BTC Price Prediction Model [Global PMI]V2🇺🇸 English Guide
1. Introduction
This indicator was created by GW Capital using Gemini Vibe Coding technology. It leverages advanced AI coding capabilities to reconstruct complex macroeconomic models into actionable trading tools.
2. Credits
Special thanks to the original model author, Marty Kendall. His research into the correlation between Bitcoin's price and macroeconomic factors lays the foundation for this algorithm.
3. Model Principles & Formula
This model calculates the "Fair Value" of Bitcoin based on four key macroeconomic pillars. It assumes that Bitcoin's price is a function of Global Liquidity, Network Security, Risk Appetite, and the Economic Cycle.
💡 Unique Insight: PMI & The 4-Year Cycle
A key distinguishing feature of this model is the hypothesis that Bitcoin's famous "4-Year Halving Cycle" may be intrinsically linked to the Global Business Cycle (PMI), rather than just supply shocks.
Therefore, the model incorporates PMI as a valuation "Amplifier".
Note: Due to TradingView data limitations, US PMI is currently used as the proxy for the global cycle.
The Formula
$$\ln(BTC) = \alpha + (1 + \beta \cdot PMI_{z}) \times $$
Global Liquidity (M2): Sum of M2 supply from US, China, Eurozone, and Japan (converted to USD). Represents the pool of fiat money available to flow into assets.
Network Security (Hashrate): Bitcoin's hashrate, representing the physical security and utility of the network.
Risk Appetite (S&P 500): Used as a proxy for global risk sentiment.
Economic Cycle (PMI Z-Score): US Manufacturing PMI is used to amplify or dampen the valuation based on where we are in the business cycle (Expansion vs. Contraction).
4. How to Use
The indicator plots the Fair Value (White Line) and four sentiment bands based on statistical deviation (Z-Score).
Sentiment Zones
🚨 Extreme Greed (Red Zone): Price > +0.3 StdDev. Historically indicates a market top or overheated sentiment.
⚠️ Greed (Orange Zone): Price > +0.15 StdDev. Bullish momentum is strong but caution is advised.
⚖️ Fair Value (White Line): The theoretical "correct" price based on macro data.
😨 Fear (Teal Zone): Price < -0.15 StdDev. Undervalued territory.
💎 Extreme Fear (Green Zone): Price < -0.3 StdDev. Historically a generational buying opportunity.
Sentiment Score (0-100)
100: Maximum Greed (Top)
50: Fair Value
0: Maximum Fear (Bottom)
5. Usage Recommendations
Timeframe: Daily (1D) or Weekly (1W) ONLY.
Reason: The underlying data sources (M2, PMI) are updated monthly. The S&P 500 and Hashrate are daily. Using this indicator on intraday charts (e.g., 15m, 1h, 4h) adds no value because the fundamental data does not change that fast.
Long-Term View: This is a macro-cycle indicator designed for identifying cycle tops and bottoms over months and years, not for day trading.
6. Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. The model relies on historical correlations which may not hold true in the future. All trading involves risk. GW Capital and the creators assume no responsibility for any trading losses.
7. Support Us ❤️
If you find this indicator useful, please Boost 👍, Comment, and add it to your Favorites! Your support keeps us going.
