Forecast
Grand Trend Forecasting - A Simple And Original Approach Today we'll link time series forecasting with signal processing in order to provide an original and funny trend forecasting method, the post share lot of information, if you just want to see how to use the indicator then go to the section "Using The Indicator".
Time series forecasting is an area dealing with the prediction of future values of a series by using a specific model, the model is the main tool that is used for forecasting, and is often an expression based on a set of predictor terms and parameters, for example the linear regression (model) is a 1st order polynomial (expression) using 2 parameters and a predictor variable ax + b . Today we won't be using the linear regression nor the LSMA.
In time series analysis we can describe the time series with a model, in the case of the closing price a simple model could be as follows :
Price = Trend + Cycles + Noise
The variables of the model are the components, such model is additive since we add the component with each others, we should be familiar with each components of the model, the trend represent a simple long term variation of high amplitude, the cycles are periodic fluctuations centered around 0 of varying period and amplitude, the noise component represent shorter term irregular variations with mean 0.
As a trader we are mostly interested by the cycles and the trend, altho the cycles are relatively more technical to trade and can constitute parasitic fluctuations (think about retracements in a trend affecting your trend indicator, causing potential false signals).
If you are curious, in signal processing combining components has a specific name, "synthesis" , here we are dealing with additive synthesis, other type of synthesis are more specific to audio processing and are relatively more complex, but could be used in technical analysis.
So what to do with our components ? If we want to trade the trend, we should estimate right ? Estimating the trend component involve removing the cycle and noise component from the price, if you have read stuff about filters you should know where i'am going, yep, we should use filters, in the case of keeping the trend we can use a simple moving average of relatively high period, and here we go.
However the lag problem, which is recurrent, come back again, we end up with information easier to interpret (here the trend, which is a simple fluctuation such as a line or other smooth curve) at the cost of decision timing, that is unfortunate but as i said the information, here the moving average output, is relatively simple, and could be easily forecasted right ? If you plot a moving average of high period it would be easier for you to forecast its future values. And thats what we aim to do today, provide an estimate of the trend that should be easy to forecast, and should fit to the price relatively well in order to produce forecast that could determine the position of future closing prices observations.
Estimating And Forecasting The Trend
The parameter of the indicator dealing with the estimation of the trend is length , with higher values of length attenuating the cycle and noise component in the price, note however that high values of length can return a really long term trend unlike a simple moving average, so a small value of length, 14 for example can still produce relatively correct estimate of trend.
here length = 14.
The rough estimate of the trend is t in the code, and is an IIR filter, that is, it is based on recursion. Now i'll pass on the filter design explanation but in short, weights are constants, with higher weights allocated to the previous length values of the filter, you can see on the code that the first part of t is similar to an exponential moving average with :
t(n) = 0.9t(n-length) + 0.1*Price
However while the EMA only use the precedent value for the recursion, here we use the precedent length value, this would just output a noisy and really slow output, therefore in order to create a better fit we add : 0.9*(t(n-length) - t(n-2length)) , and this create the rough trend estimate that you can see in blue. On the parameters, 0.9 is used since it gives the best estimate in my opinion, higher values would create more periodic output and lower values would just create a rougher output.
The blue line still contain a residual of the cycle/noise component, this is why it is smoothed with a simple moving average of period length. If you are curious, a filter estimating the trend but still containing noisy fluctuations is called "Notch" filter, such filter would depending on the cutoff remove/attenuate mid term cyclic fluctuations while preserving the trend and the noise, its the opposite of a bandpass filter.
In order to forecast values, we simply sum our trend estimate with the trend estimate change with period equal to the forecasting horizon period, this is a really really simple forecasting method, but it can produce decent results, it can also allows the forecast to start from the last point of the trend estimate.
Using The Indicator
We explained the length parameter in the precedent section, src is the input series which the trend is estimated, forecast determine the forecasting horizon, recommend values for forecast should be equal to length, length/2 or length*2, altho i strongly recommend length.
here length and forecast are both equal to 14 .
The corrective parameter affect the trend estimate, it reduce the overshoot and can led to a curve that might fit better to the price.
