BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis [OmegaTools]BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis is a macro-valuation and regime-detection model designed to contextualize Bitcoin’s price through relative market-cap comparisons against major capital reservoirs: Gold, Silver, the Altcoin market, and large-cap equities. Instead of relying on traditional on-chain metrics or purely technical signals, this tool frames BTC as an asset competing for global liquidity and “store-of-value mindshare”, then estimates an implied fair value based on how BTC historically coexists (or diverges) from these benchmark universes.
Core concept: relative market-cap anchoring
The indicator builds a reference-based fair price by translating external market capitalizations into implied BTC valuation using a dominance framework. In practice, you choose one or more reference universes (Gold, Silver, Altcoins, Stocks). For each selected universe, the script computes how large BTC “should be” relative to that universe (dominance ratio), and converts that into an implied BTC price. The final fair price is the average of the implied prices from the enabled universes.
Two dominance modes: automatic vs manual
1. Automatic Dominance % (default)
When enabled, the model estimates dominance ratios dynamically using a 252-period simple moving average of BTC market cap divided by each reference market cap. This produces an adaptive baseline that follows structural changes over time and reduces sensitivity to short-term spikes.
2. Manual Dominance %
If you prefer a discretionary macro thesis, you can directly input dominance parameters for each reference universe. This is useful when you want to stress-test scenarios (e.g., “BTC should converge toward X% of Gold’s market cap”) or align the model with a specific long-term adoption narrative.
Reference universes and data construction
- BTC market cap: pulled from CRYPTOCAP:BTC.
- Gold and Silver market caps: derived from the corresponding futures symbols (GC1!, SI1!) multiplied by an assumed total above-ground quantity (constant tonnage converted to troy ounces). This provides a practical and tradable proxy for spot valuation context.
- Altcoin market cap: pulled from CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 (total crypto market excluding BTC).
- Stocks market cap proxy (Σ3): a deliberately conservative equity benchmark built from three mega-cap stocks (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN) using total shares outstanding (request.financial) multiplied by price. This avoids index licensing complexity while still tracking a meaningful slice of global equity beta/liquidity.
Valuation output: overvalued vs undervalued (log-based)
The valuation readout is expressed as a percentage derived from the logarithmic distance between BTC price and the model’s fair price. This choice makes valuation comparable across long time horizons and reduces distortion during exponential growth phases. A positive valuation indicates BTC trading below the model’s implied value (undervalued), while a negative valuation indicates trading above it (overvalued).
Oscillator: relative momentum and regime confirmation
In addition to fair value, the indicator includes a momentum differential oscillator built from RSI(50):
- BTC RSI is compared to the average RSI of the selected reference universes.
- The oscillator highlights when BTC strength is leading or lagging the broader macro benchmarks.
- Color is rendered through a gradient to provide immediate regime readability (risk-on vs risk-off behavior, expansion vs contraction phases).
Visualization and UI components
- Fair Price overlay: the computed fair price is plotted directly on the BTC chart for immediate comparison with spot price action.
- Valuation shading: the area between price and fair price is filled to visually emphasize dislocation and potential mean-reversion zones.
- Oscillator panel: a zero-centered oscillator with filled bands helps you identify persistent trend regimes versus transitional conditions.
- Summary table: a right-side table displays the current valuation (over/under) and, when Automatic mode is enabled, the live dominance ratios used in the model (BTC/GOLD, BTC/SILVER, BTC/ALTC, BTC/STOCKS).
How to use it (practical workflows)
- Macro valuation context: use fair price as a structural anchor to assess whether BTC is trading at a premium or discount relative to external liquidity baselines.
- Regime filtering: combine valuation with the oscillator to distinguish “cheap but weak” from “cheap and strengthening” (and the inverse for tops).
- Mean-reversion mapping: large, persistent deviations from fair value often highlight speculative extremes or capitulation zones; this can support systematic entries/exits, position sizing, or hedging decisions.
- Scenario analysis: switch to Manual Dominance % to model adoption outcomes, policy-driven shifts, or multi-year re-rating assumptions.
Important notes and limitations (read before use)
- This is a hypothesis-driven macro model, not a literal intrinsic value calculation. Results depend on dominance assumptions, proxies, and data availability.
- Gold/Silver market caps are approximations based on futures pricing and fixed supply constants; real-world supply dynamics, above-ground estimates, and spot/futures basis can differ.
- The Stocks (Σ3) benchmark is a proxy and intentionally not “the whole market”. It is designed to represent a large-cap liquidity reference, not total equity capitalization.
- Always validate signals with additional context (market structure, volatility regime, risk management rules). This indicator is best used as a macro layer in a broader decision framework.
Designed for clarity, macro discipline, and repeatability
BTC Fundamental Value Hypothesis by OmegaTools is built for traders and investors who want a clean, data-driven way to interpret BTC through the lens of competing asset classes and capital flows. It is particularly effective on higher timeframes (Daily/Weekly) where macro relationships are more stable and valuation signals are less noisy.
© OmegaTools, Eros
Intermarketanalysis
Intermarket Correlation Oscillator (ICO)The Intermarket Correlation Oscillator (ICO) is a TradingView indicator that helps traders analyze the relationship between two assets, such as stocks, indices, or cryptocurrencies, by measuring their price correlation. It displays this correlation as an oscillator ranging from -1 to +1, making it easy to spot whether the assets move together, oppositely, or independently. A value near +1 indicates strong positive correlation (assets move in the same direction), near -1 shows strong negative correlation (opposite movements), and near 0 suggests no correlation. This tool is ideal for confirming trends, spotting divergences, or identifying hedging opportunities across markets.