🇨🇳 中文说明 (Chinese Version)
1. 简介
本指标由 GW Capital 使用 Gemini Vibe Coding 技术制作。利用先进的 AI 编程能力，将复杂的宏观经济模型重构为可执行的交易工具。
2. 致谢
特别感谢模型原作者 Marty Kendall。他对这一算法的研究奠定了基础，揭示了比特币价格与宏观经济因素之间的深层联系。
3. 模型原理与公式
该模型基于四大宏观经济支柱计算比特币的“公允价值”。它假设比特币的价格是全球流动性、网络安全性、风险偏好和经济周期的函数。
💡 独家洞察：PMI 与 4年周期
本模型的一个核心独特之处在于：我们认为比特币著名的“4年减半周期”背后的真正驱动力，可能与全球商业周期 (PMI) 高度同步，而不仅仅是供应减半。
因此，模型特别引入 PMI 作为估值的“放大器” (Amplifier)。
注：由于 TradingView 数据源限制，目前采用历史数据最详尽的美国 PMI 作为全球周期的代理指标。
模型公式
$$\ln(BTC) = \alpha + (1 + \beta \cdot PMI_{z}) \times $$
全球流动性 (M2): 美、中、欧、日四大经济体的 M2 总量（折算为美元）。代表可流入资产的法币资金池。
网络安全性 (Hashrate): 比特币全网算力，代表网络的物理安全性和实用价值。
风险偏好 (S&P 500): 作为全球风险情绪的代理指标。
经济周期 (PMI Z-Score): 美国制造业 PMI 用于根据商业周期（扩张 vs 收缩）来放大或抑制估值。
4. 指标用法
指标会在图表上绘制 公允价值 (白线) 以及基于统计偏差 (Z-Score) 的四条情绪带。
情绪区间
🚨 极度贪婪 (红色区域): 价格 > +0.3 标准差。历史上通常预示市场顶部或情绪过热。
⚠️ 一般贪婪 (橙色区域): 价格 > +0.15 标准差。多头动能强劲，但需谨慎。
⚖️ 公允价值 (白线): 基于宏观数据的理论“正确”价格。
😨 一般恐惧 (青色区域): 价格 < -0.15 标准差。进入低估区域。
💎 极度恐惧 (绿色区域): 价格 < -0.3 标准差。历史上通常是代际级别的买入机会。
情绪评分 (0-100)
100: 极度贪婪 (顶部)
50: 公允价值
0: 极度恐惧 (底部)
5. 使用建议
周期: 仅限日线 (1D) 或周线 (1W)。
原因: 底层数据源（M2, PMI）是月度更新的。标普500和算力是日度更新的。在日内图表（如15分钟、1小时、4小时）上使用此指标没有任何意义，因为基本面数据不会变化得那么快。
长期视角: 这是一个宏观周期指标，旨在识别数月甚至数年的周期顶部和底部，而非用于日内交易。
6. 免责声明
本指标仅供教育和参考使用，不构成任何财务建议。该模型依赖于历史相关性，未来可能不再适用。所有交易均涉及风险。GW Capital 及制作者不对任何交易损失承担责任。
PMI
BTC Price Prediction Model [Global PMI]🇨🇳 中文说明 (Chinese Version)
1. 简介
本指标由 GW Capital 使用 Gemini Vibe Coding 技术制作。利用先进的 AI 编程能力，将复杂的宏观经济模型重构为可执行的交易工具。
2. 致谢
特别感谢模型原作者 Marty Kendall。他对这一算法的研究奠定了基础，揭示了比特币价格与宏观经济因素之间的深层联系。
3. 模型原理与公式
该模型基于四大宏观经济支柱计算比特币的“公允价值”。它假设比特币的价格是全球流动性、网络安全性、风险偏好和经济周期的函数。
模型公式
$$\ln(BTC) = \alpha + (1 + \beta \cdot PMI_{z}) \times $$
全球流动性 (M2): 美、中、欧、日四大经济体的 M2 总量（折算为美元）。代表可流入资产的法币资金池。
网络安全性 (Hashrate): 比特币全网算力，代表网络的物理安全性和实用价值。
风险偏好 (S&P 500): 作为全球风险情绪的代理指标。
经济周期 (PMI Z-Score): 美国制造业 PMI 用于根据商业周期（扩张 vs 收缩）来放大或抑制估值。
4. 指标用法
指标会在图表上绘制 公允价值 (白线) 以及基于统计偏差 (Z-Score) 的四条情绪带。
情绪区间
🚨 极度贪婪 (红色区域): 价格 > +0.3 标准差。历史上通常预示市场顶部或情绪过热。
⚠️ 一般贪婪 (橙色区域): 价格 > +0.15 标准差。多头动能强劲，但需谨慎。
⚖️ 公允价值 (白线): 基于宏观数据的理论“正确”价格。
😨 一般恐惧 (青色区域): 价格 < -0.15 标准差。进入低估区域。
💎 极度恐惧 (绿色区域): 价格 < -0.3 标准差。历史上通常是代际级别的买入机会。
情绪评分 (0-100)
100: 极度贪婪 (顶部)
50: 公允价值
0: 极度恐惧 (底部)
5. 使用建议
周期: 仅限日线 (1D) 或周线 (1W)。
原因: 底层数据源（M2, PMI）是月度更新的。标普500和算力是日度更新的。在日内图表（如15分钟、1小时、4小时）上使用此指标没有任何意义，因为基本面数据不会变化得那么快。
长期视角: 这是一个宏观周期指标，旨在识别数月甚至数年的周期顶部和底部，而非用于日内交易。
6. 免责声明
本指标仅供教育和参考使用，不构成任何财务建议。该模型依赖于历史相关性，未来可能不再适用。所有交易均涉及风险。GW Capital 及制作者不对任何交易损失承担责任。
🇺🇸 English Guide (英文说明)
1. Introduction
This indicator was created by GW Capital using Gemini Vibe Coding technology. It leverages advanced AI coding capabilities to reconstruct complex macroeconomic models into actionable trading tools.