The indicator with the non corrective version above, and the corrective one below.
The source parameter determine the source of the forecast, when "Noisy" is selected the source is the blue line, and produce a noisy forecast, when "Smooth" is selected the source is the moving average of t , this create a smoother forecast.
The width interval control...the width of the intervals, they can be seen above and under the forecast plot, they are constructed by adding/subtracting the forecast with the forecast moving average absolute error with respect to the price. Prediction intervals are often associated with a probability (determining the probability of future values being between the interval) here we can't determine such probability with accuracy, this require (i think) an analysis of the forecasting distribution as well as assumptions on the distribution of the forecasting error.
Finally it is possible to see historical forecasts, that is, forecasts previously generated by checking the "Show Historical Forecasts" option.
Examples
Good forecasts mostly occur when the price is close to the trend estimate, this include the following highlighted periods on AMD 15TF with default settings :
We can see the same thing at the end of EURUSD :
However we can't always obtain suitable fits, here it is isn't sufficient on BTCUSD :
We can see wide intervals, we could change length or use the corrective option to get better results, another option is to use a log scale.
We will end the examples with the log SPX, who posses a linear trend, so for example a linear model such as a linear regression would be really adapted, lets see how the indicator perform :
Not a great fit, we could try to use an higher length value and use "Smooth" :
Most recent fits are quite decent.
Conclusions
A forecasting indicator has been presented in this post. The indicator use an original approach toward estimating the trend component in the closing price. Of course i should have given statistics related to the forecasting error, however such analysis is worth doing with better methods and in more advanced environment allowing for optimization.
But we have learned some stuff related to signal processing as well as time series analysis, seeing a time series as the sum of various components is really helpful when it comes to make sense of chaotic and noisy series and is a basic topic in time series analysis.
You can see that in this new year i work harder on the visual of my indicators without trying to fall in the label addict trap, something that i wasn't really doing before, let me know what do you think of it.
Thanks for reading !
Volatility ForecasterThe indicator predicts periods of increased market volatility on 24 hours ahead, based on statistical data. It shows a time intervals, when it is better to give special attention to a market. Time, when the probability of market acceleration, momentum or a trend reversal becomes most likely. The idea is based on a simple logical conclusion – if the market was volatile in the same time periods in the past, then this will happen again in the future.
English - Full description and instruction
The indicator is useful for all markets. But especially for cryptocurrency, which, unlike stock market or forex, doesn’t have time-limited trading sessions and weekends. Therefore, statistical analysis is the only way to reliably determine periods of increased activity of market participants.
The indicator can't predict all volatility. But it provides a fairly accurate prediction of statistical volatility, - one that periodically occurs at the same time.
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Индикатор прогнозирует периоды повышенной волатильности рынка на 24 часа вперёд, основываясь на статистических данных. Он показывает временные интервалы при которых стоит уделить рынку повышенное внимание, когда вероятность ускорения рынка, импульса или перелома тренда, становится наиболее вероятным. Идея строиться на простом логическом выводе, - если рынок был волатилен в одни и те же временные периоды в прошлом, то это повторится в будущем.
Русский - Полное описание и инструкция
Индикатор полезен для всех рынков. Но особенно для криптовалютного, который в отличии от фондового или форекс не имеет ограниченных по времени торговых сессий и не рабочих дней. По этому, статистический анализ единственный способ надежно определить периоды повышенной активности участников рынка.
Индикатор не может предсказать всю волатильность. Но обеспечивает достаточно точное предсказание статистической волатильности, - такой которая периодически возникает в одно и то же время.
Neural Network CCI - RSIThis is a test of neural network with one layer.
Two layers will follow soon.
Signals are given by CCI or RSI.
Method 1 triggers a change of oscillator (buy if >0)
Method 2 triggers oscillator over 0 (for CCI only)
How to use:
1- launch the strategy on a chart,
2- open "Strategy Tester" tab
3- open startegy option panel
4- modify x11, x12, x13 and x14 to get the best results (net profit, profit factor, drawdown, etc...)
5- repeat once a week
Need help with self-optimization: I couldn't yet found a formula to optimize profit or win% or whatever changing values of x11, x12, x13 and x14 inside the strategy.
