FX Risk Regime (Risk-On - Risk-Off) - CompositeOverview
FX Risk Regime - Composite is a macro-driven regime detection indicator designed to classify market conditions into:
Risk-On
Risk-Off
Neutral / Transitional
The model aggregates cross-asset information from equities, volatility, USD strength, and carry flows to generate a standardised composite risk score. It is particularly useful for FX traders who trade risk-sensitive and defensive currency pairs.
This indicator does not directly predict price direction. Instead, it identifies the prevailing macro regime so traders can align directional bias and risk management accordingly.
Conceptual Framework
Financial markets tend to rotate between two dominant macro states:
Risk-On
Equities rising
Volatility falling
USD softening
Carry trades performing
Capital flows into higher-beta currencies and growth-linked assets.
Risk-Off
Equities declining
Volatility rising
USD strengthening
Carry trades unwinding
Capital rotates into defensive currencies and safe-haven assets.
This indicator quantifies these dynamics and standardises them using Z-scores to create a normalised composite regime signal.
Indicator Architecture
The model is constructed using four cross-asset components:
1. Equity Momentum (SPX)
Symbol: SP:SPX
Measures risk appetite via equity momentum
Positive equity momentum = Risk-On bias
2. Volatility Index (VIX)
Symbol: CBOE:VIX
Standardised and inverted
Rising volatility = Risk-Off
Falling volatility = Risk-On
3. USD Index (DXY)
Symbol: TVC:DXY
USD strength is associated with defensive flows
Rising DXY = Risk-Off
4. Carry Proxy (AUDJPY)
Symbol: OANDA:AUDJPY
High-beta FX pair representing global carry flows
Rising AUDJPY = Risk-On
Mathematical Construction
Each component is transformed using:
Log momentum
Rolling Z-Score normalisation
Optional EMA smoothing
Composite Score:
RawScore = Z(SPX Momentum)
+ Z(−VIX)
+ Z(−DXY Momentum)
+ Z(AUDJPY Momentum)
The result is smoothed and compared to a configurable regime threshold.
R egime Classification
Green Background
Risk-On Regime (score > +threshold)
Red Background
Risk-Off Regime (score < −threshold)
Neutral Zone
Between thresholds — transitional conditions.
What Does the 0.8 Threshold Mean?
The default threshold (0.8) represents approximately:
0.8 standard deviations above or below the composite mean.
It filters out noise and avoids reacting to minor fluctuations.
Lower threshold - more signals, more sensitivity
Higher threshold - fewer signals, stronger conviction
For swing trading, values between 0.8 and 1.2 are typically appropriate.
How to Use This Indicator
1. Regime Filter for FX Trading
Use as a directional bias filter.
In Risk-On:
Favor:
AUDJPY
NZDJPY
CADJPY
EURAUD
GBPJPY
Avoid:
USDJPY shorts
CHF strength trades
In Risk-Off:
Favor:
USDJPY longs
CHFJPY shorts
EURJPY shorts
AUDUSD shorts
Avoid:
Carry longs
2. Position Sizing Tool
Increase size in aligned regime
Reduce exposure during neutral regime
3. Strategy Overlay
Combine with:
Trend systems (EMA / MACD)
Momentum systems
Breakout systems
Carry strategies
This indicator improves expectancy by preventing trades against macro flow.
Best Timeframes
Recommended:
1H
4H
Daily
Lower timeframes may be noisy because macro variables update at slower frequencies.
Asset Classes Where It Works Best
FX Pairs:
- JPY crosses
- Commodity currencies
- High beta crosses
Indices:
- DAX
- Nasdaq
- S&P500
Commodities:
- Oil
- Copper
Crypto:
- BTCUSD (during macro-correlated phases)
Strengths
Cross-asset driven
Macro consistent
Quantitative standardization
Regime persistence model (state memory)
Adaptable threshold
Fully transparent logic
Limitations
Not a predictive model
Reacts with slight lag
May misclassify during structural regime shifts
Dependent on external symbol data availability
Regime changes can be violent. Use risk management.
Suggested Improvements (Advanced Users)
For advanced research:
Weight components by historical Information Ratio
Use dynamic thresholds based on rolling volatility
Add bond yield spreads (US10Y vs JGB)
Add credit spreads (CDX)
Add copper/gold ratio
Customization
All major parameters are configurable:
Z-Score Lookback
Momentum Lookback
Threshold
Smoothing
Symbols
This allows adaptation for:
Short-term trading
Swing trading
Macro overlay models
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