2. Credits
Special thanks to the original model author, Marty Kendall. His research into the correlation between Bitcoin's price and macroeconomic factors lays the foundation for this algorithm.
3. Model Principles & Formula
This model calculates the "Fair Value" of Bitcoin based on four key macroeconomic pillars. It assumes that Bitcoin's price is a function of Global Liquidity, Network Security, Risk Appetite, and the Economic Cycle.
The Formula
$$\ln(BTC) = \alpha + (1 + \beta \cdot PMI_{z}) \times $$
Global Liquidity (M2): Sum of M2 supply from US, China, Eurozone, and Japan (converted to USD). Represents the pool of fiat money available to flow into assets.
Network Security (Hashrate): Bitcoin's hashrate, representing the physical security and utility of the network.
Risk Appetite (S&P 500): Used as a proxy for global risk sentiment.
Economic Cycle (PMI Z-Score): US Manufacturing PMI is used to amplify or dampen the valuation based on where we are in the business cycle (Expansion vs. Contraction).
4. How to Use
The indicator plots the Fair Value (White Line) and four sentiment bands based on statistical deviation (Z-Score).
Sentiment Zones
🚨 Extreme Greed (Red Zone): Price > +0.3 StdDev. Historically indicates a market top or overheated sentiment.
⚠️ Greed (Orange Zone): Price > +0.15 StdDev. Bullish momentum is strong but caution is advised.
⚖️ Fair Value (White Line): The theoretical "correct" price based on macro data.
😨 Fear (Teal Zone): Price < -0.15 StdDev. Undervalued territory.
💎 Extreme Fear (Green Zone): Price < -0.3 StdDev. Historically a generational buying opportunity.
Sentiment Score (0-100)
100: Maximum Greed (Top)
50: Fair Value
0: Maximum Fear (Bottom)
5. Usage Recommendations
Timeframe: Daily (1D) or Weekly (1W) ONLY.
Reason: The underlying data sources (M2, PMI) are updated monthly. The S&P 500 and Hashrate are daily. Using this indicator on intraday charts (e.g., 15m, 1h, 4h) adds no value because the fundamental data does not change that fast.
Long-Term View: This is a macro-cycle indicator designed for identifying cycle tops and bottoms over months and years, not for day trading.
6. Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. The model relies on historical correlations which may not hold true in the future. All trading involves risk. GW Capital and the creators assume no responsibility for any trading losses.
Active PMI Support/Resistance Levels [EdgeTerminal]The PMI Support & Resistance indicator revolutionizes traditional technical analysis by using Pointwise Mutual Information (PMI) - a statistical measure from information theory - to objectively identify support and resistance levels. Unlike conventional methods that rely on visual pattern recognition, this indicator provides mathematically rigorous, quantifiable evidence of price levels where significant market activity occurs.
- The Mathematical Foundation: Pointwise Mutual Information
Pointwise Mutual Information measures how much more likely two events are to occur together compared to if they were statistically independent. In our context:
Event A: Volume spikes occurring (high trading activity)
Event B: Price being at specific levels
The PMI formula calculates: PMI = log(P(A,B) / (P(A) × P(B)))
Where:
P(A,B) = Probability of volume spikes occurring at specific price levels
P(A) = Probability of volume spikes occurring anywhere
P(B) = Probability of price being at specific levels
High PMI scores indicate that volume spikes and certain price levels co-occur much more frequently than random chance would predict, revealing genuine support and resistance zones.
