Universal Adaptive Tracking🙏🏻 Behold, this is UAT (Universal Adaptive Tracker) , with less words imma proceed how it compares with alternatives:
^^ comparison with non-adaptive quadratic regression (purple line), that has higher overshoots, less precision
^^ comparison with JMA and its adaptive gain. JMA’s gain is heavily limited, while UAT’s negative and positive gains are soft-saturated with p-order Möbius transform
This drop is inspired by, dedicated to, and made will all love towards Jurik Research , who retired in October 2k21. When some1 steps out, some1 has to step in, and that time it’s me (again xd). But there’s some history u gotta know:
Some history u gotta know:
In ~2008 dudes from forexfactory reverse engineered Jurik Moving Average
In late 1990s dudes from Jurik Research approximated the best possible adaptive tracking filter for evolution of prices via engineering miracles
Today in 2k26, me I'm gonna present to you the real mathematical objects/entities behind JMA top-edge engineered approximates. You will prolly be even more happy now then all the dem together back then.
Why all this?
When we talk about object tracking stuff, e.g. air defense, drones, missiles, projectiles, prices, etc, it all comes down to adaptive control and (Position & Velocity & Acceleration) aka PVA state space models (the real stuff many of you count as DSP ).
Why? Cuz while position (P) : (mean), or position & velocity (PV) : (linear regression) are stable enough in dem own ways, Position & Velocity & Acceleration (PVA) : (quadratic regression+) require adaptivity do be stable. And real world stuff needs PVA, due to non-linearity for starters.
So that’s why. If your goal is Really smoothing and no lag, u gotta go there. I see a lot of folks are crazy with it and want it, so here is it, for y’all. And good news, this is perfect for your favorite Moving Windows.
How to use it
The upper study:
The final filter (main state): just as you use other fast smoothers, MAs, etc, you know better than me here
You can also turn in volatility bands in script’s style settings, these do not require any adjustments
Finally, you can turn on, in the same place, separate trackers each based on negative and positive volatility exclusively. When both are almost equal, that indicates stability & persistence in markets. May sound like it’s nothing important, but I've never seen anything like it before. Also, if you'd allow your our inner mental gym hero gloriously arise, you can argue that these 2 separate trackers represent 2 fair prices (one for sellers, one for buyers). All better then 1 imaginary fair price for both (forget about it)
The lower study:
The lower study: you can analyze streams of upward of downward volatilities separately. This is incredibly powerful
You can also turn these off and turn on neg & pos intensities, and use them as trend detector, when each or both cross 1.5 (naturally neutral) threshold.
^^ Upper study with expected typical and maximum volatility bands turned On
...
The method explained
What you got in the end is non-linear, adaptive, lighting fast when needed and slow when required price tracking. All built upon real math entities/objects, not a brilliantly engineered approximation of them. No parameters to optimize, data tells it all.
... It all starts from a process model, in our cause this is...
MFPM (Mechanical Feedback Price Model)
Doesn’t make gaussian assumptions like most quant mainstream tech, accepts that innovations are Laplace “at best”, relies in L inf and L0 spaces.
I created this model neither trynna fit non-fitting ARMA / variants, nor trynna be silly assuming that price state evolution and markets are random.
Theory behind it: if no new volume comes, then price evolution would be simply guided by the feedback based on previous trading activity, pushing prices towards the midrange between 2 latest datapoints, being the main force behind so called “pullbacks” and reason why most pullbacks end just a bit past 50% of a move.
This is the Real mechanical feedback based mean reversion, that is always there in the markets no matter what, think of it as a background process that is always there, and fresh new volume deviates prices away from it. Btw, this can also be expressed as AR2 with both phis = 0.5 .
Then I separate positive and negative innovations from this model and process them separately, reflecting the asymmetry between buy and sell forces, smth that most forget. Both of these follow exponential distribution . Each stream has its own memory so here we use recursive operators . We track maximum innovations (differences between real and expected datapoints) with exponentially decaying damping factor, and keep tracking typical innovation, with the same factor.
Then we calculate what’s called in lovely audio engineering as “ crest factor ”, the difference is we don’t do RMS and stuff. But hey again we work with laplace innovations, so we keep things in L0 and L inf spirit. Then we go a couple of steps further, making this crest factor truly relative (resolution agnostic), and then, most importantly, we apply a natural saturation on it based on p-order Möbius transform, but not with arbitrary p and L, but guided by informational limits of the data. These final "intensity" parameters are what we need next to make our object tracking adaptive.
Extended Beta(2, 2) Window
This is imo the main part of this. Looking at tapering windows in DSP and how wavelets are made from derivatives of PDF functions of probability distributions, I figured that why use just one derivative? That made me come up with Universal Moving Average , that combines PDF and CDF of Beta(2, 2) distribution . And that is fine for P (position) tracking model.
Here we need PVA (position & velocity & acceleration). We can realize that everything starts from PDF, and by adding derivatives and anti-derivatives of it as factors of final window weights, we can create smth truly unique, a weightset that is non-arbitrary and naturally provides response alike quadratic regression does, But, naturally smoothed.
Why do I consider this a discovery, a primordial math object? Because x^2 itself and Beta(2, 2) based on it are the only primitives, esp out of all these dozens of DSP tapering windows, that provide you a finite amount of derivatives. You can keep differentiating Hann window until the kingdom f come, while Welch window aka Beta(2, 2) has a natural stopping point, because the 3rd derivative is 0, so we can’t use it. Symmetrically, we do 2 steps up from PDF, getting 1st and second anti-derivatives. What’s lovely, symmetrically, 3rd antiderivative even tho exist, it stops making any sense. 2nd one still makes sense, it’s smth like “potential” of probability distribution, not really discussed in mainstream open access sources.
Finally, the last part is to introduce adaptivity using these intensity exponents we’ve calculated with MFPM. We do 2 separate trackers, one using the negative intensity exponent, another one uses positive intensity exponent.
And at the end, even tho using both together is cool, the final state estimate is calculated simply as the state which intensity has higher.
^^ impulse response of our final kernel with fixed (non adaptive) intensity exponents: 1 (blue) and 2 (red). You see it's all about phase
…
And that’s all folks.