How It Works?
The ICO calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient between the chart’s primary asset (e.g., Apple stock) and a secondary asset you choose (e.g., SPY for the S&P 500) over a specified number of bars (default: 20). The oscillator is plotted in a separate pane below the chart, with key levels at +0.8 (overbought, strong positive correlation) and -0.8 (oversold, strong negative correlation). A midline at 0 helps gauge neutral correlation. When the oscillator crosses these levels or the midline, labels ("OB" for overbought, "OS" for oversold) and alerts notify you of significant shifts. Shaded zones highlight extreme correlations (red for overbought, green for oversold) if enabled.
Why Use the ICO?
Trend Confirmation: High positive correlation (e.g., SPY and QQQ both rising) confirms market trends.
Divergence Detection: Negative correlation (e.g., DXY rising while stocks fall) signals potential reversals.
Hedging: Identify negatively correlated assets to balance your portfolio.
Market Insights: Understand how assets like stocks, bonds, or crypto interact.
Easy Steps to Use the ICO in TradingView
Add the Indicator:
Open TradingView and load your chart (e.g., AAPL on a daily timeframe).
Go to the Pine Editor at the bottom of the TradingView window.
Copy and paste the ICO script provided earlier.
Click "Add to Chart" to display the oscillator below your price chart.
Configure Settings:
Click the gear icon next to the indicator’s name in the chart pane to open settings.
Secondary Symbol: Choose an asset to compare with your chart’s symbol (e.g., "SPY" for S&P 500, "DXY" for USD Index, or "BTCUSD" for Bitcoin). Default is SPY.
Correlation Lookback Period: Set the number of bars for calculation (default: 20). Use 10-14 for short-term trading or 50 for longer-term analysis.
Overbought/Oversold Levels: Adjust thresholds (default: +0.8 for overbought, -0.8 for oversold) to suit your strategy. Lower values (e.g., ±0.7) give more signals.
Show Midline/Zones: Check boxes to display the zero line and shaded overbought/oversold zones for visual clarity.
Interpret the Oscillator:
Above +0.8: Strong positive correlation (red zone). Assets move together.
Below -0.8: Strong negative correlation (green zone). Assets move oppositely.
Near 0: No clear relationship (midline reference).
Labels: "OB" or "OS" appears when crossing overbought/oversold levels, signaling potential correlation shifts.
Set Up Alerts:
Right-click the indicator, select "Add Alert."
Choose conditions like "Overbought Alert" (crossing above +0.8), "Oversold Alert" (crossing below -0.8), or zero-line crossings for bullish/bearish correlation shifts.
Configure notifications (e.g., email, SMS) to stay informed.
Apply to Trading:
Use positive correlation to confirm trades (e.g., buy AAPL if SPY is rising and correlation is high).
Spot divergences for reversals (e.g., stocks dropping while DXY rises with negative correlation).
Combine with other indicators like RSI or moving averages for stronger signals.
Tips for New Users
Start with related assets (e.g., SPY and QQQ for tech stocks) to see clear correlations.
Test on a demo account to understand signals before trading live.
Be aware that correlation is a lagging indicator; confirm signals with price action.
If the secondary symbol doesn’t load, ensure it’s valid on TradingView (e.g., use correct ticker format).
The ICO is a powerful, beginner-friendly tool to explore intermarket relationships, enhancing your trading decisions with clear visual cues and alerts.
Intermarket Correlation TableThe Correlation Coefficient is used to measure the correlation between two sets of data. In the trading world, the Correlation Coefficient is a measure of the correlation between two data sets of financial instruments. The correlation between two financial instruments is the degree in which they are related. Correlation is based on a scale of 1 to -1. The closer the Correlation Coefficient is to 1, the higher their positive correlation. The instruments will move up and down together. The closer the Correlation coefficient is to -1, the more they move in opposite directions. A value at 0 indicates that there is no correlation.
This indicator uses the built in ta.correlation function to calculate the correlation coefficient between DXY and NQ, ES, YM, US10Y, and ZN respectively. It then presents the data in a customizable table that is view as an overlay on your chart.
Adjust the length of the correlation factor to calculate higher time frame correlation.
Asset background changes based on current candle direction.
Coefficient background color changes based on whether the assets are properly correlated.
DXY is inversely correlated to NQ, ES, YM, and ZN.
DXY is directly correlated to US10Y.
The colors are reflected as such.
Strength Comparison @joshuuuexample:
if you want to find the stronger/weaker pair between eurusd and gbpusd, what you can do is check the eurgbp charts. if eurgbp is bullish, that means, that longs longs on eurusd are better than on gbpusd.
Unfortunately, there is no such thing to compare for example usoil with ukoil, or us100 with us500.
That's where this indicator comes in handy. You can choose whatever two symbols you want, that are supported by tradingview and you will get a chart, which shows symbol1/symbol2.
Now you can use normal market structure, or the ema option, to find out the stronger symbol.
This can also help predicting the so called SMT Divergences, taught by ICT.
⚠️ Open Source ⚠️
Coders and TV users are authorized to copy this code base, but a paid distribution is prohibited. A mention to the original author is expected, and appreciated.
⚠️ Terms and Conditions ⚠️
This financial tool is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Users assume responsibility for decisions made based on the tool's information. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. By using this tool, users agree to these terms.