- Why PMI Outperforms Traditional Methods
Subjective interpretation: What one trader sees as significant, another might ignore
Confirmation bias: Tendency to see patterns that confirm existing beliefs
Inconsistent criteria: No standardized definition of "significant" volume or price action
Static analysis: Doesn't adapt to changing market conditions
No strength measurement: Can't quantify how "strong" a level truly is
PMI Advantages:
✅ Objective & Quantifiable: Mathematical proof of significance, not visual guesswork
✅ Statistical Rigor: Levels backed by information theory and probability
✅ Strength Scoring: PMI scores rank levels by statistical significance
✅ Adaptive: Automatically adjusts to different market volatility regimes
✅ Eliminates Bias: Computer-calculated, removing human interpretation errors
✅ Market Structure Aware: Reveals the underlying order flow concentrations
- How It Works
Data Processing Pipeline:
Volume Analysis: Identifies volume spikes using configurable thresholds
Price Binning: Divides price range into discrete levels for analysis
Co-occurrence Calculation: Measures how often volume spikes happen at each price level
PMI Computation: Calculates statistical significance for each price level
Level Filtering: Shows only levels exceeding minimum PMI thresholds
Dynamic Updates: Refreshes levels periodically while maintaining historical traces
Visual System:
Current Levels: Bright, thick lines with PMI scores - your actionable levels
Historical Traces: Faded previous levels showing market structure evolution
Strength Tiers: Line styles indicate PMI strength (solid/dashed/dotted)
Color Coding: Green for support, red for resistance
Info Table: Real-time display of strongest levels with scores
- Indicator Settings:
Core Parameters
Lookback Period (Default: 200)
Lower (50-100): More responsive to recent price action, catches short-term levels
Higher (300-500): Focuses on major historical levels, more stable but less responsive
Best for: Day trading (100-150), Swing trading (200-300), Position trading (400-500)
Volume Spike Threshold (Default: 1.5)
Lower (1.2-1.4): More sensitive, catches smaller volume increases, more levels detected
Higher (2.0-3.0): Only major volume surges count, fewer but stronger signals
Market dependent: High-volume stocks may need higher thresholds (2.0+), low-volume stocks lower (1.2-1.3)
Price Bins (Default: 50)
Lower (20-30): Broader price zones, less precise but captures wider areas
Higher (70-100): More granular levels, precise but may be overly specific
Volatility dependent: High volatility assets benefit from more bins (70+)
Minimum PMI Score (Default: 0.5)
Lower (0.2-0.4): Shows more levels including weaker ones, comprehensive view
Higher (1.0-2.0): Only statistically strong levels, cleaner chart
Progressive filtering: Start with 0.5, increase if too cluttered
Max Levels to Show (Default: 8)
Fewer (3-5): Clean chart focusing on strongest levels only
More (10-15): Comprehensive view but may clutter chart
Strategy dependent: Scalpers prefer fewer (3-5), swing traders more (8-12)
Historical Tracking Settings
Update Frequency (Default: 20 bars)
Lower (5-10): More frequent updates, captures rapid market changes
Higher (50-100): Less frequent updates, focuses on major structural shifts
Timeframe scaling: 1-minute charts need lower frequency (5-10), daily charts higher (50+)
Show Historical Levels (Default: True)
Enables the "breadcrumb trail" effect showing evolution of support/resistance
Disable for cleaner charts focusing only on current levels
Max Historical Marks (Default: 50)
Lower (20-30): Less memory usage, shorter history
Higher (100-200): Longer historical context but more resource intensive
Fade Strength (Default: 0.8)
Lower (0.5-0.6): Historical levels more visible
Higher (0.9-0.95): Historical levels very subtle
Visual Settings
Support/Resistance Colors: Choose colors that contrast well with your chart theme Line Width: Thicker lines (3-4) for better visibility on busy charts Show PMI Scores: Toggle labels showing statistical strength Label Size: Adjust based on screen resolution and chart zoom level
- Most Effective Usage Strategies
For Day Trading:
Setup: Lookback 100-150, Volume Threshold 1.8-2.2, Update Frequency 10-15
Use PMI levels as bounce/rejection points for scalp entries
Higher PMI scores (>1.5) offer better probability setups
Watch for volume spike confirmations at levels
For Swing Trading:
Setup: Lookback 200-300, Volume Threshold 1.5-2.0, Update Frequency 20-30
Enter on pullbacks to high PMI support levels
Target next resistance level with PMI score >1.0
Hold through minor levels, exit at major PMI levels
For Position Trading:
Setup: Lookback 400-500, Volume Threshold 2.0+, Update Frequency 50+
Focus on PMI scores >2.0 for major structural levels
Use for portfolio entry/exit decisions
Combine with fundamental analysis for timing
- Trading Applications:
Entry Strategies:
PMI Bounce Trades
Price approaches high PMI support level (>1.0)
Wait for volume spike confirmation (orange triangles)
Enter long on bullish price action at the level