…
Actually no …
Last, not least, is the ability to add additional innovation weight to the kernel:
^^ Weighting by innovations “On”. Provides incredible tracking precision, paid with smoothness. I think this screenshot, showing what happened after the gap, and how the tracker managed to react, explains it all.
...
Live Long and Prosper, all good TradingView
∞
Regressions
Short-Term Weekly Refuges (Shelters)## // Introduction // (Spanish Texts Below)
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Short-Term Weekly Refuges (Shelters) (WR or RS) is a structural analysis indicator designed to track price action during the current week. It combines a configurable ZigZag with Fibonacci retracements anchored to recent phases, using the Weekly Opening Price (W.O.P.) as a key reference level.
This indicator is optimized for 4H timeframe but also works on 1H and 15min charts.
## // Theoretical Foundation of the Indicator //
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The WR (RS) indicator provides a structural framework for following price action during the current trading week.
The core concept: Recent ZigZag phases, combined with the Weekly Opening Price, create dynamic support and resistance levels that institutional traders often monitor and use for intraweek positioning. The indicator allows you to select which recent phase (1-10) serves as the Fibonacci anchor.
## // Indicator Objectives //
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1) Display a configurable ZigZag showing recent price structure with numbered phases (1 = most recent). Users should configure the ZigZag parameters based on whether they are analyzing a Major Degree Pattern (larger swings, less noise) or a Minor Degree Pattern (smaller swings, more detail), following standard Elliott Wave terminology. Configure the ZigZag to match the degree of your analysis: use higher Depth values for Major Degree Patterns, or lower values for Minor Degree Patterns.
2) Draw Fibonacci retracements on a user-selected phase, with two modes:
• "On ZigZag": Traditional Fibonacci on the selected phase.
• "Relative to W.O.P.": Fibonacci from phase anchor (i0) to Weekly Opening Price.
3) Show Weekly Opening Price lines as horizontal references, with the current week's line extended into the future.
4) Provide Pivot Up/Down markers for additional confirmation of local highs and lows.
5) Support multiple simultaneous indicator loads with visual identifier labels to distinguish between different analysis degrees (e.g., "Major Degree Pattern" vs "Minor Degree Pattern").
6) Optional Embedded Indicator: Enable Intraday Shelters (RID) - percentage-based support/resistance levels calculated from the Daily Opening Price, useful for 1H and 15min trading.
## // Key Features //
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• **Flexible ZigZag**: Adjustable Depth, Deviation, and Backstep parameters to adapt to any asset's volatility and degree pattern.
• **Phase Selection**: Choose from the 10 most recent phases for Fibonacci anchoring.
• **Dual Fibonacci Modes**: Trace on the ZigZag phase itself, or relative to the Weekly Opening Price.
• **New Age Color Palette**: Professional Fibonacci color scheme used by old school experienced traders.
• **Weekly Opening Price (W.O.P.)**: Historical weekly opens plus current week projection.
• **"Show Only W.O.P." Mode**: Isolate just the Weekly Opening Price line for cleaner charts on non-4H timeframes.
• **Optional Intraday Shelters (RID)**: 11 percentage levels (±0.382%, ±1%, ±1.5%, ±2%, ±2.5%) based on Daily Opening Price.
• **Multi-Load Support**: Visual identifier tags and Large Label for running multiple indicator instances simultaneously.
## // Recommended Workflow //
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1) Load the indicator on a 4H chart.
2) Adjust ZigZag parameters (Depth, Deviation) until the phases match your visual analysis of recent price structure.
3) Select the phase you want to use as Fibonacci anchor (typically Phase 2, 3 or higher).
4) Choose Fibonacci mode: "On ZigZag" for phase analysis, or "Relative to W.O.P." for analysis based on weekly opening price context.
5) Monitor how price interacts with the Fibonacci levels and Weekly Opening Price throughout the week.
6) Optionally enable RID for intraday high precision order placements on 1H or 15min charts.
## // Integration with Other Refuge Indicators //
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This indicator WR (RS) is part of our complete refuge-based analysis ecosystem:
• LTR (RLP) (Long-Term Refuges): For automatic determination of the predominant phase of a ZigZag, which institutional investors choose as the basis for a Fibo whose levels calculate the projection for order placement over the following months and years.
• LTRS (RLPS) (Simple Long-Term Refuges): Simplified version of LTR in which the known coordinates of the predominant phases (obtained with the LTR indicator) of up to five assets are easily captured for permanent long-term operation.
• WR (RS) (Short-Term Weekly Refuges): For short-term tactical analysis (4H, 1H) based on chosen phases of a ZigZag that define Fibo levels effective during the near past week(s).
• IDR (RID) (Intra-Day Refuges): For daily operations relying on intraday levels on timeframes of 1H or less. Ideal for scalping traders.
By combining LTR, LTRS, WR and IDR, you obtain a multi-level framework that allows you to operate with clarity at any time horizon, from intraday positions to investments spanning months and years.
## // Additional Notes //
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1) Default parameters are optimized for volatile assets (crypto, tech stocks). For forex or less volatile instruments, consider reducing Deviation to 3-8%.
2) The "Phase in Development" (dashed line) shows the tentative current ZigZag segment that may still change as new bars form.
3) Due to TradingView's English-only publication rules, the complete Spanish version of this indicator with all tooltips and documentation will be available soon in our GitHub repository: aj-poolom-maasewal.
4) Bug reports, improvement proposals for the ZigZag generator, pattern determination, or Fibo composition, etc., will be greatly appreciated and taken into account for a future version. Best regards and happy hunting.
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TEXTO EN ESPANIOL (Sin acentos ni enies para compatibilidad con TradingView)
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## // Introduccion //
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Refugios Semanales (RS o WR) es un indicador de analisis estructural diseniado para seguir la accion del precio durante la semana en curso. Combina un ZigZag configurable con retrocesos de Fibonacci anclados a fases recientes, utilizando el Precio de Apertura Semanal (P.A.S.) como nivel de referencia clave.
Este indicador esta optimizado para temporalidad de 4H pero tambien funciona en graficos de 1H y 15min.