ANN Next Coming Candlestick Forecast SPX 1D v1.0WARNING:
Experimental and incomplete.
Script is open to development and will be developed.
This is just version 1.0
STRUCTURE
This script is trained according to the open, close, high and low values of the bars.
It is tried to predict the future values of opening, closing, high and low values.
A few simple codes were used to correlate expectation with current values. (You can see between line 129 - 159 )
Therefore, they are all individually trained.
You can see in functions.
The average training error of each variable is less than 0.011.
NOTE :
This script is designed for experimental use on S & P 500 and connected instruments only on 1-day bars.
The Plotcandle function is inspired by the following script of alexgrover :
Since we estimate the next values, our error rates should be much lower for all candlestick values. This is just first version to show logic.
I will continue to look for other variables to reach average error = 0.001 - 0.005 for each candlestick status.
Feel free to use and improve , this is open-source.
Best regards.
Fancy Moving Average [BigBitsIO]This script is for a single moving average with as many features as I can possibly fit into a single moving average. If you can think of more, or have questions regarding this script, please message me or contact me via social media.
Features:
- A single moving average (MA).
- Standard MA inputs.
- MA type.
- MA period.
- MA price.
- MA resolution (time frame).
- Visibility toggle.
- Fancy MA inputs.
- Toggle to show only candles included in the MA calculation ("Highlight inclusion") or display entire MA history.
- Toggle to show a ghost trail when Highlight inclusion is toggled on. Displays a shaded version of past MA history before the inclusion period (as seen on snapshot).
- Toggle to show forecast values for the MA.
- Other inputs related to forecasting:
- Forecast bias. (Neutral forecasts MA if the current price remains the same.)
- Forecast period.
- Forecast magnitude.
*** DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB. ***
ANN Forecast Dependent Variable Odd GeneratorHello , this script is the ANN Forecast version of my "Dependent Variable Odd Generator " script.
I went to simplify a bit because the deep learning calculations are too much for this command.
The latest instruments included:
WTI : West Texas Intermediate (WTICOUSD , USOIL , CL1! ) Average error : 0.007593
BRENT : Brent Crude Oil ( BCOUSD , UKOIL , BB1! ) Average error : 0.006591
GOLD : XAUUSD , GOLD , GC1! Average error : 0.012767
SP500 : S&P 500 Index ( SPX500USD , SP1! ) Average error : 0.011650
EURUSD : Eurodollar ( EURUSD , 6E1! , FCEU1!) Average error : 0.005500
ETHUSD : Ethereum ( ETHUSD , ETHUSDT ) Average error : 0.009378
BTCUSD : Bitcoin ( BTCUSD , BTCUSDT , XBTUSD , BTC1! ) Average error : 0.01050
GBPUSD : British Pound ( GBPUSD , 6B1! , GBP1!) Average error : 0.009999
USDJPY : US Dollar / Japanese Yen ( USDJPY , FCUY1!) Average error : 0.009198
USDCHF : US Dollar / Swiss Franc ( USDCHF , FCUF1! ) Average error : 0.009999
USDCAD : Us Dollar / Canadian Dollar ( USDCAD ) Average error : 0.012162
VIX : S & P 500 Volatility Index (VX1! , VIX ) Average error : 0.009999
ES : S&P 500 E-Mini Futures ( ES1! ) Average error : 0.010709
SSE : Shangai Stock Exchange Composite (Index ) ( 000001 ) Average error : 0.011287
XRPUSD : Ripple (XRPUSD , XRPUSDT ) Average error : 0.009803
Simply select the required instrument from the tradingview analysis screen, then add this command and select the same instrument from the settings section.
The codes are not open-source because they contain forecast algorithm codes a little that I will use commercially in the future.
However, I will never remove this script, and you can use it for free unlimitedly.
For more information about my artificial neural network forecast series:
For more information about my dependent variable odd generator :
For more information about simple artificial neural networks :
(detailed information about ANN )
(25 in 1 version )
I hope it helps in your analysis. Regards , Noldo .