Stop loss just below the PMI level
Target: Next PMI resistance level
PMI Breakout Trades
Price consolidates near high PMI level
Volume increases (watch for orange triangles)
Enter on decisive break with volume
Previous resistance becomes new support
Target: Next major PMI level
PMI Rejection Trades
Price approaches PMI resistance with momentum
Watch for rejection signals and volume spikes
Enter short on failure to break through
Stop above the PMI level
Target: Next PMI support level
Risk Management:
Stop Loss Placement
Place stops 0.1-0.5% beyond PMI levels (adjust for volatility)
Higher PMI scores warrant tighter stops
Use ATR-based stops for volatile assets
Position Sizing
Larger positions at PMI levels >2.0 (highest conviction)
Smaller positions at PMI levels 0.5-1.0 (lower conviction)
Scale out at multiple PMI targets
- Key Warning Signs & What to Watch For
Red Flags:
🚨 Very Low PMI Scores (<0.3): Weak statistical significance, avoid trading
🚨 No Volume Confirmation: PMI level without recent volume spikes may be stale
🚨 Overcrowded Levels: Too many levels close together suggests poor parameter tuning
🚨 Outdated Levels: Historical traces are reference only, not tradeable
Optimization Tips:
✅ Regular Recalibration: Adjust parameters monthly based on market regime changes
✅ Volume Context: Always check for recent volume activity at PMI levels
✅ Multiple Timeframes: Confirm PMI levels across different timeframes
✅ Market Conditions: Higher thresholds during high volatility periods
Interpreting PMI Scores
PMI Score Ranges:
0.5-1.0: Moderate statistical significance, proceed with caution
1.0-1.5: Good significance, reliable for most trading strategies
1.5-2.0: Strong significance, high-confidence trade setups
2.0+: Very strong significance, institutional-grade levels
Historical Context: The historical trace system shows how support and resistance evolve over time. When current levels align with multiple historical traces, it indicates persistent market memory at those prices, significantly increasing the level's reliability.
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a widely recognized economic indicator that provides crucial insights into the health and performance of an economy's manufacturing and services sectors. This index is a vital tool for anticipating economic developments and trends, offering an early warning system for changes in these sectors.
The PMI is calculated based on surveys conducted among purchasing managers in various businesses and organizations. These managers are asked about their perceptions of current business conditions and their expectations for future economic activity within their sectors. The responses are then compiled and used to calculate the PMI value.
A PMI value above 50 typically indicates that the manufacturing or services sector is expanding, suggesting a positive economic outlook. Conversely, a PMI value below 50 suggests contraction, which may be an early indication of economic challenges or a potential recession.
In summary, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an essential economic indicator that assesses the health of manufacturing and services sectors by surveying purchasing managers' opinions. It serves as an early warning system for changes in economic activity and is a valuable tool for forecasting economic trends and potential crises.
This code combines the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data with two Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and some visual elements.
Let's break down how this indicator works:
1. Loading PMI Data:
The indicator loads data for the "USBCOI" symbol, which represents the PMI data. It fetches the monthly closing prices of this symbol.
2. Calculating Moving Averages:
Two Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are calculated based on the PMI data. The first SMA, sma_usbcoi, has a length defined by the input parameter (default: 2). The second SMA, sma2_usbcoi, has a different length defined by the second input parameter (default: 14).
3. Color Coding and Thresholds:
The line color of the PMI plot is determined based on the value of the PMI. If the PMI is above 52, the color is teal; if it's below 48, the color is red; otherwise, it's gray. These threshold values are often used to identify specific conditions in the PMI data.
4. Crossing Indicator:
A key feature of this indicator is to determine if the PMI crosses the first SMA (sma_usbcoi) from top to bottom while also being above the value of 52. This is indicated by the crossedUp variable. This condition suggests a specific situation where the PMI crosses a short-term moving average while indicating strength (above 52).
5. Visual Elements:
A "💀" skull emoji is defined as skullEmoji.
The PMI is plotted on the chart with color coding based on its value, as described earlier.
The two SMAs are also plotted on the chart.
When the crossedUp condition is met (PMI crosses the first SMA from top to bottom while above 52), a skull emoji (indicating potential danger) is plotted at the top of the indicator window.