## // Fundamento Teorico del Indicador //
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El indicador RS (WR) proporciona un marco estructural para seguir la accion del precio durante la semana de operacion actual.
El concepto central: Las fases recientes del ZigZag, combinadas con el Precio de Apertura Semanal, crean niveles dinamicos de soporte y resistencia que los operadores institucionales frecuentemente monitorean para su posicionamiento intrasemanal. El indicador permite seleccionar cual fase reciente (1-10) sirve como ancla del Fibonacci.
## // Objetivos del Indicador //
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1) Mostrar un ZigZag configurable con la estructura de precios reciente y fases numeradas (1 = mas reciente). Los usuarios deben configurar los parametros del ZigZag segun esten analizando una Pauta de Grado Mayor (oscilaciones mas amplias, menos ruido) o una Pauta de Grado Menor (oscilaciones mas pequenias, mas detalle), siguiendo la terminologia estandar de Ondas de Elliott. Configure el ZigZag para que coincida con el grado de su analisis: use valores de Profundidad mas altos para Pautas de Grado Mayor, o valores mas bajos para Pautas de Grado Menor.
2) Dibujar retrocesos de Fibonacci en una fase seleccionada por el usuario, con dos modos:
• "En el ZigZag": Fibonacci tradicional sobre la fase seleccionada.
• "Respecto al P.A.S.": Fibonacci desde el ancla de la fase (i0) hasta el Precio de Apertura Semanal.
3) Mostrar lineas del Precio de Apertura Semanal como referencias horizontales, con la linea de la semana actual extendida hacia el futuro.
4) Proporcionar marcadores de Pivote Arriba/Abajo para confirmacion adicional de maximos y minimos locales.
5) Soportar multiples cargas simultaneas del indicador con etiquetas identificadoras visuales para distinguir entre diferentes grados de analisis (ej: "Pauta de Grado Mayor" vs "Pauta de Grado Menor").
6) Indicador Integrado Opcional: Habilitar Refugios Intra-Diarios (RID) - niveles de soporte/resistencia basados en porcentajes calculados desde el Precio de Apertura Diaria, util para operacion en 1H y 15min.
## // Caracteristicas Principales //
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• **ZigZag Flexible**: Parametros ajustables de Profundidad, Desviacion y Retroceso para adaptarse a la volatilidad y grado de pauta de cualquier activo.
• **Seleccion de Fase**: Elija entre las 10 fases mas recientes para el anclaje del Fibonacci.
• **Modos Duales de Fibonacci**: Trace sobre la fase del ZigZag, o relativo al Precio de Apertura Semanal.
• **Paleta de Colores New Age**: Esquema de colores profesional de Fibonacci usado por operadores institucionales de la vieja escuela.
• **Precio de Apertura Semanal (P.A.S.)**: Aperturas semanales historicas mas proyeccion de la semana actual.
• **Modo "Solo P.A.S."**: Aisla unicamente la linea del Precio de Apertura Semanal para graficos mas limpios en temporalidades distintas a 4H.
• **Refugios Intra-Diarios Opcionales (RID)**: 11 niveles porcentuales (±0.382%, ±1%, ±1.5%, ±2%, ±2.5%) basados en el Precio de Apertura Diaria.
• **Soporte Multi-Carga**: Etiquetas identificadoras visuales y Rotulo Grande para ejecutar multiples instancias del indicador simultaneamente.
## // Flujo de Trabajo Recomendado //
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1) Cargue el indicador en un grafico de 4H.
2) Ajuste los parametros del ZigZag (Profundidad, Desviacion) hasta que las fases coincidan con su analisis visual de la estructura de precios reciente.
3) Seleccione la fase que desea usar como ancla del Fibonacci (tipicamente Fase 2, 3 o superior).
4) Elija el modo de Fibonacci: "En el ZigZag" para analisis de fase, o "Respecto al P.A.S." para analisis basado en el contexto del precio de apertura semanal.
5) Monitoree como el precio interactua con los niveles de Fibonacci y el Precio de Apertura Semanal durante la semana.
6) Opcionalmente habilite RID para precision intradiaria en graficos de 1H o 15min.
## // Integracion con Otros Indicadores de Refugios //
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RS (WR) es parte de nuestro ecosistema completo de analisis basado en refugios:
• RLP (LTR) (Refugios de Largo Plazo): Para determinacion automatica de la fase preponderante de un ZigZag, que los inversionistas institucionales eligen como base para un Fibo cuyos niveles calculan la proyeccion para colocacion de ordenes durante los meses y anios siguientes.
• RLPS (LTRS) (Refugios de Largo Plazo Simplificado): Version simplificada de RLP en la cual las coordenadas conocidas de las fases preponderantes (obtenidas con el indicador RLP) de uno o hasta cinco activos se capturan facilmente para operacion permanente de largo plazo.
• RS (WR) (Refugios Semanales de Corto Plazo): Para analisis tactico de corto plazo (4H, 1H) basado en fases elegidas de un ZigZag que definen niveles Fibo efectivos durante la(s) semana(s) pasada(s) reciente(s).
• RID (IDR) (Refugios Intra-Diarios): Para operaciones diarias basadas en niveles intradiarios en temporalidades de 1H o menos. Ideal para operadores de scalping.
Al combinar RLP, RLPS, RS y RID, obtiene un marco multinivel que le permite operar con claridad en cualquier horizonte temporal, desde posiciones intradiarias hasta inversiones que abarcan meses y anios.
## // Notas Adicionales //
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1) Los parametros por defecto estan optimizados para activos volatiles (cripto, acciones tecnologicas). Para forex o instrumentos menos volatiles, considere reducir la Desviacion a 3-8%.
2) La "Fase en Desarrollo" (linea discontinua) muestra el segmento tentativo actual del ZigZag que aun puede cambiar conforme se formen nuevas barras.
3) Debido a las reglas de publicacion de TradingView (solo ingles), la version completa en espaniol de este indicador con todos los tooltips y documentacion estara disponible proximamente en nuestro repositorio de GitHub: aj-poolom-maasewal.
4) El reporte de cualquier error encontrado, propuestas de mejoras al generador de Zigzags, determinacion de pautas, o composicion del Fibo, etc., seran ampliamente agradecidas y tomadas en cuenta para una proxima version. Saludos y buena caceria.