NOTE : In the first pass bar of the definite positive and negative zone, alerts are added for both conditions.
[RS][V4]ZigZag Percent Reversal - Helper - AntiSlopeEXPERIMENTAL:
A helper script to map the Anti derivative slopes.
ANN Forecast Stochastic Oscillator [Noldo] In this script, I tried to integrate ANN Forecast Algorithm on Stochastic Oscillator.
It took me quite a while, but i guess it worth.
After selecting the ticker, select the instrument from the menu and the system will automatically turn on the appropriate Forecast Stoch system.
The system is trained with ANN values of ANN MACD 25 in 1.
The Forecast algorithm is not open-source.
But I'm never remove this script.
You can use it forever for free.
As you can see in the presentation, although it is in the same period, it is more accurate and agile than standard Stochastic Oscillator .
I think even a bar is important in trade.
For those who don't see that command,listed instruments with alternative tickers and error rates:
WTI : West Texas Intermediate (WTICOUSD , USOIL , CL1! ) Average error : 0.007593
BRENT : Brent Crude Oil ( BCOUSD , UKOIL , BB1! ) Average error : 0.006591
GOLD : XAUUSD , GOLD , GC1! Average error : 0.012767
SP500 : S&P 500 Index ( SPX500USD , SP1! ) Average error : 0.011650
EURUSD : Eurodollar ( EURUSD , 6E1! , FCEU1!) Average error : 0.005500
ETHUSD : Ethereum ( ETHUSD , ETHUSDT ) Average error : 0.009378
BTCUSD : Bitcoin ( BTCUSD , BTCUSDT , XBTUSD , BTC1! ) Average error : 0.01050
GBPUSD : British Pound ( GBPUSD , 6B1! , GBP1!) Average error : 0.009999
USDJPY : US Dollar / Japanese Yen ( USDJPY , FCUY1!) Average error : 0.009198
USDCHF : US Dollar / Swiss Franc ( USDCHF , FCUF1! ) Average error : 0.009999
USDCAD : Us Dollar / Canadian Dollar ( USDCAD ) Average error : 0.012162
SOYBNUSD : Soybean ( SOYBNUSD , ZS1! ) Average error : 0.010000
CORNUSD : Corn ( ZC1! ) Average error : 0.007574
NATGASUSD : Natural Gas ( NATGASUSD , NG1! ) Average error : 0.010000
SUGARUSD : Sugar ( SUGARUSD , SB1! ) Average error : 0.011081
WHEATUSD : Wheat ( WHEATUSD , ZW1! ) Average error : 0.009980
XPTUSD : Platinum ( XPTUSD , PL1! ) Average error : 0.009964
XU030 : Borsa Istanbul 30 Futures ( XU030 , XU030D1! ) Average error : 0.010727
VIX : S & P 500 Volatility Index (VX1! , VIX ) Average error : 0.009999
ES : S&P 500 E-Mini Futures ( ES1! ) Average error : 0.010709
SSE : Shangai Stock Exchange Composite (Index ) ( 000001 ) Average error : 0.011287
XRPUSD : Ripple (XRPUSD , XRPUSDT ) Average error : 0.009803
Extras :
- Crossover and crossunder alerts
- Switchable barcolor
NOTE :
Australian Dollar / US Dollar ( AUDUSD ) removed due to high average error. (Average error > 0.013 )
Timeframe advice :
I suggest you to use that system TF >= 1D
My favorite is 1 week bars. (1W)
More info about forecast series (My last forecast example ) :
Special thanks :
Special thanks to dear wroclai for his great effort .
NOTE : I decided to build Autonomous LSTM on Stochastic Oscillator , i think Stochastic Oscillator one of the best and it contains naturally high-lows.
ANN Forecast MACD [Noldo] In this script, I tried to convert ANN MACD to MACD Forecast.
It took me quite a while, but it was fun.
After selecting the ticker, select the instrument from the menu and the system will automatically turn on the appropriate Forecast MACD system.
The system is trained with ANN values of ANN MACD 25 in 1.
But because the system is overloaded, only the most popular instruments are left.
The others were unfortunately eliminated.
