional bias, or confirm long-duration trend turns in assets like TLT, SPX, or BTC.
• On the 1D timeframe, the indicator becomes tactically useful — especially when aligning breakout setups or trend continuations with steepening or flattening transitions. Daily views can also identify early-stage regime cracks that may not yet be visible on the weekly.
• Avoid sub-daily use unless you’re anchoring a thesis already built on higher timeframe structure. The yield curve is a macro construct — it doesn’t oscillate cleanly at intraday speeds. Shorter views may offer clarity during event-driven spikes (like FOMC reactions), but they do not replace weekly context.
Ultimately, OverUnder helps you decide: What kind of world am I trading in? Use it to confirm macro context, avoid fighting the curve, and lean into trades aligned with the broader pressure regime.