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15m MR v2.4-HF FINAL v2 (Looser Kill + Better RR) - Long Only Summary
In short, this is a long-only, ATR-normalized mean reversion strategy that:
buys only after a deep oversold deviation and reversal evidence,
avoids extreme selloff regimes using a Kill Zone,
controls downside via structure + risk-cap stops,
and improves reward via partial profits + FV-based targets + optional trailing.
If you want, I can also write a one-paragraph “super simple” English version (for non-traders) or a presentation-style bullet slide version.
15m MR v2.4-HF FINAL v2 - ENTRY SIGNALS ONLYThis 15-minute mean-reversion long signal uses VWAP (or EMA) as fair value. It triggers only after a deep ATR-based drop below fair value, then requires a bullish reversal and reclaim back toward fair value. Extreme selloff (regime-kill) and trend filters reduce “catching falling knives,” while a post-panic window allows stronger capitulation-bottom entries.
Nifty 50 Logarithmic Rainbow (7 Bands)This description is written to be pasted directly into the "Description" field on TradingView when you publish or share the indicator. It explains the logic, how to read it, and the specific calibration for the Nifty 50.Description: Nifty 50 Logarithmic Regression Rainbow (Calibrated)OverviewThis indicator is a long-term valuation tool for the Nifty 50, inspired by the logarithmic regression models used by Benjamin Cowen for Bitcoin. Unlike standard linear trendlines, this model accounts for the exponential growth and diminishing volatility of a maturing stock index over decades.It is designed to help investors identify historical cycle extremes—distinguishing between "generational buying opportunities" and "overheated bubble territory."The MathematicsThe indicator uses a Power Law regression model based on over 30 years of Nifty 50 historical data (from 1990 to the present):$$\ln(\text{Price}) = a + b \cdot \ln(\text{Time} + \text{Offset})$ PSECZ:FIXED Parameters: The slope and intercept are hard-coded based on a best-fit analysis of the Nifty’s history, ensuring the bands remain stable and do not "jump" or repaint when you scroll through the chart.Time Offset: A specific 10,000-day offset is applied to the origin. This flattens the curve to perfectly match the Nifty's stable growth transition from the 1990s through the 2008 and 2020 cycles.How to Read the 7-Band RainbowThe chart is divided into 7 distinct color-coded zones:Red / Orange (Upper Bands): Cycle Peaks. Historically, when the Nifty enters these zones (like in 1992 and 2008), it is significantly overvalued and a correction or consolidation is likely.Yellow (Upper-Mid): Overheated. The index is trading above its fair value.Green / Cyan (Center Bands): Fair Value. This represents the "Mean" of the index. During healthy bull markets, the Nifty 50 spends the majority of its time oscillating within these zones.Blue / Purple (Lower Bands): Generational Value. These zones represent extreme undervaluation. Historically, these have aligned with major market bottoms, such as the 2003 accumulation phase, the 2008 crash bottom, and the 2020 COVID-19 lows.How to UseTimeframe: Optimized for Weekly (W) and Daily (D) views.Scale: IMPORTANT: You MUST enable Logarithmic Scale on your TradingView chart (click the 'Log' button in the bottom right) for the bands to display their intended geometric curves.Customization: You can adjust the Band Width in the settings to fine-tune how strictly the bands wrap around historical peaks and troughs.DisclaimerThis indicator is a mathematical model based on historical data. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is intended for educational and macro-analysis purposes and should not be used as the sole basis for financial decisions.
AHR999 Index (Renewed)AHR999 Indicator
The AHR999 Indicator is created by a Weibo user named ahr999. It assists Bitcoin investors in making investment decisions based on a timing strategy. This indicator implies the short-term returns of Bitcoin accumulation and the deviation of Bitcoin price from its expected valuation.
When the AHR999 index is < 0.45, it indicates a buying opportunity at a low price.
When the AHR999 index is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable for regular investment.
When the AHR999 index is > 1.2, it suggests that the coin price is relatively high and not suitable for trading.
In the long term, Bitcoin price exhibits a positive correlation with block height. By utilizing the advantage of regular investment, users can control their short-term investment costs, keeping them mostly below the Bitcoin price.
Polynomial Trend Exhaustion & DivergencePolynomial Trend Exhaustion & Divergence
Overview
This indicator combines advanced polynomial regression analysis with momentum-based exhaustion detection and forecast-based divergence signals. It identifies potential trend reversals by analyzing when price momentum is fading (exhaustion) and when price direction conflicts with the mathematical trajectory projected by cubic polynomial forecasting (divergence).
The system uses optional source smoothing (Linear Regression Blend or Kalman filtering) to reduce noise before analysis, then applies two independent detection methods to generate high-probability reversal warnings.
Exhaustion Detection
What it detects: Trend exhaustion occurs when price is still moving in one direction but the underlying momentum is weakening—a classic early warning of potential reversal.
How it works:
The indicator calculates either a cubic polynomial regression or Kalman filter trend, then monitors the slope of that trend line. Exhaustion is detected when:
Bullish Exhaustion: The slope is positive (uptrend) but the rate of change of the slope is negative (momentum decelerating)
Bearish Exhaustion: The slope is negative (downtrend) but the rate of change of the slope is positive (momentum decelerating)
Signal filtering:
Consecutive Bars Required: Exhaustion conditions must persist for a configurable number of bars before triggering
Max Repeat Signals: Limits how many consecutive exhaustion signals can fire to prevent clustering
Cooldown Period: After hitting the max signal limit, the indicator pauses before allowing new signals
This produces clean, actionable warnings rather than noise during extended exhaustion phases.
Divergence Detection
What it detects: Divergence signals identify when the polynomial-projected future price path conflicts with current price direction—suggesting price may be overextended and due for a correction toward the forecast.