The only difference is that it was built on the forecast algorithm of my own creation.
The Forecast algorithm is not open-source.
The codes are a nice framework for some of my most valuable systems about ANN . (Working on them. )
But I'm never remove this script.
You can use it forever for free.
As you can see in the presentation, although it is in the same period, it is more accurate and agile than normal MACD.
I think even a bar is important in trade.
For those who don't see that command,listed instruments with alternative tickers and error rates:
WTI : West Texas Intermediate (WTICOUSD , USOIL , CL1! ) Average error : 0.007593
BRENT : Brent Crude Oil ( BCOUSD , UKOIL , BB1! ) Average error : 0.006591
GOLD : XAUUSD , GOLD , GC1! Average error : 0.012767
SP500 : S&P 500 Index ( SPX500USD , SP1! ) Average error : 0.011650
EURUSD : Eurodollar ( EURUSD , 6E1! , FCEU1!) Average error : 0.005500
ETHUSD : Ethereum ( ETHUSD , ETHUSDT ) Average error : 0.009378
BTCUSD : Bitcoin ( BTCUSD , BTCUSDT , XBTUSD , BTC1! ) Average error : 0.01050
GBPUSD : British Pound ( GBPUSD , 6B1! , GBP1!) Average error : 0.009999
USDJPY : US Dollar / Japanese Yen ( USDJPY , FCUY1!) Average error : 0.009198
USDCHF : US Dollar / Swiss Franc ( USDCHF , FCUF1! ) Average error : 0.009999
USDCAD : Us Dollar / Canadian Dollar ( USDCAD ) Average error : 0.012162
SOYBNUSD : Soybean ( SOYBNUSD , ZS1! ) Average error : 0.010000
CORNUSD : Corn ( ZC1! ) Average error : 0.007574
NATGASUSD : Natural Gas ( NATGASUSD , NG1! ) Average error : 0.010000
SUGARUSD : Sugar ( SUGARUSD , SB1! ) Average error : 0.011081
WHEATUSD : Wheat ( WHEATUSD , ZW1! ) Average error : 0.009980
XPTUSD : Platinum ( XPTUSD , PL1! ) Average error : 0.009964
XU030 : Borsa Istanbul 30 Futures ( XU030 , XU030D1! ) Average error : 0.010727
VIX : S & P 500 Volatility Index (VX1! , VIX ) Average error : 0.009999
ES : S&P 500 E-Mini Futures ( ES1! ) Average error : 0.010709
SSE : Shangai Stock Exchange Composite (Index ) ( 000001 ) Average error : 0.011287
XRPUSD : Ripple (XRPUSD , XRPUSDT ) Average error : 0.009803
Extras :
- Crossover and crossunder alerts
- Switchable barcolor
NOTE :
Australian Dollar / US Dollar (AUDUSD ) removed due to high average error. (Average error > 0.013 )
Timeframe advice :
I suggest you to use that system TF >= 1D
My favorite is 1 week bars. (1W)
Info about forecast series :
www.sciencedirect.com
Special thanks :
Special thanks to dear wroclai for his great effort .
Quadratic Least Squares Moving Average - Smoothing + Forecast Introduction
Technical analysis make often uses of classical statistical procedures, one of them being regression analysis, and since fitting polynomial functions that minimize the sum of squares can be achieved with the use of the mean, variance, covariance...etc, technical analyst only needed to replace the mean in all those calculations with a moving average, we then end up with a low lag filter called least squares moving average (lsma) .
The least squares moving average could be classified as a rolling linear regression, altho this sound really bad it is useful to understand the relationship of both methods, both have the same form, that is ax + b , where a and b are coefficients of the model. However in a simple linear regression a and b are constant, while the lsma use variables instead.
In a simple lsma we model the relationship of the closing price (dependent variable) with a linear sequence (independent variable), therefore x = 1,2,3,4..etc. However we can use polynomial of higher degrees to model such relationship, this is required if we want more reactivity. Therefore we can use a quadratic form, that is ax^2 + bx + c , where a,b and c are variables.
