Moving CO-covariance (covariance on covariance)This is Covariance on Covariance. It shows you how much a given covariance period has deviated from it mean over another defined period. Because it is a time series, It can allow you to spot changes in how covariance changes. You can apply trend lines, Fibonacci retracements, etc. This is also volume weighting covariance.
This is not a directional indicator nor is moving covariance. This is used for forecasting volatility. This must be used in conjunction with moving covariance.
Probability
Moving CovarianceCo-variance is a representation of the average percent data points deviate from there mean. A standard calculation of Co-variance uses One standard Deviation. Using the empirical rule, we can assume that about 68.26% of Data points lie in this range.
The advantage to plotting co variance as a time series is that it will show you how volatility of a trailing period changes. Therefore trend lines and other methods of analysis such as Fibonacci retracements could be applied in order to generate volatility targets.
For the purpose of this indicator I have the mean using a vwma derived from vwap. This makes this measurement of co-variance more sensitive to changes in volume, likewise are more representative a change in volatility, thus giving this indicator a "leading aspect".