How it works:
The indicator fits a cubic polynomial to recent price data and extrapolates it forward by a configurable number of bars. It then compares:
Current price direction (rising or falling over the lookback period)
Forecast position (above or below current price)
Divergence triggers when:
Bullish Divergence: Price is falling but the polynomial forecast is above current price (suggesting upward reversion)
Bearish Divergence: Price is rising but the polynomial forecast is below current price (suggesting downward reversion)
Signal filtering:
Minimum Divergence (ATR): The forecast must be at least X ATRs away from price
Minimum Price Movement (ATR): Price must have moved at least X ATRs over the lookback period (filters out sideways noise)
Consecutive Bars Required: Divergence conditions must persist for X bars before triggering
Cooldown Period: Minimum bars between divergence signals of the same type
Key Features
Dual trend methods: Choose between Polynomial Regression or Kalman filtering for the base trend calculation
Source smoothing options: None, LinReg Blend, or Kalman filter applied to OHLC data before analysis
ATR-normalized thresholds: All filter thresholds adapt to current volatility
Anti-clustering logic: Built-in repeat limits and cooldowns prevent signal spam during extended conditions
Full alert support: All four signal types (Bull/Bear Exhaustion, Bullish/Bearish Divergence) have dedicated alert conditions
Regression Slope Oscillator [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
The Regression Slope Oscillator is a trend–momentum tool that applies multiple linear regression slope calculations over different lookback ranges, then averages them into a single oscillator line. This design helps traders visualize when price is extending beyond typical regression behavior, as well as when momentum is shifting up or down.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Regression Slope – Measures the steepness and direction of price trends over a selected length.
f_log_regression(src, length) =>
float sumX = 0.0
float sumY = 0.0
float sumXSqr = 0.0
float sumXY = 0.0
for i = 0 to length - 1
val = math.log(src )
per = i + 1.0
sumX += per
sumY += val
sumXSqr += per * per
sumXY += val * per
slope = (length * sumXY - sumX * sumY) / (length * sumXSqr - sumX * sumX)
slope*-1
Multi–Sample Averaging – Instead of relying on one regression slope, the indicator loops through many lengths (from Min Range to Max Range with Step increments) and averages their slopes.
multiSlope(length)=>
// Get regression slope
slope = f_log_regression(close, length)
slopAvg.push(slope)
for i = minRange to maxRange by step
multiSlope(i)
Color Gradient – The oscillator and candles are colored dynamically from oversold (orange) to overbought (aqua), based on slope extremes observed within the user–defined Color Range.
Trend Oscillation – When the oscillator rises, price trend is strengthening; when it falls, momentum weakens.
🔵 FEATURES
Calculates regression slopes across a user–defined range (e.g., 10–100 with steps of 5).
Averages all sampled slopes into a single oscillator line.
Dynamic coloring of oscillator and chart candles based on slope values.
User–controlled Color Range :
High values (e.g., 50–100) → interpret as overbought vs oversold zones.
Low values (e.g., 2–5) → interpret as slope rising vs falling momentum shifts.
Dashboard table (top–right) displaying number of slope samples and current averaged slope value.
Candle coloring mode (optional) – candles take on the oscillator gradient color for at–a–glance reading of trend bias.
Signal Line (SMA) – A moving average of the slope oscillator used to identify momentum reversals.
Bullish Reversal Signal – Triggered when the oscillator crosses above the signal line while below zero, indicating downside momentum exhaustion and potential trend recovery.
Bearish Reversal Signal – Triggered when the oscillator crosses below the signal line while above zero, indicating upside momentum exhaustion and potential trend rollover.
Dual Placement Signals – Reversal signals are plotted both:
On the oscillator pane (for momentum context)
On the price chart (for execution alignment)
Confirmation Logic – Signals are only printed on confirmed bars to reduce repainting and false triggers.
🔵 HOW TO USE
Watch the oscillator cross above/below zero: signals shifts in regression slope direction.
Use the signal line crossovers near zero to identify early trend reversals.
Use high Color Range settings to identify potential overbought/oversold extremes in trend slope.
Use low Color Range settings for a faster, momentum–driven color change that tracks slope rising/falling.
Candle coloring highlights short–term trend pressure in sync with the oscillator.
Combine reversal signals with structure, support/resistance, or volume for higher–probability entries.
🔵 CONCLUSION
The Regression Slope Oscillator transforms raw regression slope data into a smooth, color–coded oscillator. By averaging across multiple regression lengths, it avoids the noise of single–range analysis while still capturing trend extensions and momentum shifts.
With the addition of signal line crossovers and confirmed reversal markers, the indicator now provides both trend context and actionable momentum signals within a single regression-based framework.
Linear Regression R-SquaredCalculates the least squares linear regression R-squared values for the specified data period. Values range from zero to one.
Buy sell 5 min gold V2.3 Indicator (Keep last 5): M15 Trend + M5 EMA20 Reclaim + RSI + ATR SL/TP + Trailing Runner
ETH - Log Regression BandsETH – Log Regression Bands: Detailed Description (Math + How to Use)
Overview
This indicator plots a long-term “fair value” growth curve for ETH and surrounds it with multiple upper and lower bands. The goal is to estimate where price sits relative to a long-term trend that is best interpreted in **logarithmic (percentage) terms**, not raw dollars.
The bands create clear zones showing when ETH is historically cheap or expensive relative to that long-term curve.
---
Why use logarithms?
Price action is typically more meaningful in **percentage moves** than in absolute dollar moves.
* A move from $100 → $200 is +100%
* A move from $2000 → $2100 is only +5%
By modelling the natural logarithm of price, multiplicative growth becomes additive. That makes long-term growth easier to model and band spacing more consistent across very different price regimes.
So instead of modelling (P), the indicator models:
---
The growth model: Power-law curve
The indicator uses “time since inception” as the x-axis. However, rather than using time directly, it uses the logarithm of time:
where (t) is the number of days (or bars) since the first data point.
It then fits a straight-line model in log-log space:
Substituting back in:
Exponentiating both sides gives the curve in normal price units:
This is a **power-law** trend curve. It naturally produces a smooth, slowly bending long-term curve similar to the “log regression” curves often seen in macro crypto reports.
---
What “expanding regression” means
The model uses all data available from the beginning of the chart up to the current bar. That means:
* Early in the asset’s history the curve can change more because there are fewer points.
* Over time the curve becomes more stable as more history is included.
Important note: this does **not** repaint past bars. It simply means the current curve will update as new data comes in.