This is the quadratic least squares moving average (qlsma), a not so official term, but we'll stick with it because it still represent the aim of the filter quite well. In this indicator i make the calculations of the qlsma less troublesome, therefore one might understand how it would work, note that in general the coefficients of a polynomial regression model are found using matrix calculus.
The Indicator
A qlsma, unlike the classic lsma, will fit better to the price and will be more reactive, this is the advantage of using an higher degrees for its calculation, we can model more complex relationship.
lsma in green, qlsma in red, with both length = 200
However the over/under shoots are greater, i'll explain why in the next sections, but this is one of the drawbacks of using higher degrees.
The indicator allow to forecast future values, the ahead period of the forecast is determined by the forecast setting. The value for this setting should be lower than length, else the forecasts can easily over/under shoot which heavily damage the forecast. In order to get a view on how well the forecast is performing you can check the option "Show past predicted values".
Of course understanding the logic behind the forecast is important, in short regressions models best fit a certain curve to the data, this curve can be a line (linear regression), a parabola (quadratic regression) and so on, the type of curve is determined by the degree of the polynomial used, here 2, which is a parabola. Lets use a linear regression model as example :
ax + b where x is a linear sequence 1,2,3...and a/b are constants. Our goal is to find the values for a and b that minimize the sum of squares of the line with the dependent variable y, here the closing price, so our hypothesis is that :
closing price = ax + b + ε
where ε is white noise, a component that the model couldn't forecast. The forecast of the closing price 14 step ahead would be equal to :
closing price 14 step aheads = a(x+14) + b
Since x is a linear sequence we only need to sum it with the forecasting horizon period, the same is done here with :
a*(n+forecast)^2 + b*(n + forecast) + c
Note that the forecast proposed in the indicator is more for teaching purpose that anything else, this indicator can't possibly forecast future values, even on a meh rate.
Low lag filters have been used to provide noise free crosses with slow moving average, a bad practice in my opinion due to the ability low lag filters have to overshoot/undershoot, more interesting use cases might be to use the qlsma as input for other indicators.
On The Code
Some of you might know that i posted a "quadratic regression" indicator long ago, the original calculations was coming from a forum, but because the calculation was ugly as hell as well as extra inefficient (dogfood level) i had to do something about it, the name was also terribly misleading.
We can see in the code that we make heavy use of the variance and covariance, both estimated with :
VAR(x) = SMA(x^2) - SMA(x)^2
COV(x,y) = SMA(xy) - SMA(x)SMA(y)
Those elements are then combined, we can easily recognize the intercept element c , who don't change much from the classical lsma.
As Digital Filter
The frequency response of the qlsma is similar to the one of the lsma, those filters amplify certain frequencies in the passband, and have ripples in the stop band. There is something interesting about those filters, first using higher degrees allow to greater boost of the frequencies in the passband, which result in greater over/under shoots. Another funny thing is that the peak/valley of the ripples is equal the peak or valley in the ripples of another lsma of different degree.
The transient response of those filters, that is impulse response, step response...etc is related to the degree of the polynomial used, therefore lets denote a lsma of degree p : lsma(p) , the impulse response of lsma(p) is a polynomial of degree p, and the step response is simple a polynomial of order p+1.
This is why it was more interesting to estimate the qlsma using convolution, however we can no longer forecast future values.
Conclusion
I proposed a more usable quadratic least squares moving average, with more options, as well as a cleaner and more efficient code. The process of shrinking the original code is made easier when you know about the estimations of both variance and covariance.
I hope the proposed indicator/calculation is useful.
Thx for reading !
Scripting Tutorial 9 - TManyMA Strategy - Long Market Order OnlyThis script is for a triple moving average strategy where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources, lookback periods and resolutions.
Features:
- 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources, resolutions and the ability to disable each individually
- Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA )
- Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA.
- Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market.
- To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked to my profile.
- Ribbons added and on by default. Optional setting to disable the ribbons. 5 ribbons between MA1 and MA2 and another 5 between MA2 and MA3.
- Ribbons are alpha-color coded based on their relation to their default MAs.
- Ribbons are only visible between MAs if the MAs being compared share the same Type, Resolution, and Source because there is no way to consolidate those three in a simple manner.