---
Measuring “typical deviation” from the curve (residual volatility)
Once the trend curve is fitted in log space, the indicator measures how far price typically wanders away from it.
At any time point:
* Actual log price is (y = \ln(P))
* Predicted log price from the curve is (\hat{y} = a + b\ln(t))
The **residual** is:
The indicator computes the standard deviation of these residuals:
This (\sigma) is a measure of typical “distance from trend” in log terms.
---
Building the bands (the key idea)
The bands are evenly spaced in **log space** using multiples of (\sigma). A band number (k) is created by shifting the log-trend up or down:
Upper band (k):
Lower band (k):
Where:
* (k) is the band number (1, 2, 3, …)
* (s) is a user-chosen spacing factor (band spacing)
* (\sigma) is the residual standard deviation
Converting back to normal price:
Upper band (k):
Lower band (k):
Why bands look like “translated copies”
Because shifting by a constant in log space equals multiplying by a constant in price space:
So the bands are the same underlying curve scaled up or down by fixed multipliers. That produces the smooth “stacked curve” look associated with macro log regression charts.
---
Optional curve shift (manual adjustment)
A manual offset can be applied in log space. This is useful if you want to align the entire structure slightly higher or lower.
Because the shift is applied to (\ln(P)), this is not an additive dollar adjustment. It scales the entire curve by a constant factor:
* Positive shift → multiplies all bands upward
* Negative shift → multiplies all bands downward
---
How to interpret the zones
The base curve represents a long-term “trend center” in log-growth terms.
* Price near the base curve → near long-term trend
* Price in upper bands → expensive relative to long-term trend
* Price in lower bands → cheap relative to long-term trend
Because the bands are built using residual volatility in log space, “cheap/expensive” is measured in a way that remains meaningful across different eras and price levels.
---
Long-term buy zones (Lower 1 and Lower 2)
**Lower 1** and **Lower 2** are intended as **long-term accumulation zones**.
When ETH trades in these zones, it is significantly below the long-term growth curve in log terms, which typically corresponds to:
* deep bear markets,
* high fear / capitulation phases,
* long accumulation periods.
A simple long-term framework many users apply:
* **Accumulate gradually when price enters Lower 1**
* **Accumulate more aggressively when price enters Lower 2**
* Reduce risk / take profits progressively in higher upper bands
These are not guarantees — they are **statistical “distance from trend” zones**, designed to help structure long-term decisions.
---
## Notes / limitations
* This indicator is a **macro trend tool**, not an intraday trading system.
* The curve is derived from historical behavior; it can shift slowly as new data arrives.
* Extremely new market regimes or structural changes can reduce reliability.
* Use alongside risk management and additional confirmation if trading.
---
RSI-SAR-Fibonacci StrategyIngresar en el Retroceso del 0.61 del Fibonacci, Tp 3 a 1 o RSI en 70 o 30 Salir.
LogTrend Retest EngineLogTrend Retest Engine (LTRE)
LogTrend Retest Engine (LTRE) is an advanced trend-continuation overlay designed to identify high-probability breakout retests using logarithmic regression , volatility-adjusted deviation bands , and market regime filtering .
Unlike traditional channels or moving averages, LTRE models price behavior in log space , allowing it to adapt naturally to exponential market moves common in crypto, indices, and long-term trends.
🔹 How It Works
Logarithmic Regression Core
Performs linear regression on log-transformed price and time
Produces a structurally accurate trend midline that scales with price growth
Volatility-Adjusted Deviation Bands
Dynamic upper and lower zones based on statistical deviation
ATR weighting expands or contracts bands as volatility changes
Adaptive Lookback (Optional)
Automatically adjusts regression length using volatility pressure
Faster response in high-volatility environments, smoother in consolidation
🔹 Market Regime Detection
LTRE actively filters conditions using:
R² trend strength (trend quality, not just slope)
Volatility compression vs expansion
User-defined minimum trend strength threshold
Signals are disabled during ranging or low-quality conditions .
🔹 Breakout → Retest Signal Logic
LTRE does not chase breakouts.
Signals trigger only when:
1. Price breaks cleanly outside the deviation band
2. Market regime is confirmed as trending
3. Price performs a controlled retest within a user-defined tolerance
BUY
Break above upper band → retest → trend confirmed
SELL
Break below lower band → retest → trend confirmed
This structure is designed to reduce false breakouts and late entries.
🔹 Visual & Projection Tools
Clean midline and deviation bands
Optional filled zones
Optional future trend projection for forward structure planning
On-chart statistics for trend strength and volatility compression
🔹 Best Use Cases
Trend continuation & pullback strategies
Crypto, Forex, Indices, and equities
Works best on 15m and higher timeframes
⚠️ Disclaimer
LTRE is a decision-support tool , not a complete trading system. Always use proper risk management and confirm signals with additional structure, volume, or higher-timeframe context.
Built for traders who wait for structure — not noise.
ULTIMATE SMC FUSION 💎 ULTIMATE SMC FUSION
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A premier Smart Money Concepts (SMC) indicator that masterfully combines multi-dimensional structure analysis with precision momentum filtering. This edition is optimized for manual SMC traders looking for clarity and performance.
🚀 KEY FEATURES:
• FULL SMC SUITE: Automated Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) detection.
• HTF ADAPTIVITY: Fine-tuned logic specifically for $30m$, $1h$, and $4h$ charts to catch the major institutional moves.
• PRECISION REVERSAL ENGINE: Advanced detection for Pinbar and Engulfing patterns at key liquidity zones.
• SMART SCORING SYSTEM: Integrated analysis of ADX (Trend Strength), RSI (Momentum), and Volume.
• ZERO-API ARCHITECTURE: Streamlined for maximum efficiency on your local TradingView terminal.
• 2026 V2026 VISUALS: Modern, premium interface with glassmorphic stats and high-contrast signals.
BEST FOR: SMC Traders, Prop Firm Challenges, and High-Precision Analysis.
Feel free to adjust the settings to your own needs.
Do not put your full confidence into a script, make your own decisions allways.
Trade at your own risk.
COMBO: LuxAlgo SFP + EXTREMOS + VWAP 3rd Band + LG (15m)This is the best indicator 1h chart
High and low points daily
BTC Log RegressionLog-scale regression channel for Bitcoin. Designed to identify long-term valuation extremes in exponentially growing assets.
BTC Log Regression BTC Log Regression. This shows the peaks and troughs of BTC (or any exponentially growing asset) touching the top and bottom of a channel. You can use this to help decide if BTC is going to top or bottom in the medium term.
ALPHA FUSION FIX - RSI Extreme Strategy [Webhook Ready]Overview: This indicator is a simplified, high-precision tool focused on RSI Overbought and Oversold extremes (95/5). It was designed for traders who seek exhaustion points in the market with surgical precision.
Key Features:
Pure RSI Logic: Signals are triggered strictly at RSI 95 (Short) and RSI 5 (Long), avoiding market noise.
Automation Ready: Includes a dynamic JSON Webhook integration for automated trading on exchanges like Binance.
Risk Management: Built-in inputs for Margin, Leverage, and Max Positions directly in the UI.
Visual Aids: Includes a Trio of EMAs (28, 80, 200) for trend context.
How to use:
Attach to any chart (Optimized for 15m/1h timeframes).
Configure your Webhook Secret and risk parameters.
Set an alert using "Any alert() function call".
Kernel Filter Histogram (RBF)The Kernel Filter Histogram (RBF) is a regime-detection and edge-confirmation tool built on Gaussian (RBF) kernel regression.
It is designed to identify when market conditions are favorable for participation and when traders should stay defensive.
Instead of reacting to price noise, this indicator measures the normalized slope of a smoothed kernel regression curve, converts it into a z-score, and displays it as a histogram representing directional edge pressure.
What It Measures
Underlying market regime (bullish, bearish, or neutral)
Strength and quality of directional momentum
Statistical edge expansion vs compression
When trend continuation is more likely vs chop
How It Works
Applies Nadaraya–Watson kernel regression using a Gaussian (RBF) kernel
Calculates the slope of the regression curve
Normalizes slope using ATR for cross-instrument consistency
Converts the result into a z-score to measure statistical deviation
Smooths the output into a readable histogram + signal line
Uses an optional threshold gate to filter low-quality conditions
Reading the Histogram
Green bars → Bullish regime / positive edge
Red bars → Bearish regime / negative edge
Gray bars → Neutral / low-edge environment
Above zero → Bullish pressure dominates
Below zero → Bearish pressure dominates
Threshold gating allows you to require minimum edge strength before treating signals as actionable.
Best Use Cases
Trade filter (only take longs when bullish, shorts when bearish)
Regime confirmation for existing strategies
Momentum quality assessment
Avoiding chop and low-probability setups
Multi-timeframe alignment tool
What This Is (and Is Not)
✔ IS: A high-quality regime and edge filter
✔ IS: Designed for professional trading systems
✔ IS: Instrument-agnostic and timeframe-agnostic
✖ NOT: A buy/sell signal generator
✖ NOT: A lagging moving average
✖ NOT: A beginner indicator
Recommended Usage
Use this indicator as a gatekeeper:
Only execute setups when the histogram confirms favorable regime conditions
Combine with your entry trigger, not instead of it
Works exceptionally well with trend-following, momentum, and mean-expansion systems
Log Trend Channel Enhanced**Log Trend Channel Enhanced (LTC+)**
A logarithmic regression channel with 11 deviation bands and comprehensive statistical metrics.
**Features:**
- Logarithmic regression trendline from customizable start date
- 11 parallel bands at ±0.5σ, ±1σ, ±1.5σ, ±2σ, ±2.5σ standard deviations
- Color-coded zones (green = undervalued, red = overvalued)
**Metrics displayed:**
- R² (goodness of fit)
- Pearson correlation
- Implied CAGR (annualized return from trendline)
- Distance from trend (%)
- Current σ position
- Channel position (%)
- Historical percentile rank
**Usage:**
Ideal for long-term trend analysis on assets with exponential growth patterns. Use on log-scale charts for best visualization. Green zones near -2σ historically indicate accumulation opportunities; red zones near +2σ suggest distribution phases.
**Settings:**
- Adjustable start date (default: 1 year ago)
- Customizable colors and line widths
- Optional deviation labels
- Configurable future projection
15-Minute Squeeze Scalper (Traffic Light Edition)Overview This is a highly optimized version of the famous Squeeze Momentum Indicator, customized specifically for 15-minute scalping .
While the original indicator is powerful, the default colors can be confusing for new traders. I have recoded this to function as a simple "Traffic Light" system to help you identify periods of inaction vs. periods of high-probability breakouts.
How it Works This tool identifies when the market is "quiet" (low volatility) and getting ready to explode. It uses Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels to measure this energy.
The "Traffic Light" Visuals
🔴 RED Cross (Center Line): STOP / WAIT
Meaning: The Squeeze is ON. The market is coiling tight.
Action: Do not trade yet. Wait for the energy to release. The longer the line of red dots, the bigger the potential move.
🟢 GREEN Cross (Center Line): GO / ACTION
Meaning: The Squeeze has FIRED. Volatility is expanding.
Action: Look at the Histogram to determine the direction of the trade.
📊 Histogram Bars:
Lime/Green: Bullish Momentum (Trade Long).
Red/Maroon: Bearish Momentum (Trade Short).
The 15-Minute Scalping Strategy
Identify the Squeeze: Look for a series of Red Crosses on the zero line.
Wait for the Fire: Wait for the first Green Cross to appear.
Confirm Direction:
If the Cross turns Green AND the Histogram is above zero: LONG.
If the Cross turns Green AND the Histogram is below zero: SHORT.
Alerts Included I have added custom alerts so you don't have to stare at the screen:
"Squeeze Fired": Alerts you instantly when the Red Cross changes to Green.
"Momentum Long/Short": Alerts you when momentum flips direction.
Linear Regression Blend Candles [Adaptive]Regression Blend Candles
A hybrid candle system that blends standard OHLC candles with linear regression candles at a user-defined ratio. The result is a cleaner price representation that filters noise while preserving market structure. Adaptive modes automatically adjust the blend based on market conditions.