- Ribbon values are calculated based on calculated MA Periods between the MAs.
- Converted the existing study into a strategy
- Strategy only enters long positions with a market order when MA crossovers occur
- Strategy exits positions when crossunders occur
- Trades 100% of the equity with one order/position by default
- Ability to disable trading certain crosses with input checks
This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
*** PLEASE NOTE - THIS STRATEGY IS MEANT FOR LEARNING PURPOSES. DEPENDING ON IT'S CONFIGURATION IT MAY OR MAY NOT BE USEFUL FOR ACTUAL TRADING. THE STRATEGY IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ***
Scripting Tutorial 8 - Triple Many Moving Averages RibbonsThis script is for a triple moving average indicator where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources, lookback periods and resolutions.
Features:
- 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources, resolutions and the ability to disable each individually
- Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA )
- Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA.
- Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market.
- To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked to my profile.
- Ribbons added and on by default. Optional setting to disable the ribbons. 5 ribbons between MA1 and MA2 and another 5 between MA2 and MA3.
- Ribbons are alpha-color coded based on their relation to their default MAs.
- Ribbons are only visible between MAs if the MAs being compared share the same Type, Resolution, and Source because there is no way to consolidate those three in a simple manner.
- Ribbon values are calculated based on calculated MA Periods between the MAs.
This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
EURUSD 5 Minute Binary Strategy by Emiliano Mesa 73% Win RatioEURUSD Binary Strategy 73% Win Ratio.
-----Free 5 Day Trial-----
¿How it works?
This is a binary indicator, meaning it may be only
used for EURUSD options. Its use is simple:
1) Wait for the blue background to appear, this
means a possible trade may be upcoming
2) Wait for the purple background to appear, this
is our entry. And enter in the suggested direction
by the arrows after the close of the bar
3) Establish your expiration bar the # of
bars missing in the white area (which are 3 bars
per area) + 1 bar of the yellow area
for instance:
- Each background color both blue and yellow, have
the same ammount of bars in between (3), and so
does the white space between them, each bar is 5
minutes. In this case we are given an entry 1 bar
later, so 5 miutes inside our whitespace. Saying
so there are 2 bars left inside our white area, plus
one yellow bar, which means our expiration time
is 15 minutes since Entry to exit!
Wohooo! PROFIT!
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InfoPanel Divergence IndicatorThis panel spots divergences of some well knonw indicators. It may be usefull because you have all indicators in one panel only.
Also, you can check on chart which indicator gives better results of each pair on stock or index or crypto.
TO DO: to add custom indicators.
thanks to: RicardoSantos for his script of panel coding
Tradingview scripts
Other members of TV community (I cannot remember the source and inspiration of all snipets)
Please use comment section for any feedback.
Scripting Tutorial 6 - Triple Many Moving Averages ForecastingThis script is for a triple moving average indicator where the user can select from different types of moving averages, price sources and lookback periods.
Features:
- 3 Moving Averages with variable MA types, periods, price sources and ability to disable each individually
- Crossovers are plotted on the chart with detailed information regarding the crossover (Ex: 50 SMA crossed over 200 SMA )
- Forecasting available for all three MAs. MA values are forecasted 5 values out and plotted as if a continuation to the MA.
- Forecast bias also applies to all forecasting. Bias means we can forecast based on an anticipated bullish, bearish or neutral direction in the market.
- To understand bias, please read the source code, or if you can't read the code just send me a message on here or Twitter. Twitter should be linked on my profile.
This script is meant as an educational script with well-formatted styling, and references for specific functions.
Forecasting - Drift MethodIntroduction
Nothing fancy in terms of code, take this post as an educational post where i provide information rather than an useful tool.
Time-Series Forecasting And The Drift Method
In time-series analysis one can use many many forecasting methods, some share similarities but they can all by classified in groups and sub-groups, the drift method is a forecasting method that unlike averages/naive methods does not have a constant (flat) forecast, instead the drift method can increase or decrease over time, this is why its a great method when it comes to forecasting linear trends.