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𝗛𝗢𝗪 𝗜𝗧 𝗪𝗢𝗥𝗞𝗦
The indicator calculates linear regression values for each OHLC component over a lookback period, then blends them with regular candle values based on your blend percentage. At 0% you see pure price action; at 100% you see full regression candles; anything between gives you a mix.
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𝗙𝗘𝗔𝗧𝗨𝗥𝗘𝗦
◽ Blend Control
Set a fixed blend percentage or enable adaptive mode. The blend slider lets you dial in exactly how much smoothing you want—useful for finding the sweet spot between noise reduction and signal responsiveness.
◽ Adaptive Blend Modes
Let the market decide the blend ratio:
• ATR — Higher volatility increases LR blend to filter chop
• StdDev — Similar concept using standard deviation
• ATR + StdDev — Combines both volatility measures
• R-Squared — Increases blend when price fits a linear trend well (high R² = clean trend = trust the regression more)
• R² + ATR — Combines trend quality with volatility for a balanced approach
◽ R-Squared Thresholds
Fine-tune when the R² adaptive mode kicks in. Below the low threshold, blend stays at minimum. Above the high threshold, blend reaches maximum. This prevents over-smoothing during choppy, non-linear price action.
◽ Post-LR Smoothing
Apply additional smoothing to the regression values before blending:
• ALMA — Arnaud Legoux Moving Average with offset/sigma control
• Kalman — Adaptive filter that balances responsiveness and smoothness
• KAMA — Kaufman Adaptive MA that adjusts to market efficiency
◽ Advanced LR Mode
Enable weighted regression with exponential decay (emphasizes recent bars) and lag correction (extrapolates based on velocity to reduce inherent LR lag).
◽ Ghost Candles
Display faded regular candles behind the blended candles to visualize the difference and spot divergences between raw price and the smoothed representation.
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𝗦𝗨𝗚𝗚𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗗 𝗦𝗘𝗧𝗨𝗣𝗦
𝟭. 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆 (𝗦𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴)
• LR Lookback: 14
• Blend %: 60-70%
• Smoothing: None
• Ghost Candles: On
Use for cleaner swing identification. The higher blend percentage filters out intrabar noise while ghost candles let you see when price deviates significantly from the smoothed trend—potential reversal or continuation signals.
𝟮. 𝗔𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿 (𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗮𝘆)
• LR Lookback: 10
• Adaptive Blend: On
• Mode: R² + ATR
• Min/Max Blend: 25% / 75%
• R² Thresholds: 0.3 / 0.8
Ideal for intraday trading on volatile instruments. The blend automatically increases during clean trends (high R²) and volatile moves (high ATR), then backs off during choppy consolidation to keep you closer to raw price action when the regression isn't fitting well.
𝟯. 𝗨𝗹𝘁𝗿𝗮-𝗦𝗺𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗵 (𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗳𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝗮𝘀)
• LR Lookback: 20
• Blend %: 80%
• Smoothing: ALMA (offset 0.85, sigma 6)
• Advanced LR: On (decay 0.9, lag correction 1.5)
Maximum smoothing for identifying higher timeframe directional bias. The combination of longer lookback, high blend, ALMA smoothing, and lag correction creates a highly filtered view that cuts through noise. Best used on 4H+ charts or as a trend filter for lower timeframe entries.
Linear Regression ChannelsThis indicator dynamically identifies and plots the best-fit linear regression channels based on recent pivot points, optimizing for statistical strength across user-defined depths.
How It Works (Technical Methodology)
1. Pivot Point Detection
The indicator uses Pine Script's ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions with a configurable sensitivity length to detect swing highs and lows. All recent pivot indices are stored in an array (limited to avoid performance issues), providing potential starting points for regression calculations.
2. Multi-Depth Evaluation
Users input comma-separated "Pivot History Depths" (e.g., "5,20,50"). For each depth:
- The script evaluates regression fits starting from the most recent pivots, up to the specified depth count.
- It calculates linear regression statistics for each possible channel originating from those pivot bars backward to the current bar.
3. Linear Regression Calculation
For each candidate channel:
- Slope (m) and intercept (b) are computed using least-squares method.
- R-squared (R²) measures goodness of fit (how well price follows the trend line).
- Standard error of the estimate is calculated to quantify volatility around the regression line.
- A composite score = R² × log(length) prioritizes stronger fits on longer periods.
4. Best-Fit Selection and Validation
- Only channels with R² ≥ user-defined minimum (default 0.5) are considered valid.
- The channel with the highest score for each depth is selected and drawn.
- This ensures the most statistically significant and relevant channels are displayed, avoiding weak or short-term noise.
5. Channel Construction
- Mean Line: The regression trend line extended slightly into the future.
- Inner Channels: ± user-configurable standard deviation multiplier (default 2.0σ) around the mean.
- Outer Bands: ±1.5× the inner deviation for additional visual context.
- Filled areas between mean and inner channels for better visibility.
- Color: Green shades for upward slopes (bullish trend), red shades for downward slopes (bearish trend).
6. Dashboard and Statistics
- Optional table in the top-right corner displays for each depth:
- Depth value
- R² (colored green if >0.7, orange otherwise)
- Slope (Beta) – positive blue for uptrend, red for downtrend
- Current Z-Score: How many standard deviations the latest close is from the expected regression value (yellow if |Z| > 2)
How to Use
Regression channels help identify trending markets, potential mean reversion, and overextension.
- Upward Channels (Green): Price above the mean may indicate strength; pullbacks to the mean or lower band offer long opportunities. Overextension above upper band could signal exhaustion.
- Downward Channels (Red): Price below the mean may indicate weakness; rallies to the mean or upper band offer short opportunities. Overextension below lower band could signal capitulation.
- High R² (>0.7): Strong trending channel – trade in direction of slope.
- Low R²: Choppy/range-bound market – avoid trend-following trades.
- Z-Score: |Z| > 2 suggests price is statistically overextended from the trend (potential reversion setup).
- Multi-Depth: Smaller depths catch short-term trends; larger depths capture major trends. Use multiple for confluence across timeframes.
Combine with volume, support/resistance, or other indicators for confirmation.
Disclaimer
This indicator is a technical analysis tool and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.






