Basically a drift forecast is like a linear extrapolation, first you take the first and last point of your data and draw a line between those points, extend this line into the future and you have a forecast, thats pretty much it.
One of the advantage of this method is first its simplicity, everyone could do it by hand without any mathematical calculations, then its ability to be non-conservative, conservative methods involve methods that fit the data very well such as linear/non-linear regression that best fit a curve to the data using the method of least-squares, those methods take into consideration all the data points, however the drift method only care about the first and last point.
Understanding Bias And Variance
In order to follow with the ability of methods to be non-conservative i want to introduce the concept of bias and variance, which are essentials in time-series analysis and machine learning.
First lets talk about training a model, when forecasting a time-series we can divide our data set in two, the first part being the training set and the second one the testing set. In the training set we fit a model to the training data, for example :
We use 200 data points, we split this set in two sets, the first one is for training which is in blue, and the other one for testing which is in green.
Basically the Bias is related to how well a forecasting model fit the training set, while the variance is related to how well the model fit the testing set. In our case we can see that the drift line does not fit the training set very well, it is then said to have high bias. If we check the testing set :
We can see that it does not fit the testing set very well, so the model is said to have high variance. It can be better to talk of bias and variance when using regression, but i think you get it. This is an important concept in machine learning, you'll often see the term "overfitting" which relate to a model fitting the training set really well, those models have a low to no bias, however when it comes to testing they don't fit well at all, they have high variance.
Conclusion On The Drift Method
The drift method is good at forecasting linear trends, and thats all...you see, when forecasting financial data you need models that are able to capture the complexity of the price structure as well as being robust to noise and outliers, the drift method isn't able to capture such complexity, its not a super smart method, same goes for linear regression. This is why more peoples are switching to more advanced models such a neural networks that can sometimes capture such complexity and return decent results.
So this method might not be the best but if you like lines then here you go.
Forecast 7 SMA's 6 periodsForecast 7 SMA's 6 periods
This script is an upgrade of the existing Triple MA Forecast from Yatrader2
To allow the user to display 7 different SMAs and look 6 candles ahead
Default Value
8 SMA
13 SMA
20 SMA
50 SMA
100 SMA
128 SMA
200 SMA
Note:
Best to use on high timeframe, if on low timeframe change the forecast maximum to lower
This was made to forecast the 20 SMA on weekly timeframe on the upcomming Bitcoin price
Forecast 7 EMA's 6 periodsForecast 7 EMA's 6 periods
This script is an upgrade of the existing Triple MA Forecast from Yatrader2
To allow the user to display 7 different EMAs and look 6 candles ahead
Default Value
8 ema
13 ema
21 ema
55 ema
100 ema
128 ema
200 ema
Note:
Best to use on high timeframe, if on low timeframe change the forecast maximum to lower
This was made to forecast the 21 ema on weekly timeframe on the upcomming Bitcoin price
Forecast Oscillator & Point of ForceThis is a scaled version of the Forecast Oscillator, paired with a Point of Force Indicator, my modification of an indicator, whose original name and developer happened to be missing on my notes, so my regards to the author).
Point of force is a spot from where price action will dynamically evolve in the same direction or soon reverse and pursue that reversed path. It may be an indication of a turning point or entry point to consider going long/short and should be use together with a background oscillator showing a prevailing local trend.
Forecast Oscillator (ps4)This is a scaled version of a Forecast Oscillator, which may be used as a standalone indicator or as a filter. Scaling allows to reduce data to a standard interval, say, 0..1 or -1..1. Oftentimes, it also makes data more contrastive.
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & Chande Forecast Oscillator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The Chande Forecast Oscillator developed by Tushar Chande The Forecast
Oscillator plots the percentage difference between the closing price and
the n-period linear regression forecasted price. The oscillator is above
zero when the forecast price is greater than the closing price and less
than zero if it is below.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
Combo Strategy 123 Reversal & Chande Forecast Oscillator This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
The Chande Forecast Oscillator developed by Tushar Chande The Forecast
Oscillator plots the percentage difference between the closing price and
the n-period linear regression forecasted price. The oscillator is above
zero when the forecast price is greater than the closing price and less
than zero if it is below.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
